Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is relevant because you say that powerful lords won't believe Jon's identity, and thus oppose him. I'm saying that the ones in charge of the North, Vale and Riverlands will believe him, because Howland Reed and something left in the crypts will carry weight with them. Not to mention if Bran reveals something magically.

No I didn't say they wouldn't believe the story, I said I can't imagine why they should and how they would be convinced. 

And if they believed then Jon wouldn't be a King in the North or another half-Westeros king but rather a pretender to the Iron Throne. That's what comes with being a Targaryen prince. Winterfell is not going to be enough then.

And I don't think Lyanna's son by Rhaegar has a particularly strong claim to the North anyway.

 

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

With the dead-and-resurrection thing for Jon in the making I see a much greater chance that he is going to bite the dust in the process of the story than Dany. He is already ideally positioned to become the hero who is sort of consumed to his task to save the world, etc. Unlike Daenerys (who has the prospect of retaking her father's throne) Jon lives for his mission and does not expect to do anything else than save the realms of men from the Others. So that could very well be his final fate.

I think pretty much everybody should find a smoking wounds or burning blood zombie to be a particularly great king to rebuild the Realm. The idea that the Jesus-like resurrection is going to be allowed to live a mundane life to become some kind of Jaehaerys I king would be very strange. The only setting where something like that sort of worked was Babylon 5. But even there Sheridan didn't have a normal life after his resurrection. Even Frodo had to go into the West and he didn't even die in the process of the story.

But then, he could be the father of Dany's child or something of that sort.

I think the chances are pretty high that these two will hook up in some fashion. That's what the whole Jon-Tyrion bromance was all about in AGoT.

If you think about it a believable scenario in which anybody in Dany's camp will actually believe the Jon Snow story is very difficult to imagine. If there is an outside incentive - like, say, Jon having really good information about the Others - or some sort of romantic link between them then an alliance/hookup would make sense.

But even then the idea that anybody would believe the story of the wise old man from the swamps doesn't make much sense. In no setting something like that would be convenient from a realpolitik perspective. Even if Rhaegar's marriage to Lyanna was public knowledge (as I think it was) the fact that the child Eddard Stark raised as his bastard was actually a child from that union cannot really be proven unless you want to believe it.

And I've enormous difficulties imagining a situation in which a majority of the lords or people of Westeros want to believe such a story.

Oh, I certainly agree with all this. But what stops GRRM (as FNR suggests) to just make this out of thin air? Granted, it would not be the series I thought I was reading, but if he is right GRRM have been writing a pretty straightforward fantasy story with sligtly more twists and turns. I am pretty certain that he is not, but its not as I can say definitly. I am not GRRM. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No I didn't say they wouldn't believe the story, I said I can't imagine why they should and how they would be convinced. 

And if they believed then Jon wouldn't be a King in the North or another half-Westeros king but rather a pretender to the Iron Throne. That's what comes with being a Targaryen prince. Winterfell is not going to be enough then.

And I don't think Lyanna's son by Rhaegar has a particularly strong claim to the North anyway.

 

You misrepresent my argument again. The timing has a drastic impact on the outcome.

In my scenario Jon's identity is only revealed late in the story at the point when Bran and/or Rickon are available to replace him as ruler of Winterfell and tp assume rulership of Riverrun.

Jon will only then cease to become King in the North and become a Targaryen claimant supported by the rulers of the Vale, North and Riverlands.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You misrepresent my argument again. The timing has a drastic impact on the outcome.

In my scenario Jon's identity is only revealed late in the story at the point when Bran and/or Rickon are available to replace him as ruler of Winterfell and tp assume rulership of Riverrun.

Jon will only then cease to become King in the North and become a Targaryen claimant supported by the rulers of the Vale, North and Riverlands.

 

But that doesn't make any sense. They would not push for him to take the Iron Throne in the face of the threat the Others pose. And if it suddenly turned out he was a false king because he was not Eddard Stark's son and Robb Stark's brother then this would weaken his claim, not strengthen it. People wanting the North to remain independent would even dismiss such a stupid idea or try to suppress it. Not to mention that the other surviving children of Eddard Stark would then perhaps decide that one of them should be King in the North.

[Protagoras]

Yeah, I agree with Lord Varys the North should react badly to this. I have a hard time seeing the isolationist North pushing for a kingship for Jon on the Iron throne. For them, his lineage will be irrelevant. 

And with what forces? Holding the north is one thing but protecting enough power in the south is not something the Starks have succeded with in the past. At best, they were able to install another, not take power themselves. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

If Jon becomes King (which I think he will be) it'll be after the War for the Dawn, not before.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Oh, I certainly agree with all this. But what stops GRRM (as FNR suggests) to just make this out of thin air? Granted, it would not be the series I thought I was reading, but if he is right GRRM have been writing a pretty straightforward fantasy story with sligtly more twists and turns. I am pretty certain that he is not, but its not as I can say definitly. I am not GRRM. 

Well, considering that this Jon-Dany thing clearly lies at the heart of the story as he has written it up until now I'm pretty sure he knows in theory how to resolve it. I mean, we all know how it will go. The Targaryens marry their own and Jon and Dany are nephew and aunt.

If George wanted Jon Snow as the hidden prince he would have been more a Simon-like character from Tad Williams' Osten Ard series. He would have been at the heart of the entire story, not at the vicinity solely connected to the ice demons plot. We would see the bastard making connections with the important people, falling in love with the right girls, and in general impressing everybody he meets on the road. Then the revelation of his heritage could also open the way to the throne for him because everybody would like him anyway.

But this series is giving us nothing of this sort. Unless Dany/Tyrion or Aegon accept Jon Snow as one of their own and adopt him into the Targaryen family he does not stand a chance in the game of thrones. Even if the bastard saved the Realm singlehandedly from the Others (an unlikely scenario) Martin's lords would just thank him and grant him some men to rebuild the Wall (or even have his head in the end for letting the wildlings in if that ends up being a (minor) problem). Royal birth matters in this society and what the entire North thinks of Jon Snow's parentage is not likely to help him down in the South. The man even follows the wrong gods to sit the Iron Throne.

1 hour ago, Protagoras said:

Yeah, I agree with Lord Varys the North should react badly to this. I have a hard time seeing the isolationist North pushing for a kingship for Jon on the Iron throne. For them, his lineage will be irrelevant. 

And with what forces? Holding the north is one thing but protecting enough power in the south is not something the Starks have succeded with in the past. At best, they were able to install another, not take power themselves. 

FNR imagines everything is going to fall into Jon's lap because the North, the Vale (through Sansa, who has nothing better to do than make Jon king), and the Riverlords (for reasons I don't understand) will all declare for him (both as Stark king as well as Targaryen king).

Especially the latter is very unlikely in light of the Riverlords own troubles as well as the Tully feelings for Ned Stark's bastards. Down there nobody is going to buy shit about some resurrected dude now free from his Night's Watch vows (if that's what's going to happen) nor will any of the Riverlords see it as a good idea to continue that stupid secessionist thing. They want their revenge, and once Catelyn has dealt with the Freys she might plan to target the Lannisters. That is not going to work without making alliances in the South.

But even the Vale idea is problematic. Littlefinger's Winterfell idea seems to be a thing for next spring. Going North in the middle of winter is a stupid idea and will thus simply not happen. But with Aegon (and eventually Dany) arriving in the South the Vale might eventually be forced to choose a side. Especially since Sansa of all people has every interest to remove Cersei and put an end to the Lannister dynasty so she can finally show her face again. She is still suspected to be an accomplice in regicide. And while Tommen and Myrcella live and the Baratheon dynasty is in charge nobody will forget this.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

If Jon becomes King (which I think he will be) it'll be after the War for the Dawn, not before.

I don't expect him to become king but if he does it will only work in a union with Daenerys or as her if their union is cut short because she dies in the battle and he survives. But then it will be as her acknowledged heir.

[Jaak]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Especially since Sansa of all people has every interest to remove Cersei and put an end to the Lannister dynasty so she can finally show her face again. She is still suspected to be an accomplice in regicide. And while Tommen and Myrcella live and the Baratheon dynasty is in charge nobody will forget this.

Tommen living and being called Baratheon does not mean he´s in charge, nor that any Lannister is. With Kevan dead, Cersei a prisoner, and Damon and Daven busy holding the West, how about Tyrells clearing Margaery and scapegoating Cersei as far as they can do without tainting Tommen? Would there be any way to clear Sansa for being an accomplice while making her a witness against Tyrion?

[Lion of the West]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon II would bully his weak brother into abdicating or feed him to his dragon (or kill him in a different way).

No reason to think so, and no reason to think that Daeron wouldn't have set aside his crown on his own accord. But I understand your need to slander Aegon II.

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, considering that this Jon-Dany thing clearly lies at the heart of the story as he has written it up until now I'm pretty sure he knows in theory how to resolve it. I mean, we all know how it will go. The Targaryens marry their own and Jon and Dany are nephew and aunt.

If George wanted Jon Snow as the hidden prince he would have been more a Simon-like character from Tad Williams' Osten Ard series. He would have been at the heart of the entire story, not at the vicinity solely connected to the ice demons plot. We would see the bastard making connections with the important people, falling in love with the right girls, and in general impressing everybody he meets on the road. Then the revelation of his heritage could also open the way to the throne for him because everybody would like him anyway.

But this series is giving us nothing of this sort. Unless Dany/Tyrion or Aegon accept Jon Snow as one of their own and adopt him into the Targaryen family he does not stand a chance in the game of thrones. Even if the bastard saved the Realm singlehandedly from the Others (an unlikely scenario) Martin's lords would just thank him and grant him some men to rebuild the Wall (or even have his head in the end for letting the wildlings in if that ends up being a (minor) problem). Royal birth matters in this society and what the entire North thinks of Jon Snow's parentage is not likely to help him down in the South. The man even follows the wrong gods to sit the Iron Throne.

FNR imagines everything is going to fall into Jon's lap because the North, the Vale (through Sansa, who has nothing better to do than make Jon king), and the Riverlords (for reasons I don't understand) will all declare for him (both as Stark king as well as Targaryen king).

Especially the latter is very unlikely in light of the Riverlords own troubles as well as the Tully feelings for Ned Stark's bastards. Down there nobody is going to buy shit about some resurrected dude now free from his Night's Watch vows (if that's what's going to happen) nor will any of the Riverlords see it as a good idea to continue that stupid secessionist thing. They want their revenge, and once Catelyn has dealt with the Freys she might plan to target the Lannisters. That is not going to work without making alliances in the South.

But even the Vale idea is problematic. Littlefinger's Winterfell idea seems to be a thing for next spring. Going North in the middle of winter is a stupid idea and will thus simply not happen. But with Aegon (and eventually Dany) arriving in the South the Vale might eventually be forced to choose a side. Especially since Sansa of all people has every interest to remove Cersei and put an end to the Lannister dynasty so she can finally show her face again. She is still suspected to be an accomplice in regicide. And while Tommen and Myrcella live and the Baratheon dynasty is in charge nobody will forget this.

I don't expect him to become king but if he does it will only work in a union with Daenerys or as her if their union is cut short because she dies in the battle and he survives. But then it will be as her acknowledged heir.

Hmm, I actually do think that the Vales army will go north. It makes for a better convoluted plot. And Littlefinger have the cash and the supplies.

I agree with you though, that Jons way to power seems unlikely, yet R+L=J must have some meaning, some impact on the books. A marriage is indeed the best way to solve it, but it requires on instant love or some kind of Daenerys need of Jon (And maybe Jon won´t like Daenerys either). I hope GRRM has worked out something not too cheesy.

I have been speculating for a while about a more "evil" Jon returning from the dead, but that didn´t match at all to what happened in the show (and I believe what happens there has some relevance). I assume Robbs will gives him power, but the same time they find out that he is a Targ and not Ned Starks son (aka the reason he was in that will in the first place) he should replaced with Rickon, or more likely Sansa or Arya.

And Yeah, the Riverlords won´t declare for Jon. Their need for eachother is over and Jon is a walking proof of what little House Tully got from their Stark marriage, considering that he might rule instead of say Sansa. Either you are a grandchild of lord Hoster or you are out. Not that the Tullys is a power anymore, nor is likely to be again. The North had their chance to add the Riverlands to their power and they blew it.

[Lord Varys]

39 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

No reason to think so, and no reason to think that Daeron wouldn't have set aside his crown on his own accord. But I understand your need to slander Aegon II.

Well, Aegon II would have demanded it, and he would have used force if necessary. But whoever crowned Daeron wouldn't necessarily have wanted the cripple back nor allowed Daeron to abdicate. Thus it would have come down to violence. Unwin Peake most certainly would have forced Daeron to murder his own brother if that had enabled him to control the crown.

And Aemond made it clear to everyone that his brother sucked as king. Had Aemond retaken KL from Rhaenyra he would have taken the throne and the crown and ensured that Aegon II remained dead.

26 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Hmm, I actually do think that the Vales army will go north. It makes for a better convoluted plot. And Littlefinger have the cash and the supplies.

It might do in the show. But the books have Aegon now as a player in the books as well as a real Westeros-like winter. The Valemen wouldn't get alive from the coast to Winterfell in the Northern climate, that much is clear. Or if they did they would never be able to fight in a battle in the middle of the Northern weather. Nor would anyone - not even Sansa - want to do such a mad thing in the winter. Unless they suddenly believe in the Others in the Vale there is no reason whatsoever why they should go North.

I'm pretty sure the news about Aegon will be a huge game changer in the Vale, causing some sort of reaction from Littlefinger and Sansa. They are not exactly in a hurry to go North in Alayne 1. In the last months of autumn such a campaign might have had some chance of success but in winter it would be suicide. Especially considering that there is no need. Regardless who dies throughout the cold season, the Boltons or Stannis will be weak and the Vale will be strong in the next spring, so no reason to rush things.

Tywin had exactly the same plan for Tyrion's conquest of the North at Sansa's side. Let Roose and Stannis fight it out and winter weaken the victor so that Tyrion-Sansa can then begin their glorious reign in the spring. If Littlefinger and Sansa tried to do something else they would be morons. Utter morons.

26 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

I agree with you though, that Jons way to power seems unlikely, yet R+L=J must have some meaning, some impact on the books. A marriage is indeed the best way to solve it, but it requires on instant love or some kind of Daenerys need of Jon (And maybe Jon won´t like Daenerys either). I hope GRRM has worked out something not too cheesy.

It certainly will have an impact in the whole prophecy/savior department. But I don't see how it could have political repercussions aside from jokes how Jon Snow is the rightful king and should try to take the Iron Throne in spring if they all survive. I mean, that is all that could possibly happen there.

Making such a revelation more or less irrelevant because the time for the game of thrones is over would be an interesting subversion of the big twist/revelation thing.

26 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

I have been speculating for a while about a more "evil" Jon returning from the dead, but that didn´t match at all to what happened in the show (and I believe what happens there has some relevance). I assume Robbs will gives him power, but the same time they find out that he is a Targ and not Ned Starks son (aka the reason he was in that will in the first place) he should replaced with Rickon, or more likely Sansa or Arya.

We should not discuss this here but the show's take on this has no significance to the book discussion in my opinion. They completely botched this and aside from there being an resurrection of some sort we most certainly will get a completely different scenario - especially insofar as prices for the return of the dead and psychological and physical effects of such a thing are concerned.

26 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

And Yeah, the Riverlords won´t declare for Jon. Their need for eachother is over and Jon is a walking proof of what little House Tully got from their Stark marriage, considering that he might rule instead of say Sansa. Either you are a grandchild of lord Hoster or you are out. Not that the Tullys is a power anymore, nor is likely to be again. The North had their chance to add the Riverlands to their power and they blew it.

Depending what happens to Edmure in the Prologue the Tullys might actually be on the rise now. The man might have been hardened by his experiences and he all the Riverlords should now be willing to play dirty at his side. Not to mention that Catelyn is still there and in charge of the revenge gang.

But the Riverlands should not be powerful enough (or interested) to involve themselves in war outside their own borders.They might be happy to ally with Aegon and any other anti-Lannister/Frey faction but they are in no position to send any troops fighting in a war elsewhere. And the same goes for the Northmen. They won't march south again to die some more.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't expect him to become king but if he does it will only work in a union with Daenerys or as her if their union is cut short because she dies in the battle and he survives. But then it will be as her acknowledged heir.

Not necessarily. It's looking a lot like Jon's arc is about him earning the throne because he defended the realm, not because of his parentage, which is the subversion of the usual 'hidden prince' trope. After all, what makes him different from the rest of the power-hungry claimants for the throne then?

Most of his arc has involved people turning to him as their leader rather than he staking a claim, like the wildlings, the NW and now even the North, in ADWD. I see it going forward in a similar way during and after the War for the Dawn.

And I don't see why we should assume Dany and Jon are going to end up together. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, considering that this Jon-Dany thing clearly lies at the heart of the story as he has written it up until now I'm pretty sure he knows in theory how to resolve it. I mean, we all know how it will go. The Targaryens marry their own and Jon and Dany are nephew and aunt.

If George wanted Jon Snow as the hidden prince he would have been more a Simon-like character from Tad Williams' Osten Ard series. He would have been at the heart of the entire story, not at the vicinity solely connected to the ice demons plot. We would see the bastard making connections with the important people, falling in love with the right girls, and in general impressing everybody he meets on the road. Then the revelation of his heritage could also open the way to the throne for him because everybody would like him anyway.

But this series is giving us nothing of this sort. Unless Dany/Tyrion or Aegon accept Jon Snow as one of their own and adopt him into the Targaryen family he does not stand a chance in the game of thrones. Even if the bastard saved the Realm singlehandedly from the Others (an unlikely scenario) Martin's lords would just thank him and grant him some men to rebuild the Wall (or even have his head in the end for letting the wildlings in if that ends up being a (minor) problem). Royal birth matters in this society and what the entire North thinks of Jon Snow's parentage is not likely to help him down in the South. The man even follows the wrong gods to sit the Iron Throne.

FNR imagines everything is going to fall into Jon's lap because the North, the Vale (through Sansa, who has nothing better to do than make Jon king), and the Riverlords (for reasons I don't understand) will all declare for him (both as Stark king as well as Targaryen king).

Especially the latter is very unlikely in light of the Riverlords own troubles as well as the Tully feelings for Ned Stark's bastards. Down there nobody is going to buy shit about some resurrected dude now free from his Night's Watch vows (if that's what's going to happen) nor will any of the Riverlords see it as a good idea to continue that stupid secessionist thing. They want their revenge, and once Catelyn has dealt with the Freys she might plan to target the Lannisters. That is not going to work without making alliances in the South.

But even the Vale idea is problematic. Littlefinger's Winterfell idea seems to be a thing for next spring. Going North in the middle of winter is a stupid idea and will thus simply not happen. But with Aegon (and eventually Dany) arriving in the South the Vale might eventually be forced to choose a side. Especially since Sansa of all people has every interest to remove Cersei and put an end to the Lannister dynasty so she can finally show her face again. She is still suspected to be an accomplice in regicide. And while Tommen and Myrcella live and the Baratheon dynasty is in charge nobody will forget this.

I don't expect him to become king but if he does it will only work in a union with Daenerys or as her if their union is cut short because she dies in the battle and he survives. But then it will be as her acknowledged heir.

Lots to address, but I'm on my phone, and my fingers are clumsy, so will stick with addressing the glaring misrepresentation of my Riverlands argument.

The Riverlanders have no need of swearing to Jon. They merely swear to the Lord of Riverrun. Which,once Edmure dies, rightfully is Bran, and after him Rickon. Then they follow that lord, who will naturally be Jon's ally.

As for Sansa, imagine her as the Lady Dustin of the Vale. Only with her (sadly) dead lord's newborn giving her way more legitimacy than Lady Dustin actually has in Barrowton. Steering the Vale forces where she sees fit.

Else what's ths point of all the effort to place her in the Vale, teach her politics and giving her this clearly developmental character arc to eventual power.

[Jaak]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, Aegon II would have demanded it, and he would have used force if necessary. But whoever crowned Daeron wouldn't necessarily have wanted the cripple back nor allowed Daeron to abdicate. Thus it would have come down to violence. Unwin Peake most certainly would have forced Daeron to murder his own brother if that had enabled him to control the crown.

And Aemond made it clear to everyone that his brother sucked as king. Had Aemond retaken KL from Rhaenyra he would have taken the throne and the crown and ensured that Aegon II remained dead.

Aemond might. Daeron the Daring, though.... King Daeron might well have fed Unwin to Tessarion and returned his own crown to the now dragonless cripple.

Viserys was chosen by Grand Council as a dragonless king, and ruled as a dragonless king over dragonriders Laenor, Rhaenys, Laena, Daemon....

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Not necessarily. It's looking a lot like Jon's arc is about him earning the throne because he defended the realm, not because of his parentage, which is the subversion of the usual 'hidden prince' trope. After all, what makes him different from the rest of the power-hungry claimants for the throne then?

Right now he doesn't know he has a legal claim to anything, right? Thus he cannot pursue that claim. But you can be sure as hell that Jon would have been as power hungry as the rest had he known from the beginning that he was Rhaegar's son.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Most of his arc has involved people turning to him as their leader rather than he staking a claim, like the wildlings, the NW and now even the North, in ADWD. I see it going forward in a similar way during and after the War for the Dawn.

I don't see that happening, actually. Westeros is far to big for anybody down South gravitating to Jon Snow in the middle of the winter. And he not likely to come down south to ask for help while the Wall still stands. And if it falls - well, then he won't be of much help, either, but would be rather seen as the man who could not protect the realms of men.

I also don't see the North in general looking for Jon Snow for leadership. Alys Karstark and some clansmen aren't 'the North'. Of the good side the Umbers, Manderlys, Glovers, Mormonts don't care about him, and the Boltons, Dustins, Ryswells don't either. That could perhaps change but a guy winning the allegiance of the entire (greatly weakened) North is not going to be popular with anybody down south.

The expectation that Jon is going to be the leader during the War for the Dawn is not very likely in light of the fact that there are too many characters in this cast as well as the fact that the land (and story) is so vast. Not to mention that the prophecy seems to include three dragon heads, which most likely refers to either a savior in three persons (one dragon with three heads, so to speak) or three great heroes. If they form some sort of trinity then Jon Snow might be one of them but just one of them.

His biggest problem always was that he lacked the men to actually defend the Realm. Whoever gives him those men (or helps him recruit them) will call the shot. And that's where Dany and Tyrion will enter the game. Bran and Sam will come in where knowledge is concerned.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

And I don't see why we should assume Dany and Jon are going to end up together. 

Well, if you have two monarchs who might intend to 'return' then it would be a very big coincidence if one was male and the other female for no good reason.

The general setting of the story is awfully close to the Osten Ard story and there you also had the hidden prince and the open princess who in the end united their claims.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lots to address, but I'm on my phone, and my fingers are clumsy, so will stick with addressing the glaring misrepresentation of my Riverlands argument.

The Riverlanders have no need of swearing to Jon. They merely swear to the Lord of Riverrun. Which,once Edmure dies, rightfully is Bran, and after him Rickon. Then they follow that lord, who will naturally be Jon's ally.

Well, you are making the odd assumption that Edmure will conveniently die. Why should that happen?

Even if it did the Riverlords would most likely not turn to some crippled boy who is believed to be dead but either proclaim some distant Tully cousin from amidst their own ranks as the new Lord Paramount of the Riverlands (or just chose one of their own peers, there are certainly enough former royal lines among them) or they would declare for Lord Robert Arryn, a boy already a great lord in his own right and also descended from Lord Hoster Tully. Granted, that would only work if Robert still lived at that point.

The idea that anybody in the Riverlands would believe the weird story that either Bran or Rickon Stark are still alive is not very likely.

In addition you have to keep in mind that Catelyn Tully is still alive (or rather alive again). If a resurrected Jon Snow can claim stuff then Catelyn can claim her castle and the lands of her father, too, should Edmure indeed die. In addition, Catelyn also knows that both Sansa and Arya are still alive so they would be considered the next in line, not Bran or Rickon.

And then there is Edmure's unborn child by Roslin Frey. It is the legal heir of Riverrun in any case and should technically come even before Catelyn, directly after Edmure. Regardless whether it is a boy or a girl.

And you also have to consider Littlefinger in all this. He can either claim the Riverlands by his own right as the Lord of Harrenhal and new Lord Paramount or he could lay claim to them as guardian of Lord Robert Arryn or Sansa Stark (once he reveals that he has her).

The idea that any of these people will be able to show Jon Snow much sympathy or care about his troubles is not very likely. The children might, but they would be in no position to do much about that because the Riverlands simply have their own problems.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Sansa, imagine her as the Lady Dustin of the Vale. Only with her (sadly) dead lord's newborn giving her way more legitimacy than Lady Dustin actually has in Barrowton. Steering the Vale forces where she sees fit.

Else what's ths point of all the effort to place her in the Vale, teach her politics and giving her this clearly developmental character arc to eventual power.

I'm not saying Sansa won't influence the decisions of the Lords of the Vale. I just don't see her doing something as stupid as marching north in the middle of winter. That would put her in the vicinity of the Realm unable to use her swords where it truly counts if you play the political game - to decide who sits on the Iron Throne. The weaker the other regions become the more you can accomplish with fresh soldiers from the Vale. Sansa and Littlefinger could very well aim at the Iron Throne itself, one way or another. That will be much more tempting than to restore Sansa to her bleak castle in the North.

If she truly wants Winterfell she can take it in the next spring. The idea that the Vale lords are, well, besotted with loyalty to such an amount that they would sent their men on a campaign in the North in the middle of winter is very difficult to believe. What would be the point of that?

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Jaak said:

Aemond might. Daeron the Daring, though.... King Daeron might well have fed Unwin to Tessarion and returned his own crown to the now dragonless cripple.

Viserys was chosen by Grand Council as a dragonless king, and ruled as a dragonless king over dragonriders Laenor, Rhaenys, Laena, Daemon....

Tessarion died, too. Even if he lived, he was a small dragon just as Daeron was a small man. He could not take charge of the Hightower army after the death of Lord Ormund and his cousin, and the Caltrops were calling the shots behind the scenes, not Daeron. If Daeron had been proclaimed king after the murder of the Two Betrayers (lets assume Daeron himself survived Second Tumbleton) then he would have still been the puppet of Peake and his accomplices, and who knows? Perhaps they would have pressed on north then, marching to KL, finding the gates open, the city in chaos, and it quite easy to install King Daeron I on the Iron Throne.

Then it would have been all but impossible to turn back.

Dragons don't really matter so much there. Personalities and ambition do. If Peake had betrothed his daughter - the one he later wanted to marry to Aegon III - to Daeron he would not allowed the man to abdicate thereafter. And if Aegon II was willing to execute one sister there is no reason to assume he would show mercy to any other sibling daring to challenge his claim to the throne.

You have to keep in mind that crowning somebody in the midst of a war when you don't have good information of any other members of the royal family is a statement in itself. If you do that you tell the message that you don't care whether the other king/claimants are still alive or not. You want this guy to be king.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But you can be sure as hell that Jon would have been as power hungry as the rest had he known from the beginning that he was Rhaegar's son.

Not at all. I don't think it's in Jon's character in the first place to really care about the throne and his claim to it. Even if his parentage is revealed to him in the books, his first reaction is not going to be about staking a claim to the throne, it's going to be far more of a personal conflict of identity, I guess. If anything, it will make him respect Ned's sacrifice for him even more. It's completely out of character for Jon to lust for throne/power just for the sake of it - and least of all because he suddenly found out he has a blood claim.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

don't see that happening, actually. Westeros is far to big for anybody down South gravitating to Jon Snow in the middle of the winter. And he not likely to come down south to ask for help while the Wall still stands. And if it falls - well, then he won't be of much help, either, but would be rather seen as the man who could not protect the realms of men.

I also don't see the North in general looking for Jon Snow for leadership. Alys Karstark and some clansmen aren't 'the North'. Of the good side the Umbers, Manderlys, Glovers, Mormonts don't care about him, and the Boltons, Dustins, Ryswells don't either. That could perhaps change but a guy winning the allegiance of the entire (greatly weakened) North is not going to be popular with anybody down south.

The North is indeed looking to Jon Snow for leadership, as of ADWD.  You seem to have forgotten the matter of Robb's will stating that Jon should be his successor, which is currently with Howland Reed, Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover in the Neck. Umber is sure to follow the orders of Robb, as well. Manderly knows about the existence of Rickon but nothing suggests that he won't back Jon as a defacto leader of the North during Winter, probably as a regent to Rickon as he is too young. Bolton is done for, Dustin and Ryswell will join the winners' side. The loyalty of the mountain clans to Ned and his blood has been stated many times in the text anyway.

South is another question. That might involve him making allies (or people loyal to him such as Sansa and Arya making allies) to rally everyone. But the fact remains that he is one of the only prominent characters who has actively been involved from the first book in defending the realm, as a true king should be doing, which is what will earn him the throne.

(GRRM tells us this through the character of Stannis -  I put the cart before the horse. I was trying to win the throne to save the realm, when I should have been saving the realm to win the throne." )

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The expectation that Jon is going to be the leader during the War for the Dawn is not very likely in light of the fact that there are too many characters in this cast as well as the fact that the land (and story) is so vast. Not to mention that the prophecy seems to include three dragon heads, which most likely refers to either a savior in three persons (one dragon with three heads, so to speak) or three great heroes. If they form some sort of trinity then Jon Snow might be one of them but just one of them.

In that I agree. There is no need to assume that there are only three heroes in this saga, either. GRRM does not like making his prophecies come true in an obvious way.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Not at all. I don't think it's in Jon's character in the first place to really care about the throne and his claim to it. Even if his parentage is revealed to him in the books, his first reaction is not going to be about staking a claim to the throne, it's going to be far more of a personal conflict of identity, I guess. If anything, it will make him respect Ned's sacrifice for him even more. It's completely out of character for Jon to lust for throne/power just for the sake of it - and least of all because he suddenly found out he has a blood claim.

The North is indeed looking to Jon Snow for leadership, as of ADWD.  You seem to have forgotten the matter of Robb's will stating that Jon should be his successor, which is currently with Howland Reed, Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover in the Neck. Umber is sure to follow the orders of Robb, as well. Manderly knows about the existence of Rickon but nothing suggests that he won't back Jon as a defacto leader of the North during Winter, probably as a regent to Rickon as he is too young. Bolton is done for, Dustin and Ryswell will join the winners' side. The loyalty of the mountain clans to Ned and his blood has been stated many times in the text anyway.

South is another question. That might involve him making allies (or people loyal to him such as Sansa and Arya making allies) to rally everyone. But the fact remains that he is one of the only prominent characters who has actively been involved from the first book in defending the realm, as a true king should be doing, which is what will earn him the throne.

(GRRM tells us this through the character of Stannis -  I put the cart before the horse. I was trying to win the throne to save the realm, when I should have been saving the realm to win the throne." )

In that I agree. There is no need to assume that there are only three heroes in this saga, either. GRRM does not like making his prophecies come true in an obvious way.

The politics of the North following Davos's mission to Skagos, the Battle of Ice, and the ides of Marsh could go in many different directions. There are way too many moving parts to pin down. What were the wrongway rangers actually up to? What game are Melisandre and Mance playing? Is Mance being tortured by Ramsay? Will Shireen burn? Will Bran return south? I think we can assume that Stannis will eventually win the Battle of Ice, after a ruse suggests that Ramsay won, but what will he do with Asha? Theon? Dagmar? Will Davos return with Rickon? Will Skagosi follow them to the mainland? Will Wyman honor his pledge to Davos? Where exactly are Lyra, Jory, and their mother Maege? Galbert? Were they truly just cooling their heels at Greywater Watch while Robett was trying to raise an army in White Harbor? Is Jon dead? How long will he stay dead? What is Tormund going to do? What is Sigorn going to do? What is happening at Eastwatch and Hardhome? Will the Wall come down? Will the Others breach or come around or over the Wall? Will Petyr attempt to claim Winterfell for Sansa? Will The George ever finish? 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

4 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Will The George ever finish? 

The million dollar question.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Not at all. I don't think it's in Jon's character in the first place to really care about the throne and his claim to it.

I was talking about a Jon who was raised knowing that he is Rhaegar's son. If you are a prince you are entitled and what to take what is yours unless something is clearly wrong with you. And nothing is wrong with bastard Jon. He wants to win glory and praise just like every other (noble-)boy playing at arms. Just recheck his memories of his friendly contests with Robb.

Not to mention that he most certainly would want to avenge his father if he knew what had happened to him.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Even if his parentage is revealed to him in the books, his first reaction is not going to be about staking a claim to the throne, it's going to be far more of a personal conflict of identity, I guess.

Sure, the way things have been set up in the books now the revelation of his parentage should be completely irrelevant to him and actually more of a distraction or blow to his identity - he sees himself very much as Eddard Stark's son. He has no reason to want to be Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Eddard Stark's sister.

But that is mainly because of the threat of the Others and him being at the Wall. If he had learned about his parents at Winterfell from Ned and Howland he might have had rather different intentions thereafter. Certainly not something like joining the NW - that he only did because he was a bastard and had no chance to make a name for himself elsewhere. If he had known he wasn't a bastard he would never have joined the NW in the first place.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

If anything, it will make him respect Ned's sacrifice for him even more. It's completely out of character for Jon to lust for throne/power just for the sake of it - and least of all because he suddenly found out he has a blood claim.

Yes. But that was never what I said. However, I don't think Jon has any reason to cherish Ned's memory once he learns the truth. Quite the opposite. The man lied to him his entire life. That should hurt, especially because Ned clearly thought he could not trust Jon with the truth nor did he (apparently) have any intention to tell him before he joined the NW.

In combination with the sudden lack of his identity as a (bastard) Stark his feelings might not actually be positive. Jon might very well understand why the hell Ned didn't tell Robert or Jon Arryn but there was no good reason not to tell Jon. At least once Jon had reached a certain age. Not to mention Catelyn. It should look to Jon as if Ned's cowardice there made his life at Winterfell much more miserable than it could have been.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

The North is indeed looking to Jon Snow for leadership, as of ADWD.  You seem to have forgotten the matter of Robb's will stating that Jon should be his successor, which is currently with Howland Reed, Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover in the Neck. Umber is sure to follow the orders of Robb, as well.

I know about that. But how do you know that those people are intending to do something about that? Howland Reed would be a very weird guy if he allowed Robb's will to legitimize and anoint Jon Snow as Robb Stark's heir when he knows that Robb Stark had no idea who Jon Snow actually was.

Howland could only allow Jon to become Robb's successor if he continued to suppress the knowledge about Jon's true ancestry. 

In addition, George himself took his time to point out that there is a reason that we did not get the actual text of Robb's last will. We don't know what it actually contains and what Robb decreed there. 

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Manderly knows about the existence of Rickon but nothing suggests that he won't back Jon as a defacto leader of the North during Winter, probably as a regent to Rickon as he is too young. Bolton is done for, Dustin and Ryswell will join the winners' side. The loyalty of the mountain clans to Ned and his blood has been stated many times in the text anyway.

We have to wait and see what happens. But I don't think Stannis is going to disappear too soon, and while he is still there he will be the de facto leader of the North, not Jon or some other Northman.