let's all relax: this AA business is nbd

[sj4iy]

That is not the point but I suppose it is rather pointless at this point. I have never said that GRRM is deconstructing every given point, so your bafflament comes from lack of understanding what is said here. Basically, Martin deconstructs the idea of true hero, a standard you so adamantly try to inforce here. Which is kinda nonsensical, given said deconstruction and GRRM's words wrt it.

Oh, look. You've once again accused me of taking a stance which I never recall actually taking.

Show me where I've stated that the story will have a TRUE HERO. If you can show me where I stated that, I might take your arguments seriously. Otherwise, this is yet another attempt at a strawman argument to 'prove' that I don't understand a fictional story as well as you do.

I do recall saying that there are central figures, our main protagonists, upon which the story will converge at the climax, and that AAR will likely end up being one of those protagonists...along with TPTWP and TSTMTW. How that got translated to "The story will have a true hero who will save the day!", I will never know.

[butterbumps!]

I do recall saying that there are central figures, our main protagonists, upon which the story will converge at the climax, and that AAR will likely end up being one of those protagonists...along with TPTWP and TSTMTW. How that got translated to "The story will have a true hero who will save the day!", I will never know.

I'm still confused about why you believe it's critical to the plot to identify said characters as individual prophesied savior/ messiahs/ heroes, though. You had disagreed with my assertion that who's AA (or any of these guys) is "no big deal," stating that you believe it's a big deal, and cited how it's critical for bringing the plot together. But I don't understand your rationale on how this is critical to bring the story together. Stories are wrapped up all the time without having the characters be prophesied messiahs.

[Frey family reunion]

Like everything else in the series, it's another puzzle to solve.

[sj4iy]

I'm still confused about why you believe it's critical to the plot to identify said characters as individual prophesied savior/ messiahs/ heroes, though. You had disagreed with my assertion that who's AA (or any of these guys) is "no big deal," stating that you believe it's a big deal, and cited how it's critical for bringing the plot together. But I don't understand your rationale on how this is critical to bring the story together. Stories are wrapped up all the time without having the characters be prophesied messiahs.

I never said they are saviors or messiahs. What I am saying is absolutely, utterly and completely different from that. I've never once argued that any of these prophesied figures would ever be saviors or messiahs. Basically, I believe as I've always believed- that they will be leaders...but they won't lead alone. They will each play important parts, but they won't be special because they are prophesied figures...but because they are leaders.

However, the reason the prophecy is important is because this particular story has made it important. They are central elements to the narrative, and have changed the story in myriad ways.

TPTWP: Rhaegar started a war over this that caused the downfall of his house and changed the entire landscape of Westeros. Sam has just told Marwyn that Aemon believed that Dany is TPTWP.

AAR: Melisandre has manipulated Stannis and changed the course of the War of the 5K because she believes he is this prophesied figure. Moqorro is on his way to Dany because of Benerro's belief that she is AAR.

TSTMTW: MMD tricks Dany into sacrificing her unborn son in order to stop Rhaego from becoming TSTMTW, but by doing so, she unwittingly helped Dany bring dragons back to the world.

The story has been pushed forward by these prophecies and radically changed by these prophecies, so you can't argue that they haven't been important.

So, if Dany ends up being AAR, why is that important? It's important because of the people who believe it's important. It's important because of the Melisandres, the Benerros, the Moqorros, who BELIEVE its important. No, it won't make Dany do anything differently than she already was going to do...but it will make those following her act differently. Same goes for her being the Stallion that Mounts the World. If she's going to unite all of the Dothraki underneath her, they will have to see her as this legendary figure. Same goes for Jon in any of these roles. Or anyone else who ends up in these roles. Look at Stannis- look at the lengths that Melisandre has gone to in order to serve him.

Titles have meaning. Titles have power. They always have. The prophecies are important to the story. AAR is important to the story. These prophecies can unite people underneath these leaders in ways that nothing else could. It's no different than calling someone a King or a Lord. Does that mean the person himself (or herself) will believe it? Not really. They will simply get on with things. It will be just another tool at their disposal. That's why I don't like the term 'messiah' or 'savior'...because I don't believe that is an apt description- that would indicate that I thought the character himself believed that they are humanity's savior. That's not at all what I think. I think Dany and Jon are smart enough to realize that even prophesies mean nothing without action.

[butterbumps!]

I never said they are saviors or messiahs. What I am saying is absolutely, utterly and completely different from that. I've never once argued that any of these prophesied figures would ever be saviors or messiahs. Basically, I believe as I've always believed- that they will be leaders...but they won't lead alone. They will each play important parts, but they won't be special because they are prophesied figures...but because they are leaders.

However, the reason the prophecy is important is because this particular story has made it important. They are central elements to the narrative, and have changed the story in myriad ways.

TPTWP: Rhaegar started a war over this that caused the downfall of his house and changed the entire landscape of Westeros. Sam has just told Marwyn that Aemon believed that Dany is TPTWP.

AAR: Melisandre has manipulated Stannis and changed the course of the War of the 5K because she believes he is this prophesied figure. Moqorro is on his way to Dany because of Benerro's belief that she is AAR.

TSTMTW: MMD tricks Dany into sacrificing her unborn son in order to stop Rhaego from becoming TSTMTW, but by doing so, she unwittingly helped Dany bring dragons back to the world.

The story has been pushed forward by these prophecies and radically changed by these prophecies, so you can't argue that they haven't been important.

So, if Dany ends up being AAR, why is that important? It's important because of the people who believe it's important. It's important because of the Melisandres, the Benerros, the Moqorros, who BELIEVE its important. No, it won't make Dany do anything differently than she already was going to do...but it will make those following her act differently. Same goes for her being the Stallion that Mounts the World. If she's going to unite all of the Dothraki underneath her, they will have to see her as this legendary figure. Same goes for Jon in any of these roles. Or anyone else who ends up in these roles. Look at Stannis- look at the lengths that Melisandre has gone to in order to serve him.

Titles have meaning. Titles have power. They always have. The prophecies are important to the story. AAR is important to the story. These prophecies can unite people underneath these leaders in ways that nothing else could. It's no different than calling someone a King or a Lord. Does that mean the person himself (or herself) will believe it? Not really. They will simply get on with things. It will be just another tool at their disposal. That's why I don't like the term 'messiah' or 'savior'...because I don't believe that is an apt description- that would indicate that I thought the character himself believed that they are humanity's savior. That's not at all what I think. I think Dany and Jon are smart enough to realize that even prophesies mean nothing without action.

It doesn't matter whether you are calling them messiahs, saviors or heroes. They are saviors/ messiahs/ heroes to the people who put stock into them in story. That's the whole point of this. They are saviors/ messiahs/ heroes to various perspectives in story.

But whatever, let's call them "leaders." If these "leaders' are not special because they've been prophesied, but are important because they are leaders, then what could it possibly matter if any of them align with these prophesied figures, since their significance doesn't come from the fact that they are prophesied? Why is that important in terms of bringing the story together in some literary sense?

Are you basically saying that unless these pivotal characters are identified as and recognized by people in story as one or more of the mythical figures, then they won't get people to follow them, and therefore, can't wrap up the story?

[sj4iy]

Are you basically saying that unless these pivotal characters are identified as and recognized by people in story as one or more of the mythical figures, then they won't get people to follow them, and therefore, can't wrap up the story?

Yes. I think the story hinges on them being recognized as such, and everyone coming together at the climax in order to fight the Others. Whether it's Dany, Jon, Tyrion, all of them or none of them, being recognized as these prophesied figures will be important to those that follow them.

Why do I think the story will hinge on this? Because that's how it's been written. The story has ebbed and flowed with these prophecies since book one, so it has to follow through to the conclusion.

I'm just going to reiterate that I personally dislike prophecies, but I can't blind myself to their importance in this story. It's one thing that I like about the show- the prophecies have been cut down to the bare minimum. But it still has the prophecies concerning AAR and TSTMTW, which they wouldn't keep if they weren't significant to the story somehow. I could very well be wrong, but that's how I see it. And really, there's no way to prove or disprove it until we have the last two books.

[BearQueen87]

It doesn't matter whether you are calling them messiahs, saviors or heroes. They are saviors/ messiahs/ heroes to the people who put stock into them in story. That's the whole point of this. They are saviors/ messiahs/ heroes to various perspectives in story.

Use AAR as an example. Let's say it really is Jon Snow. Does that matter to the Reds who have already declared for Dany and are now willing to follow her as their prophesied messiah? They weren't there to see any of the signs people here at the forums points to as reasons why Jon might be AAR--granted they weren't there to see Dany come forth from the fire with three dragons, but it's a story that has become widespread throughout Essos. And more importantly, it's the story they accepted. They aren't going to change their mind (probably) upon hearing about Jon and whatever signs he may have.

Yes. I think the story hinges on them being recognized as such, and everyone coming together at the climax in order to fight the Others. Whether it's Dany, Jon, Tyrion, all of them or none of them, being recognized as these prophesied figures will be important to those that follow them.

In the case of Dany, she has been recognized by the Reds as AAR, to the point where they are sending her an instructor. And, I'll go out on a limb and say the Dothraki might follow suit with their own messiah figure.

[Lord Varys]

Well, people may do stupid things because they believe in stuff. But this does not make it true. Just because Aeron Greyjoy believed the Storm King brought down his wrath on Balon and let him fall to his death doesn't make it true.

Another thing:

The assumption that the series will eventually end up in a sort of religiously motivated savior war (Jon vs. Stannis vs. Aegon vs. Daenerys) is reasonably well founded (especially by prophecy - the three lies Dany is supposed to slay), but the very idea that only one hero is the real deal, and the others are fakes, frauds, or false prophets who could only make matters worse is already interpretation.

As of yet, for instance, I'm not sure how the false savior Stannis has made (or could make) matters worse. He fights the good fight. Surely you can't make matters worse if you are fighting the good fight? The assumption that a real burning sword could make a difference militarily is ridiculous (but I do admit that dragons could be very useful in warfare, especially as a means to come to the rescue in the last minute).

My personal guess, though, is that some/all of the savior figures/heroes (or, rather, most human (POV) characters) may be forced to make common cause to deal with the real threat. It would be rather difficult for GRRM to explain how and why the main pretenders (and especially) their followers would care all that much about the Iron Throne when the world/humanity in itself is at stake.

A scenario where Stannis, Aegon, Jon, Dany, Tyrion are tearing each other apart because they firmly believe that only they are destined and capable to deal with the Others makes no sense whatsoever. The game of thrones can continue for some time in North and South, but when the Others, winter, and the Long Night come again in full force, those things will become increasingly unimportant.

[BearQueen87]

I think one of the things we're touching on but not saying outright--apart from the OP--is how religious communities rationalize their beliefs when presented with new evidence. I want to two give two examples, one that is a potential possibility for in text and one that is a real world example.

IN TEXT: Continuing with AAR = Jon Snow. Let's say Jon does "the thing"--whatever it is. But Dany at the same time is doing "a thing." Now it's not THE thing that AAR is supposed to do but it is still a thing that helps eradicate darkness or bring fire and light, something that the Reds see as evidence of AAR-hood. Would the Red Priests who have been following Dany all this time suddenly drop her as their messiah figure and flock to Jon? I don't think so. And here's where the real world example comes into play.

REAL WORLD: The earliest Christians believed that Jesus, as their appointed Messiah, would bring the paraousia. And in fact, he would bring it REALLY SOON. Like, at any moment. Paul tells the Thessalonians that the Day of the Lord will comes "like a thief in the night," (1st Thess 5:2) so they better be prepared for it. Here's the rub: he didn't come. When faced with year after year of no second coming, did the Christians stop believing in Jesus as their Messiah? Did Christianity die out? No. It realigned its beliefs in how Jesus was the Messiah, but never that Jesus was the Messiah.

So to go back to ASOIAF, Jon might do THE THING (whatever it is) but I don't see the Reds jumping ship when Dany doesn't do THE THING. Instead, they reevaluate how Dany is their messiah in light of what has happened.

[Lord Varys]

Jon Snow still has to do anything remotely magically or wondrous to convince anyone of his special status (besides skinchanging), but if he does something like that in the near future, it will only reach a limited audience, neither of which are caring all that much about prophecy and religion (besides Mel, Selyse, and the Queen's Men).

Later on, whatever signs and portents occur may perhaps convince a lot of people if they coincide with the end of the Long Night or at least help people fight off the Others and their wights.

If the new Long Night affects all the world, Volantis as well as Castle Black, and if many people learn what may be the real cause for this whole thing, reason may rule in the end.

The religions surroundings, trappings, and interpretations of all this stuff are not even superficially true (and neither are the rational explanations of the Citadel). That's why GRRM introduced Bran and the weirnet.

When people learn what actually happened, they can try to find a way to make it better this time. And this way should not include the imperative 'Kill all the false saviors'.

[sj4iy]

Here's a good question:

Some people believe that Dany is AAR because of her dragons.

Let's say Jon ends up pulling a sword out of a fire and that sword is Lightbringer.

Who is AAR? Who would people believe?

[El Guapo]

Here's a good question:

Some people believe that Dany is AAR because of her dragons.

Let's say Jon ends up pulling a sword out of a fire and that sword is Lightbringer.

Who is AAR? Who would people believe?

The people who believe it is Dany will continue to believe it is Dany, The people at the Wall who think it is Stannis may switch to Jon after this event. There will be no consensus.

[Lord Varys]

How should we know? Ask Varys, he is the one with the riddle.

The answer would be that it depends on what do those people know (who the heck is Asor Ahay?!), what they believe (The Seven-pointed Star and the High Septon never mentioned this chap), and what they want to believe (Jon Snow is sooo sweet with his dangerous scars, he must be the One!).

[BearQueen87]

Here's a good question:

Some people believe that Dany is AAR because of her dragons.

Let's say Jon ends up pulling a sword out of a fire and that sword is Lightbringer.

Who is AAR? Who would people believe?

Butterbumps! pointed this out in another thread but Lightbringer isn't part of prophecy. It's part of the legend of AA. Quoting from that thread

"Lightbringer" isn't even in the prophesies of Azor Ahai Reborn. It's from the original AA legend (told to us by Saan, Mel and the Jade Compendium), and even then it sounds a lot more like a dragon when you look at Rhaego's death and the adjacent legends about how dragons are made. Mel talks about Lightbringer wrt Stannis. But it's not in the prophesies about AAR. The prophesies of AAR-- as per Mel, Aemon, Benerro and Marwyn-- speak of a bleeding star/ stars, gathering darkness, and waking stone dragons. Mel kicks up a fuss about Lightbringer for a very obvious reason-- it's a hell of a lot easier to fake a glowing sword than it is to fake dragons. It's basically a con. She's playing fast and loose with what's in the actual prophesy versus the original legend because it suits her purpose. If you can't fake the thing this Reborn hero is supposed to wield, fake the easier thing he's alleged to have in the legend.

X

[sj4iy]

Butterbumps! pointed this out in another thread but Lightbringer isn't part of prophecy. It's part of the legend of AA. Quoting from that thread

X

It's part of a different prophecy. There are several different prophecies concerning AAR- but they are all still prophecies, and Lightbringer is most definitely part of a prophecy about AAR:

“In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.”

“He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord’s chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragon-stone is the place of smoke and salt.”

It can't be written in ancient books unless there is a long-standing prophecy about it. Lightbringer is integral to the prophecy of AAR.

[butterbumps!]

Yes. I think the story hinges on them being recognized as such, and everyone coming together at the climax in order to fight the Others. Whether it's Dany, Jon, Tyrion, all of them or none of them, being recognized as these prophesied figures will be important to those that follow them.

Why do I think the story will hinge on this? Because that's how it's been written. The story has ebbed and flowed with these prophecies since book one, so it has to follow through to the conclusion.

I'm just going to reiterate that I personally dislike prophecies, but I can't blind myself to their importance in this story. It's one thing that I like about the show- the prophecies have been cut down to the bare minimum. But it still has the prophecies concerning AAR and TSTMTW, which they wouldn't keep if they weren't significant to the story somehow. I could very well be wrong, but that's how I see it. And really, there's no way to prove or disprove it until we have the last two books.

The story is written such that AAR will not only be clearly identified and recognized as a current character by the readers, but that doing so it critical for literary integrity?

Or is this really about how recognition and identification of AAR by characters within the story is critical to the way the story is written? Like how the fact that Mel's plugging Stannis as AAR is kind of important to his character, and so forth?

You said you disagreed with the OP for saying that AAR or whatever prophesied "leader" is no big deal. As in, these figures are not the end all be all, AAR =/= one true hero, and we can all stop abusing these prophesies to fit our favorite character, since being AAR doesn't make anyone a transcendent hero. If you think AAR and whatever else is critical to the story because characters who care about such things will see their hero in various characters, then I don't get what you disagree with me about.

[butterbumps!]

It's part of a different prophecy. There are several different prophecies concerning AAR- but they are all still prophecies, and Lightbringer is most definitely part of a prophecy about AAR:

“In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.”

“He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord’s chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragon-stone is the place of smoke and salt.”

It can't be written in ancient books unless there is a long-standing prophecy about it. Lightbringer is integral to the prophecy of AAR.

Yea, and as was pointed out, the part about LB doesn't appear to be part of the "actual" prophesy. The "actual" AAR prophesy that everyone repeats is the darkness gathering, bleeding stars, smoke and salt, waking dragons.

Now, think about it. What is Mel doing when she says these lines, trying to link LB to the prophesy? She's doing that little LB presentation to declare Stannis the Lord's chosen, right? What's easier to fake for such a presentation-- a glamoured sword like the apparent original myth, or the dragons AAR's "actually" prophesied to wake?

[sj4iy]

Yea, and as was pointed out, the part about LB doesn't appear to be part of the "actual" prophesy. The "actual" AAR prophesy that everyone repeats is the darkness gathering, bleeding stars, smoke and salt, waking dragons.

Now, think about it. What is Mel doing when she says these lines, trying to link LB to the prophesy? She's doing that little LB presentation to declare Stannis the Lord's chosen, right? What's easier to fake for such a presentation-- a glamoured sword like the apparent original myth, or the dragons AAR's "actually" prophesied to wake?

You can't say it doesn't 'appear' to be part of the prophecy. You have absolutely no way to deciding what is 'the real part of the prophecy' from what isn't. It's completely arbitrary. I see absolutely nothing in that quote that sets the line about Lightbringer apart from the rest.

Whether it's a sword or whether it turns out to be dragons, its still Lightbringer.

[butterbumps!]

You can't say it doesn't 'appear' to be part of the prophecy. You have absolutely no way to deciding what is 'the real part of the prophecy' from what isn't. It's completely arbitrary. I see absolutely nothing in that quote that sets the line about Lightbringer apart from the rest.

Whether it's a sword or whether it turns out to be dragons, its still Lightbringer.

We get a few accounts of the original AA myth, right? That one refers to a "Lightbringer."

Then we get Mel, Benerro, Aemon and Marwyn refer to AAR's prophesy a whole bunch of times. Consistently, without fail, the accounts of the AAR prophesy involves some combo of bleeding stars, gathering darkness, smoke and salt, and waking dragons from stone. No LB though.

Except the one time that Mel's putting on Stannis' "AAR coming out party." You don't find this even remotely curious that this is the one context the AAR prophesy is connected to Lightbringer?

Think about it for a second. Do we agree that it's a hell of a lot easier to fake a glowing sword as a token of being some messianic fire guy than it is to fake a dragon? So Mel needs a token to put on this show and the glowing sword is the way to go. Great.

Now, as part of the sales pitch to sell the idea of Stannis as a prophesied hero, what do you think she's going to say of the prophesy? "Stannis is AAR, come to wake dragons from stone. But pay no attention to the dearth of woken stone dragons. He's totally the guy, just trust me on this"??

[sj4iy]

We get a few accounts of the original AA myth, right? That one refers to a "Lightbringer."

Then we get Mel, Benerro, Aemon and Marwyn refer to AAR's prophesy a whole bunch of times. Consistently, without fail, the accounts of the AAR prophesy involves some combo of bleeding stars, gathering darkness, smoke and salt, and waking dragons from stone. No LB though.

Except the one time that Mel's putting on Stannis' "AAR coming out party." You don't find this even remotely curious that this is the one context the AAR prophesy is connected to Lightbringer?

Think about it for a second. Do we agree that it's a hell of a lot easier to fake a glowing sword as a token of being some messianic fire guy than it is to fake a dragon? So Mel needs a token to put on this show and the glowing sword is the way to go. Great.

Now, as part of the sales pitch to sell the idea of Stannis as a prophesied hero, what do you think she's going to say of the prophesy? "Stannis is AAR, come to wake dragons from stone. But pay no attention to the dearth of woken stone dragons. He's totally the guy, just trust me on this"??

We hear Saan, Thoros and Aemon all talk about Lightbringer. They clearly expect AAR to have Lightbringer.

You cannot arbitrarily decide what is ancient prophecy and what is not. None of us can. We might hazard guesses, but we have no way of confirming our suspicions. We can't even tell if it's a bleeding star or bleeding stars or a red star. There's absolutely no way to determine what is applicable and what is not.

I will point out that the tv show has cut out quite a lot of the prophecies, and they've drastically simplified these particular prophecies. Nothing about dragons, nothing about Azor Ahai, nothing about The Prince that Was Promised, nothing about salt or smoke. But we have "Lightbringer". We have "in the ancient books it is written that a warrior will pull a sword from a fire". Lightbringer, be it dragons or sword, is important enough that it stays in by name in the show, when even AAR gets dropped. If it's important there, I can't see it not being an actual part if the actual prophecy in the books.