Maithanet

Come at the king, you best not miss. RIP Michael K. Williams Prigozhin will get no such condolences from me.

Just finished Inferno by Max Hastings, and man was that book ever long. I think I started it back in March. It was a good WW2 book, I definitely learned some things and his ability to consider different aspects of the war from different perspectives was quite interesting. But I'm quite glad to be done with it and can move on to easier fare.

I tried bluesky and it was terrible. There's nobody there (or if they are, they aren't talking about anything I'm interested in). I was really disappointed.

Still seems very hard for me to believe that the Ukrainians could make a thrust like that. The supply situation would be so tenuous, and you would have to risk a huge portion of your best troops. Russia would almost assuredly call in whatever air forces are available, even if it meant losing a few aircraft. Ukraine on the other hand would be relying on whatever mobile air defenses they can bring with them (and the ammo therein). Russian troops aren't right in the area, but they aren't that far either. If Russia pulls back and gives up a portion of their fixed defenses, but crushes a bridgehead of Ukraine's best troops, that is a trade they're probably willing to make. If I'm wrong and the Ukrainians can pull it off, I'll be delighted. But it has always looked like a bridge too far for me.

With Snyder gone, it is possible, but thus far, no.

Hey @Mexal, back in February you said: Did they load up? How are you feeling about this year?

That's hardly an example of a swing voter. Polarization means both parties have a high ceiling, but I feel like given where things are today, I would expect Biden to be polling in the high 40s, rather than at ~40%.

That is definitely happening, the question is just whether it indicates a sufficient number of voters in meaningful states to matter. But I am concerned that Biden is as unpopular as he is when, at least IMO, he's been doing a solidly B+ job, and that's better than I expected he would do. It is hard for me to understand how a low information voter could experience the past 3 years of Biden, compare it to the 4 years of Trump and think that we ought to go back.

Yes, although they are also trying to get around it and force the Russians to leave or be surrounded.

Breeland was in Washington for 4 years back when I was a fan of that team, and I don't ever remember him getting into any trouble, or seeming like a bad dude. He was a 4th round pick and by all accounts he worked hard to become a starter. I remember being disappointed when he left in free agency. I can't help but wonder if head injuries played a factor here. We'll probably never know. Maybe he's just terrible with money and started getting into trouble as soon as he was outside the structure of NFL training. But it is a shame that a young man who should have been set for life (along with the rest of his family) instead is going to be spending decades in prison.

It hits everyone in Russia that doesn't have tangible assets to sell overseas. So basically everyone who isn't an oligarch. If you are an upper middle class Russian, like a business owner or computer programmer, this makes paying your bills much more difficult. Runaway inflation and the collapse of the ruble as a valuable currency were one of the biggest hallmarks of the "bad old days" in 1990s Russia. A huge part of Putin's continuing pitch to the Russian people is that he put an end to that and if it starts coming back, that is not a good sign for his regime. Obviously this won't happen overnight, but if inflation continues at 10+% per quarter, that is a huge problem for overall stability.

Russia hikes their interest rate from 8.5% to 12% overnight in an attempt to shore up the weakening ruble. That's not a great sign, and will certainly cause a lot of pain on everyone outside the oligarch class in Russia.

Well, the state of Georgia found 12 more votes for Trump.

I'm not an expert, but my impression is that he has always been a d-bag, but there are definitely indications that he is getting worse in the past couple of years. 5-10 years ago, he was much more focused on being rich and whatever technologies he was interested in. Nowadays it seems like that has all taken a backseat to conservative grievance politics.

Typically low information voters choose No on ballot initiatives they don't understand. It's something of a status quo bias.

Virtually all of the 2023 special elections (and I would include this) have had good results for Democrats compared to the baseline of 2020 results. The Wisconsin Supreme Court being the biggest, but there have been others, and the picture is relatively consistent. We'll see how the Virginia legislative election go in November for more information. It certainly is concerning. At the moment Trump is not just leading, but defining the Republican party. Even if you have been a stalward Republican for decades, if Trump feels you crossed him, you're a RINO and you run a real risk of being primaried. There are a few guys who have survived that (GA AG Raffensburger most notably) but plenty of others who didn't. In that kind of environment, it is basically impossible to run a primary against Trump. All the candidates are afraid that attacking him head on and making him look bad will just make his sizable fan club very angry. Desantis and co are learning that running in an election where you are afraid to go after the frontrunner is basically impossible. Desantis ran his campaign initially as if he were the frontrunner (mostly ignoring Trump and attacking Biden and various culture wars issues), but Trump always seizes the spotlight and he has to respond (which he does very feebly). It is a recipe for disaster. Plus, at least on the national stage, Desantis has been a horrible candidate. The economy looks to be headed in the right direction. Gas prices are going back up because of the Ukraine war, but other than that plenty of key measures like wage growth and unemployment look very promising. All we can do is hope that continues.

Ohioans vote to keep thier rights! Looks likely (but by no means certain) that Ohio will be able to codify abortion rights statewide via referendum.

Big referendum in Ohio tonight will determine if Ohio voters want to increase the threshold for future referendums from 50 to 60 percent. This is supported by Republicans because they are afraid of popular democratic initiatives like abortion legalization. So we'll see if the people of Ohio want to give away power to the legislature. That isn't usually very popular, and I expect it to fail, but who knows with Ohio voters these days.

Lots of reports of multiple explosions around the Kerch bridge in the past couple hours. Still dark right now so no way to know the extent of the damage until dawn.

Particularly in a state like Georgia which Republicans control basically everything. All the statewide offices and both chambers of the legislature are held by Republicans. If your conspiracy theory is that Warnock didn't really win, then why were all these powerful people so unable to stop it?

China has been providing a great deal of products to get around sanctions, including some military stuff like body armor and small arms. But that is not aid, it's trade. Russia isn't getting anything free from China as far as I know. So long as that remains true, this is a long way from a proxy war.

How many do you need? I would much rather have 2-3 really promising candidates than a clown car of 20 mediocre senators.

I don't think the democratic field is weak. Whitmer and Warnock in particular seem like very promising candidates.

I don't want to belabor this point, but IMO Pence's statement reads like it is carefully worded to soften any criticism of Trump. If he wanted to actually throw down with Trump, he would say the obvious, that I saved American democracy when Trump tried to destroy it, that I am willing to stand up to "the elites" regardless of party, and that is why I should be your choice as president. A huge portion of the Republican electorate isn't ready to hear that message, but unless Pence can actually spread that message, his campaign is completely hopeless anyway.

Chris Christie is the exception, I should have mentioned him. Pence could have actually stood up for himself, the truth and the country, but instead made a vague inoffensive statement that doesn't sound like it has anything to do with Trump. He is clearly trying to avoid taking shots at Trump for...some reason.