Stannis Pink Letter Confirmed?

[bemused]

I think that Stannis probably will send 2 ravens - one to WF, and one to Jon. Everything he does at that point is a huge risk, but he has nothing to lose, and plenty to gain.

I think he'd try to take every possible precaution (such as writing to Jon as Ramsay) but I think he's smart enough to see his own situation.

His troops are frozen, exhausted and starving - and they will be facing troops that are rested and well-fed.

He's identified something in the topography that could be advantageous and he's encouraged that it's Hosteen Frey who will be leading the enemy.

He thinks he has a chance to win, but knows he still could lose, and if he wins, he still could die.

I don't see how anyone can think Ramsay would not be coming to try to retrieve "Arya" (and "Reek"). After the elaborate lengths Roose has gone to, to set up the deception, that seems like a no-brainer to me. Even if Roose knows the northmen have their doubts about her authenticity, he's never allowed them enough direct access to "Arya" to give her a chance to blow it, or break down. Roose would not risk himself to reclaim her (When does he, ever?), so of course, Ramsay will be coming.

If Ramsay thought the battle was won, he would continue on - not lose 3+ days by returning to WF first, when every day she's at large increases the chances of discovery.

So Stannis, knowing he could die, wanting his cause to continue on behalf of Shireen, knowing the lack of southward defences at CB, would take whatever chance he could , even a far-fetched one , to try to warn Jon about Ramsay.

[Hippocras]

The only way a particular raven can go anywhere other than where it was trained to go is if it is warged.

Bran would simply NOT warg a raven in order to bring such a letter to Jon. Nor would Bloodraven IMO. In other words, unless there is some other warg around, Stannis did not have the means to send a raven to the Wall. So he did not write the pink letter.

What he wrote was a deceptive letter to Winterfell faking his defeat and death, and someone there wrote to the Wall. the Pink Letter may be a forgery done by conspirators at the Wall, and based on the letter received from Winterfell, or it may be the actual letter that was sent. But Stannis did not write it. Stannis wrote to Winterfell, pretending to be from the Karstarks and saying he was defeated and dead.

[titanx5]

The only way a particular raven can go anywhere other than where it was trained to go is if it is warged.

Bran would simply NOT warg a raven in order to bring such a letter to Jon. Nor would Bloodraven IMO. In other words, unless there is some other warg around, Stannis did not have the means to send a raven to the Wall. So he did not write the pink letter.

He wrote a deceptive letter to Winterfell faking his defeat and death, and someone there wrote to the Wall. the Pink Letter may be a forgery done by conspirators at the Wall, and based on the letter received from Winterfell, or it may be the actual letter that was sent. But Stannis did not write it. Stannis wrote to Winterfell, pretending to be from the Karstarks and saying he was defeated and dead.

Completely Agree! not only that but the language used gives me doubts, Stannis wouldnt do that, plus dont know if Stannis knows Mance is alive. The only one who has all the 'info' is Ramsay or Mance, obviously this is incorrect info. Also Stannis wouldnt want Jon coming South as it also leaves his wife and daughter unprotected, yes they have some queensmen but Stannis would want the wall and his family protected

[Phonzadellika]

My view:

(1) The TWOW preview "Theon" chapter dates to BEFORE Jon's final chapter from ADWD - not all the timelines are advancing equally.

(2) The "Theon" chapter should therefore logically have been in ADWD, not TWOW, but it would have robbed Jon's last ADWD chapter of much of its impact if we, the readers, knew or guessed that Stannis was going to attempt a trick like faking his own death.

(3) Therefore GRRM, for literary purposes, had to tell part of the story ahead of another part (Tolkien does the same in Lord of the Rings).

So...

At the writing of the "Theon" chapter, Stannis was alive. He is giving instructions that involve preparing for his reported death: instructions which state that it "may even" be true, implying that this is however NOT the intention - Stannis knows there is a chance of being falsely reported dead, and may even be counting on this.

He "does not know" Ramsay, as Theon points out. He does not even know Ramsay's real face, and Ramsay has used disguise as part of his treachery before.

However, as Stannis points out in return, "No more than he knows me". Ramsay does not know Stannis - he does not know him to look at, and Stannis believes that Ramsay will also not know how Stannis is thinking.

The number of armies coming to meet Stannis is two, not three: the Freys and the Manderlys. Theon rates Ramsay as the greatest threat of all: but Ramsay has no army, and even if he had an army, no military expertise. His only victories in battle have come by treachery - the betrayal of Rodrik Cassel in the battle outside Winterfell, and the sacking of Winterfell itself in which he massively outnumbered the half-dozen remaining ironmen and had only civilians to slaughter. Therefore, Ramsay would be stupid to attempt to meet Stannis with an army: so either he is coming to attempt some treachery, or he is not coming at all.

But how could Ramsay get into Stannis's camp by treachery? As a single man, coming on his own, he would be taken and questioned, and probably recognised by Theon. His only hope is to sneak in with a large number of defecting soldiers, and hope that Stannis cannot personally check and interrogate every one separately (since he knows that if Theon has reached Stannis, then Theon may even assist Stannis in forcing Ramsay to show his face, and point him out.)

The Freys have no hope of defecting - they will be slaughtered to the last man even if they try to surrender, their only hope is to win in battle, and I think they will not even *reach* Stannis, Roose has sent them out to die, to rid himself of some thousands of useless mouths whose presence divides his forces. Therefore Ramsay is with the Manderlys - who are, in fact, entirely free to defect, even though Wyman is left behind: Wyman is useless as a hostage against the behaviour of his son, because if Wyman dies, Wylis is alive and free and becomes the new Lord Manderly. (This is why a son should be kept as hostage against the father, rather than the other way around. Greatjon Umber's captivity at the Twins is also useless to the Freys, since his other under-age sons are safe under the guardianship of Mors, who has no sons of his own and therefore no motive to supplant the Greatjon's line.) Wylis, moreover, is in on Wyman's plans, and knows where Davos has been sent: and will thus be able to talk his way into Stannis's good graces (a thing Ramsay does not know, but which will fit in with his plans to get into Stannis's camp as a defecting Manderly soldier after the slaughter of the Frey army.)

Stannis, unfortunately for Ramsay - and forewarned by Theon that Ramsay is more dangerous even with no army than the Manderlys or Freys with one - is expecting some kind of treachery from Ramsay, and is surely intelligent enough to have worked out this far, that Ramsay's only way into the camp is as a defecting Manderly soldier. However, they will be in numbers too great to all be given more than a cursory search. And since Stannis still wants the numbers, he cannot simply reject the Manderlys and slaughter the lot to let the gods sort it out (losing more of his own men in the process, and having even less chance of getting into Winterfell.) So he needs a plan to smoke out Ramsay from his disguise or hiding place, in which Ramsay will be tricked into revealing *himself*.

Stannis may have learned a few things himself from Melisandre about "glamour" in the changing of appearance - or prepared them before he went, with her assistance - or he may achieve it by more mundane means of finding a lord who most resembles him and can copy his manners and style, wear the crown, wield the red sword and generally act well enough to convince someone who has been told what the real Stannis looks like but has never seen him in person. Anyway, the idea, presumably with the consent of the man in question, is to set him up as the target for an assassination attempt, and keep watch from the sidelines hoping to foil it. At least, that's as far as the impostor knows. Stannis may or may not be thinking a good deal further than that.

- If Ramsay tries to kill the impostor, and fails, and is captured or killed, then the treachery is uncovered. Ramsay dies at once. Stannis and his army still have to besiege and take Winterfell the hard way, and Roose still has both the numbers and the position against him: however he has a chance.

- If Ramsay *succeeds* in killing the impostor - possibly stealing the red sword Lightbringer as well - then this is in fact best of all worlds for Stannis. Ramsay escapes back to Winterfell, with the aid of what he believes to be his own supporters in the camp - the Karstarks. Ramsay believes he has killed Stannis and taken Lightbringer, and can write the Pink Letter believing it to be true. BUT, the Karstark soldiers are Stannis's own northern supporters wearing Karstark colours, ready to open the Winterfell gates from the inside when the real Stannis comes calling.

- If Ramsay tries to kill the impostor and fails, but escapes, then he is uncovered: his value as a traitor and master of disguise is useless since enough people will get a look at him. Same scenario as above, except Ramsay will be with Roose in Winterfell when the siege happens. It may therefore be necessary for Ramsay to be "allowed" to "escape" after a failed assassination attempt - or possibly even "rescued" by the "Karstarks" - so that Stannis can get himself some fake "Karstark" supporters in Winterfell ready to open the gates when he arrives.

So, my guess is that's exactly what has happened: Stannis, through use of an impostor using either disguise or glamour, has faked his own assassination, allowed Lightbringer to be stolen, and allowed much of his army to enter Winterfell disguised as Karstarks, while he himself directs the remainder pursuing Ramsay at a safe distance, and Ramsay has fallen for it, hook, line and sinker and written the Pink Letter: and the Boltons are about to experience a swift and total reversal of fortunes (especially if, having finally "killed Stannis", Ramsay also finally loses patience and murders his father to take over the North himself.)

Bran wants Stannis to bring Theon before the heart tree in order to tell Theon how to sneak inside Winterfell (IIRC Bran in his first chapter knew a secret way inside Winterfell that even Maester Luwin did not know about) so that Theon can help sneak Stannis in.

Stannis' force will be disguised as Freys, for sure, but there will also be an elite team inside of Winterfell to cut down everyone else.

[Jon Flow]

Here.. let me clear this all up. *PINK LETTER* Pink! Obviously written by Sansa. Case closed.

[bemused]

The only way a particular raven can go anywhere other than where it was trained to go is if it is warged.

Bran would simply NOT warg a raven in order to bring such a letter to Jon. Nor would Bloodraven IMO. In other words, unless there is some other warg around, Stannis did not have the means to send a raven to the Wall. So he did not write the pink letter.

What he wrote was a deceptive letter to Winterfell faking his defeat and death, and someone there wrote to the Wall. the Pink Letter may be a forgery done by conspirators at the Wall, and based on the letter received from Winterfell, or it may be the actual letter that was sent. But Stannis did not write it. Stannis wrote to Winterfell, pretending to be from the Karstarks and saying he was defeated and dead.

Of course Bran or Boodraven would skinchange a raven to take a warning to Jon of an impending attack. Why wouldn't they ? I think they would be in agreement with Stannis- that Jon needs to defend the Wall from all comers - and they may have specific knowledge of any magic-related reasons (unknown to Stannis), as well as possible knowledge of the content of Robb's "will". ... So to just say 'they would not' (NOT..?) comes nowhere close to convincing me.

Would Bran not care that his "brother" was in danger ? Don't you think Bloodraven already did his best to make sure Jon was elected LC ... both in having Coldhands make Sam promise not to tell Jon about Bran and in the case of the raven in the kettle? It's inconceivable to me that they'd just sit by and let Jon's survival and possibly, therefore, the integrity of the Wall be at the mercy of a surprise attack from the south.

Stannis has 2 ravens . Why would he only use one ,when he can put two to good use ? .. And some of you keep ignoring the fact that I'm not saying that such a letter as Jon recieved would be written by Stannis... I think he would have written something considerably different , but that it was intercepted and forged to take it's final form by the would-be assassins. (Bowen,Thorne, etc.)

Mind you, I think they would do the same if the letter came from WF.. If the letter came from Winterfell, then I think that Mance would have sent it, since I don't think either Ramsay or Roose would give warning ,and no other letter written by Ramsay has ever actually sounded like this..(so much like Thorne)... having said that, I think the sending of it would present many more problems, logistically, for Mance than for Stannis.

[Hippocras]

The letter is not a warning, and if that was all it was Bran or Bloodraven would simply caw it directly from the raven's mouth. If the ravens can say "Tree!" then they can just as easily say "Attack". Bran and Bloodraven would also be far more likely to use other means such as Ghost or dreams, so they have zero need to behave as you propose they do in this case.

The letter is simply not what you are saying it is. It is misinformation, signals to conspirators, emotional manipulation, and threats. It is NOT a warning.

[bemused]

Well, only time will tell.. but I think you're very wrong. One word warnings by Mormont's raven have not been well deciphered so far, by Jon or Mormont, and though I think Jon's dreams are being influenced, dreams are difficult to interpret. Jon has not fully developed his bond with Ghost, yet, nor do we know if Ghost can pass messages , or if Jon would have to be in the field with him and become aware of watchers ( or say, scouts) as Bran does with Summer. They do have need of a breakthrough in communication.

In an impending emergency, I think they would use whatever method was available and as many methods as possible. I think they would want Stannis to warn Jon, but they'd have no control over what he wrote , or whatever subterfuge he thought was necessary to serve his battle plan.

To serve his plan it must contain misinformation in regard to his death ( a precaution). Otherwise, it gives Jon a heads-up about Mance, about "Arya" being on her way, and most importantly, about Ramsay being on his way after her. (It's a repeat of the Alys Karstark situation on a deadlier scale).. The threats and attempted manipulation are added by the conspirators - by forging and adapting the letter to suit their plans.

But it appears we could go on saying , No, it's NOT a warning .. Yes, it IS a warning ,until the cows come home.. I think we'll just have to respectfully disagree.

[The Drunkard]

But if Stannis didn't write it, then what is he doing with the blood and the quill pen?

Other than signing the Iron Bank contract?

His writing utensils aren't brought up ever again after he sends Tycho away, I'm not sure what reason there is to believe they hold a secret meaning.

[Mithras]

Inkpots told Tyrion that blood is not a good material for writing.

The first letter sent to Jon by Ramsay was written with blood (brown ink). It could easily be brushed away because it came in flakes.

George didnot specify whether the PL was written by ink or blood.

I think all this information is given for some purpose.

A letter written by blood can easily be tampered because one can erase the words and obtain an empty page with signs.

[Hippocras]

IMO it doesn't much matter if it was written in blood. Ramsay uses skin if he has some available, and he said in the letter he had flayed Mance. Yet no skin.

Bemused:

It is not just a question of a juvenile "yes it is" "no it is not" spat.

The letter, if it was supposed to be a warning, very clearly was not written in a way that communicated effectively with Jon. It is intended to provoke an EMOTIONAL reaction, not a RATIONAL one. A warning would give the information needed to act without provoking risky behaviour by raising passions. If Stannis wanted to warn Jon, he would not do it in a way virtually guaranteed to cause complete and utter chaos at the Wall.

Think about it:

1. Revealing Mance is alive is a sure way to make many members of the Watch angry. Saying Jon had a role in that is guaranteed to cause him problems. There is absolutely no reason to say anything like that in a warning letter.

2. Mentioning Arya, fine, but if Stannis simply wanted to warn Jon to go out to protect Arya before Ramsay caught her, he would not do it in such a way that it would provoke Jon to bring a full army with him. A Small rescue force would be more appropriate.

3. If he wanted to warn Jon that Ramsay would attack the Wall, he would do it in a way that communicated the Wall was under threat.

There is simply nothing in that letter that is constructed in such a way that it is remotely reasonable to interpret it as a warning. If it was a warning it is the stupidest, sloppiest possible example of one and Stannis is not a stupid or sloppy man.

[fassreiter]

Inkpots told Tyrion that blood is not a good material for writing.

The first letter sent to Jon by Ramsay was written with blood (brown ink). It could easily be brushed away because it came in flakes.

George didnot specify whether the PL was written by ink or blood.

I think all this information is given for some purpose.

A letter written by blood can easily be tampered because one can erase the words and obtain an empty page with signs.

Nah, this cannot be the reason. The letter is apparently made from parchment, which means any writing (be it in ink oder in blood) can be erased quite easily and the parchment can be used anew. You don't need blood for that, you can simply scrape off any writing. Also I don't think blood would flake off completely without leaving a trace, so you would need to scrape the parchment anyway. However, if you went to such lengths, you could also just go ahead and fake the whole things, sealing wax and all (since there is no actual seal). I don't think there is any special significance in this.

[starwalker]

At the very least, GRRM wants us to consider that Stannis might have influenced the letter.

Why?

- Comments to Massey - even if you hear rumours of my death.

- Stannis's capture of ravens for Winterfell from Karstark traitors. ie. he had ravens.

What I think happened is this:

Stannis did not write the pink letter, Ramsay did.

But Ramsay wrote it based of false information. Stannis faked his death by sending a raven pretending to be from the Karstarks declaring that Stannis was defeated.

As for Mance, I don't know how much of an ally he actually is. Stannis may be fine with it if Mance never made it out of Winterfell. But assuming for some reason he does care - then the bit about flaying Mance and the spearwives remains a bit of a mystery. Hard to tell the truth of it.

this is a good point. Stannis is known to be a wily commander, so spreading disinformation would be a good strategy. But so much of the Bastard letter(i'll call it that, since pink letter annoys me. Srsly, its like any kind of scandal has to be called something-gate, cuz of watergate, and everything in ASOIAF must be referenced with a color, just cuz of the red wedding. Dont contribute to the dumbing down of America) just reeks of falsehood. Also, the tone of it seems to be in character of afrothing, mad dog, which fits Ramsay perfectly. I personally think Mance is playing them all to get his wildling army back, and ignorant Jon Snow just blindly goes along. He really knows nothing.

[fassreiter]

IMO it doesn't much matter if it was written in blood. Ramsay uses skin if he has some available, and he said in the letter he had flayed Mance. Yet no skin.

He said he had flayed the spearwives, not Mance. Anyway, I don't think he needs to send any skin to make his point because Jon was not emotionally attached to the wildling women (contrary to Asha, who is attached to Theon, and contrary to Catelyn, who was attached to her children and was sent physical evicence of revenge as a means to make her Bolton's ally). It is not as if Ramsay would always send a piece of skin with his letters (the invitation to the wedding did not contain any).

Otherwise, I completely agree with you; if the letter was a warning, the person who wrote it would have chosen different words, words Jon could actually decipher (Jon evidently did not decipher the pink letter, which might be due to the fact that it was not a warning after all). Or, if a code was needed, the person who wrote the letter would have chosen a completely diferent code, a code that would not incriminate everyone involved if the letter was obtained by Ramsay's people (against which possibility the code would have been needed in the first place). So there is no way this is a coded letter.

The idea that someone tampered with some version of some different letter is not very likely. Where did the relevant information come from? What is the point even? And how would anyone be able to explain this convoluted plot in a fashion that is still readable? I don't want to find any diagrams in TWOW which are needed to explain which were the original words and what was made of them and why and how.

And again: There is no actual discrepancy to the way Ramsay communicates, thinks and talks. We just have to keep in mind that he is expecting Jon to know that fArya is not his sister as soon as he sees her. He doesn't know that Jon never met fArya and he doesn't know about the wildling army (neither does Mance; he left before Val left to get Tormund). In my opinion, the letter is an attempt to scare Jon into keeping quiet about fake Arya and into letting Ramsay keep Winterfell. Ramsay did not really mean to attack Castle Black (not if absolutely necessary) and he has no idea that Jon would be seriously pissed off about his sister - simply because he knew Jeyne is not Jon's sister. Too bad for him that Stannis interfered and prevented Jeyne from reaching Castle Black. Just because Jon was all riled up and ready to march does not mean that Ramsay meant for him to do that - Ramsay probably meant for Jon to sit back, send off fake Arya and the hostages, and hope that Ramsay would keep quiet about Mance being alive and in league with the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

[Monctonvike]

Here.. let me clear this all up. *PINK LETTER* Pink! Obviously written by Sansa. Case closed.

Naw GRRM wrote it! aka Macumber ( I know a show reference shoot me lol)

[bemused]

Hippocras...It seems to me that you don't understand what I'm saying. I've repeatedly said that I think the letter Stannis writes is different by the time Jon receives it. I'll demonstrate the kind of thing I mean, but a few salient points , first-

I agree that it doesn't matter, to the physical process of writing and sending the letter, that Stannis signs Tycho's agreement in blood. I think the whole purpose of the signing is a hint to us to make a mental connection between Stannis and Ramsay - Stannis is physically writing as Ramsay would write (Lets face it, it would only have taken a few moments to thaw his ink.) ... and at CB, the maester's quarters would have a supply of parchment.. no need to brush away anything written in blood for re-use.

Believe me, I have given this a lot of thought.

1. I think Stannis probably tried to place all the blame for Mance's survival on himself (but this was changed by Thorne/Marsh). Stannis would not think that Jon would read the letter aloud to all and sundry. Stannis doesn't, with his own letters, he insists they be brought to him unopened. Neither does Jon, normally; he shares the contents of the "wedding invitation" only after having been asked if the men may know what it says. Everything in that letter would become common knowledge, shortly. The conspirators would not assume he would read it aloud, either... but the letter would provide black and white proof that Jon was complicit in sparing Mance, to hold up in their defence, after they killed Jon.

2. & 3. Stannis doesn't try to provoke Jon "to bring a full army", Stannis doesn't even know Jon can raise any kind of army (nor would Ramsay or Mance)... He only knows of the NW plus 300 wildling fighters and whatever men he left with Selyse (He may not think all of those would follow Jon's orders ,or know whether all the wildling fighters were actually at CB .. Jon was trying to re-open the abandoned castles) .. But Stannis could possibly have a reasonable idea of how many men Ramsay would have with him... and CB would be very vulnerable if no-one knew Ramsay is coming. Of course, Stannis would know there was no need to spell all that out to Jon. Jon recently held the wall against just such an attack (which would have been disastrous without Jon's own warning.) Stannis and Jon have discussed strategy together - Stannis knows that Jon will read the warning between the lines.

I think Stannis would have written something like this :

Your false king is dead, He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red witch.

Your false king lied. He told the world he burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead he sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back.

I have Mance Rayder in a cage for all the north to see.The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back and I want my Reek. (and maybe..) Do not keep them from me.

(* Optional : Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell ...

and... Keep them from me, and I will cut out your heart and eat it. )

The part about Mance is no more than what Theon might have predicted would happen.

Now here is what we know Jon received, with proposed forged additions and changes marked in red:

Bastard

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess.

I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

The one character who has repeatedly tried to goad Jon into an emotional response is Thorne (and he's had some success with it). .. Mance's use of "bastard", for example, differs, in that it seems founded in sarcasm over Jon's ..“Did you see where they put the bastard?” .. and the late Slynt's diatribes, .. while fed by Thorne, were full of false righteous indignation.... given more to impress others, than goad Jon (I will not suffer such-and-such.. etc). The Boltons don't know Jon and would have no reason to think he'd be certain to respond to such baiting. He didn't have the reputation of being a hothead while growing up at WF.

For what I've called the optional lines, I don't think Stannis would claim " Your false king's friends are dead, etc." , which would seem to refer to the clans (but it wouldn't change much if he did use it)... From the conspirator's point of view, it might help to excuse the conspirators and to turn the clans against Jon (alive or dead), since Jon recommended Stannis try to enlist them.

I don't know, either, that Stannis would have made the threat about cutting out and eating Jon's heart, because apart from using "bastard's heart", it's a fairly common form of (usually) empty threat, used for emphasis ... like Cotter Pyke's, after the election - “Lord Snow,” said Cotter Pyke, “if you muck this up, I’m going to rip your liver out and eat it raw with onions.”

My feeling is that Stannis will not be killed in the battle, which means that he is the most likely to tell Jon to verify his "death" with Mel.

Fassreiter.. No diagrams are necessary..you just have to follow the sense and use of the language (we know GRRM frequently plays with language). For example, in the TWoW Theon chapter, we read... Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek. We know Theon is right, and those are the two people Ramsay wants most. The letter Jon receives reads like the two statements are split and used as bookends, with all the extra hostages sandwiched in the middle... but I fully expect that at some point early on in the TWoW northern story line, the original letter will be produced, or the original author will reveal what he said, or someone privy to a forgery will confess.

What the conspirators at the wall know and what they want re: the hostages, is all that is needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge for both Mance or Stannis.

Apart from the fact that either Mance or Stannis would probably have to disguise himself as Ramsay in the letter, there's no code except, probably, in the 7 days of battle , which even Ramsay would know would be a pretty unbelievable claim. The rest is reading between the lines..

I think it's very premature to say Jon did not decipher the letter. He doesn't say he thinks the letter is true, just that "there is truth in there". No matter what he says to rally the free folk, he obviously doesn't think Ramsay is waiting in Winterfell for his reply, because we read... I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me.

That looks as if he's not thinking he'll actually have to march to Winterfell to make Ramsay "answer for those words" and he does feel he's received warning ( intentionally or not) that Ramsay is on his way north. ... I highly doubt it would take the better part of two hours to decide on leadership for the Hardhome mission (or the route for it to follow.. Jon had already thought that from Eastwatch along the coast would be easiest / quickest) ... So there's probably much more to what Jon was able to decipher than we have been priviledged to know.

[Hippocras]

bemused -

Sorry, but it feels like extreme logical stretching. There is simply nothing in the books that suggests a letter was received but tampered with. If the Watch conspirators wanted to do a fake letter they would just do a fake letter. And if they did tamper with one, there is nothing that says the original had to come from Stannis. After all, the letter mentions things that Stannis has no way of knowing (if true).

As for Mance, the fact remains that until the letter, the Watch did not have the slightest clue that Mance was alive. Stannis had nothing to "explain" or "blame himself" for, he simply had to keep his own secret to keep Jon safe if that was what he wanted to do. So if Thorne and buddies tampered a letter from Stannis as you claim, they were doing it based on information that Stannis had absolutely no reason to reveal (That is, if motivated by a desire to warn).

Therefore I maintain: The letter was NOT a warning to Jon. The information it contained, because it included Mance being alive in the first place, was very obviously a PROBLEM for Jon.

That does not exclude it being from Stannis for an entirely different reason, but for reasons already mentioned above I consider that unlikely.

Some alternative possibilities:

1. Stannis THOUGHT he was writing to Winterfell, because the Karstarks mislead him about the ravens' destination. The reason the Karstarks had ravens for the Wall had something to do with Cregan being prisonner there. This would create a context where information intended for the Boltons inside Winterfell reached the wrong eyes.

2. Stannis did in fact write to Winterfell, not the Wall. Whatever he wrote provoked a pivotal moment inside Winterfell that caused Ramsay to employ desperate tactics, including the Pink Letter.

3. Stannis captured Winterfell and THEN wrote the letter, having gained access to ravens for the Wall. However his intent was NOT to warn, but to provoke the most emotional reaction possible and to inflame passions among the wildlings. The goal in this case was to incite them to leave the Wall to fight Ramsay.

[TheWhiteRabbit]

Here's some objections I have to what's been written so far..

I think it wrong to ignore the hints we've been given that would suggest Bran or Bloodraven could fly one of the Winterfell ravens to Castle Black.

1) We see that they can inhabit pretty well any raven they choose, and switch from one raven to another.

2) BR is probably certain to be inhabiting Mormont's raven, which follows both Mormont and then Jon well away from the wall, and seems to act under someone's direction at Jon's election (unless you think it was in the kettle by coincidence). This suggests BR and Bran can fly a raven where they want it to go. ( We've seen ravens possibly following Arya and Sam ,as well.)

3) Bran has been watching developments through the WF heart tree (and would have seen Theon's conversations with the spearwives just before the escape).

4) There are many ravens in WF, and there was a raven pecking at the corpse of one of the sacrificed men just before Theon and Jeyne were brought to Stannis' camp.

5) This raven could have overseen and evesdropped on any conversations Asha may have had with Alysanne or any other northerner after Theon was taken to Stannis... and could have come into reasonably close proximity with Tybald's ravens when they were taken to Stannis.

So I think to assume those ravens can only fly to WF is disregarding a distinct possibility... Bran is not supposed to be able to communicate at all through the trees, either... And until this TWOW Theon chapter, we haven't seen ravens other than Mormont's raven that are able to spontaneously utter words that relate to conversations going on around them... Now we see two doing it at once (but we know that Bran is considered to have very great natural /magical ability)..

Of course Stannis would not want to cause chaos at the wall, but he can't be aware of the potential for chaos. Stannis doesn't know about all Tormund's people coming through the wall. (And neither do Mance, Ramsay or Roose.) Stannis could know about the ships sent to Hardhome, but not any further plans. (Jon doesn't hear from Cotter Pyke until Alys and Sigorn's wedding feast, and Tyco had already left the wall.)

It's true that the content of the letter poses problems for each of the candidates for author. But I think that the letter has been intercepted by the conspirators against Jon and altered / forged / added to. Then the content of the letter makes more sense. They do want all those "hostages" sent away from the wall, they do want to cause problems for Jon, make him seem responsible for sparing Mance , goad him into leading the NW against Winterfell, etc ... hopefully,to try to provide some excusability for themselves ,following their planned assassination.

I'm sure assassination was their plan , but they didn't plan to have to do it when they did. Jon threw a spanner in their works by deciding to take only wildlings to confront Ramsay. ( and no, I don't think he was actually going to go to WF, but intercept Ramsay on his way to CB)

I haven't considered this possibility, but it now seems extremely plausible to me. The original letter most likely written by Ramsey or possibly Mance was intercepted by Jon's enemies at the Wall and re-written in an attempt to illicit a certain response (which it appears Jon did fall for) and give them cover in their assassination.

[Hippocras]

I haven't considered this possibility, but it now seems extremely plausible to me. The original letter most likely written by Ramsey or possibly Mance was intercepted by Jon's enemies at the Wall and re-written in an attempt to illicit a certain response (which it appears Jon did fall for) and give them cover in their assassination.

It is a possibility to consider only so long as you acknowledge the problem with it as well.

Stannis, based on the text, had ravens for Winterfell and not the Wall.

So for Stannis to get a letter to the Wall requires its own supporting theory, and it will in all cases be one that is 100% speculation without the slightest bit of text to back it up.

It is therefore not a proposal worth betting on over any other.

[Tyler Stark]

The letter was written by Mance, Mance is the only one with all the required information. He has gotten to know Ramsey through rumors that are being spread around Winterfell and that is how he wrote it as Ramsey himself, he slips up in this façade by using the word "bastard" which is what he called Jon and the Bastard of Bolten wouldn't use this word he despises. He is the master of reading people and knowing about them, that is how he united all the wildings and became King beyond the Wall in the first place. He is writing this letter to insight Jon to do exactly what he intended on doing and bringing a Wildling army down to Winterfell to in order to Defeat the remnants of Roose's army in Winterfell. His intention being that he would try to hold Winterfell with his own Wildling army that Jon would have hand delivered to him.