Aurane Waters next move

[Isobel Harper]

1 hour ago, LordImp said:

Yeah , I'm leaning towards Aurane working for Aegon . I wonder where Aegon or Jon sends Aurane . Will he take Dragonstone or lead a naval attack on Kings landing ? 

Aegon will be looking to add legitimacy to his cause.  Dragonstone is the traditional seat of House Targaryen, so Dragonstone will likely be Aegon's next conquest, after the Stormlands and before King's Landing. 

Feast isn't clear on who holds Dragonstone now.  The Lannisters?  Local houses (such as Velaryon) feigning to be loyal to Lannisters?  Did Loras ever even conquer Dragonstone? 

If the Lannisters hold Dragonstone, Aurane might be able to trick them with his Lannister dromonds and sneak Aegon and his forces in.  If local houses, Aurane might convince them to defect from Stannis to Aegon.  If men loyal to Stannis still hold the castle, Aurane might trick them into believing that he's still loyal to Stannis and slip Aegon and his forces in this way. 

[LordImp]

5 minutes ago, Isobel Harper said:

Aegon will be looking to add legitimacy to his cause.  Dragonstone is the traditional seat of House Targaryen, so Dragonstone will likely be Aegon's next conquest, after the Stormlands and before King's Landing. 

Feast isn't clear on who holds Dragonstone now.  The Lannisters?  Local houses (such as Velaryon) feigning to be loyal to Lannisters?  Did Loras ever even conquer Dragonstone? 

If the Lannisters hold Dragonstone, Aurane might be able to trick them with his Lannister dromonds and sneak Aegon and his forces in.  If local houses, Aurane might convince them to defect from Stannis to Aegon.  If men loyal to Stannis still hold the castle, Aurane might trick them into believing that he's still loyal to Stannis and slip Aegon and his forces in this way. 

I think Loras holds DS , though i'm not entirely sure. Anyway i think a lot of shit will happen in Kings landing especially with the Tyrells , so i guess that Loras returns to KL. Which gives Aurane good odds when it comes to take Dragonstone . 

[Clegane'sPup]

3 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

In AFfC, Aurane Waters subtly tries to misdirect the Small Council into believing that The GC was hired for Stannis.  Rumors of pirates might be another misdirection.  Many people assume Waters has become a pirate, but until Winds gives us something more definitive, I'm a bit skeptical that he even is one.

Personally, I think Aurane is Aegon's man now.  As someone pointed out up thread, Waters went south, not north. 

I’m starting to pay a bit more attention to the Aegon story line and Aurane Waters, and I agree that Waters is going to play a part. I also agree that there may some misdirection going on, as you said.

These two things have been flapping around in my head for a while. In DwD c.15 Davos has a thought about Edric Storm: “but by now King Robert's bastard boy was safe in the Stepstones” and JonCon’s remark in c.61 that he means to take Storm’s End ”by guile”.

Qyburn tells Cersei in FfC c.43  "As soon as word of Your Grace's present troubles reached the river, Lord Waters raised sail, unshipped his oars, and took his fleet to sea. Ser Harys fears he means to join Lord Stannis. Pycelle believes that he is sailing to the Stepstones, to set himself up as a pirate."

Then in DwD c.54 Kevan tells Cersei  "We have had reports of sellswords landing all over the south," Ser Kevan was saying. "Tarth, the Stepstones, Cape Wrath … where Stannis found the coin to hire a free company I would dearly love to know. I do not have the strength to deal with them, not here. Mace Tyrell does, but he refuses to bestir himself until this matter with his daughter has been settled."

The widow of the waterfront tells Tyrion DwD c.27  All the other exiles are sailing west, or so these old ears have heard. And all those captains in my debt are falling over one another to take them there and leach a little gold from the coffers of the Golden Company. Our noble triarchs have pledged a dozen warships to the cause, to see the fleet safely as far as the Stepstones.

WoW spoiler

Spoiler

And that's not half of it. A new pirate king has set up on Torturer's Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. You were wise not to come by sea. Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker's Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath. We found a good fast ship for you, as your father commanded, but even so... be careful."

What I’m trying to get at is that the Stepstones seems to be a focal point for Edric Storm, Aurane Waters and the Golden Company. JonCon says he plans to take Storm’s End by guile. What’s the possibility that he has gained access to Edric Storm via Aurane?

I think that I now semi understand the Patchface references since I saw that the Velaryon coat of arms depicts a seahorse on an aquamarine background.

 

 

 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

4 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

 "I expect they did," said Jon Connington, "but what messages would they have carried? At best, some garbled account of raiders from the sea." Even before they had sailed from Volon Therys, he had instructed his captains to show no banners during these first attacks—not Prince Aegon's three-headed dragon, nor his own griffins, nor the skulls and golden battle standards of the company. Let the Lannisters suspect Stannis Baratheon, pirates from the Stepstones, outlaws out of the woods, or whoever else they cared to blame. If the reports that reached King's Landing were confused and contradictory, so much the better. The slower the Iron Throne was to react, the longer they would have to gather their strength and bring allies to the cause. There should be ships on Estermont. It is an island. Haldon, send word to Mandrake to leave a garrison behind and bring the rest of his men over to Cape Wrath, along with any noble captives."

In AFfC, Aurane Waters subtly tries to misdirect the Small Council into believing that The GC was hired for Stannis.  Rumors of pirates might be another misdirection.  Many people assume Waters has become a pirate, but until Winds gives us something more definitive, I'm a bit skeptical that he even is one.

Personally, I think Aurane is Aegon's man now.  As someone pointed out up thread, Waters went south, not north. 

Why do you assume the Velaryon forces there are just "peasant levies?"  The only "Velaryon" that we know bent the knee was Aurane Waters, and he's just a bastard of that house AND was never truly loyal to the Lannisters in the first place.

Check the family tree there are no Velaryons with Stannis right now but we can assume that he has soldiers of House Velaryon with him.

[aryagonnakill#2]

20 hours ago, BeastMaster64 said:

I don't think some peasant levy soldiers from house Velaryon qualify for a prophecy that is just stupid. Also when he says they will "ride" it certainly means ships and the only people that have ships that could conceivably join Stannis would be House Manderly= Mermaid and Aurane Waters = Seahorse. 

Stannis is much closer to the Iron Throne than people believe. If Stannis defeats the Boltons which he 200% will, Justin Massey stays true to his words and Aurane Waters joins him he will have around 30,000 soldiers and 100 ships which means that he will have the biggest navy and army in Westeros if we assume the Redwyne fleet gets destroyed by Euron and the Tyrell army gets defeated by Aegon.

Stannis is the greatest commander in asoiaf and he is in a great position to take the Iron Throne. This is what i believe Stannis will do. Stannis will defeat the Boltons and install Rickon Stark as warden of the north. After that he will make all the northern lords bend the knee. He will reinforce the Wall and go to capture Dragonstone so he gets the dragonglass needed to defeat the Others. He will be joined by Aurane and Justin and he will try to capture King's Landing again but Danerys will come and kill him.

I assume the top part was meant for me.  Lord Valyron is with Stannis, Aurane Waters is not even a true Valyron.  Thinking you know the absolute meaning of a prophecy is just stupid.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Just now, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I assume the top part was meant for me.  Lord Valyron is with Stannis, Aurane Waters is not even a true Valyron.  Thinking you know the absolute meaning of a prophecy is just stupid.

Lord Velaryon is on Stannis side but he is a little kid on Driftmark. I am not certain this is what will happen but it makes the most sense.

[Curled Finger]

Of course there is the obvious choice for Aurane Waters...he's just a greedy turn cloak punk who stole ships from Cersei to become a great pirate with no plans beyond that.   

[Isobel Harper]

6 hours ago, BeastMaster64 said:

Check the family tree there are no Velaryons with Stannis right now but we can assume that he has soldiers of House Velaryon with him.

There could be cousins, etc of Monford fighting for Stannis.  The appendix is not necessarily all inclusive with regard to family.

ETA: Monterys Velaryon might not be there personally, but that doesn't exclude other Velaryons from being there. 

[Isobel Harper]

On 11/5/2016 at 11:32 AM, LordImp said:

I think Loras holds DS , though i'm not entirely sure. Anyway i think a lot of shit will happen in Kings landing especially with the Tyrells , so i guess that Loras returns to KL. Which gives Aurane good odds when it comes to take Dragonstone . 

I almost forgot about Loras still (supposedly) holding Dragonstone.  

If Aegon (wow sample chapter)

Spoiler

succeeds in his battle outside Storm's End, maybe he holds Mace Tyrell hostage, making it imperative for Loras to surrender Dragonstone.

[Isobel Harper]

On 11/5/2016 at 11:32 AM, LordImp said:

I think Loras holds DS , though i'm not entirely sure. Anyway i think a lot of shit will happen in Kings landing especially with the Tyrells , so i guess that Loras returns to KL. Which gives Aurane good odds when it comes to take Dragonstone . 

Or, as you say, Loras will make another rash decision and rush to KL, making Dragonstone open for conquering.  Again. 

[LordImp]

7 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

Or, as you say, Loras will make another rash decision and rush to KL, making Dragonstone open for conquering.  Again. 

My pet theory is that Loras becomes the second Kingslayer and kills Tommen.