Wade1865

Jeor -- thank you, great update! I haven't studied the science / fundamentals as much as you have, so very useful. I love seeing these observations, a great reminder how quickly conditions can turn into disaster if one reacts overly emotional. Worse, if one doesn't know how to invest, and then reacts emotionally. I think we'll see substantial volatilty through the end of this decade, so there's good times ahead for anyone who holds cash ready to deploy. Johns Hopkins made a study of the brain-gut connection, and it confirms (to me) that there's advantage in relying not just on one's brain (centreal nervous system) but also the gut (enteric nervous system). Although reason and thought is best handled within the brain, there's high-value messaging originating in the gut that can facilitate one's efforts (financial, health, et al.).

Tywin et al. -- agreed; preparation is a crutch, go with your gut! This is how I achieved most of my (substantial) downrange and financial successes. Actually, I have a gut feeling you'll get your once in a lifetime dream job by wingin' it. Do you pray?

To clarify -- -25% across the board, or worse. By the time this is over, I'll really be a hobo.

WIN / LOSS PORN TOTAL. I'll keep this update as ratios instead of dollars, but I think people find these fascinating including me. Thanks to my oil & gas holdings, I'm still down -1%. Without XOM, I'd probably be down -15% or more. And I'm anticipating -25% across the board before we see growth again. Much excitement in risk and danger -- absolutely love the emotions I'm feeling, what I live for!! T. Dropped further, now down to -11%. Since my first purchase (this decade), I doubled down, then doubled down again. And I'm considering another round of doubling sometime in the next month or so. The dividends are higher, now at $1.60 USD / share, and the share price is less than $17, which could go lower as the stock market has taken a substantial hit the past 2 days. Moreover, when the Fed increases the interest rate, I expect more value destruction here and everywhere else. XOM. Dropped to +67%. Thus far, my biggest gain thanks to the war in Ukraine and corresponding deglobalization. I may sell this off sooner than planned given the worsening recession. Although there's likely to be gains in the near future, I'm finding it hard to believe I'll reach my unlikely intention of 100% profits. KHC. Droppped from a positive, and is now at -3%. Meh, irrelevant; will hold for dividends and future growth as the economy is restored over the next year or two. WBD. Dropped to -56%; kept as an experiment, though I hadn't actively purchased it. When you have skin in the game, it's surprising how much more education is to be gained as opposed to winning conditions. JPM. Preparing to move into financials, but no clue yet. JPM strikes me an interesting. 0%.

Jeor -- hope is good! I'm relying on reality, and I hope (hahaha) what's being reported is the true-truth, not concealed by politics. The USG and Fed are walking a fine line between hope on the left, reality on the right, and collapse below. It shouldn't be surprising inflation is still high and will continue to be, albeit on a steady decline. And given its (unsurprisingly, imo) persistence, the Fed could raise the interest rate by 1% during their next relevant meeting. Much volatile, such interestings! US Inflation Rates. 2022 (8.3% avg) SEP 8.0 [+/- 0.1; my anticipation] AUG 8.3 JUL 8.5 JUN 9.1 MAY 8.6 APR 8.3 MAR 8.5 FEB 7.9 JAN 7.5 2021 (4.7% avg) DEC 7.0 NOV 6.8 OCT 6.2 SEP 5.4 AUG 5.3 JUL 5.4 JUN 5.4 MAY 5.0 APR 4.2 MAR 2.6 [Covid-19] FEB 1.7 JAN 1.4

Arakasi -- it would have to have been in Morse, hahaha. Mark the date of this incident and compare with future successes. Notable is Hans admitting to cheating as a youth, though why admit that now? Offering unasked information makes one seem guilty, and would only be used against him; i.e., "once a cheater, always a cheater." As you mentioned, though, Hans was cleared, but the stigma (reinforced by Elon!) will never be forgotten amongst that crowd of players.

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see. -- Arthur Schopenhauer (on winning chess tournaments)

Arakasi -- hahaha, I read about this by way of Elon and his theory on how Hans may have cheated.

LynnS -- give him an Amazon “comixology” subscription. He can figure out what he likes, there’s a lot of variety. After a 30-day free trial, it’s 6 bucks a month.

Alarich II -- according to Finbold, 70% of BTC addresses worth $1 million USD or more were wiped out in the first half of this year. And across all crytpocurrencies, over $1 trillion USD in value has been lost. I looked at COIN, the stock price is approaching $68 USD, down from a nearly $354 USD high within the last year. On one hand, holding BTC or COIN is one hell of a risk to take for the masses. On the other hand, there's potential for a lot of gains to be made by the few.

Jeor -- very helpful, value-added! I knew two boomers who attempted electronic day trading in the late 90s and early 00s, shortly after receiving inheritances. Millions in USD lost, never permanently regained. Even I could feel the heartbreak. I've also heard several more horror stories second-hand from others. Yet, it (and even swing trading) is still a very appealing idea. Too dangerous, though, as a general strategy. Passively investing since 2008, I estimate I've made a little more than two dozen trades (buying and selling), averaging about 2 trades a year. Infrequency, and over-concentration, are major reasons why I've been beating the market consistently, but I ack the risk and intend to distribute it. Right now I feel comfortable with energy, communication services, and consumer staples. The next sector I move into is probably going to be financials or utilities. Ultimately, as I learn more about stock investing, I'll move half my funds into 10 sectors, with 10% invested in each; and (probably) hold the other half as deployable funds for short- and medium-term exploitations. Excellent analysis on the individual investor's advantages. I noticed several actionable implications, and if actively employed, would enhance returns.

mcbigski -- that's probably the primary reason why I've avoided index funds, being inherently non-conformist. I'm sure there's some value in following the crowd (e.g., safety, belonging), but the best case end-state is average. And average is failure, imo; worse, lethal if the crowd really is moving toward some unforseen disaster. Moreover, I suspect that the more people who index, the less gains are available -- unsure, though.

Alarich II -- yes, and the ratio is extreme. Numbers I've seen claim around 95% of professional investors fail to beat the market (specifically, the S&P 500) over time. For regular, and ordinary, investors, the ratio is likely no better, or maybe even worse. Yet, there are extraordinary investors, like Warren Buffet. I'm sure thre are additional outliers (though none as successful as him) who can also achieve unusually high returns, consistently over time.

Heartofice -- what's interesting to me is that by now most people should realize the intense volatility of crypto. I won't claim he's not trying to tap or exploit a fresh batch of inexperienced investors, but it also tells me he might genuinely thinks there's now room to profit off the Bitcoin collapse.

Ormond -- I'd forgotten, I did read one of Danielle's books, Jewels. First and last romance novel, cause of some girl's recommendation back in High School. Ah, yes ... the Whitfields; their son, warm and generous; their daughter, rebellious and willful. Surprisingly, the book wasn't bad at all.

Jeor -- impressive breakdown, thank you for sharing. I found it valuable and thought-provoking while recalling my own experiences. And I suspect it could provide greater value to young people (in their future, should they recognize it) given how cyclic both stock and real estate markets are in the West. Likewise, it was a high-paying, stable profession that allowed me an adequate accumulation of money, which I then depolyed shortly after the GFC; and subsequently, the US subprime mortgage crisis. It was during these times when I acquired a taste for (what was then perceived to have been) reckless risk, which I have maintained to this day. In hindsight, of course, it was the height of prudence (...not luck). The majority of people I knew, including family and friends, lost jobs then homes; and collegues, lost value as their stock holdings collapsed. The rest hesitated and failed to exploit both events. If they'd been able to hold (or add to) their holdings, they'd have seen not only a recovery but substantial increases in value / profit. I've already spelled out my timeline, so I'll expand by illustrating (by way of ratios) how my stock holdings look now; T is down 6%; XOM, up 72%; KHC, up 6%; and WBD (a T spinoff I kept out of curiosity), down 54%. If it weren't for big oil and the war in Ukraine, I might be toward the bottom, or even underwater. We diverge on investment methods, which I find to be an incredibly interesting comparative case study, for anyone interested. My criteria is based on feeling and intuition, informed by geopolitics and socially-based traffic (i.e. direct interaction and social media). I use no boundaries (stop-loss, etc.) and pay only passive attention to daily changes. Reckless, I'm sure, but applied the same way I operated downrange, with equally beneficial gains. Warfighting ... moneymaking ... both are nothing more than (very, very serious) games, to me. *** THIS IS NOT ADVICE -- DON'T BE RECKLESS HAHAHA

BigFatCoward -- I sympathize with the private investor as well, genuinely. I felt there was merit (but not for me) in cryptocurrencies. And I wouldn't be surprised if it rebounds in the future, though I wouldn't bet money on it... NFTs, on the other hand, were so often advertised (by way of exclusivity, or in an arcane way, by Twitter influencers; e.g., Wall Street Playboys) by the crypto community when Bitcoin, et al., skyrocketed; in order to lend legitimacy, and exploit the uninformed mass who jumped in late. As reckless as I was, I'd never go beyond stocks, bonds, real estate. Jeor -- that's the best description I've seen on cryptos. Room for profit, yes, if you've got the right touch.

Do we have any knowledgeable locals on this board, or those familiar, with Ukrainian real estate? Kiev (or Odessa), city-center (or seaside) property. Hmm? Slava Ukraini, by the way

Imagine being Leonardo’s student.

There's a excellent series called, The Black Monday Murders (Hickman). It's less superhero and action; more detective / occult and expertly ties into Mammon and Wall Street. I'm not a big comic book reader as I find them too thin, so I read them when exhausted. This book, however, I had to read and reread while focused. I liked Baltimore (Mike Mignola), but I found this one more intriguing.

KalVsWade -- no, authority and training applies to all law enforcers, moderated by their individual principles. In fact, these concepts reinforce how frequently it's used. For example, Derek Chauvin was granted both, and he exploited it during a killing, assuming he would not experience backlash. On violence being inherent to humanity, yes, of course. Politicians realized this since the beginning of civilization. And they focused the use of violence, to achieve their goals, by granting authority and providing training (among other things).

Week -- in the case of law enforcement, authority and training.

Larry of the Lake -- I believe you. My answer wasn't sarcastic or rhetorical.

Larry of the Lake -- I found this thoughtful (in subtext). The common view of Hearts and Minds as a theory is that pacification can be achieved through influence; however, in practice, it's most usefully applied by way of coercion and violence. Thus, BLM success would have been more effective through a practical (Necks and Guts) application.

RhaenysBee -- most of what you mentioned is relatable (there seems to be a lot of overlap relative to my former profession, which was bureaucratic-heavy), particularly what you said on top-down taskings. One of my partnered colleagues and I would sometimes tell each other, "row the boat; just, row the boat," to stay motivated, hahaha -- therapeutic, maybe. Interesting glimpse into the corporate world, one I might have pursued in a different life. Your ideal, and optimal, lifestyles sound very appealing -- pleasant, peaceful, contented. I was preparing for my own version of the ideal, about the time I found myself (early- to mid-thirties) at risk of being pushed out. I sympathize, appreciate you sharing.