When Dany returns to Westeros will the Martells immediately declare loyalty?

[Darkstream]

I could see other houses in Dorne going against the Martells though. House Yronwood opposed them in previous Blackfyre rebellions. It would be an interesting switch if the Martells ended up fighting for a Blackfyre, and the Yronwoods for a Targaryen.

Interesting, I agree. It's ASOIAF, what's the chances of all the houses in Dorne agreeing like one big happy family. Everybody will be looking out for their own interests.

[Mithras]

Shit your right I forgot they have already started making plans to take Storms End...I think it's time for a re read

 

Spoiler from TWoW

 

[spoiler]They already took Storm's End by the time Arianne came to Cape Wrath. No one has ever done that before in the history of Westeros.[/spoiler]

[DMC]

I could see other houses in Dorne going against the Martells though. House Yronwood opposed them in previous Blackfyre rebellions. It would be an interesting switch if the Martells ended up fighting for a Blackfyre, and the Yronwoods for a Targaryen.

 

Considering Lord Yronwood's son died on Quentyn's quest, I don't think he's gonna be a big fan of Dany.  OTOH, he may blame Doran for the whole clusterfuck in general, but taking into account he essentially raised Quentyn, I don't see him as a Dany fan.  Maybe Arch could convince him otherwise.

[HappilyEverAfter]

They've taken most of the east coast of the Stormlands by the end of ADWD and still have another 5000 men on their way.  With every other major house except Arryn weakened from TWO5K (or a sojourn to Meereen), the Golden Company are a force to be reckoned with.  Especially if Dorne joins them.

That's assuming that the rest of the Golden Company find passage to Westeros and don't simply stick around on the Stepstones or return to Myr or get killed. And even if they do get all of their men back, Dorne + the Golden Company are going to take very heavy casualties against the Tyrells, who are also protecting/seiging Kings Landing and aren't going to join Aegon.

[DMC]

That's assuming that the rest of the Golden Company find passage to Westeros and don't simply stick around on the Stepstones or return to Myr or get killed. And even if they do get all of their men back, Dorne + the Golden Company are going to take very heavy casualties against the Tyrells, who are also protecting/seiging Kings Landing and aren't going to join Aegon.

 

Says you.  This argument is hand-tied by the spoiler Mithras mentioned.

[Mithras]

Considering Lord Yronwood's son died on Quentyn's quest, I don't think he's gonna be a big fan of Dany.  OTOH, he may blame Doran for the whole clusterfuck in general, but taking into account he essentially raised Quentyn, I don't see him as a Dany fan.  Maybe Arch could convince him otherwise.

 

He will blame the Martells for the clusterfuck including Quentyn's death.

[Mithras]

That's assuming that the rest of the Golden Company find passage to Westeros and don't simply stick around on the Stepstones or return to Myr or get killed. And even if they do get all of their men back, Dorne + the Golden Company are going to take very heavy casualties against the Tyrells, who are also protecting/seiging Kings Landing and aren't going to join Aegon.

 

Elephants and JonCon will make huge difference. It is heavily foreshadowed in Kevan's Epilogue that JonCon will kick Mace's ass big time.

[HappilyEverAfter]

^^^ Why would they join Aegon? Margarey's set to become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, what would they gain by joining team Aegon that is better than becoming royalty?

Also, Stannis took Storms' End and the majority of Renly's host sided with the Lannisters. Taking Storms End doesn't automatically give you the Tyrells.

[DMC]

It should also be noted Mathis Rowan, currently in command of the Reach forces at Storm's End, is probably the most likely candidate as a 'friend' to 'Aegon's' efforts, considering his overt disgust in ASOS when the Small Council discusses what happened to Elia's kids (i.e. Aegon).

[DMC]

^^^ Why would they join Aegon? Margarey's set to become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, what would they gain by joining team Aegon that is better than becoming royalty?

Also, Stannis took Storms' End and the majority of Renly's host sided with the Lannisters. Taking Storms End doesn't automatically give you the Tyrells.

 

1.  Margaery's current situation is tenuous at best, especially with Cersei unleashed with Kevan's death.

 

2.  The Tyrells do not have monolithic command over their forces.  Tarly and Rowan should be considered individual players in their own right.

[HappilyEverAfter]

Elephants and JonCon will make huge difference. It is heavily foreshadowed in Kevan's Epilogue that JonCon will kick Mace's ass big time.

Where, if I may ask? And even if Jon Con does, there's still the gold cloaks which, as was seen, can become 6000 strong while the Golden Company will lose men against the Tyrells and having to garrison their conquests.If Dorne join them, then the Dornish are going to have to go through numerous Tyrell and Marcher Lords to get to Kings Landing.

1.  Margaery's current situation is tenuous at best, especially with Cersei unleashed with Kevan's death.

Which is the point of Mace's army outside Kings Landing, to ensure that both Cersei and the Faith do nothing stupid like deposing Margarey, making her situation as Queen rather less tenuous.

It should also be noted Mathis Rowan, currently in command of the Reach forces at Storm's End, is probably the most likely candidate as a 'friend' to 'Aegon's' efforts, considering his overt disgust in ASOS when the Small Council discusses what happened to Elia's kids (i.e. Aegon).

Not liking the killing of a babe =/= going against your liege lord. And Tarly wouldn't go against Mace either because he has no reason to.

[DMC]

Which is the point of Mace's army outside Kings Landing, to ensure that both Cersei and the Faith do nothing stupid like deposing Margarey, making her situation as Queen rather less tenuous.
 

 

Except now Cersei has noone to check her vindictive and erratic behavior, which will almost certainly be aimed at Margaery first and foremost, hence making her situation more tenuous.  If you believe Marge is going to go back to playing tourney with Tommen and naming cats, I've got a bridge to sell.
 

 

Not liking the killing of a babe =/= going against your liege lord. And Tarly wouldn't go against Mace either because he has no reason to.

 

 

Right.  It's called a possible hint that's coupled with the 'friends in the Reach' foreshadowing.

[HappilyEverAfter]

Except now Cersei has noone to check her vindictive and erratic behavior, which will almost certainly be aimed at Margaery first and foremost, hence making her situation more tenuous.  If you believe Marge is going to go back to playing tourney with Tommen and naming cats, I've got a bridge to sell.
 
Right.  It's called a possible hint that's coupled with the 'friends in the Reach' foreshadowing.

I wish Cersei the best of luck attacking Margaery through Tarly and Mace's army, or sticking around as Queen Regent with Mace as Hand of the King.

Even if Rowan joins Aegon, he's in command of a token force, not a major host.

[SeanF]

^^^ Why would they join Aegon? Margarey's set to become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, what would they gain by joining team Aegon that is better than becoming royalty?
Also, Stannis took Storms' End and the majority of Renly's host sided with the Lannisters. Taking Storms End doesn't automatically give you the Tyrells.

Margaery could still be found guilty of adultery, which would, at the very least, result in her being disgraced. Or, she could be implicated in Joffrey's murder, and be executed for it. That would turn the Tyrells against the government.

[DMC]

I wish Cersei the best of luck attacking Margaery through Tarly and Mace's army, or sticking around as Queen Regent with Mace as Hand of the King.
 

 

Well, I don't.  But I also think the end of ADWD is blatant in setting up chaos in King's Landing predicated on Cersei regaining power.  Honestly, what's your alternative?  Cersei is ousted and the Tyrells fight both Aegon and Euron with Tommen as their puppet?

[HappilyEverAfter]

Margaery could still be found guilty of adultery, which would, at the very least, result in her being disgraced. Or, she could be implicated in Joffrey's murder, and be executed for it. That would turn the Tyrells against the government.

Tyrion was already found guilty of Joffrey's murder, in trial by combat so the Faith have no reason to implicate Margaery, unless they want to admit that the gods were wrong.

And if the Faith judged Margaery guilty Mace could easily launch a coup/rescue as Hand of the King with a trained army at his back. Assuming Margaery, beloved of the smalltalk, is found guilty.

[HappilyEverAfter]

Well, I don't.  But I also think the end of ADWD is blatant in setting up chaos in King's Landing predicated on Cersei regaining power.  Honestly, what's your alternative?  Cersei is ousted and the Tyrells fight both Aegon and Euron with Tommen as their puppet?

The Redwyne fleet and Hightower armies (the two most powerful houses in the Reach after the Tyrells) are already fighting off Euron and the Tyrells can raise a host of around 60,000 (which is a conservative estimate) without the Redwynes. Also, if Cersei is ousted, which is likely, the Tyrells can strike back at Aegon by retaking places like Tarth which are probably weakly garrisoned with the royal fleet, or the fleet at dragonstone. It's not as if Aegon would be dumb enough to retry taking Kings Landing by sea, which ended so badly for Stannis.

[Darkstream]

Tyrion was already found guilty of Joffrey's murder, in trial by combat so the Faith have no reason to implicate Margaery, unless they want to admit that the gods were wrong.

And if the Faith judged Margaery guilty Mace could easily launch a coup/rescue as Hand of the King with a trained army at his back. Assuming Margaery, beloved of the smalltalk, is found guilty.

Agree with this except if she was implicated as only an accomplice the gods could still be right. Of course we know that they actually were wrong anyway.

[DMC]

And if the Faith judged Margaery guilty Mace could easily launch a coup/rescue as Hand of the King with a trained army at his back. Assuming Margaery, beloved of the smalltalk, is found guilty.

 

So, let's recap.  Mace can 'easily' weather Aegon's invasion, even if Dorne joins him; the potential that both Rowan and Tarly could abandon him; Cersei's return as regent and thus command of Lannister forces within the city (you think Kevan came alone?); the Faith uprising both within and without KL; and the ongoing Ironborn threat.  M'kay.

[DMC]

The Redwyne fleet and Hightower armies (the two most powerful houses in the Reach after the Tyrells) are already fighting off Euron and the Tyrells can raise a host of around 60,000 (which is a conservative estimate) without the Redwynes. Also, if Cersei is ousted, which is likely, the Tyrells can strike back at Aegon by retaking places like Tarth which are probably weakly garrisoned with the royal fleet, or the fleet at dragonstone. It's not as if Aegon would be dumb enough to retry taking Kings Landing by sea, which ended so badly for Stannis.

 

This makes no sense.  The fleet at Dragonstone was the Redwyne fleet that is currently on its way to fight off the Ironborn.  This is why Loras stormed Dragonstone.  How is Mace going to get to the island of Tarth without any fleet?  Aegon won't attack KL by ship because the GC was dropped off, but if he had the ships he definitely would.  Your 60,000 number is grossly inflated considering the disparate nature of the Reach's forces.