R+L = J (?) An alternative explanation for Robert's Rebellion

[Marcel]

Again why Brandon went there? Because of what Rhaegar did! If Rhaegar hadn't done it Brandon wouldn't had a reason to go there!

But It turns out that Brandon does not know for sure what Rhaegar did, so much that he went to the wrong place! That's my point, he did something stupid based on wrong assumptions that caused his father and his own death. An act that helped start a war.

Yes. I would had gone there and asked for her no matter what. What I wouldn't had done is to wait for the criminal to appear and answer for his crimes. There is absolutely no logic at just waiting for the criminal to come clean.

How would you help your daughter risking to hurt yourself? I agree that there is no point to just wait the criminal to come clean, but first you need to be sure that a crime indeed happened.

[Sunspear Warrior]

II don't think anything said in the theory couldn't have happened. But I don't think it did.

It makes no sense for Rhaegar to take the blame for the "kidnapping" if he didn't do it. Especially if he wants to remove his father from power. If Aerys kidnaps Lyanna, he has just given Rhaegar a perfect excuse for removing him from his position.

[Rippounet]

We are assuming that Rhaegar is innocent of Lyanna's abduction, correct?

Yes.

Ok, I've given plenty of reasons for Rhaegar not declaring himself innocent, but I think I've found yet another one.

You're pretty much asking me to explain why Rhaegar would not claim his innocence. I say he has no reason to do so in the first place because he is.

When someone accuses you of doing something preposterous, you don't necessarily deny it. Answering such accusations might only lend credence to them. Instead, you'd be better off finding the actual culprit, or just keeping silent. And if you read through the World Book, the nobles of Westeros almost never answer accusations. Unless they're put on trial by a more powerful person, no noble of Westeros would ever say anything as silly as "I didn't do it" or "It's not me" or "It's not true." That's part of the privilege of being a noble.

And this is the Crown Prince we're talking about. His position prevents him of even taking notice of the accusations which are thrown at him.

And even supposing he humbled himself to the point of answering the Starks' accusations... This would only condone Aerys's actions against them, which he definitely doesn't want to do.

As to why Rhaegar eventually leads a loyalist army, Lady Blizzardborn helped me on this one: Aerys had his family in King's Landing. And anyway, despite Rhaegar wanting to depose his father, he still wanted the Targ dynasty to endure.

[Robb-TheYoungWolf]

Whilst I agree that civil war would not be the result I'd have bet on, it certainly shouldn't have been discounted entirely. Recent Baratheon-Targaryen history about broken betrothals was not on Rhaegar's side. And since many viewed Robert as the Laughing Storm reborn, and with Brandon's reaction to the crowning at Harrenhal... I'd have said war, however brief, was definitely possible.

They could definitely have smoothed things over if Rhaegar had been given the chance to sit down and talk with Robert. Had he proposed some sort of compensation for Roberts "loss" (a new marriage perhaps? Or something else) I doubt he would have been able to gather enough support to launch a civil war. What really started the rebellion was Aerys ridiculous response to Brandon Stark.

Certainly, the "obvious simple" answer is the version we have so far. I don't deny that. But anyone can open a thread on this forum to discuss theories which might make more sense from a slightly different perspective.

Two things don't fit in the official story:

Disappearing with the daughter of a Lord Paramount betrothed to yet another Lord Paramount is not something a crown prince does. It's dumb to say the least. More importantly it fits neither Rhaegar's character nor the political situation at the time.

It makes no sense. Occam's razor doesn't work.

Not anticipating the shitstorm that would come from Lyanna's disappearance would have been incredibly foolish. But as soon as Brandon was arrested they would have known this was going to be ugly. Then, Rickard was executed and Aerys asked for Ned and Robert's heads. At what point would Rhaegar and/or Lyanna come out of hiding to calm things down?

Again, it makes no sense.

You're fully allowed to open threads and discuss other possible theories just as I am fully allowed to say that your theory has no basis in the text and is not convincing to me.

As I pointed out above, civil war upon abducting Lyanna Stark was not inevitable. Things could have easily been deescalated had Rhaegar been given the chance to explain himself. Abducting Lyanna makes perfect sense for Rhaegar's character as he believed wholeheartedly in TPTWP prophecy (evidence of which can be found throughout ASOIAF). To him it was extremely important that he have another child and that that child be born of ice and fire. He believed in doing so he would be saving the world some day. That's worth pissing off a couple nobles that he could probably please with other favors later. How was he to know that Robert was that in love with Lyanna and would be that offended? How was he to know that Rickard wouldn't be jumping for joy that his daughter would marry a freaking prince and that his grandson would be a potential heir to the throne? I'd also like to point out again that it was not the abduction of Lyanna itself that caused rebellion but Aerys actions. Civil war could have been avoided. So I'd argue that yes, occam's razor does still work, and that while Rhaegars action may have been foolish there was some logic behind his decision.

By the time they could have came out of hiding the deed had been done. Remember that they are in the TOJ which is extremely remote. Information would take time to reach them. After Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard it was to late to stop anything because now it was no longer just about Rhaegar abducting Lyanna it was about the murders of the Warden of the North and his son. Other's probably joined for no other reason than to get rid of the Targaryen's who for the most part have been unstable rulers. As such, they couldn't have cared less about Rhaegar and Lyanna's little tryst (honestly I think for the majority it was of very little consequence. Like, I don't think Tywin entered the war because of Lyanna's abduction- it was about the bigger picture). Coming forward would have stopped nothing. As I said, the rebellion was because of Aerys- not Rhaegar and Lyanna.

[Rippounet]

Abducting Lyanna makes perfect sense for Rhaegar's character as he believed wholeheartedly in the PWWP prophecy (evidence of which can be found throughout ASOIAF). To him it was extremely important that he have another child and that that child be born of ice and fire. He believed in doing so he would be saving the world some day. That's worth pissing off a couple nobles that he could probably please with other favors later. How was he to know that Robert was that in love with Lyanna and would be that offended? How was he to know that Rickard wouldn't be jumping for joy that his daughter would marry a freaking prince and that his grandson would be a potential heir to the throne?

Except Rhaegar believed Aegon was TPTWP. And while Dany's vision does suggest that he wanted another child, it certainly doesn't explain why it had to be with Lyanna.

BTW, why do you say it was important for Rhaegar that the child be born of ice and fire? Since we see him saying that Aegon's song is that of Ice and Fire...

How was he to know that Robert was that in love with Lyanna and would be that offended? How was he to know that Rickard wouldn't be jumping for joy that his daughter would marry a freaking prince and that his grandson would be a potential heir to the throne?

Please. Wars in Westeros were fought for far less than the daughter of a Lord Paramount. Surely, Rhaegar knew enough of history and politics (and recent events with Brandon) to know the Starks would go to war for Lyanna.

I'd also like to point out again that it was not the abduction of Lyanna itself that caused rebellion but Aerys actions. Civil war could have been avoided.

Aerys's actions were in reaction to Brandon's action, which was a direct (and immediate) reaction to the abduction of Lyanna.

But that's a bit like asking who's responsible for the war of the 5 kings (another thread). Tywin started the war itself, but because Cat abducted Tyrion, but because of what Lysa had told her, because of LF... I'd rather not argue this type of point.

Supposing I accept your premise that war was avoidable, it would have meant for Rhaegar to at least try to mollify the Starks instead of letting them deal with his crazy father. But he didn't.

So no, really, the idea that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna makes him an arrogant selfish idiot, who would throw his own kingdom into war for an age-old prophesy.

By the time they could have came out of hiding the deed had been done. Remember that they are in the TOJ which is extremely remote. Information would take time to reach them.

This means you're assuming Rhaegar and Lyanna went straight from the Riverlands to the Tower of Joy, and thus that Lyanna remained there until the end of the war.

I don't buy that either. I don't think Rhaegar and Lyanna were the kind of people to hide in a remote tower in the middle of nowhere while the kingdom was ravaged by war to make a "prophesy baby." Unless Lyanna was held prisoner and raped that is. Unless Rhaegar was as mad as his father then.

This honestly makes no sense.

Others probably joined for no other reason than to get rid of the Targaryen's who for the most part have been unstable rulers. As such, they couldn't have cared less about Rhaegar and Lyanna's little tryst (honestly I think for the majority it was of very little consequence. Like, I don't think Tywin entered the war because of Lyanna's abduction- it was about the bigger picture). Coming forward would have stopped nothing. As I said, the rebellion was because of Aerys- not Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Uh? Tywin was the only rebel Lord Paramount who didn't care about Rhaegar and Lyanna. And the World book explains at length his reasons.

The Starks and Baratheons rebelled for Lyanna, Brandon and Rickard. The Arryns to protect Ned and Robert. Everybody cared very much about getting Lyanna back. And Aerys was seen as protecting Rhaegar.

Anyway I'm not really trying to convince you of my theory because I think the truth will prove to be even more complex than that.

But I will say that the story as it is, the "simple obvious one" determined by occam's razor, doesn't make more sense. And while it has textual evidence, it relies heavily on interpretation. Also, I could find a number of quotes showing Rhaegar to be much smarter than you make him. Or less crazy. But I'd rather wait for TWOW for more clues...

[JonSnow4President]

Yes.

Ok, I've given plenty of reasons for Rhaegar not declaring himself innocent, but I think I've found yet another one.

You're pretty much asking me to explain why Rhaegar would not claim his innocence. I say he has no reason to do so in the first place because he is.

When someone accuses you of doing something preposterous, you don't necessarily deny it. Answering such accusations might only lend credence to them. Instead, you'd be better off finding the actual culprit, or just keeping silent. And if you read through the World Book, the nobles of Westeros almost never answer accusations. Unless they're put on trial by a more powerful person, no noble of Westeros would ever say anything as silly as "I didn't do it" or "It's not me" or "It's not true." That's part of the privilege of being a noble.

And this is the Crown Prince we're talking about. His position prevents him of even taking notice of the accusations which are thrown at him.

And even supposing he humbled himself to the point of answering the Starks' accusations... This would only condone Aerys's actions against them, which he definitely doesn't want to do.

As to why Rhaegar eventually leads a loyalist army, Lady Blizzardborn helped me on this one: Aerys had his family in King's Landing. And anyway, despite Rhaegar wanting to depose his father, he still wanted the Targ dynasty to endure.

You haven't been paying attention to deflategate at all, have you?

[Rippounet]

You haven't been paying attention to deflategate at all, have you?

I had to google that. :)

But I sincerely fail to see the link. Or the joke (if it is one).

Uh... I mean, nobles may be able to ignore accusations in a med-fantasy world, but a superbowl player is something else... Right?

[Robb-TheYoungWolf]

Except Rhaegar believed Aegon was TPTWP. And while Dany's vision does suggest that he wanted another child, it certainly doesn't explain why it had to be with Lyanna.

How in the world does Aegon fit TPTWP? He is not born of ice and fire and Rhaegar knows this. He must have known that Aegon didn't fit. Maybe initially he thought it was Aegon but he had to realize down the line it made no sense. Maybe that's when he decided to take up with Lyanna. Otherwise we have to assume he abducted Lyanna simply out of love or to rape her, neither of which fit Rhaegar's character. Also, you can interpret visions in many ways. Maybe that vision was of an alternate timeline had things gone differently. We see this happen later on in the house of the undying when Dany sees how her baby Rhaego would have looked had things been different.

BTW, why do you say it was important for Rhaegar that the child be born of ice and fire? Since we see him saying that Aegon's song is that of Ice and Fire...

It is important that the child be born of ice and fire because that is what the prophecy says. I've already given my reasons why he may have labelled Aegon as such but he was definitely wrong in thinking it was him

Please. Wars in Westeros were fought for far less than the daughter of a Lord Paramount. Surely, Rhaegar knew enough of history and politics (and recent events with Brandon) to know the Starks would go to war for Lyanna.

No. Whenever a war is fought over something that appears trivial there is almost always some other bigger reason behind it. Jon Arryn would not have gone to war with Robert just because his betrothed got "kidnapped". Hell, Robert wasn't even thinking of war at that point. No one was. Brandon wanted justice. Many people were upset with Aerys rule and used this rebellion as a means of getting rid of him (Lannisters). Give me an example of something trivial that sparked a large war/rebellion in Westeros without something larger going on between the opposing sides (including past history of the aggressors). You honestly think the entire North, Riverlands, Stormlands, West and East rose in rebellion just because of Lyanna Stark? Please.

Aerys's actions were in reaction to Brandon's action, which was a direct (and immediate) reaction to the abduction of Lyanna.

But that's a bit like asking who's responsible for the war of the 5 kings (another thread). Tywin started the war itself, but because Cat abducted Tyrion, but because of what Lysa had told her, because of LF... I'd rather not argue this type of point.

Nooooo. Lyanna and Rhaegar are not responsible for Brandon's hot head or Aerys madness. They are responsible for their own actions. Lyanna and Rhaegar can not be blamed for them. The spark for the rebellion was Aerys calling for Ned and Robert's head. Nothing more, nothing less.

(Ned's execution was what sparked the war of the five kings as everything before that could have been smoothed over and Cat/Tywin/LF are not responsible for Joffrey's actions.)

Supposing I accept your premise that war was avoidable, it would have meant for Rhaegar to at least try to mollify the Starks instead of letting them deal with his crazy father. But he didn't.

So no, really, the idea that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna makes him an arrogant selfish idiot, who would throw his own kingdom into war for an age-old prophesy.

Again, not Rhaegar's fault his dad is crazy and not Rhaegar's fault Brandon is stupid enough to run up to the gates of King's Landing hollering for the crown princes head (which is very obviously treason). I'm sure he planned to mollify the Starks/Baratheon's etc- it's not his fault they all acted like idiots and didn't give him the time to explain. Again, he probably didn't think he was throwing away his kingdom. He didn't know everyone would act like morons.

This means you're assuming Rhaegar and Lyanna went straight from the Riverlands to the Tower of Joy, and thus that Lyanna remained there until the end of the war.

I don't buy that either. I don't think Rhaegar and Lyanna were the kind of people to hide in a remote tower in the middle of nowhere while the kingdom was ravaged by war to make a "prophesy baby." Unless Lyanna was held prisoner and raped that is. Unless Rhaegar was as mad as his father then.

Oh my god. Yes, lets move the heavily pregnant women through a war torn country for absolutely no reason since giving her up would not have stopped the war anyway. Bang up plan. As previously stated once Brandon and Rickard were dead that was it, the war was happening, there was no stopping it.

Uh? Tywin was the only rebel Lord Paramount who didn't care about Rhaegar and Lyanna. And the World book explains at length his reasons.

The Starks and Baratheons rebelled for Lyanna, Brandon and Rickard. The Arryns to protect Ned and Robert. Everybody cared very much about getting Lyanna back. And Aerys was seen as protecting Rhaegar.

Yeah, I'm sure every single house in the North, Stormlands, Riverlands, East and West "cared very much about getting Lyanna back." :rolleyes: Lyanna coming back would have stopped nothing. The North would still want retribution for the death of their lord and his son, the Lannisters and the majority of people would still want Aerys gone, and Aerys wouldn't have cared anyway. Like, OK let's say Rhaegar says "Ok, here you go she's back, my bad," would that change anything? Would everyone just lay down their arms? Would Aerys forgive those who had risen in rebellion? The die was cast the moment Aerys called for Ned and Robert's heads. Nothing that Rhaegar and Lyanna could do would have changed that.

Basically show me any text that supports your theory and I will re-consider. The most widely held theory has legitimate proof and while yes, you do have to extrapolate some points, it's got a lot more proof than your theory does and actually does make logical sense if you think it through. Basically your whole theory revolves around characters actions not making sense as you interpret them. That's all well and good to create a theory using that as a starting point but you need textual evidence. It can't all be interpretation. It's what separate theories from fanfiction.

[JonSnow4President]

I had to google that. :)

But I sincerely fail to see the link. Or the joke (if it is one).

Uh... I mean, nobles may be able to ignore accusations in a med-fantasy world, but a superbowl player is something else... Right?

A big line I've seen repeated today is "If Brady is innocent, why hasn't he denied it." Which is in direct opposition to the whole "not dignify that response" thing you were claiming.

[The Wolfswood]

Lyanna Stark expressed doubts about Robert Baratheon to Ned. Remember that although he was Lyanna's brother they did not grow up together, but Ned with Robert - his BFF. It seems strange to me that she would express doubts to Ned under those circumstances unless she was SERIOUSLY dubious.

I think Alys Karstark is a big clue here. She is a noble lady of the north who does not want to marry the man she has been told to, so she goes to Jon Snow for help. He is the nearest to a Stark and a liege lord as there is at the moment, at least as far as she is concerned. She said that it was 'because he was the last living son of Eddard Stark.' It seems like some sort of tradition to me.

So we go back to Lyanna and see that it was her own father who was compelling her to marry Robert. So she finds out that Prince Rhaegar, who did not turn her in to his mad dad at the Tourney of Harrenhal where she was the Kight of the Laughing Tree (instead her gave her roses), is in the Riverlands too and he outranks her father. So she runs to him (with Benjen's assistance?) for help. Meanwhile Rhaegar has trouble of his own. The dragon must have three heads and all that prophecy stuff, but Elia Martell will die if he has another child. So for Rheagar it is a perfect solution. He finds her another husband within days just like Jon Snow did with the Magnar of Thenn…. himself.

I'm sure they liked each other enough but I don't see Rhaegar as a rapist or with them having enough time to meet before the 'abduction' to fall in love and plan a big elopement in advance.

But then Brandon and his hot headedness got things off to a bad start. The mad king did what mad kings do and everybody ended up at war.

That's my theory.

[Rippounet]

How in the world does Aegon fit TPTWP? He is not born of ice and fire and Rhaegar knows this. He must have known that Aegon didn't fit. Maybe initially he thought it was Aegon but he had to realize down the line it made no sense. Maybe that's when he decided to take up with Lyanna. Otherwise we have to assume he abducted Lyanna simply out of love or to rape her, neither of which fit Rhaegar's character. Also, you can interpret visions in many ways. Maybe that vision was of an alternate timeline had things gone differently. We see this happen later on in the house of the undying when Dany sees how her baby Rhaego would have looked had things been different.

Sooo, basically you're speculating that Rhaegar eventually realized that Aegon could not be TPTWP. Makes sense, but there's no textual evidence of that. The fact that so many people believe it is not evidence.

Look, I seriously don't want to defend my own theory for ages, because I'm well aware it lacks evidence. I'm not trying to convince anyone.

But at this point, I just wonder whether it all started with Rhaegar abducting Lyanna. I started this thread mainly to see whether there was any solid evidence of that I could have missed. After 5 pages and some extra re-reading I didn't find any. Maybe I've been overthinking this and Rhaegar did, as you say, become convinced that his third child would save the world and that abducting Lyanna was worth the shitstorm that would ensue. I'd be more tempted to think Lyanna and Rhaegar were both caught up in a political scheme of sorts, and that's how they ended up together. Mainly because the political schemes in ASOAIF seem more credible to me than prophesies and romances. Also, because the World book, surprisingly, supports the idea thar Rhaegar was indeed plotting against his father at that point ; as far as I know this is new, because in ADWD this was just a rumor started by Varys. This seems to hint at something, and I'm not sure what.

Again, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Lyanna is Helen and Rhaegar is Paris, and it's just meant to be some sort of tragic love story. Maybe the tension between Aerys and Rhaegar never mattered.

Now, just as an afterthought:

Oh my god. Yes, lets move the heavily pregnant women through a war torn country for absolutely no reason since giving her up would not have stopped the war anyway. Bang up plan. As previously stated once Brandon and Rickard were dead that was it, the war was happening, there was no stopping it.

Heavily pregnant? I guess we all make mistakes.

The most widely held theory has legitimate proof and while yes, you do have to extrapolate some points, it's got a lot more proof than your theory does and actually does make logical sense if you think it through. Basically your whole theory revolves around characters actions not making sense as you interpret them. That's all well and good to create a theory using that as a starting point but you need textual evidence. It can't all be interpretation. It's what separate theories from fanfiction.

In the books, the characters all seem to believe Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna, then abducted her.

Then, some think she was raped, others seem to believe that given Rhaegar's character, she fell in love with him.

Those are the facts. That, and Rhaegar's interest in prophesies.

Even if you take the most widely held theory, there's still plenty of room for tons of events. Some think Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to protect her from Aerys for instance. That's something I can get on board with. It makes sense. It's even pretty close to what I'd imagined.

[Rippounet]

I'm sure they liked each other enough but I don't see Rhaegar as a rapist or with them having enough time to meet before the 'abduction' to fall in love and plan a big elopement in advance.

I agree. I think something pushed Rhaegar to "rescue" Lyanna somehow.

My guess is still that that something was Aerys.

Now the mystery for me would be what Lyanna (and to a lesser extent, Rhaegar) did during that year. Also, why Lyanna didn't go back to Ned, or at least send a message to tell him she was ok. Not wanting to marry Robert is one thing, but letting your family in the dark for so long is a bit extreme considering the circumstances, even for a 15-year old girl who's fallen for the Crown Prince.

Lyanna did care for family and honor, as she proved in the Howland Reed incident. So she must have had a pretty good reason to remain hidden. Her pregnancy would only have kept her bedridden in the final months or so.

[aquintus]

How is he, Rhaegar, not to blame?

Why not take it a step further then? Rickard is to blame since he fathered Lyanna and Brandon. Aegon the Conqueror is to blame, since if he hadn't conquered Westeros, Aerys would have never been king. etc. etc. etc.

The fact of the matter is:

Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna = no war

Brandon threatens Rhaegar = no war

Brandon and Rickard are arrested = no war

Brandon and Rickard are executed = no war

Aerys calls for Ned and Robert's heads = war

All the actions leading up to Aerys calling for Ned and Robert's heads may have contributed to the cause of the war (just like Rickard fathering Lyanna and Brandon, just like Aegon conquering Westeros, just like Aerys being an awful king in general), but it was Aerys demanding that Jon Arryn hand over Ned and Robert that lead to Arryn calling his banners and going to war.

[Rippounet]

Brandon and Rickard are executed = no war

Hmmm, not sure about this one. But since Aerys kept up with the craziness, we'll never know.

[Liz Stark-Targaryen]

Just chiming in to say that I appreciate Rippounet's and Marcel's posts about this well-worn topic. You're making me think about the details of the R+L setup in new ways. Thanks!

[Jon's Queen Consort]

But It turns out that Brandon does not know for sure what Rhaegar did, so much that he went to the wrong place! That's my point, he did something stupid based on wrong assumptions that caused his father and his own death. An act that helped start a war.

So what do you suggest? He should had waited for a year at least since Rhaegar appeared? What if Rhaegar was raping and torturing Lyanna? I guess since he wasn't there to explain himself no one should had done nothing to find them and save Lyanna...

How would you help your daughter risking to hurt yourself? I agree that there is no point to just wait the criminal to come clean, but first you need to be sure that a crime indeed happened.

So wait for a year to see a dead body and not even trying to save her?

Why not take it a step further then? Rickard is to blame since he fathered Lyanna and Brandon. Aegon the Conqueror is to blame, since if he hadn't conquered Westeros, Aerys would have never been king. etc. etc. etc.

The fact of the matter is:

Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna = no war

Brandon threatens Rhaegar = no war

Brandon and Rickard are arrested = no war

Brandon and Rickard are executed = no war

Aerys calls for Ned and Robert's heads = war

All the actions leading up to Aerys calling for Ned and Robert's heads may have contributed to the cause of the war (just like Rickard fathering Lyanna and Brandon, just like Aegon conquering Westeros, just like Aerys being an awful king in general), but it was Aerys demanding that Jon Arryn hand over Ned and Robert that lead to Arryn calling his banners and going to war.

And it was Rhaegar the adult,married,father of two Crown prince who disappeared with Lyanna a teen which made Brandon go to KL. Without that Brandon wouldn't had been arrested and tortured to death along with his father and Aerys wouldn't had called for Robert's and Ned's heads. The fact is that Rhaegar and Lyanna if she went willingly caused a chain of reactions which led to the War. As Barri said; Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it

[WSmith84]

No. Whenever a war is fought over something that appears trivial there is almost always some other bigger reason behind it. Jon Arryn would not have gone to war with Robert just because his betrothed got "kidnapped". Hell, Robert wasn't even thinking of war at that point. No one was. Brandon wanted justice. Many people were upset with Aerys rule and used this rebellion as a means of getting rid of him (Lannisters). Give me an example of something trivial that sparked a large war/rebellion in Westeros without something larger going on between the opposing sides (including past history of the aggressors). You honestly think the entire North, Riverlands, Stormlands, West and East rose in rebellion just because of Lyanna Stark? Please.

The Laughing Storm rebelled and declared himself Storm King over a broken betrothal to a Targaryen. So a war was not totally unexpected. Though I doubt anyone could have predicted how badly the aftermath of the kidnapping could have gone.

[Marcel]

So what do you suggest? He should had waited for a year at least since Rhaegar appeared? What if Rhaegar was raping and torturing Lyanna? I guess since he wasn't there to explain himself no one should had done nothing to find them and save Lyanna...

The fact that I criticize Brandon's thoughtless attitude does not mean I argued that nothing should be done. Brandon would be the future Lord Of Winterfell, he needs to think before he acts, the right attitude would have been waiting for his father at Riverrun and, together with Rickard Stark and Hoster Tully, decide on the best course of action.

So wait for a year to see a dead body and not even trying to save her?

But Brandon's actions did not help Lyanna be saved.

As Barri said; Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it

Barristan is not a reliable judge regarding the motivation of the actions of people he admires. For example, he thinks Daenerys loves Daario, something we know is not true because we have access to her POV, because he does not consider the possibility that his beloved queen is driven by lust. As he does not understand Daenerys actions toward Daario, he seeks to explain them as motivated by love. Love, in Barristan's mind, makes admirable people act without good sense. So, in relation to Rhaegar's actions, he applies the same rationalization, and since he does not know what really happened, he tries to explain why the prince that he thought would be a much better king than Jaehaerys, Aerys and Robert, did something as nonsensical as "abduct" the daughter of the Lord Paramount of the North. In Barristan's mind, only love could explain an act like that.

I believe this is the stretch to which you refer:

"Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it. Daemon Blackfyre loved the first Daenerys, and rose in rebellion when denied her. Bittersteel and Bloodraven both loved Shiera Seastar and the Seven Kingdoms bled. The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of

Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses. All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love in defiance of their father's wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies when he might have made fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire and grief." Barristan - aDwD

I could argue that all situations that Barristan refers represent a gross simplification, but let's consider just one: that Daemon Blackfyre rose in rebellion driven by his love for the first Daenerys. I am preparing a specific post about my own theory, but let me put here a stretch where I am dealing with this particular issue:

Again, Barristan tries to judge something he can not understand as motivated by love. There is a pattern here - whenever any individual who Barristan judges noble or honorable performs an act of folly or does something morally questionable, Barristan seeks to explain such behavior as motivated by "love," which would be for him the spark of madness. Clearly, the passion of Daemon Blackfyre for Daenerys Targaryen played a role in Daemon's decision to rebel, not a direct one, but a symbolic role. The time lapse between the date of her marriage and the beginning of his rebellion suggest that love was not the most important reason . Although there is little information about Daemon, what we know indicates that he was not someone unfit for the throne, and one proof of that is the widespread support he won for his revolt. But it is ridiculous to suppose that the uprising was motivated by love - that's just romanticism and Blackfyre propaganda. The wedding of Daenerys has an essential symbolic value for Blackfyre supporters - Daemon was a warrior, a legitimate Aegon I reincarnated, he possessed Blackfyre, the Conqueror's sword, he was a king who would conquer Dorne by arms, as a legitimate dragon. Unlike the other bastards of Aegon IV, Daemon is pure Targaryen, both by father (Aegon IV Targaryen) and through his mother (Daena Targaryen). For many, he may be a bastard in name, but it was a real dragon in spirit. Daeron II Targaryen is a scholar, a thinker, a strange element in a martial culture. He "conquered" Dorne offering his sister and accepting Prince Maron Martell's terms. These were not acts of a real dragon. Daeron can be a legitimate dragon in the name, but he's a bastard in spirit. Daenerys Targaryen, to those who defended the conquest of Dorne by arms, represents the moment when the Dragon finally knelt. For Daemon, she represents everything that he lost to his half-brother - the name, the throne, the honor, the love of his life. All he had left was the sword, and so he must make use of it. Had he, Daemon I Blackfyre, inherited the Iron Throne in place of Daeron II Targaryen, Dorne would have bent by force and the beautiful Daenerys would have been his. The rebellion, then, is to avenge this stolen heritage, but not to claim the love of Daenerys, as this was long lost. If We accept Barristan's simplification, we are ignoring a much more complex reality.

The Laughing Storm rebelled and declared himself Storm King over a broken betrothal to a Targaryen. So a war was not totally unexpected. Though I doubt anyone could have predicted how badly the aftermath of the kidnapping could have gone.

Regarding the Storm King, I would like to add that it was a promise of marriage made by the king himself, broken by the king himself. In the case of Robert Baratheon and Lyanna Stark, Robert was in line of succession to the throne, then it is natural to assume that Aery had the royal prerogative to approve or reject such a marriage.

[Robb-TheYoungWolf]

Heavily pregnant? I guess we all make mistakes.

In the books, the characters all seem to believe Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna, then abducted her.

Then, some think she was raped, others seem to believe that given Rhaegar's character, she fell in love with him.

Those are the facts. That, and Rhaegar's interest in prophesies.

Well she was obviously pregnant throughout the duration of the rebellion based on the date of Jon's birth so I don't see what mistake you're talking about? Even moving someone in the first three months of pregnancy is dangerous since most miscarriages happen during that time. Maybe heavily is an exaggeration but the point I was trying to makes was it's not safe to move a pregnant women through a war torn country, especially in a medieval society.

There's Rhaegar's interest in prophecies which is supported by numerous instances in the text (HOTU, "It seems I must become a warrior" etc.), the fact that Elia could not bear anymore children which would necessitate Rhaegar looking for another woman to bear his child (which is further evidence as to why Rhaegar would abduct Lyanna), everything that happened at the tourney of Harrenhall, Lyanna's words about Robert Baratheon, Rhaegar dying with the name of a woman on his lips (which GRRM confirmed was Lyanna), GRRM telling readers that the Isle of Faces will come to the fore (Rhaegar and Lyanna were near there a probably had a northern marriage), I could honestly go on.

The Laughing Storm rebelled and declared himself Storm King over a broken betrothal to a Targaryen. So a war was not totally unexpected. Though I doubt anyone could have predicted how badly the aftermath of the kidnapping could have gone.

I'm not trying to argue war was an unexpected outcome. What I'm saying is it could have been easily avoided had everyone kept calm heads.

[AzureWinterRose]

Look, I seriously don't want to defend my own theory for ages, because I'm well aware it lacks evidence. I'm not trying to convince anyone.

But at this point, I just wonder whether it all started with Rhaegar abducting Lyanna. I started this thread mainly to see whether there was any solid evidence of that I could have missed. After 5 pages and some extra re-reading I didn't find any. Maybe I've been overthinking this and Rhaegar did, as you say, become convinced that his third child would save the world and that abducting Lyanna was worth the shitstorm that would ensue. I'd be more tempted to think Lyanna and Rhaegar were both caught up in a political scheme of sorts, and that's how they ended up together. Mainly because the political schemes in ASOAIF seem more credible to me than prophesies and romances. Also, because the World book, surprisingly, supports the idea thar Rhaegar was indeed plotting against his father at that point ; as far as I know this is new, because in ADWD this was just a rumor started by Varys. This seems to hint at something, and I'm not sure what.

Again, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Lyanna is Helen and Rhaegar is Paris, and it's just meant to be some sort of tragic love story. Maybe the tension between Aerys and Rhaegar never mattered.

. . .

Even if you take the most widely held theory, there's still plenty of room for tons of events. Some think Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to protect her from Aerys for instance. That's something I can get on board with. It makes sense. It's even pretty close to what I'd imagined.

Okay, I'm finally caught up reading this. Personally I think the OP is very well founded and I'm not entirely sure why everyone is acting like jerks. There is solid evidence for this in what we know of the characters. For example, Rhaegar isn't an idiot (I don't really need to beat the dead horse again and go through the details of just how stupid what he "did" was) and he isn't a rapist. He did say Aegon's was the song of ice and fire, and while it is possible that he changed his mind at a later time, it's not certain that he did. After all if we go with this 3 heads things he just needs a visenya. Why would she be the only one that needs to have northern blood? Was he just going to start over completely? If any of the three of them need Northern blood it would make sense for it to be Aegon. - okay that dead horse has been beat.

The new point that I hope to bring up in favor of the OP. Is that Aerys' plotting this in a very detailed fashion is totally plausible because there is one key factor many of you may have overlooked: Varys. I don't need to go into detail on just how plot essential he is and I believe that he was from the very beginning. He very well could have cooked up this thing framing Rhaegar and he has the motivation to do it. Aerys brought him into power. Power is what he wants. Rhaegar, based on his character quite likely would have kicked Varys out of court. Rhaegar plotting against Aerys to depose him was definitely something Varys would not have wanted. So there is no need for Aerys to be clever enough to cook this up - Varys did so for him.

Now like Rippounet said, there is evidence of this dissent in the world book and quite a bit of painstaking detail was included for it to just be random factual info. Varys doing this, as mentioned previously, sticks Rhaegar between a rock and hard place. He's trapped and powerless.

And R+L=J could still be true with all of this. Like was mentioned R could have saved L at the end and they fell in love or what have you. Or maybe Jon and Dany are half siblings.

But don't slight this OP and say there is no evidence. Because that is an injustice. There's just not any solid unwavering evidence. And something this complicated fits GRRM's MO. I'm not saying it's verified fact, but it shouldn't be immediately discounted either.