Werthead

Additional big hits in Tehran, air warnings again in Israeli cities. More missiles reported to have been launched against Tel Aviv. Possibly slower-moving ones. Some claimed footage of another hit on Tel Aviv city centre, but the blizzard of bullshit AI stuff out there is making confirmation hard (the BBC live feed isn't running at the moment).

I think this is a reasonable question given everything that's happened for the past 25-ish years ("45 minutes" anyone?), but the IAEA themselves may have triggered these events - or provided semi-credible cover - with its warning just this week that Iran has enriched enough uranium to 60%, which is about 50% more than you need for any credible civilian use, and 30% less than needed to make a bomb. The enriching process speeds up as you do it, so once you get to 60%, you can get to 90% - nuke city - in a matter of weeks. Some inspectors also said they detected individual particles enriched to 83% at one facility. These events triggered the IAEA's first official reprimand/warning to Iran in twenty years of sanctions and monitoring. Obviously enriching enough uranium to make a bomb is one thing, creating a bomb and sticking it on a warhead is another, and it took North Korea years to get over this hump in the road. But Iran already has nuke-capable warheads, it has help from Russia (and probably North Korea) and it can cross that hurdle much more quickly. So it's fairly credible that Iran has closed at least to within several months of making a nuclear warhead, and within weeks of being able to do a test-detonation. This isn't Hans Blix telling GWB and Tony Blair they're full of shit, this is the IAEA saying, "oh shit."

There is significant political opposition in Iran, but this opposition can only really gain momentum and power if they win the argument with the conservative (usually older and more rural) part of the population and at least some of the military (including the Revolutionary Guard). The 1979 revolution succeeded because disparate parts of the country who weren't natural allies - Islamic hardliners, clerics, conservatives, students, a part of the military and the semi-secular and even more liberal part of society - all agreed the Shah and his cohort were corrupt AF and joined forces to get rid of them. Afterwards the Islamic hardliners became the strongest unifying force in the country and the hopes there'd be a broad-spectrum government representing all parts of the society kind of collapsed, and given that Iran was almost instantly put under huge pressure (from the US and then Iraq) there was no real time for the internal society to reorganise. More recently similar arguments was being made against this government, that corruption was rife, they were dangerously dragging Iran into military confrontation with superior foes, they'd lost all their allies, and they were spending more time policing dress codes than figuring out how to grow the economy and end the sanctions regime, and that was fuelling the opposition movement. I don't think they were close to an uprising or a successful revolution, but we know these things can go from very stable to total collapse in about a week once the boulder starts rolling. However, bombing Iran heavily and trying to kill the religious leader may backfire, and Iranian society may (however reluctantly) start supporting the regime more heavily, at least in the short term. As we've seen in Gaza there could be elements using these attacks to try to unseat the government but, also as in Gaza, their chances of success are questionable.

Iran will have nukes and then Saudi Arabia, probably Turkey and Egypt as well.

Second wave of missile strikes. Israeli air defences engaging. This looks less heavy. Unconfirmed report that two Israeli jets have been shot down by Iran. Some claiming the building hit in Tel Aviv and now partially on fire is the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters in HaKirya.

Multiple ballistic missiles just hit Tel Aviv, so clearly Israel didn't take out all of the TELs. Looks like direct hits right in the city centre. Heavy air interceptions, it looks like one missile penetrated the defences and hit the base of a skyscraper. These were Iran's fastest missiles, the warning between launch and impact was limited.

A close-range dogfight between two Su-25s over Donetsk Oblast, ending with one of the fighters being destroyed. Both aircraft were Russian though, so lots of confused people looking on. One suggestion it was a drill and one of the aircraft disintegrated due to excessive maneuvers. Baffling. There is fierce fighting south-west of Pokrovsk, where the front comes within a few kilometres of the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russians seem to want to establish a toehold in that area. So far Ukraine is holding them back. It'd be a symbolic move, but would effectively complete the Russian occupation of southern Donetsk Oblast. Fierce fighting has also resumed on the Lyman front, where not much progress has been made for some time, but the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade has reported a surprising, sharp rise in Russian soldiers surrendering. Some, mostly newer recruits, take part in a few attacks before giving up. Possibly partisan activity in Makeevka, Donetsk Oblast, with a Russian military convoy attacked and destroyed. Ukrainian commentators bemoaning the Israeli attack on Iran did not happen two years ago, when it would have likely seriously damaged Russia's supply of Shahed drones. However, Russia has since opened Shahed production sites in Tatarstan, so can build its own at pace (though engines apparently are still coming from Iran direct).

The scale of this is much bigger than expected. Iran's entire air defence network appears to have been eliminated, and some suggestion that F-15s and F-16s are engaging targets of opportunity where detected on and over Iran. The distinct waves of attacks have ceased and there is just continuous engagements, presumably limited only by the fighters' need to refuel (which seems to be happening back over Syria or Iraq). Israeli recon drones operating in the skies over Tabriz, some small arms fire trying to reach them but they are out of range. Individual TELs are been destroyed across the country, which will halt any large-scale ballistic missile reprisal strikes. One line is that the Israelis never expected this level of success in taking out the country's entire air defence network in one go and are now going for the jugular. Key was the destruction of the Subashi radar site, which has apparently knocked out radar control for almost the entire NW corner of the country (Israel seemed to expect Iran to have backup facilities, but apparently not). What is interesting is that Israel seems to have had intelligence on Iranian deception programmes. A bunch of ordinary lorries were targeted and destroyed, some on the move, and they seem to be TELs disguised as civilian vehicles. Chinese satellite imagery confirming that the Kermanshah underground facility has been repeatedly hit, possibly with missiles and drones directed to fly right inside via the tunnel entrances and then detonating deep inside the facility. Unconfirmed reports that Iran's Phantom squadrons have been destroyed on the ground, and several MiG-29s hit. Now looks like the Fordow Nuclear Enrichment Plant is under attack, Israel had not previously targeted it.

Any thought of a massive regional conflagration I think is now out the window. Israel has basically destroyed Iran's entire air defence network (having degraded it last year), its S-400s and radars never even saw a single F-35, and once they were down, Israel's less-advanced aircraft were able to start operating with impunity. Iran doesn't seem to have tried to launch its own intercepts. Israel also closely targeted Iran's ballistic and cruise missile launch sites, destroying multiple sites where Iran had missiles standing by to respond. Iran can probably switch to backup sites but not quickly. Israel also decapitated the Republican Guard and parts of the regular military, killing 20+ senior members of the country's military. Apparently there was some hard and fast horse-trading in just a few hours to get replacements in place, during which time Israel continued targeting missile stockpiles and then the nuclear sites. Iran can still respond, and in force, but they need to regroup. Their drones are useless, Hezbollah and the Houthis are degraded and out of the fight, and Iran basically has zero friends (the likes of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and most of the Gulf states are not exactly crying tears seeing Iran's military being systematically destroyed). The Russian-Iranian mutual defence pact (which doesn't actually require them to help defend one another) was just ignored. The main problem is that Israel cannot take out all of the nuclear sites, and the deep underground bases can only be reached by bunker busters that Israel just doesn't have. If Iran attacks US bases, the USA will respond and destroy all that remains of the nuclear programme. It could be reconstituted, but not fast, and the gained knowledge is more vital but if Israel continues eliminating individual nuclear scientists, then they'll lose that knowledge or flee the country. The hope that this triggers a massive uprising to tear down the regime does seem far-fetched though. In the short term, Iran be able to rally mass support, but that might not endure a long campaign.

The Spectator is questionably claiming that there are signs of weakness in President Xi's authority in China, citing recent low-profile meetings and some permitted media criticisms of formerly untouchable Xi loyalists. Hmm. Take that with a pinch of salt. Meanwhile, Taiwan has apparently developed close but low-key contacts in the governments of Finland and Israel and discussing with them the issues of being a small, low-population power right next to a dangerous, threatening one. Apparently some Taiwanese officials have been saying they don't believe the old standby strategy - hold out one month for the US fleet to arrive in force - is reliable any more given Trump's unpredictability. More concerning is Trump briefing that he's not confident of reaching a deal with Iran and talks in Muscat over the weekend may be "do or die" for doing a deal. If a deal is not reached, Israel may launch massive air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, as soon as early next week. The plan appears to be for Israel to launch an initial wave of attacks solo, and the US will only support if Iran targets US bases in the region in response. Iran's military forces have apparently gone to a higher state of alert and hundreds of cruise missile launch areas are being prepared for possible use. Veteran region-watchers seem to be all over the shop, some saying this is a maximalist show of force to intimidate Iran into doing a deal, others that it's "the worst-case alarm scenario they've ever seen" that Israel and Iran have never been closer to all-out war. The key change is the collapse of Iran's partner regime in Syria and the chronic weakening of both Hezbollah and Hamas, leaving Israel to free to focus all of its force and power on Iran alone. However, there seems to be an assessment that Israel does not have sufficient deep-range penetration weapons to target Iran's key facilities and to destroy these the United States will have to get involved directly.

One of the main scary things about the Cybermen is that they turn you into more of them (think the Borg, but the Cybermen came first, and almost certainly heavily inspired them). I would say that they are not well-used by Chibnall (Series 11-13), and they're a bit hit and miss under the Moffat era (Series 5-10). The Davies 1 Era (Series 1-4) probably uses them the best, out of New Who.

Or Brooks' preferred subtitle, Spaceballs 3: The Search for Spaceballs 2.

Ukraine has launched what appears to be a focused counter-attack on the Sumy salient. This is something we saw before from them in Toretsk and Vovchansk, holding forces back and then hitting Russia as their effort is cresting and they are low on reinforcements. So far five settlements have been liberated and more are being contested. 19 regions of Russia lost mobile phone connections due to a concerted cyberattack. Ukraine has deployed Bulava, a loitering drone designed to improve upon the Russian Lancet. The Bulava has already been field-tested on the battlefield. Britain is discussing transferring Warrior fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The Serbian President has visited Ukraine and offered to supply Ukraine with the money and resources to rebuild a Ukrainian city after the war ends. This appears to be part of a concerted effort by President Vucic to appease both sides during the conflict. Meanwhile, Hungary has been reprimanded for carrying out what appears to be military reconnaissance along its border with Ukraine. Hungary invading Ukraine is fantastically unlikely, but it might be an effort to force Ukraine to put more troops on the border with Hungary than is really necessary.

Chris Weitz optioned Prince of Nothing and was even pushing to make it was a TV show or movie after his Dark Materials trilogy hit big. Obviously it didn't, and The Golden Compass damaged his reputation enough that it took a while to regroup. Since then he's done enough successful things to circle back round to it, and is currently doing Murderbot for Apple. Whether PoN is still on his radar is unclear; he's apparently been talking up an Elric adaptation recently, so that might have priority.

Fucking hell.

The absence of Three Septembers and a January is a hard one. That's the one I was most looking forwards to when the adaptation was first announced, along with Men of Good Fortune and Sound of Her Wings (though we got those ones).

Israel has transferred two Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, along with 90 missiles. These are older platforms, possibly from the 2000s or earlier, so need some upgrading before they can enter service. The transfer was authorised by the USA. Four Kinzhal missiles were intercepted today by Patriots. A Ukrainian special forces operation has destroyed or disabled two Russian fighter aircraft, a MiG-31 and Su-34. Ukraine is unleashing very heavy artillery, HIMARS, drone and glide bomb attacks on Russian forces on the border of Sumy Oblast, and more gathering in Kursk Oblast behind them. Heavy damage to forwards logistics bases, troop concentrations and vehicles. Western analysis is split on whether the incursion into Sumy is a serious effort or a major diversion from the main front in Donetsk. The main concern in Sumy is not a breakthrough but Russian forces getting just close enough to Sumy to be able to hit it with tube artillery and short-range drones, subjecting it to the same kind of bombardment as Kharkiv and Kherson have been repelling for years. A Ukrainian naval drone has attacked Russian special forces deployed on a gas platform in the Black Sea. 479 drones were launched at Ukraine last night, the largest number in a single attack (breaking several recent records).

It's a spiritual successor to Troika's legendary Arcanum: Of Steamworks & Magick Obscura (2001), with two of the leads on that game being the leads on this. I believe Arcanum may have been name-checked as an influence on BioShock, so that makes sense. This looks like more of a "proper RPG" though, not a linear FPS like BioShock was.

Wild claim that the attack on the Russian train was carried out by drones hidden inside the train that first targeted the engine, shutting it down, and then attacked other cargo carriages. Once the train was immobilised, drones launched from Ukraine directly attacked. Waiting for confirmation of that because that sounds a bit bonkers (how did they get out?)

Outer Worlds 2 out in October, and the first Microsoft game to go to $80. Yeah, good luck with that. I enjoyed the first game but it was very much 7/10. Grounded 2 also entering Early Access in a few weeks. The first game is my vote for the most underrated game of the last few years, hugely successful with the kids, fun but unnecessary co-op, brilliant world design and a very solid story. My only real disappointment is they're just in another outdoors wildsy area again, I was hoping the second game would be set in the house from the first one. Clockwork Revolution from inXile looks very good, a full-on first-person RPG which melds the choice and consequence from their Wasteland games with a vibe somewhere between BioShock Infinite and Dishonored. Looks like it's picked up a lot of interest from a more in-depth trailer than normal, including the amusing character creation system (where your character is assembled in a police mugshot-creation minigame).

It now appears the F-16 shot down the Su-35 at extreme range using enhanced radar integration from a Swedish-donated AWACS aircraft. This has significant implications for Russia's ability to operate even as close to the Ukrainian border as they are at the moment (not that close). Ukraine has also identified and destroyed two major drone operations bases, one was being used to target civilians in Kherson city.

Owlcat Games though, who are run by Russians who moved their company to Cyprus, re-registered it locally and have been accused of using it to funnel money to the Russian government (they vociferously deny this though, and claim to have employees from all over the world, including in Ukraine, and mildly criticised the Russian government for the start of the invasion). Their previous games have also been a bit messy, with usually reasonable mechanics but thin stories, and using masses and masses of combat to make up for a lack of engaging roleplay opportunities. 50-hour-at-absolute-best games dragged out to more like 150 hours with filler. I'm assuming they simply can't afford to do that here with a more AAA-aping setup. I'm more hopeful for Exodus, which is made up of the ex-Mass Effect team who quit BioWare when they weren't allowed to make a proper next Mass Effect (which makes me wonder what is going on with Mass Effect 5).

I'm not saying it isn't.

Ukraine has hit a Russian train on the move, destroying 12 tanks and over 100 IFVs and APCs. Russian sources are apoplectic. It definitely seems that the quality of Ukraine intelligence and targeting has improved dramatically in just the last couple of weeks. A Russian Su-35 has been shot down, despite being well within Russian airspace. It is currently unclear how this was done, but some Ukrainian sources are theorising that an F-16 was able to engage undetected, despite having no stealth characteristics and the Su-35 being a newer, on-paper-superior plane. Not good, for Russia, especially since taking Kursk would also mean taking the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant right outside and possibly cutting power to a large chunk of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts. However, penetrating the Russian lines all the way to Kursk would be difficult. They had a very narrow window last August that closed rapidly, and the opportunity is less here. The only favourable thing is that they could break directly into the Glushenko Pocket, which could enable them to put troops further north on the latitude of Kursk (but with multiple major rivers to cross to get there). The distances are unfortunately a bit too great.

On the demographic time bomb, it's pretty easy to see it unfolding. The baby boom started in 1945 and the birth rate continued to be relatively high until around 1975, and then dropped off quickly. So it's very figuratively convenient to see a situation where 80 years ago, the population started growing at a very high rate due to native births and that continued for a period of 30 years, dropping off 50 years ago. So we have this very large cohort of 50-to-80 year-olds (and obviously everyone born before the boom years, so the 80-to-115 year-olds, though that number drops quickly the higher up you go, until we reach 1 person at age 115), ranging from people who are still going to be in the workforce for another ~17 years to people who have already been out of it for 13+ years and could still live for a couple decades more. The younger people in this group are still contributing resources to the economy, the older are taking it out. But capitalist societies are pyramidical in their hierarchy; you need masses more people at the bottom of the pyramid paying taxes to benefit the people at the top who are not (or, rather, not any more). If native births dropped off a plateau 50 years ago, have not recovered, and generally gotten worse over time, then you need to introduce more people into the worker pool to pay taxes to support the boomer generation as it cycles out of the working market, through old age (where most will require some form of medical intervention, which has to be paid for) and then off this mortal coil. The figure at the moment is about 25 million people, well over a third of the population, are in that age bracket, so optimally a much larger figure is required below them (in age terms only) in the worker pool paying taxes for their future health, pensions etc. We've had that for a while but it looks like we are now starting to slip (bearing in mind 12-13 million of the population is below the age of 18, so likely not working, and millions more are not working due to health problems and caring considerations, regardless of how the economy is doing) and this will dramatically worsen over the next ~15 years as the remainder of the boomer generation leaves the workforce. On the flipside, people at the higher age end of the boomer generation will be inevitably leaving the figures as more time passes as well. The question is how this is managed: as a society we have largely concluded that leaving people to die in their own bodily fluids at home without social care is unacceptable, but providing support for that is astronomically resource-expensive. If we could somehow start cycling people out of the economy in 30 years time once the boomer generation has passed on (leading to an overall population drop in the UK to more sustainable levels, unlocking vast amounts of property), that might be one solution, though perhaps not a very practical one: someone coming here in their 20s and working hard for 30 years might feel it's a bit ungrateful and unfair to then be told to bugger off home in their 50s, especially as the countries they've come from might be in danger from climatic effects, authoritarian governments or conflicts driven by the same. An alternative might be the arrival of robot labour on a huge scale to alleviate some of these issues, but this does not appear to be imminent or affordable.