Doran and Oberyn planned on poisoning Tywin

[Clariana]

Don't you think the Tyrells have a role in this too... After all QoT did poison Joff, perhaps there was some agreement the Tyrells off Joff... And Oberyn deals with Tywin. After all even if Joff is dead that helps the Tyrells advance their cause not a jot while Tywin lives and breathes.

I think the case for some sort of compact is pretty strong. Cui bono? Well Dorne gets its revenge and House Tyrell a shot at power... Dorne is likely content with this because it is not convinced that the Tyrells can actually hold the seven kingdoms together. In fact, it seems they can't because Kevan has to step up...

[A wilding]

@Awildling

"This makes any poisoning by Varys a backstop in case Tyrion fails to act as required." Really? How about his backstop in case Tyrion "fails to act" is idk shooting him with a crossbow like he did to his brother. Tywin dying by poison days after Tyrion fled would have put the suspicion/blame much moreso to the Dornish and Varys than it would Tyrion

Sure Varys might have chosen an alternative plan of sneaking into Tywin's bedchamber with a crossbow and shooting him (and Shae?). Though that feels a little risky to me.

The point of poisoning him instead though is that it sets things up for Tyrion. Tywin is stuck on the privy so Tyrion enters the bedchamber when only Shae is there, giving him the chance to confront her and then arm himself to go after his father.

More to the point, whatever Tyrion does or fails to do, Tywin is already going to die. Because if Tyrion mucks things up and the Hand's chambers are full of alerted guards, then it is suddenly not going to be easy to kill Tywin by other means, especially as Tywin predictably deduced, the instant that he saw Tyrion, that Varys had orchestrated his escape.

Incidentally Tywin dying of the poison "days after Tyrion fled" belongs to the Oberyn theory, which requires the poison to have been changed to not start taking effect for days - until the night before Tyrion's execution in fact. Varys can just administer the normal version of the poison, so Tywin will die within hours, at the time he wants him to.

Even in the scenario of Tyrion refusing to go up the the tower at all, his escape, along with Varys, on what was *obviously* the night Tywin was poisoned, is going to confuse the issue and stop everyone pointing at Dorne.And who knows but that Varys might have had some "evidence" ready to plant. Indeed, perhaps he might have been planning to nip up there with a crossbow himself if it came to it, after all!

[Ladywhiskers]

OMG.

So, the coin Cersei found in Tyrion's cell IS relevant and not just a random coin left there by some other prisoner before Tyrion.

What this means, is that crazy crackpot Cersei is right about everything after all. Tyrion killed his lover and Tywin, then went and sucked all the blackness of the world into his lungs and emerged from the ocean being every inch the monster Cersei has always believed him to be. He's bad now---couldn't be loved, wants to be feared now.

The Tyrells DID have a hand in killing Joffrey, and a hand in killing Tywin, and they ARE out to get Cersei. They may also be out to kill Tommen, as she fears. Tyrion certain is. Sansa IS guilty of Joffrey's murder, because she brought the poison to the party. As insane as she is, Cersei is right--she is surrounded by killers. There is no one she can trust.

Now, let us imagine that Cersei were not an evil paranoid bitch. Would she still be surrounded by killers? Yep. She would be no safer than Margaery, Sansa, or Danaerys, even if she were every bit as intelligent or good as they.

I'm sure you're onto something--Tywin was on the pot and couldn't get up, and smelled so horribly after his death, because Oberyn poisoned him, probably with help from Varys. Varys planted the coin, helped Jaime free Tyrion, helped Tyrion escape.....so this really is about Littlefinger and Varys playing chess after all, and Cersei's guesses are as good as, or perhaps better than, everyone else's. Her dream about Tyrion is prophetic, I am sure of it. She will be naked on the Iron Throne, bereft of her children, Tyrion laughing.

Gack. Do I really wanna read these books? The only character I really liked has turned evil.

[fuelpagan_tw]

Don't you think the Tyrells have a role in this too... After all QoT did poison Joff, perhaps there was some agreement the Tyrells off Joff... And Oberyn deals with Tywin. After all even if Joff is dead that helps the Tyrells advance their cause not a jot while Tywin lives and breathes.

I'm not sure what the Tyrells gain with the death of Tywin. Tyrion was concerned about the Tyrells and Dornish causing a scene after the wedding. There are several references how Dorne and the Reach do not get along from several POV's. I'm not certain they would trust each other in a plot like this.

[A wilding]

So, the coin Cersei found in Tyrion's cell IS relevant and not just a random coin left there by some other prisoner before Tyrion.

It is certainly not random. Someone left it there for Qyburn to find, in a room to which few people would have had access, and Lady Merryweather then supplied Cersei with some gossip that made it meaningful, causing Cersei to suspect that the Tyrells were behind Tyrion's escape.

My preferred theory is that Varys planted it and that Lady Merryweather is working for Varys to drive a rift between Cersei and the Tyrells. I am entirely sure that the QoT did not make a payment to Varys in this traceable coinage for Varys to then carelessly leave one behind in Rugen's cell!

ETA: Just to clarify, it was Rugen's chamber that the coin was found in, not Tyrion's cell.

[fuelpagan_tw]

It is certainly not random. Someone left it there for Qyburn to find, in a room to which few people would have had access, and Lady Merryweather then supplied Cersei with some gossip that made it meaningful, causing Cersei to suspect that the Tyrells were behind Tyrion's escape.

My preferred theory is that Varys planted it and that Lady Merryweather is working for Varys to drive a rift between Cersei and the Tyrells. I am entirely sure that the QoT did not make a payment to Varys in this traceable coinage for Varys to then carelessly leave one behind in Rugen's cell!

ETA: Just to clarify, it was Rugen's chamber that the coin was found in, not Tyrion's cell.

That would make sense with her being from Myr.

[Clariana]

I'm not sure what the Tyrells gain with the death of Tywin. Tyrion was concerned about the Tyrells and Dornish causing a scene after the wedding. There are several references how Dorne and the Reach do not get along from several POV's. I'm not certain they would trust each other in a plot like this.

The Tyrells will always be under the Lannisters thumbs while Tywin lives. With him gone they can attempt to seize power for themselves via Tommen and using their money.

"My enemy's enemy is my friend"? So Oberyn was blamed for Willas' accident? But we are also told they've exchanged friendly letters since then.

The way Dorne pitches it is that they simply want revenge for Ellaria and will be happy to allow the Tyrells to attempt to occupy the power vacuum in KL once Tywin is out of they way. What with the war and coping with its aftermath they know the Tyrells will be more than busy to make a move against them.

[fuelpagan_tw]

The Tyrells will always be under the Lannisters thumbs while Tywin lives. With him gone they can attempt to seize power for themselves via Tommen and using their money.

"My enemy's enemy is my friend"? So Oberyn was blamed for Willas' accident? But we are also told they've exchanged friendly letters since then.

The way Dorne pitches it is that they simply want revenge for Ellaria and will be happy to allow the Tyrells to attempt to occupy the power vacuum in KL once Tywin is out of they way. What with the war and coping with its aftermath they know the Tyrells will be more than busy to make a move against them.

But we know Doran plays to win by what GRRM has said. It's possible Doran knew Mace would be easy pickings once he took power...but I just don't see him taking that kind of risk. Littlefinger used the type of person Joffrey was to make the Tyrells want to eliminate Joffrey for him, he told them nothing about kidnapping Sansa. I see Doran working the same way. Any move Dorne makes that he can't pin on someone else, he's going to keep close to the vest.

I'm sure the letters between Oberyn and Willas will be important, but there is more animosity between the Reach and Dorne than the fact Oberyn crippled Willas.

[Clariana]

But we know Doran plays to win by what GRRM has said. It's possible Doran knew Mace would be easy pickings once he took power...but I just don't see him taking that kind of risk. Littlefinger used the type of person Joffrey was to make the Tyrells want to eliminate Joffrey for him, he told them nothing about kidnapping Sansa. I see Doran working the same way. Any move Dorne makes that he can't pin on someone else, he's going to keep close to the vest.

I'm sure the letters between Oberyn and Willas will be important, but there is more animosity between the Reach and Dorne than the fact Oberyn crippled Willas.

For sure there is animosity by the very existence of the letter show that it is probable on both sides that there is a mutual interest in co-operating, if only for the time being. Doran knows that the Tyrells are not really up to the job of taking and holding power, Loras is too young, Mace is a tool, Maergery a pawn (insofar as he knows...) the only one with a head on her shoulders is QoT and she is a woman and old... As for Willas... He may well be another Doran but he is not in KL. Plus a pact gives both parties a certain amount of power over each other and knowledge that QoT poisoned Joff could effectively put her, the mainstay of house Tyrell, in check, whereas Oberyn is the second son and therefore expendable... Doran can disclaim any acts he may commit given their very different temperaments, so again, in any end game with Dorne the Tyrells would have more to lose.

[John Suburbs]

The Tyrells will always be under the Lannisters thumbs while Tywin lives. With him gone they can attempt to seize power for themselves via Tommen and using their money.

"My enemy's enemy is my friend"? So Oberyn was blamed for Willas' accident? But we are also told they've exchanged friendly letters since then.

The way Dorne pitches it is that they simply want revenge for Ellaria and will be happy to allow the Tyrells to attempt to occupy the power vacuum in KL once Tywin is out of they way. What with the war and coping with its aftermath they know the Tyrells will be more than busy to make a move against them.

I wouldn't go so far to say The Tyrells were under the Lannister's thumb, given that the Tyrells can still marshal the largest army in the realm through its alliances with Hightowers and the Redwynes.

But remember, for much of Lady Olenna's life, Casterly Rock was ruled by the largely benign Tytos, so there was no real threat to the Reach from the westerlands. Then, in the blink of an eye, Tytos was gone and his machiavellian son became lord and proceeded to utterly destroy houses that defied him and engage in Shermanesque total war, burning entire countrysides and putting every last smallfolk to the sword, at the slightest provocation. And now you have this lord standing to gain control of virtually half the kingdom through the Frey/Bolton alliance and suddenly he is a very real threat just north of the Reach.

So given the long history of hostility between Highgarden and Dorne it is very unlikely that Lady O would have plotted with Oberyn or Doran to remove Tywin, but she certainly isn't shedding any tears over his death.