Eden-Mackenzie

Rather than events, there are two characters I am the most interested in reading more about: Barbrey Dustin and Hoster Blackwood. Barbrey has been discussed a lot, there is no question she is going to play a major role in TWOW, but Hos the Hostage seems to stay below radar. We have a ton of information about him given his apparent position in the story, and almost as soon as we meet him, his link to the story disappears into the woods with Brienne. To me, it seems like he is being setup to be part of something big.

Per the Wiki, Eldon has at least one living son and grandson (apparently there are discrepancies in the Estermont family trees across the books) from his first marriage - they are the heirs to Greenstone, regardless of Eldon’s marriage to Sylva. Should Eldon and Sylva have any children, they will be the heirs to Spotswood, and in the line of succession for Greenstone. It is not unprecedented for one person to inherit multiple titles (House Peake before the Blackfyre Rebellions).

Can she though? The Beric we saw through Arya never had a choice, Thoros made the choice for him, again and again. Then Beric made the decision for Cat. From Thoros’s account, it seems likely Beric thought he could resurrect her without repercussions, as opposed to willingly sacrificing himself for Cat - after all, Thoros resurrected Beric and continued on. Once they’re resurrected, neither Beric nor Cat seem to have the same levels of autonomy and control over their actions. Undead Beric continues the mission Living Beric was given - to restore the King’s peace to the Riverlands, even after the King is dead, after the Hand who gave him the mission is dead, and after the Riverlands seceded. Living Cat’s last rational thoughts were her attempts to save Robb by sparing Jinglebell, as her mind shatters after his death, she murders Jinglebell, and then as Lady Stoneheart, Undead Cat continues this mission, killing Freys and Lannister supporters.

I actually think Roslin’s beauty and maiden-ness are the key to making the whole plot work. If Edmure had been uninterested in the marriage, the distraction of the bedding ceremony as the start of the Red Wedding activities would have way less effective. I believe that, beyond the Greatjon, the captives from Red Wedding were those who participated in the bedding, and when it comes down to it, the captives are what are maintaining the “peace”. By offering Edmure a young, attractive maiden, who could have easily been used for another alliance (if anyone else had wanted a marriage alliance with the Freys), they ensured Edmure would “participate” in the Red Wedding in the way they needed. I would think Tywin, with notes from Roose and Lame Lothar, picked which of Walder’s female progeny would be offered to Edmure, rather than Walder having any say in the matter. Roose had just picked his own wife, and was plotting the Red Wedding with Lothar, so he would have had all the necessary details. In Merrett’s epilogue, he thinks about the women Black Walder has bedded: Petyr Pimple’s wife, Edwyn’s wife, Fair Walda, the seventh Lady Frey; then the Red Wedding; and finally he thinks about his daughters, Ami and Fat Walda. If Roslin had been with child prior to the Red Wedding, it would have crossed Merrett’s mind as he was heading to the meet. And Roslin is not the first woman in the series to become pregnant at first attempt: Cat and Lysa both, Edric Storm’s mother (and probably several other of Robert’s 16), Jon Snow’s supposed mother, etc. It happens in the real world too, and is not unheard of with teenagers.

When the Reach backed Renly, they blockaded the roads into King's Landing, which meant the city couldn’t get any food. Prices skyrocketed, unrest grew, and people turned against the crown. Why in the world would Robert/Jon Arryn want to punish the Reach after the lords swore fealty?

I think the bolded is the biggest obstacle, it would have been pretty difficult to unobtrusively extract an unknowing Sansa, and if they had made contact and made a plan, Sansa herself would have thrown a wrench into it, like she did with both Ned’s and the Tyrells’ plans. It would have probably been an inadvertent wrench, a la the Tyrells’ plan, because I do think Sansa learned her lesson from her disclosure to Cersei, but it would have been a wrench all the same (I’m not saying Robb would have known this, but it is a justification for why it wasn’t written). Tyrion’s failed attempt is also a good reason not to try, Tyrion’s plan was a good one, and still fell apart at the end. Robb had far fewer resources available to him than Tyrion, which he would have known. And a failed rescue attempt could easily have led to Sansa being executed for treason. @Angel Eyes - I believe at some point (maybe when he’s telling Cat his plan to name Jon his heir?), Robb acknowledges that Arya has been missing since Ned’s beheading, so unless he made the rescue attempt very early in Clash, he would have known it was a single target. We don’t know who his inside King’s Landing source is, but if they knew Arya was missing, they would have also known Sansa was being watched by Cersei. They would have needed a skilled and knowledgeable team, and as others have pointed out, that wasn’t something that existed or was available to Robb.

He’s talking about others dwarves, it’s a call back to an earlier conversation the two of them had: ”What do you know of being a bastard?” ”All dwarfs are bastards in their father's eyes.” He’s talking about everyone: Rodrik, Theon, Reek I, the Bastard’s Boy who was injured during the Manderly-Frey melee at Winterfell. Anyone who thinks Ramsay is a friend will be shown to have been mistaken, and probably in pretty short order.

Was Stannis successful? Is he now King on the Iron Throne? No. If Cersei and Joffrey had not been in King’s Landing when Robert died, and if they did not have the backing of Tywin Lannister from the onset, and the addition of the Tyrell forces since Blackwater, things would have unfolded very differently. Location + family connections. Your contention that Rhaenyra was a girl and Aegon was a boy was the first of only two deciding factor ignores the fact that, before his grandson was in a position to contend for the Iron Throne, Otto Hightower wanted Rhaenyra to succeed Viserys, and started advocating for Viserys to name her as heir before Queen Aemma died. It was only after his daughter gave birth to the King’s son that he immediately started agitating to put Rhaenyra aside in favor of Aegon, eleven years before she married Daemon. Family connections. Rhaenyra being a princess rather than a prince may have a factor for some, but it may also have been the excuse others used to justify their treason, committed in the name of remaining in power, in the death chamber of the King they served in life and betrayed in death. Location. As far as everyone in power hated Daemon being the second of only two deciding factors leading to the Dance, it was Otto Hightower who had an intense rivalry and hatred of Daemon, and Otto Hightower who led the council as Hand. Family connections. You are vastly oversimplifying the story by completely ignoring the myriad of other, interwoven factors, which include but are not limited to location and family connections.

I never said they rebelled because they were an influential family, but it was clearly one of the contributing factors for both the rebellion and its successes. As was their possession of King’s Landing at the onset - if Otto, Aegon, and the rest had been in Oldtown instead of King’s Landing when Viserys died, things could have played out very differently. Yes, Stannis would have done as commanded, if he was commanded, but if he had any choice in the matter, say between a pretty child bride or Selyse, it does not seem out of character for Stannis to choose Selyse. And since we know absolutely nothing of the history of the majority of the negotiations of marriages in the books, you cannot truly say there were plenty of options for Stannis. I remember a few years ago there being a discussion of how implausible it was for Ned to have not made marriage pacts for any of his children, but in particular Robb, Sansa, and Arya, before the onset of story. All of those marriages between Stannis’s possible brides and their not-Stannis husbands could have been arranged before, or even during, Robert’s Rebellion.

A small council led by Otto Hightower, who had a history of being against Daemon, but who also saw a chance to make his grandson king and took it, he probably saw it as a win-win that Aegon’s crown would come at Daemon’s expense. As you’ve pointed out, the green side was already at a disadvantage on paper. Without Hightower support and Hightower allies, it would have been even more pronounced, and may have never gotten off the ground. Asha Greyjoy and Arianne Martell were each about 10 when Stannis married Selyse, but seeing as Balon Greyjoy was just a few years short of rebelling, and Arianne was being saved for Viserys, each would have made excuses, and Stannis doesn’t seem the type to take a child bride besides. It’s easy to say surely one of the families would have had a better candidate than Selyse, but we don’t really have enough information to definitively prove that point - we don’t have a complete history of engagements amongst the lords and ladies of Westeros. Lollys Stokeworth is of an age with Stannis, and is definitely available, but that match would hardly have been advantageous. Walder Frey would likely have had multiple daughters and granddaughters of the right age and unmarried/not engaged, but the Freys aren’t really held in high regard either.

Starks: no adult women. Tullys: no adult unmarried women. Arryns: no adult women. Lannisters: no adult unmarried women. Tyrells: no adult women. Martells: no adult women. Greyjoys: no adult women. Baratheons: no adult women (just for completeness). Stannis wasn’t going to marry a Lord Paramount’s daughter or sister, there weren’t any available. My point in mentioning Stannis no longer being first in line was just that - he’s no longer first. Yes, he’s still in the line of succession, and yes, first born son is not guaranteed to inherit the throne, but now that Robert has a (nominal) heir, from the viewpoint of the throne, Stannis doesn't need a politically strong marriage. Stannis marrying someone from a minor house actually helps solidify Joffrey’s position, since if Robert were to, oh I don’t know, die young and unexpectedly, Stannis could get the idea to challenge the underaged Joffrey for his throne. While I’m sure Robert wasn’t too up on his history lessons, I guarantee Jon Arryn and Tywin Lannister were: the Dance of the Dragons was able to happen because of Aegon II’s Hightower relatives; if his mother had been from a lesser house, they wouldn’t have been able to usurp the throne as easily as they did. So yeah, a Florent marriage for Stannis the Heir doesn’t make political sense, but for Stannis the only-going-to-keep-moving-down-the-line it makes perfect sense, from the view of the crown.

“Honey, I’m home, I brought my sister’s bones, Willem Dustin’s horse, and my son Jon.” Little did anyone realize, Ned was playing two truths and a lie... Like everyone else has said, Ned didn’t need to convince anyone, he’s the honorable Eddard Stark, Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North. If he says he has a bastard son, he must have a bastard son. I don’t recall anyone doubting Ned is Jon’s father, the only discussions have been trying to figure out who is the mother, which if anything is in line with Ned’s character - he isn’t someone who would unnecessarily ruin the reputation of the mother just to save himself.

No, she was born in 271/2, and if you think Stannis would have been interested in marrying a seemingly vain, shallow, selfish 14/15 year old, we clearly haven’t been reading the same books. I’m not sure Robert ever acted from a “let’s do something nice for Stannis” perspective, even naming him Lord of Dragonstone has some controversy surrounding it. If anything, Robert and Renly both seem to have enjoyed irking Stannis, so maybe the match was just one big joke to Robert. Or maybe Robert had absolutely nothing to do with the match, and it was arranged by Jon Arryn or even Stannis himself for reasons unknown. Unless the next installment of supplemental material published includes a Westerosi gossip column covering the years since Robert’s Rebellion, we are likely never to know what led to a majority of the marriages. What we do know is proposed matches can be made and fall apart for a variety of reasons. Look at all the stories we do know the details of: Robert, Catelyn, Robb, Edmure, Sansa, basically all of the Martells, and so on. Who’s to say Lynesse didn’t have a string of failed betrothals behind her by the time she met Jorah? Maybe she was engaged to old Lord What’s It, who died of a cough, and then young Lord Who’s It, who was abducted by pirates, then Ser That Guy, who had always loved the miller’s daughter, and then, just as her father starts negotiating to marry her to the second son of Lord The Other Guy, he goes and dies storming the walls of Pyke. And who’s to say Lord Leyton didn’t just want her out of his hair? We simply do not have that information. What information we do have is the marriages Lynesse’s siblings, in particular her sisters, have made: Baelor, the heir, who once hoped to marry Elia Martell, Princess of Dorne, is married to a Rowan, which is basically a lateral move. Two other brothers appear to be unmarried, and a fourth is married to a Green Apple Fossoway. Malora is unmarried. Alerie is married to Mace Tyrell, and clearly wins the competition for best political match. Leyla is married to Ser Jon Cupps, Denyse is married to Ser Desmond Redwyne, and Alysanne is married to Lord Arthur Ambrose, who is at least a lord and not just a lord’s relative. So, all things considered, Lord Mormont is, on paper, one of the better matches made by the Hightower daughters, especially when you consider the extremely recent events of the Greyjoy Rebellion and tourney at Lannisport - Jorah looked to be the next big hero.

Stannis married Selyse in 286/7, Jorah married Lynesse in 289, so no.

They were married before Stannis had a cause, and after Robert had a legal heir (or at least had one on the way). I doubt Stannis would have fallen in love with anyone, so it seems the likeliest explanation for their marriage was it was time for Stannis to get married and Selyse was available. It wasn’t a love match, and it wasn’t politically advantageous, which really just leaves marriage of convenience.