That Moment Arya Could've Ended the War

[thelittledragonthatcould]

You are determinedly missing the point here. Tywin's reputation made the deal possible, regardless of whether it was his idea. The Tyrells wanted Margaery to be Queen, but the fact that Joffrey had Tywin on side was what gave them the confidence that his side would be the winning one. Without Tywin there, the Tyrells are going to sit back and stay out as much as humanly possible.

Not at all. They were not that concerned with Tywin when Renly was alive. Mace wanted his daughter to be Queen, allying with Stannis could not do that (and the Reach Lords had no love for Stannis to begin with) so they sided with the only alternative left that could do that. Tywin was just a bonus.

[Celtic Cross]

Tywin, like sending Myrcella to Dorne, only found out after the deal was made.

I thought he was aware of it. Even so,  the Tyrells wouldn't have continued to King's Landing until the Lannister army arrived to join them. Even if the Lannister army joined up with the Tyrells under Kevan the exact same way as they did under Tywin, the sudden realization that his most valuable ally was dead may give Mace hesitation to proceed with the deal. And even the slightest hesitation on the Tyrell's part wouldve given Stannis enough time to take King's Landing. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I thought he was aware of it. Even so,  the Tyrells wouldn't have continued to King's Landing until the Lannister army arrived to join them.

According to who?

We are told by Olenna that Mace was going to see things through.

"We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me, but once the cow's been milked there's no squirting the cream back up her udder. After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly's head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through."

The Tyrells did not need Tywin to beat Stannis, they still had around triple his numbers even without the Westerland contingent.

And there actions make it clear that they were going to act as they brought this 50/60k army out of the Reach and into the Riverlands on to the Blackwater. That is around 400 miles, no one marches that large an army that distance for no reason.

And then there is the Stannis issue, they had already turned him down twice and killed and imprisoned lords wanting to join up with him at Bitterbridge, they had done enough to show that they were vehemently opposed to him becoming King.

So there we have it, multiple motives for acting withor without Tywin and both their words and actions strongly suggest that they would have acted.

 

 

Even if the Lannister army joined up with the Tyrells under Kevan the exact same way as they did under Tywin, the sudden realization that his most valuable ally was dead may give Mace hesitation to proceed with the deal.

Joffrey is his most powerful ally.

 

If anything with Tywin gone Mace might think there is a chance that he would be Hand, like he clumsily suggests at Tywins funeral.

Far from being a deterrent, a Tywin free Joffrey might mean the Tyrells get more control over the new king and his kingdom.

 

And even the slightest hesitation on the Tyrell's part wouldve given Stannis enough time to take King's Landing. 

Preposterous. How long does it take to capture a city, then capture the Red Keep? How much time do you think it would have taken Stannis? Even Tywin took some time taking it and he was allowed in without a battle and the King killed by his own guard.

 

[Celtic Cross]

Yet there they sat, waiting until Tywin and the Lannister army were there with them before they proceeded. 

 

 

And then there is the Stannis issue, they had already turned him down twice and killed and imprisoned lords wanting to join up with him at Bitterbridge, they had done enough to show that they were vehemently opposed to him becoming King.

I never denied the Tyrell disdain at the idea of Stannis being king. However, there's a large difference between not wanting someone to be king and actually clashing armies with them. Mace is ambitious, but not particularly brave.

 

Joffrey is his most powerful ally.

On paper but not in practice. 

 

How long does it take to capture a city, then capture the Red Keep? How much time do you think it would have taken Stannis? Even Tywin took some time taking it and he was allowed in without a battle and the King killed by his own guard.

Depends on how well the garrison fought once Stannis breached the walls, if they even kept their morale and didn't abandon the city already ala Sandor.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Yet there they sat, waiting until Tywin and the Lannister army were there with them before they proceeded. 

Waiting? We have no idea how long they had been there. It clearly could not have been long as Stannis set off from the Stormlands before they left the Reach and they were not too far behind him.

There is not a single piece of evidence suggesting that they would have done nothing.

 

I never denied the Tyrell disdain at the idea of Stannis being king. However, there's a large difference between not wanting someone to be king and actually clashing armies with them. Mace is ambitious, but not particularly brave.

How is he not brave? Did he not rebel and put a crown on Renly, that takes bravery. He might not be highly intelligent (and again he might be, his outward persona may be fake) but there is nothing to indicate that he is a coward.

On paper but not in practice. 

How so? Explain how Tywin is the better ally for Mace than Joffrey/Tommen is?

 

Depends on how well the garrison fought once Stannis breached the walls, if they even kept their morale and didn't abandon the city already ala Sandor.

That is not really answering mu question. I asked for your estimation.

[briantw]

Personally, I think that if Tywin dies at Harrenhal, Mace would have allied with Robb Stark instead of the Lannisters.  He didn't seem interested with joining up with Stannis either way, and Tywin's death absolutely would have swung the war in Robb's favor.  If Robb and the Tyrells were to join forces, Robb could leave their forces and his Riverlands allies to mop up the rudderless Lannisters and deal with Stannis (presumably dealing with Stannis would be a part of their alliance) in the South while he returned to the North and dealt with the Greyjoys.

[Light a wight tonight]

Personally, I think that if Tywin dies at Harrenhal, Mace would have allied with Robb Stark instead of the Lannisters.  He didn't seem interested with joining up with Stannis either way, and Tywin's death absolutely would have swung the war in Robb's favor.  If Robb and the Tyrells were to join forces, Robb could leave their forces and his Riverlands allies to mop up the rudderless Lannisters and deal with Stannis (presumably dealing with Stannis would be a part of their alliance) in the South while he returned to the North and dealt with the Greyjoys.

Robb married to Margaery? Well, they could tell Lord Walder to suck rocks. But marriage to Marg seems to be a death sentence.

[Pod The Rod]

Robb married to Margaery? Well, they could tell Lord Walder to suck rocks. But marriage to Marg seems to be a death sentence.

You don't seriously think the girl is jinxed; her husband's deaths had nothing to do with her. 

I think it would have been a happy couple and an unstoppable alliance, and Lord Frey would just have to deal with it. It wouldn't even have reflected badly on Robb if he'd broken the pact to marry Margaery Tyrell.

[briantw]

Robb married to Margaery? Well, they could tell Lord Walder to suck rocks. But marriage to Marg seems to be a death sentence.

Given that Robb's intentions never really seem to be to sit the Iron Throne but rather to unseat the Lannisters from it, I think he easily could have worked out a deal with the Tyrells that didn't involve marriage to him.  A simple solution, for example, would be to marry Margaery to Edmure and make him the King in the South while Robb remains the King in the North and the two share an alliance.  It could just as easily be someone other than Edmure, of course, but it's easy enough for Robb to make an offer to someone to become King in the South in return for respecting the North's independence.  There's probably dozens of men who would jump at that offer.

[The Commentator]

 

 

Let me just say Arya is by far my favorite character and I don't blame her for not thinking about the big picture since she was 10 or 11 years old in ACOK. But had she used Jaqen's 3 names to kill Tywin & the Mountain she essentially wins the war for Robb. Yeah Cersei & Tyrion with Sansa are still in Kings Landing but at this point in the series w/o Tywin & Jaime captured that army falls apart (maybe Kevan can gain control but idk) and Renly/Stannis easily take Kings Landing in spite of Tyrion's best efforts. There would still be some loose ends to tie up concerning Renly or Stannis, but Robb really had no beef w/ either of them. And w/ the Lannisters gone the North could've easily dealt with the Iron Born.

 

Obviously I know from a literary standpoint if Arya kills Tywin & the Mountain at this point the plot is not as good moving forward, but I'm doing another read through & im at the 3 names part so I figured I would post this.

 

That's because Arya doesn't think about the bigger picture.  She's acting on her feelings and those feelings are mostly hate.  She's sick even then.  Balling on a budget with the Hound and Jaqen made her even sicker.   Tywin gone and Jaime captured, that puts Cersei and Tyrion in charge.  Tyrion won't be able to keep it together long enough before he starts hitting the liquor.  Cersei will give up anything for Jaime.  Robb wins the war. 

[Pod The Rod]

Given that Robb's intentions never really seem to be to sit the Iron Throne but rather to unseat the Lannisters from it, I think he easily could have worked out a deal with the Tyrells that didn't involve marriage to him.  A simple solution, for example, would be to marry Margaery to Edmure and make him the King in the South while Robb remains the King in the North and the two share an alliance.  It could just as easily be someone other than Edmure, of course, but it's easy enough for Robb to make an offer to someone to become King in the South in return for respecting the North's independence.  There's probably dozens of men who would jump at that offer.

I don't think it would have worked like that. The Starks are much more prestigious than the Tullies, if one of them is going on the iron chair it's Robb. 

Of course, another scenario is the Reach secedes as well and the newly independent Tyrells ally with the North by the Robb/Margaery alliance.

[Light a wight tonight]

You don't seriously think the girl is jinxed; her husband's deaths had nothing to do with her. 

I think it would have been a happy couple and an unstoppable alliance, and Lord Frey would just have to deal with it. It wouldn't even have reflected badly on Robb if he'd broken the pact to marry Margaery Tyrell.

Just watch; Tommen will die next. Margaery and Harrenhall are both cursed. It is known. 

[briantw]

I don't think it would have worked like that. The Starks are much more prestigious than the Tullies, if one of them is going on the iron chair it's Robb. 

Of course, another scenario is the Reach secedes as well and the newly independent Tyrells ally with the North by the Robb/Margaery alliance.

I don't think prestige really matters all that much in the scenario I outlined.  Robb would be remaining the King in the North and he'd be making an alliance with another man to be the King in the South, with Margaery marrying that man to be his Queen.  

Alternatively, Robb could just agree to make the Tyrell's oldest son be the King in the South, as it effectively gets Mace the same thing, and he could marry off Margaery to another prominent lord, perhaps Edmure again.  In that scenario, Robb would reign over the North and the Riverlands (maybe the Eyrie too) and the Tyrells would get everything south of that.  Seems like a pretty solid deal for a guy like Mace, especially since he can't really ally with Stannis and the Lannisters don't look so hot with Tywin dead.

[Pod The Rod]

Just watch; Tommen will die next. Margaery and Harrenhall are both cursed. It is known. 

Wasn't Tommen and Joffrey's early death prophesied before Margaery was even born? She's not cursed, her dad's just an idiot for marrying her to these guys.

[Pod The Rod]

 

Alternatively, Robb could just agree to make the Tyrell's oldest son be the King in the South, as it effectively gets Mace the same thing, and he could marry off Margaery to another prominent lord, perhaps Edmure again.  In that scenario, Robb would reign over the North and the Riverlands (maybe the Eyrie too) and the Tyrells would get everything south of that.  Seems like a pretty solid deal for a guy like Mace, especially since he can't really ally with Stannis and the Lannisters don't look so hot with Tywin dead.

This is the scenario that I see, but in this case Margaery has to marry Robb. Mace's goal has always been for her to be a Queen, why would he marry her to a mere Lord when the King in the North is her age and single?

[Seralei]

Too many people jump on the Arya is dumb ship because of hindsight.

i can guarantee literally everyone in the world has been faced with some choice that, in the heat of the moment and dispite knowing certain information, you made a wrong choice or later realized you should have done something different. It doesn't matter how educated you are or anything. In the heat of the moment you acted on emotion or some other feeling that clouded your judgement.

 

That is EXACTLY what this scene is and Arya even later comes to that very same reasoning later on.

 

And considering her age, it's even more believable that she acts on impulse. Horrible things are happening to and around her then.

[Slowpoke Martin]

Too many people jump on the Arya is dumb ship because of hindsight.

Is Arya some random peasant girl or is she the daughter of the Lord Paramount of the North? Bran is YOUNGER and he is able to understand quite well the importance of leadership. People are not calling Arya dumb because she most definitely is not. It was just the overall situation that was handled poorly.

It was the Lannisters who attacked her family, killed her father, and are at war with her brother. She is given 3 death wishes to use however she likes and instead of having Tywin Lannister aka leader of the Lannister side of the war killed, she chooses 3 worthless red shirts to die.

The entire situation was basically a bomb ready to explode but instead, it turned out to be a dud. Careless writing.

[Seralei]

Bran is never even PUT in any position like Arya, that I remember.

And I'm not saying your point isn't true. It is. But the fact still stands that it's a very realistic outcome.

Arya is a very wild person. It's thrown at us over and over again. It makes perfect sense that this situation is no different. She wildly uses her death wishes on people that she hates right there and then rather than think it over first WHICH later she does realize her mistake.

People do this sort of thing all the time. Situations are different but everyone has made this type of mistake as I said in my previous post. Anyone that says they haven't made a decision and then later realized they made a stupid mistake even when information was right in their face is lying. It's called being human.

[Seralei]

Even so. I seriously doubt Tywin's death would have ended the war. If I remember correctly, Roose is the one that planned the RW from the beginning. He could have contacted ANYONE on that side. Be in Cersei, Kevan, or any other Lannister supporter.

[briantw]

This is the scenario that I see, but in this case Margaery has to marry Robb. Mace's goal has always been for her to be a Queen, why would he marry her to a mere Lord when the King in the North is her age and single?

Well, because Robb is already promised to another woman.

Mace wants his daughter to be Queen primarily because that's currently the only path he has to becoming a part of the royal bloodline.  I doubt he would really consider it any different if his eldest son were to become King, and in fact that would probably be preferable because the King would then be Tyrell in name as well as blood.  

In the story Martin tells, it makes sense for Mace to pimp his daughter because she's beautiful and there are several currently unmarried Kings about.  However, if Tywin were to die and Robb were to offer him an alliance predicated on his son becoming King in the South, I think he'd take that deal in a heartbeat since it offers him even more than simply marrying Margaery to the Lannisters could ever offer him.  He would quite literally be in control of half the realm, and could then marry his daughter to a Northern or Riverlands lord to assert Tyrell power in the Northern realm too, or to a fellow Southern lord to solidify a different alliance.