Illyrio Mo'Parties Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Probably not a new theory, but what the hell. TL-DR at the bottom. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update 18/10/16: found some quotes that specify when Quentyn was fostered, and it doesn't bode well for the below theory. Still, some people might find it interesting. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote Ser Arys had yet to meet Quentyn Martell. The prince had been fostered by Lord Yronwood from a tender age, had served him as a page, then a squire, had even taken knighthood at his hands in preference to the Red Viper's. -- A Feast for Crows, The Soiled Knight Fostered, eh? Any particular reason? Quote Quentyn had been very young when he was sent to Yronwood; too young, according to their mother. Norvoshi did not foster out their children, and Lady Mellario had never forgiven Prince Doran for taking her son away from her. "I like it no more than you do," Arianne had overheard her father say, "but there is a blood debt, and Quentyn is the only coin Lord Ormond will accept." "Coin?" her mother had screamed. "He is your son. What sort of father uses his own flesh and blood to pay his debts?" "The princely sort," Doran Martell had answered. -- A Feast for Crows, The Queenmaker Blood debt, eh? What's that all about? Quote When he was no more than sixteen, Prince Oberyn had been found abed with the paramour of old Lord Yronwood, a huge man of fierce repute and short temper. A duel ensued, though in view of the prince's youth and high birth, it was only to first blood. Both men took cuts, and honor was satisfied. Yet Prince Oberyn soon recovered, while Lord Yronwood's wounds festered and killed him. Afterward men whispered that Oberyn had fought with a poisoned sword, and ever thereafter friends and foes alike called him the Red Viper. -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion V Oh right, that blood debt. So there's our story: the Prince of Dorne has to give his son to the Yronwoods to pay for the crimes of his brother. It's all very sad, and it ruins his marriage, but that's the kind of compromise you have to make when you're large and in charge. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There's something happening here... I hadn't noticed until today, but there are a number of things about this story that don't add up. The first is that Doran's wife left him. Her husband is a prince in a feudal society, and his hands are tied. It's understandable that she'd be upset, but her actions suggest that she's upset at Doran, which implies she thinks those actions were unnecessary. And yet hostage-taking is an accepted part of feudal society. What gives? The second weird thing is that a vassal house is taking a hostage from their overlord. Sure, Oberyn Martell is in the wrong, but Doran is still the prince. There must be other options available to him to smooth things over with the Yronwoods - a marriage pact being the most obvious - and at the end of the day, he ought to have the power to force them to accept things. Maybe House Yronwood really was on the brink of open rebellion, and maybe they're strong enough to seriously threaten the Martells. But it seems strange. The third weird thing is that the Yronwoods demanded Quentyn at all. Cui bono? Normally, the hostage-taker aims to ensure compliance from the other party, but so far as we know there was nothing more to the settlement than Quentyn. There are no Martell-Yronwood marriages that we know of, nor payments of money, nor privileges granted to the house. Perhaps they consider it a form of revenge, to raise Doran's son away from him. Again, it seems weird. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...and what it is ain't exactly clear... By far the weirdest thing of all is the timeline. Oberyn's duel occurred in 273-275 AC. Quentyn wasn't even born until 281 AC. (Dates per the wiki.) We don't know exactly when the fostering occurred, except that Quentyn was "very young... too young, according to [his] mother." How young is too young? We don't know exactly, but let's do the best we can. We know Quentyn was born in 281, and he served as a page and then a squire to Lord Yronwood. I recall that, in The Hedge Knight, Egg was nine years old and squiring, and nobody seemed to think that was weird. I'm under the impression that pages could be as young as 5 or 6, but I'm open to correction on that point. It's at this point that I start speculating, because we simply don't know exactly when Quentyn was fostered. But I hope we can at least agree that the delay is bizarre. The shortest length of time physically possible between Lord Edgar's death and Quentyn's fostering is 6 years, and of course they wouldn't have fostered immediately following his birth. Why? One last thing, on the meta level: those three quotes at the top of the post are, near as I can tell, the only evidence we have for what I'll start calling the Official Story. Or maybe the cover story. Whatever: the point is, it's pretty thin, and vague. Nobody ever comes right out and says it: Ormond Yronwood demanded of Doran Martell that his son Quentyn be fostered with him as payback for Doran's brother Oberyn's killing of Ormond's father Edgar. Instead we have hearsay - literally, in Arianne's case. If GRRM were planning a twist here, he has left himself more than enough wiggle-room. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tinfoil time! Alright, so if not the Official Story, then what? My first thought was to have a quick look at the timeline to see what other big important events might have happened around the time of Quentyn's fostering. And wouldn't you know it? There was something pretty big and important not long after Quentyn's birth. But it's actually what happened after the Rebellion that concerns me. Quote "Is it true [Oberyn] tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?" "No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn's bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it." -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion VI Jon Arryn negotiating a peace with Doran, eh? Exactly when was this? Quote "...Jon Arryn came to Sunspear the year after Robert took the throne, and you can be sure that he was questioned closely. Him, and a hundred more..." -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion V The year after Robert took the throne. That would be 284 AC - when Quentyn was just three years old. It seems unlikely that he'd have been fostered at this time, though. Surely three years old is too young for that! Quote Quentyn had been very young when he was sent to Yronwood; too young, according to [his] mother. -- A Feast for Crows, The Queenmaker Hmm... still, it's a stretch. We know Quentyn's mother thinks that Quentyn's fostering is to placate the Yronwoods, because that's what Doran tells her: Quote "I like it no more than you do," Arianne had overheard her father say, "but there is a blood debt, and Quentyn is the only coin Lord Ormond will accept." -- A Feast for Crows, The Queenmaker But Lord Edgar had been dead for at least nine years at this point. Losing your son at three years old in order to patch up some stale old feud would have been inexplicable and intolerable to Mellario. Quote Lady Mellario had never forgiven Prince Doran for taking her son away from her. "I like it no more than you do," Arianne had overheard her father say, "but there is a blood debt, and Quentyn is the only coin Lord Ormond will accept." "Coin?" her mother had screamed. "He is your son. What sort of father uses his own flesh and blood to pay his debts?" -- A Feast for Crows, The Queenmaker Quote Doran Martell and his Norvoshi wife had spent half their marriage apart and the other half arguing. -- A Dance with Dragons, The Dragontamer Alright... but what are we saying here? That Jon Arryn had the Yronwoods take Quentyn hostage? Why would he do that? Hostage-taking, as we said earlier, is about forcing someone to comply with some agreement. What would make Jon Arryn want to apply that force? Quote "Is it true [Oberyn] tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?" "No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn's bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion VI So, what, Quentyn was taken hostage by the Yronwoods on the crown's behalf, in order to force Doran to keep the peace that he agreed to in the wake of the Rebellion. But why the Yronwoods? Well, I don't have a quote for this one, but my guess is that it's to maintain the cover story that the fostering was due to the Yronwood feud. And nobody ever connected the arrangement to Dorne's support for Viserys, because "no one speaks of it". But why have a cover story at all? Perhaps nobody wanted to embarass the Dornish. Or was there more to Jon Arryn's Dornish trip, and the Dornish activity that occasioned it, than meets the eye? Quote "Is it true [Oberyn] tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?" "No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew." -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion VI Quote "...Jon Arryn came to Sunspear the year after Robert took the throne, and you can be sure that he was questioned closely. Him, and a hundred more..." -- A Storm of Swords, Tyrion V Well, blimey. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extreme tinfoil mega-gasm! I think I've run out of quotes to back up my points, and I've also run out of definitive ideas, so from here on in there be vague speculatin's. Robert's Rebellion is shrouded in mystery from beginning to end, and much of what we think we know about it is surely wrong. I don't see why that wouldn't extend to the events immediately after the war. We don't know exactly how Oberyn planned to raise Dorne for Viserys, and surely Oberyn is not so stupid as to think that Dorne could stand alone against the crown. I think it must be the case that there were some dangerous secrets in play, and that part of the negotiated peace involved Jon Arryn keeping some of those secrets. Consider Robert's bloodlust for the Targaryen family in A Game of Thrones. It was probably even stronger in 284 AC. If he knew the Dornish were conspiring to restore the Targaryens - perhaps even holding one of them safe, perhaps in a house with a red door - he would have swept down upon them with all his strength; something the pragmatic Jon Arryn must have been keen to avoid. So, whatever secrets were involved, the upshot is that Jon Arryn was successfully able to force Doran into backing down, and had the Yronwoods take his son hostage to ensure his continued compliance. The other big missing piece is the motivation of the Yronwoods. There's curiously little information about them out there: we know they were once kings, once bigger than the Martells; we know they've been subordinate to the Martells ever since the Rhoynish arrived, and they resent it; and we know they fought for the Blackfyres three times, "even though one of the original goals of the rebels was to remove the Dornish influence at court." We don't know where they stood in Robert's Rebellion. I can't explain why they should hold Jon Arryn's hostage-by-proxy. However, there's something else weird about the Yronwoods, and that's why they're keen on a Targaryen restoration now. As far as they know, Doran wants to marry Quentyn to Daenerys Targaryen, and they're helping him do that. This is odd, if they're supposed to be the Martell's biggest rivals: why would Doran trust his biggest rival with his most dangerous secret? The logical explanation is that relations between the two houses aren't as bad as we think. (See TWOIAF.) But I think this also makes sense if we consider that the Yronwoods are Doran's enemy, and the Quentyn quest is a fool's errand meant to distract them. I realise we're in serious tinfoil territory here, though. But here's one last bit of tinfoil: Doran's clearly been scheming for a long time, but he doesn't seem to actually do anything until A Storm of Swords. This was always strange to me. It's even strange to the characters, who conclude that Doran is excessively cautious, or even lazy. But what if there's a simpler explanation: that whatever hold Jon Arryn had over the Dornish has vanished with his death. And it seems like he didn't unburden himself before he died (and how delightful would it be if "the seed is strong!" had a different meaning after all these years), because nobody comes after them, and the Lannisters even trust them with a marriage pact. Suddenly, their secrets are safe again - and they can start making moves. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The TL-DR Quentyn Martell wasn't fostered with the Yronwoods to make peace between the two houses. He was a hostage, held by the Yronwoods on behalf of Jon Arryn, to ensure Dornish loyalty to the Baratheon regime. And for some reason, this has been kept a secret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illyrio Mo'Parties Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 This didn't fit into the theory, but I did find a couple of curious things. First, we don't know exactly when Mellario went back to Norvos. Quote Doran Martell and his Norvoshi wife had spent half their marriage apart and the other half arguing. It was the only rash thing his father had ever done, to hear some tell it, the only time he had followed his heart instead of his head, and he had lived to rue it. -- A Dance with Dragons, The Dragontamer Half their marriage? Quote "I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father's solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He'd left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because 'one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body.'" -- A Feast for Crows, The Soiled Knight Arianne was 14 in 290 AC, and her mother was at home. Was it a visit? Or had she not left yet? (Also note that her father was drafting a letter to Quentyn that was somehow part of his schemes. Surely he could expect the Yronwoods to read that later, and thus know that he didn't intend for Arianne to inherit Sunspear. Curious.) What made Mellario head back to Norvos, if her son's fostering had taken place 6 years earlier? (And if he hadn't been fostered as of 290 AC, then that makes the cover story all the weaker.) It's far more likely that she just got worn down by the marriage over time, but is it possible that she's actually been sent to work some Dornish angle in the Free Cities? Finally, Areo Hotah is from Norvos, and I don't think that's a coincidence. GRRM likes to write about the human heart in conflict with itself, and even the bit part characters are well-drawn, with their own wants and hopes and dreams - except Areo Hotah. Perhaps there's some Norvoshi connection or terrible secret yet to be revealed that will test his loyalties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dariopatke Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 You are onto something that can likely be important. I never thought about this but something is very wrong with timeline. I also got a feeling that there is an option that Quentyn was a price for Yronwood support in the coming war with Robert, but you theory is more likely IMO. There is also huge trust Doran puts into house Yronwood, he is completly surrounded by them after all, there must be something we do not know. Doram doesnt seem like a man who would put his child in that bug damger, why not send him with people loyal to him on Dornish trading ship that is suppoused to bring wine to Qarth f.e. amd have 100 extra men inside guarding Quentyn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter prince Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Since I'm at work I only read the TL-DR version but I like where this is going and look forward to digesting it will a little more time. It seems like quite the plot including especially when you include a secret marriage pact mission.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 There's a man with a gun over there Telling me I got to beware… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nyrhex Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 I think this is a case of not seeing the forrest due to all the trees. The deal was that Oberyn leaves for exile after what happend with Yronwood. The problem with that deal is that "exile" is a tad broad a term for Oberyn apparently, and the guy was not actually doing much exile in those few years. He was still in Westeros for plenty of time, and outright returned to Dorne on occasions. Look at the times he studied in the Citadel and the births of the Sand Snakes and locations. He had very little time in Essos, and most of it was spent being a rich playboy. He had a mercenary company for a few months, a year at most, and like the playboy with a short attention span that he is he soon left it and returned home, already having been to Dorne and Westeros several times. At some point, this is going to tick off the Yronwoods, and Doran sends Quentyn as payment for his inability to keep Oberyn away. That is the blood debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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