Shouldn't others have figured out R+L=J

[eyenon15]

People that fought on the side of the rebellion wouldn't want to say anything about a Targ claimant even if they suspected Jon was one.

as for everyone else? I guess little birds can't figure out everything .

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

(1) Remember, we still don't know the whole story, so it might all be more plausible once we do. Certain things don't make sense right now: Ned killed Arthur Dayne, and apparently caused Ashara's suicide (after either he or his brother got her pregnant) - but then the Daynes name the next Lord of Starfall after him? And Edric (Ned) Dayne seems to have nothing but respect for Eddard, in the way he approaches Arya? This doesn't make sense, we are missing something big.

The Daynes may be aware of a thing or two, and helped with the deception over Jon's parentage. I can't imagine the circumstances that would motivate them to agree to have Ashara remembered as the mother of Ned's bastard - but then, they're Dornish, bastards aren't as big of a deal, or at all. Perhaps they understood Ned's predicament and wanted to help; and they knew Ashara loved Ned; and the baby was the son of Arthur Dayne's closest friend; or perhaps he agreed to leave Ashara's daughter behind in Starfall to be raised as Allyria Dayne, in exchange for the Daynes agreeing to not contradict the story that Ashara was Jon's mother.

Whatever the arrangement was, the Daynes clearly still have a high regard for Ned, which is strange considering the facts we do have.

(2) This was war - bastards were even more common than in peace time, what with all the moving around, and the camp followers and pillaging. We have to understand that having a "natural son" wasn't an outrageous situation that would normally cause particular note; it was notable perhaps, but particularly in the confused times of a rebellion, not the biggest piece of news.

(3) Ned had to make a tough call: protect Jon, but also keep him close enough in memory of Lyanna. Presenting him to the world as his own bastard is almost like hiding him in plain sight. Ned uses his damaged honour as a shield for his deception: no one would believe an honourable man like Ned Stark would accept the daily reminder of his shame that Jon's presence at Winterfell surely is, unless Jon were truly his own son.

[sertravisredbeard]

People that fought on the side of the rebellion wouldn't want to say anything about a Targ claimant even if they suspected Jon was one.

as for everyone else? I guess little birds can't figure out everything .

Ned knew how dangerous those little birds could be. He immediately told Catelyn never to talk about it, and actively tried to find out who mentioned Jon's parentage and got them to be quiet also. Even Harwin, after Ned is dead, tells Arya not to ask her mother about it when she starts asking questions. It seems to me that Ned put on his most stern "Lord's face" when making sure no one mentioned or speculated about who Jon's mom was.

[Melisandre's White Pubes]

I am sure there are a lot of people who could have suspicions, if they felt those suspicions are safe. But consider this:

There are hundreds of people on this board who don't acknowledge the evidence for R+L=J. Lets compare them to the nobles of Westeros.

These people have access to far more evidence supporting the theory than 99.9% of the people in Westeros. These hundreds of people have access to the thoughts of people connected to the conspiracy to keep Jon Snow's heritage private. They are not less informed than the nobles of Westeros.

These people have less of a personal connection to these characters than the nobles of Westeros, so we know they aren't refusing to believe the evidence because they have a heartfelt loyalty to Robert, Ned, or Rhaegar.

These people have nothing tangible to lose for believing in the evidence, so we know they aren't refusing to believe that R+L=J because the consequences of that being true could hurt them.

Why do they not accept the evidence of R+L=J? Because they prefer another theory, for personal aesthetic reasons. They aren't backing M+L=J or E+L=J or whatever because the alternative is dangerous to them or because a different parentage for Jon would benefit them in any way other than giving them bragging rights.

So we see it takes very little motivation for a detached, impartial, very well informed modern person to reject R+L=J. Now look at what believing that theory would take for a noble of Westeros.

It would take putting together all these clues, small events and words said among all the happenings of a major rebellion, clues that were not compressed and tied together with internal symbolism in a book which hints at a secret. It would take believing that one of the most honest and noble men of Westeros is behind this successful conspiracy, which many people would not want to believe because of their loyalty to him. It would also require others to believe that one of the most noble men of the previous dynasty kidnapped and impregnated a young noble girl from a major house. Many of these people could have much to lose - a noble raised with a strong sense of honor might feel compelled to act on their suspicions if they allowed them to gel in their mind, even if he knew it could bring ruin upon his family. The "theory" they are backing is fundamental to maintaining peace and order and avoiding an even more complex succession crisis.

So to a noble that has his life tied into questions of succession and birthright, you are naturally going to be very skeptical of anything that alters the status quo. For instance, imagine there was actual credible evidence that Barack Obama was not born in Hawaii and was actually not qualified to be President (I don't believe this in the slightest but it's a comparable theory that many are familiar with). I know I would be extra skeptical of such evidence, because I would fear the disorder and real harm that could come to my family with it. Even if it looked credible, I would just think it was a very expensive hoax and believe any kind of weird conspiracy that explains it in a way other than the evidence being real. It would have to be crystal clear with tons of evidence for me to even consider it.

Or consider this, if you're thinking of nobles who might have something to gain from it. Let's say there was credible evidence that G.W. Bush and the Republican Party were actually behind 9/11. Again, I don't believe this in the slightest (though I do think the new administration was negligent ignoring the warnings from the Clinton state department, I don't think they were conspirators). However, even though making this proof public would discredit a faction that I usually oppose, which I blame a number of terrible things on, I think it could cause a constitutional crisis and put some parts of the country in open rebellion against the local or federal governments, and the cold rational part of me would say "Sadly, we have to let them get away with it to save the country" and I would continue to back the theory that it was done by OBL with no help from the USA. I think that same reasoning would come to mind among most nobles of Westeros who started to put 2 and 2 together and started to suspect.

[ICRYRAGE]

Ned pretty quickly after the war goes to Winterfell where he says out of sight other then when the Iron Islands rebel. He basically stays out of the politics of the realm. There are rumors in the north but he silences them pretty quickly. As for the rest of the realm there might have been rumors at first but since the north is so far away people would forget about it pretty soon. Overall though it is not worth risking a war just in case R+L=J. Because there is no real evidence and Jon physically looks more like Ned then his own children people dismiss any thoughts they might have. Once he is on the wall his is safe because he has given up any claim.
Tywin: Tywin overall is very clueless when it comes to this type of thing. He is very calculating politically and militarily but he does not really dabble with people's bedroom lives. Even if he did his only option would be to send a assassin to winterfell but it is not worth the political ramifications if the plan goes south.
Varys: He might suspect, he might even know but his cards are in another Targaryan basket so as long as Jon stays up north he has no issue with it.
Littlefinger: Now I think he is smart enough to come up with the idea, but then again the north is a long way out of his reach.
Stannis: Again the north is a long way away and he has a hard enough time trying to get his bother to like him, let alone telling Robert that Ned is a liar.
Robert: Robert suspects, that is why Ned has to lie to him and make up the Wylla story.
Overall though the reason people believe Ned Stark is because he is Ned Stark, he is known throughout the realm as a honest man, one of the few. So it is much more likely that Ned would have one single night of passion then betray is best friend by brining the son of his greatest enemy to the North and lie about it for 14 years.

[Arrow of the Morning]

Is common to a noble man have at least one bastard, especially after a war. And Ned was in the Tower of Joy, but he could stayed in much more places before and after he find the tower and only one people survived alongside Ned, so no one could tell when Jon was born or when Ned took him.

[The Snark of Winterfell]

Maybe a couple have figured it out, maybe Varys. Whatever Daynes that may or may not be alive. But, I dont think anyone gives a crap about a Northern bastard, definitely not anyone in KL. Bastards from war were common. Brandon was probably the Stark that everyone knew for most of his life, as BS was heir to Winterfell; Ned was raised in the secluded Vale and never expected to inherit WL, was probably set to inherit some castle in the North that no one south of the neck has heard of.

I know he was at the tourney at harrenhall, most lords have a solid opinion and seem to know him from what we read, but when he brought back Jon that was 15 years before he was the Warden of the North. The north is a secluded place and I think most of the realm consider it a weird place (old gods, cold) even more so than Dorne and definitely not a place to keep a vacation home. The Lannisters didn't visit the North till GoT, doubt most of the Southron Lords came either. And I may be wrong, but I thought the stark betrothal of Brandon/Ned to Cat was uncommon as the North tended to marry their own. Also Ned never paraded him around, tmk jon has never been south.

Really long way of saying I can buy no one giving a second thought to the younger Stark brother fathering a Northern bastard during a year long war campaign.

[Ygrain]

All details aside, honorable Ned Stark coming back from the Tower of Joy with a baby should have had some people guessing Lyanna had a child by Rhaegar. The small folk and highlords gossip shamelessly. If people can speculate Jon's mother is Ashara Dayne then why not Lyanna?

Which is never stated in the text, therefore the option that Ned did not travel with baby Jon is perfectly viable and solves many an issue. Lord Stark kills the KG guarding his sister who dies, anyway, and he makes a detour to Starfall. He then returns to the North, and some time in between or after, Jon is delivered to Winterfell. The first time most of the Westeros hear, Lord Stark has a bastard up there in the North whom he fathered on some wench during the war. Boooring.

[ThePosterThatWasPromised]

For me, the one kicker in the story that makes me agree that this is a major plot hole (I'm accepting R+L=J as incontrovertibly true) is that logic dictates that Ned must have acquired the child sometime between King's Landing and riding back ti Winterfell, where he only made two stops; the Tower of Joy and starfall. All it would take is for someone to piece together the timeline; that it couldn't possibly be Ashara's and then realize the likelihood he either meets a woman and drags her around with him while she carries his child or meets her again later on after she births his child is preposterous.

EDIT: I do think a lot of people don't care: but I figure Varys, at mminimum, could have figured it out, contacted Howland reed and used Jon in his plan SOMEHOW.

[Mithras]

Does any person in Westeros other than Howland and Ned know the existence of Tower of Joy, let alone that 3 KG were there with Lyanna?

As for the Lannisters (Cersei and probably Tywin too), they are sold to the theory N+A=J. It makes sense from their perspective.

[Ygrain]

For me, the one kicker in the story that makes me agree that this is a major plot hole (I'm accepting R+L=J as incontrovertibly true) is that logic dictates that Ned must have acquired the child sometime between King's Landing and riding back ti Winterfell, where he only made two stops; the Tower of Joy and starfall. All it would take is for someone to piece together the timeline; that it couldn't possibly be Ashara's and then realize the likelihood he either meets a woman and drags her around with him while she carries his child or meets her again later on after she births his child is preposterous.

EDIT: I do think a lot of people don't care: but I figure Varys, at mminimum, could have figured it out, contacted Howland reed and used Jon in his plan SOMEHOW.

And you know that how? We don't know which route Ned took from Starfall. We don't know if he went to KL first to report Lyanna's death to Robert (and given that it brought them to reconcile, a meeting is highly probable, and I doubt that Ned would have brought Jon with him, that would have been awkward).

Varys contacting HR is implausible. Greywatch is an inaccessible, hidden location, and even if Varys did manage to send one of his contacts there, why would HR tell him anything?

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Does any person in Westeros other than Howland and Ned know the existence of Tower of Joy, let alone that 3 KG were there with Lyanna?

As for the Lannisters (Cersei and probably Tywin too), they are sold to the theory N+A=J. It makes sense from their perspective.

Bran knows that Arthur Dayne would have killed Ned, if it hadn't been for Howland. Cat thinks to herself that the household whispered of Ned killing Arthur Dayne in single combat. And of course everyone knows Ned returned Arthur's sword to Starfall. The story got out that Ned fought at least one KG.

Although that may have been explained as a duel about Ashara's honour.

Still, if it's also known WHERE they fought, ie at the Tower of Joy where Lyanna also was, then questions should be asked.

Perhaps people were convinced by the fact that the KG were simply there on Rhaegar's orders and did not hear he had died or whatever.

[Knight Of Winter]

Its public knowledge Ned killed Dayne, Bran thinks about early on. Plus when Ned comes back and says Lyannas dead, I killed Dayne and oh, here's my bastard, someone must surely suspect something.

He knew eventually, especially since it was open knowledge he killed Arthur Dayne. Hell Cersei knew about this, so Tywin certainly did.

Yes, it's public knowledge that Ned killed Arthur Dayne sometimes somewhere after siege of KL, but nobody knows this occurred at TOJ.

[Mithras]

Bran knows that Arthur Dayne would have killed Ned, if it hadn't been for Howland. Cat thinks to herself that the household whispered of Ned killing Arthur Dayne in single combat. And of course everyone knows Ned returned Arthur's sword to Starfall. The story got out that Ned fought at least one KG.

Although that may have been explained as a duel about Ashara's honour.

Still, if it's also known WHERE they fought, ie at the Tower of Joy where Lyanna also was, then questions should be asked.

Perhaps people were convinced by the fact that the KG were simply there on Rhaegar's orders and did not hear he had died or whatever.

Yes, WHERE they fought is the mystery. Most people know that Ned hunted down the last rebels in the Dornish Mountains and found the missing KG there along with Lyanna's bones. They do not know the details.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Also, there's political reasons for 14 years to not look into this too deeply.

I wonder what version of the Rhaegar / Lyanna story was most widely believed at the time. Did everyone immediately assume a kidnapping, or was there doubt about the Baratheon version of events?

Supporters of Robert's cause agains Aerys (for whatever reason) would propagate the Baratheon/kidnapping story, because that's what Robert wants.

Maybe there was a degree of intentional forgetting of the details, once Robert won. Maybe some people knew a tidbit here and there about a different version of the story - but what could possibly be gained during a Baratheon reign by raising them?

So if whatever went on down there at the time is better treated as hush hush, for everyone's health, maybe those people who DID wonder about the "kidnapping" knew to leave well enough alone.

Politically crazy to try to do otherwise: turn the king's lost love, and the sister of his most loyal friend, into a willing participant in Rheagar's plot? Death by Robert twisting their heads off their shoulders for suggesting it.

[Mithras]

At one point, Ned lied and declared that the boy is his bastard son. People believed him for obvious reasons.

[SevasTra82]

I wonder if there actually is anyone that knows the truth? Or is it just Howland Reed?

Are we assuming that Rhaegar never confided in anyone?

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Are we assuming that Rhaegar never confided in anyone?

Fair assumption, in the circumstances. Best case scenario was that he wins at the Trident and then has to explain his second wife (?) to the realm, and another child. Best keep it simple until everything's settled.

He'd also be worried for Lyanna and the child's safety, just in case he did lose - he knew the child would be a target for Robert.

That's what logic dictates. The story might require him to have confided in someone at KL before he went to the Trident - but I'm not sure who that might be. No one likely comes to mind.

[SerBert]

The fact that Jon looked like Ned helped alot.

[SevasTra82]

Fair assumption, in the circumstances. Best case scenario was that he wins at the Trident and then has to explain his second wife (?) to the realm, and another child. Best keep it simple until everything's settled.

He'd also be worried for Lyanna and the child's safety, just in case he did lose - he knew the child would be a target for Robert.

That's what logic dictates. The story might require him to have confided in someone at KL before he went to the Trident - but I'm not sure who that might be. No one likely comes to mind.

Well, I would assume Arthur Dayne and Co. knew, but they are all dead now.

I dunno, It just seems to me like someone from Rhaegars camp would know something. I believe I read that Jon Connington was a good friend of Rhaegar, so there is a slight chance he may know something about the TOJ incident.

It's just hard for me to fathom that nobody from Rhaegars side was "tipped off" about Lyanna and her pregnancy. It's human nature to confide in people....perhaps Rhaegar confided in Arthur Dayne (his closest friend). But he's dead also. I'll find it hard to believe only Howland Reed knows about Lyanna and her child.