R+L = J (?) An alternative explanation for Robert's Rebellion

[Rippounet]

So in the discussion about Lyanna's reasons to run off with Rhaegar I eventually came up with a theory which gives us a totally different perspective on Robert's Rebellion. Not sure if it's really new, but I'll give it a try nonetheless.

The problem with R+L=J is that it assumes that Rhaegar either ran off or abducted Lyanna. To sum up:

- Either Rhaegar was so madly in love with Lyanna that he ran off with her, sacrificing his kingdom, his friends and his family for her.

- Either Rhaegar believed so much in prophesy that he abducted Lyanna to father a child with her.

But whichever you choose (or even if you choose both), Rhaegar disappearing with Lyanna leads to Robert's Rebellion and the end of the Targaryan dynasty. Not only that, but they disappear for a whole year, which is hardly brave or noble of them, although both were portrayed as just that.

This is the main problem of the story as it is (to my mind), but there are others, like:

- Why did Brandon go straight to King's Landing to challenge Rhaegar?

- Why did Ned's promise torment him so much?

- Why was Lyanna found in Dorne, of all places? The Martells would probably not be happy of Rhaegar shunning Elia.

The World Book gives us an interesting view of the politics at the time. It heavily implies that Rhaegar was the one to secretly organize the Harrenhal tournament to convene a Great Council in order to depose his father with the help of the Lords Paramount. The tension between Aerys and Rhaegar is described by none other than Grand Maester Pycelle himself in a letter to the Citadel, who feared it might come to a civil war.

When Rhaegar gives the garland of blue roses to Lyanna, two very interesting things happen:

- Brandon Stark is infuriated and needs to be restrained.

- Symond Staunton suggests to Aerys that Rhaegar is trying to win the allegiance of the Starks.

Now I'm not sure why Brandon Stark would be that infuriated. This is, in itself, surprising: you would expect the Martells to be the ones feeling insulted. Even Robert apparently laughed at that point. The Starks and Baratheons might feel slighted, but it's hardly a declaration of war.

I'm sure Rhaegar had a good reason to give Lyanna the garland, but this would require another thread and we don't have enought elements to speculate on this.

Aerys's likely thoughts at Harrenhal are what matters: Rhaegar is trying to form an alliance with the Starks, and possibly the Baratheons, to depose him.

For all intent and purposes, at this point, Rhaegar has no good reason to run off with Lyanna or abduct her. He might want to talk with her, either because he has taken an interest in her (for prophesy or for love), either because she can help him convince his father (Rickard) and betrothed (Robert) to side with him in the event of a civil war. But abducting her is sure to alienate powerful Houses he wants as allies. He is smart, and it's unlikely he would take such a radical action. Also, Lyanna would tell him what a mistake this is from the start.

Who has an interest in abducting her? Aerys loyalists. Kidnapping Lyanna prevents the Starks and Baratheons from bonding their Houses, and if Robert can be convinced to marry someone else afterward, can cripple Rickard Stark's "Southern ambitions". But more importantly, if the blame is put on Rhaegar it kills any chance he has of ever deposing his father.

Of course, it's still a crazy plan: not only does it push the Starks and Baratheons to rebel (and also, as we'll see, the Arryns), but it means a war the Targaryans are not certain of winning. But this is precisely my point: abducting Lyanna is crazy. It's the sort of thing that Aerys would do, not Rhaegar.

So I speculate that Lyanna was, in fact, taken to King's Landing by Targaryan men. One way or another, they were meant to be seen as acting on Rhaegar's orders, when they were in fact, acting on Aerys's. Brandon arrived in KL first, was arrested, and used to bring Rickard, who was then executed for treason. For the next months, Lyanna was the king's prisoner. What Rhaegar was doing is unknown, but I would say he tried to rescue find Lyanna, and failed. Despised by both the rebels and his father, he had no choice but to lay low until he could find Lyanna.

One must bear in mind that in those days, Aerys was suspicious of both his son Rhaegar and his wife Rhaella, whom he often raped. Despite Viserys obviously being his son, he still wanted children (he eventually fathered Daenerys), and was probably crazy enough to still have doubts about Rhaella. So he turned to his captive, Lyanna Stark.

When Viserys was born, Aerys had ordered Kingsguard knights to stand over him night and day. When Lyanna fell pregnant he did the same. He ordered Whent, Dayne and Hightower to take Lyanna south and guard her and her child against anyone who might take the child away. Rhaegar, being friends with Arthur Dayne, might have finally found her in Dorne and hoped to secure her freedom after she had given birth. But the rebels were winning the war, and [after Aerys had Elia and her children brought to KL as hostages] he was forced to act against them, despite his own reservations. So he left the Tower of Joy to take command of the Targaryan army ; without Lyanna he couldn't even negotiate, so he faced the rebels at the Trident, hoping that he could win enough time. Allas, Robert killed him.

When Ned and his men reached the Tower of Joy he found the Kingsguard determined to prevent him from rescuing his sister and her son. After the fight, Lyanna made him promise never to reveal Jon's true parentage. The promise haunted Ned for years because it prevented him from telling Robert that Rhaegar had, in fact, always been a brave and honorable knight.

To conclude, Robert's rebellion was actually triggered by Aerys, because he feared the Starks would support Rhaegar and depose him. Of course, this would also mean that Jon is not Rhaegar's son. And just like many people speculate that Rhaegar wed Lyanna as a second wife, Aerys could have as well, making Jon the legitimate heir as soon as Viserys died.

This would also make Jon and Dany siblings, hence the "Luke and Leia" situation hinted at by Alfie Allen: http://www.vulture.com/2012/06/game-of-thrones-theon-alfie-allen-interview.html?imw=Y

And of course, since Targaryans tend to wed brother and sister...

I'm know this is a bit of a stretch, but basically, I feel that what we know of Rhaegar doesn't really compute with him abducting Lyanna Stark. And at that point of time, others had an interest in blaming him for it. Aerys was my obvious choice, because there is at least a little textual evidence to support him hating the Starks, and because it leads to the interesting conclusion that Jon may really be Dany's brother. But it's also interesting to see how the World book describes at length how Tywin grew to hate Aerys, and I wonder if Tywin couldn't have "a hand" in events.

[Connartist92]

I've seen similar theories before, and the main issue raised every time is.. Why would Rhaegar accept the blame for kidnapping Lyanna this whole time? If he was truly innocent, and really did want to oust his father, all he had to do was say, "Hey guys, I don't have her but my crazy dad does. Let's go free her together." He would've been able to free her much easier with the Northern and Stormland armies on his side.

[Modesty Lannister]

Robert's rebellion was not triggered by abduction of Lyanna, but by Aerys II request that Jon Arryn should surrender him Ned's and Robert's heads. As for the rest, I do agree the most believed version makes no sense, but that's where my agreement with your post ends. Aerys abducting Lyanna is absolutely unsupported by the text. And you provided no evidence at all. So, all in all, good thinking out of the box, but textually unsupported.

[Han Snow]

That is my pet crackpot.

Aerys the daddy of :

Dany, Jon and Tyrion.

All three through rape. Three heads of the dragon.

Or not.

[Ser Ed]

I don't buy it but it's not the craziest thing I have read. Lyanna winding up in Dorne is curious. I think the the Dornish storyline might shine light upon the who, what, where and why Lyanna was at the ToJ with 3 Kingsguard and not some place like Dragonstone or King's Landing with more Targaryen's about.

Perhaps Darkstar or his kin, who was related to ser arther dayne, will shine more light upon it when he pops up again.

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed. He did not think it omened well that he should dream that dream again after so many years. EDDARD X aGoT

The sentence I highlighted seems to point out that other people seem to have info on the ToJ.

[Rippounet]

I've seen similar theories before, and the main issue raised every time is.. Why would Rhaegar accept the blame for kidnapping Lyanna this whole time? If he was truly innocent, and really did want to oust his father, all he had to do was say, "Hey guys, I don't have her but my crazy dad does. Let's go free her together." He would've been able to free her much easier with the Northern and Stormland armies on his side.

Good point.

So, maybe he didn't know his father had her and looked for her elsewhere?

I edited my post to take that into account.

Robert's rebellion was not triggered by abduction of Lyanna, but by Aerys II request that Jon Arryn should surrender him Ned's and Robert's heads. As for the rest, I do agree the most believed version makes no sense, but that's where my agreement with your post ends. Aerys abducting Lyanna is absolutely unsupported by the text. And you provided no evidence at all. So, all in all, good thinking out of the box, but textually unsupported.

Yes, I hate not having much to support my theory. It's more guesswork than anything else.

I wonder whether Rhaegar abducting Lyanna is supported by the text though. I know everyone in the story believes that, but IIRC we have zero direct witness to say what happened.

In fact, the whole thing is shrouded in mystery. Rhaegar's and Lyanna's wherebouts are totally unknown once she disappears in the Riverlands. They could have been fighting for a sellsword company in Essos for all we know.

The only thing we know for certain is that both Lyanna and Rhaegar eventually turned up in the South. Ned found Lyanna in Dorne, and Rhaegar came back "from the South" to lead an army up the Kingsroad. Not much to go by. For what it's worth, I even have a friend who thinks that Doran knows a lot about what really happened.

[The Santa of House Claus]

It is certainly an interesting theory and Aerys abducting Lyanna out of paranoia in an attempt to shatter any real or imagined alliance between his son, the North and Stormlands is very possible. As for the rest, still possible, but maybe less so. I'd like to see any textual evidence about Lyanna's abduction. Is it witnessed or speculated that it was Rhaegar's men that took her? I mean they would probably just be Targ men at arms in either case, not Rhaegar and Connington and others.

[The Santa of House Claus]

It is certainly an interesting theory and Aerys abducting Lyanna out of paranoia in an attempt to shatter any real or imagined alliance between his son, the North and Stormlands is very possible. As for the rest, still possible, but maybe less so. I'd like to see any textual evidence about Lyanna's abduction. Is it witnessed or speculated that it was Rhaegar's men that took her? I mean they would probably just be Targ men at arms in either case, not Rhaegar and Connington and others.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I've seen similar theories before, and the main issue raised every time is.. Why would Rhaegar accept the blame for kidnapping Lyanna this whole time? If he was truly innocent, and really did want to oust his father, all he had to do was say, "Hey guys, I don't have her but my crazy dad does. Let's go free her together." He would've been able to free her much easier with the Northern and Stormland armies on his side.

An excellent point but for one thing...if Rhaegar moved against his father--with or without support from the Starks and Cousin Bob--his wife and children would be as good as dead. He might have kept silent to keep his own family safe, especially when you take the prophecy and his belief that Aegon was TDtwP into account.

Overall this is good reasoning. However...this theory doesn't take into account Dany's vision of Rhaegar saying "There must be one more...the dragon has three heads." He was clearly talking about his own children, and the maesters had told him that Elia couldn't have any more babies.

There's a variation where Aerys had Lyanna kidnapped but Rhaegar saved her from his father and R+L fell in love after that. He could have taken her to Dorne to keep her safe from Aerys. The last place anyone would look for the prince and a girl he's hiding would be in his in-laws' backyard.

It is certainly an interesting theory and Aerys abducting Lyanna out of paranoia in an attempt to shatter any real or imagined alliance between his son, the North and Stormlands is very possible. As for the rest, still possible, but maybe less so. I'd like to see any textual evidence about Lyanna's abduction. Is it witnessed or speculated that it was Rhaegar's men that took her? I mean they would probably just be Targ men at arms in either case, not Rhaegar and Connington and others.

The story goes that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent were with Rhaegar when he abducted Lyanna. Don't know about eye-witnesses but it seems unlikely that Lyanna was alone when she was taken. So there had to be three men, and one of them had to be able to pass for Rhaegar from a distance at least.

That is my pet crackpot.

Aerys the daddy of :

Dany, Jon and Tyrion.

All three through rape. Three heads of the dragon.

Or not.

In that case Dany is TDtwP. She's the only one of Aerys and Rhaella's line.

[Rippounet]

The sentence I highlighted seems to point out that other people seem to have info on the ToJ.

Rhaegar naming it "the Tower of Joy" is troubling though.

And yet... I can't help but think of tropes here... A damsel in distress, imprisoned in a tower, to be rescued by a handsome prince...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damsel_in_distress

I've read before that Robert thinking he had to rescue Lyanna from Rhaegar was a subversion of the "damsel in distress" trope, and that the handsome prince turned into a fat alcoholic whoring king after failing to rescue his damzel.

So maybe there is still a trope here somewhere. Except of course the one doing the rescuing was Rhaegar all along, not Robert. Ned knowing that would definitely torment him.

It is certainly an interesting theory and Aerys abducting Lyanna out of paranoia in an attempt to shatter any real or imagined alliance between his son, the North and Stormlands is very possible. As for the rest, still possible, but maybe less so. I'd like to see any textual evidence about Lyanna's abduction. Is it witnessed or speculated that it was Rhaegar's men that took her? I mean they would probably just be Targ men at arms in either case, not Rhaegar and Connington and others.

Yes, the first part of my theory is the most convincing. What happens after Lyanna's abduction though...

Well, maybe Rhaegar did somehow rescue her from Aerys, and only after that did they truly fall in love. Would pretty much explain everything, but without making Rhaegar a dishonorable idiot in the first place.

[Rippounet]

The story goes that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent were with Rhaegar when he abducted Lyanna. Don't know about eye-witnesses but it seems unlikely that Lyanna was alone when she was taken. So there had to be three men, and one of them had to be able to pass for Rhaegar from a distance at least.

Where is it written that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent abducted Lyanna? That's a very important piece of information.

Two reasons at least:

- Kingsguard knights could definitely be acting on Aerys's orders, while others could think they had been ordered by Rhaegar.

- Arthur Dayne could probably be mistaken for Rhaegar from a distance, couldn't he? He'd have had both the looks and the skill.

[Connartist92]

Good point.

So, maybe he didn't know his father had her and looked for her elsewhere?

I edited my post to take that into account.

But it still stands to reason that if he never had her and never knew anything about it, he would just say so

[Connartist92]

An excellent point but for one thing...if Rhaegar moved against his father--with or without support from the Starks and Cousin Bob--his wife and children would be as good as dead. He might have kept silent to keep his own family safe, especially when you take the prophecy and his belief that Aegon was TDtwP into account.

That I didn't take into account, so an open rebellion against his father is a definite no go.

But if we accept that Aerys kidnapped Lyanna and Rhaegar didn't know, Rhaegar could and should openly claim his innocence. He wouldn't have known his wife and children were as risk if he did so

[Marcel]

I still prefer my theory that Lyanna went to Starfall under Rickard's orders. She should be with Ashara for Brandon's child birth. Rhaegar, Dayne and Whent escorted Lyanna to Starfall and they traveled by boat. They received the news about Aerys' acts there. With her father and older brother dead, Ned's head demanded by the king and without news regarding Benjen, Lyanna asked Rhaegar to get her pregnant, to preserve the lineage of the Starks. That's the reason Ned put a statue of Lyanna among Winterfell's kings and Lords.

[WSmith84]

An excellent point but for one thing...if Rhaegar moved against his father--with or without support from the Starks and Cousin Bob--his wife and children would be as good as dead. He might have kept silent to keep his own family safe, especially when you take the prophecy and his belief that Aegon was TDtwP into account.

Wasn't Rhaegar's family at Dragonstone when he disappeared? So unless everyone at DS was a hardcore Aerys loyalist, I think that would be an unfounded fear. Particularly as he could always move them somewhere he felt was safer.

[Marcel]

Where does this information regarding Brandon's reaction comes from? I said in that very same topic about Lyanna's reason to run off that I believe the crown of blue winter roses was meant to Brandon and nobody presented this information. It's very relevant to me. What is the source?

[Rippounet]

But it still stands to reason that if he never had her and never knew anything about it, he would just say so

Would he? His father arrested Brandon and demanded Rickard so quickly after Lyanna's abduction that nothing he could say would really right things. The only thing left to do would have been to find Lyanna and give her back to Robert, but he had precious little time to do that.

Also, ironically, if he said he didn't do it, it would totally make Brandon's arrest legitimate. Maybe even Rickard's execution would then be justified (if not the way it was done).

And finally, whatever Rhaegar did or didn't do, Aerys was still his father: the Starks could still see see him as partly responsible for what happened, especially after the garland incident, and even more so if they didn't want to take sides in a Targ' civil war in the first place.

I don't see a problem with Rhaegar not telling anyone that he didn't abduct Lyanna. No one who mattered would have believed him, and those who would could have accused him of treason if he accused Aerys.

And then, when he did find her, either they fell in love or she was pregnant with Aery's child. In both cases, there was no going back for him. As soon as Brandon arrived in KL to kill Rhaegar, the events were pretty much impossible to prevent.

No, really, if someone else framed Rhaegar for Lyanna's abduction, he was f***ed, caught between a mad king and very angry Starks and Robert. If that's what happened, it was brillant. That's why I wonder if such a scheme wouldn't have been hatched by yet another player: Varys (advising Aerys), LF (to get revenge on Brandon), Tywin (to get revenge on the Targs)...

[Marcel]

Rhaegar only returned to King's Landing because Aerys sent someone to bring Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon from Dragonstone. Otherwise he wouldn't fight a war for his father, a rebellion that he probably considered justified.

[Rippounet]

I still prefer my theory that Lyanna went to Starfall under Rickard's orders. She should be with Ashara for Brandon's child birth. Rhaegar, Dayne and Whent escorted Lyanna to Starfall and they traveled by boat. They received the news about Aerys' acts there. With her father and older brother dead, Ned's head demanded by the king and without news regarding Benjen, Lyanna asked Rhaegar to get her pregnant, to preserve the lineage of the Starks. That's the reason Ned put a statue of Lyanna among Winterfell's kings and Lords.

But Lyanna being abducted in the Riverlands is very well established. It's actually one of the few elements we are certain of.

Where does this information regarding Brandon's reaction comes from? I said in that very same topic about Lyanna's reason to run off that I believe the crown of blue winter roses was meant to [??] Brandon and nobody presented this information. It's very relevant to me. What is the source?

If you're talking about his reaction to the garland, it's in the World book, at the top of page 127.

Brandon's outrage is very intriguing to me. It somehow suggests Brandon already had reasons to be angry at Rhaegar. It could have to do with the whole KofLT thing. But I'm not sure it's linked to Lyanna's abduction.

Rhaegar only returned to King's Landing because Aerys sent someone to bring Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon from Dragonstone. Otherwise he wouldn't fight a war for his father, a rebellion that he probably considered justified.

Excellent point. This explains why Rhaegar returned from the South to lead a loyalist army at least.

[Marcel]

I was discussing this matter with Ygrain in the topic you mentioned. I can't make long posts for now because I am in the middle of a trip. But as soon as I am back to my home I intend to continue the discussion on that topic regarding Lyanna's reason to run off. But I believe that the crown was a message to Brandon, because he used his status as a heir to a great Lord to dishonour Ashara and get free from that. Rhaegar message was like that: you can't seduce and dishonour any woman you want, because someday someone can do the same to your sister. This made Brandon a little paranoic regarding Lyanna's honour, so when someone told him that she went to somewhere else with the prince, Brandon over reacted.