From Aegon’s birth until Lyanna’s death: How much time has passed?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

In answer to the recent questions (“Could Lyanna had been pregnant twice in her time missing?” and “How long was Lyanna missing? Could she have been missing for two years?”), I made an attempt to fill up all the time between Aegon’s birth (since it’s an important point in time) and Lyanna’s death. I posted this on a thread and received positive reactions to it. I am afraid, however, that it would get buried in posts by others, in a month time or so, and that then the same questions would resurface. I figured that by making a thread about it, it would stand a better chance of survival on the forums :) And of course, it is easier to comment on something like this and adjust it if it has its own thread.

So here we go.

First, a couple of facts, which I have used to determine the passage of time.

(1) Rhaegar was in KL when Aegon was born. The maesters spoke to Rhaegar after the birth, and told him Elia would have no more children. This shows Rhaegar was in KL at that moment.

(2) Brandon was on his way from Winterfell to Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna’s disappearance. The fact that died only days before he was to marry Catelyn, and the fact that he had no interaction with Rickard before going to KL, shows that Brandon was closer to Riverrun, than to Winterfell.

(3) Lyanna was 16 when she died in 283 AC, so she was born in 267 AC. When she died, the Rebellion had just ended.

(4) Robert’s Rebellion had lasted close to a year.

(5) Brandon died in 282 AC, one of the events which sparked the beginning of Robert’s Rebellion.

Concluding from (3), (4) and (5), there was about a year in between Lyanna’s death and Brandon/Rickards deaths.

(6) Brandon was 20 when he died

(7) Brandon was also 20 when he fought a duel against Petyr Baelish, who was 15 at the time, when his marriage to Catelyn was made public. After this duel, Brandon left, and vowed to Catelyn they would marry upon his return.

(8) Rhaenys was 3 years old when she died in 283 AC, placing her birth in 280 AC.

(9) Aegon was born in 282 AC, since he was 12 months old, give or take a moon’s turn or two, when he died in 283 AC.

(10) The Tourney at Harrenhall happened in 281 AC.

(11) Elia was at Harrenhall. Not only would it be unwise for a woman with troubling health to travel during pregnancy, there was never a pregnancy mentioned, something which in regards to Rhaegar presenting Lyanna with the flower crown instead of his own wife, would have made an even greater impact on his actions. Conclusion: Elia was not yet pregnant.

(12) You’d almost think this shouldn’t have to be mentioned, but for completion sake. A pregnancy takes 9 months. Since the Martells have discussed in detail how Elia herself was born after a pregnancy of 8 months, it would most likely be mentioned if Elia had given birth to Aegon a month too soon. We can assume Elia’s pregnancy of Aegon lasted the full 9 months. Also, it isn’t that important :p

(13) A full pregnancy lasts 9 months. A child of 8 months, without the medical technology of today, can survive, since, for example, Elia was born a month too soon herself, and she lived. However, a child born after 7 months of pregnancy, without the modern medical technology available to him/her, survival chances are rather slim. Your organs aren’t completely ready, they have yet to finish developing.

(14) In between two pregnancies, a woman’s body needs time to recover, in order for her to be possible to become pregnant again.

With all these facts in mind, we continue :)

I would also like to cite the source which I used to determine the travel time of characters, distances between places, and the travel speed of people, ships and ravens. It’s the most precise asoiaf time line in existence, according to it’s thread title, and boy is it a huge document. I calculated and measured random distances and travel times myself, and they are correct. This document has a high accuracy.

A point to add, is that Lyanna’s location at the time of her disappearing isn’t known to us yet. So solve this dillema, since it is an important piece of information, I’ve put her in Harrenhall, since it is a location very much in the middle of Westeros. Lyanna cannot have been at Winterfell, because Rickard was there, and he would have noticed Lyanna was missing, and thus acted before Brandon would act. Rickard acted after Brandon, and thus, he learned of it last.

Now it get’s more difficult. The order of events:

(1) Rhaegar travelled from KL to Harrenhal to pick up Lyanna, together with Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent.

(2) Rhaegar and Lyanna travel from Harrenhal to ToJ (presumably at once)

(3) In the meantime, Brandon Stark is travelling from Winterfell to Riverrun.

(4) The news about Lyanna travels to Riverrun, and Winterfell. It arrives first at Riverrun, which is closer by.

(5) From Riverrun, most likely a rider is sent out to find Brandon.

(6) Brandon learns of Lyanna’s disappearance and decides to ride for KL at once, and no longer for Riverrun. He takes his companions and rides with great haste.

(7) After Brandon’s arrival and imprisonment in KL, a raven flies from KL to Winterfell, amongst other northern holdfasts, to summon Rickard and the fathers of Brandon’s companions to court.

(8) Rickard travels with 200 men to KL. It is most likely they travelled by horse, and with great haste.

(9) Rickard has arrived in KL and all are killed, save for one. Aerys sends a raven from KL to the Eyrie, to order Jon Arryn to send him the heads of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon.

(10) The raven has arrived at the Eyrie. Jon Arryn sends out orders to call the banners. Robert’s Rebellion has begun.

I’ll pause here, and start calculating.

First things first: the distances between all the mentioned places, as per the timeline document.

KL to Harrenhal: 380 miles

Harrenhal to ToJ: 1030 miles

Harrenhal to Riverrun: 285 miles

Riverrun to KL: 750 miles

Brandon’s location to KL: 860 miles

Brandon’s location to Riverrun: 110 miles

A raven’s distance from KL to Winterfell: 1685 miles

From Winterfell to KL: 2010 miles

A raven’s distance from KL to the Eyrie: 670 miles

Since all these events show that the lives of those involved are potentially in danger, it is safe to assume no one travelled at an easy pace. They would all travel quickly.

A small group can travel 50 miles per day conditioned. They might take a rest day after every third day, but since we have no idea whether or not this has been done, I have decided to use a rest day every other 6 days. Remember, people could be dying, everyone wants to arrive quickly at their destination.

Rickard brings a large group of riders along. Their speed, fast, would be 42 miles per day, with one rest day for every 6 days (which would be used as half a day rest for every 3 days of travel).

A raven with a peak condition (the best of the best) maintains a speed of 362 miles per day is it’s flight lasts 2 to 4 days. Should its flight last longer than 4 days, its average speed drops to 334 miles per day.

To calculate how quickly everyone got where they were going:

KL to Harrenhal: 380 miles 8,6 days

Harrenhal to ToJ: 1030 miles 24 days

Harrenhal to Riverrun: 285 miles 6,7 days

A raven’s distance from Harrenhal to Riverrun:275 miles 1 day

Riverrun to KL: 750 miles 17,5 days

Brandon’s location to KL: 860 miles 20 days

Brandon’s location to Riverrun: 110 miles 2,6 days

A raven’s distance from KL to Winterfell: 1685 miles 5 days

From Winterfell to KL: 2010 miles 55,9 days

A raven’s distance from KL to the Eyrie: 670 miles 1,9 days

From KL to Storm’s End: 480 miles 11 days

From Storm’s End to ToJ: 645 miles 14.9 days

So Rhaegar was still in KL when Aegon was born. Aegon, according to GRRM, was 12 month’s old at his death, give or take a month or two. This makes him 14 months old maximally, and 12 months old minimally at the moment of the Sack. Rhaegar couldn’t have left that long after Aegon’s birth. He had time enough to think about the Prince that was Promised and about how it wasn’t him, but Aegon. He even wrote to Aemon at the Wall about it.

So let’s give Rhaegar until two weeks after Aegon’s birth. On day 15, Rhaegar leaves with Whent and Dayne. They travel from KL to Lyanna’s location, which takes them 8,6 days. This means that 24 days after Aegon’s birth, Rhaegar and his two friends arrived at Lyanna’s location. They left the next day, and would arrive at ToJ (provided they travelled there straight away), 24 days later (if they travelled in great haste), which would put their arrival at ToJ at 28 days after Aegon was born.

Lyanna’s absence would be noticed within a day, since she is a lady of importance. A raven would take a little less than a day to reach Riverrun from Harrenhal, so the news would have reached Riverrun at 25 days after Aegon’s birth.

Brandon was about 860 – 750 = 110 miles away from Riverrun. This would take a rider a little more than two days. A rider from Riverrun would have found Brandon at some point on the 28^th day after Aegon’s birth.

Brandon, of course, travelled straight to KL, not stopping at Riverrun, with his companions. Brandon would have arrived in KL on the 48^th day after Aegon’s birth. Brandon was arrested, and a raven left from KL to Winterfell. This raven arrived 5 days later, on day 53.

Rickard had to summon his men before starting south. Let’s give that a fortnight. The rest of his men he can meet on the road. His travel to KL would take him 56 days. 53 + 56 + 14 = 123. Rickard arrived at day 123.

And he demanded a trial by battle, and both he and Brandon died. All of their companions, safe one, died as well. I can imagine all of this killing took a day or two. After it was all done, a raven left for the Eyrie (on day 125). The raven arrived 2 days later, on day 127.

From that moment on, Jon Arryn called his banners and Robert’s Rebellion began. The Rebellion itself will be fleshed out itself later on in an update.

Robert’s Rebellion begins. It lasts, to quote GRRM, close to a year. Aegon was between 12 months and 14 months old at the end of it. Right now, at the beginning of the Rebellion, Aegon is 127 days old, which comes down to 4 months. Lyanna has now been missing for 127 – 14 – 10 = 103 days, which boils down to 3,5 months.

Again, the quote said “close to a year”, which made me feel like it did not last a full year. My guts tell me that it was about ten months, which would put Aegon’s age at 14 months. It’s safe to say the actual rebellion ended at KL after the Sack.

Now on to Lyanna. She disappeared 103 days, which is 3 months, previous to the beginning of the Rebellion, which lasted for 10 months. Those 10 months will be counted as (10x30,5 = ) 305 days, bouling down to 305+103 = 408 days since Lyanna disappeared. So on day 408, Ned was at KL, and Robert arrived a few days later (let’s give it about 3), after which Ned and Robert got in an argument and Ned rode in great haste and anger to Storm’s End to lift the siege. This travel would have taken him 11 days. Ned arrived there on the 422^nd day after Aegon’s birth. Ned would have stayed at Storm’s End shortly to lift the siege and accept the men bending the knee (2 days, since the Tyrells dipped their banners immediately). The journey from Storm’s End to ToJ would take 15 days. This means Ned would have arrived at Lyanna’s location on day 439.

Aegon was already 24 days old when Lyanna disappeared, which makes Lyanna’s disappearance until her death 415 days long, which is about 13,5 months. To round up, she was missing for about 14 months.

So, to answer the questions this theory was created for again:

“How long was Lyanna missing?” Lyanna was missing for about 14 months.

“Could she have been missing for two years?” No, Aegon was maximally 14 months old when he died. Lyanna did not die long after, and Rhaegar was still in KL when Aegon was born.

“Could Lyanna had been pregnant twice in her time missing?” No. Lyanna was missing for 14 months. A pregnancy takes 9 months, plus recovery time in between, and the womans first menstrual circle. Two pregnancies of 8 months would still not be possible. Two pregnancies of 7 months would also not work, not only because it would be too little of time, but also because the children would not be healthy and stand a rather good chance of dying shortly after birth.

Robert’s Rebellion will be filled in as well, since it is possible for a good portion to do it.

I understand that this is still an estimation, but it is reasonably accurate. Should I have forgotten an event, please tell me, I shall add it.

[Ahura Mazda]

Sorry Ser, but question 2 assumes Rhaegar never left Lyanna alone during the kidnap time..

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Sorry Ser, but question 2 assumes Rhaegar never left Lyanna alone during the kidnap time..

By question 2, do you mean “Could she have been missing for two years?”

[Ahura Mazda]

By question 2, do you mean “Could she have been missing for two years?”

Yeah, and I meant the answer actually.. you state Lyanna couldn't miss 2 years because Rhaegar was at KL after Aegon's Birth.. it seems to me that we have no guarantee that Rhaegar did not leave Lyanna in some safe place to visit his own wife after the "kidnapping".. might it be they have been quite near KL in some secret place for a long time before the rebellion started.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yeah, and I meant the answer actually.. you state Lyanna couldn't miss 2 years because Rhaegar was at KL after Aegon's Birth.. it seems to me that we have no guarantee that Rhaegar did not leave Lyanna in some safe place to visit his own wife after the "kidnapping".. might it be they have been quite near KL in some secret place for a long time before the rebellion started.

But if Lyanna had been missing for two years, Brandon wouldn't have noticed it for a whole year? Actually, no one would have missed her for a whole year? That wouldn't make sense.

And If you suggest that Lyanna travelled to KL on her own and stayed close so she could be with Rhaegar, that would have drawn notice as well. We don't know where Lyanna was, but interactions between her and Rhaegar would have drawn notice.

[Ahura Mazda]

But if Lyanna had been missing for two years, Brandon wouldn't have noticed it for a whole year? Actually, no one would have missed her for a whole year? That wouldn't make sense.

And If you suggest that Lyanna travelled to KL on her own and stayed close so she could be with Rhaegar, that would have drawn notice as well. We don't know where Lyanna was, but interactions between her and Rhaegar would have drawn notice.

I am not suggesting anything at all.

I made a very restricted point on an implication of causality that imho isn't there without assumptions, which - to my understanding - you would like to avoid.

Then it is up to you make the calculations, I don't feel informed enough to actually tackle this topic.

[Alia of the knife]

This is pure speculation on my part, but I always assumed that Lyanna stayed on as a guest of the Whents, because it seems a lot of travel to go back to WF, then back to RR for Brandons wedding.

And in light of the Tourney events Rickard may have moved her wedding to Robert up, and to take place not long aftet Brandons wedding, so kept her closer South, though she could not stay at Stormsend without a female chaperone, which Harrrenhal would have.

[MtnLion]

We have no idea where Lyanna was when she was taken. It seems very likely that she was in Winterfell after Harrenhal's Tourney, for the length of the winter which followed. After the winter the betrothal of Brandon and Catelyn is announced in Riverrun and Littlefinger challenges. Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge, and leaves after severely wounding Littlefinger, promising Catelyn that he would return shortly from an errand. He is returning with Winterfell escorts, more than a fortnight after the duel, when he receives word that has him dash off to King's Landing.

Logically, Lyanna has no ties to Harrenhal. She is, however, betrothed to Robert Baratheon. It is likely that she travels to Storm's End, after the winter. That travel would take her through King's Landing. Is it possible that the word that Brandon receives is that Lyanna has not traveled from King's Landing to Storm's End at the expected time? Suffice it to say that Brandon likely receives word about Lyanna that has him storm into King's Landing demanding that Rhaegar come face him.

Further down the line, when Ned, Robert, and Jon decide to rebel, they must fight some battles in the Vale with Loyalists that do not want to join the rebellion. Ned and Robert would face the same problems when they reach their homes. Ned arrives later, after Robert has fought a few battles, and interestingly Hoster Tully participates in the Battle of the Bells, while we are told that the reason that he joined the rebels is because of the wedding of Jon Arryn and Ned Stark to his girls takes place afterwards. It is important to note that the length of the siege of Storm's End is our measuring stick, at nearly a year, but Robert and his army had already left when the siege was laid. So, the length of the rebellion could easily be more than a year, but not too much.

[tsunad]

A small group can travel 50 miles per day conditioned. They might take a rest day after every third day, but since we have no idea whether or not this has been done, I have decided to use a rest day every other 6 days. Remember, people could be dying, everyone wants to arrive quickly at their destination.

Rickard brings a large group of riders along. Their speed, fast, would be 42 miles per day, with one rest day for every 6 days (which would be used as half a day rest for every 3 days of travel).

Your rate of travel seems high.

Assume everyone is traveling by horse. No wagons or any other cart. I'm getting something like 40 miles per day, tops.

Here's a reference:

Some estimate of the average distance covered in a day by [a thirteenth-century English] household can be gained from the countess of Leicester’s account in February; when the household was at Wallingford, it moved on to Odiham by way of Reading, spending one night there. The journey on each of these days was just over fifteen miles, the normal pace of such a move in midwinter. But in June, when the countess had to hurry across country with her household to the greater safety of Dover castle, she consistently travelled thirty miles a day. This may reasonably be considered as fast as such a large company could move, and the sustained rate of speed hints at the urgency that drove them on.

All thirteenth-century travellers did not of course belong to large retinues, and small groups with good horses travelled much faster. The merchant could do between thirty-five and forty miles a day, travelling only in daylight hours, if his merchandise was light and easily carried on one horse. Freight services, such as commonly transported wine in England or travelled the alpine passes with goods from Italy for the fairs of Champagne, were among the slowest of all traffic. Fastest of all was the messenger, for he also travelled at night and often requisitioned extra horses along his route. He might cover as much as fifty-five to sixty miles a day.

- Source

I would probably say 40 mph is probably a safe top speed, assuming no armour and being prepared to stop at an inn or similar place to reprovision and rest.

Once you'd add in armour and extra provisions (both of which would be needed in war-ravaged regions), plus having to find a place to camp each night, I'd expect you could say half that speed would be more obtainable. Maybe up to 30 miles a day, but you'd be pushing it to beyond that.

I'm not sure if GRRM is aware of these figures though, or has even done the calculations.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

We have no idea where Lyanna was when she was taken. It seems very likely that she was in Winterfell after Harrenhal's Tourney, for the length of the winter which followed. After the winter the betrothal of Brandon and Catelyn is announced in Riverrun and Littlefinger challenges. Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge, and leaves after severely wounding Littlefinger, promising Catelyn that he would return shortly from an errand. He is returning with Winterfell escorts, more than a fortnight after the duel, when he receives word that has him dash off to King's Landing.

Logically, Lyanna has no ties to Harrenhal. She is, however, betrothed to Robert Baratheon. It is likely that she travels to Storm's End, after the winter. That travel would take her through King's Landing. Is it possible that the word that Brandon receives is that Lyanna has not traveled from King's Landing to Storm's End at the expected time? Suffice it to say that Brandon likely receives word about Lyanna that has him storm into King's Landing demanding that Rhaegar come face him.

Further down the line, when Ned, Robert, and Jon decide to rebel, they must fight some battles in the Vale with Loyalists that do not want to join the rebellion. Ned and Robert would face the same problems when they reach their homes. Ned arrives later, after Robert has fought a few battles, and interestingly Hoster Tully participates in the Battle of the Bells, while we are told that the reason that he joined the rebels is because of the wedding of Jon Arryn and Ned Stark to his girls takes place afterwards. It is important to note that the length of the siege of Storm's End is our measuring stick, at nearly a year, but Robert and his army had already left when the siege was laid. So, the length of the rebellion could easily be more than a year, but not too much.

GRRM himself has said that the rebellion lasted close to a year. Taking his quote about Aegon's age upon death in account, I reached the conclusion of anout 10 months.

Lyanna was betrothed to Robert, but Robert wasn't in Storm's End, he was at the Eyrie, with Ned and Jon Arryn. There was no reason for Lyanna to have been at Storm's End.

I considered the fact that she could have been on her way to Storms End, but then Robert logically would have left before, to prepare everything for her arrival. Seeing as how he is still in the Eyrie about three months later, it doesn't seem to have been the case.

[MtnLion]

I'm not sure if GRRM is aware of these figures though, or has even done the calculations.

There be holes in the space time continuum in Westeros, it is known. GRRM has addressed these things from time to time. ;)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Your rate of travel seems high.

Assume everyone is traveling by horse. No wagons or any other cart. I'm getting something like 40 miles per day, tops.

Here's a reference:

- Source

I would probably say 40 mph is probably a safe top speed, assuming no armour and being prepared to stop at an inn or similar place to reprovision and rest.

Once you'd add in armour and extra provisions (both of which would be needed in war-ravaged regions), plus having to find a place to camp each night, I'd expect you could say half that speed would be more obtainable. Maybe up to 30 miles a day, but you'd be pushing it to beyond that.

I'm not sure if GRRM is aware of these figures though, or has even done the calculations.

No, GRRM probably hasn't done the calculations, But his editors will have tried to see if it was possible at the very least. I see I haven't linked my source for the travel rates, so I'll do it here for now. It chose the highest of them, since there was panick, and everyone would want to arrive as soon as possible.

Not everyone was carrying armour, of course. Brandon had no reason to carry it with him, not did any of his companions. They were going to a wedding, not a war. Rickard did have his present, and the higher lords he might have taken would have done the same. Yet most of his 200 men wouldn't have.

[Alia of the knife]

We have no idea where Lyanna was when she was taken. It seems very likely that she was in Winterfell after Harrenhal's Tourney, for the length of the winter which followed. After the winter the betrothal of Brandon and Catelyn is announced in Riverrun and Littlefinger challenges. Brandon travels to Riverrun to answer the challenge, and leaves after severely wounding Littlefinger, promising Catelyn that he would return shortly from an errand. He is returning with Winterfell escorts, more than a fortnight after the duel, when he receives word that has him dash off to King's Landing.

Logically, Lyanna has no ties to Harrenhal. She is, however, betrothed to Robert Baratheon. It is likely that she travels to Storm's End, after the winter. That travel would take her through King's Landing. Is it possible that the word that Brandon receives is that Lyanna has not traveled from King's Landing to Storm's End at the expected time? Suffice it to say that Brandon likely receives word about Lyanna that has him storm into King's Landing demanding that Rhaegar come face him.

Further down the line, when Ned, Robert, and Jon decide to rebel, they must fight some battles in the Vale with Loyalists that do not want to join the rebellion. Ned and Robert would face the same problems when they reach their homes. Ned arrives later, after Robert has fought a few battles, and interestingly Hoster Tully participates in the Battle of the Bells, while we are told that the reason that he joined the rebels is because of the wedding of Jon Arryn and Ned Stark to his girls takes place afterwards. It is important to note that the length of the siege of Storm's End is our measuring stick, at nearly a year, but Robert and his army had already left when the siege was laid. So, the length of the rebellion could easily be more than a year, but not too much.

Is not Catlyn related to the Whents? If so they may invite Lyanna to stay since their kinswoman is marrying the Stark heir and will be Lyannas good sister.

[MtnLion]

GRRM himself has said that the rebellion lasted close to a year. Taking his quote about Aegon's age upon death in account, I reached the conclusion of anout 10 months.

Lyanna was betrothed to Robert, but Robert wasn't in Storm's End, he was at the Eyrie, with Ned and Jon Arryn. There was no reason for Lyanna to have been at Storm's End.

I considered the fact that she could have been on her way to Storms End, but then Robert logically would have left before, to prepare everything for her arrival. Seeing as how he is still in the Eyrie about three months later, it doesn't seem to have been the case.

Or, that after things went south with the betrothal, Robert traveled to the Eyrie to seek the advice of his friend Ned, and mentor Jon? That Lyanna disappeared in King's Landing makes the most sense based upon Brandon's actions, but as I said, there is no reason for her to be at Harrenhal. She is at Winterfell when she talks with Ned, and it is supported that they returned from Harrenhal to Winterfel.

[Alia of the knife]

On Aegon, it was noted that on the night of his conception, Rhaegar saw a comet over KL.

Do we know when the comet sighting took place?

[MtnLion]

On Aegon, it was noted that on the night of his conception, Rhaegar sawa comet over KL.

Do we know when the comet sighting took place?

As frustrating a clue as that has been, no.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Is not Catlyn related to the Whents? If so they may invite Lyanna to stay since their kinswoman is marrying the Stark heir and will be Lyannas good sister.

Catelyn's mother was Marisa Whent

Or, that after things went south with the betrothal, Robert traveled to the Eyrie to seek the advice of his friend Ned, and mentor Jon? That Lyanna disappeared in King's Landing makes the most sense based upon Brandon's actions, but as I said, there is no reason for her to be at Harrenhal. She is at Winterfell when she talks with Ned, and it is supported that they returned from Harrenhal to Winterfel.

There is absolutely no reason stated in the books for her being at Harrenhal. As I stated in the OP, I placed her at Harrenhal because her location is unknown. Harrenhal is in the middle of Westeros, which seems rather fair to me. Had she been at Winterfell, Rickard would have noticed her missing first, and he would have acted before Brandon could have.

On Aegon, it was noted that on the night of his conception, Rhaegar saw a comet over KL.

Do we know when the comet sighting took place?

No, the comet sighting hasn't been placed in time. But if it was indeed the night of Aegon's conception, and with Aegon having been between 12 and 14 months when he died, the comet must have appeared ±21 months before the Sack. Rhaegar can't have been far off. Even he could have counted to 9.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Further down the line, when Ned, Robert, and Jon decide to rebel, they must fight some battles in the Vale with Loyalists that do not want to join the rebellion. Ned and Robert would face the same problems when they reach their homes. Ned arrives later, after Robert has fought a few battles, and interestingly Hoster Tully participates in the Battle of the Bells, while we are told that the reason that he joined the rebels is because of the wedding of Jon Arryn and Ned Stark to his girls takes place afterwards. It is important to note that the length of the siege of Storm's End is our measuring stick, at nearly a year, but Robert and his army had already left when the siege was laid. So, the length of the rebellion could easily be more than a year, but not too much.

Btw, where did you find that Ned and Jon would marry Cat and Lysa after the Battle of the Bells, and not did so before? I've been looking for a source about that.

[MtnLion]

Btw, where did you find that Ned and Jon would marry Cat and Lysa after the Battle of the Bells, and not did so before? I've been looking for a source about that.

Jon Arryn's heir dies at the Battle of the Bells, making it part of the negotiations with Hoster that Lysa be fertile. However, it is very interesting that Hoster would take part in the Battle of the Bells before the wedding. I suspect that GRRM will announce that someone misremembered something, if he is ever pinned down on that question. ;)

Since Lyanna would tilt at rings, against Rickard's wishes, she is likely to ride alone. When she was taken, the idea that she was taken at sword point suggests that she was traveling with a guard or company. And, as I suggested, it is easy and understandable for Robert to travel from Storm's End to the Eyrie after Lyanna is taken. Robert is apparently not as foolish as Brandon.

[Alia of the knife]

Catelyn's mother was Marisa Whent

There is absolutely no reason stated in the books for her being at Harrenhal. As I stated in the OP, I placed her at Harrenhal because her location is unknown. Harrenhal is in the middle of Westeros, which seems rather fair to me. Had she been at Winterfell, Rickard would have noticed her missing first, and he would have acted before Brandon could have.

No, the comet sighting hasn't been placed in time. But if it was indeed the night of Aegon's conception, and with Aegon having been between 12 and 14 months when he died, the comet must have appeared ±21 months before the Sack. Rhaegar can't have been far off. Even he could have counted to 9.

Thanks!