IheartIheartTesla

Being smart in bed is underrated Apparently it's a nickname for Detroit (based on rock and roll no doubt). I'm more familiar with motor city or motown.....

Forecasts have been trending towards warmer temperatures and clearer skies here in mid-Michigan, so it should be great viewing. Looking forward to even the partial eclipse.

To be precise, Eddington and his colleagues provided experimental evidence that validated Einstein's general theory of relativity, by measuring positions of stars normally not visible during daytime compared to their position at night.

I've also noticed Biden poll numbers being slightly better in an LV versus RV or A screen, so thats good to hear it wasnt just my imagination. Regarding turnout, we wont hit the heights of 2020, thats for sure.

In more poll news. hearing things about Biden's position improving in the swing states, possibly coinciding with post SoTU and general better feeling about the state of the economy. Good news, he has plenty of time to keep gaining momentum. Not so good news, everything is on a knife edge so any downturn in the economy will kill his chances.

Yeah, he's putting out feelers to see what your situationship is. A more sophisticated version of the 3 am 'wyd' text (in my humble opinion). Just listen to New Rules by Dua Lipa if you dont want to go down that route.

I dont think anything, this is what the polling indicates right now. Biden does noticeably worse when candidates like RFK are included. As I've noted before, a lot of this support vaporizes when the election rolls around, but its still troubling enough.

I've seen some opinion articles on my feed that Biden is slowly 'edging ahead' of Trump in the polls. I dont see it myself in the data (its pretty much statistically tied with Biden slightly worse in swing states). So I have to wonder if this is Democrats changing the algorithm through seeded articles to mitigate some of the doom and gloom permeating the left. Another thing to watch out for is how many third parties actually make the ballots. The Libertarians and Greens are solid, but RFK may not be on that many states choices. He's the one I'm most worried about though.

That's what I think too, or at least I hope thats the truth. Biden needs those large Black turnout numbers in cities like Atlanta and Philly to stand a chance in those states. At the same time, ignoring troubling signs among some sections of Hispanic voters is what resulted in the Miami-Dade disaster, and I wouldnt want his team to ignore those signs. I hope some outreach is planned to the communities comprising members of his 2020 coalition.

538 wrote an article today about how polls in this stage didnt correlate all that well with general election results, but if was mostly unconvincing (not sure historical data from the 70s has much relevance in this cycle - we need in-cycle explanations). Still, the point they made about the Biden campaign publicly dissing polls was a good one, there is still time to turn this around as long as the problem is recognized. I hope the internal discussions are different. One thing that is concerning is two cycles now where Trump numbers were underestimated. Is that being overcorrected for this cycle? Hard to say, but the average of polls can still be biased because of some hidden variable. Or it could be the underestimation is true this cycle too, in which case ....Biden is in some trouble.

Interesting, I did not know that. Wonder what their thinking is, if he'll be friendlier towards Iran or something?

'Consumer' confidence in the economy is slowly ticking up, so maybe the boring answer is that enough people connect that to Biden if the trend continues through November. After all, he is roughly tied in the national polls and needs about a 3-4 point buffer because EC. So the hope would be regardless of where resources are placed, enough voters are peeled away from choosing Trump. At the same time, I have to wonder if Biden has even attempted to strong-arm OPEC to raise production., Trump was willing to play ball with the Saudis, and maybe thats a bridge too far for this administration. I'm also hoping the polls are underestimating Biden strength, and Republican overreach will drive enough women to the polls or at least boost their participation.

Both Rodgers and Ventura are vaccine skeptics to put it mildly, so its probably how they made that particular shortlist. Anyway, I wish for elections to be a relaxed process where we can make informed choices about candidates with competing but sensible ideologies, however, since I became a citizen nearly all the ones I've voted in have been likened to existential threats. This isnt a healthy place to be for a democracy.

Oscars doesnt like 'edgy', otherwise they'd ask someone like Gervais who has made his name skewering the celebrities at the Golden Globes. I think the vibe is different, and they expect a bit more reverence for the entire process. Golden Globes are where fillum people hobnob with the tv hoi polloi. and alcohol flows, so there is a bit more leeway to be irreverent.

The Democrats have more money right now, they should use the momentum of the SoTU to start throwing shade on Trump's cognitive decline in some attack ads (Biden has leaned into his age in his most recent bout of ads). The former also has the benefit of being true, and when Trump tries to defend himself, it results in some ridiculous meme-able moments. Cant wait for the next round of 'Man, woman, camera tv' ridiculousness. I'm not sure trying to convince people the economy is doing great is productive in changing swing voter minds. It might shore up turnout of the base of course. Some of the swing voters seem to care about Trump's criminal charges, I'd throw that in the ads as well.

Tomorrow should be a good challenge for the England batters, if they choose to treat it that way. If they can make India bat again for about ~100 runs and make them sweat a bit, it would something to end the series on a positive note. Havent been paying attention to Aus-NZ. One could write a book about the psychological 'monkey on back' barrier teams seem to have - NZ against Australia, South Africa in any tournament, Pakistan playing India in a world cup, visiting teams touring India or Australia......

Dont know about the 'floating pier' specifically, but there is also note of the US opening a third landcrossing for aid to Gaza (in the north), and the plan is to go with or without the Israelis. I'm presuming this goes for all aspects of aid. The floating pier will take at least 30 days to complete and be handled by the Army Corp of Engineers

The US is announcing (or rather, Biiden will during SoTU) that it will build a floating pier to allow aid into Gaza. I am cynical enough to believe this is to assuage leery Democratic voters, but it should ultimately be a good thing too, yes?

Another collapse from the English middle order. The pitch seemed pretty benign, so not sure what's going on. I do think they need to be a bit more flexible in their line-up though. For instance, giving Bairstow more than enough chances (India did that too with Pujara but at some point asked him to sort out his game).

Well, the match up no one seems to want is here. Regarding the polling for the primaries on the GoP side, they are probably the least predictive of all because of really poor statistics. Still, a few warning signs for Trump. Thing is, there is enough time for Republicans to go back to the fold (same is true for Democrats soured on the administration's Israel policy).

They werent small numbers, and most of the campaigns for 'uncommitted were hastily put together and had modest targets (MI was expecting 10k and got 100k)

Trump continues to underperform his polls, and a lot of college town/suburban GoP primary voters are iffy on supporting him in November. The 'uncommitted' Dem voters also have stronger showings than expected. Big question is how they'll break in November or it they'll (finally, this cycle) vote third party. I still think the down-ticket votes will be better for Dems than expected.

I was surprised that Australia hadnt played (or was it visited) NZ since 2016. The ICC has strange schedules for sure.

People use 'dating apps' differently. Sure, some like a slower courtship process and you can absolutely do that on something like Bumble. Others just want to cut through the chaff and hook up, and there's nothing wrong with that either (or at least, I have no judgment about the latter). Its better even than a one-night stand from a bar encounter when you've made a snap judgment in all of 5-10 minutes.

England got the 'get a first innings lead' part down, but forgot about setting a large enough target to leave the outcome in no doubt. Still, I'm not as confident as others since collapses can easily happen, particularly on a pitch with variable bounce. Whatever the result, it looks like the rookies from both sides have done really well tough.