Dany's death!

[A wilding]

Doran/Magister of Pentos/Varys/Illyrio were lucky that Cersei royally screwed up in a lot of ways and that LF was around. And I personally don't think that anyone could have forseen those circumstances even Varys. There is a big element of plot devicing there.

Only against a fragmented Seven Kingdoms.

Varys and Illyrio, at least, clearly recognised this, and Varys was scheming to disrupt Westeros at the right moment to help Dany (or Viserys originally presumably). Varys must have known of Cersei's indiscretions for a long time, and his plan seems to have been to make use of them when the moment was ripe.

He also ensured that Tywin would not be around in AFfC to get Westeros back together.

[Red Rex]

Varys and Illyrio, at least, clearly recognised this, and Varys was scheming to disrupt Westeros at the right moment to help Dany (or Viserys originally presumably). Varys must have known of Cersei's indiscretions for a long time, and his plan seems to have been to make use of them when the moment was ripe.

He also ensured that Tywin would not be around in AFfC to get Westeros back together.

the best spymasters are the ones that stay bought

[Red Rex]

Dany could not reclaim the throne whilst Robert was still there (even if they had a lot of Dothraki). Even Doran recognised that it would take a lot of resources and time and even then it was most likely a losing battle if he could not fragment the Arryn/Stark/Baratheon/Tully/Lannister alliance.

I disagree, and historical evidence is working against you here. the dothraki most resemble the mongols, and Drog most resembles Ghengis' horde. the reason i make this point is that 100,000 mounted dothraki screamers would trounce the army of Renly's and High Garden, and that's because EVERY one of Drogo's dothraki were "skilled warriors" in their own right while the armies of westeros are comprised maybe 10% of knights, 30% knights and skilled men at arms, and more than 60% of unskilled levies who are little more than arrow fodder... If Drogo could have ferried his ENTIRE khalasar to westeros, combined with Doran and Dany could have gained the Tyrell alliance Varys could have offed Robert himself and set the stage for a Targaryen reconquest...

[Ealasaid]

well the trick to not getting "arrested for assault" if called a cunt is spitting in the "cunt callers" face so "cunt caller" takes the 1st swing, then pummeling the guy into a bloody pulp is considered self defense, and the extremity of the extent of the beating can be explained away by psycological tendancies... just in case you were wondering how to get away with something like that...

hmmm.... it's true we have no relationship, and it is further more true that I've never been one to alter my actions simply to avoid agitating anyone BUT I dislike the notion that you'd think I used the term specifically to annoy you... I don't recall you ever going out of your way to annoy me, so it would hardly seem justifiable for me to do so to you without any prior provocation... so with the exception of calling Cersi cuntish, I'll do my best to restrain my "bad language" so I curtail the extent to which I limit your enjoyment on this board, fair enough?

First, in my state cunt is not one of those "fighting words" that will get a person a self-defense get out of jail cards. I'm a former district attorney, but I don't know about other states or provinces or countries. Could be different.

I don't want to limit your enjoyment of this board. I just wanted you to think about the effect it has on some women.

[Red Rex]

First, in my state cunt is not one of those "fighting words" that will get a person a self-defense get out of jail cards. I'm a former district attorney, but I don't know about other states or provinces or countries. Could be different.

I don't want to limit your enjoyment of this board. I just wanted you to think about the effect it has on some women.

hence the point of creating a distraction so no one notices u spitting in the other guys face and then the swing he takes at you and the following fight is considered to be self defense...

now what I dont get about this is that I'm not (and wouldn't on a message board) calling anyone whose a "real person" a cunt I only use the word in reference to Cersi, and Cersi fits the bill for that as far as I'm concerned, and "Cersi's Cunt" is a pleasant sounding combination of words

[Daemrion]

I disagree, and historical evidence is working against you here. the dothraki most resemble the mongols, and Drog most resembles Ghengis' horde. the reason i make this point is that 100,000 mounted dothraki screamers would trounce the army of Renly's and High Garden, and that's because EVERY one of Drogo's dothraki were "skilled warriors" in their own right while the armies of westeros are comprised maybe 10% of knights, 30% knights and skilled men at arms, and more than 60% of unskilled levies who are little more than arrow fodder...

And you are of course assuming that Drogo had the skill and cunning of Genghis, which I don't think is likely. The better strategic minds I think are on the Westerosi side (from what we have seen). And plus the Westerosi have a fleet. Iron fleet + Redywne Fleet would trounce any Dothraki force whilst they were trying to cross the sea. Dothraki only fight on horseback after all.

And of course you also discount any sort of innovation that could have been thought up by the Westerosi.

It is not a safe analogy to draw parallels between Genghis Khan and Khal Drogo.

[Red Rex]

And you are of course assuming that Drogo had the skill and cunning of Genghis, which I don't think is likely.

Ok, that of course is true enough BUT Drogo would appear to be damn close enough in the world he existed in. His hair had never been cut, true we have no evidence of childhood trauma which so defined Ghengis, but other than that there are many factors that one should consider:

Drogo had the largest khalasar, true he didnt free the slaves and rearm them BUT this is mainly because he inherited things Ghengis never did. And while Drogo might not be as insightful as Ghengis, he DID see the worth of Jorah Mormonts martial ability and gave him a place of honor because of it. Look in all honesty Ghengis Khan was without peer as the single greatest human being to ever walk the face of this earth, while Drogo wasn't THAT omnipotent Drogo ALSO didn't have the competition that Ghengis faced.

Drogo was undefeated both in single combat and in organized warfare...

The better strategic minds I think are on the Westerosi side (from what we have seen).

Now I disagree with this entirely, the better tacticians of westerosi warefare are of course the westerosi, but maybe I can put this into perspective for you:

picture a football field, on one side you have 100 division 2 college football players, across from them you got 10 nfl football players, 10 d-1 college football players, and 80 high school chess club members, who wins in a fight to the death?

And plus the Westerosi have a fleet. Iron fleet + Redywne Fleet would trounce any Dothraki force whilst they were trying to cross the sea. Dothraki only fight on horseback after all.

True enough but it was Ghengis' great grandson (i might be off on a great one way or another) who had the chinesse (best ship builders in the world at the time) construct the most massive fleet the world had ever seen to conquer japan, had the khan known that a fleet the size he desired couldnt be made up to standard in the time he had laid out japan would have been conquered. If Drogo had conquered the city of the greatest ship wright of the continent and patiently given them time to do their job to optimal ability and offered enough gold to attract the finest braavosi sell sails, it might have taken half a decade, but the crossing could have come to pass even with a unified westeros which as it turns out he wouldnt have been facing anyways

[Red Rex]

And of course you also discount any sort of innovation that could have been thought up by the Westerosi.

No actually I'm not, I know that heavily armored billmen and a number of other highly trained units whose positions are filled with men of common stock could be formed, but it is the sociologic disposition of westerosi lords, and the fact that the lords maintain their position of power by keeping a relatively ignorant unarmed peasant populous at bay and under their thumb by keeping the commoners relatively unskilled in all things martial that found this belief.

My theories foundation runs even deeper however, personally barring the occassional 3 week stints leading up to spring break or something I haven't truly worked out on a consistent basis for 4 years. However having gone back to the gym not a full two weeks now (and not even having what I'd consider more than 1/2 a work out under normal circumstances - dont start smoking if you want to be athletic) I already can throw a football 4/7 20yards through a tire, WHY because I spent an entire summer doing that, it's in my muscle memory.

So when you are debating innovations in westerosi warfare, you've not only got to consider the arms and armor but also the men who have trained with/and killed with those arms and armor, and understanding of the most efficient use of their weapons, the strategy and tactics to best employ their assets to advantage, point being that the weapon innovations of the bill hook could be thought up and created within the next 5 years (though we have no evidence it will be) but army infantry as heavily as knights isnt cost efficient or politically beneficial to the ruling class. And even if these things DID happen, you'd need squads of 15-17 year olds training for atleast 4 years and engaging in life or death combat with these arms to make them an effective battle field force

It is not a safe analogy to draw parallels between Genghis Khan and Khal Drogo.

probably not, but it is the closest linkage that the story allows for

[Daemrion]

Drogo was undefeated both in single combat and in organized warfare...

You do realise that he never faced anyone of worth. Remeber the Unsullied managed to slaughter Khals.

picture a football field, on one side you have 100 division 2 college football players, across from them you got 10 nfl football players, 10 d-1 college football players, and 80 high school chess club members, who wins in a fight to the death?

Look you could probably even argue that your Khal = Israeli Army and Westeros = Hezbollah fighters, I really don't see Israel winning that one soon, in fact maybe they won't even win. Imperfect analogies don't work. Especially ones that aren't really well thought of (like mine). But that just illustrates the point.

If Drogo had conquered the city of the greatest ship wright of the continent and patiently given them time to do their job to optimal ability and offered enough gold to attract the finest braavosi sell sails, it might have taken half a decade, but the crossing could have come to pass even with a unified westeros which as it turns out he wouldnt have been facing anyways

If Drogo did build the best ships - that would most likely be one of the free cities right. Most likely then everyone would be forewarned about his coming, and be prepared in anti-Dothraki warfare. And again, I reckon that Westerosi commanders and Free Cities Commanders show a lot more innovation than Drogo. This may be a difference of opinion but I haven't seen Drogo win a battle with anything besides superior numbers. Granted this can probably be said about almost every other battle commander in the series so far, this just shows the realism of the series, but I don't think that anywhere does it show that Drogo is anywhere near GK standard or even shows a greater tactical understanding than anyone else.

The only reason the Braavosi would ever ally with Drogo is if they thought that Robert would never pay the Iron Bank back. Braavos will protect its own interests first, and its current interest is that Robert borrows more and more money from them and they get more and more interest payments. Now Khal Drogo would obviously disrupt commerce, I don't think they would ally with him without substantial promises of continuing business and payment of all outstanding debts.

[Red Rex]

You do realise that he never faced anyone of worth. Remeber the Unsullied managed to slaughter Khals.

yes and Caesar brought down Vercingetorix, but not in single combat, organization and fearlessness in battle count for ALOT, your underestimation of the "worth" of Drogo's opponents is misplace in my opinion

I reckon that Westerosi commanders and Free Cities Commanders show a lot more innovation than Drogo.

why? shit England didnt change much (other than plate armor and the employment of the longbow) from Henry II until after the Black Prince died...

but I don't think that anywhere does it show that Drogo is anywhere near GK standard or even shows a greater tactical understanding than anyone else.

ok there is no GK in this series, but Drogo with Dany's interventions was both open minded and intelligent, he struck me as both adaptable and ruthless

The only reason the Braavosi would ever ally with Drogo is if they thought that Robert would never pay the Iron Bank back.

No, Drogo would have simply needed to sack and slaughter enough wealthy cities to pay the Braavosi's price

I don't think they would ally with him without substantial promises of continuing business and payment of all outstanding debts.

we are in agreement here, but dont forget that the bank of braavos never had any probs collecting gold from the Targaryens, and it was to be Rhaego sitting the Iron Throne

[DanteGabriel]

I guess no one remembers that little discussion between Dany and Jorah where Jorah points out that the Dothraki have no patience for siegecraft, and that any half-bright Westerosi lord would simply retreat behind fortifications when Drogo's putative screamers came calling.

Oh, but what does it matter? Look, another thread turns into an excuse for Red Rex to talk about what a bad-ass he is and make flawed historical analogies.

[morgoth]

Interesting reading folks! Please keep this up. I haven't had the urge to comment on anything for a while but will chime in when I feel there's something incorrect or needs to be added.

Aside...I was in Home Depot last night. There was this shorter (well, shorter than me) fat guy with glasses and a white beard with a hat on. I couldn't help but look at him. everywhere that I went in the store I ran into this guy. I was looking to pick up some #3000 half couplings and the guy was looking at some dry wall screws behind me...I said, "You look so familiar to me..." He just shrugged like he didn't know me from Adam...which is good. I then said, 'You look like an author of whose books I am reading..." He said, "Oh? Which author?" I said, "Martin. George RR Martin." He said, "Oh! I wonder why he put the 'rr' in his name? He's been writing for 30 some years now. I was just at his last book reading. What are your favorites?" I told him. I thought that for just 1 instant that maybe I was talking to Martin in Home Depot. Plus, he was doing renovations on his home. THEN...I remembered, he lives in New Mexico...why would he be in a Home Depot in NJ? He doesn't have any speaking engagements in NJ otherwise I would be going to see him. It was just funny to me. I knoew that it wasn't him but I kept thinking, "What if?" I would have talked his ear off.

Anyway, that's my little story.

I guess no one remembers that little discussion between Dany and Jorah where Jorah points out that the Dothraki have no patience for siegecraft, and that any half-bright Westerosi lord would simply retreat behind fortifications when Drogo's putative screamers came calling.

I do happen to remember that discussion.

[Enguerrand]

Dany could not reclaim the throne whilst Robert was still there (even if they had a lot of Dothraki).

Where do you get this from? Robert Baratheon, the first of his name, doesn’t share your opinion, but who is he to argue against your fictional omniscience.

Only against a fragmented Seven Kingdoms. Against a united Seven Kingdoms (maybe with the exception of Dorne), she would take a lot longer, perhaps more than a lifetime. She'd need to probably at least raise 250,000 men or so.

All they have to do is look like credible threat. Robert is aware of that he is an usurper and believes that there are plenty of houses ready to defect to a Targaryen force if he looks weak.

If you are talking about the Unsullied she would have never been able to get a couple of thousand infantry without having the dragons as a bargaining chip.

She got a thousand simply by selling Illyrios goods, so it doesn’t seem beyond her capabilities.

And you are of course assuming that Drogo had the skill and cunning of Genghis, which I don't think is likely.

Comparisons aside, Drogo is obviously a extraordinary leader and warrior, he has forged together the largest khallasar ever by a people that only recognises strength.

Iron fleet + Redywne Fleet would trounce any Dothraki force whilst they were trying to cross the sea.

Medieval sea battles were extremely rare and the crafts very primitive. If the westerosi ship are anything like their medieval counterparts finding and stopping an invasion fleet that isn’t interested in engaging would be all but impossible.

You do realise that he never faced anyone of worth.

What do you know of that, do you have Drogo’s CV somewhere? The dothraki are feared throughout the East and he is the said to be mightest khal that ever lived.

BUT this is mainly because he inherited things Ghengis never did.

The only thing Drogo inherited from his father was his bloodriders and his father’s enemies.

I guess no one remembers that little discussion between Dany and Jorah where Jorah points out that the Dothraki have no patience for siegecraft, and that any half-bright Westerosi lord would simply retreat behind fortifications when Drogo's putative screamers came calling.

He also said that the Westerosi forces couldn’t stand up too the Dothraki in open battle.

I see no reason why the houses ready to support the Targaryens couldn’t supply the siegecraft.

[morgoth]

Oh, but what does it matter? Look, another thread turns into an excuse for Red Rex to talk about what a bad-ass he is and make flawed historical analogies.

[Red Rex]

I guess no one remembers that little discussion between Dany and Jorah where Jorah points out that the Dothraki have no patience for siegecraft, and that any half-bright Westerosi lord would simply retreat behind fortifications when Drogo's putative screamers came calling.

Ok, so the lords retreat behind their high walls, Drogo's dothraki slaughter everyone of the lords small folk, salt the fields cut off any provisions to the lords castles and eventually ambush the lords forces when they are forced to leave the safety of the castle, not terribly hard to defeat such tactics

Oh, but what does it matter? Look, another thread turns into an excuse for Red Rex to talk about what a bad-ass he is and make flawed historical analogies.

haha you don't think Mormonts views were colored by a certain amount of ethnocentrism?

Dante with the way you follow me around the boards and constantly comment on me I'd say your either my biggest fan or rather jealous you don't see me constantly commenting on your narrow minded unimaginative 1 dimensional take on things on every topic now do you

[DanteGabriel]

Ok, so the lords retreat behind their high walls, Drogo's dothraki slaughter everyone of the lords small folk, salt the fields cut off any provisions to the lords castles and eventually ambush the lords forces when they are forced to leave the safety of the castle, not terribly hard to defeat such tactics

The Dothraki might run into some problems when the lords of Westeros collect their harvests, burn their fields, and pull into their castles, like Blackfish did at Riverrun. Those hundreds of thousands of horses the Dothraki bring with them will go hungry pretty quickly.

Dante with the way you follow me around the boards and constantly comment on me I'd say your either my biggest fan or rather jealous you don't see me constantly commenting on your narrow minded unimaginative 1 dimensional take on things on every topic now do you

I'm hoping to shame you into no longer turning every thread into one about yourself. Silly me, the best thing is to ignore you, because even pointing out what sad little ego-stroking exercises you indulge yourself with just brings you the validation you so desperately seem to crave.

It seems like it's been a while since you threw any spectacular temper tantrums, though, so I guess that's progress.

[Red Rex]

The Dothraki might run into some problems when the lords of Westeros collect their harvests, burn their fields, and pull into their castles, like Blackfish did at Riverrun.

Dante that only works when crops are ready to be harvested and if the Dothraki dont have a base to bring in supplies (which they would have in dorne), and if the dothraki slaughter all the lords small folk there's no one to collect the next harvest, so it sets of a count down to starvation

I'm hoping to shame you into no longer turning every thread into one about yourself.

Dante, I wouldn't want to be anyone but myself, I'm completely without shame, I honestly find your pursuit of this objective hysterical

Silly me, the best thing is to ignore you, because even pointing out what sad little ego-stroking exercises you indulge yourself with just brings you the validation you so desperately seem to crave.

I'd say you'd be better off ignoring me, you're certainly not going to change anything about how I act, that's for certain. I dont desperately crave anything on this board but to discuss a series I'm intensely interested in, but I'd never pretend to be less pleased with myself than I actually am, false humility is just as repugnant as false pride, I'm top 90% across the board Dante, if you ever have something I want that could be obtained more easily through negotiation than simply taking it from you THEN we can negotiate terms, until then do us both a favor and find someone else to critique who actually cares about you trying to "shame them"

NOW since Morgoth has gotten his latest installment of Red Rex Vs Dante confrontational posts why don't we go back to focusing ON THE TOPIC (ps. nothing I share about myself is NOT related to the topic, it is simply an explanation of how I've come to certain conclusions, if you think that throwing a football muscle memory is any different than nabbing someone with a bill hook critique THAT because I'd be interested to hear a contrary opinion on the matter)

[Ealasaid]

[

NOW since Morgoth has gotten his latest installment of Red Rex Vs Dante confrontational posts why don't we go back to focusing ON THE TOPIC (ps. nothing I share about myself is NOT related to the topic, it is simply an explanation of how I've come to certain conclusions, if you think that throwing a football muscle memory is any different than nabbing someone with a bill hook critique THAT because I'd be interested to hear a contrary opinion on the matter)

[Red Rex]

The topic was Dany's death.

And I can't imagine that happening before the last book. IMHO she has to get the dragons to Westeros and become the catalyst.

I agree, and Martin has said he's throwing a monkey wrench into the whole series and that no one would suspect who'll sit the iron throne, which has led me to thinking it will be either 1) Quentyn Martell (Targaryen ancestry through the sister of Daeron II) 2) a Blackfyre princlling who is young when he meets Dany initially, but becomes a man by the last book. With the whole "unsuspected monarch" quote one would think this might mean Dany's impending doom, I guess it would be possible if Dany married a Blackfyre and the final battle with the others happens on a day with a nearly full day eclipse that only cuts off as the sun sets, then the "sun would rise in the west" Dany's womb could quicken and during the later months of her pregnancy her husband could assume the throne in his own right usurping Dany's place, otherwise I think she must die...

[mormont]

I agree, and Martin has said he's throwing a monkey wrench into the whole series and that no one would suspect who'll sit the iron throne, which has led me to thinking it will be either 1) Quentyn Martell (Targaryen ancestry through the sister of Daeron II) 2) a Blackfyre princlling who is young when he meets Dany initially, but becomes a man by the last book. With the whole "unsuspected monarch" quote one would think this might mean Dany's impending doom, I guess it would be possible if Dany married a Blackfyre and the final battle with the others happens on a day with a nearly full day eclipse that only cuts off as the sun sets, then the "sun would rise in the west" Dany's womb could quicken and during the later months of her pregnancy her husband could assume the throne in his own right usurping Dany's place, otherwise I think she must die...

RR, can you actually provide a source for this quote? I suspect you're mis-stating it slightly.

By the way, I'm glad to hear you're in the top 90% across the board. It's nice that you can look down on 10% of the population.