R+L=D & B+A=J ... I don't buy it

[BlackFyre > BlackFire]

I posted something similar on an A+J=T thread: While I can see GRRM placing clues to multiple character's having secret parentage as a way to keep reader's guessing, I would be SHOCKED if he actually had more than one "main" character have a secret parentage. Just don't see an author of GRRM's creativity doing that.

Working of that assumption (and I fully admit it's an assumption) then I have to weigh all these secret parents theories and ask which one is most likely true. For me it's R+L=J. Just feels like the theory that most fits with the theme's of the character's. 

I would honestly just be really disappointed if we wind up finding out that Jon,  Dany and Tyrion all have a secret parentage backstory.

MHO

[The Dragons Hand]

Gods above do I want the "Content you follow" thing to be fixed.

[Mithras]

I happen to agree with you but people keep asking for a "purpose" to the theory so I provided one.

Now all this "matters" not because it disproves R+L=J but because it might help complement it.

For instance, realizing that Ashara's child if it survived, is a potential Sword of the Morning... or that the timeline we have for Jon and Dany's birth doesn't really fit if you take the SSM... I dunno, this thread seems quite interesting to me... ;-)

 

If Dayne blood is all you need, B + A = J is still unnecessary because Maekar's wife was a Dayne and all of his descendants which include Jon and Dany have Dayne blood.

[The Green King]

I posted something similar on an A+J=T thread: While I can see GRRM placing clues to multiple character's having secret parentage as a way to keep reader's guessing, I would be SHOCKED if he actually had more than one "main" character have a secret parentage. Just don't see an author of GRRM's creativity doing that.

Working of that assumption (and I fully admit it's an assumption) then I have to weigh all these secret parents theories and ask which one is most likely true. For me it's R+L=J. Just feels like the theory that most fits with the theme's of the character's. 

I would honestly just be really disappointed if we wind up finding out that Jon,  Dany and Tyrion all have a secret parentage backstory.

MHO

 

If these three all had a different secret parentage backstory that would indeed be sad and little creative. But that's exactly why it would be much more interesting that something as mysterious as ToJ would lead to much bigger unexpected consequences and implications than only the confirmation of R+L=J. Although i don't think it would need to too much in the crazy realm of R+L=D and thus B+A= J. But more a reveal that is less expected of how things went down and maybe a secret connection that is revealed there. I'm just saying that it makes more sense to not just confirm R+L=J, but make the reveal of that confirmation set a few cluster-reveals in motion. And thus saying yes, R+L=J but there are a few bigger implications linked to that. The secret is bigger than just Jon. What actually happened to Ashara could be one of those things. There too could still be a big reveal. But there are a few other implications possible. 

I'm all up for yet another unexpected reveal, this could be a secret parentage, or a secret identity of one or more characters. And maybe through that even the introduction of a new important player. But i hope it will be with one of the smaller characters rather than with one of the people like Daenerys or Tyrion. That is what makes reveals interesting, something unexpected, that actually matters quite a bit. 

[The Green King]

 

I said it before and will say it again - context matters. Ned has no reason to lie to Robert in this instance. Your default position seems to be that everything Ned says to Robert is dubious, which is just plain wrong.

 

I can only agree half with this. Context matters indeed, but Ned isn't stupid nor careless. He's fairly sure that the circle of people that know this secret (or chain of secrets) is pretty small. However he's not going to take much risks to attract unwanted questions. To give you an example, through what he came to know from his sister and the years after that event he might have come to see Rhaegar in a totally different light and even felt sympathy for the man, but he will never ever take the risk of showing this. Not to Robert or even Catelyn. And towards his offspring he might only show a little moderation, but nothing overtly. Same about Lyanna and the circumstances of her abduction and her death. He will likely let Robert believe that whatever he thinks comes close to the truth, since it's the easiest way to not make Robert question the lie he's being fed. And the best lie is a half truth, so let sleeping dogs lie. And that works even better if they believe their own lies. That's the way he steers Robert away from finding out too much. But on most other subjects and matters he wil try to be truthful to Robert, he will try to be just and even still try to be his friend. Ned even tried to do right and stay honorable to Robert as a king and it cost him his head. 

But since the ToJ and the promise to his sister, there is no certainty that what he tells about those events to someone like Robert, Catelyn or his family is actually  truthful. He might be agreeing with their ideas or working with their theories, simply to make them believe and not question too much. 

[Ser Naufragus]

Selmy seems adamant that Ashara was "dishonored" at Harrenhall.

Now we can take this to mean someone did something mean to her or it could be, you know, "dishonored".


No other characters have anything to say about her other than she was parading herself to the best catches in westoros, looked gorgeous and danced all night. There appears to be no drama anyone else took note of other than her being a popular debutante.

So with what we know it would seem to mean "dishonored".

Ashara's pregnancy might not be noticed for 4 months, 6 months. Sometimes its just the last couple when it shows. So Selmy has no way to know when she might have gotten preggers.


Maybe he is just relying on court gossip but he seems adamant it was Harrenhall. So the only way he could know is if he himself witnessed the "dishonoring".

So he could have walked in on say Brandon and Ashara - not Ned because they would have been really awkward in story later.

Since he is KG, its more than likely he was guarding and was present.

He seems to like R so that only leaves Aerys in the royal family at harrenhall.

Like I want Ashara to have some Brandon or Ned or R baby but Selmy seems to indicate its Aerys by his testimony.

Which then makes all the possible baby switching interesting since Aegon could still be a bastard Targ or Dany is still his daughter but a now bastard or Jon is now a bastard tag with Dany his sister.

If Ashara did have a stillbirth, this makes sense because Targs pregnancy issues.

It also provides a motivation for her "stillbirth" and "suicide" since Ned was probably like, take your Targ bastard and run before they smash your head in.

This also provides a reason for her to be dealing with Varys- since Varys seemed to look out for royal bastards and provides an explanation of where Septa Lemore could have come from.

And others have brought up when she had the baby and when left KL for Starfall. She could have given birth in KL, Dragonstone or Starfall. So there is ample time to have switch babies in KL or dargonstone before returning. If she gave birth at starfall then any stories put out by just her court are suspect. Varys could have had any "stillborn" babies right there in front of him if she gave birth in KL

[BlackFyre > BlackFire]

Yeah, and maybe Aerys secretly was in love with Ashara, having known her because she was handmaiden (or something) to Elia, and when he found out that Brandon defiled her he ordered Rhaegar to kidnap Lyanna, knowing that this would upset the Starks and cause Rickard and Brandon to come to KL and complain, thus allowing him to kill them and take revenge for Ashara's dishonoring.

 

See how I kind of used actual facts from within the text to create a narrative that is in no way shape or form supported by the text? 

 

That's how a lot of the theories seem to go.

[The Khal Who Rode West]

 
I can only agree half with this. Context matters indeed, but Ned isn't stupid nor careless. He's fairly sure that the circle of people that know this secret (or chain of secrets) is pretty small. However he's not going to take much risks to attract unwanted questions. To give you an example, through what he came to know from his sister and the years after that event he might have come to see Rhaegar in a totally different light and even felt sympathy for the man, but he will never ever take the risk of showing this. Not to Robert or even Catelyn. And towards his offspring he might only show a little moderation, but nothing overtly. Same about Lyanna and the circumstances of her abduction and her death. He will likely let Robert believe that whatever he thinks comes close to the truth, since it's the easiest way to not make Robert question the lie he's being fed. And the best lie is a half truth, so let sleeping dogs lie. And that works even better if they believe their own lies. That's the way he steers Robert away from finding out too much. But on most other subjects and matters he wil try to be truthful to Robert, he will try to be just and even still try to be his friend. Ned even tried to do right and stay honorable to Robert as a king and it cost him his head. 
But since the ToJ and the promise to his sister, there is no certainty that what he tells about those events to someone like Robert, Catelyn or his family is actually  truthful. He might be agreeing with their ideas or working with their theories, simply to make them believe and not question too much. 

I fail to see how letting Robert think Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna hundreds of times in any way shape or form protects Ned's secret that his bastard is actually Lyanna's. I mean,

- Lyanna is kidnapped by Rhaegar
- Lyanna is held captive for a year
- Lyanna is raped by Rhaegar hundreds of times
- Ned finds Lyanna dying
- Honorable Ned announces that he cheated on his wife during the war and now has a bastard
- Ned refuses to say who the mother was

Even a child could look at this and think that there's probably something more to the story. If anything Ned would have vastly distorted the details upon finding Lyanna dying having just given birth to Rhaegar's son. The story as is might as well be pointing a giant sign that says "R+L=J"

[KimberBenton]

I know the theory of Preston Jacobs and it intrigued me, like I find all his theories intriguing, even though sometimes a bit over the top. :) The sad thing is, that in this case it doesn't work. Dany is indeed nearly a year younger than Robb and Jon, as they are both 14 at the beginning of ASoIaF and Dany is 13. What is true, is that there are no lemon trees in Bravos, and the house with the red door has to be somewhere else. I believe that there is no one alive anymore, who could confirm or deny, if Dany is in truth Aerys' or Rhaegars daughter. All we can be sure about is that she is a Targaryen, because of her looks. :)

I had the R+L=J theory all by myself reading the books 3 years ago (and was rather proud of it, until I found out, that pretty much everyone got it on their own), but there are a lot of wholes in that theories, looking at it more closely (and I only started theorising 2 month ago, because I was sick and bored, and now it seems I can't stop).

For one, Ned thinks of all the promises (plural) he made and what they had cost him. Keeping Jon save is just one promise, and it cost him close to nothing. Just a stern look of Cat, when he returned to Winterfell.

Then there is this quote from Neds fever dream (GoT):

 

"But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”
“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.
“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

 

And I wonder what has happened "then", what that is referring to. And the vow they have sworn was to protect the King and his family, but Ser Gerold says it like protecting the Queen and Viserys is not as important as Lyanna.

The third thing that bugs me is, that everyone is thinking, Ned was with Lyanna, when she died, when it actually doesn't say he was. It is a fever dream. He sees her in a bed of blood, he hears her saying "Promise me, Ned." She could have asked him earlier and somewhere else, and he is just remembering, when he sees her dead on the bed or just mixing things up in his fever dream.

Rhaegar was obsessed with prophecy. It might as well be, that the Kings guards killed Lyanna shortly before Ned arrived in some kind of ritual on Rhaegars order. Surely Rhaegar would have wanted to do that himself, if it where true, but he was dead, and he might have left orders. Maybe he wanted to hatch a dragon for his son Aegon.

So I wonder, did Lyana even have a child?

I also wonder, if Dawn is Lightbringer and if Jon really is Azor Ahai, and I'm not saying he is, he must be a Dayne to be granted the right to swing it. With Ashara as the mother there could only be either Ned or Brandon as the father, I give Preston Jacobs that :) I do however think that Jon is too young for that.

BTW, the right age for being Asharas child, if it is still alive goes to Gendry, as Ned thinks he is maybe a year older than Robb. If Robert had fathered him in Harrenhal, that would work. Also think of the cloak the knight that brought Gendry to the blacksmith was wearing. It fits several houses, but I think it might have had the Daynes coloring.
 

What might be another point, and I'm just bringing it up, because I think no one has ever mention it, what is if Rhaegar was the father of Aegon with Elia, Dany and Jon, with Ashara and Lyanna as mothers. That way he would have had three siblings for his dragons. I don't believe it to be true, just wanted to throw it out there. :)

So, I conclude that I have no idea, who Jons parents are, that I'm unsure about Dany and that Gendry is Azor Ahai... just kidding here :)

[Mithras]

I also wonder, if Dawn is Lightbringer and if Jon really is Azor Ahai, and I'm not saying he is, he must be a Dayne to be granted the right to swing it. With Ashara as the mother there could only be either Ned or Brandon as the father, I give Preston Jacobs that :) I do however think that Jon is too young for that.

 

As I told before, Maekar's wife was a Dayne. So, if R+L=J is true, Jon has some Dayne blood.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Me too.

 

What I also do not buy is AD + L = J and A + J = T or A + J = C&J

Ashara Dayne and Lyanna? :P

[Isobel Harper]

@KimberBenton

The third thing that bugs me is, that everyone is thinking, Ned was with Lyanna, when she died, when it actually doesn't say he was.

In AGoT Eddard I, Eddard tells Robert that he was with her when she died. He recalls that one of her dying wishes was to be buried in the Winterfell crypt.

[KimberBenton]

@KimberBenton


In AGoT Eddard I, Eddard tells Robert that he was with her when she died. He recalls that one of her dying wishes was to be buried in the Winterfell crypt.

 

See, I forgot that he said that... and there is no reason for him to lie about that. Thanks for clearing it up. :)

[The Green King]

I fail to see how letting Robert think Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna hundreds of times in any way shape or form protects Ned's secret that his bastard is actually Lyanna's. I mean,

- Lyanna is kidnapped by Rhaegar
- Lyanna is held captive for a year
- Lyanna is raped by Rhaegar hundreds of times
- Ned finds Lyanna dying
- Honorable Ned announces that he cheated on his wife during the war and now has a bastard
- Ned refuses to say who the mother was

Even a child could look at this and think that there's probably something more to the story. If anything Ned would have vastly distorted the details upon finding Lyanna dying having just given birth to Rhaegar's son. The story as is might as well be pointing a giant sign that says "R+L=J"

 

 

Or...

- Rhaegar  was indeed an evil bastard, good that you took care of him Robert, thanks. 

- He defiled and mistreated my sister, which in turn caused her to die

- Luckily me and my bannermen were there in time to avenge my sister and kill her captors.

- I'm glad that we at least were able to have vengeance for my poor sister, sweet Lyanna she didn't deserve that

- I'm glad we rebelled and got rid of all those foul Targaryens

- But that was war time, crazy time,  i was frustrated, so yes i was with a woman, we all have had our sins.

- What happens in war, better stays in war, it's not the same as the life we have now, i don't want to upset Catelyn any further

- Still, i do want to take my responsabilities even though he's my child of war

- That woman was nice for war time, but i can't just break my ties with my dear Catelyn  and her family over some fling during the war

 

That description is close to what you said, but due to it's presentation it's more congratulation Robert (and Ned himself) to the act of the rebellion and it's succes. It diverts away from the link between the child and Lyanna. Which is what Ned certainly would have done, leave as little loose ends as possible for Robert to think about such links. Pitty and mourn the loss of his sister, the poor soul, but in that act confirm the idea that Rhaegar was a bad person and that it's good that ALL Targs have been wiped from the earth. For which we have Robert to thank. And this wold appeal more to Robert's ego, than make him think about Lyanna. As long as Robert believes there is no link and keeps buys into what Ned feeds him, that's just perfect for Ned. Also, Ned is the one that knows about some of Robert's bastards, so he knows that Robert can relate to the fact that it's better to not stir the pot of the origins of a bastard. It's even recommendable that Ned has taken responsabillity for his bastard, while Robert has tons of them out there. In fact Robert likely feels great about having a friend like Ned, who is wise and honourable to great lengths, but not entirely perfect either, which makes Robert connect a bit more because they do seem to have a shared flaw. 

[The Green King]

@KimberBenton


In AGoT Eddard I, Eddard tells Robert that he was with her when she died. He recalls that one of her dying wishes was to be buried in the Winterfell crypt.

 

I still regard most of what Eddard tells Robert about that event as dubious. Which doesn't mean i'm saying that he is lying, but i feel that  there's no way to be sure that he isn't lying. Anything said by Eddard to Robert about the ToJ or Lyanna's death can be seen as words that we can't be sure about if he is or isn't lying. After ToJ you just can't be sure about what Eddard says to Robert or his family, likely they are half truths at best. this means you don't really get full out lies, but you don't know what is or what isn't true. Eddard has reason to misdirect all of them, and will certainly muddy the water. 

[Rippounet]

I highly doubt that the daughter of a house loyal to the targyaren's was wandering around during a rebellion with one of the leaders of the rebellion. pretty sure the mad king would've made a very big deal about that

 

That's a good point, but it cuts both ways. Since this is so unlikely, the rumors must have had a very good reason to start.
 

[Rippounet]

If Dayne blood is all you need, B + A = J is still unnecessary because Maekar's wife was a Dayne and all of his descendants which include Jon and Dany have Dayne blood.

Yeah... Nah, I think Ashara's child (if it survived) is a better candidate than simply going over the genealogy.

 

Otherwise one might say that most people from great houses have at least a bit of dragon blood as well...

 

 

If having a Dayne great great grandmother is enough to claim Dawn, then half of Dorne could claim Dawn.

+1

[Lady Darry]

 

As I told before, Maekar's wife was a Dayne. So, if R+L=J is true, Jon has some Dayne blood.

 

If having a Dayne great great grandmother is enough to claim Dawn, then half of Dorne could claim Dawn.

[Rippounet]

Ashara Dayne and Lyanna? :P

 

Sorry, but Ashara Dayne and Elia makes much more sense. Let's call this the AD+EM theory. AD'EM.
 

[Rippounet]

What might be another point, and I'm just bringing it up, because I think no one has ever mention it, what is if Rhaegar was the father of Aegon with Elia, Dany and Jon, with Ashara and Lyanna as mothers. That way he would have had three siblings for his dragons. I don't believe it to be true, just wanted to throw it out there. :)

 

Rhaegar+Ashara = Dany? Well, it's worth a thought, but that means Rhaegar sleeping around a lot before and after Harrenhal.

Though, for fairly the same reason, I'd thought of Aerys being the father of Tyrion, Dany and (yes) Jon... Which isn't that much better.

Truth is, with the story we have, it's quite difficult to make sense of the "three heads" thing. Especially if one starts to say that there's only one hidden parentage in the books... (which would be Jon).

 

I'm starting to see a real problem with the birth dates though. Robb and/or Jon's, Dany's... Ashara's -supposedly stillborn- baby... I think one of them is wrong.