Stannis Pink Letter Confirmed?

[yankee211]

To attacks Stannis's base, kill his wife and heir, get rid of Jon (who he doesn't know was stabbed) and get fArya back. And this would not take place after fighting Stannis, because either he would be escaping revolt inside Winterfell, or he would be assuming Stannis was defeated because Stannis gave him that impression through his false letter supposedly from the Karstarks.

I agree with your point in just attacking Stannis's base, but what is the point of sending the letter to Jon if the Boltons just attack Castle Black unawares. Jon is not a threat to them because he is a nights watchman.

[Hippocras]

I agree with your point in just attacking Stannis's base, but what is the point of sending the letter to Jon if the Boltons just attack Castle Black unawares. Jon is not a threat to them because he is a nights watchman.

A Watchman with power, who is a Stark. Unlike fArya, and who will recognize that fArya is not Arya the second he sees her. Since fArya was Ramsay's means of gaining legitimacy of rule in the North, her being shown to be fake would be a very big problem for him. She is on her way to Castle Black. Ramsay really does need to get her back or his power will collapse completely. He can't hold the North without her. Furthermore, Jon has the backing of the wildlings South of the Wall. In other words, he has a loyal army of people who are NOT watchmen.

[Ghosts Lunch]

where on earth is the popularity of this notion Ramsay will sneak into Stannis's camp coming from? Why would he? Sure, he is treacherous, but as legitimized title holder for Winterfell he has no need for such tactics. And who are these "defectors" he would hide with? The Karstarks were caught. Manderly's men would not hide him and DO know him.

It simply makes no sense.

I could see Ramsay sneaking away from Winterfell if things are going bad inside, but not to Stannis's camp. He would head to the Wall.

Yeah he adapted quite well when caught in AGoT and passed himself off as the original Reek, he then had the sense to pass of the Millers sons as Bran and Rickon

Issue here though is that Roose is calling the shots insofar as defensive strategy goes, so can't see him being part of some defecting Manderly forces

He did seem quite angry, and probably did kill Little Walder after being shown where the crypts were and realising Bran, Rickon et al were hiding there all the time and had left with Swords etc, so he may have his personal agenda which involves getting fArya, Reek and Jon Snow (to eliminate a safe haven for Bran and Rickon). I reckon he'll try the deceit trick again from ASOS because it has "worked before", but I reckon this time Stannis will have done it too so he'll kill the wrong person (the "just caution" man in Rooses armour a bit of a foreshadowing?) then they'll pounce on him

Stannis pretty much knows that under these circumstances he can't storm Winterfell via traditional means, he is up to something though, will probably have the northern clansman climb in on the sly

End of the day I think this is different from writing the letter, I think Mance still shades that argument, it reads more like a message to the Wildlings, eg his execution was fake etc etc, Mance's agenda is to bring his loyal Wildling army to him. In this case the Wildlings would be well suited to the conditions, similar to the northern clansmen

Have to remember Theon simply thinks Abel IS a Bard, and Mance has been near Ramsay enough to observe some of his behaviour

Question is, is Mance planning revenge on Stannis once Stannis has defeated Roose/Ramsay

[yankee211]

Yeah he adapted quite well when caught in AGoT and passed himself off as the original Reek, he then had the sense to pass of the Millers sons as Bran and Rickon

Issue here though is that Roose is calling the shots insofar as defensive strategy goes, so can't see him being part of some defecting Manderly forces

He did seem quite angry, and probably did kill Little Walder after being shown where the crypts were and realising Bran, Rickon et al were hiding there all the time and had left with Swords etc, so he may have his personal agenda which involves getting fArya, Reek and Jon Snow (to eliminate a safe haven for Bran and Rickon). I reckon he'll try the deceit trick again from ASOS because it has "worked before", but I reckon this time Stannis will have done it too so he'll kill the wrong person (the "just caution" man in Rooses armour a bit of a foreshadowing?) then they'll pounce on him

Stannis pretty much knows that under these circumstances he can't storm Winterfell via traditional means, he is up to something though, will probably have the northern clansman climb in on the sly

End of the day I think this is different from writing the letter, I think Mance still shades that argument, it reads more like a message to the Wildlings, eg his execution was fake etc etc, Mance's agenda is to bring his loyal Wildling army to him. In this case the Wildlings would be well suited to the conditions, similar to the northern clansmen

Have to remember Theon simply thinks Abel IS a Bard, and Mance has been near Ramsay enough to observe some of his behaviour

Question is, is Mance planning revenge on Stannis once Stannis has defeated Roose/Ramsay

Your right about Stannis, he even says that he is not Robert in where Robert could destroy the Boltons with his fighting prowess. So Stannis has to use other means to defeat Roose. The weather elements, covering his basis (arresting Arnolf), utilzing the ravens, and information from Theon. But if he ever finds out who Jayne really is, it would beneift him because he would have support of the entire north because the Boltons and Freys decieved them all.

[JLE]

I think that Ramsay may attempt to sneak into Stannis's camp for several reasons:

(1) Murdering Stannis will kill off the Northern resistance without having to fight a battle against a commander who is known to be extremely able in battle.

(2) He obviously can't just walk in to the camp himself, the ONLY way he will get in is in disguise as a defector.

(3) He will have a personal reason to want to find his bride and his Reek.

(4) He is already known for usage of disguise.

(5) He has a chance of success since neither Stannis nor anyone else in the camp knows what the real Ramsay looks like. (Unless Theon reaches Stannis and is allowed to live - a thing which, therefore, he must find out: Theon in Stannis's hands is potentially dangerous to the Boltons. Even if he doesn't kill Stannis he must kill Theon before Theon can talk further.)

Further evidence:

Theon believes that Ramsay will come for Stannis, NOT remain inside Winterfell. The Manderly and Frey armies are also coming: they are not under Ramsay's command, and neither is any threat to Stannis (the Freys because they are under a stupid commander, and in any case will be assaulted by the Manderlys before they even reach Stannis): and the Manderlys because, well, Wylis - who commands them, while Wyman is back in Winterfell - is on Stannis's side, and will surrender or defect at once.

Obviously Ramsay cannot approach Stannis openly: and it would be useless for him to attempt to do so with an army, since he does not HAVE an army of his own, and Stannis has the more defensible military position (assuming that Ramsay does NOT stay in Winterfell): so if Ramsay brings an army against Stannis for open battle, he will be crushed. Therefore, if he is coming at all, it is not to bring open battle. Therefore the only thing he can bring to the party is stealth, subterfuge, assassination, treachery.

He does NOT know that the Karstarks have been forestalled, and may believe that he will find assistance there.

[Hippocras]

I think that Ramsay may attempt to sneak into Stannis's camp for several reasons:

(1) Murdering Stannis will kill off the Northern resistance without having to fight a battle against a commander who is known to be extremely able in battle.

Well this really is not true, because the Northern resistance has absolutely nothing to do with Stannis. Opposition to rule by those involved with the Freys and the Red Wedding does not in any way imply they are loyal to or fighting for Stannis.

on point 2, We are already in agreement he would get in disguised if he wanted to get in at all, but I dispiuted two rather flawed assumptions: 1 that he wanted to get into the camp at all, and 2: that there are any "defectors" he could possibly hide among. He can't hide among men who know him and do not want him there. This goes for all of Manderly's forces, and meanwhile, the Karstarks were caught. So Ramsay simply can't sneak in as you propose.

You point about Theon believing Ramsay would come is interesting, but that is far from the only possible interpretation of the text. Theon never actually said he thought Ramsay would come. He simply said Ramsay was the most dangerous of the three opponents.

[The Drunkard]

Your right about Stannis, he even says that he is not Robert in where Robert could destroy the Boltons with his fighting prowess.

His comment is clearly a sarcastic one. He's mocking Robert's ridiculous reputation.

Well this really is not true, because the Northern resistance has absolutely nothing to do with Stannis.

It has everything to do with Stannis. Until he came along the mountain clans were doing absolutely nothing, the remnants of Rodrik's army were milling about the Wolfswood, the Mormonts were lurking on a beach somewhere, the Glovers were out of a castle, and the fisherfolk, hillmen, crofters, displaced villagers, etc, weren't fighting anyone. Stannis is the one that united these people and turned them into a force capable of ousting Roose.

[~No One~]

Question is, is Mance planning revenge on Stannis once Stannis has defeated Roose/Ramsay

I am of the opinion that Mance's sole purpose at the moment is to get his people through the Wall to safety. If he had any hand in writing the Pink Letter, it is to get Jon away from the Wall so the Wildlings can get through.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Mance isn't aware that Jon has let Tormund through with the bulk of his army, and made a deal with them regarding NW service, right?

I do not think that Mance wrote the Letter, but I could easily see him using/manipulating Ramsey for his own purposes to "lure" Jon away from the Wall for the benefit of his people. He may have revealed himself to Ramsey insofar as his identity, pretending to be against Jon for Ramsey's 'viewing pleasure', but only so Mance can get what he wants.

I also do not think that Mance wants to find the Horn of Joramun in the crypts, for example, because the last thing he wants is for the Wall to come down.

All this to say, I think Ramsey wrote the Letter with deceitful "help" from Mance. Stannis' line about "even if you hear I have died" [paraphrasing] can't be taken too literally, imo. His only concern is for the correct line of succession, which is himself, followed by Shireen. He wants to make sure Massey would be loyal to his daughter.

[Hippocras]

His comment is clearly a sarcastic one. He's mocking Robert's ridiculous reputation.

It has everything to do with Stannis. Until he came along the mountain clans were doing absolutely nothing, the remnants of Rodrik's army were milling about the Wolfswood, the Mormonts were lurking on a beach somewhere, the Glovers were out of a castle, and the fisherfolk, hillmen, crofters, displaced villagers, etc, weren't fighting anyone. Stannis is the one that united these people and turned them into a force capable of ousting Roose.

All that is its own form of resistance when they are in a weak position. All of them were actively NOT fighting for the Boltons, ie. - resisting them. They simply had no means left to fight the Boltons directly since their men were slaughtered. However you can bet they were all of them looking for ways.

Stannis is a WAY to fight, but he is not the REASON. Therefore without Stannis, the Boltons would still have resistance on their hands in some form.

[Hippocras]

No One

Mance knows Jon intended to bring the wildlings through, and he knows why - smaller wight army to then contend with.

[~No One~]

^Ah, ok, my memory was iffy on that point. Thanks for the clear-up Hippocras!

My belief of Mance's motives remain unchanged. I could see him having a hand in Ramsey's letter if he hadn't been aware of all Jon's plans, but now I think Ramsey is the sole author. What would Mance have to gain?

Stannis's best interests lie in Jon being at the Wall. That's his duty, plus his wife and his heir are under Jon's protection. Mance could still have a vested interest in Jon being away, but I can't resolve Stan's involvement. I also agree with the up-thread comments that his line about possibly dying isn't proof that he's planning on faking his death.

[The Drunkard]

All that is its own form of resistance when they are in a weak position. All of them were actively NOT fighting for the Boltons, ie. - resisting them. They simply had no means left to fight the Boltons directly since their men were slaughtered. However you can bet they were all of them looking for ways.

Stannis is a WAY to fight, but he is not the REASON. Therefore without Stannis, the Boltons would still have resistance on their hands in some form.

I'm not disputing they wanted to resist Roose (although claiming that 'not fighting for = fighting against' is quite silly) but that their resistance has "absolutely nothing to do with Stannis". Stannis is the reason these people are united and capable of defeating him. Before they weren't.

[Hippocras]

I'm not disputing they wanted to resist Roose (although claiming that 'not fighting for = fighting against' is quite silly) but that their resistance has "absolutely nothing to do with Stannis". Stannis is the reason these people are united and capable of defeating him. Before they weren't.

No, it is not silly. It is simply fact that when you do not have the strength for open warfare you use guerilla tactics. Resistance is lack of submission in any form, no matter what your limitations. There is plenty of evidence that these guerilla tactics were in use, from the Neck, to the Manderly fleet, to Lyana Mormont's letter.

[The Drunkard]

No, it is not silly. It is simply fact that when you do not have the strength for open warfare you use guerilla tactics. Resistance is lack of submission in any form, no matter what your limitations. There is plenty of evidence that these guerilla tactics were in use, from the Neck, to the Manderly fleet, to Lyana Mormont's letter.

Using guerilla tactics against the Boltons is resistance, but doing nothing? No, that isn't resistance. The mountain clans weren't fighting against the Boltons in any way, nor were the remnants of Rodrik's army, nor the displaced villagers, hillmen and crofters. Stannis is the reason these people are finally doing something, so the suggestion that their resistance has "absolutely nothing to do with Stannis" is indeed silly, regardless of any pro-North bleating.

[Hippocras]

Using guerilla tactics against the Boltons is resistance, but doing nothing? No, that isn't resistance. The mountain clans weren't fighting against the Boltons in any way, nor were the remnants of Rodrik's army, nor the displaced villagers, hillmen and crofters. Stannis is the reason these people are finally doing something, so the suggestion that their resistance has "absolutely nothing to do with Stannis" is indeed silly, regardless of any pro-North bleating.

You clearly have no idea how resistance actually works. Even Theon, in chains, with his skin and dick being peeled off was resisting, simply by refusing to accept submission. In the end, Ramsay's torture seemed to work but only on the surface. Theon was buried but not dead, and his resistance was on low simmer.

The Northerners are resisting simply by refusing to acknowledge Bolton rule. It is winter, their supplies and men are depleted, they don't know who to trust, so that makes it a quiet kind of resistance for the moment, mostly. Their main goal for now is simply surviving to fight later. But simple refusal to accept anyone other than Starks while regrouping IS, in fact, resistance. And in the long run it would, regardless of Stannis, have come back to bite the Boltons.

[sbdx80]

Wow, what a great thread! A lot of things I have not considered.

So far I've seen four compelling theories for the pink letter:

1. Stannis wrote it

2. Asha wrote it

3. Mance wrote it

4. Ramsey wrote it

Hopefully GRRM will release some more sample chapters to feed our madness...

[RedRahloo76]

I think we can rule Ramsey out as the author. If Stannis were dead, wouldnt Ramsey have found Reek?

[Hippocras]

I think we can rule Ramsey out as the author. If Stannis were dead, wouldnt Ramsey have found Reek?

No.

Because, if you actually read the thread, as already pointed out, Stannis very likely faked his death. The ravens Stannis had were trained for Winterfell, not the Wall. So Ramsay believing Stannis is dead is a very different thing from him actually being dead.

Ramsay, if he wrote the letter, THINKS that the armies sent out successfully defeated Stannis in large part through Karstark treachery. He thinks this because Stannis sent him a deliberately misleading raven.

What actually happened, is that the Frey army fell into traps set by Umbers, the Karstarks were caught before they could sabotage Stannis, and the Manderlys have zero intention of fighting Stannis so probably went home. Or somewhere else.

[Sanset]

Your post is disingenuous. Try learning to read, and maybe gaining some insight on resistance by looking into slavery resistance tactics and obstacles, anti-colonialism tactics and obstacles, etc.

Coordinated actions take time to build - left with no leadership the Northerners are at the stage of figuring out who to trust. The point I made, which you have been deliberately ignoring, is that Stannis is not the OBJECTIVE of their resistance. He is simply one means, and they have not yet decided if they trust him, just as they don't know which of their colleagues can be trusted. Rebuilding forces, networks, staying alive in harsh conditions and doing the groundwork for more open resistance is not the same thing as doing nothing.

Perhaps if you actually got off the couch and tried to genuinely fight for some cause for which the means of fighting is unclear you would get this; life is not an action movie and resistance takes a lot of legwork. Most of that is forming networks.

I don't know how to state it more clearly. Stannis is not the cause they are fighting for, regardless of whether or not they join him. Stannis is not the objective of their resistance to the Boltons. Because he is not the objective, the resistance would exist without him.

I agree, true resistance doesn't cut it for action movies. Resistance is a mind game, a patience game. Muscles, fireworks and flying-kicks ballet are not needed, even more, it is very contraindicated. It requires perseverance and focus. Northerners have this, as they have snow. They want the Starks.

I also think that Stannis doesn't need to be resisted since he's a Southerner. He has come and he will go (or die, as he wishes). I think Northerners are not worried about him. The Boltons are a different story. The Northerners didn't like them before the Red Wedding, they dislike them more now that they used southerner power to interfere Northerners affairs, and in the top of all, they're using fArya as Ramsay had used Wyman's cousin (Donella Hornwood). The Boltons went too far this time, they are cooked, it might be the soft and slow fire recipe of the resistance, but they have mustard, onions, carrots and celery all over them. And maybe no so metaphorically speaking. Northerners are not cute sweethearts like Sylvester and Tweety.

[Muggle]

One thing is clear. Ramsey did not write the PL. The hand writing is completely different. We have two previous letters by Ramsey to compare.

I think it was Mance