Reasons Roose Bolton is not so hated in the north afterall.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

score! this was the quote I had been searching for, spoken by a Locke and explaining why I think the North doesn't fully appreciate his danger. It's a grudging mistrustful consent, not open personal hatred and blame.

Aye. That's what was said, in presence of Roose Bolton's allies, and when Wyman Manderly's son was still kept hostage. Must be their real sentiment, then, why on Earth would they lie to anybody in those circumstances?

BTW, that's how that particular conversation ended:

“Are you? You came sneaking into my city like a smuggler. I say you are no lord, no knight, no envoy, only a thief and a spy, a peddler of lies and treasons. I should tear your tongue out with hot pincers and deliver you to the Dreadfort to be flayed. But the Mother is merciful, and so am I.” He beckoned to Ser Marlon. “Cousin, take this creature to the Wolf’s Den and cut off his head and hands. I want them brought to me before I sup. I shall not be able to eat a bite until I see this smuggler’s head upon a spike, with an onion shoved between his lying teeth.”

Surely, that means Davos got beheaded soon thereafter, doesn't it?

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

There is a phenomenon called Law of Averages. It caught up with Robb Stark, Tywin, Oberyn Martell. Its catching up with Lannisters and Freys as well. Likewise its about to catch up with Roose Bolton and when it does there will be nowhere to hide for him.

As for Manderley, does his action and dialogues in WF look anything like him ready to bend to Bolton. He is all ready to fuck up the Freys and Bolton. As for evidence of Bolton kiling Robb, LS has been known to frequently visit the Neck, who is to say she hasnt been sending msgs to manderllys via Howland.

As for textual evidence of northmen showing animosity towards Roose, was there any evidence (before that incident happened on page) in text about Neds beheading or Tyrell army fucking Stannis up, Sansas wedding, Red wedding, Purple wedding , Tywin death, Stannis breaking the wildlings, Theon turning on North, Ramsey betraying the north. There was no in-text direct quote to show that any of the above mentioned things are about to happen. We and in-universe characters were able to piece together our arguments about thode events later only.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Could the Smalljon's killers possibly have been Karstarks, since they are wearing furs? Are Bolton men ever described as wearing fur?

The wiki article for the RW explicitly states that they were Bolton men. I haven't checked the source out though.

...not when Roose has hostages and they all fear for their own lives if it backfires...

...it was the Freys who hold them captive...

So, which one is it? Can you make up your mind as to who holds the hostages?

Furthermore, his army is the only one intact while every other Stark loyalist has been decimated under Bolton's command.

No, no. Decimated means that every 10th person was killed - which would translate to a loss of 10%. The forces of the Stark Loyalists weren't decimated - they were obliterated.

You are right though, a child could figure Roose's involvement out.

of course, I'm not denying that at all, but only LS knows that for certain.

As well as the Greatjon, Patrek Mallister, Marq Piper and a whole hall-full of Freys.

The Frey line has been that Robb turned into a wolf and attacked everyone at the feast, yeah I know, but thats their line and they have been sticking to it, and that Robb dishonored them yadda yadda.

Funny. I distinctly remember Merrett Frey departing from that particular line when put to the question.

No I said that because only the Flint's know that there are legitimate Heir's on the Loose.

As well as Lord Wyman, Robett, Davos, Wex and who knows how many of Wyman's White Harbor confidants.

You cannot fight the Iron Born, the Boltons, and the Freys without ending up like Robb, without some serious planning and uniting. It is not something that can be done overtly.

Yeah, you can. Manderly is just being cautious about it.

...other than the King naming him Warden of the North....

The King who technically has no authority over the North since they all renounced the Iron throne and chose the Starks as their kings.

I do not think they are idle by any means, so I agree there, but with most of those houses losing their leaders, as soon as possible, is not a soon as we like, and Roose knows this.

And who are those "most" houses? The only Northern houses, who suffered a deadly blow to their leaderships were the Tallharts, the Cerwyns and the Hornwoods.

The Umbers are supposed to be held in check by the Greatjon's captivity, but that didn't stop Mors from declaring for Stannis.

The Karstarks are divided and Harrion is a mystery, but his rightful heir, Alys, is clearly pro-Stark.

The Glovers haven't lost a single leader and have declared for Stannis. The Mormonts are in a similar position, except for the fact that Lady Maege's heir was murdered at the Twins.

The Manderlys got their hostages back. The Flints from WW and the Lockes from Oldcastle follow their lead, after each of them lost a family member at the RW.

The Dustins and the Ryswells support Roose... for now.

And the Mountain Clans are actively clamoring for Bolton blood to be spilt.

[Sages]

Do you mean someone other than Brynden the Blackfish, a southerner who was at Riverrun during the Red Wedding? To be precise, Roose is the Warden of the North (GRRM has so far only used "Lord Paramount" in reference to the Trident).

Nope I misspoke thanks for the correction.

[Mourneblade]

Funny. I distinctly remember Merrett Frey departing from that particular line when put to the question.

You mean when hanging by a noose, and speaking to an eye witness? so yeah this point has no bearing on this.

As well as Lord Wyman, Robett, Davos, Wex and who knows how many of Wyman's White Harbor confidants.

Absolutely right. I forgot about Wex telling them.

Yeah, you can. Manderly is just being cautious about it.

Which was exactly my point, as opposed to overt activities.

The King who technically has no authority over the North since they all renounced the Iron throne and chose the Starks as their kings.

No a King who has Reasserted his authority by defeating the rebellion.

And who are those "most" houses? The only Northern houses, who suffered a deadly blow to their leaderships were the Tallharts, the Cerwyns and the Hornwoods.

The Umbers are supposed to be held in check by the Greatjon's captivity, but that didn't stop Mors from declaring for Stannis.

The Karstarks are divided and Harrion is a mystery, but his rightful heir, Alys, is clearly pro-Stark.

The Glovers haven't lost a single leader and have declared for Stannis. The Mormonts are in a similar position, except for the fact that Lady Maege's heir was murdered at the Twins.

The Manderlys got their hostages back. The Flints from WW and the Lockes from Oldcastle follow their lead, after each of them lost a family member at the RW.

The Dustins and the Ryswells support Roose... for now.

And the Mountain Clans are actively clamoring for Bolton blood to be spilt.

I never said deadly blow I said lost their leaders. Is Robert Glover leading his forces...not at the moment. The Umbers are split, lost and lost leaders, although I really do not think are split, pro Stark through and through imho. The Karstarks lost their Leaders, but you are correct in their new leaders loyalty, the rest have been captured or sworn to Stannis. The Manderly's are in the strongest position. The Dustins, and Ryswells loyal to Roose... for now...

So I stand by this statement.

[TheCrannogDweller]

You mean when hanging by a noose, and speaking to an eye witness? so yeah this point has no bearing on this.

He was speaking to Lem, but that's beside the point.

There are 2000 Freys, led by an active participant in the RW (Hosteen) heading into a trap. Any survivors will be tortured for information before being executed. Some of them will sing the same song Merrett did.

Is Robert Glover leading his forces...not at the moment.

No, but his wife declared for Stannis. Robett is recruiting soldiers to fight the Boltons and Galbart is at Greywater Watch, planning his next move. The Glover leadership is completely intact.

Whether they have any men to actually lead is a whole other question.

[Mourneblade]

He was speaking to Lem, but that's beside the point.

There are 2000 Freys, led by an active participant in the RW (Hosteen) heading into a trap. Any survivors will be tortured for information before being executed. Some of them will sing the same song Merrett did.

Oh I agree there 100% but that has nothing to do with it being a secret/mystery at this time, that is why I discounted it. We are talking about two different thing on this I think.

No, but his wife declared for Stannis. Robett is recruiting soldiers to fight the Boltons and Galbart is at Greywater Watch, planning his next move. The Glover leadership is completely intact.

Whether they have any men to actually lead is a whole other question.

Yes, this is true, but at the time when Roose came up Robert is presumed dead and his wife is Iron Born captive... kinda puts a damper on either of them leading an overt challenge to Roose.

I think were in more of a different time and context misunderstanding than a disagreement lol

[JLE]

Also, on the question of the Umbers:

They aren't split at all. If they were split, there would be some old men, and, more importantly, *some young men* on each side. But, that's not how it is. All the young men have stayed with Mors (a Stark loyalist), along with a few oldsters, while Hother (the defector to the Boltons) has nothing but old men.

Fast forward a few years - even one year, if this winter is particularly bad. Hother's forces will be either dead, or too old to fight, all they will be able to do in Bolton's service is eat. Meanwhile, Mors's youngbloods will be grown men. The ENTIRE future of the clan - its next generation - is pro-Stark, anti-Bolton. The Greatjon may be captive, his eldest son slain (at the Red Wedding, in the castle of the Freys, who are now allied with the Boltons, Hother has done the math), but his other children are free and alive... with Mors, who (having no children of his own) can be relied on to be a safe guardian for their interests, since *they* represent his future just as much as they represent Greatjon's.

(If necessary, Greatjon himself can be sacrificed: if there is a chance of a son coming to adulthood, Greatjon is of little use as a hostage against his son, since his son would *benefit* - by becoming clan leader - from his death, if anything. That's why hostages are sons held against the good behaviour of their fathers, not fathers held against the good behaviour of their sons.)

Another point: Before the war, it was mentioned that the last harvest was not entirely gathered in, due to lack of men to gather it. There is not enough food in the Umber lands to feed the whole clan through the winter.

So, the future of the clan... is in Umber lands, eating Umber food. The younger generation, who will be the grown men of the next generation.

And the *past* of the clan - the grandfathers who have left their future behind them with the Stark loyalists - are over in Bolton lands, eating Bolton food.

In other words, Hother and his greybeards are already fighting for the Starks, in the best way they can - by becoming a drain on their enemies' resources. They're in enemy tents, eating enemy food, at a time when enemy food is getting scarcer in supply. And for what? They're the men that are too old to fight much. They will not live to see another winter: many will not live to see the spring, for winter (as the Mountain Clan man says) is death. And the longer this winter goes on, the older they get, the less good at fighting they get, and eventually they will die. If they stayed in Umber lands, these are the people who would voluntarily eat less in time of famine, to give their sons and grandsons a better chance. Instead, they are not only staying alive, but living in their enemy's castle, eating their enemy's dinner...

In short, Hother Umber is cooperating with his brother, and is also a Stark loyalist, and Bolton doesn't suspect that yet (and nor indeed does Stannis, and Mors hasn't been about to tell him because *he* doesn't entirely trust Stannis yet.) Also, just how do you think Mors and his boys were able to get so close to Winterfell to dig pit traps without being detected? Who do you think was on guard at that part of the walls? If the nearest guards on that point of the walls wore Umber colours, and were turning a blind eye to their grandsons, I would be completely unsurprised...

[TallTyrion]

You have to wonder what sort of information Manderly got out of the 3 Freys before putting them into those pies. He could have the whole story for all we know.

[DavosSeaworthy]

The North knows they were betrayed by Roose, it is obvious to everyone in the North. The Red Wedding goes down and he suffers minimal causualties and comes out Warden of the North. Hostages or no hostages, Roose is going to get a sword put through his neck at somepoint in the near future.

[JLE]

Trouble is, I think it's going to be Ramsay who kills Roose after one "I raped your mother" comment too many. And after that, the whole Bolton cause comes falling down like a pack of cards.

[DavosSeaworthy]

You mean when hanging by a noose, and speaking to an eye witness? so yeah this point has no bearing on this.

Absolutely right. I forgot about Wex telling them.

Which was exactly my point, as opposed to overt activities.

No a King who has Reasserted his authority by defeating the rebellion.

I never said deadly blow I said lost their leaders. Is Robert Glover leading his forces...not at the moment. The Umbers are split, lost and lost leaders, although I really do not think are split, pro Stark through and through imho. The Karstarks lost their Leaders, but you are correct in their new leaders loyalty, the rest have been captured or sworn to Stannis. The Manderly's are in the strongest position. The Dustins, and Ryswells loyal to Roose... for now...

So I stand by this statement.

I strongly disagree with you about House Dustin and House Ryswell, I am quite sure they will turn on Bolton soon enough, Ramsey scares them and killed Lady Dustins nephew, who she was very fond of. The fear of Ramsey possibly becoming leader in the North has driven them to the Pro Stark side. Lady Dustin comes off as 'Lady doth protest too much' She may not be a huge fan of Ned, but she understands the North's stability is much stronger under the Starks.

[Mourneblade]

I strongly disagree with you about House Dustin and House Ryswell, I am quite sure they will turn on Bolton soon enough, Ramsey scares them and killed Lady Dustins nephew, who she was very fond of. The fear of Ramsey possibly becoming leader in the North has driven them to the Pro Stark side. Lady Dustin comes off as 'Lady doth protest too much' She may not be a huge fan of Ned, but she understands the North's stability is much stronger under the Starks.

How can you strongly disagree when I say they are loyal... For now?

That means I am not taking a stance other than appearances for the time being and totally open to the idea that they are conspiring.

[Knight of the Bluestones]

Your argument about actual evidence is sound sanzor. But the lords of the north don't need eye witness testimony too see that Roose must have been complicit in the red wedding. He has been declared the warden in the north by the lanisters who have a vested interest in seeing the Starks dead. He has remained allied with the Frey since the wedding, and has obviously benefited from the betrayal. There is way too much circumstancial evidence to damn him in the eyes of the northern lords. Not to mention that there is a history of Bolton/Stark rivalry in the north. It was commented in the book that they have much the same relationship as the Tully's and the Frey's.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

I'm constantly surprised at the need to make people smarter than they actually are. Roose is hardly the genuis he's made out to be. He knows everyone knows what he did, thats why he asked for hostages. If he thought his cover held why feel the need to ask for that? He was just counting on having Tywin around to protect him. If you think about it he didn't have a solid plan, it relied completely on Tywin. Another thing everyone knows, which is why it falls apart when he dies. The North surely knows what he did. Maybe they only strongly suspect but I doubt he gets a chance to defend himself and come up with a lie. Which is why he's so scared. I'll tell you this though, when in doubt take out everybody possibly involved. He'll lose his head just because everybody thinks he's involved. Even if he was innocent he'd be a goner. Dead man walkin.

[Mourneblade]

I'm constantly surprised at the need to make people smarter than they actually are. Roose is hardly the genuis he's made out to be. He knows everyone knows what he did, thats why he asked for hostages. If he thought his cover held why feel the need to ask for that? He was just counting on having Tywin around to protect him. If you think about it he didn't have a solid plan, it relied completely on Tywin. Another thing everyone knows, which is why it falls apart when he dies. The North surely knows what he did. Maybe they only strongly suspect but I doubt he gets a chance to defend himself and come up with a lie. Which is why he's so scared. I'll tell you this though, when in doubt take out everybody possibly involved. He'll lose his head just because everybody thinks he's involved. Even if he was innocent he'd be a goner. Dead man walkin.

Roose is extremely intelligent... If you think he is not, I suggest a re read

[Boarsbane]

Roose is extremely intelligent... If you think he is not, I suggest a re read

Agreed, the way he fucks Robb over by sending the non Dreadfort men off to die while keeping his own forces intact and then lets Glover take the blame for Duskendale is hilarious.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Also, on the question of the Umbers:

They aren't split at all. If they were split, there would be some old men, and, more importantly, *some young men* on each side. But, that's not how it is. All the young men have stayed with Mors (a Stark loyalist), along with a few oldsters, while Hother (the defector to the Boltons) has nothing but old men.

Fast forward a few years - even one year, if this winter is particularly bad. Hother's forces will be either dead, or too old to fight, all they will be able to do in Bolton's service is eat. Meanwhile, Mors's youngbloods will be grown men. The ENTIRE future of the clan - its next generation - is pro-Stark, anti-Bolton. The Greatjon may be captive, his eldest son slain (at the Red Wedding, in the castle of the Freys, who are now allied with the Boltons, Hother has done the math), but his other children are free and alive... with Mors, who (having no children of his own) can be relied on to be a safe guardian for their interests, since *they* represent his future just as much as they represent Greatjon's.

(If necessary, Greatjon himself can be sacrificed: if there is a chance of a son coming to adulthood, Greatjon is of little use as a hostage against his son, since his son would *benefit* - by becoming clan leader - from his death, if anything. That's why hostages are sons held against the good behaviour of their fathers, not fathers held against the good behaviour of their sons.)

Another point: Before the war, it was mentioned that the last harvest was not entirely gathered in, due to lack of men to gather it. There is not enough food in the Umber lands to feed the whole clan through the winter.

So, the future of the clan... is in Umber lands, eating Umber food. The younger generation, who will be the grown men of the next generation.

And the *past* of the clan - the grandfathers who have left their future behind them with the Stark loyalists - are over in Bolton lands, eating Bolton food.

In other words, Hother and his greybeards are already fighting for the Starks, in the best way they can - by becoming a drain on their enemies' resources. They're in enemy tents, eating enemy food, at a time when enemy food is getting scarcer in supply. And for what? They're the men that are too old to fight much. They will not live to see another winter: many will not live to see the spring, for winter (as the Mountain Clan man says) is death. And the longer this winter goes on, the older they get, the less good at fighting they get, and eventually they will die. If they stayed in Umber lands, these are the people who would voluntarily eat less in time of famine, to give their sons and grandsons a better chance. Instead, they are not only staying alive, but living in their enemy's castle, eating their enemy's dinner...

In short, Hother Umber is cooperating with his brother, and is also a Stark loyalist, and Bolton doesn't suspect that yet (and nor indeed does Stannis, and Mors hasn't been about to tell him because *he* doesn't entirely trust Stannis yet.) Also, just how do you think Mors and his boys were able to get so close to Winterfell to dig pit traps without being detected? Who do you think was on guard at that part of the walls? If the nearest guards on that point of the walls wore Umber colours, and were turning a blind eye to their grandsons, I would be completely unsurprised...

Totally agree.

[Theon {HUNGRY WOLF} Stark]

Trouble is, I think it's going to be Ramsay who kills Roose after one "I raped your mother" comment too many. And after that, the whole Bolton cause comes falling down like a pack of cards.

With a crossbow bolt. ala Tyrion shooting Tywin :) :)

[TheCrannogDweller]

I think were in more of a different time and context misunderstanding than a disagreement lol

So you're talking about Roose's initial plan and I was talking about the latest developments which thwart it?

<snip>

Ha. Well, that was a very eye-opening post. Thank you for that.

I've always found it odd that Hother and Mors split the Umber forces by age, but I never made the connection with the old northerners' "going hunting" tradition.