Werthead

Tel Aviv just took another direct hit right in the city centre. From the dispersion blast this was a big one. Really heavy interception fire over Israel, and Iran is diversifying its attacks now between cruise missiles, ballistics and drones. There was a fire raging at an oilfield near Haifa, but it looks like it's under control. It looks like a missile hit Tamra, where the population is about 99% Arab. Israel is hitting Iran's oil infrastructure. An oil refinery outside Tehran, at Ray, is ablaze. Tehran's main gasoline storage facility has been hit and partially destroyed, most of the depots have exploded, and Iranian fire services were overstretched preventing the fire reaching the houses nearby. The Defence Ministry took a hit but they may have gotten off an interceptor that diverted the missile, which impacted the side of the building rather than the main structure. Iran's communications networks are also degrading. Internet nodes seem to have been hit and there's a communications blackout in parts of the country, though relatively small-scale for now. Israel is very clearly widening this from the nuclear facilities to destabilisation of the regime and the possible complete destruction of Iran's military and communications system, what they did to Syria on a much larger scale. What might kick Netanyahu's arse over this is that he's clearly accepting ballistic missiles hitting Israel and killing civilians as the price worth paying to continue, which I suspect the people being hit have a rather different view on. US destroyers and fighters have intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, the UK and France are not joining in so far. This is the first time that the US has engaged Iranian targets since Iran told them they'd target American bases in response. We're way over the Rubicon at this point. If Iran starts targeting American bases in Iraq with ballistic missiles, where the interception window is much tighter and there aren't as many anti-ballistic systems in place, the US could suffer heavy casualties and would then have no choice but to respond. One unconfirmed rumour at this point is that high-ranking Iranian officials have started evacuating family members to other locations, some in the Gulf, some reportedly to Russia. That could start triggering anti-government protests on a huge scale, if people think their leaders are using their wealth and privilege to flee and leave 90 million Iranians to face missiles and bombs. From the Israeli perspective, they believe the greatest risk from nuclear proliferation is knowledge gained. You can go onto many websites or open many books which basically say, "here's how you build a nuke," but it's bloody hard, requires staggering resources and money, and you need to build up a lot of knowledge from the steps involved. Israel's argument is assassinating the individuals eliminates that knowledge, helps mitigate the deep bunker problem (although I suspect the Iranian government might be "asking" some of the remaining nuclear staff how they feel about staying in these bunkers for good) and also scares shitless people who might come in to replace them (who might very well consider alternatives like fleeing the country instead). It's a logical, if brutal tactic/war crime.

Regime change requires a full-scale ground invasion/operation, which is out of the question without US involvement (and extremely difficult with, an invasion of Iran would require a million troops and tens of thousands of vehicles), or a concerted air campaign in coordination with a local uprising on the ground (i.e. the Northern Alliance, equipped by international forces, taking Kabul whilst American air power pummelled Taliban and Al-Qaeda positions). There is a very dedicated, angry and numerous portion of Iran's population that really hates the regime, including some in the military, this is not in question. But this cohort failed to mobilise larger, more mass support from what it was needed, the older, more rural and more conservative segments. There are many among that group who aren't in love with the Tehran regime but they are also extremely wary of the chaos they've seen engulf Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Libya, taking decades to resolve each time (and in Libya's case, still not there) and would rather the current Tehran regime than either some meek western-appeasing democratic regime (as they'd see it, a possible return to the excesses of the Shah era) or no regime at all and the country in danger of collapse. Also, whilst Iran's hatred of Israel is perhaps not as all-encompassing as might be supposed from the government's attitude, the general Iranian is not celebrating Israel's war on Gaza, and being liberated by having high explosives dropped on residential buildings or radiation released from nuclear bunkers is not likely to improve their sympathies. Regime change in Iran is entirely possible, but certainly not through this mechanism. I don't think it's a realistic goal of the Tel Aviv government. If it was, we might see them doing something like trying to blast through political prison walls (without killing them) and encourage local opposition rather than ignoring them.

Ukraine's intelligence service has been contacting underpaid Russian servicemen and even officers, and getting them to provide information on troop and equipment positioning in return for money, or guarantees of safe passage when surrendering. Apparently this has been going on since day one, but has become more successful recently. It looks like Ukraine is throwing a huge amount of material at the Sumy salient and Russia seems to be on the back foot. One explanation is they used the forces that had been sent to liberate Kursk, so they'd been fighting nonstop since last August without rotation and had run out of the mass of force to keep advancing. Simultaneously Ukraine still maintains two toeholds in Kursk Oblast. Some Russians complaining if they have to retreat, they might have to fall back a way into Kursk Oblast and Ukraine can reoccupy some of the territory they were driven from a few months ago. Ukraine may also be pushing hard from the west to cut off their main axis of retreat, in which case around 15,000-20,000 Russian (and possibly North Korean) soldiers could be surrounded. I wouldn't bet money on that though, the Russians are delaying the Ukrainian forces within Kursk.

From the point of view of the people being caught in the crossfire or are unintended casualties, no. There is a difference between an unjustified war of aggression, and people who are 100% planning to attack you so you hit them first whilst you have the upper hand. The problem is that just about everyone is aware of that, so they'll always claim that an unjustified war of aggression is a preemptive strike, even when that's very clearly bollocks.

The Iranian government is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, despite that being a very likely event to drag the US in. That would have a titanic impact on the global economy. Israel now claims to have achieved air superiority over western Iran and Tehran in particular. Israeli is now attacking Iranian industrial sites, destroying engine factories, drone fabrication plants and anything involved in the production of ballistic missiles and nuclear components (though civilian overspill is definitely happening). They're also still hitting TELs, it looks like they were rather over-optimistic yesterday morning about their operation to pre-emptively halt attacks on Israel. They hit one with a ballistic missile in launch position. Iran's air force appears to have been either completely destroyed or is simply unable to operate due to airfields being hit and Israeli air superiority being almost completely impossible to challenge, especially with MiG-29s, Su-24s and some old F-16s. Iran is still getting hits in, hitting a residential area outside Tel Aviv as well as the city centre. Some damage in Jerusalem, but it looks like it's falling debris. Several Israeli intercepts have taken place outside the atmosphere. Limited missile and drone attacks from Lebanon and Yemen, but they've been relatively negligible. Hezbollah seems to be keeping to its agreement to hold fire. Having said it would not attend, Iran is now reconsidering and may meet with US representatives in Muscat after all. The Iranian government has said it will only target American, French or British assets in the Middle East if they aid Israel in repelling missile attacks (the US apparently already has, so who knows). Iran continuing to launch Shaheds but they're being shot down with ease at this point. Israel's air defence is just too strong for them to make any impact.

I meant the live camera they have in Tel Aviv, they're interviewing some Reagan-era US politician at the moment. On Twitter and BlueSky there's a lot of footage of Iranian missiles hitting Tel Aviv and exploding with enough force to crack open Earth like an egg, with some of the worst CG mushroom clouds this side of C&C: Red Alert 3.

Additional big hits in Tehran, air warnings again in Israeli cities. More missiles reported to have been launched against Tel Aviv. Possibly slower-moving ones. Some claimed footage of another hit on Tel Aviv city centre, but the blizzard of bullshit AI stuff out there is making confirmation hard (the BBC live feed isn't running at the moment).

I think this is a reasonable question given everything that's happened for the past 25-ish years ("45 minutes" anyone?), but the IAEA themselves may have triggered these events - or provided semi-credible cover - with its warning just this week that Iran has enriched enough uranium to 60%, which is about 50% more than you need for any credible civilian use, and 30% less than needed to make a bomb. The enriching process speeds up as you do it, so once you get to 60%, you can get to 90% - nuke city - in a matter of weeks. Some inspectors also said they detected individual particles enriched to 83% at one facility. These events triggered the IAEA's first official reprimand/warning to Iran in twenty years of sanctions and monitoring. Obviously enriching enough uranium to make a bomb is one thing, creating a bomb and sticking it on a warhead is another, and it took North Korea years to get over this hump in the road. But Iran already has nuke-capable warheads, it has help from Russia (and probably North Korea) and it can cross that hurdle much more quickly. So it's fairly credible that Iran has closed at least to within several months of making a nuclear warhead, and within weeks of being able to do a test-detonation. This isn't Hans Blix telling GWB and Tony Blair they're full of shit, this is the IAEA saying, "oh shit."

There is significant political opposition in Iran, but this opposition can only really gain momentum and power if they win the argument with the conservative (usually older and more rural) part of the population and at least some of the military (including the Revolutionary Guard). The 1979 revolution succeeded because disparate parts of the country who weren't natural allies - Islamic hardliners, clerics, conservatives, students, a part of the military and the semi-secular and even more liberal part of society - all agreed the Shah and his cohort were corrupt AF and joined forces to get rid of them. Afterwards the Islamic hardliners became the strongest unifying force in the country and the hopes there'd be a broad-spectrum government representing all parts of the society kind of collapsed, and given that Iran was almost instantly put under huge pressure (from the US and then Iraq) there was no real time for the internal society to reorganise. More recently similar arguments was being made against this government, that corruption was rife, they were dangerously dragging Iran into military confrontation with superior foes, they'd lost all their allies, and they were spending more time policing dress codes than figuring out how to grow the economy and end the sanctions regime, and that was fuelling the opposition movement. I don't think they were close to an uprising or a successful revolution, but we know these things can go from very stable to total collapse in about a week once the boulder starts rolling. However, bombing Iran heavily and trying to kill the religious leader may backfire, and Iranian society may (however reluctantly) start supporting the regime more heavily, at least in the short term. As we've seen in Gaza there could be elements using these attacks to try to unseat the government but, also as in Gaza, their chances of success are questionable.

Iran will have nukes and then Saudi Arabia, probably Turkey and Egypt as well.

Second wave of missile strikes. Israeli air defences engaging. This looks less heavy. Unconfirmed report that two Israeli jets have been shot down by Iran. Some claiming the building hit in Tel Aviv and now partially on fire is the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters in HaKirya.

Multiple ballistic missiles just hit Tel Aviv, so clearly Israel didn't take out all of the TELs. Looks like direct hits right in the city centre. Heavy air interceptions, it looks like one missile penetrated the defences and hit the base of a skyscraper. These were Iran's fastest missiles, the warning between launch and impact was limited.

A close-range dogfight between two Su-25s over Donetsk Oblast, ending with one of the fighters being destroyed. Both aircraft were Russian though, so lots of confused people looking on. One suggestion it was a drill and one of the aircraft disintegrated due to excessive maneuvers. Baffling. There is fierce fighting south-west of Pokrovsk, where the front comes within a few kilometres of the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russians seem to want to establish a toehold in that area. So far Ukraine is holding them back. It'd be a symbolic move, but would effectively complete the Russian occupation of southern Donetsk Oblast. Fierce fighting has also resumed on the Lyman front, where not much progress has been made for some time, but the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade has reported a surprising, sharp rise in Russian soldiers surrendering. Some, mostly newer recruits, take part in a few attacks before giving up. Possibly partisan activity in Makeevka, Donetsk Oblast, with a Russian military convoy attacked and destroyed. Ukrainian commentators bemoaning the Israeli attack on Iran did not happen two years ago, when it would have likely seriously damaged Russia's supply of Shahed drones. However, Russia has since opened Shahed production sites in Tatarstan, so can build its own at pace (though engines apparently are still coming from Iran direct).

The scale of this is much bigger than expected. Iran's entire air defence network appears to have been eliminated, and some suggestion that F-15s and F-16s are engaging targets of opportunity where detected on and over Iran. The distinct waves of attacks have ceased and there is just continuous engagements, presumably limited only by the fighters' need to refuel (which seems to be happening back over Syria or Iraq). Israeli recon drones operating in the skies over Tabriz, some small arms fire trying to reach them but they are out of range. Individual TELs are been destroyed across the country, which will halt any large-scale ballistic missile reprisal strikes. One line is that the Israelis never expected this level of success in taking out the country's entire air defence network in one go and are now going for the jugular. Key was the destruction of the Subashi radar site, which has apparently knocked out radar control for almost the entire NW corner of the country (Israel seemed to expect Iran to have backup facilities, but apparently not). What is interesting is that Israel seems to have had intelligence on Iranian deception programmes. A bunch of ordinary lorries were targeted and destroyed, some on the move, and they seem to be TELs disguised as civilian vehicles. Chinese satellite imagery confirming that the Kermanshah underground facility has been repeatedly hit, possibly with missiles and drones directed to fly right inside via the tunnel entrances and then detonating deep inside the facility. Unconfirmed reports that Iran's Phantom squadrons have been destroyed on the ground, and several MiG-29s hit. Now looks like the Fordow Nuclear Enrichment Plant is under attack, Israel had not previously targeted it.

Any thought of a massive regional conflagration I think is now out the window. Israel has basically destroyed Iran's entire air defence network (having degraded it last year), its S-400s and radars never even saw a single F-35, and once they were down, Israel's less-advanced aircraft were able to start operating with impunity. Iran doesn't seem to have tried to launch its own intercepts. Israel also closely targeted Iran's ballistic and cruise missile launch sites, destroying multiple sites where Iran had missiles standing by to respond. Iran can probably switch to backup sites but not quickly. Israel also decapitated the Republican Guard and parts of the regular military, killing 20+ senior members of the country's military. Apparently there was some hard and fast horse-trading in just a few hours to get replacements in place, during which time Israel continued targeting missile stockpiles and then the nuclear sites. Iran can still respond, and in force, but they need to regroup. Their drones are useless, Hezbollah and the Houthis are degraded and out of the fight, and Iran basically has zero friends (the likes of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and most of the Gulf states are not exactly crying tears seeing Iran's military being systematically destroyed). The Russian-Iranian mutual defence pact (which doesn't actually require them to help defend one another) was just ignored. The main problem is that Israel cannot take out all of the nuclear sites, and the deep underground bases can only be reached by bunker busters that Israel just doesn't have. If Iran attacks US bases, the USA will respond and destroy all that remains of the nuclear programme. It could be reconstituted, but not fast, and the gained knowledge is more vital but if Israel continues eliminating individual nuclear scientists, then they'll lose that knowledge or flee the country. The hope that this triggers a massive uprising to tear down the regime does seem far-fetched though. In the short term, Iran be able to rally mass support, but that might not endure a long campaign.

The Spectator is questionably claiming that there are signs of weakness in President Xi's authority in China, citing recent low-profile meetings and some permitted media criticisms of formerly untouchable Xi loyalists. Hmm. Take that with a pinch of salt. Meanwhile, Taiwan has apparently developed close but low-key contacts in the governments of Finland and Israel and discussing with them the issues of being a small, low-population power right next to a dangerous, threatening one. Apparently some Taiwanese officials have been saying they don't believe the old standby strategy - hold out one month for the US fleet to arrive in force - is reliable any more given Trump's unpredictability. More concerning is Trump briefing that he's not confident of reaching a deal with Iran and talks in Muscat over the weekend may be "do or die" for doing a deal. If a deal is not reached, Israel may launch massive air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, as soon as early next week. The plan appears to be for Israel to launch an initial wave of attacks solo, and the US will only support if Iran targets US bases in the region in response. Iran's military forces have apparently gone to a higher state of alert and hundreds of cruise missile launch areas are being prepared for possible use. Veteran region-watchers seem to be all over the shop, some saying this is a maximalist show of force to intimidate Iran into doing a deal, others that it's "the worst-case alarm scenario they've ever seen" that Israel and Iran have never been closer to all-out war. The key change is the collapse of Iran's partner regime in Syria and the chronic weakening of both Hezbollah and Hamas, leaving Israel to free to focus all of its force and power on Iran alone. However, there seems to be an assessment that Israel does not have sufficient deep-range penetration weapons to target Iran's key facilities and to destroy these the United States will have to get involved directly.

One of the main scary things about the Cybermen is that they turn you into more of them (think the Borg, but the Cybermen came first, and almost certainly heavily inspired them). I would say that they are not well-used by Chibnall (Series 11-13), and they're a bit hit and miss under the Moffat era (Series 5-10). The Davies 1 Era (Series 1-4) probably uses them the best, out of New Who.

Or Brooks' preferred subtitle, Spaceballs 3: The Search for Spaceballs 2.

Ukraine has launched what appears to be a focused counter-attack on the Sumy salient. This is something we saw before from them in Toretsk and Vovchansk, holding forces back and then hitting Russia as their effort is cresting and they are low on reinforcements. So far five settlements have been liberated and more are being contested. 19 regions of Russia lost mobile phone connections due to a concerted cyberattack. Ukraine has deployed Bulava, a loitering drone designed to improve upon the Russian Lancet. The Bulava has already been field-tested on the battlefield. Britain is discussing transferring Warrior fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The Serbian President has visited Ukraine and offered to supply Ukraine with the money and resources to rebuild a Ukrainian city after the war ends. This appears to be part of a concerted effort by President Vucic to appease both sides during the conflict. Meanwhile, Hungary has been reprimanded for carrying out what appears to be military reconnaissance along its border with Ukraine. Hungary invading Ukraine is fantastically unlikely, but it might be an effort to force Ukraine to put more troops on the border with Hungary than is really necessary.

Chris Weitz optioned Prince of Nothing and was even pushing to make it was a TV show or movie after his Dark Materials trilogy hit big. Obviously it didn't, and The Golden Compass damaged his reputation enough that it took a while to regroup. Since then he's done enough successful things to circle back round to it, and is currently doing Murderbot for Apple. Whether PoN is still on his radar is unclear; he's apparently been talking up an Elric adaptation recently, so that might have priority.

Fucking hell.

The absence of Three Septembers and a January is a hard one. That's the one I was most looking forwards to when the adaptation was first announced, along with Men of Good Fortune and Sound of Her Wings (though we got those ones).

Israel has transferred two Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, along with 90 missiles. These are older platforms, possibly from the 2000s or earlier, so need some upgrading before they can enter service. The transfer was authorised by the USA. Four Kinzhal missiles were intercepted today by Patriots. A Ukrainian special forces operation has destroyed or disabled two Russian fighter aircraft, a MiG-31 and Su-34. Ukraine is unleashing very heavy artillery, HIMARS, drone and glide bomb attacks on Russian forces on the border of Sumy Oblast, and more gathering in Kursk Oblast behind them. Heavy damage to forwards logistics bases, troop concentrations and vehicles. Western analysis is split on whether the incursion into Sumy is a serious effort or a major diversion from the main front in Donetsk. The main concern in Sumy is not a breakthrough but Russian forces getting just close enough to Sumy to be able to hit it with tube artillery and short-range drones, subjecting it to the same kind of bombardment as Kharkiv and Kherson have been repelling for years. A Ukrainian naval drone has attacked Russian special forces deployed on a gas platform in the Black Sea. 479 drones were launched at Ukraine last night, the largest number in a single attack (breaking several recent records).

It's a spiritual successor to Troika's legendary Arcanum: Of Steamworks & Magick Obscura (2001), with two of the leads on that game being the leads on this. I believe Arcanum may have been name-checked as an influence on BioShock, so that makes sense. This looks like more of a "proper RPG" though, not a linear FPS like BioShock was.

Wild claim that the attack on the Russian train was carried out by drones hidden inside the train that first targeted the engine, shutting it down, and then attacked other cargo carriages. Once the train was immobilised, drones launched from Ukraine directly attacked. Waiting for confirmation of that because that sounds a bit bonkers (how did they get out?)