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A Horse Named Stranger

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Everything posted by A Horse Named Stranger

  1. Greece investing in their military doesn't surprise and worry me that much. They've traditionally spend quite a bit in their military. Usually it's a pissing contest with Turkey that's been going on in the background for decades. I don't see the two NATO members going at each other for realz.
  2. Simply not blundering through the campaign would have been sufficient. Post mortem, I really wish the Greens had picked Habeck. As tiresome as I find him with his long lofty speeches with little concrete content, but I have very little doubt that he would've delivered the 20%+.
  3. You say it now, but imagine you being stuck behind a monitor watching Boris Johnson 24/7. Oh, it's noon, he woke up, went out to collect the newspaper - he is conservative, so he still gets a printed copy. And oh no, there the belt of his bathrobe came off, and no he doesn't believe in underwear either. You can see everything.
  4. And now kids for your homework, you read through your entire post, and use the correct short for the Social Democratic Party of Germany. SPD and not SDP. Anecdotal autobiographical note. As a little kid I was also somewhat confused why the Social Democratic Party's short is SPD and not SDP. But it's really Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands. Yes, Germans love long words.
  5. To misquote Orwell. Big Fat Copper is watching you (every step you take, every move you make, every breath you take - yeah, the irony of that being a Police song only just dawned on me).
  6. Basically, yes. Green-SPD and CDU-FDP are the more natural fits in terms of coalitions. But both parties have shown they can form goverments when necessary. At least on a state level. Schleswig-Holstein is ruled by a Jamaica coalition. In the South West, we have the Greens ruling as senior partner with the CDU in Baden-Württemberg, and the Stop-Light coalition of SPD-Greens-FDP in Rhineland-Palatinate. Saxony in the depths of the east is right now ruled by a coalition of CDU-SPD-Greens. Saxony-Anhalt is ruled by CDU-SPD-FDP. Oh, and in Hesse we have the CDU as senior partner in Goverment with the Greens. And in Brandenburg it's SPD-CDU-Greens. Usually raison d'etat prevails, which says, we have to work with the election results we've been dealt and can't just go back to the polls over and over again, until we get the results that suits us. Two party coalitions are preferable as more stable and easier to forge (just accomadting one partner is easier than two). Four years ago, talks broke down over FDP not willing to make concessions towards the Greens during the Jamaica talks. The SPD didn't really want to form a Grand Coalition (only other politically viable option (SPD was too weak form a goverment as senior partner). There Steinmeier (President) had to intervene and remind them of their responsibility (check above with raison d'etat) and so they reluctantly ended up in another Grand Coalition they didn't want. Thus Greens and FDP started to talk with each other first, as there's the biggest gulf to bridge in terms of politics and policies. There's an overlap between those parties on other issues. Immigration, civil rights etc. On Fiscal and enviromental issues, they are on almost polar opposites. The FDP doesn't believe state intervention is required to combat the climate crisis, instead magical thinking (inventions just around the corner) and giving companies a tax break to invent/modernize their business will solve it. Green position, no, that won't do. We need to pass laws (more regulations) and actually spend money (infrastrucutre, subsidies on solar panels etc.) to make the economy greener. To spend money we have to raise taxes (way more in line with the SPD). The FDP believes more in [debunked] Reaganomics. If we lower taxes, we will generate more tax income (more in line with the CDU). I fucking loathe the rich men party (FDP). What they could agree on, is to soften some moronic CSU pushed restrictions with regards to wind energy. Which has severely hampered them. Another thing they can realistically agree on, is a proper election reform. So the parliament won't grow ever bigger.
  7. Ok, so it was Zorral's fault for not bein able to read it, and not the link. Thanks. btw. did you find it worth reading?
  8. Hum, weird, I could access it without a sub. I will spam your inbox then, with your kind permission Edit: Check your inbox sorry for format. Copy and paste isn't what it used to be.
  9. Going back to China's politics, and the Australian-UK-US submarine deal. Kevin Rudd's take on itis quite interesting. And added some more aspects I wasn't aware of. I can really recommend it.
  10. Are you implying, that he flew too high for the FDP, before coming back down to earth crashing?
  11. Did you just call the Spectator a comedy program for the gammon hipster?
  12. There are good people in the party, certainly. However, calling Oscar Fremdarbeiter Lafontaine and Sarah Lifestyle Linke Wagenknecht good people is pushing it. If there was a way to launch a rocketship into the sun with all the AfD folks, I will happily direct that couple to their seats. A friend of mine voted for that party, and he I am fairly certain, he will gladly help the two of them pack for their journey.
  13. TEA party is a bit much. A good part of the element TEA-Party movement is underlying racism and the connected Law & Order policy stance. For all their faults, and for all the contempt I feel for them, they are not that keen on a police state. The FDP is more like Paul Ryan without religious nonsense (and policies evolving from that). So that is one of the fields where CDU/CSU can actually clash with the FDP. The Conservatives want to sharpen their profile with regards to security (policy) and migration, and there's a chance that the FDP will balk (alongside the Greens), if the conservatives get too needy/greedy. Söder has hinted that he doesn't want to sell out to the FDP on those issues and would prefer opposition status to that. Personally, I don't think the FDP will fight tooth and nails over it, as they are more likely to get their fiscal and economic wishes fullfilled with the CDU than the SPD, but time will tell. On the other hand, I am inclined to believe, that the FDP is more likely to get the bloody ministry of finance in a SPD lead goverment. The Greens will probably insist on it, in a CDU lead goverment. If you don't set the agenda (chancellorship), you at least want the control over the purse. Funny to think how that office was seen as being the unpopular tax collector, while overseeing the ever growin national debt. On a related note, I find it somehow funny/remarkable how much the foreign office has lost of its appeal. It used to be the office the vice-chancellors used to boost their popularity and profile not that long ago. Last time it was so much in demand it ended up in the hands of Heiko Maas
  14. Thanks for sharing your porn preferences with us. Some might argue TMI, TMI! To which I say, there's never enough information! So tell me tell me more, did she put up a fight?
  15. General overview about German Electoral System @dog-days https://twitter.com/dwnews Is a good enough starter for an overview over current German Politics issues. It's quite decent actually. Deutsche Welle is basically a foreign language offspring of German Public Broadcasting.
  16. The Greens have a younger more leftish group of MPs this time around. That kinda makes life for Habeck and Baerbock as the most likely negotiators somewhat more difficult. There are a couple of fundamental differences wrt to social and tax policies, where the Greens are somewhat more likely to move if they get something in return. Then we have the issue of climate policies, where the FDP would need to move. I don't think the Greens can really sell out there. They'd have to get their compromise through a party convention. Habeck himself questioned, whether they would've been able to get their deal through last time around. And that was very obviously not enough for the yellow collaborateurs. Either way, once the two small parties have an agreement in place, they can offer that deal to either party. There I think the CDU is more likely to bite.
  17. But not that far. His so called competence team had the education minister from Schleswig-Holstein, who very thinly veiled asked voters in Thüringen not to vote for Maaßen. Her response to whether she would vote for him was something along the lines, that she had always been fascinated by athletes (the SPD candidate running in that district is former Biathlete Frank Ulrich).
  18. Remains to be seen. We'd have three Alpha males setting their sights on the ministry of finance. Merz , Lindner and Habeck. That's on top of the political differences between FDP and Greens. Overall I still think the Grand Coalition is way more likely.
  19. Yep,, and they just showed them being comfortably over the threshold. Spiegel also has them as potential majority. Only thing that doesn't work is RRG. I have a continuation of the Grand Coalition as most likely scenario. Jamaica is the next likely, SPD along side the Greens and FDP as the least likely.
  20. Do you see other results than I? Last thing I saw, they'd be able to continue. Barely, but a majority, is a majority, is a majority.
  21. Meanwhile in the Bundesliga, Freiburg are having fun at their farewell party for their old home. They scored their goals 996-999 there today. Let's see if they can crack the 1.000 goal mark, before they move into their new home.
  22. Just want to reiterate, that I called it. Both of has been big parties are projected to be around 25%, that's enough. Overhangs will probably seal the deal for Laschet (if the CDU doesn't axe him). Since the ARD just had Weidel on. Time for an appropriate song. I think the ARD should be required by law to play it, when they bring on air. Going back to the Bundestag XXL, and Bavaria's role in it. Another song from my misspent youth comes to mind.
  23. IF Martin finally manages to retake Hamburg Nord. That'd be a 10 point increase. Possible since this year Hejduk (Anja Magarete Helene, just to write out her full name) isn't running again, and Beck hasn't quite her profile. So chances are Beck won't be getting 15% of the vote. And then the question is, whether Scholz as former Mayor is bonus or malus for Martin. But I think Ploß (which I assume is the sound a giraffe makes throwing up) will keep it.
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