That Moment Arya Could've Ended the War

[Good Guy Garlan]

The problem, for me, is not that she didn't put a hit on Tywin. The problem is that she didn't put a hit on anyone important, only on a couple of obvious red shirts that had zero bearing on the plot. 

Something better, imo, would've been this: she kills Weese and Chyswick, fine, blackmails Jaqen into the Soup Coup, fine, but Jaqen doesn't murder that random Lannister guard, so he still owes her a name. She whispers it on his ear before he leaves, the reader doesn't know who it is but assumes it's Tywin. Wrong! It's Balon Greyjoy. While in Harrenhal, Arya heard how he invaded the North, burned Winterfell and murdered her brothers. She's naturally pissed, more pissed than she's with Tywin. Then come aSoS, Jaqen pushes Balon off that bridge and his debt to Arya is paid. 

I would've liked this better for 2 reasons: makes at least one of Arya's 3 names actually important, and sort of brings the story closer in terms of how X character's action has consequences for Y character, if that makes any sense.

[Maxxine]

I was refering to the 'spoiled brat' part.

Personally I like both characters quite a lot, I believe both had their moments, and yes Sansa did make mistakes, but I find the characterization 'spoiled brat' too loaded and, as I said, too subjective: while a reader who likes Sansa (or Arya) may admit their failures, it's not very likely to have a productive discussion when using such characterizations.

Oh ok. I'm not a Sansa fan at all so spoiled brat is just my feeling on how she acts, specifically in GoT. She becomes a lot more tolerable as the series moves forward. On the other hand, Arya is my favorite character so I'm much more forgiving of her mistakes. I didn't feel like spoiled brat was that inflammatory of a characterization though.

[Slowpoke Martin]

The problem, for me, is not that she didn't put a hit on Tywin. The problem is that she didn't put a hit on anyone important, only on a couple of obvious red shirts that had zero bearing on the plot.

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about!

Arya is not some dumb little girl, she saw a lot of things happen. Giving her a Chekhov's gun in Jaqen and using him to kill off some red shirts that have no importance to the plot is careless no matter how you slice it.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

Oh ok. I'm not a Sansa fan at all so spoiled brat is just my feeling on how she acts, specifically in GoT. She becomes a lot more tolerable as the series moves forward. On the other hand, Arya is my favorite character so I'm much more forgiving of her mistakes. I didn't feel like spoiled brat was that inflammatory of a characterization though.

Not really inflammatory, more of polarizing. Like, making me feel compelled to defend the characters instead of simply admitting that they might be at fault in the specific situation that's being discussed.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

The problem, for me, is not that she didn't put a hit on Tywin. The problem is that she didn't put a hit on anyone important, only on a couple of obvious red shirts that had zero bearing on the plot. 

Do you think she actually knew he was actually capable of killing anyone in the world? If he was this hard core assassin how did he end up in the Gold Cloaks jails with the likes of Rorge and Biter? Outsmarted by Slynt and his men.

 

At first she picks men who are a clear and present danger to her own life (Tywin wasn't, he didn't even register her existence) and targets she knew some formerly imprisoned sellsword could kill.

 

The trouble with threads like this is that they always come from the perspective of hindsight, that the 9 year old Arya should have been operating under the knowledge that

• Jaqen Hagar was not all talk
• That Tywin would order the Red Wedding
• That she should not have been concerned with her own safety in Harrnehal.

It is only after the first two deaths does she realize what kind of man she is dealing with.

 

She had been avoiding the Lorathi since Weese's death. Chiswyck had been easy, anyone could push a man off the wallwalk, but Weese had raised that ugly spotted dog from a pup, and only some dark magic could have turned the animal against him. Yoren found Jaqen in a black cell, the same as Rorge and Biter, she remembered. Jaqen did something horrible and Yoren knew, that's why he kept him in chains. If the Lorathi was a wizard, Rorge and Biter could be demons he called up from some hell, not men at all.

Jaqen still owed her one death. In Old Nan's stories about men who were given magic wishes by a grumkin, you had to be especially careful with the third wish, because it was the last.

It is only the third wish that she possibly wasted, though personally I think she put it to good use as it bought her freedom. She may have been dead or a prisoner if she asked for Joffrey, Tywin or someone important to be killed instead.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Do you think she actually knew he was actually capable of killing anyone in the world? If he was this hard core assassin how did he end up in the Gold Cloaks jails with the likes of Rorge and Biter? Outsmarted by Slynt and his men.

 

At first she picks men who are a clear and present danger to her own life (Tywin wasn't, he didn't even register her existence) and targets she knew some formerly imprisoned sellsword could kill.

 

The trouble with threads like this is that they always come from the perspective of hindsight, that the 9 year old Arya should have been operating under the knowledge that

• Jaqen Hagar was not all talk
• That Tywin would order the Red Wedding
• That she should not have been concerned with her own safety in Harrnehal.

It is only after the first two deaths does she realize what kind of man she is dealing with.

 

She had been avoiding the Lorathi since Weese's death. Chiswyck had been easy, anyone could push a man off the wallwalk, but Weese had raised that ugly spotted dog from a pup, and only some dark magic could have turned the animal against him. Yoren found Jaqen in a black cell, the same as Rorge and Biter, she remembered. Jaqen did something horrible and Yoren knew, that's why he kept him in chains. If the Lorathi was a wizard, Rorge and Biter could be demons he called up from some hell, not men at all.

Jaqen still owed her one death. In Old Nan's stories about men who were given magic wishes by a grumkin, you had to be especially careful with the third wish, because it was the last.

It is only the third wish that she possibly wasted, though personally I think she put it to good use as it bought her freedom. She may have been dead or a prisoner if she asked for Joffrey, Tywin or someone important to be killed instead.

Well, that's what I'm saying. After he makes Weese's loyal dog rip out his master's throat, she realizes he's something else. But GRRM basically cheats her out of that last name because Jaqen killed some rando guard at the last minute (and really, the Weasel Soup wasn't the be-all  and end-all of plans. I mean, the Bloody Mummers were gonna take the castle anyway). So she should've whispered the third name to him as he left, to end with a nice little cliffhanger, and that name should've Balon because Arya sure as hell would've wanted him dead if she'd heard about his attack on the North, and because it's possible, if not likely, that Jaqen was the FM who really ended up killing Balon anyway.

Just my two cents

[Light a wight tonight]

We literally just discussed that. Tywin was right there in the castle, if Jaqen throws him out a window of the Kingspyre, Lannister morale collapses, Kevan bangs his head into Edmures defenses over and over until Robb comes and orders the net to be closed around him, and KL falls.

Arya simply had the power to end the war then and there and let it get away. I don't particularly blame her, she's a ten year old being violently beaten, but she still should've thought it over more.

It's true, and she realizes it as Tywin rides out of Harrnhall, which is pretty perceptive for a girl that age in her position. She's thinking of changing her wishes to include Tywin and Gregor and looks for Jaqen to tell him when Weese is attacked and killed by his own dog. One more wish wasted.

[Celtic Cross]

If Tywin had died right then and there the Lannisters wouldve been in deep trouble indeed. Even if Kevan had taken over, it wouldve provided Stannis with precious time to win at Blackwater, and Stannis winning at Blackwater meant the end of the Lannister cause in the war. The Tyrells, who mightve not even joined the Lannisters in a situation where Tywin was killed, would surely drop out after Joffrey/Tommen were killed.

I don't blame Arya, she didn't realize what Jaqen really was capable of yet.  It's one of many situations in the WOTFK where one decision affected the war in a major way. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

If Tywin had died right then and there the Lannisters wouldve been in deep trouble indeed.

That is debatable, but even if so how would a 9 year old Arya know that?

 

Even if Kevan had taken over, it wouldve provided Stannis with precious time to win at Blackwater,

No it wouldn't. What an odd conclusion to jump to. Stannis was primarily beaten by the Reach soldiers with Mace. They didn't agree to marry Margaery to Joffrey because of who her Grandfather was but because he was King.

 

and Stannis winning at Blackwater meant the end of the Lannister cause in the war.

Again, not really. Forgetting that Tywin dying at Harrenhal or on the journey West would have had no effect on the Blackwater it important to remember that Tommen was not at Kings Landing but at Rosby.

[Celtic Cross]

That is debatable, but even if so how would a 9 year old Arya know that?

I said I don't blame Arya at the bottom of the post. She didn't know the impact Jaqen could make. 

That is debatable, but even if so how would a 9 year old Arya know that?

 Stannis was primarily beaten by the Reach soldiers with Mace. They didn't agree to marry Margaery to Joffrey because of who her Grandfather was but because he was King.

I said even if the agreement had taken place after Tywin died - it wouldve been delayed. Delayed long enough that the Reachmen aren't able to arrive at King's Landing at the perfect time as they end up doing. 

Again, not really. Forgetting that Tywin dying at Harrenhal or on the journey West would have had no effect on the Blackwater it important to remember that Tommen was not at Kings Landing but at Rosby.

Rosby is extremely close to King's Landing, there's no garauntee that Tommen would be able to escape. He's as likely to be captured as he is to make it to safety. The real question is did the Reachmen know he was there, and would they not abandon the cause upon hearing their King (Joffrey), Queen (Cersei), and Hand (Tyrion) were all captured/dead? 

[ShadowCat Rivers]

Thinking about death wishes, the really strange thing is, why didn't Stannis use his three leech-erous wishes to eliminate the three Lannister claimants to the Iron Throne and thus leaving him the only legal heir to Robert's dynasty, but wasted them instead on Robb and Balon, who could both be dealt with later on comparatively easily, once he'd consolidated his hold on the IT.

[Pod The Rod]

That is debatable, but even if so how would a 9 year old Arya know that?

She's ten by this point, not nine. And that's her only excuse.

No it wouldn't. What an odd conclusion to jump to. Stannis was primarily beaten by the Reach soldiers with Mace. They didn't agree to marry Margaery to Joffrey because of who her Grandfather was but because he was King.

Completely, totally wrong. They agreed to make the marriage because Tywin's reputation gave them the impression that the Lannisters would be the winning team.

REMEMBER: Mace and his troops sat at Tumbler's Falls for nearly a month, doing absolutely nothing but waiting for Tywin to join them. Had Tywin not joined them, they would have kept waiting, yes, long enough for KL to fall.

Again, not really. Forgetting that Tywin dying at Harrenhal or on the journey West would have had no effect on the Blackwater it important to remember that Tommen was not at Kings Landing but at Rosby.

Rosby is about two hour's ride from the city, and its troops are supplementing the Gold Cloaks. If Stannis wins, he's going to secure Rosby as a matter of course and when he does he will find Tommen.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

She's ten ... and that's her only excuse

Actually no, there's also the "minor" detail of being abused daily.

What's your excuse for not understanding issues of cognitive developement, being an adult and an internet connection owner?

[Maxxine]

Thinking about death wishes, the really strange thing is, why didn't Stannis use his three leech-erous wishes to eliminate the three Lannister claimants to the Iron Throne and thus leaving him the only legal heir to Robert's dynasty, but wasted them instead on Robb and Balon, who could both be dealt with later on comparatively easily, once he'd consolidated his hold on the IT.

This is a good question. He doesn't have the excuse of age that Arya does. He wasted it on 2 people who didn't even want the Iron Throne. I'm not even convinced you have to go to war w/ Robb. Something could have been peacefully worked out between those two.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

I said even if the agreement had taken place after Tywin died - it wouldve been delayed. Delayed long enough that the Reachmen aren't able to arrive at King's Landing at the perfect time as they end up doing. 

Tywin didnt make the agreement Littlefinger did. It was already agreed. The Reach men were already on the Blackwater ready to sail down before Tywin reached them.

 

She's ten by this point, not nine. And that's her only excuse.

No, that was one her many reasonable excuses.

 

Completely, totally wrong. They agreed to make the marriage because Tywin's reputation gave them the impression that the Lannisters would be the winning team.

No, they didn't. Can you back this up with a quote from the book?

We know why they agreed and it had little to do with Tywin and everything about making Mace's daughter Queen.

‘If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. "What does it matter," you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he might see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like ..."

Tywin might be a bonus but it was the Crown far more than any other reason why they allied with the Lannisters.

 

 

REMEMBER: Mace and his troops sat at Tumbler's Falls for nearly a month, doing absolutely nothing but waiting for Tywin to join them. Had Tywin not joined them, they would have kept waiting, yes, long enough for KL to fall.

I'm sorry but how would I remember something that didnt happen? When Renly was ready to fight Stannis Mace and another 10k were still in Highgarden. Stannis then spent a fortnight at Storms End before marching to Kings Landing. In that time the larger part of the Reach foot was at Bitterbridge (which is in the Reach, hundreds of miles from the Blackwater) until Littlefinger got there and arranged a deal in which time they themselves marched to Kings Landing.

I am not sure how you came to the conclusion that that were at Tumbler's Falls (in the Riverlands) for a month.

 

 

Rosby is about two hour's ride from the city, and its troops are supplementing the Gold Cloaks. If Stannis wins, he's going to secure Rosby as a matter of course and when he does he will find Tommen.

He first had to win, take control of the city, its gates, its treasury, its port, the royal family , the small council, the gold cloaks. An awful, awful lot of things to be done. Secure the defenses in case of being attacked himself.

Much to do before he can think about attacking random settlements on the chance that Princes might be there.

 

 

 

[Light a wight tonight]

 

This is a good question. He doesn't have the excuse of age that Arya does. He wasted it on 2 people who didn't even want the Iron Throne. I'm not even convinced you have to go to war w/ Robb. Something could have been peacefully worked out between those two.

Problem there is that the leeches were pure fakery. Mel saw the deaths "in the flames" and used the hocus-pocus with the leeches to make people think that she was able to kill from afar. Prediction, not cause. 

[Celtic Cross]

Tywin didnt make the agreement Littlefinger did. It was already agreed. The Reach men were already on the Blackwater ready to sail down before Tywin reached them.

 

Correct that Littlefinger brokered the deal with the Tyrells, but he was sanctioned to do it by Tywin. With Tywin dead, he would have to deliver it on his own accord, and we don't know if he would. We don't even know if Littlefinger would even continue to support the Lannisters if Tywin died. 

 

To my original point that the Lannisters would be in deep trouble, let me elaborate a bit more. They were already in a difficult position at that time even with Tywin alive. Stannis had just reached the height of his power in the war and was sailing with a collosal fleet to KL. At the same time the Starks were running roughshod in the Westerlands. Jaime was still captured and the Lannister army wouldn't ever be able to win on all fronts they were on. Their only hope in having a fighting chance was getting Tyrell support - and without Tywin to mastermind the alliance deal with Littlefinger, I just don't see the Tyrells ever joining their fold. Stannis then wins at Blackwater and the Lannister cause is crushed. 

[Pod The Rod]

Shadow Cat Rivers, I'm fully aware that she's being beaten everyday. In fact, I made mention of it on the first page of this thread.

 

littledragon, yes Tumbler's Falls is in the Riverlands. That's where Mace rendezvoused with Tywin. He sat there building boats for a month and then moved downriver to KL, with Tywin on the north bank and the Reachmen on the south bank. He did not move from that point until Tywin had joined him.

"He first had to win, take control of the city, its gates, its treasury, its port, the royal family , the small council, the gold cloaks". This would have taken less than a day. The treasury, royal family, small council, are all in the same place, the Red Keep. The Gold Cloaks are dead or routed. The gates are already under his control, from when his 20k men captured them on their way into the city. This is a total strawman. All these tasks would take less than 16 hours and he'd start looking to secure the immediate surroundings of the city: which include Rosby.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Correct that Littlefinger brokered the deal with the Tyrells, but he was sanctioned to do it by Tywin. With Tywin dead, he would have to deliver it on his own accord, and we don't know if he would. We don't even know if Littlefinger would even continue to support the Lannisters if Tywin died. 

No he didnt. It was sanctioned by Tyrion and Cersei.

"I'll want my commission in writing. A document that will leave Mace Tyrell in no doubt as to my authority, granting me full power to treat with him concerning this match and any other arrangements that might be required, and to make binding pledges in the king's name. It should be signed by Joffrey and every member of this council, and bear all our seals."

Tyrion shifted uncomfortably. "Done. Will that be all?

 

Tywin, like sending Myrcella to Dorne, only found out after the deal was made.

 

 

To my original point that the Lannisters would be in deep trouble, let me elaborate a bit more. They were already in a difficult position at that time even with Tywin alive. Stannis had just reached the height of his power in the war and was sailing with a collosal fleet to KL. At the same time the Starks were running roughshod in the Westerlands. The Lannister's only hope in having a fighting chance in the war was getting Tyrell support - and without Tywin to mastermind the alliance deal with Littlefinger, I just don't see the Tyrells ever joining their fold. 

But Tywin had little  (if anything) to do with that deal.

[Pod The Rod]

 

But Tywin had little  (if anything) to do with that deal.

You are determinedly missing the point here. Tywin's reputation made the deal possible, regardless of whether it was his idea. The Tyrells wanted Margaery to be Queen, but the fact that Joffrey had Tywin on side was what gave them the confidence that his side would be the winning one. Without Tywin there, the Tyrells are going to sit back and stay out as much as humanly possible.