Is Stannis alive at the beginning of TWOW? (GRRM's comment)

[MorgulisMaximus]

On September 1, 2015 at 1:45 PM, Nordahl iceskin said:

by that logic Stannis maybe dead at the end of ADwD, and alive at the start of TWoW. Meaning he is both dead and alive, a real Schrodinger's cat situation, so for GRRM to say he is alive is not a lie, but he could also say he's dead and it might be equally true.

 

His statement proves absolutely nothing, other than we haven't seen him die definitively, but we also have not seen him survive the battle. The media are just grasping for anything they can use. 

Ha! GRRM is a clever clever man. Talking up the differences between the books and the TV series is ultimately vital to maximizing future book sales! Clever clever. 

Ultimately, Benioff and Weiss know how GRRM envisions the series to end (because he actually told them). And ultimately Schrodinger's Stag is either dead or irrelevant enough to kill off on the TV series. Of course, GRRM may have had a change of heart after talking to Benioff and Weiss... GRR.. GRR... GRREED!

[The Arthur Smith]

Well with the chronological order of aDwD and WoW, this can be interpreted differently. By narration, Stannis is alive at the beginning of WoW, or by timeline order, Stannis is dead at the end of aDwD if the battle already took place before Jon's death.
 

[Stag_legion]

12 minutes ago, The Arthur Smith said:

Well with the chronological order of aDwD and WoW, this can be interpreted differently. By narration, Stannis is alive at the beginning of WoW, or by timeline order, Stannis is dead at the end of aDwD if the battle already took place before Jon's death.
 

Unlikely, if stannis was dead Bolton would either send Stannis' head or sword with a courier as proof of his death, or even better they would have marched on the wall. The pink letter makes it obvious that Ramasy and the boltons are not in a position to take what they want and instead hope to intimidate Jon to giving them what they want.

That is all of course if Ramasy is even the author of the letter.

[The Arthur Smith]

5 minutes ago, Stag_legion said:

Unlikely, if stannis was dead Bolton would either send Stannis' head or sword with a courier as proof of his death, or even better they would have marched on the wall. The pink letter makes it obvious that Ramasy and the boltons are not in a position to take what they want and instead hope to intimidate Jon to giving them what they want.

That is all of course if Ramasy is even the author of the letter.

I'm still assuming that Stannis will die from the battle. I don't believe that the pink letter is from Ramsay though. I'm predicting that Stannis and Ramsay will die in the battle and that the letter is from Mance Rayder imo. Sadly i feel that my Mannis won't be surviving in this book.

 

[Ruhail]

Well if hes going to burn Shireen then he cant be dead from the battle i suspect the pink letter author was more trying to goad jon with its contents than the contents itself be the focus

[MorgulisMaximus]

1 hour ago, Ruhail said:

Well if hes going to burn Shireen then he cant be dead from the battle i suspect the pink letter author was more trying to goad jon with its contents than the contents itself be the focus

A letter stating "Please help. Arya in danger!" would have been just as effective. An elaborate ruse requiring a letter made of human skin is like boiling the ocean to make a cup of tea.

The fact that the letter is not completely truthful is completely in line with Ramsay's personality. Ramsay is always a tricky devil. The motivation for the letter is completely in line with Ramsay's immdeiate situation. Most likely the letter is authored by Ramsay.

Just because GRRM has had fake letters before does not make every letter a fake letter. False information has always been used to great advantage throughout the history of warfare. So its good to be skeptical. But being unreasonably skeptical results in paranoia and hence crazy theories.

[YouKnowNothingJonSnow]

I don't think this really is that newsworthy given what we know from the Theon chapter (Stannis very much alive) and what we know about the chronology (end of aDwD after the beginning of Winds).

I will say I think the Pink Letter is very much from Ramsay, but of course, it has a lot of things in it that are untrue. We just don't know which, yet.

EDIT: On further reflection, maybe the PL isn't Ramsay. There are many differences that are noteworthy (no real button/seal, not in blood, not on skin, etc) that would seem to be there if Ramsay really wrote it. However, I just don't see the point of an elaborate Stannis/Theon ruse. Elaborate deceptions don't necessarily strike me as Stannis' style, either.

 

 

[MorgulisMaximus]

13 hours ago, YouKnowNothingJonSnow said:

 

EDIT: On further reflection, maybe the PL isn't Ramsay. There are many differences that are noteworthy (no real button/seal, not in blood, not on skin, etc) that would seem to be there if Ramsay really wrote it. However, I just don't see the point of an elaborate Stannis/Theon ruse. Elaborate deceptions don't necessarily strike me as Stannis' style, either.

 

 

 

Stannis talks to Maester Tybald who admits ravens are trained to only travel one route... Tybald then pisses himself real good.

A good dog trainer can name each of his dogs on sight even when he has dozens of the exact same breed. No doubt the Maester of Ravens at Castle Black can distinguish between his individual ravens. Whenever a Raven arrives the Maester need only look at the raven to determine where the message is coming from. Hence pink letter MUST be coming from Winterfell.

 

[Endymion I Targaryen]

He definitely is alive and I think he will win the Battle of Ice.Many times we have believed that a character died (Arya in SOS, Brienne and Davos in FFC) just to learn that he survived. 

[MorgulisMaximus]

On March 3, 2016 at 6:13 AM, King Endymion Targaryen said:

He definitely is alive and I think he will win the Battle of Ice.Many times we have believed that a character died (Arya in SOS, Brienne and Davos in FFC) just to learn that he survived. 

GRRM said he is 100% alive and that is why you should be worried. Stannis barely survived The Battle of the Blackwater. It was a devastating loss but he survived because he abandoned his fleet and fled. Note that Melissandre was not present.

Stannis will survive if he does the same thing again, i.e. abandons his frozen army and flees. Once again, he should have brought along Mel for the battle.

Truth is, Stannis isn't all that hot without Mel by his side. He might have never defeated Renly and his storyline would have ended there. GRRM was long been hinting that Stannis is a false prophet. False prophets always die because otherwise they wouldn't be false.

Stannis might very well smash the 3000 man Frey contingent. GRRM wants to raise up your hopes before suddenly and utterly crushing them with a gruesome death for Stannis at the hands of the Bastard of Bolton. Ultimately this paves the way for the Battle of the Bastards... also known by the less lore-friendly Snow Bowl or "Snows before Crows".

[MorgulisMaximus]

Notice how there are no chapters in any of the books from Stannis's perspective. It is possible that there will be no first hand account of The Battle of Ice (those waiting for it will be dissapointed). There are also no perspectives from anyone inside of Winterfell. Logically, this makes a non-fake Ramsay letter a necessity in order to advance the plot (assuming that Theon and Asha escape before the battle). Without the letter, another form of second-hand account would still be needed. GRRM probably rightly concluded the pink letter was the best way to go because it is short and sweet (shock and awe)... and just ambiguous enough to spark endless conspiracy theories among readers.

Next, what is GRRM's purpose of sending Mance Rayder to Winterfell? And what is GRRM's purpose for keeping him alive when Roose Bolton could just as easily flayed and beheaded him (the more natural inclination for Bolton)? Rather simple. GRRM needs a realistic motivation for the Wildings to join Jon Snow in an assault on Winterfell. If Mance is elsewhere or if Mance is dead, the Wildlings will have no motivation for Jon's northern politics and will likely desert any attempt to force them to lay down their lives for an alien cause. Conclusion: the Wildings will indeed attack Winterfell.

Finally, it should be rather obvious that Ramsay would not demand Jon to send him Arya and Reek if Stannis's forces and Umbers were still lurking around outside the Walls of Winterfell. Without a clear road into Winterfell, his lies would immediately be exposed. Worse, his immediate enemy would get Arya and could use her effectively for propaganda right in front of Winterfell's gates (the fact that Ramsay knows Stannis does not do this and instead sends fake Arya to Castle Black is yet another clue that Stannis has already been defeated). Now none of this necessarily means Stannis is dead (GRRM has a habit of keeping these things ambiguous so that he can bring characters back later if he needs them for a purpose). But the conclusion is that Stannis has indeed been defeated and his forces scattered or decimated. The northerners among his troops have a much better chance of surviving After the rout because they are accustomed to the cold and dressed appropriately for the weather. GRRM makes clear that the southeners were already in very bad shape (inappropriate winter gear, suffering greater starvation, etc.) before the battle and hence will likely be wiped out.

[JonSnowed]

I agree with MLR. While I appreciate that there are those who have read the books far more than me and I originally thought Stannis would have a role to play in supporting Jon, with the show leaks/spoilers I think it's clear the direction where Winds is heading with Stannis and his eventual death.

[aFeastForDragons]

On 5 March 2016 at 2:20 AM, MLR said:

Notice how there are no chapters in any of the books from Stannis's perspective. It is possible that there will be no first hand account of The Battle of Ice (those waiting for it will be dissapointed). 

 

George has told us the Battle of ice will be in the next book, it was cut from ADWD and pushed forward. We have Theon and Asha to give us POVs. 

 

On 3 March 2016 at 0:56 PM, MLR said:

Truth is, Stannis isn't all that hot without Mel by his side. He might have never defeated Renly and his storyline would have ended there. GRRM was long been hinting that Stannis is a false prophet. False prophets always die because otherwise they wouldn't be false.

Stannis might very well smash the 3000 man Frey contingent. GRRM wants to raise up your hopes before suddenly and utterly crushing them with a gruesome death for Stannis at the hands of the Bastard of Bolton. Ultimately this paves the way for the Battle of the Bastards... also known by the less lore-friendly Snow Bowl or "Snows before Crows".

 

No he would have been slaughtered by Renly's force but he wasn't on a suicide mission there, he knew Mel had a plan up her…emmm…sleeve….. 

This time it is a suicide mission but you are forgetting about Manderly's forces, he is waiting on any chance to turn on the Frey's and the Boltons. Not to mention if Davos returns with Rickon then Manderly has vowed to support Stannis with all his troops. I wouldn't take anything from the show as what will happen next book. They've twisted the plot around a lot so certain characters have taken the place of others.

 

 

[joluoto2]

Yes, Stannis is alive.

We know he is alive in TWoW chapter already, since we have read Theon I.

[bemused]

On 3/2/2016 at 9:34 PM, MLR said:

 

Stannis talks to Maester Tybald who admits ravens are trained to only travel one route... Tybald then pisses himself real good.

A good dog trainer can name each of his dogs on sight even when he has dozens of the exact same breed. No doubt the Maester of Ravens at Castle Black can distinguish between his individual ravens. Whenever a Raven arrives the Maester need only look at the raven to determine where the message is coming from. Hence pink letter MUST be coming from Winterfell.

 

This would be Clydas, with his poor eyesight... Whose fear when he delivers the letter may be because he knows there's something wrong with it..  smeared wax instead of seal, etc. .. He may know the raven did not come from WF.. He may know the conspirators have opened and read the letter, or worse, forged a new one making certain additions of their own..

The Theon chapter implies that Bran and Bloodraven have taken control of Tybald's ravens. They could  be able to cause the ravens to fly wherever they liked.

Nothing is certain, here.

[MorgulisMaximus]

On 3/18/2016 at 5:36 PM, bemused said:

This would be Clydas, with his poor eyesight... Whose fear when he delivers the letter may be because he knows there's something wrong with it..  smeared wax instead of seal, etc. .. He may know the raven did not come from WF.. He may know the conspirators have opened and read the letter, or worse, forged a new one making certain additions of their own..

The Theon chapter implies that Bran and Bloodraven have taken control of Tybald's ravens. They could  be able to cause the ravens to fly wherever they liked.

Nothing is certain, here.

Regardless of Clydas' poor eyesight, he would certainly know if the raven is a Winterfell raven, a Whiteharbor raven or a Dreadfort raven. Simple logic tells us that raven-mail can't work if the sender has absolutely no idea where his raven is going. These ravens are not one-time use. They are used over-and-over again along a dedicated route for many years.

Yes, ultimately GRRM controls all the ravens in Westeros. He can certainly warg them to wherever he wishes. So, yes nothing is certain... until the TWoW hits the printing presses.

That said, I do not believe GRRM would choose such a convoluted way to trick Jon Snow into marching on Winterfell. I think the convolution in this theory is due to readers who are subconsciously twisting the story into what they want. Prime among those subconscious desires is the wish to see Stannis succeed or at least survive a little longer.  As GRRM says, people see what they want to see. But GRRM is a harsh and unforgiving god (the one true god of Westeros)... and he rarely gives readers what they want. More bitter, less sweet. That's the way GRRM likes it.

[bemused]

7 hours ago, MorgulisMaximus said:

Yes, ultimately GRRM controls all the ravens in Westeros. He can certainly warg them to wherever he wishes. So, yes nothing is certain... until the TWoW hits the printing presses.

That said, I do not believe GRRM would choose such a convoluted way to trick Jon Snow into marching on Winterfell. I think the convolution in this theory is due to readers who are subconsciously twisting the story into what they want. Prime among those subconscious desires is the wish to see Stannis succeed or at least survive a little longer.  As GRRM says, people see what they want to see. But GRRM is a harsh and unforgiving god (the one true god of Westeros)... and he rarely gives readers what they want. More bitter, less sweet. That's the way GRRM likes it.

GRRM has written Jon's last chapter in such a convoluted way as to trick some readers into thinking Jon actually intended to march on Winterfell.... Events, thoughts, etc. laid down in the previous novels, as well as this one, seem to foreshadow that this is not his actual intention (at this time). Rather, his thoughts have told us that the best way to defend against an attack on CB from the south, is to ride out and ambush the attackers on their way. (We've also been told, by Jon himself, that it would be futile to try to take WF by seige.)

We've been shown that the wildlings will follow a strong leader, a brave leader who will not be intimidated. The pink letter insults Jon, taunts him, dares him to come to WF. His shieldhall speech is calculated to win the support of the wildlings. We're plainly shown this by Tormund... 

Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. “Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that’s how it’s done. We’ll make a wildling o’ you yet, boy. Har!”

Having "made them his".. can we think that if he said afterwards (i.e.) .. Ramsay was on his way and they'd confront him on the road.. that they would change their minds ? No. The first step was, win them over. We don't know what the next step was actually to be, thanks to Marsh &co., and the end of the chapter.

There are definitely Stannis fanatics out there, but I'm not one of them. I don't want anything for Stannis, but I do try to predict what will happen based on the clues I think we've been given.

Edit :

So: We will see him alive in TWoW. He's pretty clever, and has a good chance of winning his battle.

Because there is definitely some collusion going on between the northmen, I think his chances of gaining control of WF are slim to none. The northmen are fighting to gain control of WF for the Starks, not Stannis.

They may see Stannis as a lesser evil than the Boltons, Freys and Lannisters, but they wouldn't want to be ruled by him.

I think Stannis' ambitions are doomed one way or another, but I think he'll survive for a while, yet.

[MorgulisMaximus]

31 minutes ago, bemused said:

We've been shown that the wildlings will follow a strong leader, a brave leader who will not be intimidated. The pink letter insults Jon, taunts him, dares him to come to WF. His shieldhall speech is calculated to win the support of the wildlings. We're plainly shown this by Tormund... 

Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. “Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that’s how it’s done. We’ll make a wildling o’ you yet, boy. Har!”

Having "made them his".. can we think that if he said afterwards (i.e.) .. Ramsay was on his way and they'd confront him on the road.. that they would change their minds ? No. The first step was, win them over.

Good observations! I missed those details. It looks like the Hand of God (GRRM) is guiding Jon along a similar path to Danaerys. Dany's actions won her the respect and loyalty of the freed slaves and Unsullied. Jon is beginning to win over the hearts-and-minds of the Wildlings with a little guidance from Tormund.

[bemused]

10 minutes ago, MorgulisMaximus said:

Good observations! I missed those details. It looks like the Hand of God (GRRM) is guiding Jon along a similar path to Danaerys. Dany's actions won her the respect and loyalty of the freed slaves and Unsullied. Jon is beginning to win over the hearts-and-minds of the Wildlings with a little guidance from Tormund.

(Thanks..)

There are some very interesting parallels between Jon and Dany. ..and yeah, I'd be very surprised if part of Jon and Tormund's two hour brainstorming session didn't include some coaching from Tormund on how best to address the free folk .