Heresy 113

[Yield.]

No, not necessarily, but still, it's not just small paul, it's a bunch of wights. So for this all to jibe, you've got a rouge band of wights that neither bloodraven nor the WWs are influencing. I'm not saying it's not possible, just that it keeps getting more and more complicated.

There is another explanation and it is the one Wolfmaid and I are saying. The Cold is what's controlling them not the Others/WWs or Bloodraven. All the wights are meandering south towards the Wall and specifically at the NW whenever they are North of the Wall. The evidence is that north of the Fist of the FM was an army of 100,000 wildling that the wights had to pass in order to get to the Fist. There is no reported attack of the wights on said wildlings, which if it were heat signatures or the stink of life (we know one woman at the very least arrived months later with a dead baby in tow) then why circumvent such a choice offering? Plus the wildling are then herded south when they scatter. Seems to be the wights are using the bands of lost wildlings to form another attack on the Wall. Take it or die trying either way it suits the wights.

Its actually not complicated at all. They have served their purpose and are now just roaming aimlessly, attracted to heat signatures or as Gilly put it the stink of life. Its because they weren't being controlled that Coldhands needed to intervene

Again this points to the WWs not using them as soldiers. Once a mission is completed then they should return to home base (wherever or whatever that maybe) so as to have the masses of wights ready at hand for whatever they are to do next. Scattered troops are not much help if you're mounting an attack. And as everyone but we few believe it's the WWs that are leading them then that means the WWs themselves are scattered along with the troops. How then do they communicate battle plans to one another? We haven't seen any evidence of telecommunication between them since they talk in that strange language and laugh and jibe with each other while stabbing Waymar Royce.

[Urrax2]

The app specifically lists Rhaegar's place of birth as Summerhall.

Also, the app text Tyryan pasted seems pretty direct on this point:

Born on the very day of King Aegon V's death, in the conflagration that destroyed Summerhall

Does the "in" phrase modify "born" or does it modify "death"?

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Ya, My initial calculation was more of a guess really. I wasn't entirely sure how to calculate the odds included maternal mortality so I just lumped it into the calculation afterward. I have since written some code that simulates child birth, death of the mother, and sex of the children. Assuming 50/50 male/female rates, 15% maternal mortality, and 30% child mortality, Craster would have needed to have ~85 children to have 19 living wives, which wasn't too far off my original guess of 68.

Know to get back to the relevant point. Craster did not have 100 sons. Craster had ~ 42 sons.....

These numbers assume none of the wives lived but ran away like Gilly did. But yes, unless there's something special about Craster that causes him to have a lot more sons than daughters, then I'd agree that the 100 number was an exaggeration.

[JNR]

I agree completely. The show ran into what seemed like trouble by having the NW have such low numbers making an attack on the mutineers necessary in order to preserve the secret from Mance. It served though as you say to show Jon off as someone the brothers will follow voluntarily.

Agreed, Jon is definitely being set up as future LC. So they're sticking to that aspect of the canon.

The whole business of attacking Craster's Keep also solves a problem created by the nonexistence of Coldhands... which is that Coldhands apparently took care of the mutineers in the books.

Does the "in" phrase modify "born" or does it modify "death"?

It modifies "born," since the Rhaegar entry in the app says

Place of birth: Summerhall

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

This is a very insightful point that never occurred to me.

As you say, the whole business on the show of having an altar surrounded by circular standing stones where transformation of a human baby takes place just reeks of a culture.

GRRM, of course, did not write either of these things into the canon, so you can see he's being consistent with his remark that he didn't know if they have a culture.

Yes - the comment ("I don't know if they have a culture.") is presented in the context of discussing what readers can expect in Winds of Winter. In other words - it's a statement about the books, not the show.

(At least, I assume that's the case. The interviewer's question is not actually quoted in the piece I found online: http://www.canada.com/entertainment/television/Interview+Author+George+Martin+eager+world+again+Game+Thrones/6349053/story.html )

[Black Crow]

As you say, the whole business on the show of having an altar surrounded by circular standing stones where transformation of a human baby takes place just reeks of a culture.

True, but that comes back to what ATS and I are arguing that that don't have a distinct culture.

[Black Crow]

I agree completely. The show ran into what seemed like trouble by having the NW have such low numbers making an attack on the mutineers necessary in order to preserve the secret from Mance. It served though as you say to show Jon off as someone the brothers will follow voluntarily.

Now how 100 men are supposed to keep a large group of wildling from easily over running an unfortified southern attack of Castle Black while at the same time 100,000 are attacking from the north is another story. Even if they stick to the book and have Stannis arrive in the nick of time to destroy the northern attack, the southern attack seems very likely to success regardless of their northern front is attacked or not. Or does the show not stick to the books on the no fortifications bit?

Again I think that this is a bit of clever adaptation. One of the pre-show trailers did include a sequence of armoured horsemen charging through the snowy trees, so yes we're going to get Stannis. There are obviously, as Mance himself discovered, practical difficulties in assaulting a 700 high foot wall, so I'm guessing that we're going to get both battles rolled into one: Mance doing shooty things on the north side while Tormund attacks from the south. Lots of manageable action in Castle Black itself, death of Ygritte etc. and then Stannis arriving...

[Urrax2]

Commercials on the show, sort of:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/business/media/advertisers-seek-a-second-screen-connection-with-viewers.html?ref=business&_r=0

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Again I think that this is a bit of clever adaptation. One of the pre-show trailers did include a sequence of armoured horsemen charging through the snowy trees, so yes we're going to get Stannis. There are obviously, as Mance himself discovered, practical difficulties in assaulting a 700 high foot wall, so I'm guessing that we're going to get both battles rolled into one: Mance doing shooty things on the north side while Tormund attacks from the south. Lots of manageable action in Castle Black itself, death of Ygritte etc. and then Stannis arriving...

I'm several episodes behind in show viewing - and sticking to the books for my "theorizing" anyway - but I wonder if Stannis arrives on the south side of the Wall for television. Sounds like the wildling force on the south side is larger than it was in the books, yes? And the idea that the northern hordes pose a real danger to the 700 foot wall could be a tough on-screen sell. (I thought it was sort of a tough sell in the books - but there was the whole "Joramun's Horn" conversation between Jon and Mance to make us wonder...)

[Melifeather]

They'll save them for later when Bran and co get the cave mouth and turn them into killer sheep, rather than a killer rabbit.

And the Monty Python note I was hoping

Jon would tell Karl 'It's just a flesh wound!'

Two scenes from my favorite Monty Python movie! Love it!

About the show:

Yeap, filler episode, boy they're stretching it :s And Jojen's hand... I also believe he was seeing his own end. Wich doesn't seem like being turned into a paste, btw.

P.S.: The main reason I don't really spend much time here aside from the episodes is because, with all due respect, you guys tend to run cirles and even "drama" and I just don't have the time nor the patience to go through all the comments, and even when we're inspired and so great work together, it just goes so freaking fast! But I do thank you for so much insight in ASoIaF.

I'm not quite sure if you hate this thread or love it?

I agree completely. The show ran into what seemed like trouble by having the NW have such low numbers making an attack on the mutineers necessary in order to preserve the secret from Mance. It served though as you say to show Jon off as someone the brothers will follow voluntarily.

Now how 100 men are supposed to keep a large group of wildling from easily over running an unfortified southern attack of Castle Black while at the same time 100,000 are attacking from the north is another story. Even if they stick to the book and have Stannis arrive in the nick of time to destroy the northern attack, the southern attack seems very likely to success regardless of their northern front is attacked or not. Or does the show not stick to the books on the no fortifications bit?

I keep getting the vibe from the show that Stannis isn't coming. At least he seems to have gotten distracted from leaving.

Having Jon offer to bring Craster's wives to the Wall shadows his plan to have the wildlings pass, but no one in the group seemed surprised or shocked at the idea of letting these women through the Wall.

There is another explanation and it is the one Wolfmaid and I are saying. The Cold is what's controlling them not the Others/WWs or Bloodraven. All the wights are meandering south towards the Wall and specifically at the NW whenever they are North of the Wall. The evidence is that north of the Fist of the FM was an army of 100,000 wildling that the wights had to pass in order to get to the Fist. There is no reported attack of the wights on said wildlings, which if it were heat signatures or the stink of life (we know one woman at the very least arrived months later with a dead baby in tow) then why circumvent such a choice offering? Plus the wildling are then herded south when they scatter. Seems to be the wights are using the bands of lost wildlings to form another attack on the Wall. Take it or die trying either way it suits the wights.

Again this points to the WWs not using them as soldiers. Once a mission is completed then they should return to home base (wherever or whatever that maybe) so as to have the masses of wights ready at hand for whatever they are to do next. Scattered troops are not much help if you're mounting an attack. And as everyone but we few believe it's the WWs that are leading them then that means the WWs themselves are scattered along with the troops. How then do they communicate battle plans to one another? We haven't seen any evidence of telecommunication between them since they talk in that strange language and laugh and jibe with each other while stabbing Waymar Royce.

You present an easy to understand argument, but my main hesitation is that making the cold an entity is like making it a god, but I guess the flames Melisandre peer into are like a god so it is plausible. Isn't there a line from GRRM that there won't be any divine intervention?

[Melifeather]

I'm several episodes behind in show viewing - and sticking to the books for my "theorizing" anyway - but I wonder if Stannis arrives on the south side of the Wall for television. Sounds like the wildling force on the south side is larger than it was in the books, yes? And the idea that the northern hordes pose a real danger to the 700 foot wall could be a tough on-screen sell. (I thought it was sort of a tough sell in the books - but there was the whole "Joramun's Horn" conversation between Jon and Mance to make us wonder...)

Mance has the larger force north of the Wall on the show too. The wildling force south does seem to be more dangerous since they've shown them raiding villages, which makes no sense to me because I thougth their attack was supposed to be a surprise.

[Phillip Frye]

I keep getting the vibe from the show that Stannis isn't coming. At least he seems to have gotten distracted from leaving.

Given the ability of several characters on the show, esp. Melisandre, to teleport about Westeros, I expect Stannis to leave Dragonstone in episode 9 and arrive in episode 10.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I don't want to bring up the show again but.....

Tonight's episode corrected most of the problems with the plot beyond the wall. Bran and co are back on their path north. Jon has ghost. Jon never found out that bran and co were at crasters. The guy from the dreadfort was KIA before successfully killing bran or even revealing himself as a bolton agent to jon. Indeed, jon was never even attacked by him. Show is about back on track......

EDIT: Craster's wives also explicitly stated that craster beat and 'did worse' to them. They then proceeded to burn down craster's keep.

I figured this would be the case. We're actually pretty close to back on track with the books, with even Sansa's plot and Brienne and Pod being pretty close to book plotline. The one glaring omission being Coldhands, but if he's missing, it tells me he wasn't very important to begin with, just some sort of servant/ally of BR's. And the last being Yara's excursion to the Dreadfort which appears to be coming this next episode.

[Urrax2]

Did anyone else find much of the dialogue on last night's episode to be remarkably flat and wooden? The price of getting so far away from GRRM's original I guess.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

...Isn't there a line from GRRM that there won't be any divine intervention?

An oft cited, but generally mis-construed comment by GRRM, I think. I see folks on these boards often refer to this statement to back up the argument that "there are no gods" in Planetos, or that the "gods" aren't actually real. But that's not at all what George says. As usual, he is much more nuanced and much less categorical in his response. Here is the Q&A:

------------

Q: "There are several competing religions in this series now. Should we be wondering if some are more true than others? In a world with magic, is religion just magic with an extra layer of mythos?"

A: "Well, the readers are certainly free to wonder about the validity of these religions, the truth of these religions, and the teachings of these religions. I'm a little leery of the word "true" — whether any of these religions are more true than others. I mean, look at the analogue of our real world. We have many religions too. Are some of them more true than others? I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do. We're not going to have one appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays. So the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out."

http://io9.com/5822939/george-rr-martin-explains-why-well-never-meet-any-gods-in-a-song-of-ice-and-fire

------------

I started to highlight portions of his response, then decided that would just be another way of cherry-picking comments from his full answer. But what stands out to me is his comment that "I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do." That qualifier is potentially significant, and hardly ever included in drive-by references to this interview (which was conducted at the time ADWD was released - so, five books in). Now, have any gods "already" shown up in Westeros? Sounds like Martin leaves that up to the reader. But of course, what does he mean by the word "gods?"

[Varamyra Stark]

The previews last night showed Stanislaus at the Iron Bank. I suppose he could teleport to the wall from there ;)

[Varamyra Stark]

Ugh. Stannis. Darn auto correct

[TheTowerOfJoy]

That was a confusing statement. Maybe since everyone thinks it's Monster, then everyone also thinks Craster is his father/grandfather. I'm reminded of an old song, "I'm my own grandpa".....

That was curious. They had already inserted this extra story about going to kill the mutineers and so maybe they needed firewood? I was disappointed that we didn't see Coldhands or Lady Stoneheart. We need some good monsters to ramp up the volume on the show. I thought for sure Coldhands would help Bran escape, but at least I can hold out hope for Podrick and Brienne to run into Lady Stoneheart in the next week or so.

Technically, apart from a few mentions, the Lady Stoneheart reveal doesn't really happen until the end of this season chronologically. Though we should start hearing about her some on Brienne and Pod's story line.

[Melifeather]

I figured this would be the case. We're actually pretty close to back on track with the books, with even Sansa's plot and Brienne and Pod being pretty close to book plotline. The one glaring omission being Coldhands, but if he's missing, it tells me he wasn't very important to begin with, just some sort of servant/ally of BR's. And the last being Yara's excursion to the Dreadfort which appears to be coming this next episode.

I'm confused with Yara fighting with Ramsay at the Dreadfort, since the book version keeps Reek with Ramsay through Dance. It's not until he escapes that Yara/Asha meets up with him. And what about the Kingmoot? Does she fail to over take the Dreadfort and then hear about her father's death? Or will she be captured by northmen?

An oft cited, but generally mis-construed comment by GRRM, I think. I see folks on these boards often refer to this statement to back up the argument that "there are no gods" in Planetos, or that the "gods" aren't actually real. But that's not at all what George says. As usual, he is much more nuanced and much less categorical in his response. Here is the Q&A:

------------

Q: "There are several competing religions in this series now. Should we be wondering if some are more true than others? In a world with magic, is religion just magic with an extra layer of mythos?"

A: "Well, the readers are certainly free to wonder about the validity of these religions, the truth of these religions, and the teachings of these religions. I'm a little leery of the word "true" — whether any of these religions are more true than others. I mean, look at the analogue of our real world. We have many religions too. Are some of them more true than others? I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do. We're not going to have one appearing, deus ex machina, to affect the outcomes of things, no matter how hard anyone prays. So the relation between the religions and the various magics that some people have here is something that the reader can try to puzzle out."

http://io9.com/5822939/george-rr-martin-explains-why-well-never-meet-any-gods-in-a-song-of-ice-and-fire

------------

I started to highlight portions of his response, then decided that would just be another way of cherry-picking comments from his full answer. But what stands out to me is his comment that "I don't think any gods are likely to be showing up in Westeros, any more than they already do." That qualifier is potentially significant, and hardly ever included in drive-by references to this interview (which was conducted at the time ADWD was released - so, five books in). Now, have any gods "already" shown up in Westeros? Sounds like Martin leaves that up to the reader. But of course, what does he mean by the word "gods?"

I'd have to say that the suggestion of ice and fire gods will be very subtle then. Melisandre interacts moreso with R'hllor, but we haven't seen anyone interact with He Who Shall Not Be Named.

Ugh. Stannis. Darn auto correct

I king of liked Stannislaus. He sounded very festive.

[JNR]

I figured this would be the case. We're actually pretty close to back on track with the books, with even Sansa's plot and Brienne and Pod being pretty close to book plotline. The one glaring omission being Coldhands, but if he's missing, it tells me he wasn't very important to begin with, just some sort of servant/ally of BR's.

Oh, I think there's still quite a bit of major divergence. For instance, only Bran, of all the Stark kids, appears to be a warg on the show.

I found it notable that Jon was within a hundred yards of Ghost for an extended period and had no sense of him whatever. Had to actually see Ghost to have a clue he was there. Utterly different from the books.

It'll be interesting seeing what they do with the Brienne plotline, which is already accelerated compared to SoS and pretty boring in FFC. And of course Theon's situation will be another yardstick.