So did Stannis basicly win the war of five kings

[aceluby]

Compare this war to any previous war and it's pretty obvious that nobody has won since the realm is still divided.

[James Arryn]

Your just that special brah!

Wow!

You just ironically called someone special for noticing something you yourself noticed.

[Draco_Dracul]

Fair enough. Although him depending on the karstarks is to me, indicative of his lackluster skill. He pretty much HAS to win by treachery of some sort because he cannot think on his feet tactically.

Treachery is a long standing strategic and tactical move. Some of it's practitioners are even venerated for their skill (see Odysseus).

[Trigger Warning]

No one won, it's on going.

Though Balon and Joffrey died the Iron Islands are still in revolt with a new king and House Baratheon of King's Landing just got a new King.

The death of a king is only relevant when their faction subsequently succumbs to another.

[E-Ro]

Wow!

You just ironically called someone special for noticing something you yourself noticed.

Maybe you missed the first part of that, werein I said "right away" Here I will quote it for you so you dont have to go back.

Oh, asking me to not flatter myself is futile. Anyway, yeah and im sure you picked up on all the subtleties of this plan right away. But the vast majority of people reading these books wont have picked up on this. Your just that special brah! As well, it is ridiculous to think that grrm would change his story because some people might have guessed what is going to happen.

the plan was not so obvious to me as it was to "the third head" who seemingly picked up on it right away.

Treachery is a long standing strategic and tactical move. Some of it's practitioners are even venerated for their skill (see Odysseus).

Yeah, and you can only betray so many people before no one trusts you and you have lost all credibility. Stannis is rooses enemy, as such there can be no treachery.

[James Arryn]

Maybe you missed the first part of that, werein I said "right away" Here I will quote it for you so you dont have to go back. the plan was not so obvious to me as it was to "the third head" who seemingly picked up on it right away.

Ah, so he'd be very special for picking up on it even quicker than you did. So special in fact that you are presuming the claim to be self-evidently dubious. Gotcha.

[E-Ro]

Ah, so he'd be very special for picking up on it even quicker than you did. So special in fact that you are presuming the claim to be self-evidently dubious. Gotcha.

Ah yes,your contributions to this conversation have been most enlightening, useless, but enlightening.

Anyway moving on from this "lol imma get one over on you!" bullshit I think the battle at the wall is similar to montisgard. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Montgisard there are a few differences(well more then a few) but I like the symmetry. King baldwin wins a huge victory by attacking in surprise with his cavalry. I picture the knights at the wall hitting the wildlings in much the same way king baldwins army hit saladin. And this battle is considered to be one of great skill in its execution.

[RoamingRonin]

I hate this bullshit of "lol hehehe the wildlings were just a bunch of silly refugees beating them doesn't count."

I'm not saying it doesn't count, I'm just saying its quite comical that the only "manor" victory Stannis won in the war had nothing to do with the war. After getting his ass handed to him on the Blackwater because of wildfire (worships fire god, gets beat with fire) he suddenly realizes he put the cart before the horse and tries to protect the realm. Only because Davos insisted and Melisandre happened to agree... even though she was his main cheerleader in his bid for the throne in the first place.

The wildlings ARE refugees and poorly armed and organized. Stannis has nothing to be proud for beating them.

[E-Ro]

I'm not saying it doesn't count, I'm just saying its quite comical that the only "manor" victory Stannis won in the war had nothing to do with the war. After getting his ass handed to him on the Blackwater because of wildfire (worships fire god, gets beat with fire) he suddenly realizes he put the cart before the horse and tries to protect the realm. Only because Davos insisted and Melisandre happened to agree... even though she was his main cheerleader in his bid for the throne in the first place.

The wildlings ARE refugees and poorly armed and organized. Stannis has nothing to be proud for beating them.

I disagree with the bolded, they are not poorly organised. In the chapter is clear just how well organised they are. They form a spear wall and mance even has his cavalry form up on him to counter Stannis' cavalry. And yes, any time you beat a numerically superior force that also has unconventional weapons it is something to be proud of. regardless of what people on internet message boards say.

[EstEst]

I'm not saying it doesn't count, I'm just saying its quite comical that the only "manor" victory Stannis won in the war had nothing to do with the war. After getting his ass handed to him on the Blackwater because of wildfire (worships fire god, gets beat with fire) he suddenly realizes he put the cart before the horse and tries to protect the realm. Only because Davos insisted and Melisandre happened to agree... even though she was his main cheerleader in his bid for the throne in the first place.

The wildlings ARE refugees and poorly armed and organized. Stannis has nothing to be proud for beating them.

I think this victory allowed him to made alliance with wildlings on Stannis' terms. I'm not sure that the pact is standing right now that Jon is not in charge, but the idea was good both from the strategical point of view, (wildlings are now to help protecting the realm), and IMO from the "humanistic" point of view. (since no other pretender would see wildlings as people worth of dealing with, in any sense but military.) I think that makes it very relevant to the current situation in the realm (though perhaps not to the war of 5K, exactly).

[James Arryn]

Ah yes,your contributions to this conversation have been most enlightening, useless, but enlightening.Anyway moving on from this "lol imma get one over on you!" bullshit I think the battle at the wall is similar to montisgard. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Montgisard there are a few differences(well more then a few) but I like the symmetry. King baldwin wins a huge victory by attacking in surprise with his cavalry. I picture the knights at the wall hitting the wildlings in much the same way king baldwins army hit saladin. And this battle is considered to be one of great skill in its execution.

Well, among other things I am trying to enlighten you on a faulty rubric. I study military history, but my own connection with Nevsky came about because of being forced to sit through Eisenstein so often I literally hate him. IOW, there is NO virtue associated with making a connection between A and B. it's just experiential happenstance. So even the irony you are implying is ironically based.

As for Baldwin, i don't see the remarkable similarities, tbh. But then my contributions are just enlightened/useless academic qualifications in military history. Montsigard wasn't an out of nowhere flnk attack by a previously unknown but technologically superior force. It was more along the lines of Marius, or strategically (not tactically) Caeser's pursuit of the Gauls when thought to be defeated. Or Blucher after Quatre Bras. But that's not to say GRRM doesn't see a connection. I personally would be more willing to credit A version of Cornwell's Winter King battle where Arthur makes the day-saving cavalry battle, but there are real differences there, too. at least it was planned, and the effect was less dramatic.

the Battle of the Wall was more a developing GRRM trope. Losing but brave military engagement saved by the unexpected, uncoordinated but perfectly timed rear action of an unforseen 3rd force. it's happened several times now. The original hammer and anvil, Blackwater, the Wall, and now in the advance chapters out east. The odds are beginning to stack up. I fear it's becoming GRRM's go-to military move, like Whyte and blackouts.

[RoamingRonin]

I disagree with the bolded, they are not poorly organised. In the chapter is clear just how well organised they are. They form a spear wall and mance even has his cavalry form up on him to counter Stannis' cavalry. And yes, any time you beat a numerically superior force that also has unconventional weapons it is something to be proud of. regardless of what people on internet message boards say.

When you put it that way, it does seem like something to be proud of but nah. Mance believes the wildlings are disorganized and he organized them. Mammoths and giants mean nothing if you can't use them effectively. The wildlings break in battle, can't follow orders and don't use the best if weapons. Even the giants ran (killing a fleeing giant, oh how proud Godry Farring is of that). Stannis saved the Wall from bloody prolonged combat and that's commendable. But it's not a victory to be proud of, regardless of what people on Internet message boards say.

[E-Ro]

Well, among other things I am trying to enlighten you on a faulty rubric. I study military history, but my own connection with Nevsky came about because of being forced to sit through Eisenstein so often I literally hate him. IOW, there is NO virtue associated with making a connection between A and B. it's just experiential happenstance. So even the irony you are implying is ironically based.

As for Baldwin, i don't see the remarkable similarities, tbh. But then my contributions are just enlightened/useless academic qualifications in military history. Montsigard wasn't an out of nowhere flnk attack by a previously unknown but technologically superior force. It was more along the lines of Marius, or strategically (not tactically) Caeser's pursuit of the Gauls when thought to be defeated. Or Blucher after Quatre Bras. But that's not to say GRRM doesn't see a connection. I personally would be more willing to credit A version of Cornwell's Winter King battle where Arthur makes the day-saving cavalry battle, but there are real differences there, too. at least it was planned, and the effect was less dramatic.

the Battle of the Wall was more a developing GRRM trope. Losing but brave military engagement saved by the unexpected, uncoordinated but perfectly timed rear action of an unforseen 3rd force. it's happened several times now. The original hammer and anvil, Blackwater, the Wall, and now in the advance chapters out east. The odds are beginning to stack up. I fear it's becoming GRRM's go-to military move, like Whyte and blackouts.

I agree( and admitted) that there are more then a few differences. But the similarities are there. The numerically smaller army launches an ambush, and thats risky but it works. And with devastating effect. The differences are that saladin new he was fighting baldwin(though it can be argued mance should have known he was at war with the entire south) and saladins men were roughly equal to baldwins technology wise, the last differences is lack of fantasy elements(mammoths and giants) As I said its not a perfect comparison, but I think it works.

As for me calling your contributions useless, that was because of these two posts

Wow!

You just ironically called someone special for noticing something you yourself noticed.

Ah, so he'd be very special for picking up on it even quicker than you did. So special in fact that you are presuming the claim to be self-evidently dubious. Gotcha.

And I think we both know what you were trying to accomplish with both of these comments.

[E-Ro]

When you put it that way, it does seem like something to be proud of but nah. Mance believes the wildlings are disorganized and he organized them. Mammoths and giants mean nothing if you can't use them effectively. The wildlings break in battle, can't follow orders and don't use the best if weapons. Even the giants ran (killing a fleeing giant, oh how proud Godry Farring is of that). Stannis saved the Wall from bloody prolonged combat and that's commendable. But it's not a victory to be proud of, regardless of what people on Internet message boards say.

Yes, mance organised them, Im glad you agree. So after mance they are an organised fighting force. And the mammoths and giants WERE used effectively, they smashed one of the columns of heavy horse. thats one column out of only three. As for breaking in battle, any force can break in a battle no matter how hardened. Almost no army fights to the death. Also we see no indication of the wildlings not following orders, they seem to do exactly as mance commands. No other man in westeros can say they beat an army that large, or that they beat an army with mammoths and giants in it. Stannis won a crushing victory with few resources, it is something to be proud of.

As for the last bit, its not just people on internet message boards saying its a victory to be proud of, its the characters in the story that commend it.

[Brienne for Queen]

By any chance (I forget the answer) did anyone think to burn Joffre's corpse? Just askin....

[Brienne for Queen]

If Cersei loses her trial and is proven guilty, Tommen and Myrcella will lost their claim to throne (because of incest). Which would make Stannis closest living relative to King Robert. Stannis is the rightful king then.

I agree with this. But what happens to Stannis when Dani shows up? He is so honourable, I think he will bend the knee for her. Even HE will have to admit she has the better claim, and better claims is all that he's about, isn't it? He didn't WANT to be king, I thought, but considered his the best claim, so decided to grin and bear it. He'd make an awesome hand for Dani, and Sir Barristan the head of her Queen's Guard. Doesn't leave much of a spot for Jon in this scenario though. Or this new so-called boy king Jon Connington's bringing in. I gotta think about this some more....

[Petyr Patter]

There is one mistake made by Stannis in TWoW "Theon", which I'm afraid of. Stannis says 'what victories did Ramsay ever one that I should fear him?', and I recall Winterfell where Ramsay defeated four or five times his numbers. That is, Ramsay is not without a military talent, and Stannis overlooks him right now.

I've thought about this to, but in the end Stannis's estimation is correct. Ramsey won that one not with trickery, tactics, or technique. He won it with treachery. And yes, I am very proud to have come up with four adjectives all starting with "t" to describe the situation.

Anyways, Ramsay arrived outside the siege with 600 men to join the other Northern commanders in besieging Winterfell, joining an existing force of less than 2,000 (all figures from the wiki entry for "Sack of Winterfell). Without declaring his intentions, Ramsay approached his allies and then attacked them before they had any chance to army or equip or realize Ramsay was breaking the Bolton alliance. On one hand, he won and was able to pull off the backstab. On the other hand, his only victory was killing his own allies. That is the equivalent of a soccer player scoring on his own goal.

Stannis will never mistake Ramsay for his ally, meaning the old winning tactical maneuvear the Boltons have managed to use is lost to them.

[James Arryn]

I agree( and admitted) that there are more then a few differences. But the similarities are there. The numerically smaller army launches an ambush, and thats risky but it works. And with devastating effect. The differences are that saladin new he was fighting baldwin(though it can be argued mance should have known he was at war with the entire south) and saladins men were roughly equal to baldwins technology wise, the last differences is lack of fantasy elements(mammoths and giants) As I said its not a perfect comparison, but I think it works.As for me calling your contributions useless, that was because of these two postsAnd I think we both know what you were trying to accomplish with both of these comments.

In all honesty, I don't see that Stannis deserves very much credit for the Wall. He has a couple of overriding qualities as a commander that come into play, mostly his men follow orders and are pretty resolute.

But the actual battle itself lacks a lot of strategic merit. By a kazillion miles the overwhelming factor is the timing of it, and that is pure chance. Stannis happened to engage exactly when the wildlings were most extended, at an exposed flank which happened to be to the West because of Mance's dispositions. After that it's mostly unit command tactics, particularly the Cromwell on the giants.

If you think this is a battle that Stannis should be especially proud of (from a commander zpOV, not the moral question of his going north itself) then you'd have to think that Tywin/Garlan seriously outclassed him by also arriving at an exposed flank at exactly the right moment, and even more so because Tywin had to reverse fields and coordinate with the Tyrells to do do. Whereas Stannis...landed in the East and headed West, along the Wall. Is there anything I am missing about his overall plan? Does he intentionally delay a day or 2 to arrive at the right moment? Or does he just get there at the right time, because...?

Neither Stannis at thebWall or Tywin an the Water is IMO a remarkable achievement. Like Tywin, Stannis demonstrates good c&c overall and has good unit commanders...Tywin more so...but neither does much but go towards the enemy and arrive at a providential moment by virtue of the writer's imagination.

Or, to put it another way, what do you see in Stannis' attack on the wildlings that betokens particular strategic or tactical skill on his part? What did he do in that situation that a normal solid but unremarkable commander wouldn't have done? Sincere question.

As far as what I was trying to achieve earlier, I was pretty clear. You seemed to be suggesting that seeing a possible thematic connection between GRRM and an historical event was an indication of being special, and doubted someone else's doing so on the basis that it was supposedly quicker than yours. I think both points are flawed in the extreme.

[Ramsay Gimp]

No way of knowing Manderley turned? Roose smells his treachery a mile off which was precisely the reason he sent them out- Manderley boasting how unafraid he was of going out into the snow was read by Roose, and what you propose is a very obvious double cross from a house he earnestly mistrusts. What about Roose's guards? What if Roose orders they inspect the head before allowing Manderley within swords reach? If this is the only way Stannis can win, I wonder why the Boltons are still the favourites?

As for Roose using ice magic, It is speculation, true, and should be taken as an aside consideration. Yes- getting the Freys to ride onto the ice is a good idea, but it hasn;t happened yet, and assuming that men who die of cold (frozen lake) wont turn into wights seems a little disengenious considering what has been going on north of the wall, and considering winter is nigh.

As for Roose having never won a battle, that is rubbish- I just listed the RW, Harrenhal and Moat Cailin as well earned victories earned on pure merit by Ramsey or Roose with hardly a sword thrust required. That is the problem with assessing Roose- his power lies in his guile and intelligence, not in brute strength, which is why assuming Stannis willl beat Roose through treachery is so unbelieveable.

:agree:

Fair enough. Although him depending on the karstarks is to me, indicative of his lackluster skill. He pretty much HAS to win by treachery of some sort because he cannot think on his feet tactically.

No, he just prefers to win that way. Different strokes for different folks - no method of victory is "better" than the other. Results are what matter. Taking Harrenhall without losing a single man is impressive if you ask me (not to detract from Stannis's accomplishments)

I think Ramsay and the Freys are toast, but it's a coin toss if Roose or Stannis comes out on top after that

[IRON BANK]

To answer the ops question. Stannis is not the winner Tommen is sitting on the IT with his kittens and his true father is trying to play HotK in the riverlands. (f)Aegon, conspiring northmen, Iron born, Dorne, WW, and Dany all stand at this moment in his way. Also most are closer to KL than he is. Stannis at this point has lost his seat, is out of money, and has a burrowed army. Mel, Stannis's moving plot device is a hundred leagues away trying to mend Jon Snows wounds. So No Stannis has not won anything YET! but who knows what the future holds.