Ollena's unnammed Targaryen?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

My personal preference is still Aerion's young son. He would have been born shortly before Maekar's death in 233 AC, which would put him much close to Olenna Redwyne age-wise, than Egg's children. Egg's eldest child - Duncan or a daughter - may have been born in the early 220s, perhaps even in the late 210s (depending when Egg married). My personal guess is that he married sooner rather than later because he is already betrothed to his sister Daella.

Why is anyone going to be making marriage pacts with a kid who is by this time a political dead end? Who's speaking for him, who's arranging these things on his behalf?

And I think it actually makes sense for Duncan to be quite a bit older than Olenna: It could have been while he was waiting for her to flower that he fell in love with Jenny. And it's not like we don't have countless examples of couples marrying with pretty steep age differences.

[Bori]

I think that's exactly what it is. What's the Redwyne sigil? Grapes. As in, sour grapes.

It also easily explains why the Queen of Thorns nickname is actually an insult, or at least explains why she hates it. If she had been pledged to Duncan, she'd've been queen of Westeros. Instead he goes for Jenny of Oldstones and she's stuck marrying a Tyrell; she's not the queen of Westeros, but the Queen of (Rose) Thorns instead. It also explains her motivation for making Margaery queen, helping her granddaughter achieve what she couldn't, and can also explain why Margaery's marriages all occur at a pretty brisk pace, i.e. it could have been thanks to a long engagement that Olenna lost out on Duncan.

So while either Duncan or the unnamed third son are both the major contenders, I think Duncan makes the most sense.

It sounds quite convincing, so I go with this assumption. Aegon V's three sons all broke their previous betrothals to marry for love, and this "made Aegon bitter enemies instead of fast friends" and "led to treason and turmoil that ended in Summerhall." Which made house Redwyne a "bitter enemy" to the Targaryens at that time (even though later in RR they stayed loyal to them), and they may have some role in what happenned in Summarhall?

[Lord Varys]

I could easily see Olenna being betrothed to a younger son of King Aegon V, but I'd be very surprised if a Redwyne girl was chosen as next queen of the Seven Kingdoms.

The Redwynes are old and all, but even if Egg thought he needed their support and navy against another Blackfyre invasion, cementing it with a marriage to his heir would be a stretch. I could see Maekar arranging such a match while Daeron and Aerion were still alive, but this would not fit age-wise.

I'd also daresay that Duncan, Jaehaerys, and the Mystery Prince were betrothed at an early age, and broke those betrothal as soon as their realized that they were deeply in love. They may not have married their women they fell in love with at once, but I'd be very surprised if the weddings were postponed indefinitely while the princes entertained their mistresses. The whole point in Egg allowing his children to marry for love would be to spare anyone involved (especially the women) the trouble/embarrassment of an ongoing public affair.

But it would be still easily possible that Olenna was betrothed to either Jaehaerys or the Mystery Prince.

The status of Aerion's son should not be discounted easily, I think. We don't know what his role was during Egg's reign. It's easily imaginable that Egg raised him as foster son.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Egg was born about 299 AC.

We know his second son Jaehaerys was 39 when he died in 262 AC, so he was born in 223, +/- a year.

That means Duncan the Small was probably born between 217 AC and 221 AC. (We don't know where Rhaelle fits into the birth order, and births are usually about 2 years apart at a minimum, with some exceptions.)

Egg ascended the throne in 233 AC. That means that Duncan probably wasn't married yet (aged 12-16), and his availability might have played a role in the behind-the scenes negotiations of the Great Council that placed Egg on the throne. Rhaelle's betrothal to a Baratheon might also have played a part. A Redwyne betrothal for Duncan would make sense in that context. Egg needed all the support he could get, since Aerion's son had the better claim. A bond with a major house from the Reach would be invaluable.

We must take into account, also, Barristan Selmy's info.

The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses.

Two possible interpretations here - long term and short term.

Long term would be that Duncan's choice eventually led to Aerys II, thus causing Robert's Rebellion. No help in this thread.

Short term - Duncan's choice either led the family of his jilted bride-to-be to revolt, or further politics concerning Jaehaerys' succession led to bloodshed in some way. If Duncan was betrothed to Olenna, could either of these have occured? We don't know for sure, but alienating the Reach would likely have caused problems for Egg, especially when he couldn't smooth over the problem by utilizing his other two sons.

Aerion's son was an infant in 233. He had a better claim to the throne than Egg. A betrothal to him would be almost the same as a Formal Declaration of Intent to Revolt. If that kid was allowed to live by the forces that put Egg on the throne, he at least could not be allowed to breed, right?

I evaluate the Duncan-Olenna betrothal as being the likely one. I doubt House Redwyne would bother with Eggsthirdson; third sons aren't much of a prize.

[Lord Varys]

Things are a little more convoluted, I'd think. We don't know how many children Egg, we only know that he had three sons, and at least one daughter. If he had more than one daughter, it's easily imaginable that it goes like that: Duncan, Rhaelle, second daughter, third daughter, Jaehaerys, Mystery Prince. Or first daughter, Duncan, Rhaelle, Jaehaerys, Mystery Prince, third daughter.

We cannot really pinpoint the approximate birth of Prince Duncan by Jaehaerys' age alone. And even if we could, it would not be unlikely if Maekar had arranged all the betrothals of his grandchildren. Jaehaerys would have been about ten at the time of Maekar's death, and Duncan even older. That's certainly old enough to arrange betrothals, especially since Maekar's older sons (Daeron & Aerion) failed to produce any heirs.

The assumption that Egg needed 'all the support he could get' during the Great Council is entirely conjecture, since it's very likely that the whole Great Council was convened by Prince Aegon himself (the only grown-up male member of House Targaryen left beside Maester Aemon) to settle the succession in a way that would not involve him. Aemon repeatedly compares Jon Snow with Egg in ADwD, and this strongly suggests that Egg was as eager to become king as Jon was eager to become Lord Commander. Thus I'd be very surprised if a betrothal between Olenna and any of Egg's sons was the price for the support of the Reach during the Great Council.

The App also indicates that a lot of the troubles of Egg's reign came because he remained a champion of the smallfolk even after he had ascended to the Iron Throne. Taking a stand against his own lords and bannermen again and again without dragons to support him should have caused a lot of trouble in itself.

[Moondancer]

Oh I'm a big fan of Bloodraven, he definitely gets a bad rap with the smallfolk. We don't know about his relationship with Rhaegal, it's possible Rhaegal really liked him and trusted his judgement. We also don't know just how unstable Rhaegal was. I assume Bloodraven felt he could control him, and that there was nobody else at court he had to worry about grabbing power. This doesn't necessarily make Bloodraven evil. Maybe he thought he could rule the realm (through Rhaegal) better than prickly Maekar could.

Once he was detained Bloodraven was not sent to The Wall until Egg took the throne. I suspect the reason Maekar didn't have him executed is to avoid further accusations of kinslaying. I do not think he would have been arrested just to take the blame for some rough years where he was hand. Fired sure, exiled maybe.

How I understood the scene from TMK -

BR is simplly defending Rhaegel's birth right. Rumoured to be feeble witted but still with a birth right.

If your argument is based on the idea that someone is unfit to rule because of their condition, you also open the door for the argument that someone is more fit to rule, by their better constitution or nature. Ha, Daemon is better! Let's go with him! No bookish kings allowed! I think BR is very much aware of this.

The the primogeniture law, that favours male heirs over females heir, has its flaws (like with Rhaegel) and still offers conditions that bring about undisputed reign and peace.

If you* set about to resolve the issue of clearly ill ruler, and convene Small Council, you can still have good will and results and the game of thrones, if only in one room, it's the lesser evil. But, if highlords and smallfolk alike are discussing it, being very sangfroid about it, then you have a potential Rebellion at hands and even worse - you have a precedent for the posterity. Each time when there was a problem with the hereditary law, there was a serious crisis.

Mad King was very unstable. He still ruled. Aemon had the birth right and he knew that same right can cause Aegon V problems, so he went to Wall. He didn't simply say 'nah, the Crown is yours'. By adhering to the law, you protect the realm from the game. You protect yourself from the game.

Great conclusion there, "brave and stupid kings". Stupid kings dance how you like, brave kings die how you like. You don't like the King? Let's have another one! :)

I think BR is a righteous person. And if the brother he loved was indeed Daemon, the decisions he made in relation to his duty make him even more formidable.

*but who? Who has more authority than the King? The Hand of the previous king? The Lords who grant the power to the King? The royal family? Problems abound.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Egg was born about 299 AC.

We know his second son Jaehaerys was 39 when he died in 262 AC, so he was born in 223, +/- a year.

That means Duncan the Small was probably born between 217 AC and 221 AC. (We don't know where Rhaelle fits into the birth order, and births are usually about 2 years apart at a minimum, with some exceptions.)

Egg ascended the throne in 233 AC. That means that Duncan probably wasn't married yet (aged 12-16), and his availability might have played a role in the behind-the scenes negotiations of the Great Council that placed Egg on the throne. Rhaelle's betrothal to a Baratheon might also have played a part. A Redwyne betrothal for Duncan would make sense in that context. Egg needed all the support he could get, since Aerion's son had the better claim. A bond with a major house from the Reach would be invaluable.

We must take into account, also, Barristan Selmy's info.

Two possible interpretations here - long term and short term.

Long term would be that Duncan's choice eventually led to Aerys II, thus causing Robert's Rebellion. No help in this thread.

Short term - Duncan's choice either led the family of his jilted bride-to-be to revolt, or further politics concerning Jaehaerys' succession led to bloodshed in some way. If Duncan was betrothed to Olenna, could either of these have occured? We don't know for sure, but alienating the Reach would likely have caused problems for Egg, especially when he couldn't smooth over the problem by utilizing his other two sons.

Aerion's son was an infant in 233. He had a better claim to the throne than Egg. A betrothal to him would be almost the same as a Formal Declaration of Intent to Revolt. If that kid was allowed to live by the forces that put Egg on the throne, he at least could not be allowed to breed, right?

I evaluate the Duncan-Olenna betrothal as being the likely one. I doubt House Redwyne would bother with Eggsthirdson; third sons aren't much of a prize.

You read it how I did.

I think the key for the Redwyne alliance is their navy. We know that eventually, the last Blackfyres (ahem) were taken out in the War of the Ninepenny Kings in the Stepstones. It's possible that this conflict had been brewing for a long time and that Aegon wanted to secure additional naval forces. If Duncan marrying Jenny spoiled that alliance, then it could have caused additional bloodshed in that war, if the naval superiority wasn't up to snuff. I also think that Duncan wouldn't have had to set aside his crown if he had just married for love; that implies that he was being punished for some transgression. Bailing out of a marriage pact and costing your dad a navy is a pretty big transgression. But cutting the transgressor out of the succession to atone is a pretty clear message to send, which in turn explains the Redwynes's eventual continued support; they got satisfaction. It also somewhat parallels Robb's case, where a marriage pact that wasn't fulfilled right away got shirked and people paid a price for it.

And I definitely agree that it being Aerion's son makes very little sense. I can actually see it maybe being the third son, because the Redwynes aren't a paramount house (although, like the Hightowers, they seem to have outsized influence). But the Aerion's son argument just doesn't fit for me, because it is in no one's interest at that point for that bloodline to continue or for that kid to enter into a marriage pact. Speaking of the Hightowers, we already know that Viserys I married Alicent. I think that if the Hightowers were good enough to marry a sitting king, the Redwynes were good enough, with their wealth and navy, to marry a Prince of Dragonstone.

[TheHouseHB]

Aemon Targaryen? Perhaps her rejecting him was one of the many reasons that he chose the Watch?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Aemon Targaryen? Perhaps her rejecting him was one of the many reasons that he chose the Watch?

I don't see how. He's like 30-40 years older than she is and was almost certainly already a maester long before she was even born.

[Ygrain]

I think the key for the Redwyne alliance is their navy. We know that eventually, the last Blackfyres (ahem) were taken out in the War of the Ninepenny Kings in the Stepstones. It's possible that this conflict had been brewing for a long time and that Aegon wanted to secure additional naval forces. If Duncan marrying Jenny spoiled that alliance, then it could have caused additional bloodshed in that war, if the naval superiority wasn't up to snuff. I also think that Duncan wouldn't have had to set aside his crown if he had just married for love; that implies that he was being punished for some transgression. Bailing out of a marriage pact and costing your dad a navy is a pretty big transgression. But cutting the transgressor out of the succession to atone is a pretty clear message to send, which in turn explains the Redwynes's eventual continued support; they got satisfaction. It also somewhat parallels Robb's case, where a marriage pact that wasn't fulfilled right away got shirked and people paid a price for it.

More likely, his marriage was considered morganatic and Jenny unacceptable as a queen. Even if she was related to House Mudd, that was but a name without any more power to it. - The Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand also married for love and his wife, although of a noble family, was inelligible for an empress and he gave up the crown for her, as well.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

More likely, his marriage was considered morganatic and Jenny unacceptable as a queen. Even if she was related to House Mudd, that was but a name without any more power to it. - The Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand also married for love and his wife, although of a noble family, was inelligible for an empress and he gave up the crown for her, as well.

That's also possible. And the reasons don't have to be mutually exclusive.

[Ygrain]

That's also possible. And the reasons don't have to be mutually exclusive.

Yeah but I think that Jenny's origin would be the main reason. Lords of thousands years old bloodlines, ruled by the son of a commoner? An outrage, and one that the kingdom with Blackfyre rebellions on hands couldn't afford.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Yeah but I think that Jenny's origin would be the main reason. Lords of thousands years old bloodlines, ruled by the son of a commoner? An outrage, and one that the kingdom with Blackfyre rebellions on hands couldn't afford.

Fair enough, I guess. I still think Duncan was Olenna's Targaryen.

[Lord Varys]

It seems pretty clear that Viserys I married Alicent for love (at least on his part). The Arryn wife from his arranged marriage was dead, and as king and head of House Targaryen he was free to marry whoever he wanted to marry. Especially during a time when the Targaryens still had dragons. But even then, a Hightower bride was essentially of royal blood (as well as a Lannister, Arryn, or Stark bride), since the Hightowers originally ruled the lands around Oldtown as kings. And they were no petty kings, like the Darklyns, it seems.

The Redwynes are just a wealthy house with a big navy. That's not the same.

I do not doubt that the Targaryen-Redwyne match was brokered to bind the Arbor strong(er) to the Iron Throne, I merely doubt that Prince Duncan was the Targaryen chosen for this match. The App gives a little bit of insight into Egg's reign, and a lot of problems come from the fact that he continues to champion the cause of the smallfolk as king. That may indicate that the behavior of his sons only made things worse, but did not cause all that much trouble in itself. And it makes it possible, likely even, that Egg wanted to hatch Targaryen dragon eggs to have the necessary power to change the social order of Westeros - breaking the political power of the nobility and/or creating a stronger central government which can ensure justice for everyone directly, not through individual lords as supreme judges of their domains.

Duncan's broken betrothal would cause maximal damage, I think, if his betrothed was no Westerosi noble girl, but one of the Blackfyre granddaughters of Daemon I. Egg's experience with Ser Eustace and Daemon II should have motivated him to try to reunite the two branches of the dragon tree. And spurning a Blackfyre princess for a commoner would have indeed be a much more severe humiliation in the eyes of many of the lords of Westeros as well as those of the members of House Blackfyre and their loyalists. I expect that the deaths of Bittersteel and Maekar, as well as the fall of Bloodraven released a lot of steam out of the simmering conflict between Blackfyres and Targaryens, but such a decision by Prince Duncan, say, in the late 230s, could have caused another massive Blackfyre rebellion.

If Olenna was betrothed to a son of Egg, then Jaehaerys or the Mystery Prince would be much better candidates, but I certainly can see Aerion's son also be 'Targaryen enough' to bind the Arbor closer to the Iron Throne. Especially if Egg raised him as his foster son. Especially if Olenna was the only child of a Lord Redwyne, their children would later have ruled the Arbor as the members of the 'House Targaryen of the Arbor'. It's possible that Olenna was her father's heir, and gave up her claim to the Arbor in favor of an uncle or cousin when she was married to the heir/Lord of Highgarden. Olenna's leadership abilities certainly suggest that she may have been groomed to rule.

[Moondancer]

I think given the amount of her bitterness, her nickname and damage produced by the rejection, I think that she was spurned by the heir apparent, and not necessarily Duncan.

If the "mad" Duncan chose a commoner above her and his duty to the realm, and eventually abdicated, Aegon could easily placate the Redwynes by having Jaeherys marry Olenna - of course, the prince could have been already married. I suppose we can't timeline those events? For example, Jaeherys' age in relation to Duncan?

The thing that bugs me more is why, seemingly, there's no common knowledge about the events? Summerhall wasn't that long ago, and if there was treason afoot, it seems that there were no punishment. Redwynes still stand. As well as the high Lords, and their anger and feeling of shame know no bounds. Why Summerhall doesn't exist in the oral history? As if the entire event was a private show.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

If the "mad" Duncan chose a commoner above her and his duty to the realm, and eventually abdicated, Aegon could easily placate the Redwynes by having Jaeherys marry Olenna - of course, the prince could have been already married. I suppose we can't timeline those events? For example, Jaeherys' age in relation to Duncan?

Given how young the Targs seem to marry in general, I'm inclined to think this is what it was. But as you said, we don't have the timeline.

Even though I do think it was Duncan and will continue to do so until it's confirmed one way or the other, I can widen the field to one of Aegon V's sons. The only candidate who just makes zero dynastic and political sense to me is Aerion's son.

[Lord Varys]

As to the time line:

The War of the Ninepenny Kings took place during the reign of Jaehaerys II (i.e. sometime in 259-262). I'd be very surprised if any troubles between Houses Targaryen and Redwyne two decades ago played any role whatsoever in that war. Especially since the War of the Ninepenny Kings seems to have been a conflict where House Targaryen and a unified Westeros brought the war to Maelys Blackfyre and his allies in the Band of Nine long before they even reached the mainland of Westeros. This does not really indicate that the Blackfyres had any loyalists among the Lords of Westeros at this point, at least not any Blackfyre loyalists who were willing to show their true colors.

Considering that Aerys was born 243, and there are people speculating that Rhaella may have been older than Aerys, I'd assume that Jaehaerys married in 240-241. The SSM suggesting that Jaehaerys was 39 at the time of his death, goes back to 2001, which does not necessarily make it canon (much stuff was changed since back then). But even if Jaehaerys was born in 223 AC, my personal guess is that Egg must have married before the year 221, since Maekar most certainly would not have allowed him and/or would have severely punished him if he defied his royal command to marry his sister Daella.

Aerys I, on the other hand, does not seem to have consummated his marriage to his sister-wife Aelinor. It's easily imaginable that Egg's uncle gave him his royal permission to follow his heart. Or he might have at least been opposed enough to the Targaryen incest-marriage thing to formally dissolve Egg's betrothal. Aerys was a very learned man, and I guess that had more to do with his unconsummated incest-marriage than his sexual preferences.

But anyway, I don't see Egg being unwed in 221 AC. And depending on the family of Egg's bride, it's also very likely that Egg had already children when Maekar ascended to the Iron Throne. If Maekar was very pissed about his son's choice, he may have tried to annul or dissolve the marriage if Egg had not yet children of his own. Thus I think he most certainly had one or even two children in 221, with Duncan most likely being one of it. Again, we don't know the number of his daughters yet.