Dany has a stranger in her house

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

This theory only relates to the plot of the HBO series and not the novels.

I first saw this idea proposed in a Youtube video that I'm too lazy to find right now.  Initially I thought it was nonsense but it was argued well enough that I got interested.  I went back and did some further research and now I'm convinced.

Varys is a traitor.

Considering season 7:

• Varys and Dany have a tense exchange where Viserys is mentioned.  She comments that her brother would have made a terrible leader and he should have known this.  He deflects this by saying he had little knowledge of Dany.  The question still stands: If Varys is so concerned with the welfare of the common folk, why would he orchestrate a Dothraki invasion to install Viserys on the Iron throne?  More on this later.
• Dany meets with Melisandre and is advised to summon Jon Snow.  Tyrion is completely surprised and Varys apparently has no awareness of the new KOTN, referring to him as "this, 'Jon Snow'".  But in the same episode we see Hot Pie telling Arya the whole story.  How is it possible that a Baker in the riverlands has better intelligence than Varys?  Remember that Varys is the same guy who arrived in Mereen and immediately plugged himself in to his intelligence network there.
• Varys later meets with Melisandre. He tells her not to return because Westeros won't be safe for her.  Why?  The Red Woman and the Dragon Queen hit it off in their first meeting.  Why would Westeros not be safe for her?  He also uses a phrase "like the Lion who tasted man" in referring to himself, which I thought was odd at the time.  Might be a subtle allusion to the Lannisters?
• Dany suffers several consecutive defeats early in her campaign.  Her fleet is destroyed (on the open sea and at night); her Unsullied are stranded after taking a worthless prize and Highgarden is sacked, eliminating the Tyrells.  Her enemies are ahead of her at every turn.  How is that possible if she has a loyal spider in her employ?
• Cersei's behavior is strange.  She isn't just confident, she's incredibly confident.  She's facing the greatest threat of her life and she's a bit too calm about it.  Does she know something?  At one point she says of Dany, "she just won a major victory and she thinks she's winning."  This could just be Cersei's mind at work but I'm not sure.
• The one major success Dany has is the loot train battle.  What's unique about this is that it seems to have been done with little planning or debate ahead of time.  in a fit of desperation, she just goes to Westeros to hit something.  But by the time Jamie returns to Kings landing, Cersei already knows about it.  The first words out of her mouth are "how many did we loose?"  Also, how did Cersei learn about Tyrion and Jamie's secret meeting?
• During the walk to the Dragon Pit, Bronn says that he's bringing Cersei "Two traitors".  Shouldn't this be "Three traitors" (Jon, Tyrion, Varys)?  I don't count this as strong evidence because it would mean Bronn knows more than he should, but it is interesting.

Considering previous seasons:

What has Varys ever actually done to undermine Lannister rule?  He visits Ned in the black cells, but doesn't free him even though he could.  He helps Tyrion escape but only after Jamie orders him to.  He helps conceal Shea's identity and he attempts to undermine Littlefinger with respect to Sansa Stark and the Tyrells.  Does any of this actually shift power away from the Lannisters?  I don't think it does. 

In season 1 we know that Varys is undermining King Robert, as evidenced by his secret meeting with Ilyrio Mopatis.  When he visits Ned in the dungeons, he tells him he can go to the wall and live out his life "with your brother and your bastard son", Demonstrating an awareness of Jon Snow that is absent in S7E2.  

In Season 2 Varys mentions Dany for the first time.  He says (in reference to her dragons) "it will be some time before they are fully grown; and then there'll be nowhere to hide."  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

In season 3 & 4, Varys provides intelligence to the small council on Dany and her army, works with Tywin to undermine her by exposing Jorah's betrayal and testifies against Tyrion. However, even when Joffrey sits on the throne, Varys is never shown as doing anything to destabilize his power.

At the end of season 4, Varys helps Tyrion escape.  What does he do then?  As soon as Tyrion is loaded on the boat, he turns around and starts walking back to the Red Keep.  It's only when the bells ring that he realizes what Tyrion has done and gets on the boat with him.  Then in Pentos, he seems to be totally on fire to hook up with Dany.  Isn't that strange?  Also, he tells Tyrion the he and a group of "mutual friends" realized what a disaster Robert was as king.  He never reveals who these friends are.

 

Speculation:

I think Varys helping Tyrion escape was merely removing a piece from the board.  Tyron would disappear into obscurity and the kingdoms would roll on without him.  Tywin's murder complicated things.  I think Varys made a deal with Cersei: "Let me back into your good graces and I'll help you crush the Dragon Queen.  She's going to invade sooner or later anyway, so let me bring her back on your terms.  I'll bring your enemies to her side and you can destroy them one-by-one because you'll have hyper accurate intelligence of everything they do before they do it.  I'll also deliver Tyrion back to you to execute or torture as you like.  To demonstrate my sincerety, here are my little birds for Qyburn to use for you." 

As for his initial plan with Viserys and the Dothraki, I'm not sure how that was going to go down, but remember Varys had his own high level spy embedded in that camp as well: Jorah Mormont.  Think of Jon Snow's activities prior to the Free Folk invasion.  Maybe the plan was to use the Dothraki to bleed the Lannister rivals.  I'm less sure about this.

As to the why, I think Varys is telling the truth when he says he cares for the common people.  He wants to see a balance of power in Westeros that produces the most peace over the long term. To this end, I think he understands that as long as you have a situation where the most powerful house isn't the one that rules, you will always have a higher potential for conflict.  He's looking for an "overarching hegemon".  It's true that the Lannisters have produced some terrible leaders (Joffrey) but they also produce some very competent ones (Tywin). This would be true for any House over the long term except one: the Targaryans.  They produce great leaders, bad leaders and utter monsters.

 

Thoughts?

[BalerionTheCat]

17 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

This theory only relates to the plot of the HBO series and not the novels.

Book Varys is not supporting Daenerys, but Aegon. Varys pretends he is Elia's son, exchanged with a random babe just before the Mountain came to kill him. However, Aegon is more likely a Blackfyre. The speculation is Varys himself is a Blackfyre, Aegon the son of Illyrio Mopatis, who wed Varys' sister Serra.

The Blackfyres and fake Aegon were removed from the show. But maybe D&D wish to give Varys his book's final fate by merging Aegon and Jon characters. In itself, giving the same name to different characters is unusual of D&D. They changed Asha in Yara, just to avoid the confusion with Osha. I don't remember Rhaegar first son explicitly named.But maybe there is some meaning behind Aegon name.

Varys words: "Because I know the people have no better chance than you" suggest Varys will support the one giving the best chances to the people. If not Daenerys, so be it.

Daenerys question about his motivation in supporting her unfit brother was a very good one. IMO, evidencing in the books that Varys support for the Targaryens has never been honest. Not even in the time of the Mad King. I nearly thought D&D were going to introduce the Blackfyres at the last minute. I don't think so. But Daenerys promise and Melisandre prediction of Varys' death is for me a clear foreshadowing of Varys future betrayal.

[falcotron]

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't remember Rhaegar first son explicitly named.

S3E04, Thoros: "House Clegane was built upon dead children. I saw them lay Prince Aegon and Princess Rhaenys before the Iron Throne."

Meanwhile, it's not hard to imagine that D&D thought the risk of confusion with a baby who we never saw and who was only mentioned a few times is much less than the risk of confusion with a recurring character. In fact, it's even plausible that they changed his name from Aemon to Aegon to reduce the risk of confusion.

Of course in the other direction, it's also possible that Jon being named Aegon is so important that they felt they couldn't change it. (I'm not sure why it would be so important, but then I haven't read the last two books or the outline GRRM gave D&D, so that could just be a failure of my imagination.)

At any rate, it's beyond question that fAegon's story in the book has mostly been divided up among Cersei, Dany, and Jon so far, rather than just erased, so it wouldn't be at all unexpected if there were a part of his upcoming story that they gave to Jon, just as you suggest.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

4 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Daenerys question about his motivation in supporting her unfit brother was a very good one. IMO, evidencing in the books that Varys support for the Targaryens has never been honest. Not even in the time of the Mad King. I nearly thought D&D were going to introduce the Blackfyres at the last minute. I don't think so. But Daenerys promise and Melisandre prediction of Varys' death is for me a clear foreshadowing of Varys future betrayal.

Alt-Shift-X has a really good video detailing his Varys=Blackfire theory.  I thought it was convincing.

I thought the mention of the Golden Company (episode 4 I think) was just a throw away line.  Given the number of episodes left and the ground they need to cover, I didn't think they'd try to develop a golden company storyline, but it looks like we will be seeing them next season.

When Cersei first mentions them it almost sounds like the plan to hire them came from Qyburn.  "My hand, Qyburn, has made overtures to the Golden company", not, "I have ordered Qyburn to...".  What if Varys is playing Qyburn? What if the Golden Company is the "mutual friends" Varys is referring to back in season 5? Varys playing both sides against each other to seat a Blackfyre on the throne would align with his story so far.  fAegon or no, It would also align somewhat with the storyline from the books.

Anyway, Cersei is bringing a powerful army composed of Weserosi exiles and founded by failed userpers back home.  What could possibly go wrong?  After all, the last time she was this clever she armed the Faith Militant.  Look how well that turned out.

As an aside, I'm also getting the feeling we will see the Iron Bank reduced to ash next season.

[falcotron]

26 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

After all, the last time she was this clever she armed the Faith Militant.  Look how well that turned out.

Well, in the end, that gambit took Margy and her family, and the Faith, and just about everyone else out of the game besides her, leaving a power vacuum that she could step into and declare herself Queen. Yes, the casualties included her own son, the very reason she was doing it, and yes, she's become Queen of a badly weakened and destabilized country, but still, she is Queen. And she thinks she can fix everything, and, as unlikely as it it seems, maybe she's right.

So maybe this time, it'll take out Dany and Jon and just about everyone else out of the game, including even her beloved brother, leaving her even more firmly in charge but of an even more badly weakened and destabilized country. Sure, she'd be headed for going down in history as the Queen who lost Westeros to the dead (assuming there's even anyone left to write the history), but still, she's the Queen who gets to do that. And she thinks she can fix everything, and, as unlikely as it seems, maybe she's right.

I'm not sure what her next gambit would be, but presumably it involves defeating the Night King by destroying the entire continent of Westeros, leaving her the only survivor and therefore completely unchallengeable even in principle.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 hour ago, falcotron said:

Well, in the end, that gambit took Margy and her family, and the Faith, and just about everyone else out of the game besides her, leaving a power vacuum that she could step into and declare herself Queen. Yes, the casualties included her own son, the very reason she was doing it, and yes, she's become Queen of a badly weakened and destabilized country, but still, she is Queen. And she thinks she can fix everything, and, as unlikely as it it seems, maybe she's right.

...and all of that hinges on Qyburn and the little birds (which ultimately track back to Varys).  It's never really explained how Qyburn inherited Varys spy network, it just sort of happens. It's pure luck that Qyburn is with her at all: having survived the massacre at Harrenhall and later treating Jamie's injuries.

Without Qyburn, Gregor Clegane would be in the ground, the Sept would still be standing and all her rivals would still be alive.  She's more lucky than clever.

[MrJay]

Honestly, I'm loving fan theories more than the show. It would be wonderful and make sense for there to be false friends on Daenys side. 

It's too easy to sneak in and become her buddy since she has no one. She's young, has no experience with the backstabbing of the west, and a queen needs a council. 

 

Sadly, 6 episodes dude. Unless they change their mind, there is no way all these plot points can be followed and resolved. It is what it is. I expect maybe one twist before the big reveal that the Night King was Dio the whole time, and this isn't it. 

[btfu806]

10 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Alt-Shift-X has a really good video detailing his Varys=Blackfire theory.  I thought it was convincing.

I thought the mention of the Golden Company (episode 4 I think) was just a throw away line.  Given the number of episodes left and the ground they need to cover, I didn't think they'd try to develop a golden company storyline, but it looks like we will be seeing them next season.

When Cersei first mentions them it almost sounds like the plan to hire them came from Qyburn.  "My hand, Qyburn, has made overtures to the Golden company", not, "I have ordered Qyburn to...".  What if Varys is playing Qyburn? What if the Golden Company is the "mutual friends" Varys is referring to back in season 5? Varys playing both sides against each other to seat a Blackfyre on the throne would align with his story so far.  fAegon or no, It would also align somewhat with the storyline from the books.

Anyway, Cersei is bringing a powerful army composed of Weserosi exiles and founded by failed userpers back home.  What could possibly go wrong?  After all, the last time she was this clever she armed the Faith Militant.  Look how well that turned out.

As an aside, I'm also getting the feeling we will see the Iron Bank reduced to ash next season.

I think Varys being a trader is very possible and they will hopefully do something like that in the show. I feel like his character has to have something left to him. But he maybe going down the same path as LF, which would kinda be sad. I don't think they will get into the Blackfyre theory and what not (I think f/Aegon and Jon Snow and pushed together in the show) but maybe he will have some connection to the Gold Company. Assuming that every episode next season is a long one, 90 minutes, that would make the season total 9 hours long. Which is almost as long as any other standard season before it. That SHOULD be more than enough time to have Varys be a trader or some interesting plot twist.

With the finale 6 episodes it will be interesting how much time they allocate to the final WW battle and the final battle with Cersei. My gut feeling says the WW thing will be cleared up by episode 3-ish. But take up most of the episode. Cersei will be after that and last to episode 5. I hope they just slow down the pace just a tiny bit in the show instead of trying to do something like invent plot wheels so characters can just sit around doing nothing for no reason. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

15 hours ago, MrJay said:

Sadly, 6 episodes dude. Unless they change their mind, there is no way all these plot points can be followed and resolved. It is what it is. I expect maybe one twist before the big reveal that the Night King was Dio the whole time, and this isn't it. 

In previous seasons where you tracked 5-6 storylines simultaneously, I would agree.  But many of those threads have either been cut or they have converged with other threads.  I think there might be room to do a compressed GC story in that many episodes, particularly if its a part of the main KL storyline.

Remember that the High Sparrow was only introduced in S5E3. By S5E7 he's already locked up Cersei, Margery and Loras and by S5E10 Cersei is doing her walk of shame.  So it is possible.

[btfu806]

Just now, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I previous seasons where you tracked 5-6 storylines simultaneously, I would agree.  But many of those threads have either been cut or they have converged with other threads.  I think there might be room to do a compressed GC story in that many episodes, particularly if its a part of the main KL storyline.

Remember that the High Sparrow was only introduced in S5E3. By S5E7 he's already locked up Cersei, Margery and Loras and by S5E10 Cersei is doing her walk of shame.  So it is possible.

That and these episodes, supposedly, will be longer. So the total run time this 8th season could be 9 hours. Only an hour shorter than previous seasons (excluding the seventh season of course).

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

15 hours ago, MrJay said:

It's too easy to sneak in and become her buddy since she has no one. She's young, has no experience with the backstabbing of the west, and a queen needs a council. 

Varys undermined Robert for years without being exposed.

Varys also has an actual track record where Dany is concerned (helping bring peace to Mereen, facilitating the alliance with Dorne and Highgarden) and has a bulletproof cover story (liberating Tyrion and bringing him into Dany's service). As far as double agents go, it's hard to beat that.

The one person with the brains and the experience to piece this all together is Tyrion.  I think the early defeats are still grinding in his mind and he might get there eventually, but Tyrion has a total blind spot when it comes to Varys, for obvious reasons.

Jorah might be able to fill in a few pieces.  So could Davos for that matter (Exactly how did Euron stalk and destroy Yara's fleet on the open sea at night?). Or Bran could shed some light on things. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 hour ago, btfu806 said:

That and these episodes, supposedly, will be longer. So the total run time this 8th season could be 9 hours. Only an hour shorter than previous seasons (excluding the seventh season of course).

I approve of this.