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ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!


Mexal

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By the way, Daedalus, who are your top suspects right now?

From memory? Shadowbaby is by far the top. I think I may have implied that in my last post?

As to others, Homeless Harpy is up there. I've found her play rather opportunistic myself, and definite connections can be made to Gert. Halo is somewhere up there as well. His suggestion to do a mass-reveal really looks self-serving when we realize that the guilties also had holidays. Although perhaps that's paranoia. I've also been somewhat concerned with his play so far.

Lany is not a suspect, and I believe that Kat is innocent as well. You I do not suspect as being an FM, but I do have this inkling that you might be the SK. Regardless, I'm not interested in lynching any of you three today.

Honorable mention: KH and Crusader, for being horrifyingly low posters and failing to contribute effectively. I'm taking it easy on them because they're newbies, but I'm not willing to ignore them forever (you may consider this to be a poke. Contribute more!).

ETA: I'll be gone for about 30mins to clean myself up, then back for just over an hour before bed time. I'll be able to do nothing more than drop in tomorrow morning, but at about 9:30 GMT I'll be back for the rest of the day, minus meal breaks and other distractions.

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One evening with bad connection - it's realy bad :(

One hour from being modkilled - Nice save.

Will we get actual contributions for your fourth (Maybe fifth?) post? I'd love to see some. Right now you're right up there on my suspicion list because I really don't know anything about you, and I don't have anything to go on.

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Not really, actually. =/

As previously said... You haven't really contributed much of anything. But then, you haven't made yourself look guilty, either.

If you expect legitimate, well-thought out, reasonable cases and input from me, then that's really too bad since right now, I haven't got any. I could make up some if you'd like. It'd take a few moments, but insomnia's the name of the game tonight anyhow.

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Well then, I'm back. Is there anything else anyone would like to ask me before I go to bed? I'm going to reread the last 10 pages (on mine, "I'm on page 34 right now), and I'll answer any questions when I finish, as well as voicing any changed opinons or interesting tidbits.

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It is day 2.

14 players remain: Crusader, Daedalus, Filter, Halo, JKMan, Kat, Kilgrey, Lany, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, Whiskeyjack, a homeless harpy.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

3 votes for Daedalus (Halo, Whiskeyjack, Filter)

1 vote for Ser Spider (Kat)

10 players have not voted: Crusader, Daedalus, JKMan, Kilgrey, Lany, Piper of Chaos, Ser Spider, Shadowbaby, Thiocyanide, a homeless harpy.

34 hours to go.

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Lany is not a suspect, and I believe that Kat is innocent as well. You I do not suspect as being an FM, but I do have this inkling that you might be the SK. Regardless, I'm not interested in lynching any of you three today.

If WJ were the SK, he would realize that if he killed off all the mafia in the first few days, his chances of winning the game would be slim to none.

Maybe this is another case of him pulling the wool over my eyes, but I really don't think he's evil in this game.

Well, any more evil than his usual sinister base evility level. :devil:

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So, after my minor reread, I do have a few changes prepared:

Ser Spider made a huge leap in my suspects list. Maybe it's just the fact that a lot of what he's done has seemed either irrational or absurd to me, but I really have doubts about him.

I'm willing to put Thiocyanide in the list of players to not lynch today. I think that he's quite likely to be innocent.

Now then, I'm tired and have a (fairly) early morning to deal with tomorrow. I'll be back.

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2 Thiocyanide:

Well, I don't have much to tell about my modest person. Right now I prefer to look after your discussion making some conclusions, but without offering my opinion.

If everyone did that, there'd be no discussion to have an opinion about.

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Ok, various thoughts before I leave. I just did a fast re-read of the thread. You all sure post a lot.

What I think about Shadowbaby is that she's not on my first tier of suspects. Let me break it down for you:

Tier 1:

Ser Spider, Daedalus (I get the case against him now, having re-read all his posts), Harpy. Except I think Harpy is a potential symp to Gertrude. Go back and look at how they exchanged votes in a very friendly way on day 1.

This role speculation makes me suspect Spider more. (Yes I AM fixated. Why do you ask?)

Ok, about role speculation-since SK does seem in a worse position than the FM, perhaps they are weaker than we suspect? Like, 2+symp, no roles? But I guess that innocents would have to be weaker in that case, as well, and since we already have a CF, there couldn't be more than 2 innocent roles...Am I missing something?

I just don't like it. I could be wrong, but nothing in that quote makes me want to rule out Spider as a serial killer, either.

Tier 2:

Thiocyanide, Filter, Shadowbaby. I'm just not getting these same feelings as everyone else about Shadowbaby, and I think her behavior could potentially be explained by having a newbie friend in the game.

Tier 3:

Halo. Halo gets his own tier because I don't suspect him of being an actual killer. If anything, he could be a symp to Gertrude, but he was so unwilling to vote for her that he went past sympish and back into the innocent category for me. Except maybe he went past that just a little more and went back into symp again. I'm mostly putting him in a tier in case he turns out to be guilty; I need a little insurance so I can be smug about it in spoilers. :P

I don't really suspect anyone else, which could be a problem. I have WJ, Lany, and Piper at the very bottom of my list.

Edit: Switched tier 2 around a little and added an explanation. I should be on tomorrow in the late morning PST, but I'm going to my cousin's birthday party out of town and make not be back until late. Also, there's supposed to be heavy storms in the Bay Area tomorrow with a high probability of power outages. If I lose power when I want to post, I'll probably IM the mods with my cell phone or something.

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The Week kill is a bit surprising. His offensive playstyle gave me the feeling that he was not only a bunny that plays with eggs, but also bulletproof. I was wrong, obviously.

Week's death is still interesting, when we have a look at the voting pattern:

7 votes for Gertrude (Kat, Shadowbaby, Whiskeyjack, Thiocyanide, a homeless harpy, Lany, JKMan)

3 votes for Shadowbaby (Piper of Chaos, Daedalus, Ser Spider)

1 vote for JKMan (Halo)

1 vote for Whiskeyjack (Crusader)

4 players have not voted: Filter, Gertrude, Kilgrey, Weekapaug.

I can see why the FM wanted to get rid of Week, but there were other players who they should have targeted:

Kat, Lany and WJ

We know that WJ was the obvious heal, so no wonder that he is still alive. Now, if I were a FM, I would begin to kill those players first who are VPI and have a lesser chance of being healed - Kat and Lany. Both have been on the mob of Goblin Gert (does the SK come up guilty btw?), Kat never moved her vote away, Lany hopped on the wagon and sealed Gert's faith. The same applies to a lesser extent for Shadow, but if Shadow was partnered with Gert, Shadow's vote means nothing.

So, why did they kill Week instead of Kat or Lany? One theory is that it was the SK, but the role description of the SK says that he can kill 'any other night', which means nights 2, 4, 6 etc right? The other theory is that the FM lost their head and that we have to deal with inexperienced player(s). If the second theory is true, Week must have been more a threat to the FM than the other two. This gives Spidey a little more credit, although I like Kat's case on him.

Players that Week suspected the most in this post here:

Thio, Crusader, JKMan

One thing is irritating me: Gert made not a real effort to get her head out of the noose. That's why I think that she had already given up, knowing that it's almost impossible to win a battle against WJ. If that's the case, she also had her partners instructed to join the mob on her. In the light of this the following events are interesting:

- post 411: WJ states that people who have been defending Gert are suspcious and votes Gert

- post 413: WJ answers to Week, saying that this issue is very important

- post 416: Thio removes his vote from Crusader

- post 419: votes for Gert:

Overall, WJ, I'm going to have to agree with you about Gertrude. I'm not as sure about the associations, but she's been the most 'controversial,' I suppose, player, as far as the number of people involved in discussions around her.

Sounds fishy. This post is as general as possible, he doesn't quite follow WJ's logic, but it is enough to put the fourth vote on Gert.

- post 421: another fishy post by Thio where he tries to shift the attention away from those players that WJ had linked with Gert.

- in the meanwhile, Week is questioning Thio about his motives. Thio clears the matter in post 425. I will go into further details soon.

- post 424: Gert returns and is not a bit concerned about WJ pushing for her lynch

It's possible that Gert returned, saw what was going on and her veteran experience told her that WJ wouldn't let go off her. She instructed Thio to hop on her mob ASAP to look innocent afterwards.

Here is my reasoning to think why Thio is behaving suspicious:

Thio has difficulties to explain his vote on Gert. Week asks about it:

What makes you think she is a good lynch target for today? If not the associations, what about being controversial makes you think she is a FM or SK?

Thio's answer:

All I have to go on is the bulk of WJ's argument - I'm just saying I'm not sure if any of the players he mentioned are directly associated with Gertrude, though there's a decent possibility.

Week is irritated and asks:

What part of the argument is most convincing to you? How else would the other players that WJ mentions be associated with Gert other than directly? Are they her step-sibling FM or in-law FM partners?

Thio now posts this:

Perhaps I should have been more clear - I'm not sure which players are directly related to her.

So first he declares that he isn't sure that those players that WJ has pointed out are directly linked towards Gert, but then he decides that he wasn't sure which players are directly linked to Gert.

Conclusion:

Gert knew she was toast, decided to save the rest of her team and instructed Thio to vote for her ASAP. Thio had problems to back up his vote with some reasoning. Week went after him for that, Thio panicked.

That's why my vote is on Thiocyanide.

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