Is Ramsay a good field Commander?

[cpg2016]

On 7/6/2017 at 10:14 PM, marsyao said:

you are wrong, in the last book Roose recognized him as his trueborn son and gave him the name of Bolton, Roose recognize him as his bastard son before the book 1

No, you're wrong about this and it isn't even close.  Ramsay is at the Dreadfort until two years prior to the books starting, before which he had no formal military or strategic training or education at all.  Those two years are not enough to even begin to be a fine military man; even Roose acknowledges this when he says that Ramsay is fierce but not cunning enough.

Yes, Ramsay has now been legitimized, but the vast majority of his life was spent as a bastard, not living in the Dreadfort as a Bolton.  It is certain he did not receive the education that Robb or Bran (or any other son of a noble lord) received, and theirs start from a very young age

[Adam Yozza]

6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

He can't be. He has no experience and no training to speak off. Being a treacherous, cunning sociopath who can think on his feet, he has potential as a tactician and a possibly as a startegist if the situation can be resolved quickly.

Being a commander involves alot more things like logistics and discipline, which he may or may not be able to learn. The biggest counterpoint for that role is lack a patience and self-control.

That said, I find the situation described in the Pink Letter as a highly plausible outcome of the oncoming battle between Stannis's and Bolton forces. Stannis's is in desperate circumstances and the Boltons have sent out their forces in waves, whether out of foresight or due to the infighting. The first wave would, probably the Freys would spring the trap allowing Ramsay to exterminate the rest.

That's possible, but Stannis would probably take very few losses fighting the Frey force and the Manderly force at Winterfell is miniscule (not to mention, there's no guarantee they'd even fight Bolton). Ramsay could only win his fight if he had an equal or larger force. IIRC he got sent out with only the Bolton vanguard, the 600 mounted men he fought with at Winterfell. That's nowhere near enough to defeat even the clansmen in Stannis' force, never mind the southron veteren's and those who joined him from Deepwood and Bear Isle.

A far more likely scenario for Stannis losing, IMO, is that Stannis defeats both the Frey's and Ramsay; and the Manderly's if they fight; but is then wiped out when Roose leads the other five thousand guys in Winterfell out after sacrificing his bastard to weaken Stannis. I don't think he'll lose though; I feel like his story isn't done yet.

[The Sleeper]

42 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

That's possible, but Stannis would probably take very few losses fighting the Frey force and the Manderly force at Winterfell is miniscule (not to mention, there's no guarantee they'd even fight Bolton). Ramsay could only win his fight if he had an equal or larger force. IIRC he got sent out with only the Bolton vanguard, the 600 mounted men he fought with at Winterfell. That's nowhere near enough to defeat even the clansmen in Stannis' force, never mind the southron veteren's and those who joined him from Deepwood and Bear Isle.

A far more likely scenario for Stannis losing, IMO, is that Stannis defeats both the Frey's and Ramsay; and the Manderly's if they fight; but is then wiped out when Roose leads the other five thousand guys in Winterfell out after sacrificing his bastard to weaken Stannis. I don't think he'll lose though; I feel like his story isn't done yet.

Where did you read that about the Bolton vanguard? My assumption is that he went ahead with a force similar to the Freys at the least. After all they know how many men Stannis has with him and they want to get rid of useless mouths. Moreover it's a battle that Stannis can at best hope to survive. Victory would not get him any closer to taking Winterfell.

Stannis can only win if his side does very little fighting. His Southerners are too few and they can barely stand. The mountain clans are unlikely to be very effective in a pitched battle having little in the way of armor. I like the theory of using the frozen lake as a trap. The problem with it is that can only be sprung once, which would probably take care of the Freys. Then what though? The pink letter mentioning seven days of fighting is actually a plausible scenario. The Clans best option would be to disperse and resort to guerilla warfare. Provided there are contigents that are fighting on the wrong side there is a lot of potential for a chaotic battle that devolves into brawls and skirmishes in the surrounding forest.

Under these circumstances there is alot of room for confusion. Stannis could very well easily escape. He could either play some subterfuge himself or Ramsay use his own earlier idea after losing him mounting some random head on the walls like he did with Bran and Rickon. I am not as sure as you are about Stannis's survival though. I think the Boltons have their way to go yet. I think there are plausible scenarios where Bolton both wins and Stannis survives. One option is that Stannis and a few of his men sneak into Winterfell among Manderley's troops.

A long chaotic battle would also explain with why Bolton did not go after Theon and Jeyne himself. Suppose Theon and Jeyne left Stannis's encampment before the battle or at the beginning of it. If the battle itself took seven days, it would be a few more days sorting out the mess and finding out what had happened to them they would be long gone he would have had little chance of getting them back before they arrived at the Wall. Hence the letter to blackmail Jon.

I can think of no reason why Roose would move his ass from Winterfell.

ETA To clarify. I don't recall reading anything about the number and make up of the contigent Ramsay commands. I am assuming he would take enough men to assure victory. If you know differently can you provide a quote?

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

Where did you read that about the Bolton vanguard? My assumption is that he went ahead with a force similar to the Freys at the least. After all they know how many men Stannis has with him and they want to get rid of useless mouths. Moreover it's a battle that Stannis can at best hope to survive. Victory would not get him any closer to taking Winterfell.

Stannis can only win if his side does very little fighting. His Southerners are too few and they can barely stand. The mountain clans are unlikely to be very effective in a pitched battle having little in the way of armor. I like the theory of using the frozen lake as a trap. The problem with it is that can only be sprung once, which would probably take care of the Freys. Then what though? The pink letter mentioning seven days of fighting is actually a plausible scenario. The Clans best option would be to disperse and resort to guerilla warfare. Provided there are contigents that are fighting on the wrong side there is a lot of potential for a chaotic battle that devolves into brawls and skirmishes in the surrounding forest.

Under these circumstances there is alot of room for confusion. Stannis could very well easily escape. He could either play some subterfuge himself or Ramsay use his own earlier idea after losing him mounting some random head on the walls like he did with Bran and Rickon. I am not as sure as you are about Stannis's survival though. I think the Boltons have their way to go yet. I think there are plausible scenarios where Bolton both wins and Stannis survives. One option is that Stannis and a few of his men sneak into Winterfell among Manderley's troops.

A long chaotic battle would also explain with why Bolton did not go after Theon and Jeyne himself. Suppose Theon and Jeyne left Stannis's encampment before the battle or at the beginning of it. If the battle itself took seven days, it would be a few more days sorting out the mess and finding out what had happened to them they would be long gone he would have had little chance of getting them back before they arrived at the Wall. Hence the letter to blackmail Jon.

I can think of no reason why Roose would move his ass from Winterfell.

ETA To clarify. I don't recall reading anything about the number and make up of the contigent Ramsay commands. I am assuming he would take enough men to assure victory. If you know differently can you provide a quote?

Actually I can't find anything at all about Ramsay heading out of Winterfell. The only references to that I can find are the Pink Letter; possibly fake; and Theon's rambling that Ramsay would come for him. However, as far as I can see at no point during Dance does Ramsay lead any forces out of Winterfell. He most likely did/will do; but it doesn't seem like he has yet and so we can't speculate on his numbers. However I can't imagine Roose letting more the main body of Bolton men leave Winterfell; he'll do as he's always done which is let everyone else waste their strength while saving his own.

Hell, Roose might send Ramsay and his 600 men out after the Frey's and Manderly's specifically to get rid of the bastard. He can let those 3k men bleed Stannis and die in the attempt, and then just sit in Winterfell with his remaining 5k (estimated) and let Stannis freeze and starve without having to worry about infighting (Frey and Manderly) or his bastard trying to kill him, all while reducing the amount of mouths they have to feed.

[The Sleeper]

57 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Actually I can't find anything at all about Ramsay heading out of Winterfell. The only references to that I can find are the Pink Letter; possibly fake; and Theon's rambling that Ramsay would come for him. However, as far as I can see at no point during Dance does Ramsay lead any forces out of Winterfell. He most likely did/will do; but it doesn't seem like he has yet and so we can't speculate on his numbers. However I can't imagine Roose letting more the main body of Bolton men leave Winterfell; he'll do as he's always done which is let everyone else waste their strength while saving his own.

Hell, Roose might send Ramsay and his 600 men out after the Frey's and Manderly's specifically to get rid of the bastard. He can let those 3k men bleed Stannis and die in the attempt, and then just sit in Winterfell with his remaining 5k (estimated) and let Stannis freeze and starve without having to worry about infighting (Frey and Manderly) or his bastard trying to kill him, all while reducing the amount of mouths they have to feed.

I think I remember Ramsay preparing to ride out after the Freys and Manderlys. He would have to go if for no other reason than to recapture Jeyne. Besides without anyone following them it is almost sure that the Manderlys will turn their coats and help ambush the Freys.

Letting Stannis freeze and starve was plan A. Now that Jeyne has escaped and the situation in Winterfell is about to implode that is not a viable option. Nor can he afford this battle to go south. It could undermine his entire rule. He has plenty of others to send other than his own troops but he can't trust them. The way I see it is for him to send a significant portion of his forces and the Ryswells to keep the rest of them in line.

He can kill Ramsay any time he wants. Without Jeyne his usefulness is at an end. And they both know it.

[Makk]

I personally believe the Pink Letter was written by Ramsay although he was deliberately misled by Stannis about what happened in the battle between the Frey, Manderly, Karstark, and Stannis's forces. I think it is almost certain that Ramsay's next step would be to lead a hunting party of some size north looking for Jeyne. He may even intend to attack the wall, in which case he would need a significant force. But it will never come to this because Stannis is not defeated and may even be inside Winterfell (under the guise of returning Frey, Karstark and Manderly forces) by the time Ramsay sent the letter.

[Angel Eyes]

Did anyone get my joke?