Aerys spurned Cersei... because of Tyrion?

[mambru]

I don't think there is anything wrong with the Martells genetically.

I doubt Westeros has any deep knowledge of what illnesses are genetic and what aren't. Also, even if Elia's delicate health wasn't inherited, her health problems would make pregnancy a dicier proposition - which is a drawback if you want to select a good brood mare.

IMO, Aerys turned Tywin down out of suspicion and spite...and he underlined the spite part when he turned down Cersei's hand for Rhaegar while calling Tywin a "servant." Burn.

[Fire Eater]

Yes, almost. And this quote from 2002 points at Ned not being the father of Jon, but not necessarily at Tywin being Tyrion's father. The main difference being that Ned knew he was not the father, whereas Tywin did not and therefore always kept his 'father' status. Nevertheless, I fully accept this is quite a stretch and that almost (and Gemma's statement) is indeed a strong clue for my crackpotry to be, well, just crackpotry after all ;) .

The point rests that there is no evidence to suggest Tywin is not Tyrion's father. I don't see how it would add to the story, and again, it would only take away the momentum of the reveal of Jon's Targaryen heritage.

[Annara Snow]

Probably fact, but stated by one character only (Gemma IIRC, or was it Varys?). Anyway, this quasi-fact can feed both theories...

Barristan.

I don't think we're meant to see him as a gossip-monger, or that he would make such stuff up when talking to Dany about her father.

[bent branch]

I know this will be an unpopular answer, but I think Aerys' rejection of Cersei as an appropriate wife for Rhaegar isn't as outrageous as it appears. I'll use an example of what I mean. Say you have a guy named George who owns a factory and has a manager for that factory named John. George is an interested owner who sets policy for the factory, such as when equipment needs replacing, making sure the financing of the company is solid so that there won't be spot shortages of needed materials, arranging contracts with other businesses to keep the factory working at full capacity, etc. John on the other hand is in charge of day to day operations. He makes sure the bills are paid and there are sufficient employees to fulfill the contracts that George brings in. John is great in his job and George appreciates him for all his good work.

However, John becomes convinced that it is only his work that keeps the factory running and not George's policies. After a time John tells George that he should be an equal partner in the business. It would not be inappropriate at this point for George to remind John that he is an employee and that he has been properly remunerated for his services.

Ah, but it was Tywin that really ran the country! At least this is what Tywin would have everyone believe. I am not so sure. Barristan Selmy seems to think that everything was all right in Aerys' reign until Duskendale. This makes me suspect that Aerys was not a disinterested monarch like Robert. Since Robert is the only monarch we have seen so far, we have a tendency to believe that the relationship between the king and his hand is always like it was between Robert and his hands. I am waiting for it to be revealed that pre-Duskendale Aerys really wasn't that bad of king.

[Jô Maltese]

The point rests that there is no evidence to suggest Tywin is not Tyrion's father. I don't see how it would add to the story, and again, it would only take away the momentum of the reveal of Jon's Targaryen heritage.

I kind of agree with you, but why so many textual clues linking Tyrion with dragons then? I think it is fair to assess he is in line to become one of the dragon riders, and everything (except a magic horn maybe) points at the need to have Targaryen blood in order to achieve this. I read somewhere in a thread that his grandmother was a Targ... Do we know that? There is also the brotherhood feelings early in AGoT between Tyrion and Jon and the fact that they are the only characters, in addition to dragons, often described as casting large shadows.

Last, about the momentum of the reveal of Jon's heritage, I sometimes think that the R+L=J could be another red herring (first one being Dany's arc): after all, almost all the readers have pieced the clues together and maybe this was exactly what GRRM wanted? Or maybe this means that many in Westeros have also guessed who Jon really was? And if Dany and Jon are red herrings, who is left amongst the dominant POVs? Tyrion.

[Jô Maltese]

Barristan.

I don't think we're meant to see him as a gossip-monger, or that he would make such stuff up when talking to Dany about her father.

No he is not a gossip-monger or a lier. But he seems to have poor political and psychological judgement, so I would not trust his assertions in these domains.

[Faydra]

I know this will be an unpopular answer, but I think Aerys' rejection of Cersei as an appropriate wife for Rhaegar isn't as outrageous as it appears. I'll use an example of what I mean. Say you have a guy named George who owns a factory and has a manager for that factory named John. George is an interested owner who sets policy for the factory, such as when equipment needs replacing, making sure the financing of the company is solid so that there won't be spot shortages of needed materials, arranging contracts with other businesses to keep the factory working at full capacity, etc. John on the other hand is in charge of day to day operations. He makes sure the bills are paid and there are sufficient employees to fulfill the contracts that George brings in. John is great in his job and George appreciates him for all his good work.

However, John becomes convinced that it is only his work that keeps the factory running and not George's policies. After a time John tells George that he should be an equal partner in the business. It would not be inappropriate at this point for George to remind John that he is an employee and that he has been properly remunerated for his services.

Ah, but it was Tywin that really ran the country! At least this is what Tywin would have everyone believe. I am not so sure. Barristan Selmy seems to think that everything was all right in Aerys' reign until Duskendale. This makes me suspect that Aerys was not a disinterested monarch like Robert. Since Robert is the only monarch we have seen so far, we have a tendency to believe that the relationship between the king and his hand is always like it was between Robert and his hands. I am waiting for it to be revealed that pre-Duskendale Aerys really wasn't that bad of king.

I agree. Too many people forget that Tywin is also a miserable villain and they give him credit for anything good that happened in Aerys' reign.