NFL 2012 Superbowl week: PREPARE FOR HARBAUGHGEDDON

[Maithanet]

No, I just don't think Griffin was under a whole lot of pressure when his coach wrote off the remainder of the season in early November. Obviously the pressure grew as the season went forward and culminated with the season finale against Dallas. But do you honestly believe he was under the microscope like Kaep? No fucking way. Not even close.

Griffin's was drafted by the Redskins after they traded 4 high draft picks to get him. His pressure was overwhelming from the start. He was fully expected to save the Redskins franchise, and he succeeded in a single year. And in order to pull that off, he had to run the table, and in the end, he suceeded, it was a monumental accomplishment.

Everyone knows that the Niners had TONS of talent on both sides of the ball, so Kaepernick had a different kind of pressure. He needed to help put his team over the top, not put his team on the map. But it's the pressure to perform at a higher level than Alex Smith. This isn't exactly Mission Impossible. Both guys did well under pressure, but to say it's not even close? Nonsense.

[Tempra]

It fundamentally changed into the offense he ran at University. It's not like it became super complicated and was completely outside his wheelhouse.

True enough, however, he spent 1.5 years learning a different offense since, presumably, he was being trained in a Gore-centric offense like everyone else. Now, Kaep had experience with the pistol and read option, but the rest of the offense had to adjust, which of course affects Kaep's effectiveness.

Not to mention that Wilson and Griffin had 10 games more of tape on them allowing for defenses to scheme better than the unknown Kaepernick.

Certainly Wilson and Griffin being fresh faces in the NFL helped them as well, right? We will see next season whether these three are similarly effective after everyone has an off-season to plan against the pistol offense and read option.

[Mexal]

True enough, however, he spent 1.5 years learning a different offense since, presumably, he was being trained in a Gore-centric offense like everyone else. Now, Kaep had experience with the pistol and read option, but the rest of the offense had to adjust, which of course affects Kaep's effectiveness.

They didn't take away the Gore centric elements. They just added to them with more pistol/read option. If you watch them play, they still do a lot of those ridiculous formations that lead to crazy different blocking schemes within their run game, just like they did with Alex Smith.

Certainly Wilson and Griffin being fresh faces in the NFL helped them as well, right? We will see next season whether these three are similarly effective after everyone has an off-season to plan against the read option offense.

Of course it did. But you were making the argument that Wilson and Griffin had more game experience therefore Kaepernick was at a disadvantage. I was turning that around.

[Jaime L]

Yeah, I think it's ridiculous to say that Kaepernick faced more pressure than RGIII. Kaepernick had to live up to the standard set by Alex Smith. RGIII had to live up to the single biggest haul of draft picks given up for a player since Herschel Walker.

And then he had to find a way to prove the Skins made the right decision while playing on a 5-11 team that's further devoid of those draft picks...while Kaepernick could rely on the 9 49er Probowlers to help carry the load. Like Alex Smith, Kaepernick was never expected to do it all himself. RGIII was.

[Jaime L]

BTW, as a sidenote of comparison, I agree with Kal that Kaepernick is the best runner of the 3. It's interesting because he's got the slowest 40 time of the three, but when you actually watch him during games he doesn't look any slower than RGIII to me. Maybe it's all the giant spider arm pumping action but he looks insanely fast out there.

[Maithanet]

BTW, as a sidenote of comparison, I agree with Kal that Kaepernick is the best runner of the 3. It's interesting because he's got the slowest 40 time of the three, but when you actually watch him during games he doesn't look any slower than RGIII to me. Maybe it's all the giant spider arm pumping action but he looks insanely fast out there.

As a runner, maybe, although I think that his pocket presence is the worst of the three. There were a few times against Atlanta that the rush was coming and he could have avoided it but didn't feel it until too late. Compare that to Wilson, who was tying Atlanta's pass rush in knots.

But again, Kaep benefits from having the best O line, so this doesn't come up as often.

[Mexal]

BTW, as a sidenote of comparison, I agree with Kal that Kaepernick is the best runner of the 3. It's interesting because he's got the slowest 40 time of the three, but when you actually watch him during games he doesn't look any slower than RGIII to me. Maybe it's all the giant spider arm pumping action but he looks insanely fast out there.

ESPN Sports Science did a show on Kaepernick and he gets up to his top speed in 4 steps. It's why he seems so fast.

[Tempra]

Jamie,

Oh please. Obviously RGIII had the pressure any first round QB faces, but was anyone going to call RGIII a bust if the Skins didn't make the playoffs? All QBs face some pressure as that is part of the position. RGIII had a great year. If he blew the final game in Dallas, would he have been run out of town or called a bust? No way. The guy had the full backing of the City.

Kaep, on the other hand, faced very unique pressure replacing Smith. And, yeah, Smith is no Peyton Manning, but he was having a damn good year before the concussion. So yeah, there was a lot of pressure on Kaep to succeed immediately, unlike Wilson or Griffin. Super Bowl or bust for Kaep. And he absolutely did not have the backing of the fan base until after crushing the Packers. How soon we forget that that Kaep was continually criticized for every mistake ("Even Smith could have made that pass!"). Damn, we have threads full of Sivin and LoB making those types of comments. Compare that to the excessive RGIII fellating that goes on here.

[Mexal]

Jamie,

Oh please. Obviously RGIII had the pressure any first round QB faces, but was anyone going to call RGIII a bust if the Skins didn't make the playoffs? All QBs face some pressure as that is part of the position. RGIII had a great year. If he blew the final game in Dallas, would he have been run out of town or called a bust? No way. The guy had the full backing of the City.

Kaep, on the other hand, faced very unique pressure replacing Smith. And, yeah, Smith is no Peyton Manning, but he was having a damn good year before the concussion. So yeah, there was a lot of pressure on Kaep to succeed immediately, unlike Wilson or Griffin. Super Bowl or bust for Kaep. And he absolutely did not have the backing of the fan base until after crushing the Packers. How soon we forget that that Kaep was continually criticized for every mistake ("Even Smith could have made that pass!"). Damn, we have threads full of Sivin and LoB making those types of comments. Compare that to the excessive RGIII fellating that goes on here.

The pressure was on Jim Harbaugh, not Kaepernick. He is the one who made the decision to change QBs, not Kaepernick. CK obviously had to play well, but there was no Super Bowl or bust pressure on him; that ridiculous media made pressure was entirely on Harbaugh.

[Kalbear]

Wilson and Griffin had a full season training as the starting QB. Kaep didn't get that until week 11, at which point the niners' offense fundamentally changed. Having the extra year on the team is somewhat of a benefit but far less than you make it out to be.

Okay. I'll point to folks like Aaron Rodgers as a counterexample. having two years in a system to learn things and be part of the system is significant. At the very least it's a pretty big wash - especially compared to Wilson, who did not have a full system.

As to accuracy, I'll let the numbers speak to that. Wilson was almost a 65% passer with a 3-1 TD int ratio and a 19.7% DVOA. Griffin was a 66.5% passer with a 4:1 TD/int ratio and a 16.7% DVOA. Kaep was 62.7% with a 3:1 TD-int ratio and a 25.7% DVOA. In terms of his value to his team Kaep was higher over those games - I'll grant you that. But accuracy? Nope, sorry. Deep passes? Nope.

[Tempra]

The pressure was on Jim Harbaugh, not Kaepernick. He is the one who made the decision to change QBs, not Kaepernick. CK obviously had to play well, but there was no Super Bowl or bust pressure on him; that ridiculous media made pressure was entirely on Harbaugh.

Oh come on, that's laughable. Harbaugh may have faced the the majority of criticism as head coach, but it was Kaep on the field having every play super scrutinized. I don't see how you could separate the two except to say that maybe people would have pitied Kaep for being placed in an impossible situation. I don't think most people would have been so kind, though.

[Kalbear]

So yeah, there was a lot of pressure on Kaep to succeed immediately, unlike Wilson or Griffin.

Again, what?

Wilson was being started over the guy they paid $7million to come play for them. He had massive amounts of pressure on him from the getgo - because at every turn he had a QB that was a strong QB waiting to play, and if he faltered too much he was gone. Kaep somewhat had that, but it's not like everyone was screaming to bring back Alex Smith; for the first 6 weeks of the season the primary story in Seattle was 'how badly did Wilson screw us'. Remember, he didn't get really good and get the training wheels off until week 9 or so.

As to RG3, they traded what, 5 picks to get him? Yes, he wasn't having to fight any backup for the spot - but he was also a huge star right away and had a ton of the limelight. All the while people questioning him as to whether or not a running QB could start in the league or last or what his accuracy was. Hell, without RG3 paving the way chances are Wilson and Kaep are a blip. His success let them succeed too. The read option happened because they copied RG3 and the Redskins.

[Maithanet]

Kaep, on the other hand, faced very unique pressure replacing Smith. And, yeah, Smith is no Peyton Manning, but he was having a damn good year before the concussion. So yeah, there was a lot of pressure on Kaep to succeed immediately, unlike Wilson or Griffin. Super Bowl or bust for Kaep. And he absolutely did not have the backing of the fan base until after crushing the Packers. How soon we forget that that Kaep was continually criticized for every mistake ("Even Smith could have made that pass!"). Damn, we have threads full of Sivin and LoB making those types of comments.

Did not have the backing of the Niners?! Are you kidding? You think most of San Francisco just slept through that Patriots game? Sure there were some Kaep supporters and some Smith backers right when the decision came down, but that's going to happen anytime you change quarterbacks. And I agree with Mex 100% that the pressure was more on Harbaugh to show that he'd made the right call than on Kaepernick to be awesome right away. All Kaepernick needed to do was show that he as improving and more or less as good as Alex Smith, and the fans will give him a pass. That is what he was able to do during the regular season, make a few plays that Smith wouldn't, and not so many mistakes that people panic. And then in the playoffs he has looked more comfortable.

Compare that to the excessive RGIII fellating that goes on here.

RG3 gets lots of love on the board because there are lots of Redskins fans on the board. And because he is awesome, and the numbers back that up.

[Kalbear]

Yeah, that's the thing - it's not like there were a whole lot of Alex Smith fans. They saw his limitations and knew what he was. No one was excited about him. The risk for going to Kaep was that while Kaep was more dynamic he might make more mistakes - and the 49ers could live with a game manager that didn't make a lot of plays but didn't make mistakes, at least for a while. Unfortunately that kind of player has a fairly low ceiling. Kaep has a higher one.

But it's not like people were all 'wow, you got rid of Peyton Manning' or whatever. This was Alex Smith. A guy who got benched for Troy Smith.

[Mexal]

Oh come on, that's laughable. Harbaugh may have faced the the majority of criticism as head coach, but it was Kaep on the field having every play super scrutinized. I don't see how you could separate the two except to say that maybe people would have pitied Kaep for being placed in an impossible situation. I don't think most people would have been so kind, though.

Not as laughable as this argument. Seriously, you're missing the point of the whole situation. If Kaepernick came in and failed miserably, then yea, there would have been a backlash on him. But if he handed the ball off, completed a few passes and let his All Pro defense keep the game close for him like they did Smith, no one would say a thing. They weren't analyzing every single throw or play Kaepernick had, they were seeing if he could match Smith's production in order to criticize Harbaugh. Even if he managed to be inconsistent with some very definitive flashes (which was expected), the defense and running game were good enough to keep them in games. No one would have complained about that because honestly, no one expected CK to play as well as he did. This incredible phantom pressure you keep putting on Kaepernick really wasn't there, not due to the decision anyway. He did have pressure in the playoffs like every other rookie or 2nd year QB.

[Tempra]

Not as laughable as this argument. Seriously, you're missing the point of the whole situation. If Kaepernick came in and failed miserably, then yea, there would have been a backlash on him. But if he handed the ball off, completed a few passes and let his All Pro defense keep the game close for him like they did Smith, no one would say a thing. They weren't analyzing every single throw or play Kaepernick had, they were seeing if he could match Smith's production in order to criticize Harbaugh, not Kaepernick. Even if he managed to be inconsistent with some very definitive flashes (which was expected), then they could still consider the season successful with CK being part of the future. No one would have complained about that because honestly, no one expected him to play as well as he did. This incredible phantom pressure you keep putting on Kaepernick really wasn't there, not due to the decision anyway. He did have pressure in the playoffs like every other rookie or 2nd year QB.

Why the fuck would they replace Smith with Kaep to have him (CK) do the same exact thing? That is stupid. Harbaugh saw something in Kaep (thanks, Luck!) and Kaep had to validate the change,

[Mexal]

Why the fuck would they replace Smith with Kaep to have him (CK) do the same exact thing? That is stupid. Harbaugh saw something in Kaep (thanks, Luck!) and Kaep had to validate the change,

You're missing the point. They obviously thought Kaepernick could offer more. The point is, if he didn't manage to offer more but still got them wins by doing what Smith did, there wouldn't be any backlash. He didn't have to do more; he just did because he was more talented. There was no pressure for him to produce like he ended up producing. The pressure was to win, but that pressure fell more on Harbaugh than Kaepernick.

If you can't get it by now, then you never will.

[Tempra]

You're missing the point. They obviously thought Kaepernick could offer more. The point is, if he didn't manage to offer more but still got them wins by doing what Smith did, there wouldn't be any backlash. He didn't have to do more; he just did because he was more talented. The point, which you continue to miss, is there wasn't a whole lot of pressure on Kaepernick to do much more than what Smith was capable of.

Yeah, a player with no experience had to match a veteran who in the prior yead led the team to within two fumbled punts of the Super Bowl. No pressure.

Anyways, done with the pressure argument. We aren't changing each other's minds and this just got ridiculous.

[DanteGabriel]

The lengths to which you are going to lengthen the shadow of Alex Smith are indeed pretty ridiculous. Kaepernick is playing with house money.

[Mexal]

The lengths to which you are going to lengthen the shadow of Alex Smith are indeed pretty ridiculous. Kaepernick is playing with house money.

Seriously. He's making it out to be like Smith's production was similar to Manning's. He doesn't realize that the 49ers have 9 legit pro bowlers and like 7 All Pros. Neither Smith nor Kaepernick had to do all that much to continue winning.