Shadow Cat 75 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I am almost sure that House Tryell lords of Highguarden will soon be stabbed in the back and their house will fall from power. This stab in the back will not come from the Lannisters but from their own bannermen lead by House Tarly. I believe that House Tarly the same house which Sam comes from is going to betray the Tryell and team up with the combined forces of the Golden Company and Dorne to not only take Kings Landing by the end of Winds of Winter but Highguarden as well.There are five things, which I believe points toward this happening. First- Mance Tryell took all the credit and honor from Lord Randyll Tarly for his defeat of Robert Baratheon at Ashford, Randyll Tarly does not seem like the type of man to let that go. Since Martin like to use real life history as inspiration, I feel this adds to the likelihood that he will turn since one of the driving motivations for Benedict Arnold to betray the Americans was when General Gates took the credit for Arnold’s victory at the battle of Saratoga. Second- in Storm of Swords, Mance Tryell gave all the Florent Lands to his second son because of their support of Stannis. Now this may have been missed by a lot of people including myself until a friend pointed it out but Randyll’s wife is a Florent and by all customs the land should have gone to her and by extent her children. Once again, Mance has offended the second greatest house in the Reach and by far the most experience military leader he has. Third- In Dance of the Dragons, a commander of the Golden Company has said that even after a 100 years that they still had friends in the Reach and that High Guardian wasn’t as powerful as Mance thinks. I believe this shows a link between the Golden Company and House Tarly and may be multiple other houses. Fourth- In the end of A Dance of Dragons it is Tarly which keeps raising the fact that it may not be the Golden Company in the Stormlands lead by Jon Connington is a fake. Also Kevin Lannister said that Tarly was more dangerous then Mance. Fifth- Tarly is in perfect position to stab Mance in the back, he had the loyality of a large part of the forces of the Reach and he can pull a Roose Bolton and send those loyal to Tyrell into battle first to die. He is the best solider the Reach has, he is on the small council meaning he can make moves behind the scene to weaken Tommen and could very easily open the gates when the Golden Company comes for King’s Landing. Also if Margaery’s trail goes against her and the faith tries to kill him, Tryell will send men in to stop it and it would give Tarly cover to turn against him so that he could “defend the faith”. Finally since Tarly’s home is right in between Dorne and Highgaurdan it would be easy for the two of them to join up and move against that city. In my theory Winds of Winter will end with Aegon Targaryen who I believe is really a Blackfire walking into the Red Keep with the support of the Golden Company, Dorne and the Tarly controlled Reach. It will be the final placement in the war between three dragons and the War for the Dawn II. Aegon will control the South, a resurrected Jon Snow who I believe is a Targaryen as King in the North and Beyond the Wall and Dani who will land somewhere at the end of the book. What do you think will the Rose Fall and how would it happen and effect the story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lady jellybean Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I like it. I can see why tarly would feel that way. So if its the war of the three dragons how do aegon and john get thier dragons? And do you think margrey loses her trial by the faith? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stannis's birthright Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I would be interested to see from whom the POV of these events comes from. I can see this happening for sure .. I do believe fAegon will sit on the Throne with Adrianne as his bride for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordQorgyle Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Tarly aren't the second most powerfull house from the reach..hightowers and Redwynes are much more powerfull and Rowans probably too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordQorgyle Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Tarly aren't the second most powerfull house from the reach..hightowers and Redwynes are much more powerfull and Rowans probably too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guy Garlan Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Yes, I agree. Randyll is in a perfect position to screw Mace over, mostly because he currently has Margaery in his custody That said, I don't think he'll do it just because of those slights. After all, it's not like Mace gave him nothing: he is Master of Laws/Justiciar I think he'll simply ride the Aegon wave. I think Rowan will be the first to turn, then the Hightowers and finally Tarly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadow Cat 75 Posted October 19, 2014 Author Share Posted October 19, 2014 I like it. I can see why tarly would feel that way. So if its the war of the three dragons how do aegon and john get thier dragons? And do you think margrey loses her trial by the faith? I used the Dragons as a metopher since all three would be or claim to be Targaryens, Dany would be the one with the smallest army but the real Dragons. As for how Margrey could lose the trail I am not totally sure but I would bet that Varys and at least one if not both of the Sand Snakes coming to Kings Landing would play a part. Tarly aren't the second most powerfull house from the reach..hightowers and Redwynes are much more powerfull and Rowans probably too Tarly's may not be the second most powerful overall but when it comes to the ground military they are. Hightowers are the richest since they have Oldtown and the massive port while the Redwynes power is at sea and right now they would have to push through the Iron Born to help Highguarden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brynden Blackfish Jr. Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I'm not so sure Tarly will stab Mace in the back at this point, considering his obedient nature. Tarly is a stereotypical warrior, not a political opportunist, but I won't say he isn't capable of being one. If he does stab the Tyrells in the back, it will be because of a combination of factors. I think Mace will have to do something to really set him off, as a small slight won't be enough to make Tarly become disloyal, and it's not like Mace hasn't rewarded Tarly for his loyalty. Also, Aegon will have to show great potential in battle and the Tyrells will have to be in a much more weakened state than they are currently in. I can see them having a major downfall, as their house sigil is a rose and roses die when winter comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordQorgyle Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 It is never said that tarly has bog army..It is Rowan that commands the siege of SE and its hightower that as the biggest army Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RainGhost Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 It's certainly plausible. I think most people agree that the Tyrells are set for a fall - they've risen too high. Tarly is not only one of the most capable commanders in the Reach but one of the most capable commanders left in Westeros. He could wipe the floor with Mace Tyrell but of course he needs men loyal to him first. If the roses look on the way down, I'm pretty sure some of their bannermen will jump ship. What this means for the Tyrells I don't know but they don't have the same heritage as the other great houses, so I think it will be difficult for them to recover. I really hope poor Margaery doesn't lose her trial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryagonnakill#2 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 First off, hats off to the OP for mentioning the battle of Saratoga, because I'm from Saratoga and a lot of people seem to not know what an important battle was fought there. 2nd, house Hightower is far and away stronger than house Tarly, they can field 10k men on short notice and probably as many as 20 including all of their bannermen. Last, I agree completely, and would like to point out that there are Florents being kept in Oldtown under the protection of the Hightowers even tho the Tyrells must not like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Blizzardborn Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Sixth, Randyll Tarly's wife is a Florent. The Florents have a claim to being Lords Paramount of the Reach, based on descent from the Gardener Kings of old. They want Highgarden and all that comes with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Starks Revenge Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Maybe I haven't read the signs closely enough but, I have a hard time thinking the Hightowers are going to turn on the Tyrells... the Lady of highgarden Alerie was born a Hightower. That means Marg, Loras, Garlan and Willas are all half Hightowers. I have a difficult time seeing the Hightower side hanging those kids out to dry. Maybe its just wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joluoto2 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I doubt the Hightowers will go over (family ties with the Tyrells), but Tarly might or maybe Rowan. The Tyrell storyline will have much to do with how things go down in King's Landing. If Marge is executed Mace is probably willing to join Aegon himself. But then again, if Marge survives, the Tyrells still have a hold on the throne through Tommen, and then we can have a scenario where some of their bannermen defect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Starks Revenge Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I doubt the Hightowers will go over (family ties with the Tyrells), but Tarly might or maybe Rowan. The Tyrell storyline will have much to do with how things go down in King's Landing. If Marge is executed Mace is probably willing to join Aegon himself. But then again, if Marge survives, the Tyrells still have a hold on the throne through Tommen, and then we can have a scenario where some of their bannermen defect. Yes. This I could see either way. One way or another the Tyrells are going to suffer. I still can't decide if Marg is going to make it or not. Killing the only daughter of the Lord of Highgarden and the Queen if only in name of the seven kingdoms seems risky for the faith. It is something that I am looking forward to, it seems inevitable that they are going to get a swift kick to their good luck and take a severe hit one way or another. :box: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordQorgyle Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I wope that at least Garlan and Willas survive..Margaery too...The others could die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
l2 0 5 5 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 OP - Good point about Tarly's wife being a Florent. Surely Tarly saw Brightwater Keep as a place where he could extend his power and influence. I'm sure he kept it to himself, but he had to be pissed when Mance gave it to Garlan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyman Manderly's Meat Pies Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I like it. I can see why tarly would feel that way. So if its the war of the three dragons how do aegon and john get thier dragons? And do you think margrey loses her trial by the faith? Aegon gets his like this. Victarion blows the horn and steals one of Dany's dragons. He flies to Westeros seemingly as the most powerful man in the world. He goes to the reach where Euron is raiding and the Dragon kills Euron. Vic enjoys a few fortnights as King of the Iron Islands before crossing Aeogon's path. Aeogon, Blackfyre or not has the blood of the dragon and it senses that before eating Victarion. Or not, I don't write the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OberynBlackfyre Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 First off, hats off to the OP for mentioning the battle of Saratoga, because I'm from Saratoga and a lot of people seem to not know what an important battle was fought there. 2nd, house Hightower is far and away stronger than house Tarly, they can field 10k men on short notice and probably as many as 20 including all of their bannermen. Last, I agree completely, and would like to point out that there are Florents being kept in Oldtown under the protection of the Hightowers even tho the Tyrells must not like that. Yes a lot of people are talking about the Hightowers however a lot of people also forget that Oldtown is under siege pretty much. And while I think something will happen where the power of the Reach does shift, I think it will be Euron that provides the biggest threat to Westeros as a whole at the moment. Yes lets say Tarly DOES make a move, the Hightowers and Redwynes are busy defending their own lands so they aren't going to really do anything to help the Tyrells---However if Tarly does take the Reach, lets say for himself) he is going to have to immediately dispose of Garlan and Willas while also proving that he can defend the Reach from the incursion of Ironborn......so he won't have much time to give Aegon aid unless he opens the gates for them in KL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 From Tarly such a move makes little sense politically right now. He could defect to Aegon, yes, but he cannot really stab Mace in the back and turn against the Tyrells as a house, because only Mace and Margaery are with him right now, and unless Willas and Garlan die suddenly too, the Tyrells will remember his betrayal and eventually deal with House Tarly. Not to mention that Mace has uncles and cousins in Oldtown and elsewhere. House Tyrell is way too well-connected in the Reach to be toppled by one unruly bannerman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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