Robb Could Have Won

[Galaxian]

The problem with the shadow baby is twofold. Not only does it come out of nowhere, but the excuse as to why it can't be used again feels half-assed too.

[Sir Lee knot]

You want some real Deus Ex Machinas? How about these 2

Renly, the guy with the biggest army, gets killed by a magical shadow baby.

Then Rodrik Cassell goes full retard and takes ALL of the Winterfell defenders away from the capital, leaving it so that even Maester Aemon could get inside with no problem.

Going full retard explains it quite well.

You AT LEAST leave 100 soldiers to guard the motherfucking capitol and Princes. In fact, the small folk probably would have repelled Theon's band of brothers. It's one of those things in the series that you just have to stop using logic.

And yeah. The shadow babies do seem like lazy writing. It's like in Harry Potter how they have the time traveling watch but only use it once and never speak of it again.

Let's slay the myth Robb naturally would have lost - kill it, burn the body, and bury its bones.

Damn right.

[Galaxian]

And yeah. The shadow babies do seem like lazy writing. It's like in Harry Potter how they have the time traveling watch but only use it once and never speak of it again.

Oh, they came up again. In OotP they knock down a case full of those watches duirng the "Rescue Sirius" mission, you know the mission that ended up in a tremendous failure, if only they could have gone back and rectify their mistake.

I guess each series has one. ASOIAF has the shadow baby, Harry Potter has the watch, and Lord of the Rings has the eagles.

[Sir Lee knot]

Oh, they came up again. In OotP they knock down a case full of those watches duirng the "Rescue Sirius" mission, you know the mission that ended up in a tremendous failure, if only they could have gone back and rectify their mistake.

I guess each series has one. ASOIAF has the shadow baby, Harry Potter has the watch, and Lord of the Rings has the eagles.

Yeah, unfortunately as good as many of these authors are. When they are writing thousands of pages eventually a few mistakes fall through the cracks.

[Red Tiger]

Almost missed this

:agree:

-There were inaccuracies in your own post, like Euron raiding the Reach while Tywin lived

-The Mountain Clans and Manderly were not implied to be nearly as powerful in ASOS as they are in ADWD

-He meant that of all the individual Northern Houses, the Boltons were the strongest post-RW. Pretty obviously true. What do you think the Red Wedding was, exactly?

Good points but a couple of things.

It's not like the Mountain clans supplied Stannis with 20.000 forces or so, the supply a couple of thousand, I thought I read something of about 3500 plus. Stannis is outnumbered against the Boltons and everybody knows it, he's gonna have to win through cunning.

Being the strongest house can mean several things. Prestige, having strong ties to other powerful families or wealth. I think House Manderly is more influential due to riches, so in a way the Boltons would still be the most powerful house, especially with the crown backing them to take the North. House Bolton is tied to House Ryswell and House Dustin, both influential houses that have largely been untouched by the war. Arguments can be made that House Hightower is in many ways more powerful than House Tyrell and we didn't hear that much about their power early on either.

[Frey Pie]

The casualties at the Green Fork were done with Robb's blessing, under his orders, as part of his plan. Not really fair to give Roose full responsibility for them - he never had a good chance of beating Tywin with less men and no heavy horse

I believe Robb used the words confront Tywin. He didn't tell him to march all night and try to surprise the unsurprisable Tywin. Roose could have picked a better plan e.g. A holding action, skirmishing and retreating etc.

And there are plenty of examples armies with little cavalry defeating ones with more. Which is not to say Roose wasn't the clear underdog in this fight

[Universal Sword Donor]

The casualties at the Green Fork were done with Robb's blessing, under his orders, as part of his plan. Not really fair to give Roose full responsibility for them - he never had a good chance of beating Tywin with less men and no heavy horse

They were done, more or less, under Robb's blessing in the least effective way possible. There's a reason Tyrion doesn't see the Flayed Man banner flying anywhere on the battlefield, at least in the combat areas.

[Bryanfury]

He pointed. “When Lord Tywin gets word that we’ve come south, he’ll march north to engage our main host, leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun.”

Robb specifically chose Roose over the Greatjon to minimise the potential losses. One could argue that the forced march Roose enacted wasn't needed, nor was the extent of their engagement. We learn from the next Tyrion chapter that Tywin himself chooses to march north to meet the Northerners thinking Robb is with them, so I have to think that Roose did indeed achieve nothing positive by the forced march, which wasn't ordered by Robb at all. Some people have theorised that this was the first instance of Roose undermining Robb's power by sacrificing many of Robb's men while saving his own.

[Sir Lee knot]

Robb specifically chose Roose over the Greatjon to minimise the potential losses. One could argue that the forced march Roose enacted wasn't needed, nor was the extent of their engagement. We learn from the next Tyrion chapter that Tywin himself chooses to march north to meet the Northerners thinking Robb is with them, so I have to think that Roose did indeed achieve nothing positive by the forced march, which wasn't ordered by Robb at all. Some people have theorised that this was the first instance of Roose undermining Robb's power by sacrificing many of Robb's men while saving his own.

I actually tend to think that Roose was genuinely trying to win that battle. Because if he wanted to lose he could have made the casualties a lot higher.

But hey. If no one has been paying attention it seems like the Tywin fanboys have routed.

[Galaxian]

I actually tend to think that Roose was genuinely trying to win that battle. Because if he wanted to lose he could have made the casualties a lot higher.

He couldn't over do it or Robb might have gotten suspicious.

[Frey Pie]

Robb specifically chose Roose over the Greatjon to minimise the potential losses. One could argue that the forced march Roose enacted wasn't needed, nor was the extent of their engagement. We learn from the next Tyrion chapter that Tywin himself chooses to march north to meet the Northerners thinking Robb is with them, so I have to think that Roose did indeed achieve nothing positive by the forced march, which wasn't ordered by Robb at all. Some people have theorised that this was the first instance of Roose undermining Robb's power by sacrificing many of Robb's men while saving his own.

I am one of those people- it seems pretty obvious to me when you look at cat and Robb's conversation and them how it all actually played out

But he wasn't committed to betraying Robb yet. He was on the fence so he got his rivals killed off and pulled off a skillful retreat keeping the main army mostly intact. He made it so it was a win win situation for him

[Nittanian]

I actually tend to think that Roose was genuinely trying to win that battle. Because if he wanted to lose he could have made the casualties a lot higher.

So Spake Martin:

Hate to bother you but I have a question concerning Roose Bolton's betrayal. There are some that think that Roose had treachery in mind from the minute Robb left Winterfell. That his battle against Tywin was against Robb's wishes and meant to weaken the other Northern Houses. I believe he first thought of treachery after Stannis was defeated and Highgarden joined with the Lannisters. Could you clarify any of this or will is it something that is to be revealed later?

Lord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself.

And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that.

[Starkfaithful85]

It's flat out not achievable in the long run (i.e. once the South has finished squabbling). Certainly not by force of arms.

if robb has just said riverlands you are on your own...take his captive jaime lannister back to the north to be a dignified prisoner...keep 5000k of his army guarding moat caitlin...send catelyn stark to treat with balon greyjoy/ or roose bolton...roose would not have betrayed robbs cause if robb had jaime locked up in winterfell...increase the winterfell guard by 500...

at this point he could have mailed one of jaime's fingers to tywin telling tywin that for every 3 days that sansa and arya(i know arya wasnt there but robb didnt know that) remain in the capital robb will cut of a finger, then he could take one of two approaches when tywin responds

1. if tywin was willing to let jaime be tortured rather than return the daughters...then when he runs out of fingers send his tongue, after the tongue eyes...then if nothing happens don't kill Jaime send a covert escort to let him lose in the reach/dorne ...showing how even the mighty lord tywin can't protect his son...then all you have to do is wait for tywin to march on the north to try and castermere the starks

2. if tywin does send the girls back...immediately propose to marry sansa to loras, i know loras is gay but the death of renly would cause highgarden to flee to support robb if the starks had a marriage pact...offer to wed marg to edmure and in one stroke you have bolstered your army...maybe could get the allegience of the grey joys if you vow to help them take their crown from the lannisters by invading lannisport...with the reach and ironborn on robbs side he would be able to sack lannisport and starve out casterly rock if he couldnt capture it...all during this time stannis was headed to kingslanding...this would have made a lannister defeat all but certain

[The Dragon King]

if robb has just said riverlands you are on your own...take his captive jaime lannister back to the north to be a dignified prisoner...keep 5000k of his army guarding moat caitlin...send catelyn stark to treat with balon greyjoy/ or roose bolton...roose would not have betrayed robbs cause if robb had jaime locked up in winterfell...increase the winterfell guard by 500...

at this point he could have mailed one of jaime's fingers to tywin telling tywin that for every 3 days that sansa and arya(i know arya wasnt there but robb didnt know that) remain in the capital robb will cut of a finger, then he could take one of two approaches when tywin responds

1. if tywin was willing to let jaime be tortured rather than return the daughters...then when he runs out of fingers send his tongue, after the tongue eyes...then if nothing happens don't kill Jaime send a covert escort to let him lose in the reach/dorne ...showing how even the mighty lord tywin can't protect his son...then all you have to do is wait for tywin to march on the north to try and castermere the starks

2. if tywin does send the girls back...immediately propose to marry sansa to loras, i know loras is gay but the death of renly would cause highgarden to flee to support robb if the starks had a marriage pact...offer to wed marg to edmure and in one stroke you have bolstered your army...maybe could get the allegience of the grey joys if you vow to help them take their crown from the lannisters by invading lannisport...with the reach and ironborn on robbs side he would be able to sack lannisport and starve out casterly rock if he couldnt capture it...all during this time stannis was headed to kingslanding...this would have made a lannister defeat all but certain

A Stark/Tyrell alliance would have been a powerhouse, too bad the Starks didn't pursue it.

[I'm the Party Pooper]

if robb has just said riverlands you are on your own...take his captive jaime lannister back to the north to be a dignified prisoner...keep 5000k of his army guarding moat caitlin...send catelyn stark to treat with balon greyjoy/ or roose bolton...roose would not have betrayed robbs cause if robb had jaime locked up in winterfell...increase the winterfell guard by 500...

at this point he could have mailed one of jaime's fingers to tywin telling tywin that for every 3 days that sansa and arya(i know arya wasnt there but robb didnt know that) remain in the capital robb will cut of a finger, then he could take one of two approaches when tywin responds

1. if tywin was willing to let jaime be tortured rather than return the daughters...then when he runs out of fingers send his tongue, after the tongue eyes...then if nothing happens don't kill Jaime send a covert escort to let him lose in the reach/dorne ...showing how even the mighty lord tywin can't protect his son...then all you have to do is wait for tywin to march on the north to try and castermere the starks

2. if tywin does send the girls back...immediately propose to marry sansa to loras, i know loras is gay but the death of renly would cause highgarden to flee to support robb if the starks had a marriage pact...offer to wed marg to edmure and in one stroke you have bolstered your army...maybe could get the allegience of the grey joys if you vow to help them take their crown from the lannisters by invading lannisport...with the reach and ironborn on robbs side he would be able to sack lannisport and starve out casterly rock if he couldnt capture it...all during this time stannis was headed to kingslanding...this would have made a lannister defeat all but certain

I am sorry, but 'preventively' cutting off fingers doesn't look like a winning strategy to me.

It's quite plausible that Tywyin will cut off one, or even more, fingers from Sansa Stark in response.

Having Jamie captive and secure is enough.

[Starkfaithful85]

I am sorry, but 'preventively' cutting off fingers doesn't look like a winning strategy to me.

It's quite plausible that Tywyin will cut off one, or even more, fingers from Sansa Stark in response.

Having Jamie captive and secure is enough.

the difference is that robb and the starks had heirs that they recognized...not saying that it is right but the mutilation of sansa would have a significantly smaller impact on the stark legacy. Tywin intended to hand casterly rock to jaime a man respected partially because of his family and also because of his prowess as a swordsman...i believe that the threat of mutilating tywins heir would have significt impact on his positioning in the war. Sansa at the time has very little poltical potential comparative to jaime.

[The Dragon King]

the difference is that robb and the starks had heirs that they recognized...not saying that it is right but the mutilation of sansa would have a significantly smaller impact on the stark legacy. Tywin intended to hand casterly rock to jaime a man respected partially because of his family and also because of his prowess as a swordsman...i believe that the threat of mutilating tywins heir would have significt impact on his positioning in the war. Sansa at the time has very little poltical potential comparative to jaime.

Tywin isn't weakened by his people being hostages