So did Stannis basicly win the war of five kings

[The Fourth Head]

I think it's worth considering what Stannis has actually "won"- namely, the Nightfort, a seat which rules over no peoples, and holds no stores of food. He currently has the superficial support of half a region, who would prefer to rally around a Stark than him, and finds himself buried in the snow incapable of mounting even a suicidal assault.

The war of 5 kings was won by the Lannisters, and the victory was inherited by Tommen.

As for Stannis' millitary prowess, I see him as competent, reliable, disciplined, fairly clever, but not the sharpest tool in the box, and dependent to a certain extent on the assets he has around him- much like anyone else. He doesn't have an intelligent, nuanced, trusted northern advisor with him (Jon) he doesn't have Melisandre's magic with him, and nothing I have seen suggests to me that he is capable of pulling some ingenious masterstroke out of his proverbial, or make his men perform 10 times better than they aught.

He wanted to attack the Dreadfort- which was disengenious. He wanted to attack Winterfell, which doing so without a masterplan as to what to do if the Boltons beat him there- has looked disengenious.

He won against the Ironborn, but didn't he do the same role there as Victarion in their victory? Where was the brilliant masterstroke? All seems basic millitary stuff to me. HJe maintained discipline at Storms end, but where was the masterstroke there? He won the battle beneath the wall through surprise, fair play, but again, a pincer moment is basic millitary stuff.

My view is, Ramsey and Roose are more intelligent, and more guileful and don't need talented advisors or priestesses to tell them how to win. the RW was brilliant. Roose was the chief architect for that according to that hanged Frey at the end of ASOS. In terms of ruthless, bloodless efficiency, it was a masterstroke as he preserved his forces whilst annihilating his opposition. Victories in Harrenhal and Moat Cailin were again, brilliant, in each case using deception and treachery to win a crushingly comprehensive, almost bloodless victory. The only time Roose has lost a battle has been when he has been trying. When he has won victories, it hasn;t been by laying siege or trying to overpower, it has been through intellgent efficiency.

Finally, I would compare Ramsey's victory over the Northmen as more emphatic than than Stannis' vs the Wildlings because, although both contained the element of surprise, Ramsey was fighting disciplined northern soldiers, with armour, swords, horses etc, not sharpened sticks, bone-skirts, and rioting mammoths. Theon observed that Ramsey led his men better than Ser Rodrik Cassel, so in terms of outright open battle, I think the Boltons are a great match, whereas, as I have observed before, they have more guile, and Stannis has limited assets.

The only way the Boltons will lose here is through their treachery coming back to bite them- and that is unlikely to involve Stannis, and will probably be second guessed and planned for in any case- after all, men are Roose's playthings.

[E-Ro]

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

Ever heard of alexander nevsky and the battle of ice?Yes, well this is pretty obvious, but allow me to spell it out. In dance there is alot of foreshadowing for this.1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

[KingofSothoryos]

Most wars don't have winners, just losers and worst losers.

1. Joffrey - dead, Lannisters are basically defeated and usurped by Tyrells, who may have engineered their downfall. Tommen is now a Tyrell figurehead.

2. Robb - dead, Starks are basically defeated by a combination of Lannister, Bolton and Greyjoy treachery. I leave out the Freys because Robb betrayed them first, so they had reason to betray him.

3. Renly's - dead, forces usurped by Tyrells. Stannis only held Renly's forces until the BoBW, but after that most that lived went over to Lannisters, who are now run by Tyrells.

4. Balon - dead, but the Crow's Eye keeps it Kraken. Truthfully, the Ironmen may have lost the least in the Wo5K. They've pillaged and looted as they pleased. There only loses have come when they stayed too long instead of reaving and heading back to the sea. Theon at Winterfell, Asha at Deepwood Motte and the fools at Moat Cailin all would be enjoying the reaving life now if they would have followed the Old Ways. The Cleftjaw still holds Torren Square and they are winning in the Reach for the time being. Their position is tenuous, but they have lost the least.

5. Stannis - alive? with 3000 starving men fighting in the snow, surrounded by Northmen with dubious loyalty. Truthfully, the only reason Stannis is alive is because he hasn't been betrayed by one of his bannermen or kin. Joff killed by Tyrells and LF, Robb by Freys & Boltons, Renly and Balon by their brothers. Maybe instead of Wo5K, it should be called the War of the Bannermen vs. their 5 Kings!

But to answer the OP, I think the Ironborn are winning, but with Aegon and those sneaky Tyrells, Northmen and LF, a crown may indeed kill.

[The Fourth Head]

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

Ever heard of alexander nevsky and the battle of ice?Yes, well this is pretty obvious, but allow me to spell it out. In dance there is alot of foreshadowing for this.1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

yes, there is an opportunity there, though it looks way too conspicuously flagged up for me and relies on the Boltons being stupid and reckless. The Freys- maybe, but you are getting way ahead of yourself if you think the Freys killing themselves will someone ensure Stannis defeats Roose.

What about the Dustins, Ryswells, Boltons, all sitting snugly behind two enormous walls, with food at hand? Your assumption that (Ser?) Manderley will be able to trick and assassinate Roose that easily is a weak part too I think. Chances are, Roose, who doesn't trust Manderley and sent him out in the snow because he doesn't trust the Manderleys, will have thought of that already, and is unlikely to allow himself to be killed so easily.

I also don't think anyone who is frozen in that lake will be staying down. What could be a masterstroke for Stannis could backfire hideously if ice magic is involved, and a very large group of former Freys, now as wights, rose out of the lake to massacre Stannis' forces, which is why GRRM left the battle out of ADWD, IMHO. Major if, but IF Roose is involved in ice magic, Stannis could be playing right into his hands and gifting Roose yet another effortless victory. This is what makes me think that this...seemingly irrelevant fight between two weak divided armies in terms of the 7 kingdoms will actually form the starting point of the the true battle of Fire and Ice with the onset of Winter

[E-Ro]

yes, there is an opportunity there, though it looks way too conspicuously flagged up for me and relies on the Boltons being stupid and reckless. The Freys- maybe, but you are getting way ahead of yourself if you think the Freys killing themselves will someone ensure Stannis defeats Roose.

What about the Dustins, Ryswells, Boltons, all sitting snugly behind two enormous walls, with food at hand?

I also don't think anyone who is frozen in that lake will be staying down. What could be a masterstroke for Stannis could backfire hideously if ice magic is involved, and a very large group of former Freys, now as wights, rose out of the lake to massacre Stannis' forces, which is why GRRM left the battle out of ADWD, IMHO. Major if, but IF Roose is involved in ice magic, Stannis could be playing right into his hands and gifting Roose yet another effortless victory.

What? Sorry(well not really) but your posts don't make much sense. There is nothing at all to indicate Roose is using some sort of ice magic. If the Frey force sinks it's staying at the bottom of the lake. Roose has never won a single military victory so I'm not sure whet you are getting this "another effortless victory for Roose" thing from. He has lost every battle he ever commanded. Second did you not read the part of the post about the manderlys? If they let stannis in its game over. It doesn't rely on the boltons being stupid or reckless, it relies on them not having the gift of foresight. They would have no way of knowing the Frey force was defeated and no way of knowing manderly turned.

[E-Ro]

Ummm, at no point did I say manderly would be assassinating Roose. Go back and read my post. All manderly has to do is open up the gates.

Also it only looks "flagged up" to you because I practically spelled it out and put it in terms a five year old could understand(complete with links!). The fact of the matter is that pretty much all of grrm's battles are based on real life ones, and the foreshadowing of an Alexander Nevsky type move on the freys is there. Stannis comments on the matter at various times and the holes in the ice all add up. You just have to look at it and have a bit of historical knowledge.

[The Fourth Head]

No way of knowing Manderley turned? Roose smells his treachery a mile off which was precisely the reason he sent them out- Manderley boasting how unafraid he was of going out into the snow was read by Roose, and what you propose is a very obvious double cross from a house he earnestly mistrusts. What about Roose's guards? What if Roose orders they inspect the head before allowing Manderley within swords reach? If this is the only way Stannis can win, I wonder why the Boltons are still the favourites?

As for Roose using ice magic, It is speculation, true, and should be taken as an aside consideration. Yes- getting the Freys to ride onto the ice is a good idea, but it hasn;t happened yet, and assuming that men who die of cold (frozen lake) wont turn into wights seems a little disengenious considering what has been going on north of the wall, and considering winter is nigh.

As for Roose having never won a battle, that is rubbish- I just listed the RW, Harrenhal and Moat Cailin as well earned victories earned on pure merit by Ramsey or Roose with hardly a sword thrust required. That is the problem with assessing Roose- his power lies in his guile and intelligence, not in brute strength, which is why assuming Stannis willl beat Roose through treachery is so unbelieveable.

[The Fourth Head]

Ummm, at no point did I say manderly would be assassinating Roose. Go back and read my post. All manderly has to do is open up the gates.

Also it only looks "flagged up" to you because I practically spelled it out and put it in terms a five year old could understand(complete with links!). The fact of the matter is that pretty much all of grrm's battles are based on real life ones, and the foreshadowing of an Alexander Nevsky type move on the freys is there. Stannis comments on the matter at various times and the holes in the ice all add up. You just have to look at it and have a bit of historical knowledge.

don't flatter yourself- the chapter itself spelled it out to the reader, I didn't need you or a reference to history to twig what Stannis was planning. How often do we see tricks made so clear by GRRM, only for them to...happen exactly as planned? I don't think it would make for compelling reading tbh. I would have thought us to be allowed to assume Stannis was doomed, only for him to pull off this off-page preplanned trick mid battle would be a better writing method.

[The Fourth Head]

After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple.

Not really, Firstly, no-one enters or leaves the Castle without Roose's say so. There will be no duping the guards here. Roose will see that no Freys survived and immediately become suspicious. Even if a head is waved about, Roose will want to inspect the head, with guards, etc. This is Roose- he is cautions, and he doesn't trust the Manderleys.

Even if they did force an opening and kept the gates open (not high percentages here) to storm a castle you need superior numbers. With Boltons, Ryswells, Dustins firing down from the walls the towers, the keeps etc, the courtyard would be a massacre

[James Arryn]

"Another such victory, and we are ruined."

[Lord Ronin]

If he wasnt freezing his ass off in the north, and was instead sitting on the iron throne in Kings Landing, then....yeah

[EstEst]

<snip>

He won against the Ironborn, but didn't he do the same role there as Victarion in their victory? Where was the brilliant masterstroke? All seems basic millitary stuff to me. HJe maintained discipline at Storms end, but where was the masterstroke there? He won the battle beneath the wall through surprise, fair play, but again, a pincer moment is basic millitary stuff.

Not being a military genius myself, I'm impressed very much by Stannis' victory at the Fair Isle. Seven hells, even Victarion was impressed by it, and remembers the bitter taste of it after 15 years! Here's a quote from ADwD, Victarion I:

"The memory of Fair Isle still rankled in the iron captain's memory. Stannis Baratheon had descended on the Iron Fleet from both north and south whilst they were trapped in the channel between the island and the mainland, dealing Victarion his most crushing defeat."

As I understand it, Victarion was randomly raiding the West coast at the time, he not just happened to sail right into the royal fleet, but was specially trapped. And it was Stannis who got him in a trap, and that was his brilliant masterstroke, IMO. If it were just a "basic military stuff" in Westeros, Victarion with his experience would have known that, what do you think?

Not going to argue with you on the matter of Stannis being in the middle of serious trouble, just wanted to point you on this obvious underestimation of his military skills.

[devilrob6]

The war of the five kings seems to me as a (not entirely correct) name to combine the several wars and rebellions that started after Robert's death. Some of these are still going on at the end of ADWD and some new ones are added (Aegon's invasion just started and at some point The Others and Dany will invade as well). I believe this war will go into Weteros history as a war that was never decided but evolved into a much bigger conflict.

We can say that team Renly (Reach/Stormlands) has gone, it has been divided and added to the existing factions, that Team Greyjoy has lost the North and changed their focus to conquering the Iron Throne, Stark loyalists in the North (and probably Tully loyalists in the riverlands too) are keeping their heads down, plotting in secret or made common cause with Stannis. Stannis is gaining support in the North and from the Iron Bank, but losing control over the Stormlands and Dragonstone and Aegon is added to the mix, who might get support from Dorne. In Kings Landing the Lannisters are losing power, while the Tyrells and The Faith are gaining.

So as much as i want Stannis to be the winner, you can't say yet that he won the war of the five kings. He's gaining power, but far removed from the Iron Throne and in a difficult position. Probably the Tyrells are the ones who have improved their position the most since the start of the war, but there is a lot of trouble ahead for them.

[thewingedwolf]

I think we all need to take a step back here and realize that the question being asked by the OP is not aimed at putting Stannis's military prowess on trial. Now those of you who have been on the forums for a while, know full well that I have been critical of Stannis in the past (and will continue to be in the future) however to deny the man's ability as a military commander is both foolish and quite frankly, wrong.

Side note: That's right Zunni and E-Ro you just read me complimenting Stannis :cool4:

Now back to the topic at hand, which is whether or not Stannis won the war of the five kings. Upon reflection, I think the answer lies between no and not yet, depending on whether you believe the war is over or not.

Objectively, we cannot say Stannis won simply because he is the last of the original five kings to be alive, here are a few reasons why:

1. The Lannisters/Tyrell alliance still holds the Iron Throne (albeit their grip and alliance is severely weakened)

2. Stannis was on the losing end of the most critical battle of the war so far (i.e. The Blackwater)

3. Stannis is, at least as far we know in the story, no closer to the Iron Throne than he was when the war started.

That is not to say that Stannis won't end up on the Iron Throne (I don't think he will, but it is certainly a possibility). Therefore I think the answer is that he has not won yet. There are certainly a myriad of factors that could lead to Stannis winning (Justin Massey returning, Manderly turning, Rickon coming back with the Skagosi, etc.) but as I have said it before, we cannot be certain that any of these things have or will happen and therefore the future is far from certain for everyone's favorite teeth grinder.

So to answer the OP's question, no I don't think Stannis has won, yet. I think so far as we can tell right now, the winners of the war were those who were not involved (i.e. Dorne and The Vale). Will he end up the winner, only time will tell, and any opinion on that is purely speculative at this point.

Finally, I would like to say that, for a rare occasion, I will side with the King's men on something and agree that the wildlings are not as rag tag as people made them to be and Stannis's win against them should not be demeaned (although the NW did take most of their best warriors out during the battle of Castle Black).

[BearIslander]

There is one mistake made by Stannis in TWoW "Theon", which I'm afraid of. Stannis says 'what victories did Ramsay ever one that I should fear him?', and I recall Winterfell where Ramsay defeated four or five times his numbers. That is, Ramsay is not without a military talent, and Stannis overlooks him right now.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Well he's outlived the initial competition I suppose :p but the war is far from over.

[Arya kiddin']

The Mannis is in a league of his own, but this war remains to be won yet. :P

[E-Ro]

As for Roose having never won a battle, that is rubbish- I just listed the RW, Harrenhal and Moat Cailin as well earned victories earned on pure merit by Ramsey or Roose with hardly a sword thrust required. That is the problem with assessing Roose- his power lies in his guile and intelligence, not in brute strength, which is why assuming Stannis willl beat Roose through treachery is so unbelieveable.

The hilarious thing here is that literally none of the events you listed were battles. Yeah, roose is good at betraying people but since Stannis and roose are enemies he cant very well betray stannis. Him pulling something like the red wedding or herenhall on Stannis wont work. It isnt rubbish, its the truth. Sorry you cant handle that. As for Roose being tricked, yeah, he can very well be tricked if manderly has Stannis' sword. furthermore its not like roose would be in any position to deny manderly and his men entrance to WF. Morale is already low, if he Starts denying entrance and turning on even more people he will lose control of the castle to his own people. He doesnt have much of a choice in opening up WF.

don't flatter yourself- the chapter itself spelled it out to the reader, I didn't need you or a reference to history to twig what Stannis was planning. How often do we see tricks made so clear by GRRM, only for them to...happen exactly as planned? I don't think it would make for compelling reading tbh. I would have thought us to be allowed to assume Stannis was doomed, only for him to pull off this off-page preplanned trick mid battle would be a better writing method.

Oh, asking me to not flatter myself is futile. Anyway, yeah and im sure you picked up on all the subtleties of this plan right away. But the vast majority of people reading these books wont have picked up on this. Your just that special brah! As well, it is ridiculous to think that grrm would change his story because some people might have guessed what is going to happen.

Not being a military genius myself, I'm impressed very much by Stannis' victory at the Fair Isle. Seven hells, even Victarion was impressed by it, and remembers the bitter taste of it after 15 years! Here's a quote from ADwD, Victarion I:

"The memory of Fair Isle still rankled in the iron captain's memory. Stannis Baratheon had descended on the Iron Fleet from both north and south whilst they were trapped in the channel between the island and the mainland, dealing Victarion his most crushing defeat."

As I understand it, Victarion was randomly raiding the West coast at the time, he not just happened to sail right into the royal fleet, but was specially trapped. And it was Stannis who got him in a trap, and that was his brilliant masterstroke, IMO. If it were just a "basic military stuff" in Westeros, Victarion with his experience would have known that, what do you think?

Not going to argue with you on the matter of Stannis being in the middle of serious trouble, just wanted to point you on this obvious underestimation of his military skills.

Yeah im not sure what medieval military texts this guy has studied but earlier in the thread he said a pincer move was basic military strategy. Which made me scratch my head in confusion. First of all the VAST majority of battles are not pitched battles but skirmishes between small forces as men forage for food. Minor ambushes and the like. Pitched battles are very rare as armies cannot be sure they will meet on equal terms. And when pitched battles DO occur on rare occasions fancy moves are almost never employed(forget hollywood) pitched battles happen as one or both armies rush at each other after exchanging arrow fire. the idea that some sort of pincer move is easy to pull off or common strategy is categorically false.

[Gurkhal]

The hilarious thing here is that literally none of the events you listed were battles. Yeah, roose is good at betraying people but since Stannis and roose are enemies he cant very well betray stannis. Him pulling something like the red wedding or herenhall on Stannis wont work. It isnt rubbish, its the truth. Sorry you cant handle that. As for Roose being tricked, yeah, he can very well be tricked if manderly has Stannis' sword. furthermore its not like roose would be in any position to deny manderly and his men entrance to WF. Morale is already low, if he Starts denying entrance and turning on even more people he will lose control of the castle to his own people. He doesnt have much of a choice in opening up WF.

Well to be honest Roose did have a pretty good plan with Stannis when he played the Karstarks as a fifth column. But now when that plan has broken down he might not have all that many cards up his sleeve.

[E-Ro]

Well to be honest Roose did have a pretty good plan with Stannis when he played the Karstarks as a fifth column. But now when that plan has broken down he might not have all that many cards up his sleeve.

Fair enough. Although him depending on the karstarks is to me, indicative of his lackluster skill. He pretty much HAS to win by treachery of some sort because he cannot think on his feet tactically.