Petyr Baelish's support in the Vale

[Blackfish Tully]

Actually, a lot of LF's plan relies on the Vale Lords accepting bribes to act in his interests rather than those of their liege Lords.

The lords he's bribed?

But who are these liege lords whose interests he is bribing them against? Isn't he their liege lord as Protector of the Vale?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

That's not true . He understands very much how people act of loyalty and he plans to use that against his enemies and allies . He understands how powerful Sansa last name is and he will use her Stark/Tully heritage to get the Vale Lords and Riverlords to do what he wants them to do.

According to LF, he can control anyone if he knows what that person really wants. This is a simple and effective strategy but life is sometimes more complicated than that.

Exactly. He does not fully understand that, and if he does (which he might), he definitely doesn't consider it a big thing. He's bribing Lords at the Vale, and he believes he can buy them with titles and honours, but those honours are empty. That's not how they value honour and loyalty.

Once LF reveals Sansa as Ned's daughter, he believes the Lords will rally on her name by her just being a Stark/Tully and because he had been protecting her. That's not how it works. Look at the North: it's not that they will simply accept Arya as Ramsay's bride: they are mad because they are hurting her, they are hurting NED's GIRL. They aren't "grateful" because "oh, look! We're so lucky that this awful guy is trying to breed with Arya Stark and we'll have a Stark in Winterfell!". It's more complicated than just having a Stark heir back in the North. It's the same with Sansa. As soon as Sansa says "yeah, this guy kill my dad, kill him!", the LatV will kill LF and rally on Ned's name, not LF.

[Lee-Sensei]

^Neds name? Or Jon Arryns?

No he's not. Robert Arryn is their Liege Lord. LF's just the regent, and many of them weren't even happy about that.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

^Neds name? Or Jon Arryns?

No he's not. Robert Arryn is their Liege Lord. LF's just the regent, and many of them weren't even happy about that.

Jon Arryn was pretty much like a father to Ned. The LotV wanted to support Robb, Ned's son, in Jon's name. Because Jon already fought a war to Ned's behalf.

I think that, despite them wanting to get rid of LF, who has made himself regent without deserving it, they could want to honour Jon's memory by supporting Ned's girl and kill the man who helped Ned to be murdered.

[Lee-Sensei]

^Some of them wanted to join Robb and avenge Jon. That war was fouht on Robert's behalf as well

Don't you think it's more likely that instead of supporting Ned's girl, they'd want to support Jon's family... whether it's SR or Harry?

[Blackfish Tully]

Exactly. He does not fully understand that, and if he does (which he might), he definitely doesn't consider it a big thing. He's bribing Lords at the Vale, and he believes he can buy them with titles and honours, but those honours are empty. That's not how they value honour and loyalty.

Once LF reveals Sansa as Ned's daughter, he believes the Lords will rally on her name by her just being a Stark/Tully and because he had been protecting her. That's not how it works. Look at the North: it's not that they will simply accept Arya as Ramsay's bride: they are mad because they are hurting her, they are hurting NED's GIRL. They aren't "grateful" because "oh, look! We're so lucky that this awful guy is trying to breed with Arya Stark and we'll have a Stark in Winterfell!". It's more complicated than just having a Stark heir back in the North. It's the same with Sansa. As soon as Sansa says "yeah, this guy kill my dad, kill him!", the LatV will kill LF and rally on Ned's name, not LF.

When did Littleinger kill Ned Stark? and even if he had something to do with it , how would Sansa know?

[Lee-Sensei]

The better question is how didn't Sansa find out. Don't most people in KL know about the role LF played?

[Colonel Green]

When did Littleinger kill Ned Stark? and even if he had something to do with it , how would Sansa know?

The better question is how didn't Sansa find out. Don't most people in KL know about the role LF played?

Two distinct thingsbeing talked about here:

(1) Littlefinger bought the Goldcloaks and betrayed Ned in the throneroom.

(2) Littlefinger influenced Joffrey to break the deal and execute Ned.

(2) is speculative, but it's obvious why Sansa doesn't know about it. How she might learn, though, is also difficult to see. Regarding (1), there's no reason why that should be a secret; the most likely reason is that nobody bothers to say anything about it around Sansa because it's not of any seeming relevance, and Sansa never makes any direct inquiries into what precisely went down during Ned's coup, so far as we see, given that it would be dangerous to do given her circumstances.

[Blackfish Tully]

The better question is how didn't Sansa find out. Don't most people in KL know about the role LF played?

who would have told her? she was surrounded by enemies and I cannot imagine any of them talking to her about Littlefingers role in Ned Stark's arrest

[juanml82]

Exactly. He does not fully understand that, and if he does (which he might), he definitely doesn't consider it a big thing. He's bribing Lords at the Vale, and he believes he can buy them with titles and honours, but those honours are empty. That's not how they value honour and loyalty.

Once LF reveals Sansa as Ned's daughter, he believes the Lords will rally on her name by her just being a Stark/Tully and because he had been protecting her. That's not how it works. Look at the North: it's not that they will simply accept Arya as Ramsay's bride: they are mad because they are hurting her, they are hurting NED's GIRL. They aren't "grateful" because "oh, look! We're so lucky that this awful guy is trying to breed with Arya Stark and we'll have a Stark in Winterfell!". It's more complicated than just having a Stark heir back in the North. It's the same with Sansa. As soon as Sansa says "yeah, this guy kill my dad, kill him!", the LatV will kill LF and rally on Ned's name, not LF.

And how is LF showing himself as anything other than Ned's little girl protector and mentor?

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

We have continually seen smart and dumb, cunning and naive, experienced and not, old and young, be fooled by the people they deem their followers. And not all who are expected to be loyal or appear as such to be truly be so. I don't see why LF would be different in that, and he might just find the negatives of the other side that he took advantage of, requiring the loyalty of many others and be exposed as a true power player with a target on his back.

And certainly the Lord Declarant's of the Vale might be able to play their own cunning little games and underestimating them to be a fatal mistake. Feigning support in exchange of whatever bullshit LF offers, while they know that Sansa is Sansa for example.

The way I imagine things going is LF at some point having to escape the Vale with his life and he does so with Sansa. But we will see how it goes.

[juanml82]

We have continually seen smart and dumb, cunning and naive, experienced and not, old and young, be fooled by the people they deem their followers. And not all who are expected to be loyal or appear as such to be truly be so. I don't see why LF would be different in that, and he might just find the negatives of the other side that he took advantage of, requiring the loyalty of many others and be exposed as a true power player with a target on his back.

And certainly the Lord Declarant's of the Vale might be able to play their own cunning little games and underestimating them to be a fatal mistake. Feigning support in exchange of whatever bullshit LF offers, while they know that Sansa is Sansa for example.

The way I imagine things going is LF at some point having to escape the Vale with his life and he does so with Sansa. But we will see how it goes.

And why is he escaping? How has he hurt the LotV? If the LotV all love The Ned, how is his relationship with Sansa a bad thing instead of a good thing? Apparently, LF is planning to use the LotV to reclaim the North for Ned's little girl (or so he says) and he could certainly use them to avenge the RW. How does that earn the enmity of the Vale?

IOW, why would the LotV be against him except than because of his low birth?

[Qhorin Halfhand and Yoren]

And why is he escaping? How has he hurt the LotV? If the LotV all love The Ned, how is his relationship with Sansa a bad thing instead of a good thing? Apparently, LF is planning to use the LotV to reclaim the North for Ned's little girl (or so he says) and he could certainly use them to avenge the RW. How does that earn the enmity of the Vale?

IOW, why would the LotV be against him except than because of his low birth?

I imagine they are not braindead and seeing how it unfolds with Jon Arryn dies, Lysa's lover moves in and gets power, Lysa dies, Sweet Robin the only Arryn remaining is seen for the power play it is. And if/when LF uses Sansa, he might be seen to be continuing that. They already formed as a group against his power seizing tactics. And yeah his little birth doesn't help with that, he isn't an Arryn the house some of them are loyal to. And some of them wouldn't like the ruthless power climber, for good reason. The actions they did to rise, and the actions they might do to rise further, to them you are expendable. And it does seems LF is planning to get rid of Robyn Arryn.

The Royce house might have already got the smell of Sansa as we might see from Myranda's dialogue.

Additionally it is not as if LF is the only powerful player, there might be other ulterior motives to jump ship when Daenerys appears, Aegon becomes stronger and so on. Betraying LF might be the start of something else or a way to protect the Vale. We might see some strange alliances among houses. If when Rickon appears which LF hasn't seem to calculated that might throw off his plans as well.

All that being said until LF fails he is going to have some successes with the lord declarant as well, but I do see him getting betrayed by them or some of them.

That is assuming (revealed) Sansa doesn't move against him first and at such convince LD to move against him. Which might happen if he slips in his advances towards him.

[juanml82]

I imagine they are not braindead and seeing how it unfolds with Jon Arryn dies, Lysa's lover moves in and gets power, Lysa dies, Sweet Robin the only Arryn remaining is seen for the power play it is. And if/when LF uses Sansa, he might be seen to be continuing that. They already formed as a group against his power seizing tactics. And yeah his little birth doesn't help with that, he isn't an Arryn the house some of them are loyal to. And some of them wouldn't like the ruthless power climber, for good reason. The actions they did to rise, and the actions they might do to rise further, to them you are expendable. And it does seems LF is planning to get rid of Robyn Arryn.

The Royce house might have already got the smell of Sansa as we might see from Myranda's dialogue.

Additionally it is not as if LF is the only powerful player, there might be other ulterior motives to jump ship when Daenerys appears, Aegon becomes stronger and so on. Betraying LF might be the start of something else or a way to protect the Vale. We might see some strange alliances among houses. If when Rickon appears which LF hasn't seem to calculated that might throw off his plans as well.

All that being said until LF fails he is going to have some successes with the lord declarant as well, but I do see him getting betrayed by them or some of them.

That is assuming (revealed) Sansa doesn't move against him first and at such convince LD to move against him. Which might happen if he slips in his advances towards him.

The Lannisters killed Jon Arryn (or so Lysa said), Lysa mourns for two years, gets married to someone well beneath her status, gets killed after the marriage by a bard who was probably thought to be her lover and SR is seen as the epileptic, spoiled little brat he is. It does not look like LF is planning to get rid of him - if anything, Yohn Royce seems more likely to do so

And if the Royces believe Alayne is Sansa, how is that something to hold against LF?

Jumping ship for Aegon or Dany can be enticing (if LF doesn't do it earlier), specially if Dany arrives with dragons. But also keep in mind one of the threats that made the LD pull back was LF claiming the Vale would bleed. There are several LotV who aren't keen on a Vale civil war at the moment.

[Lee-Sensei]

1) LF is a Lannister man.

2) Did anyone ever suggest that the bard was Lysa's lover?

3) SR is seen as Jon Arryn's only son and heir.

4) Royce is an honorable man. Certainly more honorable, respected and trusted than LF in the Vale.

[Monctonvike]

1) LF is a Lannister man.

2) Did anyone ever suggest that the bard was Lysa's lover?

3) SR is seen as Jon Arryn's only son and heir.

4) Royce is an honorable man. Certainly more honorable, respected and trusted than LF in the Vale.

I agree LF really has an uphill batlle, I don't think he is being honest with Sansa, its either there is more to his master plan or he is just going by the seat of his pants.

[juanml82]

1) LF is a Lannister man.

2) Did anyone ever suggest that the bard was Lysa's lover?

3) SR is seen as Jon Arryn's only son and heir.

4) Royce is an honorable man. Certainly more honorable, respected and trusted than LF in the Vale.

1) Is he? He was put in the Small Council by Jon Arryn, he's never called as such by the LD, the Lannisters won the Wot5K anyways and his purported plans supposedly involve a Stark restoration - on top of being in a collision course with the Freys already

2) Lysa gave him gifts including Jon Arryn's falcon, expelled anyone who spoke ill of him, allowed him to mock her lords and the bard is known to be ladies man. How hard is to believe Lysa was sleeping with him, which in turn makes LF' story all the more believable. Plus, the rest of the Vale knows whatever Nestor Royce let them know. Did he confess because of the obvious torture he suffered? Or was he a bit roughen up, as it is expected of the man who murders a Lord's wife? It's up to what game Nestor Royce is really playing.

3) So? Littlefinger is his stepfather which, as Lord Nestor says, should be enough for everyone to accept him as Lord Protector and LF is in no way mistreating him

4) Yohn Royce raised the Vale in rebellion to get hold of Robert Arryn. When that failed, he made efforts to befriend Robert's heir apparent: staged a melee so he could knight him and, according to Myranda, planned to marry him to some relative of him (Myranda herself?). If that marriage came into fruition, the moment SR dies, Lady Waynwood becomes Lord Protector, a friend of the Bronze Yohn becomes Lord of the Vale, a relative of the Bronze Yohn becomes Lady of the Vale and a Royce becomes grandfather to the next Lord of the Vale.

Who is more interested in SR's death? LF or the Bronze Yohn?

[Lee-Sensei]

1) He was given Harrenhall by the Lannisters for his serice to the Crown. Besides that, one of the LD's is fostering a Frey and House Royce is related to them. A massacre of the Frey's isn't likely to endear the Vale Lords to him.

2) That means no. There's no reason to believe that they were lovers.

3) And yet we know that they were going to remove him anyways.

4) He gathered he Vale Lords to get rid of LF. LF is more interested in SR's death. Yohn Royce is an honorable man and the idea that he cares more about Ned's daughter than Jon's son, doesn't sit well with me.

[Blackfish Tully]

1) He was given Harrenhall by the Lannisters for his serice to the Crown. Besides that, one of the LD's is fostering a Frey and House Royce is related to them. A massacre of the Frey's isn't likely to endear the Vale Lords to him.

You think that the Vale Lords have any sympathy for the Freys ? Everybody hates the Freys especially Bronze Yohn. The Freys are related to many Houses in Westroes but that did not stop them from murdering 3000 men and it will not stop the Vale Lords from joining in their massacre.

The Freys are also rich so Littlefinger may be able to use the chance for plunder to get the greedier lords on board.

[Lee-Sensei]

Correction. Most people in the North and the Riverlands hate the Frey's. Again, the Frey's are related to the Royces and Anya Waynwood is raising a Frey girl. It's rather telling that one of the people in the Vale that actually likes the Starks, is raising one of the Frey kids.