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The Purple Wedding Conspiracy (long, long, long, long post)


John Suburbs

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A short time ago, I got into a rather heated discussion on these boards regarding my admittedly radical theory about the Purple Wedding. What turned into a simple reply to a fairly straightforward post soon degenerated into endless back-and-forth regarding who said what, and who did what and where and when and why and how.



So now I am going to attempt to lay out my entire theory for all board members to consider. This is a long post (more than 5,000 words) but it is necessary because there are so many moving parts and it requires the re-examination of some firm beliefs regarding the PW and the mindsets and world views of the principal players. I’m not the first one to voice this theory, but I hope I have at least provided a thorough examination of it.



As well, I lay it out not as proof, or as fact, but merely as a possibility that should be considered by any serious reader of ASOIAF. Also, I can draw no conclusions about the TV show at this point, which differs from the book in a number of key ways, except to say that book canon and show canon are now so wildly divergent that it is very difficult to square one with the other.



My only other request is that you please read the entire post first before responding to make sure your attempt at the debunking of one point is not actually covered elsewhere. As I said, there are many moving parts and cross currents and it is very difficult to completely cover all angles in a single sentence, or a single paragraph.



So for the book, then, my contention is that the poison at the Purple Wedding was not in the wine, but in the pie, and the target for the assassination was not Joffrey, but Tyrion.



In order to reach this conclusion, we have to examine not only the poison itself, but the personal traits and motivations behind the two main conspirators: The Queen of Thorns and Littlefinger.



So let’s begin by examining the poison to see if we can deduce how it could have wound up in the pie.



Part I: The Poison and the Poisonings



The first time we see or hear about the Strangler is in Master Cressen’s solar in the prologue to CoK. Master Cressen retrieves a small glass vial, no larger than his little finger (nice touch, there, George). Inside are a dozen crystals, “no larger than seeds.” Now, ‘seeds’ is a vague description – I mean, avocado seeds can be bigger than ping pong balls – but I think it’s safe to assume they are roughly the size of apple or orange seeds, considering there are twelve in the vial. The crystals are shiny and of a very purple color.



We are also told that they are derived from the leaves of a plant that grows in the Jade Sea, which are aged, soaked in lime juice and sugar water and mixed with rare spices from the Summer Isles. Afterward, the resulting potion is mixed with ash in order to crystalize. It is a long and difficult process, known only to select alchemists in Lys, among the faceless Men and in the Citadel. When “dissolved in wine” – and this is a key phrase that we’ll discuss further in a moment – the poison causes the muscles of the throat to constrict, cutting off the windpipe and leaving the victim with a purple face that makes it appear as if they had simply choked.



The first glimpse of the Strangler in action, of course, is Maester Cressen himself when he tries to poison Melisandre at the end of the CoK prologue. He reaches into his sleeve and pulls out “a hard flake of crystal” and drops it into Davos’ wine cup, which is “half full of sour red.” He then proposes the toast with Melisandre, and she drinks first.



Now, let’s look at exactly what happens next: Cressen drinks the wine and then he “let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor.” Mel says, “He does have power here, my lord (meaning her red god). And fire cleanses.” Cressen ties to speak but cannot because the poison is already closing his throat, and then he dies.



Now, I invite you to work it out in hour head, or get a timer if you like, to see how long it took for the Strangler to take effect. I give Cressen perhaps three seconds to drain the cup, and then another two to drop the glass (and I think I’m being generous here). I count five seconds, maybe seven, for Mel’s statement. We are not told that any time has elapsed between of these events – they did not stare at each other balefully, no sound descriptions of wind or waves or animal cries – so I can only conclude that they all occurred one after the other. At most then, I surmise the Strangler began to take effect in 12 seconds or less in Maester Cressen’s case.



Now, let’s jump to Joffrey and the wedding:



There is an entire sequence of events that leads up to the poisoning, but I will try my best to stick to the salient facts.



First, the hairnet. As described by Sansa in her last regular PoV in CoK (not the teaser with Lady O, but when Ser Dontos informs her of the Lannister victory at KL), the hairnet is of “fine-spun silver, with strands so thin and delicate the net seemed to weigh no more than a breath of air…” Small gems are set at each strand crossing, which Dontos says are “Black amethysts from Assai.” The image I get, then, is near-gossamer strings of silver, anchored by gems no larger than ¼-carat diamonds, ½-carat at best. Any larger, and she would have looked pretty silly.



Then we can all agree that Lady O palms the poison crystal when she adjusts the hairnet at the beginning of the feast.



Now, let’s run through the sequence of events from the last point that Joffrey drinks the wine but does not die. This was after the dwarf show, after Tyrion was doused with wine from the chalice and Alaric of Eysen is just about to sing. Lady O is standing just behind Tyrion’s place at the table and Ser Garlan is seated right next to him. Joffrey kicks the chalice under the table, Tyrion retrieves it and fills it three-quarters full. Joffrey grabs the cup, drinks deep and sets it on the table, which would place it at or near Tyrion’s and Garlen’s position.



Then we have the entire pie-cutting episode, so we know the poison had not made it into the wine at that point or else Joffrey would be dead already. The prevailing theory is that Lady O or Ser Garlen poisoned the wine as the cup sat on the table, and I will examine that theory more closely later in the post, but I think we can cast serious doubt on that possibility based on what happens next:



The big pie is brought out and Joffrey and Margaery meet at the bottom of the dais for the cutting. The pigeons fly out and, a serving man places a slice of pie before Tyrion and puts a dab of lemon cream on it. As Tyrion and Sansa rise to make their exit, Joffrey orders his new cupbearer (Tyrion) to serve him his wine, which, according to the wine theory should be good and poisoned by now.



Tyrion has to climb back into his chair to reach the chalice, and then hands it to Joffrey who yanks it from his hand and drinks “long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple (!! more on this in a moment) down his chin.“



Margaery says: “My lord, we should return to our places, Lord Buckler wants to toast us.”



Joffrey says: “My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.”



He then jams his hand into Tyrion’s pie, says “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie” and stuffs the pie into his mouth. “See, it’s good.”



Then he spits out a few flakes, coughs and grabs another fistful. “Dry, though. Needs washing down.”



He then takes a swallow of wine and coughs again, “more violently.”



Maergery looks concerned, says “Your Grace”



Joff is coughing regularly now. “It’s, kof, the pie, noth – kof, pie.”



He tries to take another drink of wine, but it all comes spewing back out – I assume back into the chalice because he is in the act of drinking – says “I can’t, I can’t…”, drops the chalice and “dark red wine” goes running across the dais. The rest is history.



Now, notice first of all how much time has elapsed between Joffrey’s first drink of the supposedly poisoned wine and the first violent cough. With Cressen, we had a cup-dropping and a single sentence from Melisandre before Cressen was unable to speak. With Joffrey, we have a much longer, deeper drink initially, then a statement from Margaery, a statement from Joff, a hand in the pie and then into his mouth, more words from Joff, and another drink of wine. I’m thinking 15, maybe 20 seconds for all this to play out.



Could the slower reaction be due to the poison being more diluted in the large chalice vs. Cressen’s (actually Davos’) smaller cup? Perhaps, but remember, Joffrey had already drained a good portion of the goblet, which Tyrion had filled “three-quarters full” before the pie cutting, so the goblet could be half-empty or more by now. (Hold off on your comments, because I will get back to the size of the chalice again in a moment).



And then isn’t it curious that 1) Joffrey notes that the pie is dry – the poison already absorbing the moisture in the pie as part of the dissolution process, perhaps? And 2), the real violent coughing doesn’t occur until after Joffrey adds wine to the mixture in his mouth, which would jibe with the notion that the poison dissolves in wine and only in wine, or that some component of the wine – the alcohol or the tannins, perhaps – is necessary to activate the poison. Plus we now have a means for Joffrey to get a highly concentrated dose of the Strangler right down his throat.



Others may note that after the supposed poisoning of the chalice on the table, but before Joff eats the pie, the wine is running purple down is throat. This certainly could be due to the presence of the Strangler, but I submit it may, repeat may, just be the normal appearance of a thin dribble of wine viewed against pale white skin. Plus there is the observation after Joff drops the chalice that the wine, a larger amount of it now, is “dark red.”



At the end of the scene, Tyrion looks into the chalice and sees a “half-inch of deep purple wine” at the bottom, which could very well be poisoned wine at this point because of the cough that spewed wine back into the cup.



Intriguing this may be, but it is certainly not a slam dunk. But I said I would reexamine the chalice, and here it is:



The chalice is described as “three feet tall, with two ornate curved handles and seven faces glittering with gemstones.” This is rather vague regarding the size of each component of the chalice, but I can easily see a base of about four inches, perhaps a foot-and-a-half of stem, and then a foot or so of actual cup. I am certain it is not three feet of solid gold cup with no stem because 1) it would be too heavy to lift, and 2) it would hold four or five liters of wine, which is an absurd amount to give to a couple at their wedding feast.



So now we have the three-foot chalice sitting in front of Tyrion’s seat at the high table while the pie-cutting ceremony is taking place. Everyone is in their seats: Tyrion, Sansa, Lord Garlen and his wife Lady Leonette and perhaps a dozen other lords and ladies between Tyrion and the head table where Joff and Margaery’s chairs are.



So right away, I eliminate the QoT as the poisoner because she is just too short – five feet or so. Perhaps she could reach the rim, but she couldn’t do it without anyone noticing, especially since Tyrion is right there and it’s his PoV that we’re in. Ser Garlen might be able to pull it off, particularly as Tyrion is climbing back into his chair, but not without a long arm reach or even standing up, and remember, there are dozens of other guests sitting at the table, plus another 200 hundred or so in the hall. For anyone who thinks this could be done with a simple sleight-of-hand, go to your closet, get out a yardstick and stand it straight up on your kitchen or dining table, and then imagine reaching over the top from a sitting position.



So I ask you, when and how could the wine chalice on the table have possibly been poisoned with the entire wedding party in their seats watching the pie-cutting taking place on center stage?



Tyrion’s pie, on the other hand, is a much simpler matter, particularly when Tyrion and Sansa rise to make their exit. Easy for the QoT, provided she is still standing right there, although she may have returned to her seat for the pie-cutting and we have no information as to her movements after she makes her joke about the Reynes of Castamere. Easier still for Ser Garlan once both Tyrion’s and Sansa’s backs are turned.



Still, some may insist that all this is impossible because the Strangler can only dissolve in wine, not pie, or it would have turned the entire piece purple or some other reason. But the simple fact is we don’t have detailed knowledge of the Strangler and all its properties. If there is further information out there, please site the source. Plus, remember that wine was in fact present in Joffrey’s mouth after he ate the pie, and at no time did he stop and inspect the pie for color or any other reason – he just grabbed a handful (two handfuls, actually) and shoved it into his gob.



So now that we’ve thoroughly examined the poison and the two poisonings, the question becomes: why? Why Tyrion and not Joffrey? If you have already thrown your hands up in annoyance at the theory so far, don’t bother reading further because it delves into attitudes, personalities and motives of the key plotters, and therefore relies on even more speculation.



Part II: The Plot and the Plotters


I’ll start with Littlefinger because he is easier to explain.



First off, Littlefinger has had it in for Tyrion since GoT and the Valyrian steel dagger job. Once he is appointed Hand of the King, Tyrion is in a good position to uncover all of Littlefinger’s shady dealings with the crown’s gold, and that risk increases substantially when he is named Master of Coin. If Tyrion learns that maybe half of the six million gold dragons the crown owes is in Littlefinger’s pockets, it’s bye-bye Harrenhall, bye-bye Vale and the complete unravelling of all he’s accomplished so far and everything he wants in the future.



On the flip side, Littlefinger has no compelling reason to get rid of Joffrey at this point because Joffrey is exactly the kind of king he needs: vain, foolish and completely clueless as to the long- or even short-term consequences of his actions. Ned Stark’s execution was intended to provide a brief show for the crowd, but it immediately inflamed the entire north to make war on Tywin’s armies in the Riverlands. By the time of the Purple Wedding, the only thing that killing Joffrey accomplishes for Littlefinger is to shift power back to a much more serious and capable player, Lord Tywin.



The Queen of Thorns’ motives are a little trickier to discern. For this, we have to step back a moment and try to imagine her world view:



For many years, practically her entire adult life in fact, House Lannister was a large, powerful, but mostly benign presence just north of the Reach. By all accounts, Lord Tytos is an amiable man who simply wants peace, prosperity and steadily flowing rivers of gold coming from his mines.



His son Tywin, however, is very different. A childhood friend of Prince Aerys (the future Mad King), Tywin is cold, calculating and ruthless – qualities that serve him well when Aerys ascends the throne and Tywin serves the next 20 years as HotK. I’m not sure exactly when Tywin resigned as Hand, but it must have been before Tytos died, because otherwise he would have been forced to resign earlier to become Lord of Casterly Rock.



In any event, Tytos dies, Tywin steps in and immediately makes it known that there’s a new sheriff in town. He starts squeezing his bannermen to repay the loans they had taken out. Those that resist, like the Reynes and the Tarbecks, are not merely censured, but exterminated, with Tywin storming their castles and putting every living soul he can find to the sword – even the washerwomen and livery boys who have no influence whatsoever regarding the doings of their lord. To someone like Lady Olenna – who is the real power in Highgarden, never doubt that for a moment – this is deeply troubling because she has always espoused a firm but gentle approach to lesser houses and the small folk as a means of building loyalty. But since all of this is happening in the Westerlands, there’s not much she can do about it.



Then comes Robert’s Rebellion, which Tywin stays out of until the very end. After Rhaegar is slain on the Trident, he gathers his forces and heads toward Kings Landing. Pycelle convinces Aerys that Tywin is here to rescue him, and Aerys opens the gates. Then, despite the fact that there was no fighting in order to break into the city and he could have easily taken over the Gold Cloaks and the Kings Guard before placing the king in irons, Tywin Lannister chooses instead to sack the city. In the process, Aerys is killed by Jaime and Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon are slaughtered by the Mountain. Again, Lady O must have been appalled. Sure, cities get sacked during war and it’s a terrible thing, but this time it is completely unnecessary because the city gates had already been thrown wide open.



Now, we flash forward to the War of the Five Kings. Tyrion is taken prisoner by Catelyn Stark and Tywin immediately calls his banners and invades the Riverlands, ruled by her father, Hoster Tully. In short order, though, word flows south that this is no ordinary invasion. Tywin’s men are systematically destroying the land. Villages are burned to the ground. Crops are torched. Men, women and children are indiscriminately tortured and killed and left to rot on roads and in ditches. This is real Shermanesque total war – something that hasn’t been seen in Westeros since the Dance of the Dragons. If this were happening today, no one would be paying any attention to what the boy king is doing in the capital because all eyes would be focused on the holocaust taking place in the Riverlands. Tywin Lannister is Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot rolled into one. If you doubt this, go back and reread Jaime’s description of things as he’s heading south from Harrenhall and what Arya sees when she’s with the Brotherhood and the Hound. At the beginning of aCoK, Catelyn concludes that Tywin Lannister is the most dangerous player in the game. It’s a safe bet that Lady Olenna has reached the same conclusion.



Still, this does not explain why Lady O would conclude that it was Tyrion who had to go, rather than Joffrey. Both are Lannisters, so if the intent is to hurt Tywin, and protect Margaery in the bargain, wouldn’t the removal of his grandson the king be a more devastating blow than removal of his dwarf son?



To work this out, we have to look at the sequence of events that started with the formation of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance following the death of Renly and culminating at the PW. With nearly four-fifths of their former host now fighting for Stannis, the Tyrells need swords and they need them fast. The last thing Lady O wants is to climb into bed with the butcher of Casterly Rock, but Littlefinger is there to point out that 1) she has no choice because all the other armies in the field are now so much bigger than hers, and 2) Margaery can still be queen through Joffrey. I suspect as an added inducement, Littlefinger starts laying out the rudimentary framework as to how this can be leveraged for the future destruction of House Lannister.



Littlefinger then works his Kissinger-style shuttle diplomacy with Lord Tywin, and the Lannisters and Tyrells are able to join their respective armies at the Blackwater just in time to sail to the capital on the Tyrell’s river boats to crush Stannis before he takes King’s Landing. It was, indeed, a close one. Right after the battle, Ser Dontos presents Sansa with the hairnet, which more than likely came from Littlefinger with absolutely no Tyrell involvement at all.



Now you have Lord Tywin, Lord Mace, Lady Olenna, Littlefinger, Tyrion et al in the capital, with Littlefinger departing early in SoS to woo Lysa Arryn in the Vale. He is not seen again until Sansa meets up with him on the boat after the wedding.



At this point, it does not appear that the Tyrells are involved in any assassination plots. Littlefinger has the poison in place and he is most likely planning to use it somehow to give cover for Sansa’s escape. As Tyrion noted to Cersei once: “Schemes are like fruit. They require a certain ripening.” Again, he has Tyrion in his sites, but it’s too early to connect all the pieces yet. In the meantime, Lady O and Margaery are trying to wed Sansa to Willas Tyrell – a plan that goes awry when Sansa tells Ser Dontos, Ser Dontos tells Littlefinger and Littlefinger tells Tywin.



So while the Tyrells have no compelling reason to off Tyrion at this stage, neither do they need Joffrey dead either. That may come as a shock to many readers, but I think it can be supported by the following line of reasoning:



The simple fact is, that as far as kings go, Joffrey is not that bad – not in lady Olenna’s eyes, at least. Remember, this is a woman who lived through the Mad King years, when noble lords and ladies were getting wildfire poured down their throats, when Rickard Stark was strung up in the throne room, roasting over a huge bonfire. When his son Brandon tried to help him, an elaborate series of chains and pulleys caused both men to die horribly. By contrast, all Joffrey has done is subject Sansa to a public beating and feather a few rioters with his crossbow. Lady O undoubtedly has some concerns about Joffrey, by virtue of the tales that Littlefinger’s men were spreading at Bitterbridge and Sansa’s first-hand account, but her reaction in Sansa’s PoV to these tales is nothing more than: “Ah, that’s a pity.”



Likewise, Margaery herself is not overly concerned. “Loras will protect me,” she tells Sansa. And indeed, as the wedding draws closer, Joffrey not only fails to express any hostile intent toward Margaery, but in fact seems very into her. After all, she’s hot, she’s smart, she puffs up his ego at every chance, and she comports herself in a very queenly and regal manner. Much different from the stupid, and I mean stupid, things that Sansa is always saying to Joffrey – at his name day celebration, Marsella’s departure etc. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that Margaery is probably the only person in Kings Landing that Joffrey does not despise. Several times during the wedding feast, he hugs her, kisses, her, twirls her around the room – clearly he is ecstatic at marrying this beauty rather than drab, pale, mopey Sansa.



Still, it is commonly believed that Lady O sought to kill Joffrey because she was afraid of what he might do in the future. This is a reasonable assumption until you consider the possibility that Lady Olenna is not like your typical 21st Century grandma. These days, the safety and happiness of our children and grandchildren are of paramount importance. This is true of feudal societies too, but nevertheless, it was common practice for noble houses to place their children in substantial jeopardy by either fostering them at one another’s house or subjecting to unhappy or even dangerous marriages for purely political reasons. If two lords had exchanged children as a means of keeping the peace and for whatever reason that peace is broken, then both children are likely to suffer brutal deaths regardless of how much they are loved. The good of the house comes before the personal desires of the individual and I think both Lady Olenna and Lady Margaery know the score full well in the time leading up to the wedding. If Lady Olenna had placed the safety of her daughter before the interests of her house, she never would have agreed to the marriage way back before any murder plotting had gotten underway.



In the same vein, the benefits to House Tyrell of a royal wedding, even to a shit like Joffrey, are substantial: a member of their family in a high position in the capital, essentially a Queen displacing a Queen Mother. As well a royal heir to cement the Tyrell line to the ruling dynasty.



So when viewed from the eyes of a leader of a noble house – a player like Lady Olenna and not a piece like Cersei – it becomes clear that there is much more to be gained by keeping Joffrey alive than killing him, particularly if the motive is nothing more than fear that he may turn on Margaery at some point. Lady Olenna is not a fearful woman and she would not gamble with such enormous stakes on just a hunch that maybe, down the road, bad things might happen.



What are the stakes that Lady Olenna is playing here? Everything, literally everything. If Tywin Lannister was willing to completely destroy a noble house like the Reynes simply because the lord boasted that he was more powerful than Casterly Rock, what do you think he would do in response to an attempt on his grandson’s life? He would first arrest the entire Tyrell family at King’s Landing, plus all their bannermen, and put them to the question. Then he would form up his army and let them loose on the now leaderless Tyrell host outside the capital. Then he would march on Highgarden, smash his way through the gates and systematically execute every man, woman and child on the grounds. In the end, the 10,000-year Tyrell line (dating all the way back to Garth the Green in the Age of Heroes) would be over in a single night, never to return.



I ask you, if you were the Queen of Thorns with that much at stake, would you risk it all on you or Garlen’s ability to drop a crystal into a three-foot wine chalice that is sitting plain as day on the high table in front of 200 people without being seen? But there are even more problems with this plan, as we’ll see in a moment.



For now, let’s get back to the timeline. So Littlefinger is off to the Vale and the plan to marry Willas is scrubbed. Out of the blue comes news of the Red Wedding. Suddenly, Robb Stark is dead, with no issue that anyone is aware of. Combine that with Arya, Bran and Rickon presumed dead, and Sansa becomes the last remaining child of Eddard Stark.



The next thing the Tyrells know, Sansa is married to Tyrion. However much this may upset Sansa, it is devastating to Lady Olenna. Sansa is now the key to the north. Tywin, Roose Bolton, the Ironmen or anyone else may be able to invade the north, topple holdfasts and castles, take hostages or even kill nobles, but they will never gain the allegiance of the northmen unless they can produce a legitimate Stark heir to occupy the seat in Winterfell. “There must always be a Stark in Winterfell” is not just a saying, it is a code for the entire north. Sansa is the only way to do that now.



So for Lady Olenna, who was already alarmed at Tywin’s power as Lord of the Westerlands, she now faces the prospect of him gaining control, either outright or through the Frey/Bolton alliance, all of the Riverlands, the Neck and the entire north. That places more than half the kingdom under his direct control. If that doesn’t lead to an outright invasion and subjugation of House Tyrell and the Reach at some point, it most certainly allows Tywin to dictate the terms of their relationship.



This is why Tyrion has to go, and he has to go now – before he mans up and puts a baby in Sansa’s belly.



This is when Littlefinger probably approached Lady Olenna with the plan to kill Tyrion. Sure, he probably spent some time in the Vale, but he could easily have crept back into KL disguised as a Tyrell guard or something to keep Varys in the dark and have a face-to-face with Lady O. He explains to her about the hairnet, perhaps he even has a spare so she could practice the gem removal technique, and he may or may not have told her about the second part of the plan, which is to spirit Sansa out of King’s Landing. I’m leaning toward the former, because Lady O is smart enough to realize that leaving Sansa in Tywin’s hands simply means she will be married to another Lannister before too long – one that won’t hesitate to knock her up.



Part III: Loose Ends



Is all this too confusing? Too convoluted? Well, this is the way most conspiracies go. Others have tried to argue that the wine theory makes much more sense because it went off without a hitch and resulted in a win-win-win for everybody: Joffrey dead and Margaery safe, Tyrion accused and soon to be executed, and Sansa secure in the Vale. But if the intent was to poison the wine, was it as clear-cut a plan as hindsight would have us believe? I think not.



First of all, I will concede that Littlefinger is a very smart man who reads people very well and can make very informed guesses as to what they will do in given circumstances. But there is no way I can believe that he could have predicted the convoluted series of events that led to the chalice being right where it was at just the right time in order to deploy the poison, not unless he is imbued with magical powers of foresight like Lady Melisandre or the Ghost at High Heart.



It has been suggested that Littlefinger could easily have predicted the confrontation between Tyrion and Joffrey following the dwarf show, which I readily admit. And I can also give him credit for anticipating that it will somehow involve the chalice and in the end Cersei will see what she wants to see in order to finger Tyrion. But to know beforehand that the chalice would wind up right in front of Ser Garlen where he could somehow drop the crystal in without anyone seeing? Now we’re pushing it. What about the fact that Tyrion would be left holding the chalice when Cersei spots him and voices the accusation? It could have just as easily gone down that Tyrion and Sansa were able to quietly slip away following the pie cutting, leaving them with no scapegoat and only Ser Garlen with any opportunity to poison the wine.



Then there is the enormous risk the Margaery would have had to drink from the chalice as well. “Come my love, Lord Buckley wants to toast us.” If Joffrey had not turned around at that moment and started up with Tyrion again, chivalry would most like have dictated that Margaery drink from the chalice first. If you still believe that Lady Olenna had Margaery’s safety first and foremost in her mind, would she have taken a risk like that? If you believe Margaery knew the wine was poisoned at this point, why is she drawing attention to the proffered toast?



It has also been suggested that only a fool would poison a serving of food that deep into a feast with 77 courses. I think they were at course 40 or so when everything went down. That had me stumped for a while until I realized that this was no ordinary course. This was the Wedding Pie. It is equivalent to our Wedding Cake in that it is wheeled out to great fanfare, the bride and groom make a big show of cutting the first slice, and then it is divvied up among the guests. In this case, I doubt the actual ceremonial pie was the one they served, considering it had live birds squirming around inside. I certainly wouldn’t eat it. Plus, Tyrion’s piece is served almost immediately, and Joffrey says “It’s bad luck not to eat the pie.” Lady Olenna and Littlefinger had every reason to think Tyrion would eat at least one bite of pie, and that it would be the pointed end that would make the easies target for the crystal. No one starts eating pie from the crust side.



Even if you do believe that Littlefinger could foresee all of this happening, I’m having a hard time imagining him explaining all this to Lady Olenna with the assurance: “Trust me. I know these people and I know exactly what they are going to do.” Remember, Littlefinger is safe aboard his boat in the harbor while nearly the entire Tyrell family is trapped in the Red Keep.



Still others point to Littlefinger’s conversations with Sansa on the boat and in the Vale as proof he planned it all along. I say hogwash. Note that it is Sansa who first mentions that Joffrey is dead and Tyrion is arrested, so even if Littlefinger hadn’t put two-and-two together by the droning of the church bell, which may have been too faint to hear out in the bay, he still manages to say what he would have said all along: “Widowhood will become you, my lady.” For Littlefinger to admit to Sansa that his plan had gone awry would mean he would have to admit that she has now been framed for the king’s murder, but don’t worry, sweetling, everything is under control.



I said I would bring up the show in relation to all this, so here is what I have:



First, as I mentioned, the show is starting to differ so wildly from the book that it is getting very difficult to explain one through the other. I will note, however, that on the show, when Tyrion fills Joff’s goblet the last time, he pours wine from the decanter that was placed in front of his (Tyrion’s) seat. But the goblet then sits at the corner of the high table all through the pie cutting with Lady Olenna sitting right there. She could have easily knocked it over with an air of “what a silly, old woman I am.”



Still, on the show, we do have Littlefinger explaining to Sansa that she is the chief suspect and then turning that around by suggesting that she must stay with him or else she will be caught and executed.



As I said, I cannot explain the show, other than to surmise that at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter in either the book or the show what people’s intents were, what they planned, how things were done or why. The fact remains: Joffrey is dead, Margaery is betrothed to Tommen and Sansa is in the Vale. All related story arcs will proceed from that point.



This also squares us up with GR’s recent statements to the press regarding killing the king and making it look like an accident. He is speaking to show watchers, not book readers.



And for the question that inevitably comes up whenever I voice my theory on these boards: “Where is your proof?” I can only respond:



Alas my lords and ladies, I have no proof. Only whispers.



And in the end, I turn it back on the skeptics: Is there anyone out there who can disprove this theory, not with opinions regarding the poison or the mindsets of the key players, but with incontrovertible facts and logic?








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And in the end, I turn it back on the skeptics: Is there anyone out there who can disprove this theory, not with opinions regarding the poison or the mindsets of the key players, but with incontrovertible facts and logic?

Are we allowed to start from the factual errors?

For one thing, your whole bit about Tywin's reputation is full of little errors. Lord Reyne didn't just boast that he had more power than the Lannisters - he and the Tarbecks rose in open rebellion against them. Tywin took it upon himself to crush that rebellion and did it - he was around 18 at the time. He became Hand of the King in 262, at 20, and Lord of Casterly Rock at 25, upon his father's death in 267. So much for the timeline.

Being Hand of the King doesn't preclude a person from being a Lord of his lands. In fact, Ned, while holding the office, always styles himself both Lord of Winterfell and Hand of the King. But that is hardly relevant to your theory, so let's move on.

Tywin didn't burn the Riverlands until after the Starks entered the war and Jaime was captured. Sure, he sent Gregor to pillage and burn in order to lure Ned out, but that's nothing compared to the full-scale destruction he unleashed after the Whispering Wood.

Edit: Oh, and Tywin served (and very well at that) as Hand of the King for nearly 20 years.

Now to the actual poisoning.

I really only have one question. How did whoever deployed the Strangler make it dissolve into a pie? Keep in mind that we're talking about a hard crystal. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the poison was deployed after the pie was served. How could they be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion) wouldn't see the crystal, or even chew on it and break a tooth?

I think the point about it dissolving into wine is made to show that it has to be deployed in a liquid - and also that it has a strong colour, which can be hidden in the wine.

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First and foremost, compliments for the effort and post's length :bow:



I don't have much time now, so I'll just briefly comment to several key problems I think your theory has



1) If I understood correctly, you suggest that Olenns and LF put strangler in the pie in order to poison Tyrion and Tyrion only. So how could they have known Tyrion would be the first one to eat the pie? Wouldn't, by protocol, royal couple be first ones to taste it? If your aim is to kill a particular man, it's kind of non-sensical to poison food many people would eat; and your victim isn't even first of them.





Part II: The Plot and the Plotters



2) In any event, Tytos dies, Tywin steps in and immediately makes it known that there’s a new sheriff in town. He starts squeezing his bannermen to repay the loans they had taken out. Those that resist, like the Reynes and the Tarbecks, are not merely censured, but exterminated, with Tywin storming their castles and putting every living soul he can find to the sword – even the washerwomen and livery boys who have no influence whatsoever regarding the doings of their lord. To someone like Lady Olenna – who is the real power in Highgarden, never doubt that for a moment – this is deeply troubling because she has always espoused a firm but gentle approach to lesser houses and the small folk as a means of building loyalty. But since all of this is happening in the Westerlands, there’s not much she can do about it.


2a) The simple fact is, that as far as kings go, Joffrey is not that bad – not in lady Olenna’s eyes, at least. Remember, this is a woman who lived through the Mad King years, when noble lords and ladies were getting wildfire poured down their throats, when Rickard Stark was strung up in the throne room, roasting over a huge bonfire. When his son Brandon tried to help him, an elaborate series of chains and pulleys caused both men to die horribly. By contrast, all Joffrey has done is subject Sansa to a public beating and feather a few rioters with his crossbow. Lady O undoubtedly has some concerns about Joffrey, by virtue of the tales that Littlefinger’s men were spreading at Bitterbridge and Sansa’s first-hand account, but her reaction in Sansa’s PoV to these tales is nothing more than: “Ah, that’s a pity.”



3) Likewise, Margaery herself is not overly concerned. “Loras will protect me,” she tells Sansa. And indeed, as the wedding draws closer, Joffrey not only fails to express any hostile intent toward Margaery, but in fact seems very into her. After all, she’s hot, she’s smart, she puffs up his ego at every chance, and she comports herself in a very queenly and regal manner. Much different from the stupid, and I mean stupid, things that Sansa is always saying to Joffrey – at his name day celebration, Marsella’s departure etc. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that Margaery is probably the only person in Kings Landing that Joffrey does not despise. Several times during the wedding feast, he hugs her, kisses, her, twirls her around the room – clearly he is ecstatic at marrying this beauty rather than drab, pale, mopey Sansa.



4) In the same vein, the benefits to House Tyrell of a royal wedding, even to a shit like Joffrey, are substantial: a member of their family in a high position in the capital, essentially a Queen displacing a Queen Mother. As well a royal heir to cement the Tyrell line to the ruling dynasty.



5) What are the stakes that Lady Olenna is playing here? Everything, literally everything. If Tywin Lannister was willing to completely destroy a noble house like the Reynes simply because the lord boasted that he was more powerful than Casterly Rock, what do you think he would do in response to an attempt on his grandson’s life? He would first arrest the entire Tyrell family at King’s Landing, plus all their bannermen, and put them to the question. Then he would form up his army and let them loose on the now leaderless Tyrell host outside the capital. Then he would march on Highgarden, smash his way through the gates and systematically execute every man, woman and child on the grounds. In the end, the 10,000-year Tyrell line (dating all the way back to Garth the Green in the Age of Heroes) would be over in a single night, never to return.





2 and 2a - I think you contradict yourself here. If Olenna truly is so appalled by Tywin's personality and war campaigns, she surely saw Joffrey was even worse then him. For what's she's been told, and had the opportunity to witness firsthand in the months before the wedding: Joffrey is a guy who wantonly murders smallfolk on a whim and generally shows quite a sadistic and vicious streak.



2a and 3 - so you take Olenna's and Margaery's placating comments to Sansa at a face value? You couldn't have expected them to confess something like: Yeah, we were just checking Joffrey to decide whether to put our assassination plans into motion. Political marriage or not, Olenna doesn't want her beloved granddaughter to endure life of abuse at the hands of confirmed sadist.



4 - and that same benefits they'll receive if they marry Margaery to Tommen. Joffrey isn't needed for Tyrells to marry into ruling family.



5 - then why didn't Tywin do exactly that after successful attempt on his grandson's life (accidental or not)?


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No. Just no.



Longer version: you're making a lot of unfounded assumptions. The one with "four-fifths of the Tyrell forces now fighting for Stannis" simply does not compute. Renly took the smaller part of his army to Storm's End, a portion of it went over to Stannis, but at the end of the day at the Blackwater Stannis had about twenty thousand men to Tyrell-Lannister eighty thousand. The Reach not once was a beggar in need of protection - even after Storm's End they still had the largest army on the continent, quite likely in the world.



The entire paragraph starting with Olenna "not being a 21st century grandma" is painfully illogical. Using highborn hostages, for example, doesn't prove that the welfare of particular family members is expendable, it proves the opposite - that it is important as hell. And anyway, we've seen the examples of it all over the series. And anyway, do you think that Littlefinger, while explaining the plot, confused Olenna for a 21st century grandma? He knows which century he lives in. Furthermore: yes, the Tyrell gals reacted quite calmly to Sansa's relations about Joffrey being a complete monster. Excuse me, what reaction would you expect from them? Shout "we must kill him!" in Sansa's presence? You point out that Olenna lived through the times of Mad King Aerys. That is an excellent reason to remove Mad King Joffrey from the equation and replace him with his human brother. Joffrey was trouble now and would be more trouble in years to come.



You elaborate how Garlan couldn't inconspicuously poison the wine, and how Olenna couldn't, and for some reason omit Margaery. Well, not exactly: you point out how dangerous it would be for her to drink from the poisoned cup. Well, it would bear no danger at all, if she herself had done the deed. Take a sip, drop the poison, lean back and wait for Joffrey to die. Requires nerves of steel, but technically very simple.



As for the Strangler supposedly acting in different speed with Joffrey and Cressen - sorry, I don't see it. Here and there it's almost immediate. Cressen drinks and dies. Joffrey coughs, drinks, keeps coughing and starts dying. Seems similar enough to me. Joffrey was young and reasonably fit, maybe that gave him those few extra seconds of life.



Also, the little problem of the Strangler somehow dissolving itself in pie - the burden of proof is at your side, if you want to convince anyone.



Bottom line - no.


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Are we allowed to start from the factual errors?

For one thing, your whole bit about Tywin's reputation is full of little errors. Lord Reyne didn't just boast that he had more power than the Lannisters - he and the Tarbecks rose in open rebellion against them. Tywin took it upon himself to crush that rebellion and did it - he was around 18 at the time. He became Hand of the King in 262, at 20, and Lord of Casterly Rock at 25, upon his father's death in 267. So much for the timeline.

Being Hand of the King doesn't preclude a person from being a Lord of his lands. In fact, Ned, while holding the office, always styles himself both Lord of Winterfell and Hand of the King. But that is hardly relevant to your theory, so let's move on.

Tywin didn't burn the Riverlands until after the Starks entered the war and Jaime was captured. Sure, he sent Gregor to pillage and burn in order to lure Ned out, but that's nothing compared to the full-scale destruction he unleashed after the Whispering Wood.

Edit: Oh, and Tywin served (and very well at that) as Hand of the King for nearly 20 years.

Now to the actual poisoning.

I really only have one question. How did whoever deployed the Strangler make it dissolve into a pie? Keep in mind that we're talking about a hard crystal. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the poison was deployed after the pie was served. How could they be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion) wouldn't see the crystal, or even chew on it and break a tooth?

I think the point about it dissolving into wine is made to show that it has to be deployed in a liquid - and also that it has a strong colour, which can be hidden in the wine.

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No. Just no.

Longer version: you're making a lot of unfounded assumptions. The one with "four-fifths of the Tyrell forces now fighting for Stannis" simply does not compute. Renly took the smaller part of his army to Storm's End, a portion of it went over to Stannis, but at the end of the day at the Blackwater Stannis had about twenty thousand men to Tyrell-Lannister eighty thousand. The Reach not once was a beggar in need of protection - even after Storm's End they still had the largest army on the continent, quite likely in the world.

The entire paragraph starting with Olenna "not being a 21st century grandma" is painfully illogical. Using highborn hostages, for example, doesn't prove that the welfare of particular family members is expendable, it proves the opposite - that it is important as hell. And anyway, we've seen the examples of it all over the series. And anyway, do you think that Littlefinger, while explaining the plot, confused Olenna for a 21st century grandma? He knows which century he lives in. Furthermore: yes, the Tyrell gals reacted quite calmly to Sansa's relations about Joffrey being a complete monster. Excuse me, what reaction would you expect from them? Shout "we must kill him!" in Sansa's presence? You point out that Olenna lived through the times of Mad King Aerys. That is an excellent reason to remove Mad King Joffrey from the equation and replace him with his human brother. Joffrey was trouble now and would be more trouble in years to come.

You elaborate how Garlan couldn't inconspicuously poison the wine, and how Olenna couldn't, and for some reason omit Margaery. Well, not exactly: you point out how dangerous it would be for her to drink from the poisoned cup. Well, it would bear no danger at all, if she herself had done the deed. Take a sip, drop the poison, lean back and wait for Joffrey to die. Requires nerves of steel, but technically very simple.

As for the Strangler supposedly acting in different speed with Joffrey and Cressen - sorry, I don't see it. Here and there it's almost immediate. Cressen drinks and dies. Joffrey coughs, drinks, keeps coughing and starts dying. Seems similar enough to me. Joffrey was young and reasonably fit, maybe that gave him those few extra seconds of life.

Also, the little problem of the Strangler somehow dissolving itself in pie - the burden of proof is at your side, if you want to convince anyone.

Bottom line - no.

Not sure where you are getting your info on the size of their armies. My reading tells me that just about all of Renly's banners went over to Stannis save for the Tyrells, Tarly's, Redwynes and a few smaller houses. The larger part of the men at arms stayed at Bitterbridge and were not involved in the attack on KL, but the Tyrell's certainly couldn't count on them because their liege lords were now fighting for Stannis.

And I'm not saying LF confused anything regarding Lady Olenna because he knows she thinks like a high lord and would very well allow Margy to marry Joffrey in order to put a crown on her head. To suggest that LF would plot with LO just to protect Margy even at the expense of broader political goals is to suggest that neither of them are players and are instead acting to satisfy their emotional needs. That's the way Cersei thinks, not the way LF, LO or Lord Tywin think.

And no, I wouldn't expect either LO or Margaery to leap up and run screaming from the capital, but people seem so willing to accept that Lady O was so frightened of Joffrey that she would risk her entire house, her family line for all eternity, in a risky attempt at regicide when there is absolutely no evidence anywhere in the text to support that assumption. Yes, Joffrey may produce more trouble in the years to come, but Tyrion is a direct threat in the here and now. Lady O would certainly want to take care of first things first.

As for Margaery drinking the wine and then poisoning it, how do you suppose she could explain the fact that when it touched her lips the wine was clean, but when she handed it to Joffrey, suddenly it was poisoned?

And while the poison acted almost immediately in Cressen's case, it takes maybe twice as long for Joffrey. Perhaps this was due to the greater amount of wine in the chalice than in Cressen's cup. But perhaps the crystal was still in his mouth and didn't fully dissolve until the wine hit it. Two possibilities, neither one of which can be dismissed out of hand IMO.

And as I closed my OP: I have no proof, only Whispers.

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Also....It would have been rather anti-climatic if Joff died like Cressen.


*Sip*


*Dead*


Instead you get him dying like someone who is suffocating should die the strangler doesn't kill someone instantly it chokes them to death and really who chokes to death in 12 seconds?Its more like 1-3 mins of them flopping on the floor like a fish.



The Tyrell's along with LF killed Joff but LF doesn't work with others so he used the distraction to have Sansa taken and brought to him.



IMO the Tyrell's simply would have blamed it all on Tyrion said Sansa was innocent of everything then worked to marry her to Willas.Then Marry Marg to Tommen oust Cersei (the Tyrells vastly outnumbered the Lannisters in KL) and that's about it.


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I don't mean this to sound as rude as it's probably going to come across, but your theory/post has so many textual and mistaken-assumption errors in it, I'd have to write a post almost as long to point them all out.

Tyrion was quite simply nothing to anyone that would warrant an elaborate and hugely fallible plot to kill him at Joff's wedding. LF had nothing personal against Tyrion, he was trying to sow seeds of tension between Stark and Lannister with the dagger lie and succeeded beyond his wildest hopes. There's nothing in his account books for him to fear. He was MoC, he had to make money for the crown, and he did so. Do you really think Robert or the Lannisters would give a rat's butt if some of his methods were "shady?"

The Tyrells wanted Marg to be queen, but they knew that marriage to Joff would wind up with Loras dead or as the latest Kingslayer. And they knew for her to be queen they needed a king, but they didn't need JOFFREY. And timing wise, they needed him to die AFTER Marg became a semi-legal queen, but BEFORE consummation, if they hoped to get Tommen for her.

The whole thing about the pie being poisoned instead has been brought up here countless times, and always wound up pretty thoroughly debunked. All the foreshadowing, clues and evidence point to LF/the Tyrells, with the wine in the chalice, with Joff as the target.

Then there's the small issue of LF admitting (in detail, up to and including the QoT playing with her hairnet) the entire thing to Sansa once she's on board the ship. Really, the whole idea was for Tyrion to be poisoned with pie but it was necessary for Sansa to escale, and when she gets to the ship as quickly as anyone possibly could have, LF is already aware that the wrong person died and how, and has come up with a completely different tale to tell Sansa?

It's fun to speculate on for some I guess, we're all starting to go a bit nuts with the wait. But going overboard (haha) by adding mass speculation, twisted canon and misinterpreted text does not make a new concept (indeed this one is years old). It just makes for a very long repetition of another crackpot theory.

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There was a big deal made in the books about joffs highly sadistic tendencies and his compulsions toward hurting people close to him. It is said unequivocally that Loras being on the KG in concert with the former was a guarantee of Regicide and a War between the rock and highgarden. Cressen's technique of dissolving the crystal in wine was foreshadowing 101.


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I like it but then I always wondered how the tiniest people were supposed to get the poison in the cup.

In general I really wonder why Lady Olenna would trust Littlefinger to supply poison and why they would have to smuggle it in on Sansa's hairnet. It seems that the only benefit to this is making Sansa feel responsible.

I think that what really happened is that there were several types of poison on several targets circulating at that dinner at the same time. Oberyn seems to have poisoned Tywin at some point and Tywin said something about a sharp lesson as well. I do believe Littlefinger had more motive for taking out Tyrion than Joffrey. Also Olenna would be angry about the surprise marriage of Sansa to Tyrion. Joffrey was manageable and then after a son disposable.

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And in the end, I turn it back on the skeptics: Is there anyone out there who can disprove this theory, not with opinions regarding the poison or the mindsets of the key players, but with incontrovertible facts and logic?

No, there's nobody out here that can disprove this theory, at least not to the level you seem to be insisting. After all, nobody here witnessed the thing, all we have is what's in the books. So rather than something incontrovertible, you're going to have to settle for which theory makes more sense.

But let's compare your theory to the standard theory.

1. Why did this happen at Joffrey's wedding, probably the most hazardous place in KL to try to kill somebody? The standard theory provides a reason for this, it's necessary because of the timing. But your theory does not, since there's plenty of other better opportunities to kill Tyrion.

2. Why poison Tyrion's pie instead of his wine? Tyrion's wine is right in front of him and he's definitely going to drink it. On the other hand, who knows which of the 78 courses he's going to eat (edit: I see you've suggested that he *had* to eat some of the wedding pie and they could predict which part of the pie he'd eat. But that doesn't make it a better choice)? And you only have a few seconds to poison the pie, while you have all night to find a good time to poison the wine. And what are the odds that Tyrion is not paying attention when his pie arrives (or is the pie not significant at all, you haven't really explained this part of your theory)?

3. The same with dissolving the crystal. The standard theory says "look, here's evidence it dissolves in wine and here's the coloring that provides even more evidence". Your alternative says "oh yeah, well you can't *prove* it doesn't work in pie also"

Almost every one of your points is like this. The standard theory has an explanation for something, and your alternative is to say "but you can't *prove* it wasn't otherwise, I want incontrovertible evidence". Well, you're not going to get it. I can't prove it wasn't Blackfish or Melissandre, either, and I could easily come up with theories about why they had motive.

Two last points: first, can you at least admit that GRRM is pointing strongly to the standard theory using all sorts of foreshadowing and other techniques? If the standard theory is wrong, then GRRM is throwing in the kind of twist that he has never used before. Saying "this hard crystal dissolves in wine" and then coming back later and say "oh, but it also dissolves in pie, I forgot to mention that" seems more appropriate in a Discworld or Hitchhiker's guide novel.

Secondly, although I think your theory is definitely wrong, I probably have a lot more sympathy for your theory than most probably do. The fact that Joff is eating Tyrion's pie seems like such a lampshade that I feel sure it's going to come back in some way. But it can't come back as "that's where the strangler was" because that goes against everything we've read. But I find it hard to believe it isn't significant in some way.

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ask you, if you were the Queen of Thorns with that much at stake, would you risk it all on you or Garlen’s ability to drop a crystal into a three-foot wine chalice that is sitting plain as day on the high table in front of 200 people without being seen?

I wanted to ask you this separately, because I can't figure out what your point is here. Are you saying that she while wouldn't risk all this on dropping a crystal into a chalice, she *would* risk it on slipping a crystal into a slice of pie? I'm not seeing the huge difference between those two things.

It's risky to try to kill somebody at the royal wedding. And regardless of whether Joff or Tyrion is the target, Tywin is going to be pretty pissed off. It just looks like you've got this huge middle section supposedly poking holes in the standard interpretation without noticing that all of these holes apply to your alternative as well.

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And for the question that inevitably comes up whenever I voice my theory on these boards: “Where is your proof?” I can only respond:

Alas my lords and ladies, I have no proof. Only whispers.

And in the end, I turn it back on the skeptics: Is there anyone out there who can disprove this theory, not with opinions regarding the poison or the mindsets of the key players, but with incontrovertible facts and logic?

Lol...we need facts (proof) but you don't?

Anyways, as others have pointed out with many arguments, i don't see this theory being the truth at all.

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I don't think it is fair to be so intolerant of other theories. This is supposed to be a forum, right? The OP made his own thread and didn't try to derail an existing one... he should have the right to post a new thread and if people do not want to consider alternate theories there are plenty of the same old threads on here...

I may not agree with alot of things people believe on here but I believe it is my right and every person's right to say what they believe without being required to conform because of bullying or peer pressure. The OP was simply suggesting an alternate possibility, can't we all be calm and get along?

Until the last books are out this is all we have...

I am not directing the above to anyone in particular. I just would hate to log in here and only find the same few people talking because everyone else is afraid to say anything new. I like to read all the theories. :)

1. Why did this happen at Joffrey's wedding, probably the most hazardous place in KL to try to kill somebody? The standard theory provides a reason for this, it's necessary because of the timing. But your theory does not, since there's plenty of other better opportunities to kill Tyrion.

I think if you wish to poison someone it is probably best if you don't invite them to a small dinner party. It is better to have multiple people with motives present. A party where there will be numerous distractions such as toasts and tumblers is perfect for dropping the poison. Also, the chaos after could provide an exit.

2. Why poison Tyrion's pie instead of his wine?

Great question! I think a goblet may be further to reach for and higher but also I wondered why Joffrey was so weird as to ask Tyrion why he is not eating his pie. It seemed sorta odd why should Joff care? Maybe he was specifically directed to make sure Tyrion ate his pie (like how he was guided to hire the jousters) and Joffrey took it upon himself to try to insult Tyrion by eating it and mashing his fingers in it. I am sure he would have made Tyrion eat it next. Also, Joff mentions it is bad luck not to eat it. Joff is concerned about bad luck as we saw when Sansa saved Dontos. Maybe someone suggested to make sure Tyrion ate his pie or it would be bad luck? Joff just wanted to mess it up first.

3. The same with dissolving the crystal.

There is actually evidence that the flake of hard crystal the size of a seed is not very hard at all... It left a purple smudge on Sansa's hairnet. This combined with the ingredients described and the use of ash to crystallize it makes me think it might be more oily like a food or medicinal type crystal. These type are meant to dissolve or melt. There are crystals formed of coffee, honey, or sugar, even wine and ink. Alot of these crystals dissolve in a liquids including wine. There are many crystals like sugar that are usually crunchy but can also melt a little and smudge especially if an ingredient like ash was a base ingredient.

It does say wine in each example of the use of this poison so wine may be an activator. In the OP wine was applied to the pie. Joff was drunk and the poison was a seed size of flaky crystal. It was a pigeon pie which I assume has vegetables and meat and sauce and a layer of lemon sauce was also spooned over each serving. I really doubt anyone would notice it without removing the sauce and carefully examining it.

can you at least admit that GRRM is pointing strongly to the standard theory using all sorts of foreshadowing and other techniques?

There are at least two possible references to Sansa wearing a poisonous hairnet in visions by Patchface and the Ghost of High Hart and the Cressen prologue demonstration of dropping it in wine. There is the description of it from the waif. The use of Sansa is therefore foreshadowed and there is the hint of the Cressen's bottle being the size of a little finger indicating it's source. The example of it being dissolved in wine and the suggestion to dissolve it in wine was what actually happened. It was carried via pie into the mouth where wine dissolved it.

the fact that Joff is eating Tyrion's pie seems like such a lampshade that I feel sure it's going to come back in some way. But it can't come back as "that's where the strangler was" because that goes against everything we've read. But I find it hard to believe it isn't significant in some way.

I think it is significant too and I think it may be that there was more than one poison attempt here.

Regardless, I believe this is yet another case that shows Littlefinger's ability to thrive on chaos and he doesn't really care if Joffrey dies and Tyrion is blamed or if just Tyrion is dead as long as Sansa will be a widow and flee KL. He is always willing to take credit. Olenna is probably thrilled with the results as well. Two birds with one stone.

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Not sure where you are getting your info on the size of their armies. My reading tells me that just about all of Renly's banners went over to Stannis save for the Tyrells, Tarly's, Redwynes and a few smaller houses. The larger part of the men at arms stayed at Bitterbridge and were not involved in the attack on KL, but the Tyrell's certainly couldn't count on them because their liege lords were now fighting for Stannis.

Stannis, in the first Davos chapter after Renly's death:

And Highgarden is far from spent. My brother left the greater part of his power at Bitterbridge, near sixty thousand foot.

Varys, in the first Tyrion chapter after Renly's death:

A fifth of Renly’s knights departed with Ser Loras rather than bend the knee to Stannis.

Basically, after Renly died and Robb crushed the Lannister army at Oxcross, Stannis and Tywin had almost equal armies (each around 20 000) and the Tyrells had 60 000 (at least). Five of Stannis's twenty thousand were the Lords sworn to Dragonstone, which would suggest that the men who went from Renly to him were about 15 000.

There were no Redwyne troops in Renly's army, because Cersei had Lord Paxter's two sons as hostages. There were also almost no Hightower troops either (though I can't remember why - I think it was just Lord Leyton being cautious). The Florents can field about 2000 men, and they were pretty much the only notable Reach House to declare for Stannis after Renly died - the others were Stormlords.

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