How did Varys convince jon connington that griff was Aegon?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Ser Creighton said:

Actually that is not true humans do not always believe what reason tells you to, that's why humans can be unreasonable, illogical, denial, obsessive, dismissive, obstinate, obtuse etc... That is why we invented words for that stuff. The sun is shinning, the sky is blue, water is wet, 2+2=4 are not equivalent to emotion and the human condition. How many crackpot arguments have you seen in your time here? Despite evidence to the contrary and someone will believe in those crackpots, sometimes even when they know it is wrong and refuse to let go of that idea.

That is true to a degree, of course. But being faced with a real boy looking somewhat to young for his supposed age is a lot different from speculations about things that don't really exist.

1 hour ago, Ser Creighton said:

Perhaps? Perhaps? Perhaps the sun is shining? It either is or it is not, the example does equate to the idea. You can also have truth, the truth is the sun is always shining weather we see it or not. Sometimes we don't see it, some times we can't see it, and sometimes we choose not to look. But it is a giant ball of gas in space and it gives off light all the time.

Are you sure of that? Just kidding. The example was using meteorological language, though. The sun is shining when there are no clouds blocking its path ;-).

You make a pretty good case, actually. Especially with the boy thing. I'm with you that if George planted the age difference as a hint for the reader that Connington must then have deceived himself about Aegon or allowed Varys and Illyrio to deceived him. If that's the case then it will be addressed at one point.

On the other hand we have to keep in context that Connington apparently only gets to know 'the boy' right now in the Stormlands. In the same chapter he complains that Prince Aegon isn't the same person as Young Griff used to be, less pliable and determined to do what the hell he considers to be the best option, not what his advisors say he should do. 

Connington clearly is uncomfortable with the idea to give up control and step back to allow Aegon to take charge and it troubles him that the boy does it anyway.

And by the way, Daenerys doesn't have purple eyes, either:

AGoT has Viserys and Dany refer to her eyes as being violet while Illyrio once claims she has purple eyes in a casual general manner. Rhaego has Dany's violet eyes in Dany's dream in AGoT. Viserys III's eyes are described as being 'pale lilac' in AGoT and are referred to as being lilac a couple of times thereafter.

ACoK has vision Rhaegar's eyes as 'a dark indigo rather than [Viserys'] lilac', preserving consistency with AGoT insofar as Viserys is concerned. But this actually means Rhaegar's eyes were closer to blue than both Viserys' and Dany's eyes considering that indigo is the shade between blue and violet while violet and lilac are both distinctly violet). The appendix on the Targaryen dynasty in AGoT specifics that the dragon pricks are specified as having 'lilac or indigo or violet eyes and hair of silver-gold or platinum white.'

That means purple is not necessarily the only spectrum of a Targaryen's eyes. They can be more bluish, too.

In ASoS Dany wears violet again to bring out the purple of her eyes when dealing with the Astapori slavers. That means her eyes are still violet I guess. Kraznys mo Nakloz also casually implies Dany has 'dim purple eyes'. Jaime describes Aerys' eyes as purple in the same book.

Daario's eyes almost look purple, too, in ASoS, due to the effects of his purple-dyed beard and hair.

Cersei has Rhaegar's eyes as purple in AFfC.

Aegon's eyes are first described as a dark blue by Tyrion, black in the dark and at dusk as purple. But he has blue hair. Later on, Connington makes his remark that Rhaegar had 'deep purple eyes, darker than Aegon's. No idea how that's consistent with Rhaegar having indigo eyes.

[GhostNymeria]

43 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

By who? Sorry to be annoying, but even a childless idiot like me would probably get suspicious if a kid hit puberty at the age of nine.

No problem, you're not annoying By newer childhood research. The Stages of development theory is over 70 years old. But I wouldn't say it's completely inaccurate though. Generally speaking, the majority of children does more or less follow these stages, as the theory suggests, but it can still vary(s) a lot between different children. And there's nothing wrong with those children, it basically just comes down to that all individuals are different. And it's funny that you should mention a kid hitting puberty at 9, my nephew actually got her period at the age of 9. It's rare, but it happens.

[Lord Varys]

25 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

No problem, you're not annoying By newer childhood research. The Stages of development theory is over 70 years old. But I wouldn't say it's completely inaccurate though. Generally speaking, the majority of children does more or less follow these stages, as the theory suggests, but it can still vary(s) a lot between different children. And there's nothing wrong with those children, it basically just comes down to that all individuals are different. And it's funny that you should mention a kid hitting puberty at 9, my nephew actually got her period at the age of 9. It's rare, but it happens.

The problem with the whole thing is that age gap between Illyrio's son and Rhaegar's son would never go away. Connington would see the lad hitting puberty rather late for his age, behaving pretty childish or being still pretty weak at a rather late age, and so on. It makes little sense to assume he would never notice that. He should recall when the hell he first took up a sword and stuff.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 hour ago, GhostNymeria said:

my nephew actually got her period at the age of 9

That's a medical marvel 

[GhostNymeria]

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with the whole thing is that age gap between Illyrio's son and Rhaegar's son would never go away. Connington would see the lad hitting puberty rather late for his age, behaving pretty childish or being still pretty weak at a rather late age, and so on. It makes little sense to assume he would never notice that. He should recall when the hell he first took up a sword and stuff.

How big is the age gap? Is it two years? Because, like I said, all individuals develope and behave differently, and two years doesn't need to  be that much of a difference in terms of development, escpecially if you don't have other children around to compare him to. But maybe Jon did take note of it, but decided it was nothing. I think, just because it is never mentioned in Jon's POVs, doesn't mean he never doubted if the child was really Aegon. Jon Connington's story isn't over yet, maybe we will get more of his doubt (if he has any) in TWOW.

[GhostNymeria]

Just now, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That's a medical marvel 

I don't want to go completely off topic with this discussion, but I can't resist to add some extra facts . The average age for onset of puberty in girls have rapidly been dropping since the 1920's, probably due to diet, fat and chemicals. Ok I'm done now.

[Lord Varys]

38 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

How big is the age gap? Is it two years?

If we take Tyrion's opinion on Aegon's seriously it is about 2-2.5 years.

38 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

Because, like I said, all individuals develope and behave differently, and two years doesn't need to  be that much of a difference in terms of development, escpecially if you don't have other children around to compare him to. But maybe Jon did take note of it, but decided it was nothing. I think, just because it is never mentioned in Jon's POVs, doesn't mean he never doubted if the child was really Aegon. Jon Connington's story isn't over yet, maybe we will get more of his doubt (if he has any) in TWOW.

The problem is that the likelihood is still in disfavor of Jon Connington explaining things away in this fashion. The boy he has is significantly younger than he thinks he is and if he was also developing slower rather than much quicker than things would be even more glaringly obvious. Considering that we know next to nothing about Aegon's childhood and his time with Jon there is little reason to assume that he wouldn't have noticed that. The boy still looks too young for his age at this point. And Connington most likely hung around with a lot of boys and youths in his day considering his romantic and sexual preferences.

In addition, there is the fact that Jon knew Rhaegar pretty well and also interacted with Elia and possibly also young Aegon. He would also look for signs of his dead friend and Elia in the boy and if there were none to be found it would look strange to him.

[GhostNymeria]

38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If we take Tyrion's opinion on Aegon's seriously it is about 2-2.5 years.

The problem is that the likelihood is still in disfavor of Jon Connington explaining things away in this fashion. The boy he has is significantly younger than he thinks he is and if he was also developing slower rather than much quicker than things would be even more glaringly obvious. Considering that we know next to nothing about Aegon's childhood and his time with Jon there is little reason to assume that he wouldn't have noticed that. The boy still looks too young for his age at this point. And Connington most likely hung around with a lot of boys and youths in his day considering his romantic and sexual preferences.

Like others have said here, I think that he wanted to believe Aegon was the real deal enough for him to gloss over an age gap. He probably thought it was his last chance to redeem himself and his lojalty to the Targaryans and Rhaegar, in particular.  And if he did suspect that something was wrong when FAegon got older, he probably rejected those thougths and continued on with his mission. I mean, he committed his life to raise a child he thought was Rhaegar's son and the true heir to the throne, and preparing the child for that throne. Imagine committing several years to that cause, and when the kid is at a certian age, you start to notice small things and wonder if you got bullshitted. Choosing to ignore those thoughts, instead of giving up your life mission, which you've spent so many years on, doesn't seem to unlikely to me, especially from a man who's obsessed with Rhaegar.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

38 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

Like others have said here, I think that he wanted to believe Aegon was the real deal enough for him to gloss over an age gap. He probably thought it was his last chance to redeem himself and his lojalty to the Targaryans and Rhaegar, in particular.  And if he did suspect that something was wrong when FAegon got older, he probably rejected those thougths and continued on with his mission. I mean, he committed his life to raise a child he thought was Rhaegar's son and the true heir to the throne, and preparing the child for that throne. Imagine committing several years to that cause, and when the kid is at a certian age, you start to notice small things and wonder if you got bullshitted. Choosing to ignore those thoughts, instead of giving up your life mission, which you've spent so many years on, doesn't seem to unlikely to me, especially from a man who's obsessed with Rhaegar.

Well all that seems like bad planning on the part of Varys and Illyrio. Get a whoreson from Lys of the right age ffs. Their entire plan rest upon assuming that a smart bloke can't tell the difference between a four year old and a six year old; and if one of their main conspirators does find out he'll just roll with it? 

[GhostNymeria]

9 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Well all that seems like bad planning on the part of Varys and Illyrio. Get a whoreson from Lys of the right age ffs. Their entire plan rest upon assuming that a smart bloke can't tell the difference between a four year old and a six year old; and if one of their main conspirators does find out he'll just roll with it? 

Good point. I don't know, who would the mummers dragon prophecy refer to if not FAegon? Do you think he's the real Aegon?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, GhostNymeria said:

Good point. I don't know, who would the mummers dragon prophecy refer to if not FAegon? Do you think he's the real Aegon?

I'm actually on the fence. I think he might be fake, but not convinced by the Blackfyre theory (although I respect those that have developed it). 

[GhostNymeria]

28 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I'm actually on the fence. I think he might be fake, but not convinced by the Blackfyre theory (although I respect those that have developed it). 

Me to, but I'm leaning more against fake. Either way, and I know it's predictable, but I think Dany will kill him. But it would be more sad and morally conflicting for Dany if it turns out he's real. 

[Aedam Targaryen]

On August 22, 2016 at 8:09 AM, house of dayne said:

Perhaps jon accepts varys s account of aegons rescue because he helped create it..as hand of the king during an open rebellion it would have fallen to him to ensure the lives of the heirs of the dynasty..it would have only been prudent for jon con to make arrangements with varys to smuggle out aegon in the event of defeat..when presented years later with aegon, he believed it because he himself was involved from the beginning

I was thinking along the same lines, only I don't think it very likely Jon was in on the rescue planning. But he would be a lot easier to convince if you informed him of your Aegon rescue plan before just showing up with a toddler. 

Whether Aegon is real or not, if you told Jon sometime before the sack of KL that you had this Aegon escape plan in a worst case scenario situation, I think he'd be a lot easier to convince when you show up to drop the kid off. 

Also, as far as the age stuff, a grown man that is decades away from his own childhood, a man who seems likely to be homosexual, a man who because of that most likely never even considered kids of his own, never wanted to marry, a man who didn't seem to pay much attention to anyone but Rhaegar... I don't find it unbelievable that this sort of man could be fooled by a child's age. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If we take Tyrion's opinion on Aegon's seriously it is about 2-2.5 years.

If we look only at what Tyrion said in that one sentence, it is 1-4 years. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If we look only at what Tyrion said in that one sentence, it is 1-4 years. 

Can you elaborate on that? I'm not following.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Can you elaborate on that? I'm not following.

Rhaegar’s son would have been 18 when we met Young Griff...

Quote

YOUNG GRIFF, a blue-haired lad of eighteen years.

Appendix, Dance

But Tyrion tells us that he looked one to four years younger than that...

Quote

The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.

Tyrion III, Dance 8

Of course, I am assuming that 14 is near enough to 15 to make no matter, and 17 is near enough to 16 to make no matter. 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

Rhaegar’s son would have been 18 when we met Young Griff...

Appendix, Dance

But Tyrion tells us that he looked one to four years younger than that...

Tyrion III, Dance 8

Of course, I am assuming that 14 is near enough to 15 to make no matter, and 17 is near enough to 16 to make no matter. 

Yeah, it should have been 2-3 years, not 2-2.5 years. I didn't know what came over at that point.

However, I don't see any reason to assume that 'near enough to make no matter' has to refer to full years. If Tyrion thought the lad was somebody between 14-17 years old he would have said, and not used a phrase I'd more likely attribute to months rather than years.

But if you want we could specify it to 1.5-3.5 years, thus the stuff that doesn't matter referring to six months at the most, not a full year.

1 hour ago, GhostNymeria said:

Like others have said here, I think that he wanted to believe Aegon was the real deal enough for him to gloss over an age gap. He probably thought it was his last chance to redeem himself and his lojalty to the Targaryans and Rhaegar, in particular.  And if he did suspect that something was wrong when FAegon got older, he probably rejected those thougths and continued on with his mission. I mean, he committed his life to raise a child he thought was Rhaegar's son and the true heir to the throne, and preparing the child for that throne. Imagine committing several years to that cause, and when the kid is at a certian age, you start to notice small things and wonder if you got bullshitted. Choosing to ignore those thoughts, instead of giving up your life mission, which you've spent so many years on, doesn't seem to unlikely to me, especially from a man who's obsessed with Rhaegar.

That is all possible. I'm just willing to take stuff like that for granted. I think there has to be some pretty good evidence/testimony/whatever that original convinced Connington which kept his doubts (if he had any) in check. If he had doubts than an explanation like yours could work to keep them in check but it doesn't explain why he originally decided to believe Varys of all people. Or why he thought the Golden Company was interested in a Targaryen restoration. I mean, the man served with the company since before the Sack. Surely the reaction among those men in the company with longstanding Black Dragon loyalties would have been rather cheerful when the false king Aerys and his son and grandchildren were butchered.

57 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

Good point. I don't know, who would the mummers dragon prophecy refer to if not FAegon? Do you think he's the real Aegon?

The cloth dragon prophecy does not necessarily refer to a fake dragon. If you buy into the Blackfyre theory (and don't care about the fact that neither Illyrio nor Aegon would actually carry the Blackfyre name - Aegon is basically as much a Blackfyre as Robert is a Targaryen or Harrold Hardyng an Arryn) then Aegon isn't actually a fake dragon. Just not the kind of dragon he claims to be.

But I think the cloth dragon vision refers to a false savior (just as the vision of the blue-eyed king without a shadow referred to Stannis Baratheon the false savior not Stannis Baratheon the false king) and in the savior business you can be the rightful king all day long. That doesn't mean that you going to save the world, though.

Not to mention that it is ridiculous to believe that the Undying/magic/fate/destiny/whatever caused the glimpses of the future Dany saw actually has the correct answers about the deliberately unclear succession laws of Westeros.

52 minutes ago, GhostNymeria said:

Me to, but I'm leaning more against fake. Either way, and I know it's predictable, but I think Dany will kill him. But it would be more sad and morally conflicting for Dany if it turns out he's real. 

Not sure why he has to die. Yeah, usually kings who are crowned die. But then, we don't know how vicious and brutal this Second Dance will become and both Dany and Aegon still might have enemies they should be unite against (Euron, Stannis, the Others). Aegon certainly could be killed, but he could also just be deposed, give up his claim, become a prisoner, or something else.

34 minutes ago, Aedam Targaryen said:

Also, as far as the age stuff, a grown man that is decades away from his own childhood, a man who seems likely to be homosexual, a man who because of that most likely never even considered kids of his own, never wanted to marry, a man who didn't seem to pay much attention to anyone but Rhaegar... I don't find it unbelievable that this sort of man could be fooled by a child's age. 

The problem with that is that people living in castles are always surrounded by children. Connington would have had friends and companions as a boy like the Stark children had, and later he would have companions in his youth. He would also have had pages and squires as an adult and be surrounded by peers who married and had wives and children of their own.

The man did not grow up in a vacuum. And caring for and watching his foster son grow up would have inevitably have brought up memories of his own boyhood and youth.

Not to mention that Jon most certainly would also have viewed Aegon as a sexual attractive man from a certain onwards. I'm more likely to believe that men actually being interested in men can judge their growth and development much better than men only interested in women.

[theblackdragonI]

On 21/08/2016 at 10:58 AM, Marcus corvinus said:

hand of the king at 18, kicked robert's ass, rose to lieutenant in short time in GC and is a superb military commander. Varys does not simply choose you to lead a continent conquering crusade

Was chosen as hand of the king purely because he was young and energetic and Aerys wanted someone like that to counter Robert. How did he kick Robert's ass? By failing to capture him when he was wounded and alone cut off from his forces? He is a competent military commander for being able to retreat from the Battle of the Bells in order, but he's no military genius. Fair enough that he has grown more wise and dangerous in his exile but as a youth he was rash and too eager for glory. We have yet to see if his personal feelings will jeopardise Aegon's conquest.

[OuttaOldtown]

2 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

Like others have said here, I think that he wanted to believe Aegon was the real deal enough for him to gloss over an age gap. He probably thought it was his last chance to redeem himself and his lojalty to the Targaryans and Rhaegar, in particular.  And if he did suspect that something was wrong when FAegon got older, he probably rejected those thougths and continued on with his mission. I mean, he committed his life to raise a child he thought was Rhaegar's son and the true heir to the throne, and preparing the child for that throne. Imagine committing several years to that cause, and when the kid is at a certian age, you start to notice small things and wonder if you got bullshitted. Choosing to ignore those thoughts, instead of giving up your life mission, which you've spent so many years on, doesn't seem to unlikely to me, especially from a man who's obsessed with Rhaegar.

I agree with you, he is blinded by his desire for redemption, wishful thinking and his love for Rhaegar. There's no indication in The Lost Lord or Griffin Reborn anywhere that he's even the slightest bit suspicious of Aegon's legitimacy..

[BricksAndSparrows]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is no proof, not even a hint that something is amiss. Rhaegar, Viserys, and Daenerys all had incestuous parents and grandparents yet all three of them have different eye colors. The idea that something should be amiss because Aegon's eyes are not as purple has his father's make little sense.

Not to mention that George already established that clothes and hair color can trick the eyes of an observer. Daemon II Blackfyre and dyed his hair black and wore blue clothes to make his eyes appear more bluish than purple. They don't appear purple when Dunk first mets him on the road. Yet later on he realizes that he was very deep purple eyes, just like Egg does.

Aegon and Connington have their hair dyed blue. It is pretty clear that the blue hair makes Aegon's eyes appear more blue than purple. Only when the blue color of the hair isn't that prominent (i.e. in torchlight) do the eyes appear purple.

*groan* Of course the eye color is not proof. I never said it was. I thought I covered myself when I said...

Quote

I'm not saying he has even begun to suspect,

But then I went on to say...

Quote

"...the seeds of doubt are there."

So I should have taken more care in choosing my words. This is what I was trying to say:

Jon is comparing Aegon to Rhaegar. and I suspect that he is going to be confronted by questions of Aegon's legitamacy/identity. I believe Connington's observation is foreshadowing of things to come. It's the first symptom, small and irrelevant, but noted all the same. It's a minor disassociation from Rhaegar, and I think this is a subtle hint to the reader that it is just the beginning.

 

 

Quote

I'm not holding my breath that Connington will live that long. He is sick already and his greyscale is bent to be revealed at one point. If he has by then caused some sort of epidemic by infecting other people nobody will be inclined to forgive him. They will just quietly kill him.

I heard some he said she said about GRRM looking to reduce POV's, so That is always a possibility. I'll be interested to see how Aegon reacts to learning about Jon's greyscale. Something tells me the kid wouldn't leave him behind. That's not to say that he won't get left behind, anyway...