Middle East/North Africa #11 - now with added Theoretical Collapse

[Usotsuki]

"The US ambassador to Libya has died after being attacked by militiamen storming the US consulate in the eastern city of Benghazi."

[Horza]

Reuters, citing an unnamed Libyan official, says the ambassador "had been on his way to a safer venue" after the consulate was attacked.

"The official said the ambassador and three other staff were killed when gunmen fired rockets at his car."

Tragic, horrible, pointless deaths. Fucking salafis.

[KAH]

Turkish town hit by missiles fired from Syrian territory.

Not verified what side launched the missiles, AFAICT.

Local news report that the Turkish government have initiated retaliatory artillery strikes in Syria, but take this with a grain of salt just yet.

[snake]

KAH,

I just read that Turkey has indeed shelled areas inside Syria. Syria is apologizing and investigating. Turkey has gone to the UNSC and called a meeting of NATO. They are also considering allowing troops the ability to pursue "bad guys" inside Syria as they do in Iraq.

Suicide bombers have also hit military targets in Syria.

The mess keeps getting messier.

Link.

[Horza]

Iran news:

Riots and bazaar closures as sanctions bite:

TEHRAN — The first outbreak of public anger over Iran’s collapsing currency and other economic maladies jolted the heart of the capital on Wednesday, with the riot police violently clamping down on black-market money changers, hundreds of citizens marching to demand relief and merchants in the sprawling bazaar closing their shops in protest.

Iranian air defence kinda shitty: fired on civilian aircraft, Iranian fighter:

“Iranian air defense units have taken inappropriate actions dozens of times, including firing antiaircraft artillery and scrambling aircraft against unidentified or misidentified targets,” noted a heavily classified Pentagon intelligence report, which added that the Iranian military’s communications were so inadequate and its training deficiencies so significant that “misidentification of aircraft will continue.”

Weird part is this:

In June 2007, the report noted, a Revolutionary Guards air defense unit fired a TOR-M1 surface-to-air missile at a civilian airliner.

One would think that would have a significant impact on its ability to stay airborne, so either their missiles suck or there's some kind of kill switch. Any war nerds want to chime in?

[snake]

Turkey continues to shell Syria as its parliament debates whether or not to allow cross-border excursions. Wild times to be sure.

Link.

[Horza]

*dusts off all-purpose MENA thread*

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is fighting for his life after a stroke, which is less than wonderful as he is a pretty important anchor in the Iraqi scene and was mediating a territorial dispute between the central government and Iraqi Kurdistan. Suffice to say, even if he does make a full recovery let's hope its swift, as Iraq could really do without the power vacuum.

[Rane]

And apparently France has decided to intervene in Mali and is now fighting alongside the Malian army to push the rebels back. Frankly, I surprised it took this long for them to do it, seeing as they have a long standing tradition of meddling in their former colonies, but I suppose that the threat of a total victory by the islamists finally pushed to action.

[Horza]

David Hirst has an interesting take on Kurdish independence moves amidst the Arab revolts.

[Horza]

An investigation by the US consulate in Istanbul suggests reports that Syrian regime forces used a chemical agent in an attack in Homs on Dec 23, 2012 are credible:

A secret State Department cable has concluded that the Syrian military likely used chemical weapons against its own people in a deadly attack last month, The Cable has learned.

United States diplomats in Turkey conducted a previously undisclosed, intensive investigation into claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons, and made what an Obama administration official who reviewed the cable called a "compelling case" that Assad's military forces had used a deadly form of poison gas.

The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23.

[...]

An Obama administration official who reviewed the document, which was classified at the "secret" level, detailed its contents to The Cable. "We can't definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23," the official said.

The compound in question could be Agent 15/BZ which is a 'nonlethal' hallucinogenic incapacitating agent, though reports from doctors in Homs attribute five deaths and 100 incapacitations to its use and aren't sure it was BZ.

The administration official leaking to FP thinks Assad is pushing Obama's redlines and that this is less than optimal:

"This reflects the concerns of many in the U.S. government that the regime is pursuing a policy of escalation to see what they can get away with as the regime is getting more desperate," the administration official said.

That the admin isn't bigging this up suggests a real reluctance to get involved. This is of concern to right-wing think tankers:

Outside analysts worry that the administration's red line may have shifted again.

"Given the fact you have that in a cable, this indicates that the Obama administration may not simply jump into the conflict because chemical agents are used," said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Assad has a much better idea now of what he can do and get away with."

"This shows that actually the red line on chemical weapons is not clear and that the regime may be able to use some chemical agents, and the response might not be immediate," he said.

But some guy who might know a bit about what taking action against the regime's chemical weapons stockpile has this to say:

On Jan. 11, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey said that the U.S. government and the international community doesn't have the capability to prevent Assad from using chemical weapons if he chooses to do so.

"The act of preventing the use of chemical weapons would be almost unachievable... because you would have to have such clarity of intelligence, you know, persistent surveillance, you'd have to actually see it before it happened, and that's -- that's unlikely, to be sure," Dempsey said. "I think that Syria must understand by now that the use of chemical weapons is unacceptable. And to that extent, it provides a deterrent value. But preventing it, if they decide to use it, I think we would be reacting."

[Horza]

And now State responds:

The State Department's head spokeswoman said Wednesday that the State Department cannot corroborate reports that the Syrian military used chemical weapons against its own people in the city of Homs last month.

[...]

Today, Nuland publicly acknowledged the existence of the secret cable for the first time but said that The Cable's report "did not accurately convey the anecdotal information that we had received from a third party regarding an alleged incident in Syria in December."

"At the time we looked into the allegations that were made and the information that we had received, and we found no credible evidence to corroborate or to confirm that chemical weapons were used," she said.

[...]

Syrian activists say that the circumstances surrounding the deaths in Homs make it impossible to be sure if or what chemical weapons were used, because of the horrible conditions there, the lack of access, and the lack of medical forensic equipment.

"It's difficult to know for sure what was used so all you have is whatever people saw and the symptoms," said Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. "If it is true that the regime used chemical weapons, they did it smartly by doing it in Homs, where it's hard to get to and hard to verify anything."

Fair enough. Though if similar incidents start getting reported I suspect standards of evidence might shift.

[snake]

A lot of people killed today in Syria as government forces push back. A lot killed in Homs by government forces and a nasty attack on a university in Aleppo most likely carried out by rebels.

Interesting to note that Kurds have been fighting both rebels and government forces. Seems they might be trying to take advantage of the chaos to further their own goals.

Link.

[KAH]

Schisms emerging between al-Nusra and FSA commanders.

al-Nusra apparently has been one of the more effective opponents of government forces, but I believe the FSA is better off without them in the long run.

[snake]

Schisms emerging between al-Nusra and FSA commanders.

al-Nusra apparently has been one of the more effective opponents of government forces, but I believe the FSA is better off without them in the long run.

That would be good news I think but I wonder how well the FSA would do without them and whether or not they could actually beat al-Nusra in the field. Time will tell I guess but friction within rebel ranks is most likely welcome news for government forces.

Man oh man. What a f'ed up situation.

[Horza]

Reuters: More than twenty short-range ballistic missiles fired in the past month.

Schisms emerging between al-Nusra and FSA commanders.

al-Nusra apparently has been one of the more effective opponents of government forces, but I believe the FSA is better off without them in the long run.

Great stuff again from Chulov (an Aussie, btw), particularly chilling quote from one of the former AQI guys on what they've learnt from the Awakening:

"There were mistakes made in Iraq. Killing people on camera, being so visibly connected to sectarian fighting. These things cannot be repeated," one member said.

[KAH]

That would be good news I think but I wonder how well the FSA would do without them and whether or not they could actually beat al-Nusra in the field. Time will tell I guess but friction within rebel ranks is most likely welcome news for government forces.

With Bashar al-Assad gone, al-Nusra would likely lose most of their foreign backing from Saudi-Arabia and Qatar, as well as the best excuse for being in Syria in the first place. It's one thing to be seen as supporting the toppling of a dictator, but their establishing of a government in place of Assad would just make them foreign usurpers. Every Syrian alive would gang up on them.

I think recent events break ground for a gradual shift of foreign (Saudi/Qatari) support from al-Nusra to the al-Tawhid Brigade, which, while still of Islamist bent, is mainly Syrian in origin.

Probably not something a lot of western countries would be overly happy about, but if you don't throw your chips on the table...well.

[Istakhr]

So today, middle east seems to be in a worse shape than ever before, most of the region is on the verge of collapse. Let's talk about destabilizing factors in middle east and speculate what can happen, what went wrong and when? and how it can affect the rest of the world and what, if anything, should the rest of the world do?

My list of the most important factors in no particular order:

- Syrian civil war: Not only this is a sort of proxy war between Western countries, Russia, Iran and Sunni countries for the syrians themselves it looks more and more like a war of annihilation, in which each side wants to simply slaughter all in the other side. This war can result in religious civil wars in Iraq and Lebanon. Also if Iraq and Syria go bust, the Kurdish problem will resurface which can hugely affect turkey.

- Iran Nuclear program: Iran is going to build nuclear weapons and there doesn't seem to be anything anybody can do (reasonably of course) to stop it. A nuclear Iran isn't really a life threat to Israel, US or anybody else. But a nuclear Iran will finally have the free reign to ignite Shia-Sunni civil wars in Arabian peninsula. Note that most of the oil in this area is either in zones with majority or big minorities of Shia muslims.

Even realistic military options against Iran (air war + embargo) won't stop Iran from becoming nuclear and/or cause regime change. Conversely these kinds of military conflict can probably maximize Islamic Republic's lifespan and also cause further destabilization in Iraq and AfPak region.

Israel will also see higher Iranian support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

-AfPak disaster zone :worried: : This one is like some fantasy setting for a spy novel, you have: Corrupt governments, nuclear weapons, drug trade, Islamic fundamentalists and sectarian strife, a healthy dose of ethnic conflict and hatred on top, plus an exploding young and poor population all in just two countries. The possibilities for near and/or long term disaster is endless and there is absolutely no chance of stability.

[straits]

And on top of that, a certain state, created on Palestinian clay, sits cozily nearby. And it cannot feasibly exist without being:

1) Armed to the teeth.

2) Antagonistic towards all neighboring countries.

3) Able to maintain unconditional support from the US.

[The Undead Martyr]

When was the last time the region was safely under imperial thumb stable? Probably the Ottomans... oh, wait, the brits fucked that up with their land-grab. Ditto with... just about everywhere, really, if it wasn't the brits it was the Belgians or the French or the US or some nomadic horse-archers from the east etc. etc...

Pakistan hasn't nuked anything or anyone yet. I'm more worried (sort of) about North Korea TA: than Iran, anyway. Right between China and SK, in missile range of Japan and maybe Hawaii, and a petty tyrant with absolutely no chance for internal reform... really, the only thing the West can really do is ignore them or invade them (assuming China et al are OK with that... big if, and now that they've got/are getting nukes I think not and in any event you know they'd move in at the end of an invasion) and hence why Korea's constant trolling is such a PITA.

In terms of specific countries/regimes as threats, I go Pakistan>>North Korea >> Iran >>>> Everyone else, though the Maghreb and East Africa are also regional thorns.

[All-for-Joffrey]

We already have a series of threads devoted to the Middle East but this title is so deliciously hyperbolic maybe the mods will let it stand on its own.

And on top of that, a certain state, created on Palestinian clay, sits cozily nearby. And it cannot feasibly exist without being:

1) Armed to the teeth.

2) Antagonistic towards all neighboring countries.

3) Able to maintain unconditional support from the US.

Israel can very well easily exist without meeting those three conditions.