SER SHADRICH, HIS ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES.. (Morgarth, Byron, Creighton, Illifer)

[The Sleeper]

@sweetsunray

I don't know how horrible Brienne's ability is to assess people. If you distrust it completely then the reader's assessment would be randomrandom, not the opposite of what Brienne thinks.

The way I see it Brienne's blanket response to anyone is wariness and suspicion which is shaped by her own experiences. The way I see it Creighton and Illifer would be more interested in a roof over their heads and meals provided rather than have high ambitions of winning fortunes through ransoms. And she doesn't initially trust them, but she correctly assesses that they are no physical threat to her. Illifer's experience and her reputation would suggest to him that she is more of a threat to them rather than vice versa. And her asking random people on the road does not suggest that she knows what she is doing. If they meant ill to her they could have killed her while she slept. Her horse and armor would be worth more than anything either had seen in their lives.

Shadrich on his part exposes how naive she is and she is assesses him as a potential physical threat. From his own perspective, he isn't doing anything wrong. He is after all hunting a suspected regicide who is wanted by the crown. It would have been far more probable for him to find someone like minded on the road and he had the foresight that he both might need help securing and transporting Sansa and that he and other potential hunters would trip all over eachother working in opposition. Hence his overture and his sarcasm at Brienne's protestations.

In the end she doesn't trust any of them as she leaves in the middle of the night.

With Nimble Dick she was in the wilds far from any help and would have been lost. She had cause to be wary due to the circumstances where she was vulnerable. In Vargo Hoat's they had already beaten her and taken her captive. It looks more like a stab in the dark out of desperation rather than trust.

The whole atmosphere at the crossroads inn was screaming something is wrong here. Particularly after all the hanged people. And that is from Brienne's perspective. They didn't know what. After all it was a bunch of kids and a teenager. Sure they could have moved along. But neither Hyle or Meribald offered such an opinion.

The other issue is that ASoIaF does have buffoons like ser Creighton and hapless knights like ser Illifer. The plot regarding Sansa having a bounty on her head necessitates the existence of ser Shadrich. And frankly anyone looking for Sansa for he own benefit would be far more likely to view Brienne like lady Stoneheart.

[sweetsunray]

38 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

@sweetsunray

I don't know how horrible Brienne's ability is to assess people. If you distrust it completely then the reader's assessment would be randomrandom, not the opposite of what Brienne thinks.

The way I see it Brienne's blanket response to anyone is wariness and suspicion which is shaped by her own experiences. The way I see it Creighton and Illifer would be more interested in a roof over their heads and meals provided rather than have high ambitions of winning fortunes through ransoms. And she doesn't initially trust them, but she correctly assesses that they are no physical threat to her. Illifer's experience and her reputation would suggest to him that she is more of a threat to them rather than vice versa. And her asking random people on the road does not suggest that she knows what she is doing. If they meant ill to her they could have killed her while she slept. Her horse and armor would be worth more than anything either had seen in their lives.

Shadrich on his part exposes how naive she is and she is assesses him as a potential physical threat. From his own perspective, he isn't doing anything wrong. He is after all hunting a suspected regicide who is wanted by the crown. It would have been far more probable for him to find someone like minded on the road and he had the foresight that he both might need help securing and transporting Sansa and that he and other potential hunters would trip all over eachother working in opposition. Hence his overture and his sarcasm at Brienne's protestations.

In the end she doesn't trust any of them as she leaves in the middle of the night.

With Nimble Dick she was in the wilds far from any help and would have been lost. She had cause to be wary due to the circumstances where she was vulnerable. In Vargo Hoat's they had already beaten her and taken her captive. It looks more like a stab in the dark out of desperation rather than trust.

The whole atmosphere at the crossroads inn was screaming something is wrong here. Particularly after all the hanged people. And that is from Brienne's perspective. They didn't know what. After all it was a bunch of kids and a teenager. Sure they could have moved along. But neither Hyle or Meribald offered such an opinion.

The other issue is that ASoIaF does have buffoons like ser Creighton and hapless knights like ser Illifer. The plot regarding Sansa having a bounty on her head necessitates the existence of ser Shadrich. And frankly anyone looking for Sansa for he own benefit would be far more likely to view Brienne like lady Stoneheart.

Look, you don't need to explain me the reasons why Brienne distrusts or trusts the other, from her perspective. I can get all that, just like I can get Theon's POV and thinking, and still have my own opinion.

If she says to Vargo Hoat what she told him at first meeting in the circumstances when they met, then we know she's clueless. At the moment I'm writing an essay on the unreliability of Brienne's POV: she doesn't get jokes, she prefers literal over metaphorical, she's a chatterbox in her head but complely awkward making social interaction mistakes and silent, she barely looks at eyes or faces, she wants specific rather than general, she can't pull of a lie and she's not any good at detecting them. We get reminders to these peculiarities of her whenever she remembers something of Septa Roella's comments. And we also get Podrick as a mirror of how she was as a child (and Podrick may behave and talk like a 7 year old, he's 13 however). Basically Brienne is handicapped in getting communication and social interaction. Because of that, she can only mistrust everyone by definition, but is still easily beguiled by manners and courtesy and an offer to share.

And yes, my conclusion is that you do not get any definitive clues from her POV to assess anyone's trustworthiness without sticking to that character and see that character's story through as we do with Nimble Dick. Only because we have definite evidence of Nimble Dick's character through his manner of death, can we read his actions and words independently from Brienne's POV, and fill in the likely social gaps that her POV leave out and interprete his behaviour on how he intended it, rather than how she takes it. Therefore a lot of the shady characters she meets for only a short while are ambiguous. Creighton and Illifer are less fools and harmless than she thinks. Shadrich may be more positive than she thinks. And Lem and Thoros are probably bantering with each other over the Hound's helm. The most important part of what someone communicates is not what they say, but how they say it. And she focuses mostly on what they say, not how. Sometimes we get a small how in there, but it's drowned in the what they said. George thus uses her to push the reader into believing one thing about character x and the other thing about character y, and the resulting impression is highly suspect.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

@The Sleeper I'm having some issues with the quoting system, but getting back to the boar.  I don't think you are wrong to make that regime change association with the boar, but we also have to look at it first and foremost in the context of Brienne's quest to find Sansa.  Hidden danger and upheaval are certainly hinted at in the Vale arc.  LF does not have things as under control as he claims.  He thrives in chaos, but this probably going to be way more chaos than he can handle.  The boar can definitely have multi-layered meaning.  I still conclude the boar is a literal person as well because the fox and the 2 sparrows point to literal individuals.  What you said still fits very well in the context too.  I do believe those people are tied to the fall of the current regime, both House Arryn and LF potentially.  I still lean toward Shadrich turning out to be a helper because of other hints, regardless of his identity.  The clustering of these symbols is very important to determining friend or foe. Meribald and EB are clearly friendlies.  They don't seem to be in the same category of religious as the High Sparrow and faith militant, who have a very rigid and harsh theocracy in mind enforced by violence.  Meribald seems truly humble and generous.  His feet are black and calloused from his penance and he gives away valuable oranges (like the orange of Shadrich's hair might indicate selflessness) to people just because he has them to give.  EB doesn't seem to be judgmental about Brienne and shows much empathy for suffering.  The QI just seems like an idyllic hippy commune interpretation of their faith.  If those two sparrows are friendlies, then by association the fox and the boar are likely friendlies too.  We have all four embodied in the friendly pious dwarf:  short, red nose, holy brother, favors the smith, and has dug graves. Brienne buys him a bowl of crab (crab!) stew in exchange has the conversation that sends her on her way to Nimble Dick Crabb (who leads her to the false crab).  Brienne may have inadvertently led Shadrich to the QI (and thus on the path to finding and stealing/rescuing the real crab) while she's off on her trajectory to meeting the BwB.  Brienne would probably be very easy to trail as she is so distinctive and there were people who witnessed her on the road.  If Shadrich did make it there, I sincerely doubt EB or Sandor would give any information or help someone they believed wanted Sansa for a ransom.  Hell, EB wouldn't even tell Brienne anything except that she'd actually been trailing Arya and the Hound and I'm sure he never doubted her sincerity for legitimately wanting to help Sansa.  For all those reasons, if Shadrich is indeed a friend, then we must ask ourselves why is he a friend?  What is his stake in this?  It's not that there's any smoking gun on anyone's identity here, but we do have reasons why we can eliminate some people and we do have heaps of circumstantial evidence that we can start to construct a profile of who would be a friendly, who fits the timeline of events, who fits geographically, who also fits the symbolism we can corroborate with known people, who fits the (at least some) physical description, and who has a skill set that works in this situation.  If Shadrich is just Shadrich and he's here to help, we have a whole new character to learn about that will still make sense with all those things.  If Shadrich is just a cover, we can still use what we know to narrow down the possibilities and come up with a most likely candidate.  Which is why we need TWOW to come out already so we can know for sure!  

@sweetsunray I had thought about Hyle Hunt and I'm of two minds about him.  He could indeed just be looking to hook up with the Tarth heiress. He certainly has a flippant attitude toward her at times and sounds a bit like Jaime.  She's certainly right to have misgivings about him since he was part of that cruel prank that could have ended in rape.  I also wonder if listening to Lord Tarly's extreme misogynist insults to her and him saying she would have no pity for being raped because she would deserve it for being so unnatural.  He even thinks she should get raped to teach her a lesson.  That's why Hunt leaves Tarly's service.  He's dismissed after that comment for being insolent, so maybe he stood up to Tarly for her?  Maybe he legitimately felt bad about the prank and realized they were stupid knights of summer acting like frat boys.  Most of them died or got scattered to the wind after Renly's death and here Brienne is on a truly noble and just cause.  They were playing at being ideal knights and Brienne really is an ideal knight in character.  I'm not saying Hunt is now self-sacrificing, but he may have been shamed and inspired to try to be helpful to her.  He didn't have to follow her, he chose to, which could be for selfish reasons or helpful.  I guess he's never been in a position yet to show he is truly trying to help for selfless reasons.  When they are being hanged, Brienne at least is motivated by trying to save Pod to do something that would be painful for her.  Hyle is no hero here, he is trying to save himself and only by extension would save the other two.  He still feels on the fence to me.  Comes back to that riders of a chestnut courser are helpers idea.  Sandor rescuing Sansa in the bread riots and Brynden Tully definitely fall into the helper catagory.  I'm almost 100% certain Shadrich will be a helper.  Hyle Hunt might eventually be truly helpful, but maybe not yet.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

And this is Brienne in a nutshell and I think it's one of the funnier bits in her story...

Quote

The way up proved to be a steep stony path hidden within a cleft in the rock. Most of it was natural, but here and there steps had been carved to ease the climb. Sheer walls of rock, eaten away by centuries of wind and spray, hemmed them in to either side. In some places they had assumed fantastic shapes. Nimble Dick pointed out a few as they climbed. "There's an ogre's head, see?" he said, and Brienne smiled when she saw it. "And that there's a stone dragon. T'other wing fell off when my father was a boy. Above it, that's the dugs drooping down, like some hag's teats." He glanced back at her own chest.

"Ser? My lady?" said Podrick. "There's a rider."

"Where?" None of the rocks suggested a rider to her.

"On the road. Not a rock rider. A real rider. Following us. Down there." He pointed.

  Honestly, it's probably something I would do.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

I had thought about Hyle Hunt and I'm of two minds about him.  He could indeed just be looking to hook up with the Tarth heiress. He certainly has a flippant attitude toward her at times and sounds a bit like Jaime.  She's certainly right to have misgivings about him since he was part of that cruel prank that could have ended in rape.  I also wonder if listening to Lord Tarly's extreme misogynist insults to her and him saying she would have no pity for being raped because she would deserve it for being so unnatural.  He even thinks she should get raped to teach her a lesson.  That's why Hunt leaves Tarly's service.  He's dismissed after that comment for being insolent, so maybe he stood up to Tarly for her?  Maybe he legitimately felt bad about the prank and realized they were stupid knights of summer acting like frat boys.  Most of them died or got scattered to the wind after Renly's death and here Brienne is on a truly noble and just cause.  They were playing at being ideal knights and Brienne really is an ideal knight in character.  I'm not saying Hunt is now self-sacrificing, but he may have been shamed and inspired to try to be helpful to her.  He didn't have to follow her, he chose to, which could be for selfish reasons or helpful.  I guess he's never been in a position yet to show he is truly trying to help for selfless reasons.  When they are being hanged, Brienne at least is motivated by trying to save Pod to do something that would be painful for her.  Hyle is no hero here, he is trying to save himself and only by extension would save the other two.  He still feels on the fence to me.  Comes back to that riders of a chestnut courser are helpers idea.  Sandor rescuing Sansa in the bread riots and Brynden Tully definitely fall into the helper catagory.  I'm almost 100% certain Shadrich will be a helper.  Hyle Hunt might eventually be truly helpful, but maybe not yet.

By the little hints we get at his wry smile when she takes a barb at him, him offering to help her find the Stinking Goose, etc, and yes his comment that this and that person died, and that the game wasn't intended to harm makes me think he recognized how they were in the wrong, but that they weren't necessarily bad or evil guys either. In the lecture that Tarly gives her at Highgarden, Tarly says something along the lines of some being less honorable than others. In other words, while the bet itself is bad, it means that there were several who participated with the intention to acquire her for a bride. I would say logically that at least two who started it had honest courtship intentions (even if somewhat mercenary). How do those things go? Two men, friends, considering "Well, she might not be the prettiest one around, but she has her charms." They may even find it intersting that she's a fighter. Not all men want a girly-girly wife. Some men would find it appealing she might understand a part of their knight-mindset. If Jaime likes her blue eyes, Hyle seems to like her lips. So, two friends have their eye on the same "prize". How to solve the inevitable rivalry between pals? They make a bet. By making it an official competition between them they lower the rivalry feelings. Competition between pals is ok. Rivarly is not. The third cries they're fools because obviously she's besotted with Renly, but joins for the fun of the competition itself. A few others learn of it and think it good fun. And then when the prize money becomes steeper the less honorable enter, and they're in over their heads, and it becomes dangerous for Brienne.

Hyle imo starts out bitter about it when we see him in the arc. That bitterness imo comes because he probably was one of the two with the more honorable intentions from the start. Not only does he end up being jilted, but put on guard duty and demoted. Both things suck, but even more when he never courted her for the bet to begin with, but to win her. On the other hand, he does seem understanding that her feelings were hurt. He doesn't blame her. It's more like, you were hurt, and it was stupid, but had no ill intentions, and some of those guys are dead or lost a limb, so don't continue to hate or punish us for it. I think he first wants to keep an eye on her. Then he witnesses her taking 3 Bloody Mummers down and is in awe of that. Tarly does his mysoginy talk and Hyle pretty much must have said "FU" to Tarly, but he'll be damned it he'll reveal to her that he's interested or does it to regain his honor about the betting game of the past. So, he says he's doing it to have one over his brother and the money for capturing Sansa. 

I wouldn't say he's in love with her or loves her, and Tarth is part of the inducement and appeal. I wouldn't ship them though Maybe he can find a girl to run an inn with I do hope he's alive still. I think he might, because the BwB mention how Tarly hanged some of theirs. Tarly left Maidenpool to help ut Mace with Marg's arrest (so only a reserve garrison). Maidenpool might be of strategic interest to any grander plans of LS to retake the RL for the Tullies and Starks. And Hyle used to be the commander at one of the gates. Now ain't that interesting. Speculative possibility on what might happen: Hyle Hunt and a BwB in disguise as Beric return to Maidenpool, with Hyle claiming he caught Dondarrion finally, and he lets BwB in through the gate. Mooton might not be totally ungrateful, that is, if they don't sack it, to prevent his daughter from marrying Dickon.

[jthurman14]

From the OP. Am I reading it correctly you are asserting SS is actually HR and he has enlisted EB, Sandor and Meribald in a rescue of Sansa in the Vale? All based on info from Brienne’s arc. That her seemingly benign though useful encounters with SS, EB and SC are also pregnant with foreshadowing of a hidden identity of a major non-pov character? I will first say, bravo, I think you are onto something. Second I give it a 30% chance of being part of the story GRRM has/is writing. And lastly that rescuing Sansa is one of several possibilities.   

 

The symbolism, a magic mouse on blue and brown is a strong clue. The disguise, dyed hair, beard and a fake name? Not being dressed like a crannogman? To steal a phrase, that is a thin disguise. Really only effective for those that do not look too closely. Who might know HR by sight outside of his lands? When you think about it almost anyone from the Rebellion days or the Tourney at Harrenhall , Jamie, Randle Tarly and Petyr come to mind. (LSH would know him, but more on that later)  The thin disguise lends credence to a glamor and is another strong clue.

 

The seemingly obvious reason for HR being on the road, he is looking for Sansa. Could be that he was at KL around the time of the PW. Sent there by info contained in Rob’s letter. Or more probable after the PW when word of her escape reached him..

 

Of course SS could just be SS. Perfectly plausible reasons for him to be where he was when he was. With all the hints and suggestions to him being a Crannogman we could suppose that he is. Just not THE crannogman. That would still make for an interesting character. Regardless he is a capable agent, a survivor, keen mind, sharp wit.  

[sweetsunray]

22 hours ago, jthurman14 said:

When you think about it almost anyone from the Rebellion days or the Tourney at Harrenhall , Jamie, Randle Tarly and Petyr come to mind. (LSH would know him, but more on that later)  The thin disguise lends credence to a glamor and is another strong clue.

Mace Tyrell was mentioned to be at the Tourney of HH, but not Tarly insofar I could find when checking.

The Tully's are conspicuously not mentioned as being present at the Tourney. There's no evidence a Tully was at the Tourney. Absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence, but Lord Hoster has good reasons to snub the Tourney. Hoster and Tywin were negotiating a marriage between Lysa and Jaime. Aerys has Jaime become a KG even before the start of the Tourney, taking Tywin's heir away and Hoster's prospected son-in-law. If Hoster, Lysa and Catelyn aren't there (and Edmure is still a boy), then why would Petyr be there? Either Petyr was mending of his wounds of his duel with Brandon, or he was already sent off to the Vale as far away as possible from Hoster's daughters.

Jaime became KG and was whisked away rapidly to KL. Couldn't even joust.

Meera tells how the little crannogman witnesses this making of KG, so they were both there, but what chance is there for Jaime to have even noticed HR who is then still unaffiliated, just by himself, watching at everything going on, while he's excited over becoming KG. But he's gone already before HR has trouble with the sqiures and Lyanna beats them up.

None of the people you mention as able to recognize HR seem very unlikely to have known and met him. Only Catelyn would have known and seen him during her wedding with Ned Stark, and Edmure might recognize him as a consequence. There would be some Northerners, but most of them are dead... except for Maege Mormont and her bear islanders and she did go into the Neck, ditto Glovers, some men of Barrowton but they're at WF and the Hornwoods are all dead. Ned, Lyanna and Brandon dead, Benjen missing. The 3 squires might recognize him, but who were they? We only know they squired for a Frey, a Blount and a hedgehog.

I can think Shella Whent as one who could recognize him. Lem Lemoncloak if he's Richard Mormount, EB might have glimpsed him at the Battle of the Trident.

And on top of that you have people with selective memory. Take Arya for example. She rode with a train of people from WF to KL. Jaime was searching her in the woods. She testified at Darry's before a mass of people. People didn't pay her any mind. They had eyes for the Hand, and Joff's betrothed. And even Jaime has to think hard afterwards what Arya looked like. He only remembered enough to know that the girl said to be Arya wasn't Arya (aka Jeyne Poole). Only the Hound recognized her on the spot, before Harwin (who helped her ride her pony for years at WF) could recognize her. Even a thin disguise is helpful enough in an area where nobody expects that person to be. Last thing on Harwin's mind was to meet Ned's daughter Arya Underfoot at the Inn of the Kneeling Man in the Riverlands with Lem, Tom and Anguy, and so he did not recognize her on the spot.

For many non Northerners, HR was some inconspicuos little man at the Tourney who didn't even joust or participated in any conquest. Their eyes wuld have been on Lyanna Stark and Brandon Stark, aside from Rhaegar, Aerys, Robert Baratheon, not HR. And he'd have been one of Ned's guards, with people's eyes more on Ned and Robert.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

Crannogmen are also well known to rarely leave the Neck if at all, so no one is expecting or looking for a crannogman.  It's not in anyone's POV or secondary character's dialog that it even occurs to anyone that Shadrich could be a crannogman.  Plus no one has seen HR since returning from the ToJ and most people who personally met him are dead.  Makes sense he doesn't need an excessive amount of disguising since he's highly unlikely to meet anyone who could ID him.  

[Nevets]

The biggest problem with the theory of Shadrich=Howland, other than the utter lack of evidence in support is: What the hell is he doing on the road from Kings Landing to Duskendale in the company of a skinflint merchant?  As opposed to all of the more logical  and reasonable places for him to be, such as the Neck, northern Riverlands, Barrowlands, or Winterfell, helping his fellow Northmen, who can clearly use it and who he is in a position to help.  There is no reason for him to be where he is, doing what he is doing, and saying what he is saying if he is really Howland Reed.  For that reason, I think that he is actually who he claims to be:  a defeated knight looking for a payday.  And, to be honest, I have seen nothing at all to convince me of even the barest possibility that Morgrath=Elder Brother, or, especially, Byron=Sandor.  When GRRM does secret identity, he gives us something concrete to go on.  I see nothing here.

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

What the hell is he doing on the road from Kings Landing to Duskendale in the company of a skinflint merchant?

He's on the road to Duskendale for the same reasons as Brienne is - getting info or lead on Sansa escaping KL. But you can do it the subtle way, or you can do it the total ineffective wave-giant-flag way as Brienne does - ask any and everyone you meet. That counts for whomever he is. Even if Shadrich = Shadrich.

[Crashingwater]

Howland Reed on jousting:

"The wolf maid saw them too, and pointed them out to her brothers. 'I could find you a horse, and some armor that might fit,' the pup offered. The little crannogman thanked him, but gave no answer. His heart was torn. Crannogmen are smaller than must, but just as proud. The lad was no knight, no more than any of his people. We sit a boat more offtent then a horse, and our hands are made for oars, not lances. Much as he wished to have his vengeance, he freared he would only make a fool of himself and shame his people. The quiet wolf had offered the little crannogman a place in his tent that night, but before he slept he knelt on the lakeshore, looking across the water to where the Isle of Faces would be. and said a prayer to the old gods of north and Neck..."

 

Ser Shadrich on jousting:

“Will you be seeking wings?” the Royce girl said.

“A mouse with wings would be a silly sight.”

 

Howland Reed being compared to squires:

"Sometimes the knights are the monsters, Bran. The little crannogman was walking across the field, enjoying the warm spring day and harming none, when he was set upon by three squires. They were none older than fifteen, yet even so they were bigger than him , all three. This was their world, as they saw it, and he had no right to be there. They snatched away his spear and kicked him to the ground, cursing him for a frogeater."

 

Ser Shadrich being compared to squires:

“We mice are quiet creatures.” Ser Shadrich was so short that he might have been taken for a squire, but his face belonged to a much older man. She saw long leagues in the wrinkles at the corner of his mouth, old battles in the scar beneath his ear, and a hardness behind the eyes that no boy would ever have. This was a man grown. Even Randa overtopped him, though.

 

[jthurman14]

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 11:35 AM, sweetsunray said:

Jaime became KG and was whisked away rapidly to KL. Couldn't even joust.

Meera tells how the little crannogman witnesses this making of KG, so they were both there, but what chance is there for Jaime to have even noticed HR who is then still unaffiliated, just by himself, watching at everything going on, while he's excited over becoming KG. But he's gone already before HR has trouble with the sqiures and Lyanna beats them up.

None of the people you mention as able to recognize HR seem very unlikely to have known and met him. Only Catelyn would have known and seen him during her wedding with Ned Stark, and Edmure might recognize him as a consequence. There would be some Northerners, but most of them are dead... except for Maege Mormont and her bear islanders and she did go into the Neck, ditto Glovers, some men of Barrowton but they're at WF and the Hornwoods are all dead. Ned, Lyanna and Brandon dead, Benjen missing. The 3 squires might recognize him, but who were they? We only know they squired for a Frey, a Blount and a hedgehog.

I can think Shella Whent as one who could recognize him. Lem Lemoncloak if he's Richard Mormount, EB might have glimpsed him at the Battle of the Trident.

 

Wouldn't Jaime know HR from the sack of KL during rebellion? When Ned found Jamie of the throne, Howland was likely have been there? Your point is taken, a 'thin disguise' would serve with someone who may have only seen him briefly.  

Shadritch was last seen in the Vale, correct? He would have to pass thru the Riverlands to get Sansa back to KL? Or if HR would have to pass thru the Rivelands to reach the Neck or the North. Now if LSH was to come upon him, that would be a nice turn in the plot.  

[sweetsunray]

15 minutes ago, jthurman14 said:

Wouldn't Jaime know HR from the sack of KL during rebellion? When Ned found Jamie of the throne, Howland was likely have been there? Your point is taken, a 'thin disguise' would serve with someone who may have only seen him briefly.  

Shadritch was last seen in the Vale, correct? He would have to pass thru the Riverlands to get Sansa back to KL? Or if HR would have to pass thru the Rivelands to reach the Neck or the North. Now if LSH was to come upon him, that would be a nice turn in the plot.  

Shadrich was last seen in the Vale, hired by LF who just returned from Gulltown for the Corbray wedding. I'd say Shadrich, Byron and Morgarth arrived at the Vale by ship at Gulltown. He would leave by ship again, even if he is HR. The high road is too dangerous as it goes through the Mountains of the Moon with the mountain clans. Besides, I believe those clans will attack the Bloody Gate and win this time, for a disaster concerning an avalanche coming from the Giant's Lance mountain to wreak havoc at the Gates of the Moon (castle where LF, Sansa are now) at the bottom of the mountain. Have an earthquake be the trigger for the avalanche and the battlements of the Bloody Gate will be damaged. LF has been so busy plotting about buying lords to his side, that he completely neglected the mountain clans, who are newly armed, battle trained and experienced hierarchical leadership as useful. In all that mayhem the official Arryn line imo will die out, LF will lose his head on a spike, and Sansa will be taken by Shadrich out of there. They'd leave via a port with a ship. George would not reveal Shadrich's true motivations until after she's taken.

If he keeps up the ambiguity and have Shadrich seem mercenary all that time, then I'm pretty sure Shadrich will turn out to be a benefactor in disguises. If Shadrich gains Sansa's confidence and convinces her to flee with him I'd expect Sansa to land in hot water. And I want to know his courser's gender. If it's a stallion, he's bad news. If it's a mare, those three are saviors.

So, in case Shadrich is who Brienne believes he is, he'd take a ship from the Vale shore to Maidenpool/Duskendale/KL. The BwB might end up retaking Maidenpool for the RL. In case he's sa savior and/or HR, he'd either get her to Yohn Royce (who didn't go to the Tourney) at Runestone, or takes a ship directly to White Harbor.

[jthurman14]

Stating that Shadritch is the typical character that GRRM loves to build interest in and then kill off, however heroic his death maybe, is obvious. Same for EB and Meribald. So many possibilities it is easy to picture a rescue/kidnapping happening, Shadritch certainly does not need to be HR to be interesting.

Did I miss any serious argument that Sandor could not be there? Glamour or not? I thought the Glamour idea was a bit tinfoil and he does not need to do much more than hide his face or just not walk up to any lords or ladies that would know him from KL to keep from being recognized. I do see him having to come back into Sansa's arc at some point. She was the first to lose her dog(Dire wolf) it would be fitting if she got a new dog after her own return to the Stark team. (Meaning Lady was killed when Sansa betrayed her family by lying for Joff. That somehow she redeems herself to the Stark cause somehow) sorry a little off OP.    

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

15 minutes ago, jthurman14 said:

Shadritch certainly does not need to be HR to be interesting.

No he doesn't.  GRRM is certainly making him very interesting, there's no way I think he's just a typical sell sword or hedge knight.  There's a lot of signs we're supposed to pay close attention to this guy and then by association the people that turn up with him:  Morgarth and Byron.  They are grouped together in AFFC and then again in TWOW.  We're supposed to see them, but then forget about them as Sansa's attention gets directed elsewhere.  

21 minutes ago, jthurman14 said:

Did I miss any serious argument that Sandor could not be there? Glamour or not? I thought the Glamour idea was a bit tinfoil and he does not need to do much more than hide his face or just not walk up to any lords or ladies that would know him from KL to keep from being recognized.

Well the glamour idea would be really out there, if it hadn't already been used by GRRM before in a very similar situation in The Mystery Knight.  A tourney hosted by a former master of coin that is using the tourney as a cover for some scheming.  There's some hedge knights and one of them is Blood Raven under a glamour as "Maynard Plumm" there to uncover the Blackfyre plot.  We know Mel used a glamour to not only change Mance's face but also his height into Rattleshirt.  Glamouring is a cross-cultural form of magic and HR is a powerful magician.  He not only knows the magic of his people, but also magic from the green men on the Isle of Faces.  On the QI there are plenty of bones and rubies to make a pretty strong glamour.  So there is a precedence of glamours in a very similar context, making it a little less tinfoil IMO.  Sandor has been able to hide his face in a limited capacity like when he's trying to get Arya into the Twins, the events we're talking about here are going to last for more than a month probably.  Byron, Morgarth, and Shadrich show up with LF when Sansa has arrived at the Gates from the Eyrie.  The tourney gets scheduled sometime later.  Sandor would have to be unrecognizable to people that would know him from KL, both LF and Sansa, for a long period of time.  Remember, when we first meet them, they've been conversing with Petyr for probably hours when Sansa walks in.  Just having a covered face would be more arousing of suspicion in that kind of environment and it wouldn't take LF but a moment to realize who he is.  The three are there, but they probably don't yet have a plan or opportunity to remove Sansa without being immediately caught.  We've already seen that in every tourney in the books, big and unexpected events happen at tourneys so something is going down for sure.  

The identity of one is dependent on the identities of the others.  They all have to work together to make the theory work.  If it is true, then everything falls into place pretty easily.  There really isn't a reason why Sandor wouldn't be there if he had the opportunity to do so.  He is physically capable, the timeline works, he's in the unique position of being able to positively ID her for the other two, and I would say his feelings are strong enough that he would never sit idly by and let someone else rescue Sansa.  They both have running parallels in their stories to make it likely a reunion is imminent.  KL: they both are reduced to animal identities, a dog and a little bird/dove for the Lannisters.  Later they evolve back into people identities with lower social status as a theme of humility:  Alayne Stone, LF's bastard and a gravedigger, a silent novice doing penance.  The next part just makes sense that they will evolve back into reclaiming Sansa and Sandor as reborn true identities.  In order for Sansa to reclaim her true self, she has to be in a safe place or with allies because she's still wanted for regicide in the outside world.  As far as her replacement for Lady, that is Sandor.  He shows up exactly at the moment in Ned's chapter when he kills Lady.  King Robert says "Get her a dog, she'll be happier for it."  In her KL arc, Sandor is her primary protector and support, until things just go horribly wrong at BoBW.  He's made promises to her to protect her and die for her, so it does make perfect sense he will be back in her arc to make good on that promise.    

    

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

@Ashes Of Westeros

@sweetsunray

I just had a forehead-slapping moment yesterday.  There's not just a precedence set in the Mystery Knight for a glamor being used in this context.  It's already happening in ADWD.  I can't believe I derped about what Mance is actually going to do with the glamor Mel gave him:  he's going to use it to save a "Stark" daughter (in this case Jeyne Poole as (f)Arya.  So the glamor was initially used to switch identities between Rattleshirt and Mance, so it seemed like Mance had been executed.  While it's under difference circumstances, the real Hound is supposed to be dead to the world, but inadvertantly the Hound identity was taken up by an imposter:  Lem Lemoncloak.  So we have a parallel of identities being switched with dead men, both literal and symbollic.

Now we have another layer of identity changing in that Mance in the appearance of Rattleshirt calls himself Abel (a singer), who will infiltrate with the spearwives Bolton controlled Winterfell.  If my theory is right about Byron, Sandor has taken the appearance of someone buried on the QI who probably had another name at some point, and calls himself Byron to infiltrate the Gates of the Moon.  We've already made parallels with Sandor and the freefolk / First Men custom of "wife stealing" during the BotBW and with the symbolism of Dog plucking up the crab in previous posts.  The name Abel is an anagram for Bael, as in Bael the Bard, the infamous wife-stealer of a Stark daughter.  Petyr Baelish, (Bael-ish) being the false wife-stealer in the Vale, so that stands to reason there must be a "real" Bael if a false one exists in Sansa's situation.

In both situations we have unwanted usurpers controlling a great house and region through scheming, murder, and a using a puppet to give themselves an air of legitimacy.  For the Boltons, it's using the marriage of (f)Arya to Ramsey Bolton.  For LF, it's using his marriage to Lysa to become Lord Protector over SR then marrying his "daughter" to the next heir, Harold Hardyng.  In both situations the bride there is something false about the bride's identity.  There's an inversion in that an imposter, Jeyne Poole, is playing a legitimate Stark and a real Stark, Sansa, is playing an imposter daughter/betrothed.  There's another layer of inversion in the brides and grooms.  The potential-bride, Sansa Stark has become the bastard, Alayne Stone and the groom, Ramsey Bolton, started as the bastard Ramsey Snow and was legitimized.  Harold Hardyng being a distant Arryn relative is SR's unlikely heir through an accident of fate.  Arya, being the youngest female Stark, would be the least likely to inherit Winterfell, but yet here "Arya" is the heir and solidifying the Bolton's hold on Winterfell.  LF hopes to marry Sansa to Harry to play a long-game of control in not just the Vale, but ultimately in the North as well.  I think we can say there's enough parallels between the two situations to make some safe predictions based on what happens in one.

The spearwives accompanying Mance/Abel are also under false identities as Abel's relatives there to perform with him at the wedding feast.  Their names are Rowan, Holly, Squirrel, Willow-Witch Eye, Frenya and Myrtle.  Certainly stands out that there's lots of tree names and all of them have god and goddess associations in mythology.  There's also connections with the Underworld and Winter.  Interestingly, there's a few similarities in these trees with weirwoods, whether by red and white colorations in the flowers, berries, and or bark.  Willows also produce sap, much like the weirwoods, though it is white, not red.  

Rowan:  associated with the Greek goddess of youth, Hebe.  Interestingly in Norse mythology, the rowan tree is credited with saving the god Thor from being swept away by a rushing river in the Underworld by bending over and helping him get back to shore.  It's also the tree from which the first woman was formed.  In the psychological sense, the Maidens Sansa and Arya play roles in saving Sandor from Hell in his Hound identity and send him on the trajectory for winding up on the QI.  (f)Arya, Jeyne Poole, also helps Theon reclaim his identity from the Reek persona and break from the Boltons.  In a sense, both Theon and Sandor wind up on a metaphoric "shore" of safety.  Theon and Jeyne leap off the walls of Winterfell to safely land on a snow bank.  Sandor finds himself carried to the shores of the QI for healing and safety from being hunted as a criminal.        

Holly:  most notably an evergreen tree associated with Winter.  In Celtic mythology, the Holly God ruled the coldest, darkest part of the year from the winter solstice to the summer.  That parallels much of Hades/Persephone and Underworld mythology that is closely associated with the Starks.  Interestingly, while the leaves and berries are mostly seen as symbolic of Christ's crown of thorns and blood, the shape of the leaves are also sometimes compared to batwings.  Bat symbolism appears in both Sansa and Arya's stories. 

Willow:  associated with Hecate, Greek Goddess of the moon and sorcery.  In some versions of the myth of Orpheus, he is associated with Hecate.  Orpheus (a lyre-playing singer) decends into the Underworld to retrieve his lost love and wife, Eurydice.  

Myrtle:  associated with Aphrodite, goddess of love and beauty.  Cross-culturally, myrtles have been associated with love and marriage.

As for the other two spearwives:  Squirrel and Frenya, there's some interesting associations where Ser Shadrich and Sansa might come in...

Squirrel:  that stuck out at me right away.  Squirrels obviously being tree-dwelling animals, but the way they can deftly leap from from branch to branch kind of reminds me of our "silly sight" of a "flying mouse" as Ser Shadrich, the Mad Mouse says.  There's even a species of "flying" squirrel that glides on stretched out skin between it's limbs and body -- like a bat or fledermaus! 

Frenya:  definitely sounds like a variation of the Norse goddess, Freya, which means "Lady" in Old Norse.  She's primarily associated with love and beauty which makes her similar to Aphrodite.  Both can sometimes be described as "party girls" in their appetites.  In Sansa's incarnation as a bastard she bears the bastard stigma of being more wanton and lustful because of her "origins" even though it's not actually true.  There's another association of Freya as a practitioner of sorcery and in one story has possession of magic falcon feathers that can shape-shift a person.  If Norse mythology expert  @The Fattest Leech has anything to add or correct here, it would be appreciated.  Shape-shifting magic is a theme in the Winterfell arc and if I'm right, will probably be in the Vale arc as well. There's also possible foreshadowing of Sansa having something to do with sorcery if the bat / Whent / Mad Danelle Lothston connections play out as it seems strongly suggested they will.  We've already made parallels between the tourney at the Gates of the Moon and the tourney at Whitewalls (from the Mystery Knight) in previous posts.  Danelle Lothston (sorceress) was allied with Bloodraven (sorceror, who was glamored) to squash the Second Blackfyre Rebellion plot.  I don't know of any other characters other than Mad King Aerys (which doesn't appear to have any connection I can see here) who are given the nick-name "Mad" other than Mad Danelle (sorceress) and the Mad Mouse, so that could be pointing to Shadrich being a sorcerer.  You could make the looser connection of "Mad" being an indicator of someone who uses supernatural and frightening power if you want to include Aerys and his wildfyre.         

I've got alot more reading to do in ADWD to see if I can find more details.  If you have anything to add, that would be lovely                                             

[sweetsunray]

Freyja is also a war goddess, the counterfigure of Odin. Valkyries choose whether the slain go to Freyja's castle or Odin's Walhalla. And she has a cart that's pulled by 2 cats. She was accused of sleeping with her twin brother. But yes, there's a myth where Thor borrows Freyja's falcon feathered garb and pretends to be Freyja (with a veil), after a giant asks Freyja as a price for the hammer he stole from Thor. So, dressed as Freyja he goes to the giant (with Loki, this was Loki's plan), pretending to be his bride-to-be, all in order to get his hammer back. The giant does remark that Freyja is rather big and rough in her ways, and scrunges food and drinks a lot. Loki tells the giant that Freyja was so happy when she first heard the news she hadn't eaten for 7 days and 7 nights. When the giants are drunk enough, Thor as Freyja asks for the hammer and then kills all the giants there.

But yes, I thought the parallel with Mance on an Arya rescue mission and using a glamor was obvious. Though Mance is not actually using the glamor in WF. He mostly used it at CB. Mance would use the glamor to leave WF probably though.

[Ashes Of Westeros]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf Interesting points! This parallel isn't obvious but it fits great. No wonder GGRM takes ages to finish a book I will look more closely into it, because I missed a lot of details (ADWD is my least favorite book, so I wasn't really attentive to the details).

I would just add that being considered dead is one of the safest options in the books. Almost all Stark children left are presumed dead at some point of the story: Arya, Sansa, Bran and Rickon. And this "dead" status kept them away from real death or much bigger troubles.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Freyja is also a war goddess, the counterfigure of Odin. Valkyries choose whether the slain go to Freyja's castle or Odin's Walhalla. And she has a cart that's pulled by 2 cats. She was accused of sleeping with her twin brother. But yes, there's a myth where Thor borrows Freyja's falcon feathered garb and pretends to be Freyja (with a veil), after a giant asks Freyja as a price for the hammer he stole from Thor. So, dressed as Freyja he goes to the giant (with Loki, this was Loki's plan), pretending to be his bride-to-be, all in order to get his hammer back. The giant does remark that Freyja is rather big and rough in her ways, and scrunges food and drinks a lot. Loki tells the giant that Freyja was so happy when she first heard the news she hadn't eaten for 7 days and 7 nights. When the giants are drunk enough, Thor as Freyja asks for the hammer and then kills all the giants there.

This is great.  Shape-shifting, false brides, feasts, infiltrating the enemy to retrieve what was stolen.  Fits perfectly in the Winterfell arc.  In the Vale we got the false bride, the feast, falcon/Arryn symbolism.  Could be Loki parallels with Shadrich as a clever, bold trickster type.  The spearwives kinda remindme of Valkyrie types.  The one named Willow Witch-Eye has similarities with Odin with the tree/eye thing.  Freya having parallels with Mad Danelle with her black armor (warrior) and penchant for magic.  You got me on the cat-drawn cart though   There's Odin parallels with Sandor with the death and resurrection to gain knowledge and wisdom theme and as the Gravedigger he has presided over the dead.  They both have special horses associated with the Underworld.  Odin has been known to use disguises as Sandor did at the Twins.  His wife is sometimes called Frigga, but she has so many similarities to Freya the goddesses can often be fused as one being.  Curiously, in that story you have "Freya," who is really Thor in disguise, slaying giants...  which is a really bizarre twist if you compare it to Sansa's prophecy of a maid slaying a giant.  Or maybe it's not that crazy when you incorporate your theory about the Mountain (the Giant) coming down in an earthquake / avalanche.  Hammer of the waters = Thor's hammer!?!  Food for thought, no? 

Odin's name and all is iterations have a general meaning of "rage, madness, fury," which are very Hound-like attributes.  As I've before listed some similarities between BR and Sandor, there's also parallels between BR and Odin.  Again the death and rebirth to gain wisdom and knowledge, sacrifice of an eye, sacrifice of the self on a special tree, sorcery, shape-shifting, and being a seer.  So there's probaly a BR - Odin - Sandor triangle going on here in that Odin is also associated with accompanying wolves and ravens.  

You were right about not needing the glamor inside Winterfell as no one south of the wall would recognize Mance.  He did it before at the King's feast in Winterfell when he disguised himself a singer.  Presumably he still has a the ruby and bones, which he may need later to extract himself.  I am by no means an expert on the Pink Letter and I'm still trying to get through ADWD if Mance's fate is as it says.

I would just also add the Littlefinger hovers over both these two story arcs as he is directly responsible for the false brides in the respective situations.  He's also responsible for the deaths of the previous heads of both Houses Stark and Arryn:  Ned, Jon, and Lysa.  

Also as another Shadrich/HR parallel with the squirrel / "flying mouse" bit,  HR is said to be able "run on leaves" by Meera.  That imagery always stumped me a bit in the long resume of HR's abilities.  Now with the squirrel association it makes perfect sense

3 hours ago, Ashes Of Westeros said:

I would just add that being considered dead is one of the safest options in the books. Almost all Stark children left are presumed dead at some point of the story: Arya, Sansa, Bran and Rickon. And this "dead" status kept them away from real death or much bigger troubles

 No kidding.  Faking your death or staying "dead" is a life-saver lol.  Ironically, real death among Starks can lead to bigger problems after you're a corpse:  LSH and maybe Jon?  And ADWD was honestly my least favorite too, but now I need to dive back in again.    

 

[The Fattest Leech]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf How I WISH I was a Norse mythology expert! I know enough off the top of my head to see some few possible connections and if they are worth delving into deeper- but then I have to get my books out. Brunhilde has been a favorite of mine for a while (and she has a comet named after her). I perused your response above quickly, but am going to back over it now.

@sweetsunray is a true, top of the head mythology expert