Ukraine 12: All Russia wants is a little "Жилая площадь"

[The Marquis de Leech]

Put it this way: what possible motivation would he have to attack a country that has spend nearly seventy years using neutrality as its selling point, and which doesn't have a Russian minority at all? Only a tiny fraction of Finns can even speak Russian, because the way the education system works, they all end up learning Swedish and (normally) English as their additional languages (apart from Swedish speaking Finns, who learn Finnish and normally English). Finland belonged to Russia between 1809 and 1917 (when Lenin let them go), but they were an autonomous Grand Duchy with its own systems within the wider Empire (it wasn't until very late in the nineteenth century that the Tsar pushed Russification on Finland, via centralisation of powers, and that went down like a cup of cold sick).

A country that might be used as a backdoor attack is a whole other story, of course...

[Galactus]

Finland's entire post-WWII geopolitical strategy has hinged on being neutral and non-scary, and thus an honest and decent peacemaker between the international powers. The fact that they, alone of the Western countries, shared a land border with the Soviet Union, provided a strong impetuous there: Helsinki convinces Moscow that they won't be used as a backdoor for a Western invasion, and the Russians in return leave them alone (Finland has a very strong communist tradition of its own, BTW, up there with France, if not quite Italy).

It's also worth remembering that Finland does an awful lot of trade with Russia. When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, it took the Finnish economy with it (Finland experienced a worse downturn in the early 1990s than it had in the 1930s). Sanctions against Russia are already costing Finnish businesses, and the Finnish economy isn't doing great at the moment (Nokia has been laying off a lot of workers). Joining NATO would be as much an economic disaster for Finland as a diplomatic one.

Remember, Finland hosted Soviet troops until 1956, and theoretically had a mutual defence pact with the USSR. In terms of international politics Finland was much closer to a Soviet client-state than in the western orbit.

[Horza]

This op-ed advances two propositions I find somewhat hard to disagree with, namely that Putin has to be part of any solution and he won't be brought to the table by sanctions (though my reasoning is a little different in that I think he's banking on Ukraine's economy crumbling first). Unfortunately Roxburgh's solution sounds like something that might've had legs in April/May when the forces and rhetoric committed by both sides was still relatively light. Now that thousands are dead and armies totally committed I can't see either side settling for what he's proposing.

[Horza]

That's probably pretty close to it. He is ratcheting up Russian's military response in the hope of a breakthrough but this just means lurging from one sub-optimal situation to another.

And it's not just everyday Russians living in parallel realities, people with access to the inner circle say the man himself is increasingly closed off.

[Shryke]

Russian military commitment is, afaik, very unpopular in Russia too, so he's also being forced to commit troops while having to tell Russians he's not.

So he's got to ramp up the propaganda machine even more. Hence calling a bunch of Russian mother's of soldiers fascist spies.

I don't think anyone is gonna end up happy he took this quickly decide route to projecting power.

[Horza]

Clearly he should have stopped digging some time ago, but I'm less concerned with him and his mates there at the bottom than all the people getting dragged over the edge.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think his likely game is that Ukraine is at the point of bankruptcy and if he can push this conflict for long enough, Ukraine will face financial collapse and be forced to the negotiating table.

[Horza]

Then we get to the question of what it is that he wants - a 'federalisation' that effectively frees the southeast from Kiev's control? A frozen conflict ministate consisting of the DNR/LNR as they stand? The latter plus Mariupol? The full Novorossiya?

I can't see how the government in Kiev could sign off on any of those today and remain in office for Shaktar's first Champions League game. I'm not sure finanical collapse and further Russian advances would change people's minds either - national endangerment and lost territory have a habit of short-circuiting cost-benefit analysis.

[daskool]

Russian military commitment is, afaik, very unpopular in Russia too, so he's also being forced to commit troops while having to tell Russians he's not.

So he's got to ramp up the propaganda machine even more. Hence calling a bunch of Russian mother's of soldiers fascist spies.

I don't think anyone is gonna end up happy he took this quickly decide route to projecting power.

Could you provide some evidence for this assertion or are you just voicing a personal opinion? Putin is standing on something like 85-90% approval in opinion polls (compared to Obama in the mid thirties).

I think the opposite is likely true. Putin has shown no massive desire to directly intervene in Ukraine but if he's seen abandoning millions of ethnic Russians to a regime in Kiev consisting (in part) of far right Nazis likely as not he himself would be deposed.

[daskool]

Then we get to the question of what it is that he wants - a 'federalisation' that effectively frees the southeast from Kiev's control? A frozen conflict ministate consisting of the DNR/LNR as they stand? The latter plus Mariupol? The full Novorossiya?

I can't see how the government in Kiev could sign off on any of those today and remain in office for Shaktar's first Champions League game. I'm not sure finanical collapse and further Russian advances would change people's minds either - national endangerment and lost territory have a habit of short-circuiting cost-benefit analysis.

Oh I think the Russians have been pretty clear about what they'd like to see, I'll list them if you like

1) Ukraine commits not to join NATO

2) Kiev makes guarantees to protect the rights of ethnic Russians, including recognizing the Russian language

3) No fascists/Nazis in the government of Kiev

4) Kiev commits to full and fair elections and the western Ukrainian politicians bind themselves to respect the results

Which one of those points do you think unreasonable?

[Horza]

Oh I think the Russians have been pretty clear about what they'd like to see, I'll list them if you like

1) Ukraine commits not to join NATO

2) Kiev makes guarantees to protect the rights of ethnic Russians, including recognizing the Russian language

3) No fascists/Nazis in the government of Kiev

4) Kiev commits to full and fair elections and the western Ukrainian politicians bind themselves to respect the results

Which one of those points do you think unreasonable?

Oh hey there, yes, none of those are unreasonable, some of them already exist -- legislation undoing 1) not having been passed yet -- or happening, like parliamentary elections (everywhere where it's safe to do so, naturally) this October, and I'm sure the current Ukrainian government would be happy to talk to Russia about 2) and 3), but since Russia isn't providing the Donbass rebels with arms, supplies or manpower I don't see how it can be of assistance to Ukraine in the current conflict.

[Horza]

Oh, looks like maybe those four items aren't a complete and definitive list of Russian objectives:

"We need to immediately begin substantive talks ... on questions of the political organisation of society and statehood for southeastern Ukraine with the goal of protecting the lawful interests of the people who live there," Putin was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies on a TV show broadcast in the far east of the country.

[daskool]

Oh, looks like maybe those four items aren't a complete and definitive list of Russian objectives:

Is the problem with escalation. What Russia would have been happy with a couple of months ago they won't be happy with the more blood and treasure they expend. Ukraine could have reached a settlement after MH-17, when pressure on Moscow was at it's most acute, instead they launched a massive offensive against the eastern rebels, when anyone with half a brain should have realized the Russians would never allow total defeat of the ethnic Russian forces.

The Ukrainian gov are now faced with a nightmare scenario, on the one hand they're increasing reliant on fascist militias to put up anything like effective resistance against the rebels who will demand more representation in central government as their reward, and on the other we see the Russians commit ever more resources to assisting the rebel forces. I don't think that makes a negotiated settlement possible at least in the near term.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Daskool,

So, it is Ukraine's fault that Russia armed the Donbass Seperatists and is now pouring Russian Troops and equipment into Eastern Ukraine requiring Putin to call Russian Mother's of dead solider's fascists to cover his bald face lies? That's all Ukraine's fault?

This "can't leave the Russian minority undefended" bullshit is for the birds. Is Russia going to try this same shit in Latvia or Estonia?

[Horza]

Is the problem with escalation. What Russia would have been happy with a couple of months ago they won't be happy with the more blood and treasure they expend. Ukraine could have reached a settlement after MH-17, when pressure on Moscow was at it's most acute, instead they launched a massive offensive against the eastern rebels, when anyone with half a brain should have realized the Russians would never allow total defeat of the ethnic Russian forces.

The Ukrainian gov are now faced with a nightmare scenario, on the one hand they're increasing reliant on fascist militias to put up anything like effective resistance against the rebels who will demand more representation in central government as their reward, and on the other we see the Russians commit ever more resources to assisting the rebel forces. I don't think that makes a negotiated settlement possible at least in the near term.

Wait, I thought the Russians hadn't intervened? Sounds like in this post they're quite heavily involved in supporting the rebels. Maybe 'directly intervening' has a highly specific meaning that doesn't involve things like supplying heavy weapons, shelling and sending troops across the border...

You're right though, this is the problem with escalation, the other guy keeps escalating in response. Your chronology is somewhat interesting, as by MH17 the Ukrainian army had already pushed the rebels out of Slavyansk and Russian involvement was already on the up. De-escalation talks scheduled for 5 July in Donetsk ended up not materialising, and the Russian position after MH17 called for talks between the rebels and Ukrainian government alone, not a position that the Ukrainian government could accept as aside from being spectacular bad faith on Russia's part such talks wouldn't commit Russia to stop supply of arms or personnel to the rebels for the duration of any ground ceasefire.

[daskool]

Daskool,

So, it is Ukraine's fault that Russia armed the Donbass Seperatists and is now pouring Russian Troops and equipment into Eastern Ukraine requiring Putin to call Russian Mother's of dead solider's fascists to cover his bald face lies? That's all Ukraine's fault?

This "can't leave the Russian minority undefended" bullshit is for the birds. Is Russia going to try this same shit in Latvia or Estonia?

I don't think the Ukrainian government is helping it's cause by employing Nazi militias to rampage through towns and villages in Eastern Ukraine. In the west this is not reported on but you can be damn sure in Russia it is.

Wait, I thought the Russians hadn't intervened? Sounds like in this post they're quite heavily involved in supporting the rebels. Maybe 'directly intervening' has a highly specific meaning that doesn't involve things like supplying heavy weapons, shelling and sending troops across the border...

You're right though, this is the problem with escalation, the other guy keeps escalating in response. Your chronology is somewhat interesting, as by MH17 the Ukrainian army had already pushed the rebels out of Slavyansk and Russian involvement was already on the up. De-escalation talks scheduled for 5 July in Donetsk ended up not materialising, and the Russian position after MH17 called for talks between the rebels and Ukrainian government alone, not a position that the Ukrainian government could accept as aside from being spectacular bad faith on Russia's part such talks wouldn't commit Russia to stop supply of arms or personnel to the rebels for the duration of any ground ceasefire.

After MH-17 pressure on Moscow was at it's greatest. At the same time the Ukrainian government had enjoyed some military success against the separatists. Instead of taking advantage of this and pressing for a deal Kiev decided that it could defeat the rebels and continued to press them militarily. From a strategic perspective that was batshit insane as there was no way Putin was going to allow the separatists to be defeated even with the threat of western sanctions and all it has achieved is direct Russian involvement, which as I said makes a negotiated deal that both sides can live with all but impossible in the short term. When a resistable force meets an immovable object the result should be obvious.

Btw my argument with Scot is over the term 'invasion'. I don't believe Russia has invaded Ukraine, they're providing support to the rebels, including directing irregular Russian volunteers and providing logistical support. If/when Russia does invade Ukraine I'm sure we'll know about it.

[daskool]

[Recovering forum addict]

I don't think the Ukrainian government is helping it's cause by employing Nazi militias to rampage through towns and villages in Eastern Ukraine. In the west this is not reported on but you can be damn sure in Russia it is.

Ah, yes, the trustworthy objective Russian media.

[The Fallen]

Ethnic Russians in Ukraine want to be a part of Russia

+ Russia wants them to become a part of Russia

= Ethnic Russians in Ukraine picking up and moving 100 miles east to ... Russia.

Problem solved.

[DanteGabriel]

Yup, that's pretty much the way it reads to me as well.

There is nothing wrong in my books with a person taking pride in certain positive features of his/her country, such as a Norwegian extolling the beauty of its fjords or a French person swelling with pride over France's unmatched ability to create some of the best cuisine and wine in the world, to name two random examples.

But when national pride turns into "we are better than others" (not in terms of an ability, but simply as a people) it becomes problematic, to say the least. FNR seems to suggest that in the aftermath of WWII Germany should have taken more of a "shit happens, but we're still the best" attitude. I, on the other hand, think that one of the things that Germans should take more of a quiet pride in is precisely the fact that they didn't shy away from painful soul searching after the horrors that the country had committed.

In fact, it seems to me that it is pretty much the only country which has ever done that. Japan certainly never openly atoned for its crimes during the same time, Turkey still loudly denies its attempted genocide of the Armenians, and the vast majority of Serbs dismiss the shelling of Sarajevo and the crimes of Srebrenica with "everyone was doing bad things at the time". So kudos to Germany for NOT taking the psychologically easier way out by adopting a defensive posture and trying to deflect blame.

Yup.

And America is fucking awful at confronting its national sins. It kind of reminds me of something a friend of mine in college said once about the kids from the art school down the road: "They can justify anything and deal with nothing." I said in some other thread that it seemed like America had a chance to take a good long look at the ugliness in its history in the 1970s, but instead the country bought into the sunny, optimistic snake oil that Ronald Reagan was peddling, and we've been on that Overprivileged Shitheel path with a vengeance ever since.

There are a lot of Americans, of course, who have pretty good awareness of our true history, but I'd say the default for most Americans is acceptance of the comfortable cheesy myths we were spoon-fed in school. And the fact that our national leaders who fucking well know better, like Obama, still have to pay lip service to the notion of American exceptionalism, is incredibly aggravating.