Population estimates of the 7K and Essos

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Just to put some numbers to it:

Urban population of Germany about 13xx was less than 20%. Only counting cities with 5,000 or more inhabitants, it was less than 8%.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Actually, it's not. Unless you are counting Russia as Europe.

No. Westeros (below the Wall) is a bit over 3000 miles long, so lets say 5000 km. Then it is a bit less than 1500 miles wide at its widest, so lets say 2200 km. 5000 X 2200 = 11 000 000 square kilometres. Then shave off a good quarter or so of that to account for Westeros not being a square, and you end up with around 8 000 000 square kilometres. Europe is a bit over 10 000 000 square kilometres, so it is indeed somewhat larger than Westeros.

Rough calculation, so if you have anything better to come with you are free to show it.

[Arakan]

It's quite a low number. Europe, at about half the landmass, featured 73 million inhabitants in 1300, got dented down to 45 millions thanks to the Black Death and was back to 78 millions in 1550.

A direct comparison with Europe's ~75 millions shortly before the black death is hardly possible and you know why. And you also know that Europe saw a massive population boom 1000-1250 and stable high levels the decades afterwards.

The big unknown factor is the effect of Winter in population development in general.

Conclusion: a 1:1 macro-economic comparison with Europe is not possible.

btw I really have a hard time to imagine some place like Barrowton with 30k inhabitants...more like 10k...

[Game Of Thrones]

Sadly my estimations were way off the mark. Will make a better one next time after some research. :(

[Ingelheim]

No. Westeros (below the Wall) is a bit over 3000 miles long, so lets say 5000 km. Then it is a bit less than 1500 miles wide at its widest, so lets say 2200 km. 5000 X 2200 = 11 000 000 square kilometres. Then shave off a good quarter or so of that to account for Westeros not being a square, and you end up with around 8 000 000 square kilometres. Europe is a bit over 10 000 000 square kilometres, so it is indeed somewhat larger than Westeros.

Rough calculation, so if you have anything better to come with you are free to show it.

As I said, counting West Russia, Europe it's bigger than Westeros. Because the "European" part of Russia must be around 3500000-4000000 square kilometers (right now I can't do the maths).

[Bright Blue Eyes]

A direct comparison with Europe's ~75 millions shortly before the black death is hardly possible and you know why. And you also know that Europe saw a massive population boom 1000-1250 and stable high levels the decades afterwards.

Yes, I know. Just wanted to correct the impressiont that it couldn't have as much due to it's limited space another poster gave off.

The big unknown factor is the effect of Winter in population development in general.

Spot on. But during the last couple generations, winters were mild. I'd guess the Wot5K and the Long Night will have a similar effect on Westeros as the Black Death had on Europe.

Conclusion: a 1:1 macro-economic comparison with Europe is not possible.

btw I really have a hard time to imagine some place like Barrowton with 30k inhabitants...more like 10k...

Me as well.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

As I said, counting West Russia, Europe it's bigger than Westeros. Because the "European" part of Russia must be around 3500-4000 square kilometers (right now I can't do the maths).

Well, yes. But why wouldn't you count western Russia as Europe?

[Ingelheim]

Well, yes. But why wouldn't you count western Russia as Europe?

Beause it makes things harder for these kind of calculations. Western Russia culture is European, but the point is...where do you stop?

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Beause it makes things harder for these kind of calculations. Western Russia culture is European, but the point is...where do you stop?

Beyond the Ural Mountains. That's the usual border between Europe and Asia.

[Arakan]

Just to put some numbers to it:

Urban population of Germany about 13xx was less than 20%. Only counting cities with 5,000 or more inhabitants, it was less than 8%.

Thanks for bringing in some needed perspective :).

I think the HRE can be used as benchmark due to its decentralized character, which is similar to many Westerosi regions.

IIRC the HRE had roughly 15-20 million inhabitants prior to the black death (incl. Kingdom of Bohemia and Kingdom of Italy) with Milano (~200k), Prague (80-100k) and Cologne (~50k) being by far the biggest cities. That said and given infrastructure restraints some of the numbers for Westerodi cities and towns seem over-the-top.

[Arakan]

But during the last couple generations, winters were mild. I'd guess the Wot5K and the Long Night will have a similar effect on Westeros as the Black Death had on Europe.

That analogy is great. I like it :).

Yes indeed, you are right. The last few winters were relatively mild and short IIRC. Plus relative political stability during Targaryen reign. I think it's fair to assume that Westeros saw quite a population growth during the last 300 years.

And of course you are right, excl. the effects of winter and given 14/15th century level of Technology a place like Westeros could support 70-100 million inhabitants "easily".

When it comes to Eastern Europe we have to keep in mind that actually that place could have supported much higher population levels but one cannot underestimate the negative longterm effects Mongols and the Ottoman Empire had, esp. due to a state of constant warfare in many Eastern European regions (Balkans, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland).

I often call it the "unknown European history" ;)

[Arakan]

Beyond the Ural Mountains. That's the usual border between Europe and Asia.

In late medieval / Renaissance times Moscow was considered the very edge of Europe. So it makes no sense to go as far as the Ural Mountains.

[SeanF]

I'd expect a place like Barrowtown to be in the 5-10,000 range, and that would be a fair-sized city, in medieval times.

Apart from Kings Landing, Old Town, Lannisport, Gulltown, and White Harbour, I doubt if anywhere in Westeros would exceed 25,000 inhabitants.

[Ingelheim]

IIRC, the biggest city in Europe in the early Middle Ages was Córdoba, in Spain, 800,000 men and women living in there.

I don't know how populated London or Paris were in the 13th and 14th century.

[SeanF]

IIRC, the biggest city in Europe in the early Middle Ages was Córdoba, in Spain, 800,000 men and women living in there.

I don't know how populated London or Paris were in the 13th and 14th century.

Pre-Black Death, I think Paris had reached 200,000, London 60,000.

[Arakan]

I'd expect a place like Barrowtown to be in the 5-10,000 range, and that would be a fair-sized city, in medieval times.

Apart from Kings Landing, Old Town, Lannisport, Gulltown, and White Harbour, I doubt if anywhere in Westeros would exceed 25,000 inhabitants.

Spot on.

I always Imagined the biggest towns out of the Top5 to be Maidenpool/Duskendale/Planky Town with 30k max.

Given a factor of 5 peasants to feed one city dweller (maybe down to 4:1) I have also a very hard time to imagine White Harbor with 100k. More like 50-60 at maximum. and eben this is huge given the "natural" constraints of the North.

[Arakan]

IIRC, the biggest city in Europe in the early Middle Ages was Córdoba, in Spain, 800,000 men and women living in there.

I don't know how populated London or Paris were in the 13th and 14th century.

But Córdoba (same as Constantinople) was a very special case. In some way (mainly due to its importance as cultural/economic hub) Córdoba reminds me of Oldtown.

Estimation of medieval city population is quite difficult. IIRC the most accepted average for Córdoba in 1000 was roughly 500k (same as Constantinople around the time). But variations are great.

[Ingelheim]

But Córdoba (same as Constantinople) was a very special case. In some way (mainly due to its importance as cultural/economic hub) Córdoba reminds me of Oldtown.

Estimation of medieval city population is quite difficult. IIRC the most accepted average for Córdoba in 1000 was roughly 500k (same as Constantinople around the time). But variations are great.

IIRC my Spanish history lessons, Córdoba reached 800,000 people around 950-960, but it was just during a short period of time. 70 years later, the Caliphate itself was broken and ended.

The lowest estimations for the city have been around 500k, while the highest, nearly 1 million, which is kinda of impossible. I like to take the middle ground, 750-800K.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Firstly, regarding the city sizes:

We are given the 500k approximation for King's Landing in the text - by either Tyrion or Littlefinger or a similar individual that would be deemed fairly knowledgeable by Westerosi standards, if I recall.

As much as that figure is debated (as to whether it includes the influx of refugees during the War of the Five Kings, as well as the tens of thousands of Tyrell troops temporarily in the city), it remains the only concrete figure we are given for any of the cities in Westeros.

But we do have comparisons - directly from an SSM (which I don't know how to search for, but which I know exists) - for the other cities in relation to King's Landing. We are told that Oldtown is of comparative size to King's Landing, but that King's Landing is the largest city in Westeros.

We are told that Gulltown and White Harbor are the two smallest cities, and that they have populations "in the tens of thousands each", with Gulltown being the larger of the two by a small margin.

We are told that Lannisport is much smaller than Oldtown and King's Landing, but much larger than White Harbor or Gulltown.

So with all of the above, a rough ranking of city population sizes could be as follows:

King's Landing - 500k

Oldtown - 400k

Lannisport - 200k

Gulltown - 60k

White Harbor - 50k

The estimates for Gulltown and White Harbor are the average figure you would get in the "tens of thousands" range. Halfway between 10,000 and 100,000.

I think this comment by Martin also disqualifies any other settlement from being in the "tens of thousands" category, else they would have been mentioned alongside White Harbor and Gulltown. That tells me that towns like Barrowton, Duskendale, Stony Sept, Sunspear, the Planky Town, Wintertown etc. all number in the thousands of people, but don't quite crack the 10,000 plus level.

Regarding the overall population of the Seven Kingdoms:

Europe at 4 million square miles had an average population density of around 20 people per square mile in the Middle Ages.

It must be borne in mind though that a country like France - which in terms of fertility and demography seems to be comparable to the Reach in Westeros - had a density of between 50 an 80 people per square mile in 1300. Medieval France was smaller than today's 250k square miles, but even at today's size, France is less than half the size of the Reach.

So even if you give the Reach only half or a third of France's medieval population density , that still gives you upwards of 10 million people living just in the Reach alone.

Now let's look at army sizes and compare them to armies in medieval Europe for attempts at population extrapolation.

The Battle of Grunwald in 1410 is considered to be one of the largest battles ever in Medieval Europe, and according to Wikipedia the one side had between 16,000-39,000 troops, while the other had between 11,000-27,000 troops. So that means the upper estimate for the largest army involved in an actual battle in Medieval Europe is around 39,000, but it could be as low as 16,000.

That means that the Battle of the Trident - involving some 40k troops on Rhaegar's side and 30k on Robert's side - was comparable to the upper estimate for the Battle of Grunwald, but involved more than twice as many men as the lower estimate for Grunwald.

In terms of individual kingdoms, we've seen the Reach raise around 100k men, which is an unbelieably massive army by medieval standards.

All of this speaks to a total of 40 million people for Westeros not being at all unreasonable.

My view is something along the lines of:

Reach: 12 million

North: 6 million

Riverlands: 6 million

Westerlands: 4.5 million

Vale: 4.5 million

Stormlands: 3.5 million

Dorne: 3 million

Iron Isles: 1 million as an extreme upper estimate.

The North, however, likely is not able to raise as large a percentage of their population to war as the other kingdoms can, due to massive distances, poor infrastructure, rough terrain and the unforgiving climate. Hence they can probably raise a similar strengthed army to the Vale or the West, despite having a larger (but widely dispersed) population. It also takes them longer to raise their army than it does the smaller southron kingdoms.

In short, if the North raises 30k men, it probably signifies a higher total population for the North than if the Stormlands raise 30k men, due to the greater difficulty the North has in gathering their forces together, supplying them and marching them over large distances.

[Ingelheim]

In terms of individual kingdoms, we've seen the Reach raise around 100k men, which is an unbelieably massive army by medieval standards.

Didn't Frederick Barbarossa raise 100,000 men for the Third Crusade?