Stannis Pink Letter Confirmed?

[TheWhiteRabbit]

It is a possibility to consider only so long as you acknowledge the problem with it as well.

Stannis, based on the text, had ravens for Winterfell and not the Wall.

So for Stannis to get a letter to the Wall requires its own supporting theory, and it will in all cases be one that is 100% speculation without the slightest bit of text to back it up.

It is therefore not a proposal worth betting on over any other.

I agree. The possibility that it was Stannis that wrote the letter is the least likely. However, I really like the idea of the conspirators being involved in some type of alteration.

The letter was written by Mance, Mance is the only one with all the required information. He has gotten to know Ramsey through rumors that are being spread around Winterfell and that is how he wrote it as Ramsey himself, he slips up in this façade by using the word "bastard" which is what he called Jon and the Bastard of Bolten wouldn't use this word he despises. He is the master of reading people and knowing about them, that is how he united all the wildings and became King beyond the Wall in the first place. He is writing this letter to insight Jon to do exactly what he intended on doing and bringing a Wildling army down to Winterfell to in order to Defeat the remnants of Roose's army in Winterfell. His intention being that he would try to hold Winterfell with his own Wildling army that Jon would have hand delivered to him.

These are all sound points, but Stannis/Nights Watch has Mance's son hostage (obviously not the real son, but I do not believe Mance knows this). Is Mance willing to let his son die to hold Winterfell?

[Satin fetch me a cock!]

Considering Jon does not know Ramsay, why would Mance have to "learn" how Ramsay is and write a letter on his behalf? The only person who would know that the letter sounds JUST like Ramsay is us, the ASOIAF reader, not the character reading the letter. If Mance was trying to deceive Jon, all he had to do write a letter and sign it as Ramsay, but yet, the "Mance wrote the letter" believers seem to think that Mance knew Ramsay well enough to the point to where he could write a letter that was able to fool, the actual reader of the ADWD reader, whom really got to know Ramsay through Theon.

So the perception we have of Ramsay, which comes from Theon, falls in line with the Ramsay that authored the pink letter. The evidence seems to point to Ramsay as the author of the pink letter. However, I will admit that there is a chance that Stannis (via Theon) wrote the letter. I seriously doubt Mance would be able to gather enough "hearsay" in his time at Winterfell to know Ramsay well enough he could fool Jon and us, the readers. The only way Mance was behind the letter was when the spear wives told Theon "not before you sing for Bael" they meant he had to go write a letter and Theon wrote the letter at Mances behest.

[bemused]

Hippocras...

I don't think it's fair to say logic is being stretched..that all depends (and for each of us must depend) on what else we believe is going on in the story. I happen to think that, apart from the "7 days of battle" (which is either code, or a vast exaggeration), Stannis absolutely can know or believe everything in the letter.

He knows about the Mance / Rattleshirt glamour. After speaking with Mance "for hours", he probably knows as much as Jon does about Mance, and perhaps more, such as "Abel" - Mance's singer alias. But even if he doesn't know the name, he's smart enough to piece together the truth - from what he knows, put together with Theon's ramblings.

In what they said to Theon the washerwomen revealed themselves as wildlings and Abel's plan was to get "Arya" to Stannis. Stannis knows he didn't send Mance, so Jon must have.(Stannis knows that, from the moment he gave "Rattleshirt" to Jon, Mance started giving Jon blatant hints about his true identity). ...He knows from Theon, as well as from the general Bolton reputation (or stories the northmen in his host could supply) , what sort of thing would be likely to happen to Mance & co , if caught. ...Everyone knows the Bolton reputation for flaying.

If Stannis had already taken WF , he could write openly to Jon. Jon doesn't have to reveal the content of the letters he receives , so that would be a poor way to attempt to inflame the wildlings. But if Stannis had not yet managed to take WF, that would mean he still might die.. If he died and the Boltons won, the news of "Abel's" capture and identity (if learned by the Boltons) would come out.. and it would be better for Jon and everybody at the wall, if Stannis alone was responsible for sparing him. ..So, the letter, in effect, warns Jon that this is something he may have to deal with and (probably, before tampering) suggested that Jon put the blame on Stannis. (Thus minimizing backlash from the NW.)

I suppose anyone who doesn't think Stannis knows about the glamour would find this a stretch. But I think the signs in the text are (from the way Stannis acts and the other subterfuges he's been OK with) that Stannis knows.

You say ,

" 2. Stannis did in fact write to Winterfell, not the Wall. Whatever he wrote provoked a pivotal moment inside Winterfell that caused Ramsay to employ desperate tactics, including the Pink Letter."

In fact, this is not fact , and entirely your speculation. As far as I can tell, it's an unsupported hypothesis . In fact, we haven't seen Stannis write a letter at all in the Theon chapter, nor has he stated any intention of doing so. He received a letter from Jon and signed an agreement with Tycho... that's all.

From the text, Stannis' exchange with Tybald suggests he could send a letter to WF , just as the behaviour of the ravens (besides what we know of the abilities of Bloodraven and Bran) suggests he could send a letter to CB. ...You favour one suggestion , I favour the other. ( Repeat: actually ,I think he will likely do both.)

It's absolutely unbelievable to me, that Roose and Ramsay would just sit on their backsides for approximately 3 (or 4?) days after "Arya" and Theon's escape, without making a move to get them back.. That's the girl on whom their whole claim to WF is founded and their sole witness to her authenticity.

It's also inconceivable to me that they would entrust her recapture to the Manderlys (?!) or the Freys...or that they would give her time to reach Jon, while they wrote to Jon and waited for his reply .. Or if they weren't going to wait , why give Jon any advantage whatsoever, by warning him Ramsay was coming ?.. (I thought the Boltons were supposed to be cunning.)

You also say,

"So for Stannis to get a letter to the Wall requires its own supporting theory, and it will in all cases be one that is 100% speculation without the slightest bit of text to back it up."

This statement is wrong, overall. ...Anything that is postulated requires some sort of support, that's true (whether based on known fact or supporting theory). In the case of the letter, this is just as true for any of the other candidates for author, as it is for Stannis - including Ramsay, since we don't see him write it.

The second part of the statement (in bold) is simply false. I think for most thoughtful posters or careful readers (on any topic ), any supporting theory they may have is also based on clues they found in the text. This is certainly true in my case . It probably is in yours, too... So to say - it will in all cases be one that is 100% speculation without the slightest bit of text to back it up - is an extreme overstatement and a misrepresentation.

Any of us might disagree as to the weight these clues should be given , or even on what constitutes a clue and what does not...But what is being put forth almost always relates back to what GRRM has written about his world (ASoIaF, Dunk and Egg, TWoI&F, etc.) or said in a SSM.

[mbuehner]

What about Theon as a suspect? He could write in Ramsay's voice better than anyone (and with his messed up hand in that handwriting).

Lets say for a moment that either Stannis is dead, or rumored to be dead, and that got Theon available as a free agent for whoever has ahold of him. If its some combination of the Northmen and Mance, they could well decide the only way to get Jon to break his vows and come take up the Stark banner is through this trick. Mance would benefit by getting an army of his free folk into the heart of the North for his own reasons, perhaps to gain acceptance.

[Hippocras]

^ I would rate the likelihood of Stannis actually being dead at about 0.000001%

1. Stannis's words to Massey make it pretty clear he intended to fake his death. If people now believe him to be dead, it is because he wanted it that way. He sent a raven somewhere in order to spread this false belief, and the only question is if he sent said raven to Winterfell, or to the Wall. My guess is that Winterfell makes the most sense, because that is where he had ravens trained to go to, and that something was pre-arranged between Stannis, Mance and Melisandre, making his letter to Winterfell in part a deception for Ramsay, and in part a message for Mance.

2. The way it worked with Theon was this: Stannis was going to burn him. Asha begged for him to be beheaded under a weirwood instead to spare him the pain of burning. Bran, via the ravens, strongly agreed with this, shouting "tree!" "tree!" emphatically after she suggested it. Theon is technically King of the Iron Islands, his father having declared himself King and Theon not having actuallly been dead making the Kingsmoot invalid. Theon is a kingsblood sacrifice, sooner or later - either for Stannis, or for Jon. Ignoring the set-up GRRM has given us will simply put people in danger of being in shock as they were for the Red Wedding.

3. Just as Theon's sooner-or-later beheading under a weirwood has been set up, so too has Stannis's destiny having something to do with the Drowned God of the Iron Islands. First there was Patchface, then there was Davos being returned from the sea. Then there was Patchface recognizing Davos as returned from the sea. Then, Stannis somehow ended up with BOTH Greyjoy heirs as prisoners. Since GRRM is not a writer of random events, it is really quite safe to predict that Stannis will soon become involved in some way in the affairs of the Iron Islands. Therefore he will not die at Winterfell.

[bemused]

I agree with much of Hippocras' post ,above ....except, (I repeat) I think Stannis (having 2 ravens) will send one to Winterfell and one to the Wall.

I'm not entirely sure that Theon will be a kingsblood sacrifice, though it's possible... I can't help feeling that human sacrifice is something that should be moved away from , if the current winter / summer cycle is to be broken. Magic is real and natural to the world, but magic manipulated by this method may be the cause of many unnatural imbalances. I think the northern belief that a man cannot lie before a heart tree may be the important factor involving the weirwood and Theon.

[Themongrel]

^ The Boltons do have their own armies. Why do you say Ramsay has no men? The Boltons came away from the Red Wedding relatively strong.

I agree Stannis fakes his death, but I think the scenario is really quite a bit simpler. In your scenario, Manderly's men themselves would have to not recognize Ramsay, which would be false as they have been at Winterfell together. Manderly's men would not simply allow Ramsay to hide among them.

I think it goes like this:

1. Karstarks arrive with ravens trained for Winterfell, intending to send word on Stannis's position and strength. Stannis realizes they are traitors a d captures them, including the ravens.

2. Manderly's forces defect.

3. Stannis writes false report to Winterfell, pretending to be from the Karstarks saying Stannis was defeated.

4. Meanwhile inside Winterfell, Mance and Spearwives may have been captured by Ramsay perhaps when Theon escaped, but something isn't right about the details of the Pink Letter. Ramsay's normal way, if he has flayed someone is to use their skin to send messages. The Pink Letter was not written on human skin with blood. So it is quite unclear what really happened inside Winterfell, but regardless, Stannis used to ravens to pretend he had been defeated. Stannis did not himself write the Pink letter.

^ This. Not sure about the defection of manderly forces yet. Did i miss something or foget it regarding this?

[Hippocras]

^ This. Not sure about the defection of manderly forces yet. Did i miss something or foget it regarding this?

It is pretty obvious the Manderlys will not willingly fight for the Boltons against Stannis. Manderly sent Davos to get Rickon, and if he comes back Manderly offered support to Stannis. So fighting him now would kind of wreck that plan. Also, there is the Frey Pies. No Manderly lives will be put on the line in defense of Boltons.

So when Roose sent out the Manderlys to fight Stannis, it is just simply not plausible that they would actually do it. They either withdrew to White Harbour, choosing neither side, or they joined Stannis.

[Ser Mummer]

I believe the letter was from Mance because is the theory that satisfies me the most. BUT I have a little theory of my own. I think Roose Bolton tortured a captured wildling woman, the one who had the rope and then sent the letter to capture valuable hostages and regain fArya. That will explain the manner of the letter and the information about Mance and Stannis.

[Themongrel]

It is pretty obvious the Manderlys will not willingly fight for the Boltons against Stannis. Manderly sent Davos to get Rickon, and if he comes back Manderly offered support to Stannis. So fighting him now would kind of wreck that plan. Also, there is the Frey Pies. No Manderly lives will be put on the line in defense of Boltons.

So when Roose sent out the Manderlys to fight Stannis, it is just simply not plausible that they would actually do it. They either withdrew to White Harbour, choosing neither side, or they joined Stannis.

I just forgot that the manderlys were sent out is all. Thanks for the update. I will have to reread that section of the book apparently.

[Hippocras]

Another totally left field potential author of the Pink Letter:

Littlefinger!

I know....it is a wild proposal. But on the other hand, whose style has it been throughout the series to provoke conflicts so he can take advantage of them? The Pink Letter is not obviously good for either one of Ramsay or Jon. If Jon marches on Winterfell with a wildling army, that isn't exactly a good thing for Ramsay, so why would he provoke it?

Littlefinger had a role in putting the Boltons in power in the North. Very possibly because long term he intended to take over the North himself.

Littlefinger does not want Jon to have any sort of ability to contest Sansa's claim or to support her against him.

Discuss.

[Sanset]

Another totally left field potential author of the Pink Letter:

Littlefinger!

Littlefinger being the author mirrors the letter that Cat received from Lysa in AGoT, so it's a good Idea to be considered! :) Besides, he really has a hatred for the Starks and he is scheming enough to plot something like that.

PS: I still think it was Stannis, by the way.

[Hippocras]

Littlefinger being the author mirrors the letter that Cat received from Lysa in AGoT, so it's a good Idea to be considered! :) Besides, he really has a hatred for the Starks and he is scheming enough to plot something like that. PS: I still think it was Stannis, by the way.

Well, if LF were involved, his style of course is never to do things himself. I wonder who his Northern collaborators might be if not the Boltons? Lady Dustin?

[Greymoon]

....I'm tempted to think the letter was an elaborate ploy involving Mel, Mance and Stannis. Stannis does not seem the type to plot, so whatever his involvement, I'd say he wasn't the master mind behind it... though, he probably sanctioned it because he needed Jon's cooperation.

The way I see this working is that Mance did indeed write and send the letter, but he did it on behalf of Stannis, and on the orders of Melisandre...and he might have gone over the top, because he doesn't like Jon. Mel knew that a raven would come, she warned Jon look at the sky, and come see me. This letter plays in her favor, it lends her words credit. She's been trying from the moment she arrived at the wall to get Jon to trust her.

As for Stannis, he wanted Jon to claim Winterfell, to rally the north. The letter also aims to do that, to force Jon's involvement in matters of the realm, to take the choice away from him. So in that sense, it plays in Stannis's favor....unsurprisingly, Stannis knew that the rumor of his death might spread...

What about Mance, then? Mance dislikes Jon and he makes no secret of it... he and Mel had a deal...his survival and his son's survival, and maybe Val too, against...something. He's basically bound to her, to obey her will... Melisandre assured Jon that Mance would not fail in his mission, that he could be trusted...It's probable that Mance could read, since he grew up at castle black. With him being at Winterfell, he was in the right place to send the letter, and knew all the required information to send it too.

So here is what I think happened: Melisandre told Stannis, that the only way Jon would join the war and rally widlings and northerners together, behind Stannis, was for him to believe Stannis was dead. For this to be 'believable' the rumors had to emerge during Stannis's campaign, while he was far away from the wall, and on his way to Winterfell. All Mel really had to do was to arranged for Mance to leave the wall so that he could send the letter.

And she did that.

[myufa]

Wow, what a great thread! A lot of things I have not considered.

So far I've seen four compelling theories for the pink letter:

1. Stannis wrote it

2. Asha wrote it

3. Mance wrote it

4. Ramsey wrote it

Hopefully GRRM will release some more sample chapters to feed our madness...

We can rule out Stannis and Asha because they wouldn't know about the wildling women. I think it's more likely Mance trying to raise the wildlings again. Say what you will about PJ he makes a great case for it.

[Ser Eric]

Asha can definitely be ruled out....because it makes no sense. There's so much we don't know about Mance that it's practically impossible to build a decent case for him writing the letter, so while I would hesitate to completely rule him, it's rather unlikely.

That leaves Ramsay and Stannis. There are holes in both theories that are tough to explain; the actual content if you assume it's Ramsay and certain bits of knowledge if it's Stannis. However, if you assume that Ramsay wrote the letter based on false information, partly provided by Stannis, then it all makes perfect sense.

[Hippocras]

....or an LF plant. Maybe the same one who left the box at the beginning for Catelyn.

LF has a history of doing things to provoke chaos. The Pink letter doesn't serve EITHER Stannis OR Ramsay well. So it is logical to consider a third party who wants to provoke war between the two. Who more than LF? He has Sansa, and he knows she longs for Winterfell (snow castle).

[Ser Eric]

....or an LF plant. Maybe the same one who left the box at the beginning for Catelyn.

LF has a history of doing things to provoke chaos. The Pink letter doesn't serve EITHER Stannis OR Ramsay well. So it is logical to consider a third party who wants to provoke war between the two. Who more than LF? He has Sansa, and he knows she longs for Winterfell (snow castle).

That would be way too complicated. It would require LF to have plants at both Winterfell and Castle Black and for them to interact. Just because LF has a history of sticking his nose into affairs is no reason to suspect him. The letter imo makes it quite clear that there was some exchange in information.

I believe that while certain information in the letter comes indirectly via Stannis (Wyman Manderley acts as the go between), Stannis had nothing do with the letter being drafted and written. The purpose of the letter, as I see it, is to draw Jon out to WF so any threat to Ramsay's lordship could be extinguished.

[Hippocras]

That would be way too complicated. It would require LF to have plants at both Winterfell and Castle Black and for them to interact. Just because LF has a history of sticking his nose into affairs is no reason to suspect him. The letter imo makes it quite clear that there was some exchange in information.

I believe that while certain information in the letter comes indirectly via Stannis (Wyman Manderley acts as the go between), Stannis had nothing do with the letter being drafted and written. The purpose of the letter, as I see it, is to draw Jon out to WF so any threat to Ramsay's lordship could be extinguished.

Not at all. He is a suspect to consider specifically because he has Sansa and is clearly planning some kind of move using her as a pawn. Setting Ramsay and Stannis against each other, and manipulating events at the Wall to Jon's detriment directly plays to his designs on the North via Sansa.

It is no more complicated than what he has already done, frankly.

[Ser Eric]

Not at all. He is a suspect to consider specifically because he has Sansa and is clearly planning some kind of move using her as a pawn. Setting Ramsay and Stannis against each other, and manipulating events at the Wall to Jon's detriment directly plays to his designs on the North via Sansa.

It is no more complicated than what he has already done, frankly.

What you are describing is ridiculously convoluted to pull off, even for LF, aside from lacking any sort of evidence supporting it. It would requite a LF plant at WF with access to the ravens. It would also require someone at CB with access to ravens. It's unworkable and beyond crackpot.

The Ramsay-Stannis combination on other hand is a lot easily explained with textual evidence backing it up.