R+L=D & B+A=J ... I don't buy it

[maudisdottir]

What about Rhaenys, does she not fit into this three/four headed dragon?

And I agree that there'd be no point Ned lying about Jon's age. If he was months older than claimed, Ned would have told Cat he was conceived when Brandon was still alive (and betrothed to Cat) and Ned was single. Problem solved, no need to brood on the dishonour for years.

[Mithras]

If having a Dayne great great grandmother is enough to claim Dawn, then half of Dorne could claim Dawn.

 

What do you mean by claiming the Dawn? It belongs to House Dayne and they have a tradition of giving it to chosen members of the House. Half of Dorne with Dayne blood is no more eligible to claim it than a bastard of the House. If virtue and Dayne blood is the requirement, great great grandmother works just the same.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

 

That's a good point, but it cuts both ways. Since this is so unlikely, the rumors must have had a very good reason to start.
 

Yes. Ashara is the only (noble) woman Ned seems to have been attracted to and everybody who was present at Harrenhal knew it.

 

 

If having a Dayne great great grandmother is enough to claim Dawn, then half of Dorne could claim Dawn.

Indeed. So what?

 

It's not an issue of any magical bloodlines (those are far too widespread and diluted, even if they mattered in the first place), but about the current House Dayne deciding who shall wield Dawn.

[dkantilles]

I have always found the story of ToJ interesting and also troubling as facts around it are muddy at best.  When I came across this thread, it was a great read overall.  So other than what is covered, my general questions. 

 

1) In Ned's fever dream, why doesn't Ned tell the 3 Kings Guard that Rhaeger also is dead.  Ned spoke about Aerys dying and the seige being lifted, but not Rhaeger dying.  Could that have changed the Kingsguard's response?

2) Arthur Dayne is a noted fighter and maybe one of the best knights at the time.  Ned was never described as a great fighter.  He would have lost to Jaime in a one on one fight, Rob wasn't a great fighter even for his young age.  The best Kingsguard like Selmy would have killed 4-6 good knights on his own.  Arthur probably takes at least 3-4 good knights.  HighTower and Whent, probably were high caliber fighters if Selmy is the one helping choose them.  Ned plus 6, with one being a small guy in Howland Reed.  On paper, I would bet the 3 Kingsguard wins that.  But it seems like they lose.  Obviously if the 3 did die, Howland Reed plays a  big part in this.  On face value, it bothered me why the Kingsguard would lose this fight and Ned being supremely confident in the win.  Obviously he had an ace up his sleeve aka Howland Reed.

3) Aerys sent the Kingsguard to get Rhaeger back to the capital.  I am assuming he told Gerold to come back but they stayed.  Why would they not obey Aerys' command? (assuming Aerys told them to return as well). 

4) I am not 100% convinced of Dany's age or if she is Aerys' daughter.  I do like the idea of her being Rhaeger and Lyanna's.  

5) I don't think Ashara is dead.  Ned going there after supposedly killing Arthur Dayne just to return the sword does not seem right

6) I would be very shocked if R+L is not J

7) When HBO started their production process, GRRM asked them to predict the outcome.  GRRM said they got it right.  I am assuming the major theories and such.  If these men, with the same information as super fans can get it right, I think we are more on the right track than not with the popular theories.

 

Cant wait for the ToJ scenes in the next HBO season.  I wish GRRM releases his books prior.  

[JonSnow4President]

I have always found the story of ToJ interesting and also troubling as facts around it are muddy at best.  When I came across this thread, it was a great read overall.  So other than what is covered, my general questions. 

 

1) In Ned's fever dream, why doesn't Ned tell the 3 Kings Guard that Rhaeger also is dead.  Ned spoke about Aerys dying and the seige being lifted, but not Rhaeger dying.  Could that have changed the Kingsguard's response?

2) Arthur Dayne is a noted fighter and maybe one of the best knights at the time.  Ned was never described as a great fighter.  He would have lost to Jaime in a one on one fight, Rob wasn't a great fighter even for his young age.  The best Kingsguard like Selmy would have killed 4-6 good knights on his own.  Arthur probably takes at least 3-4 good knights.  HighTower and Whent, probably were high caliber fighters if Selmy is the one helping choose them.  Ned plus 6, with one being a small guy in Howland Reed.  On paper, I would bet the 3 Kingsguard wins that.  But it seems like they lose.  Obviously if the 3 did die, Howland Reed plays a  big part in this.  On face value, it bothered me why the Kingsguard would lose this fight and Ned being supremely confident in the win.  Obviously he had an ace up his sleeve aka Howland Reed.

3) Aerys sent the Kingsguard to get Rhaeger back to the capital.  I am assuming he told Gerold to come back but they stayed.  Why would they not obey Aerys' command? (assuming Aerys told them to return as well). 

4) I am not 100% convinced of Dany's age or if she is Aerys' daughter.  I do like the idea of her being Rhaeger and Lyanna's.  

5) I don't think Ashara is dead.  Ned going there after supposedly killing Arthur Dayne just to return the sword does not seem right

6) I would be very shocked if R+L is not J

7) When HBO started their production process, GRRM asked them to predict the outcome.  GRRM said they got it right.  I am assuming the major theories and such.  If these men, with the same information as super fans can get it right, I think we are more on the right track than not with the popular theories.

 

Cant wait for the ToJ scenes in the next HBO season.  I wish GRRM releases his books prior.  

1) Is heavily implied.

 

 

They were seven, facing three. In the dream as it had been in life. Yet these were no ordinary three. They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dorne at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind. And these were no shadows; their faces burned clear, even now. Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, had a sad smile on his lips. The hilt of the greatsword Dawn poked up over his right shoulder. Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings. Between them stood fierce old Ser Gerold Hightower, the White Bull, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.

"We were not there," Ser Gerold answered.

 

"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell.

 

 

 

2) You have ridiculously unrealistic ideas of odds in melee combat.  Among trained combatants (ie, not you and me), 2 on 1 is in favor of the 2, no matter how good the 1 is.  As it was, the KG still almost succeeded.  You're also ignoring any possible bit of the "motivation by love" effect (Ned for his sister).

 

3) He sent Gerold to get Rhaegar to come back.  Rhaegar came back.  There is no basis for your assumption.  

 

4) Well, I'm sorry you feel the need to invent something out of nothing.

 

5) As many do not.  This still has no affect on R+L=J...

 

6) Well, duh.

[dkantilles]

1) Implied but not said.  Ned recounts the scenes, but does not talk about Rhaegar.  Just curious why he didn't mention it

2) Possibly, but I believe it when Selmy tells joffrey before leaving the court that he would cut down all the rest of his kingsguard with ease.  A skilled fighter like Jaime in the midst of battle and greatly outnumbered killed several of Robb's personal guard (3 at the final charge) before getting captured.  Jaime would have killed more if he was not so severely outnumbered.  7 to 3 are steep odds, but if the 3 were much much better skilled, they would win.

3) Aerys, always paranoid and fearing for his live.  Asks Rhaegar to come back but not his Kingsguard?  That is certainly odd.  

4) Yes, people scoff at the lemon tree dream of Dany, but her remembering parts of her childhood that is not dragonstone or Braavos, makes one question her history, and ultimately, her parentage.  I dont think her history is really known.

6) Considering this thread was regarding theories about B+A=J and other baby swaps, I just wanted to mention my thoughts lol

[AlaskanSandman]

        THE FIRST FIRST MEN MIGRATION across the arm of Vale (as mentioned at least in the Stormlands section of AWOIAF, mentioning the Narrow sea having possibly been an inland fresh water sea) under the leadership of The First King/Barrow Kings and war with the Children of the Forest. The Northern lands unbroken at this time stretched south to the vale where they had entered and the Riverlands. Possibly even the Westerlands and the Casterlys and the Hightowers of Old Town. The Iron Islanders who had no boats at the time did not find Islands, but lands connected to the main land till the breaking had separated them from the main lands and left nothing but a few islands. Making the North truly larger than the other realms combined, tho later only a third their size. 

 

        THE PACT UPON THE GODS EYE & ORDER OF THE GREEN MEN & GARTH THE GREEN. Garth i believe was born from the union of Men and the children as per the pacts many agreements. Garth having green skin and horns just like that of the Green men of the Gods Eye. 

 

        THE SECOND FIRST MEN MIGRATION & THE AGE OF HEROS. across the arm of Dorne led by other men who found Garth the green already in the lands, and the Hightower already standing. (I dont know what caused they're flight but it may be Old Ghis or Valyria) Garth breeds with many first men women sowing the seeds for many of the houses of the Reach and 2 outside of the Reach and starting the Age of Heros. The Starks of Winterfell and the Lannisters of Casterly Rock.  (House Crane is said to be able to warg into Cranes so this is likely why house Stark has Warging abilities). House Stark forms from Brandon the Bloody Blade (who killed many Children of the Forest and Giants) who is possibly father to Brandon the Builder, that or they are one and the same. Lann (fathered upon Florys the Fox or Rowan Gold Tree by an Andal Adventurer) goes east to take Castemere from the Casterlys. House Dayne (with some sort of connection to Valyria) follows a falling star to where it crashes to build starfall and eventually a Sword as strong and sharp as valyrian steel. Mean while in the east, the Bloodstone Emperor (Red) betrays his sister and begins worshiping a fallen stone. Taking a tiger woman to wife and enslaving his people. His father was the Opal Emperor while his betrayed sister was the Amethyst Empress (Amethyst is purple while Opal is multi colored but Black Opal looks the colors of the Night Sky). Durran Gods Grief builds Storms End with the help of Brandon the Builder possibly, that or children? 7th time his castle survives the wrath of the gods (he wed the daughter of the Sea god and the goddess of the Wind Elenei. Sounds kinda like the Drowned god and the Storm god. Also, 7 storms maybe what inspired the Andal Faith and may be the storms that broke the arm of Dorne and such.) Time of Adara and the Ice Dragon. Her Uncles armies attired in the Green of Garth in the South while the Army in the North attired in Black and Orange, possibly Asshai or Valyria, tho possibly the Dustins as the sigil has a Black crown against Black.

 

        BREAKING OF THE ARM OF DORNE & THE VALE, FLOODING OF THE NECK & THE LONG NIGHT. The Long Night begins after the Breaking of Westeros. Azor Ahai makes the sword of heros after tempering it through his wifes heart. The Last Hero travels in search of the children with the help of 12 companions, a dog, a horse, and a dragon steel sword. He finds the children it is believed for after the Men of the Nights Watch band together against the Others (likely this means simply that the Order of the Nights Watch is formed). Brandon the Builder builds the Wall with the aid of the Children of the Forest. The 13th Lord Commander becomes the Nights King and serves for 13 years with his Corpse bride after seeing her North of the Wall. They enslave the men of the watch and are later stopped by Brandon the Breaker and Joramun, King beyond the Wall. The Night's King supposedly named Brandon and brother to Brandon the Breaker. His Corpse Bride supposedly a daughter to the Dustin King, descendants of the Barrow Kings though forced to take a new name due to curse upon the Tomb of The Barrow King. Likely placed there by the Starks or Children of the Forest. Curse said to turn any pretender to the title of First King turn corpse like in appearance. (Brandon the Bloody Blade, The Dayne who made Dawn, Azor Ahai, The Last Hero, Brandon the Builder, and the Night's King allllll likely the same guy. This due to the fact that him and Brandon the Breaker are only half brothers. As is our current 3 heads of the Dragon. Tyrion= son of Aerys and Joanna, Jon= Rhaegar and Lyanna, and Dany= Rhaegar and Ashara. Ill get back to that.

 

       ANDAL INVASION & END OF THE AGE OF HEROS. About 2300 to 2000 years ago after the fall out of the Long Night, Ser Artys Arryn/ the Winged Night lands in the Vale fleeing the onslaught of the Valyrian expansion. Displaces the Royces in the Vale and the Andals begin to spread. Theon Stark fights the Andals after the Boltons Bend a Knee and join sides. Theon first King to switch from the King of Winter to King in the North. Jon Stark builds Wolfs Den after to secure the North. Many houses in the South fall to the Andals whose invasion stopped about 1700 years ago after the scouring of Lorath. With the Andals come the Faith of the Seven and at some unknown time the Maesters out of Old Town, also comes the Dragon slayers of the Andal Knights, with possible aid of the Septons or Maesters. Maesters accused in current stories of killing the Targaryen Dragons during the Dance. Valyria turns her attention to the Rhoynar and by 1000 years ago the Rhoynish invasion of Dorne takes place.

 

       Much of the history from here connects to the well known and documented history of current events. 

 

       Now a note on the 3 heads of the dragon theory. The prince that was promised would be born from the lines of Aerys and Rhaella Targaryen. The prophecy doesnt say from the union of the two, it simply says the lines of the two siblings. Aerys has Tyrion with Joanna which is a well known theory and makes sense with dating and logic. Jon being the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna was a lil harder for people to fully take tho it was the most popular theory. For a reason. It makes the most sense given allll the information given. Jon being born around the sack of K.L. rules out any other father as Ned is too Honorable and his brother died too early the year before for it to be him. (Tho i did like that theory). Dany was the trickier person to figure out. Aerys and Rhaella supposedly have Rheagar and then its yearsss before they have another attempt. Rhaegar is born the same year that Rhaella wed Aerys and its quite possible Rhaegar isnt Aery's kid despite looking like the perfect Targaryen. Aerys only has Tyrion and Viserys, a deformed kid in which he mistakenly mocks Tywin for.   ;) Rhaegar is the son of Rhaella and Ser Bonifer Hasty. Rhaella and Aerys attempt to have kids numerous times who all are stillborn and die shortly after. Viserys is the only son born of their union and he's sickly and weak. Rhaella's last attempt results in a still birth that kills her and the incident is played off as Ashara who secretly has Rhaegars other kid. Rhaegar had been wooing Ashara at the Tourney of Harrenhal but ended up falling for Lyanna instead due to meddling of Howland after visiting the Gods Eye and Garths fellow Green Men. Ashara is dishonored by these events, tho Barastan cant do anything because its his future king, that or Barastan didnt know who had upset and dishonored her.

 

       I have a couple other theories, namely about house Martell and what their play for power is backed behind.