The Santagar/Estermont Conspiracy

[estermonty python]

OK, this is an (admittedly) minor theory, but I haven't seen it anywhere else, so I'll take a shot.  First post, by the way, so be kind!  I suspect Arianne may be wrong about the Knight of Spottswood's loyalty to Prince Doran, and I suspect the Santagars may not be as loyal to the Martells as Arianne assumes.

Part 1: The Turtle of Enormous Girth

A decent bit has been written about the inconsistent Estermont family trees, insofar as they relate to the Baratheons.  We know that Robert/Stannis/Renly's mother was an Estermont, and the Lord of Greenstone is alternately referred to by Stannis as his maternal grandmother and by WOIAF and the ADOD appendix as his great-uncle.  The most sensible theory I've seen is that the aged Lord of Greenstone at the beginning of the books is Eldon Estermont's older brother, and Stannis' grandfather, and he dies at some point before AFFC, making Eldon the current Lord of Greenstone, and Stannis' great-uncle.  The problem with this theory is that, if Cassanna Estermont was the daughter of the Lord of Greenstone at the start of the series (which we have every reason to believe is true, since Stannis said so himself), then if and when that lord died, if Cassana had no brothers, the Lord of Greenstone should have passed to her eldest living son - aka, Stannis.  Now, maybe being self-styled King of Westeros leaves that post vacant; it is also possible (even probable) that, having bent the knee to Joffrey after Blackwater, Eldon Estermont was granted the title of Lord of Greenstone by Joffrey, since Stannis would technically have been stripped of all lands and titles.  Regardless, I think it's fairly clear that George and his editors erred at some point; the appendix of ACOK, for example, lists Eldon as Cassana's brother, rather than her father or uncle.  Eldon is clearly the "legitimate" Lord of Greenstone, according to the Iron Throne.

There's actually a fascinating side theory that I've seen parts of elsewhere that could reconcile most of this confusion.  When Lyonel Baratheon's daughter was spurned by Duncan the Small for Jenny of Oldstones, it is reasonable to suppose, although we don't know for sure, that she had to have married someone.  Because Orys Baratheon is Stannis's grandfather and this unnamed Baratheon's brother, that makes her Stannis' great aunt.  if Lyonel settled for marrying his daughter off to the heir of one of his Lords bannermen instead, which is common, it could very well have been Eldon Estermont, which would make him, simultaneously, Stannis' grandfather and his great-uncle.  That would make Cassana a cousin of Steffon, which isn't particularly surprising, considering both Tywin Lannister and Rickard Stark, who would have been his peers, married cousins in their own right.  I like this theory because it makes what looks like a mistake - referring to Eldon as both Stannis' grandfather and his great-uncle alternately, and makes it wholly intentional.  Alternatively, Eldon could be the progeny of a marriage between Lyonel Baratheon's daughter and the then-Lord of Greenstone, which would have fascinating implications.

So why is this important?  Simple: if Eldon Estermont is the son of Lyonel Baratheon's daughter, or if he married her and she is the mother of Aemon Estermont, his son and heir, then either Eldon or Aemon becomes fourth in line to the Iron Throne, behind Myrcella, Stannis, and Shireen.  Should something happen to the three of them (not exactly a stretch), all of a sudden Eldon Estermont would have the best claim to the throne in Westeros!

Part 2: A Leopard Changes Its Spots

We know Spotted Sylva was one of Arianne's co-conspirators, and that Doran declined to punish her.  Arianne perceives this as weakness, but what if Doran is wary of provoking the Santagars?  Arianne regards the Knight of Spottswood as too loyal and not powerful enough to openly oppose Doran, based on what she perceives to be him "punishing" Sylva by marrying her to Eldon Estermont.  But what if he is playing his own game?  Oberyn is not the only Dornishman killed in King's Landing; Aron Santagar was also murdered by the crowd who rushed the royal retinue after Myrcella was sent to Dorne.  He hasn't really been mentioned since, and certainly not "avenged."  It may be that Symon Santagar believes that extinguishing the Lannisters - including Tommen and Myrcella - could very well lead to a Santagar on the Iron Throne - should Sylva manage to conceive an heir.  Especially considering the Dornish rejection of male-preferred primogeniture, there may be more to that marriage than "punishment" for Spotted Sylva.

Part 3: The Coming Storm

In truth, I don't see any of this playing much of a role in what's to come.  After Tommen, it is obvious the struggle for the Iron Throne will have very little to do with biological right and much more to do with who has the requisite "might" to seize the throne - this also ignores the existence of any Targaryens (because I don't believe the Santagars or Estermonts would believe them to be a threat to return).  Surely if the Estermonts were to be any sort of even minor players in the wars to come, they would have been more carefully developed than "Eldon Estermont is old," which is about the extent of his characterization.  Rather, as they have currently sworn allegiance to the Iron Throne, it seems unlikely that the Estermonts will be eager to join JonCon's rebellion in the Stormlands.  Rather, their lands seem likely to be overrun by the Golden Company, and if I had to put money on any scenario involving the Estermonts, I'd bet on them all being killed before the story is done.  

At least, all the Estermonts in Westeros.

What if they are all killed?  In that case, the new Lord of Greenstone will become...Andrew Estermont, currently protecting Edric Storm somewhere in Essos.  If by some apocalyptic twist of fate Andrew does have a claim to the Iron Throne at some point, I would not be surprised if the man so trustworthy and honorable that Davos puts Edric Storm in his care makes his one and only act as "King" the act of legitimizing Edric, who would immediately jump him in succession and become the Lord of Storm's End, if not the Seven Kingdoms.  It is at least worth noting that Edric's Florent blood could make it likely that the Queen's Men, whose loyalty to Stannis is dubious, would be more likely to throw their weight behind Edric should Stannis, Selyse, and Shireen all meet untimely ends.  

Anyway, that's it.  Not sure how much it will affect the trajectory of things going forward, but its at least interesting to ponder!   

  

 

[WolfgangII]

Wow, really nice. I have always wondered about this issue: Who is next in line for the Stag crown after Shireen?
 I have also read the theory about the name-less Lyonel Baratheon daughter being the mother of Eldon Estermont. I'll say that the future of Storm's End seat rest in who this daughter married into.

I really like your analysis about Andrew Estermont. Imagine some low-level knight, far awway from political power, suddenly becoming an important figure and able to put his name, or the one of his protegè in the throne.

I agree with you that the Estermonts have been scarcely referenced and are probably meaningless in the grand scheme of things. (And of course, the crown will be won by the one with more brute force and cunning, not the right bloodlines), but I found interesting that no one (in the books universe) have address the relation between the Estermonts and the Baratheons and their possibility as heirs of Robert's crown.

 

As a side note, I'm also interested in the Casterly Rock succesion issue, especially the importance of the Lannister-Frey marriage. In summary, the children of Genna Lannister and Emmon Frey are in the shortlist to inherit Riverrun (already theirs), Casterly Rock (after Martyn and Janei) and The Twins (after Edwyn, Black Walder, Walton, Steffon Bryan).

[estermonty python]

Succession issues are great, aren't they?  The Freys really have inserted themselves into the succession lines all over the place.  The "trueborn" heir to Riverrun is also a Frey (Roslin's child), and Walda and Roose's child would be second in line to Winterfell after Ramsay.  

Your Casterly Rock comment assumes that Tyrek Lannister is dead - I think it is probably safe to assume he is very much not dead, and being held by someone (Varys?).  The only other possibility is that he killed himself at the House of Black and White out of guilt over Robert's poisoning.  It seems like a very Varys thing to do to hold a Lannister to either keep Casterly Rock in line or install Tyrek as a puppet Lord of Casterly Rock after the Targaryen restoration.  

I'm actually not sure whether Genna and Emmon even have any living children left, with Tion and Cleos both being dead.  At any rate, I have a hard time imagining Jaime, Daven Lannister, or any of the formidable Lannister bannermen (Strongboar, etc) ceding Casterly Rock to a Frey.  More likely they'd look to install Daven's line as the dominant Lannister line, I'd think.  Then again, to your point, Daven is marrying a Frey himself!

Of course, none of this will matter when all the remaining Lannisters and Freys are killed at Daven's wedding in the Red Wedding 2.0 :-)

 

[Daendrew]

This is brilliant. 

 

[Paxter Redwyne]

Your theory have some holes.

Cassana, mother of stannis had two brothers: eldon and lomas.

Therefore Eldon is Stannis's uncle and great-uncle if his first wife was lady baratheon what duncan spurned as she was sister of ormund, stannis grandfather.

Eldon have one son, aemon and one grandson - alyn.

While Andrew is son of ser lomas estermont, second uncle of stannis, so even if eldon actually married baratheon lady, andrew have no claim to the iron throne.

[estermonty python]

3 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

Cassana, mother of stannis had two brothers: eldon and lomas.

Therefore Eldon is Stannis's uncle and great-uncle if his first wife was lady baratheon what duncan spurned as she was sister of ormund, stannis grandfather.

Eldon have one son, aemon and one grandson - alyn.

While Andrew is son of ser lomas estermont, second uncle of stannis, so even if eldon actually married baratheon lady, andrew have no claim to the iron throne.

It's not confirmed that Eldon is Cassana's brother.  It's one possibility, for sure, but the whole reason this is in issue is that the Estermont family trees have been inconsistent from book to book.  I actually like the notion that Eldon was Cassana's brother, and their father, the former Lord Estermont, married the unnammed daughter of Lyonel.  Under that scenario, Lomas has just as much Baratheon blood as Eldon (and Cassana), and the line of succession would be:

Myrcella

Stannis

Shireen

Eldon

Aemon

Alyn

Lomas

Andrew

 

Again, though, Stannis never calls Eldon his uncle.  He calls the Lord of Greenstone his grandfather at first, and his great uncle later on.

[leonardof]

11 hours ago, estermonty python said:

[...] I'm actually not sure whether Genna and Emmon even have any living children left, with Tion and Cleos both being dead. [...]

According to the wiki, House Frey of Riverrun has two living sons, and ser Cleos Frey left two sons.

[Paxter Redwyne]

8 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Again, though, Stannis never calls Eldon his uncle.  He calls the Lord of Greenstone his grandfather at first, and his great uncle later on.

Feast of Crows appendix says that eldon is stannis's uncle. And Eldon's name appeared first in feast of crows. Lord of Greenstone mentioned in previous books could be father of eldon, who have died circa 300 ac as he was said to be very, very old (could be even 90 years old).

Also if Eldon's father was the one who married baratheon, eldon wouldn't be stannis's great-unce.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

I love this post, my favourite for ages. A rare example of creative brilliance, originality and mad heraldic precision caused by between-books-over-analysis!

[estermonty python]

On 5/8/2016 at 11:22 PM, leonardof said:

According to the wiki, House Frey of Riverrun has two living sons, and ser Cleos Frey left two sons.

Brilliant - thanks!

So that sounds like 4 more Freys for the Brotherhood to butcher at Daven's Riverrun wedding!

 

[estermonty python]

On 5/8/2016 at 11:22 PM, leonardof said:

According to the wiki, House Frey of Riverrun has two living sons, and ser Cleos Frey left two sons.

Brilliant - thanks!

So that sounds like 4 more Freys for the Brotherhood to butcher at Daven's Riverrun wedding!

 

[estermonty python]

On 5/8/2016 at 1:59 AM, Paxter Redwyne said:

Feast of Crows appendix says that eldon is stannis's uncle. And Eldon's name appeared first in feast of crows. Lord of Greenstone mentioned in previous books could be father of eldon, who have died circa 300 ac as he was said to be very, very old (could be even 90 years old).

Also if Eldon's father was the one who married baratheon, eldon wouldn't be stannis's great-unce.

Again, that's the whole genesis for the theory:  different appendices ascribe different familial relationships between Eldon and Cassana.  

That said, Eldon being Cassana's brother (and thus Stannis's uncle), and the former Lord Estermont being both Stannis's grandfather and great uncle makes a great deal of sense, and would be consistent with the succession line above.  For what its worth, if Sylva Santagar conceives a child by him, that child would enter into the line of succession after Alyn Estermont but before Lomas. 

[estermonty python]

On 5/8/2016 at 1:59 AM, Paxter Redwyne said:

Feast of Crows appendix says that eldon is stannis's uncle. And Eldon's name appeared first in feast of crows. Lord of Greenstone mentioned in previous books could be father of eldon, who have died circa 300 ac as he was said to be very, very old (could be even 90 years old).

Also if Eldon's father was the one who married baratheon, eldon wouldn't be stannis's great-unce.

Again, that's the whole genesis for the theory:  different appendices ascribe different familial relationships between Eldon and Cassana.  

That said, Eldon being Cassana's brother (and thus Stannis's uncle), and the former Lord Estermont being both Stannis's grandfather and great uncle makes a great deal of sense, and would be consistent with the succession line above.  For what its worth, if Sylva Santagar conceives a child by him, that child would enter into the line of succession after Alyn Estermont but before Lomas. 

[norwaywolf123]

So the Estermont want to wack Myrcella and Tommen too get Storm's End?

Will an Estermont get it?

Maybe Edric Storm, Robert Baratheon's only acknowlegded bastard.

[estermonty python]

19 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

So the Estermont want to wack Myrcella and Tommen too get Storm's End?

Will an Estermont get it?

Maybe Edric Storm, Robert Baratheon's only acknowlegded bastard.

The only textual evidence of an active conspiracy against the living "Baratheons" is Eldon's marriage to Sylva Santagar.  Beyond that, if the Estermonts wanted Storm's End they'd be best served by working to defeat Stannis (and kill Shireen), and befriending Tommen and his advisors.  

 

Honestly that's not an unlikely calculation; the Estermonts did bend the knee to Joffrey, and a calculating ruler (i.e. not Cersei) would want to install a Stormlander house in Storm's End for legitimacy purposes.

 

That assumes, of course, that the crown is actually in control of Storm's End.  I'm sure this has been said elsewhere (I haven't looked), but I presume Loras Tyrell and Rolland Storm have made some sort of common cause, considering they both were staunchly loyal to Renly, Rolland was part of Davos's plot to smuggle Edric Storm out of Westeros, and Rolland is invested in trying to claim Nightsong and overthrow Phillip Foote, the man who killed his brother.

 

If we're talking endgame, I agree a legitimized Edric Storm is the most likely successor to Storm's End (I'm, assuming for the sake of argument that Myrcella and Shireen bite it).  Legitimizing Edric could also be an olive branch to bring the Florents back into the fold, especially since Garlan Tyrell has to give up his siege of Brightwater Keep to fight the Iron Islanders.

[Lord Wraith]

On 5/9/2016 at 5:17 PM, norwaywolf123 said:

So the Estermont want to wack Myrcella and Tommen too get Storm's End?

Will an Estermont get it?

Maybe Edric Storm, Robert Baratheon's only acknowlegded bastard.

Edric Storm was always my guess if the Baratheon line is wiped.

OP interesting work.