The Catspaw - means, motive, and opportunity

[LiveFirstDieLater]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

When Bran fell, it would seem to Joff that the problem had resolved itself.

What problem are you talking about? 

You are really saying you think Jof was planning to kill Bran since before his arrival? Do you have any evidence or just total speculation...

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

When Ned came south anyway, Joff sent the CP in a last ditch effort to change his mind. Accidentally falling from a tower is one thing, cold-blooded murder is quite another.

So after traveling to Winterfell with the express purpose of returning with Ned to serve as Hand... Jof waits until they are already returning home to leave an assassin behind to kill Bran... to stop Ned’s trip to King’s Landing?

Not only does this make no sense, how would they even learn about the attempt before they got back to King’s Landing?

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Joff is an idiot. As Tyrion surmised, he probably thought the whole plan was the height of cleverness.

Ok, but even idiots need motives... and I simply do not believe stopping Ned makes any sense, he was in King’s Landing before he even found out.

Because you are suggesting he was smart enough to secretly convince an assassin to wait behind in the stables until they were gone, but didn’t realize they’d already be gone by the time of the assasination so it’d be too late for Ned to not come South.

got it

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

LF didn't have to mention the dagger or the CP at all. That was all Joff's doing. And Joff thought it was just a plain dagger (in his own words, dragonbone is "too plain"). If not from the royal armory, where else is the crown prince supposed to acquire a dagger without anyone else knowing about it?

Why the hell would someone sent to kill a cripple in a coma need a knife?!?

Let alone an incredibly valuable and indentifiable one? 

The guy had already been paid... see the silver... 

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Comatose Bran is the easiest target at this point.

So easy he needs a special knife? Come on!

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Earlier, he may very well have been planning an "accident" when he challenged Robb to duel with live steel. Later, on the Trident, he may have been planning another one for Sansa.

Hahahaha ok, sure why not, he went though an assasinating phase, but just for the trip to Winterfell and back, where he briefly decided to try and secretly kill all the Stark Children... it passed by the time he got home again, and he never felt like assasinating anyone again. Whatever, makes almost as little sense as him sending an assassin after Bran.

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The motive for LF is as it always has been, to sow discord between wolf and lion so as to ratchet up the chaos in the realm. For Joffrey, he thinks he is doing this to protect his dad, his mum, uncle, house, perhaps even the realm, but mostly himself.

First of all, chaos isn’t a goal... LF isn’t trying to just see the word burn... let’s not confuse this with the TV show.

No question LF is ambitious, and he did play lion against wolf... but there just isn’t any reason to suspect him of this. He wasn’t there, he benefits nothing from his own knife being used, and there simply isn’t evidence to support it.

It’s far more probable that upon realizing the dagger was his, he lied to get Starks and Lannisters to fight wach other, AND so the knife would not be brought before the king, who could easily have identified it as LFs.

After all, by far the most plausible explanation was Bran’s fall and the assassin were the same party and due to him hearing/seeing something. It is the obvious conclusion, and if we didn’t have POVs from the twincesters would probably be the most believable.

If we rule them out we need to find another reasonable motive, Jof and LF both lack any reasonable motive.

[Kandrax]

7 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

blade... Note the mention of the baggage train where the dagger was, the freeriders where the assassin came from, and the Stark children... throw in that the assassin was blonde and Mance returned North to dig in the Frostfangs and gather the Wildlings to attack the Wall with Val who is also blonde... and it may be the answer to who sent the assassin and burned the Library.

Mance had reason to steal a Valyrian dagger, and may well have only given it to the assassin to use to stir up trouble south of the wall after Bran’s fall.

How can Mance be sure that Bran's death will stir troubles?

Assassin having blond hair doesn't mean anything.

[Nevets]

I am of the opinion that Joffrey is responsible for the catspaw.

Motive:  Joffrey both idolizes his father and compares himself to him.  He also says later: "A good King acts strongly.  He doesn't just talk".  Joffrey heard Robert's talk about how it would be merciful and the right thing to put Bran out of his misery, so to say.  But Robert wasn't willing to actually do that.  Joffrey may have been trying to prove to himself that he was strong enough to be king, and better than his father.  Not a great motive, but it beats everything else I have seen so far.

Dagger:  Given it's presence in Robert's belongings, Joffrey would have had access to it.  Other candidates don't.  Valyrian steel has two advantages: it is very effective, and it is quite valuable.  He could have given the catspaw the dagger to aid in the crime itself, and as part payment, as even if sold at a steep discount, it would probably get him quite a bit of money.

Littlefinger certainly has motive after Bran's fall, in that it adds to the suspicions of the Lannisters.  But he has no way to act on this fact, and I don't buy the "autopilot" schemes that would have been set up beforehand. Littlefinger isn't that reckless..

Mance has no really convincing motive, nor access to the dagger.  Also, I have doubts about why he would have even still been at Winterfell the day before the royal party's planned departure.  And given the catspaw's comments about "mercy", I think that that was at least intended as the supposed motive, suggesting it was set up after Bran's fall.

While I can't say I particularly like Joffrey as the suspect, it makes a lot more sense to me than any of the alternatives.

[Euron Lannister]

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

who decided to take his bag of silver with him

yes, normally people take money with them when they leave home

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

steal back his own dagger from the King’s armory

yes, since he has enough people who can proove it was passed to the king, which means cersei would have access to it, and it is special enough to get noticed

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

get caught with the dagger.... and then what?

if the stark is dead or not, with a dagger from the king's arsenal, the starks would suspect the king or his closest comapnions, and with lysas letter they would suspect it was a lannister/ cersei

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

The assassin expected to escape, since he left the silver in the stable.

yes he did, LF would be stupid if he told him that he planned on him failing

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And the fact that it is there at all implies he was paid in Winterfell... otherwise why bring it all in a dangerous job. 

because you need money to get back to KL and to survive, and if he is from a poor place, the best protection for his money would be carrying it around

9 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

This doesn’t fit with the details... no one was s’posed to be there, the distraction fire, the silver still in the stables. The plan wasn’t to be caught, what kind of plan would that be.

LF planned that the catspaw will be caught, but didn't tell him, that would have been stupid.

10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Why would LF send a man to steal his own dagger and use it to kill a Stark? He tries to cover up that it’s his dagger later, why would he have planned to use it in the first place?

because it is a notable item, and possibly the only one he knew from the king's arsenal

10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Because it was his dagger and the King would know that. By implicating the Lannisters Ned no longer feels confident he can take it to the King.

but he told them it was his, it wouldn't change anything if he told them it was robert's when he hadn't to do anything with it.

10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

expected to survive...

and why shouldn't he do that

10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

We are all entitled to our opinions!

true.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

15 hours ago, Kandrax said:

How can Mance be sure that Bran's death will stir troubles?

Assassin having blond hair doesn't mean anything.

Mance would know that Ned Stark had gone south to be Hand... he took a look at the lannisters and the king and the Starks while in Winterfell, per his description.

He’s about to gather all the Wildlings and after digging in the Frostfangs (did he find something in the Library before it burned?) he is invading the Seven Kingdoms where all Kings beyond the Wall have failed before, broken by the Nights Watch or the Stark of Winterfell. This is a real and convincing motive, to cause enmity among his enemies and remove a stark from winterfell. 

Not to mention mercy, let’s talk about mercy...

If not a word I would ever associate with Jof... Cersei says Robert said it would be a mercy to kill Bran when he was raging drunk and Jof overheard... Jaime immediately questions this as someone who has guarded Robert his entire reign. In fact, Cersei herself said on page it would have been no mercy to let the boy live...

But Cersei has a reason to say this, not actually meaning mercy... she just doesn’t want Bran waking up and telling.

Who actually believes killing Bran would be a mercy? And why did I bother pointing out the assassin was blonde, and that Mance returned North with his new birds and Val?

Because Val makes it clear she would have thought it a mercy, wouldn’t Mance as well?

Quote

 

"It is not always mortal in children."

"North of the Wall it is. Hemlock is a sure cure, but a pillow or a blade will work as well. If I had given birth to that poor child, I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago."

This was a Val that Jon had never seen before.

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Wow, triple post, double sry

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Sry double post

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

What problem are you talking about? 

You are really saying you think Jof was planning to kill Bran since before his arrival? Do you have any evidence or just total speculation...

The problem of how to prevent Ned from accepting the appointment as Hand. He was not planning to kill Bran, or to kill anyone. He just needs to cause something to happen that would spur Ned to refuse the offer -- the death of a Stark child, any Stark child, seems to be the most obvious, however. He might have been thinking of ways to kill Ned himself.

This is all speculation on my part. There is no evidence. I'm just saying that people should not be so quick to dismiss Littlefinger as the culprit behind the catspaw just because he was not in Winterfell and did not know about Bran's fall. 

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

So after traveling to Winterfell with the express purpose of returning with Ned to serve as Hand... Jof waits until they are already returning home to leave an assassin behind to kill Bran... to stop Ned’s trip to King’s Landing?

Not only does this make no sense, how would they even learn about the attempt before they got back to King’s Landing?

It was not Joff's purpose to return with Ned to serve as Hand. That was Robert's desire.

Joff waited until they were returning to KL because before that it was still possible that Ned would refuse the offer. Besides, with the royal party still at Winterfell, some 300 retainers I believe, the castle is too crowded to get an assassin to Bran unseen.

If Bran was murdered in his sleep, word would get to the royal caravan long before they reached KL. There are numerous castles, keeps and other waypoints along the way, and ravens fly pretty fast.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Ok, but even idiots need motives... and I simply do not believe stopping Ned makes any sense, he was in King’s Landing before he even found out.

Because you are suggesting he was smart enough to secretly convince an assassin to wait behind in the stables until they were gone, but didn’t realize they’d already be gone by the time of the assasination so it’d be too late for Ned to not come South.

The motive is as I said: Joff has been tricked into believing that Ned as Hand will be bad for Joffrey, and probably Joffrey's succession in particular, and this is the only way to prevent it. Ned only found out about the attempt in KL because Catelyn brought the news to him herself rather than trust it to a raven. If Bran had died, however, that news would have been released immediately.

Besides, let's consider what happens next: no word of Bran's death reaches the royal party, and suddenly we have Prince Joffrey and the eldest daughter of the HotK gallivanting off through unfamiliar lands, no guards, no escorts and no witnesses to see what happens to a drunken young girl on the banks of a fast-moving river.

It wasn't Joffrey's smarts the convinced the assassin, it was his silver. They were only eight days gone; not too late for Ned to call it quits and return home out of fear for his family. Actually, it is, but Joffrey wouldn't realize this.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Why the hell would someone sent to kill a cripple in a coma need a knife?!?

Let alone an incredibly valuable and indentifiable one? 

The guy had already been paid... see the silver... 

So easy he needs a special knife? Come on!

This is all Joffrey's part of the plan. Of course it's stupid, he's a stupid kid. In fact, he's the worst kind of stupid because he thinks he is height of cleverness and cunning.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Hahahaha ok, sure why not, he went though an assasinating phase, but just for the trip to Winterfell and back, where he briefly decided to try and secretly kill all the Stark Children... it passed by the time he got home again, and he never felt like assasinating anyone again. Whatever, makes almost as little sense as him sending an assassin after Bran.

Joffrey isn't doing this just because he feels like it, but because he's been manipulated into thinking he has to do it. Once Ned is in KL and is Hand, there is very little likelihood that the death of either of his daughters would cause him to return home, particularly if it's an obvious murder. Ned is the chief law enforcement officer in the realm, and if he is already there investigating the death of Jon Arryn he most certainly will not rest, or leave, until he finds his daughter's killer. Secondly, there is very little contact between Joffrey and the Starks following the incident on the Trident -- it's pretty much limited to public events where there are numerous witnesses. How easy do you think it is to send an assassin into the Tower of the Hand? Besides, once Ned becomes Hand and nothing bad happens to Joffrey, his motivation is gone.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

First of all, chaos isn’t a goal... LF isn’t trying to just see the word burn... let’s not confuse this with the TV show.

No question LF is ambitious, and he did play lion against wolf... but there just isn’t any reason to suspect him of this. He wasn’t there, he benefits nothing from his own knife being used, and there simply isn’t evidence to support it.

It’s far more probable that upon realizing the dagger was his, he lied to get Starks and Lannisters to fight wach other, AND so the knife would not be brought before the king, who could easily have identified it as LFs.

After all, by far the most plausible explanation was Bran’s fall and the assassin were the same party and due to him hearing/seeing something. It is the obvious conclusion, and if we didn’t have POVs from the twincesters would probably be the most believable.

If we rule them out we need to find another reasonable motive, Jof and LF both lack any reasonable motive.

Whatever you want to call it, LF's desire is to ratchet up the tension between wolf and lion. That was the whole point of the letter from Lysa. He gets a little tension if he can cause Starks to suspect the Lannisters were behind the Arryn murder, imagine how much more there would be if they suspect them of killing one of their own?

LF did not know that a knife would be used at all, let alone which knife. And the whole story about who owned the knife and who lost it to whom is convoluted at this point. It may turn out that it wasn't Littlefinger's and never was. Plus, LF was not in Winterfell, so even if it turns out that he once owned the knife and lost it to Robert or Tyrion or whomever, there's still no reason to suspect LF was involved. Clean hands.

Sorry, but the motivations are plain as day: Littlefinger's is real, Joffrey's is a lie.

 

[Kandrax]

2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

not a word I would ever associate with Jof...

As i said earlier there is a posibility that Joff hired Catspaw only because Tyrion slapped him, because of Bran.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The problem of how to prevent Ned from accepting the appointment as Hand. He was not planning to kill Bran, or to kill anyone. He just needs to cause something to happen that would spur Ned to refuse the offer -- the death of a Stark child, any Stark child, seems to be the most obvious, however. He might have been thinking of ways to kill Ned himself.

There is no evidence this was ever anyone’s plan...

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This is all speculation on my part. There is no evidence. I'm just saying that people should not be so quick to dismiss Littlefinger as the culprit behind the catspaw just because he was not in Winterfell and did not know about Bran's fall. 

It is a pretty good reason to know it wasn’t him behind the attack... nothing I’ve heard makes me think this is any less silly...

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It was not Joff's purpose to return with Ned to serve as Hand. That was Robert's desire.

It was the purpose of the King’s whole trip... why everyone, including Jof, went to Winterfell.

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Joff waited until they were returning to KL because before that it was still possible that Ned would refuse the offer. Besides, with the royal party still at Winterfell, some 300 retainers I believe, the castle is too crowded to get an assassin to Bran unseen.

If Bran was murdered in his sleep, word would get to the royal caravan long before they reached KL. There are numerous castles, keeps and other waypoints along the way, and ravens fly pretty fast.

There is no evidence news would have traveled faster if Bran died, again these this is just wild speculation, and frankly I don’t think it makes sense.

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The motive is as I said: Joff has been tricked into believing that Ned as Hand will be bad for Joffrey, and probably Joffrey's succession in particular, and this is the only way to prevent it.

Ned had no reason to hamper Jof’s succession at this point, he’s engaged to Ned’s daughter for goodness sake... until Bran saw Cersei/Jaime and was thrown from the tower there was no reason to target Bran over the issue, both these reasons strongly contradict your suggestion that LF somehow convinced Jof Ned was a threat before he came to King’s Landing.

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Ned only found out about the attempt in KL because Catelyn brought the news to him herself rather than trust it to a raven. If Bran had died, however, that news would have been released immediately.

There is no reason to believe this.

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Besides, let's consider what happens next: no word of Bran's death reaches the royal party, and suddenly we have Prince Joffrey and the eldest daughter of the HotK gallivanting off through unfamiliar lands, no guards, no escorts and no witnesses to see what happens to a drunken young girl on the banks of a fast-moving river.

The lack of adult supervision was clearly an error on someone’s part, but there is nothing suspicious about two young people engaged going on a walk by the river.

I see no reason to suspect Jof of fowl play here unless you have any actual evidence.

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It wasn't Joffrey's smarts the convinced the assassin, it was his silver. They were only eight days gone; not too late for Ned to call it quits and return home out of fear for his family. Actually, it is, but Joffrey wouldn't realize this.

It doesn’t make sense...

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This is all Joffrey's part of the plan. Of course it's stupid, he's a stupid kid. In fact, he's the worst kind of stupid because he thinks he is height of cleverness and cunning.

This half plotting, using identifiable daggers as misdirection, but at the same time is really stupid dichotomy doesn’t work for me... Jof isn’t a schemer, he doesn’t ever come up with anything sneaky or clever I can think of, even killing Ned seemed pretty spur of the moment and at least wasn’t well thought out, nothing about this fits his character.

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Joffrey isn't doing this just because he feels like it, but because he's been manipulated into thinking he has to do it. Once Ned is in KL and is Hand, there is very little likelihood that the death of either of his daughters would cause him to return home, particularly if it's an obvious murder. Ned is the chief law enforcement officer in the realm, and if he is already there investigating the death of Jon Arryn he most certainly will not rest, or leave, until he finds his daughter's killer. Secondly, there is very little contact between Joffrey and the Starks following the incident on the Trident -- it's pretty much limited to public events where there are numerous witnesses. How easy do you think it is to send an assassin into the Tower of the Hand? Besides, once Ned becomes Hand and nothing bad happens to Joffrey, his motivation is gone.

A few things. First, this seems completely contradictory to me, the Ned threatening Jof motive arguement here. Second, it still makes no sense to me the idea that the assassin was to make Ned go home. Third, Tyrion assasinated Tywin in the tower of the Hand pretty easily.

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Whatever you want to call it, LF's desire is to ratchet up the tension between wolf and lion. That was the whole point of the letter from Lysa. He gets a little tension if he can cause Starks to suspect the Lannisters were behind the Arryn murder, imagine how much more there would be if they suspect them of killing one of their own?

He already made his move with the letter from Lysa, which if anything makes Ned want to go to King’s Landon to investigate... killing his kid in Winterfell is counterproductive per your own argument about making Ned go home... we are going in circles here.

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LF did not know that a knife would be used at all, let alone which knife. And the whole story about who owned the knife and who lost it to whom is convoluted at this point. It may turn out that it wasn't Littlefinger's and never was. Plus, LF was not in Winterfell, so even if it turns out that he once owned the knife and lost it to Robert or Tyrion or whomever, there's still no reason to suspect LF was involved. Clean hands.

Because he wasn’t involved and wasn’t there, that’s why he’s not a suspect, it makes no sense... but his lies about Tyrion cause Cat to kidnap him and starts the War of Five Kings. Don’t confuse this with instigating the assasination in the first place.

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Sorry, but the motivations are plain as day: Littlefinger's is real, Joffrey's is a lie.

There is literally nothing connecting LF to the assasination except the dagger even you admit he had no way to know was used in the assasination... this is all silly.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

50 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

As i said earlier there is a posibility that Joff hired Catspaw only because Tyrion slapped him, because of Bran.

It is possible, I understand that Jof being behind the assassin is the commonly accepted answer to this mystery. I find it unsatisfying and lacking in rationality, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

However, Tyrion’s “logic” in deciding it was Jof, and this why most readers come to this conclusion, is horribly flawed. To the point it seems to me intentionally so. All the evidence he has is circumstantial at best, access to the dagger doesn’t really limit the candidates at all, and actually Tyrion remembers that conversation in the courtyard incorrectly. Jof threatened to have the wolf killed, not Bran. Cersei also seems to conflate her own comments about mercy with a drunk Robert we never saw on page. And of course there is really no motive for Jof besides maybe spite (I find more believable than mercy) or somehow proving his strength except nobody would know it was him so that makes no sense. 

The argument and Jof’s threat, it should be noted, took place in a crowded castle courtyard... so was no secret, and might well have inspired some observer who is secretly in Winterfell feeling things out to try and pin a Stark murder on Lannisters.

[John Suburbs]

3 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

snip

Like I said, there is no evidence for any of this and I am in no way, shape or form declaring this to be the truth. Just that it shouldn't be dismissed so readily. Call if silly, if that's your take, but if your problem is lack of evidence, then mayhaps you should re-evaluate your own claims about Mance.

To equate Joffrey making the trip because he was commanded to with the idea that Joffrey actually wants Ned to become Hand is pretty poor logic.

Bran's death would be significant news, certainly worthy of ravens and riders to inform his own lord father that his son is dead.

Of course Ned is no real threat to Joff. This is a lie told by Littlefinger. In case you haven't noticed, this is the way LF operates: he tells lies in order to manipulate people.

Bran was not targeted until he was comatose, and even then only because he was a helpless victim at that point. It has nothing to do with Bran personally.

You think that if Bran died they would have just buried that fact? Not bother to tell Ned about it until months later when he reaches KL? Please.

These are not just two young people, they are the future king and queen. If anything, the Hound should have lost his head when he apparently took the rest of the day off just because Joffrey told him to back off Sansa. He is Joffrey's sworn shield, bound to protect him from all enemies.

Joffrey is not a plotter or a schemer, thus the incredibly ill-conceived and poorly executed plan. LF would never have green-lit such a stupid idea if he had known, or maybe he would if it served his purpose of building enmity between the houses and he could keep his hands clean.

The idea for Joffrey is to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. The idea for LF is to sow discord between wolf and lion.

Easy? You call that easy? First, Tyrion has to climb 230 iron rungs set into the wall, an agonizing feat that he only managed to do because he was driven by intense anger. That led him to a secret, child-sized passage that only Varys and his little birds know about, and Shae. He then steals the crossbow and finds his father on the privy. So, tell me, how would Joffrey or his man accomplish this, not knowing about the ladder or the secret passage?

LF's intent is not to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. That's only the lie he tells Joffrey. LF knows, as does Cat and Tyrion, that if Robert wants Ned as Hand, Ned will be Hand. But if Ned does flee back to Winterfell with his tail between his legs, what of it? Plenty of ways to cause trouble in the realm with Robert now doubting Ned's loyalty and Jaime as Hand.

Littlefinger tells lies to people and they react in ways that are bad for them but good for Littlefinger. Same MO with Cat and the dagger, and it's the same thing he does to Joffrey later with the dwarf joust and perhaps with Ned's execution. It's what he does.

This is the whole point about making sure your hands are clean. LF is behind it, but there is nothing to connect him to it, just like the JA murder, Joffrey's death, Sansa's escape ... How many more examples do we need to demonstrate LF's ability to manipulate things when he either is, or supposedly is, many leagues away. Setting Joffrey up like this is exactly what LF does to people, over and over again.

 

 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Like I said, there is no evidence for any of this and I am in no way, shape or form declaring this to be the truth. Just that it shouldn't be dismissed so readily. Call if silly, if that's your take, but if your problem is lack of evidence, then mayhaps you should re-evaluate your own claims about Mance.

Mance himself says he brought a bag of silver with him when sneaking into Winterfell... that alone is more hard evidence than any other candidate we’ve considered.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

To equate Joffrey making the trip because he was commanded to with the idea that Joffrey actually wants Ned to become Hand is pretty poor logic.

Not what I was saying... the entire trip, and everyone along for the ride, were traveling because the King wants Ned as his Hand... this is not a small endevor, and so consider that on your scales, as Ned and Cat discuss, he didn’t go all that way to hear no for an answer.

Since Ned came south after Bran fell, there is no reason to think he would turn around because of an assasination attempt. 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Bran's death would be significant news, certainly worthy of ravens and riders to inform his own lord father that his son is dead.

Only if Winterfell chose to send them, which they did not for an assasination attempt... and we have no reason to suspect it would be different if Bran had died... 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course Ned is no real threat to Joff. This is a lie told by Littlefinger. In case you haven't noticed, this is the way LF operates: he tells lies in order to manipulate people.

Ned is a real threat to Jof, in case you didn’t notice.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Bran was not targeted until he was comatose, and even then only because he was a helpless victim at that point. It has nothing to do with Bran personally.

So you admit it makes no sense to say LF was somehow planning this before Bran fell?

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You think that if Bran died they would have just buried that fact? Not bother to tell Ned about it until months later when he reaches KL? Please.

They would have sent a person, just like they did, for the reasons they explain. 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

These are not just two young people, they are the future king and queen. If anything, the Hound should have lost his head when he apparently took the rest of the day off just because Joffrey told him to back off Sansa. He is Joffrey's sworn shield, bound to protect him from all enemies.

Ok, I agree a chaperone would be nice, but these aren’t the first kids to sneak off for a day... it’s hardly even remarkable.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey is not a plotter or a schemer, thus the incredibly ill-conceived and poorly executed plan. LF would never have green-lit such a stupid idea if he had known, or maybe he would if it served his purpose of building enmity between the houses and he could keep his hands clean.

Again comments like this are contradictory...

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The idea for Joffrey is to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. The idea for LF is to sow discord between wolf and lion.

As I’ve tried to explain this doesn’t make sense...

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Easy? You call that easy? First, Tyrion has to climb 230 iron rungs set into the wall, an agonizing feat that he only managed to do because he was driven by intense anger. That led him to a secret, child-sized passage that only Varys and his little birds know about, and Shae. He then steals the crossbow and finds his father on the privy. So, tell me, how would Joffrey or his man accomplish this, not knowing about the ladder or the secret passage?

If a dwarf who has trouble with stairs can do it, it can’t be that hard... you picked a bad example that’s all... I don’t think Jof was trying to assasinate anyone. 

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

LF's intent is not to prevent Ned from becoming Hand. That's only the lie he tells Joffrey. LF knows, as does Cat and Tyrion, that if Robert wants Ned as Hand, Ned will be Hand. But if Ned does flee back to Winterfell with his tail between his legs, what of it? Plenty of ways to cause trouble in the realm with Robert now doubting Ned's loyalty and Jaime as Hand.

I don’t even know what you are arguing at this point...

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Littlefinger tells lies to people and they react in ways that are bad for them but good for Littlefinger. Same MO with Cat and the dagger, and it's the same thing he does to Joffrey later with the dwarf joust and perhaps with Ned's execution. It's what he does.

There is no reason to leap from this to thinking there was some autopilot Jof premeditated Bran Assasination plot in the works by LF... sorry, lying about the dagger doesn’t mean he was behind it all.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

This is the whole point about making sure your hands are clean. LF is behind it, but there is nothing to connect him to it, just like the JA murder, Joffrey's death, Sansa's escape ... How many more examples do we need to demonstrate LF's ability to manipulate things when he either is, or supposedly is, many leagues away. Setting Joffrey up like this is exactly what LF does to people, over and over again.

LF hands being clear isn’t evidence... in fact, it is an absence of evidence... think about what you are saying

There are direct connections and obvious motives for LF to be behind Sansa’s escape, And Jof’s and Arryn’s murders.

 

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

snip

Hardly. It's a bag of silver. There is plenty of silver in the 7K, and it is rather easily obtainable when you're the crown prince.

Joffrey clearly reacts to Tyrion's mention of the dagger as if he knows something. That evidence is equally hard as a bag of silver. I think you've been around this board long enough to know that one person's subtle clue is another's raging red herring.

Robert was not going to take no for an answer, but Joffrey is not along for the ride because he wants Ned to be Hand. He's there because he's told to be there, and if he thinks Ned being Hand is a threat to him personally he will do what he can to subvert it, regardless of what his loving father wants.

Please, Ned would most definitely return if Bran died, especially if it was clear he was murdered. Robert would too. They're only eight days out on a three-month journey, which they could cover in half that time on horseback. Then they would investigate the murder for a period of time, but eventually they will both head to KL again. Joffrey wouldn't expect this, of course, because he thinks the death of a Stark child would terrify Ned to the point of ever getting involved in southron politics again. But he's a fool and doesn't know what he's doing.

Of course they would send a raven. Honestly, you think they wouldn't send word immediately to Lord Eddard Stark that his son and second heir to Winterfell has just died, murdered no less by a grubby commoner? Of all the objections you can put up to this idea, this is by far the weakest.

How so? Ned only becomes a threat after he learns the truth and attempts to disinherit him. Before that, Ned is no greater threat to Joff than any other Hand.

He was not planning to kill Bran specifically, just have Joffrey do something that would cause tension between wolf and lion. He planted a seed to see if it would grow into anything, and it did.

They sent Cat to KL because Bran was still alive and they did not want to tip the Lannisters off that they were on to them. If Bran had died, they would make a public announcement to all the bannermen in the north, and probably the entire realm, that the second heir to Winterfell is dead, although they might not reveal the actual cause of death. Then they would have gotten word as quickly as possible to Lord Stark -- again, they are only four days or so for a rider -- with a message for his eyes only as to the manner of Bran's death.

Kids sneak off, sure, but the two most important kids in the realm is an entirely different matter. And there is no indication that they did any sneaking but instead simply rode off in full view of the camp. And no repercussions for the Hound for letting this happen. Curious.

Nothing contradictory about it. Joffrey has an ill-conceived goal and he concocts an ill-conceived plan to achieve it. Small wonder it all went south.

Joffrey has no way of getting to the Starks in the Hand's Tower. He doesn't know about the secret passages, and they are too small for him or any catspaw to use them. And by now, he probably knows Ned is not the sort of person who would up and leave but would instead remain to find his daughter's killer.

You seem to think that Littlefinger is trying to prevent Ned from becoming Hand as well, and I've said over and over again that is not his intent. That is just the lie he tells Joffrey to get him to act. Littlefinger's only desire is to amp up the tension between the houses. Whether that requires the death or a Stark, or just the attempt, or some other event is entirely irrelevant to Littlefinger.

There was no premeditated Bran Assassination Plot. All LF did was goad Joffrey into taking some kind of action, anything, that pits wolf vs. lion. It is perfectly in keeping with Littlefinger's penchant for planting seeds to see if they will ripen.

I never said clean hands were evidence. But he does like to keep his hands clean with this kind of stuff, which is why he prefers to orchestrate his schemes from great distances. If we didn't have the POVs to guide us, there is very little, actually zero, evidence to connect him to the Purple Wedding. There are direct connections and obvious motivations for him to want a Lannister to foment a tragedy for the Starks in Winterfell as well.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

47 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Hardly. It's a bag of silver. There is plenty of silver in the 7K, and it is rather easily obtainable when you're the crown prince.

Ok maybe we need to cover the difference between evidence and speculation...

A bag of silver was found in the stables where the assassin hid - evidence

Mance said he brought a bag of silver with him to Winterfell - testimony (and thus evidence)

Princes can get bags of silver easily due to the abundance of silver in the seven kingdoms- speculation 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but that’s not evidence towards making a case... this is the point... there is no actual evidence pointing toward Jof 

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Joffrey clearly reacts to Tyrion's mention of the dagger as if he knows something.

No, he is surprised Tyrion is being nice...

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That evidence is equally hard as a bag of silver.

No, a “sharp look” isn’t evidence this is the whole point...

Actually, it’s just a sharp look, which Tyrion takes to support his already formed opinion, it’s even less telling since Tyrion is intentionally trying to bait Jof.

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I think you've been around this board long enough to know that one person's subtle clue is another's raging red herring.

That’s cool, and again, I can’t rule the suspicion out... but it’s not evidence.

You might see it as a tell, or find it suspicious, but that doesn’t make it evidence, and it’s certainly not compareable to hard evidence like a bag of silver found in the assasins hiding spot.

Its an unexplained look, seen through the eyes of an unreliable narrator who is actively misremembering his interaction with Jof in Winterfell and has already made up his mind that Jof is guilty.

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Robert was not going to take no for an answer, but Joffrey is not along for the ride because he wants Ned to be Hand. He's there because he's told to be there, and if he thinks Ned being Hand is a threat to him personally he will do what he can to subvert it, regardless of what his loving father wants.

The point I was making you still seem to miss, there is no reason to think Jof would believe he could stop Ned from being Hand.

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Please, Ned would most definitely return if Bran died, especially if it was clear he was murdered. Robert would too. They're only eight days out on a three-month journey, which they could cover in half that time on horseback. Then they would investigate the murder for a period of time, but eventually they will both head to KL again. Joffrey wouldn't expect this, of course, because he thinks the death of a Stark child would terrify Ned to the point of ever getting involved in southron politics again. But he's a fool and doesn't know what he's doing.

I don’t think this... they left when Bran was in a coma and likely to die... 

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Of course they would send a raven.

They didn’t send one, this is just a fact, you can speculate all you want but it makes no difference and I’m over the hypotheticals. 

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Honestly, you think they wouldn't send word immediately to Lord Eddard Stark that his son and second heir to Winterfell has just died, murdered no less by a grubby commoner? Of all the objections you can put up to this idea, this is by far the weakest.

Cat decided it was important enough to take a message herself and not trust it to a raven, I see no reason this opinion would be changed if Bran had died... nor do you supply any reason or evidence to support your imagination.

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How so? Ned only becomes a threat after he learns the truth and attempts to disinherit him. Before that, Ned is no greater threat to Joff than any other Hand.

So why do you think Jof was conspiring to get him to not be hand... this is ridiculous

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He was not planning to kill Bran specifically, just have Joffrey do something that would cause tension between wolf and lion. He planted a seed to see if it would grow into anything, and it did.

They sent Cat to KL because Bran was still alive and they did not want to tip the Lannisters off that they were on to them. If Bran had died, they would make a public announcement to all the bannermen in the north, and probably the entire realm, that the second heir to Winterfell is dead, although they might not reveal the actual cause of death. Then they would have gotten word as quickly as possible to Lord Stark -- again, they are only four days or so for a rider -- with a message for his eyes only as to the manner of Bran's death.

You need to start supplying evidence because it sounds like you are just making things up and stating them as fact.

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Kids sneak off, sure, but the two most important kids in the realm is an entirely different matter. And there is no indication that they did any sneaking but instead simply rode off in full view of the camp. And no repercussions for the Hound for letting this happen. Curious.

Nothing contradictory about it. Joffrey has an ill-conceived goal and he concocts an ill-conceived plan to achieve it. Small wonder it all went south.

Joffrey has no way of getting to the Starks in the Hand's Tower. He doesn't know about the secret passages, and they are too small for him or any catspaw to use them. And by now, he probably knows Ned is not the sort of person who would up and leave but would instead remain to find his daughter's killer.

I think I’ve made my thoughts on these clear, unless you have anything more to add we can move on...

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You seem to think that Littlefinger is trying to prevent Ned from becoming Hand as well, and I've said over and over again that is not his intent. That is just the lie he tells Joffrey to get him to act. Littlefinger's only desire is to amp up the tension between the houses. Whether that requires the death or a Stark, or just the attempt, or some other event is entirely irrelevant to Littlefinger.

I don’t think Littlefinger was involved, that’s why he was surprised to see he dagger when he meets Cat.

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There was no premeditated Bran Assassination Plot. All LF did was goad Joffrey into taking some kind of action, anything, that pits wolf vs. lion. It is perfectly in keeping with Littlefinger's penchant for planting seeds to see if they will ripen.

I don’t think there is any evidence for this.

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I never said clean hands were evidence. But he does like to keep his hands clean with this kind of stuff, which is why he prefers to orchestrate his schemes from great distances. If we didn't have the POVs to guide us, there is very little, actually zero, evidence to connect him to the Purple Wedding. There are direct connections and obvious motivations for him to want a Lannister to foment a tragedy for the Starks in Winterfell as well.

Bullshit, Dontos, the queen of thorns, the neckless, the ship LF was on, the witnesses... you aren’t being intellectually honest 

[Kandrax]

5 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Cersei also seems to conflate her own comments about mercy with a drunk Robert we never saw on page.

I remember reading one topic which claimed it was she who told Joffrey that king must act boldly not Robert.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Ok maybe we need to cover the difference between evidence and speculation...

A bag of silver was found in the stables where the assassin hid - evidence

Mance said he brought a bag of silver with him to Winterfell - testimony (and thus evidence)

Princes can get bags of silver easily due to the abundance of silver in the seven kingdoms- speculation 

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but that’s not evidence towards making a case... this is the point... there is no actual evidence pointing toward Jof 

No, he is surprised Tyrion is being nice...

No, a “sharp look” isn’t evidence this is the whole point...

Actually, it’s just a sharp look, which Tyrion takes to support his already formed opinion, it’s even less telling since Tyrion is intentionally trying to bait Jof.

That’s cool, and again, I can’t rule the suspicion out... but it’s not evidence.

You might see it as a tell, or find it suspicious, but that doesn’t make it evidence, and it’s certainly not compareable to hard evidence like a bag of silver found in the assasins hiding spot.

Its an unexplained look, seen through the eyes of an unreliable narrator who is actively misremembering his interaction with Jof in Winterfell and has already made up his mind that Jof is guilty.

The point I was making you still seem to miss, there is no reason to think Jof would believe he could stop Ned from being Hand.

I don’t think this... they left when Bran was in a coma and likely to die... 

They didn’t send one, this is just a fact, you can speculate all you want but it makes no difference and I’m over the hypotheticals. 

Cat decided it was important enough to take a message herself and not trust it to a raven, I see no reason this opinion would be changed if Bran had died... nor do you supply any reason or evidence to support your imagination.

So why do you think Jof was conspiring to get him to not be hand... this is ridiculous

You need to start supplying evidence because it sounds like you are just making things up and stating them as fact.

I think I’ve made my thoughts on these clear, unless you have anything more to add we can move on...

I don’t think Littlefinger was involved, that’s why he was surprised to see he dagger when he meets Cat.

I don’t think there is any evidence for this.

Bullshit, Dontos, the queen of thorns, the neckless, the ship LF was on, the witnesses... you aren’t being intellectually honest 

It's really not that complicated. Littlefinger tells a lie to Joff in order to get him to act in some way that serve's LF's purpose of ratcheting up the tension between houses. He doesn't need to know or plan out exactly what Joffrey is going to do or when, and he might not do anything at all -- no harm, no foul. It's the exact same thing he did with Catelyn and the dagger, and the letter from Lysa. He has no idea that she is going to bump into Tyrion on the kingsroad, kidnap him and kick of a continental war. Like he tells Sansa: he plants the seeds and sees if they ripen.

So all this debate over whether Ned would or would not return to Winterfell or whether he would or would not hear of Bran's death is beside the point. Rightly or wrongly, Joffrey thinks this is what needs to be done. Heck, for all we know he was expecting the CP to strike within hours after their leaving, not days.

Your "evidence" with the silver is trumped by the logical inconsistencies of your theory: why would Mance choose a dirty, grubby and none-too-bright commoner to do the deed rather than do it himself? The guy couldn't even overpower a half-starved, grieving woman.

Why would he think this particular non-descript, unadorned dagger would brew suspicion of either Lannisters or Baratheons? How would he know it once belonged to Robert or Tyrion or anybody? Is the entire royal party still buzzing about this minor bet at a tourney six months ago?

How does he acquire the dagger? Does Robert leave valuable weapons and armor just lying around?

And does Mance honestly think that this act alone, which is unlikely to lead to anything but lingering suspicion between two houses, will cause them to remain divided when half a million wildlings come spilling over the wall? He's a smart guy; he knows how a threat from a common enemy unites people -- it's how he united the wildlings.

So sorry friend, but it's weak.

PS: all of the evidence showing LF's involvement in the PW comes from Sansa's POVs. If we didn't have those, she would be gone and there would be absolutely nothing connecting him to any of it. He is hundreds of leagues away in the Vale the whole time. How could he possibly know what's happening in King's Landing?

[LiveFirstDieLater]

54 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Your "evidence" with the silver is trumped by the logical inconsistencies of your theory: why would Mance choose a dirty, grubby and none-too-bright commoner to do the deed rather than do it himself? The guy couldn't even overpower a half-starved, grieving woman.

That’s not a logical inconsistency... Mance is king of the Wildlings... it would be surprising if anyone he employed or brought to Winferfell to do the job wasn’t considered dirty and smelly by Kneelers, not to mention a week spent in a stable.

And even if you thought that was some clever oversight on my part (it wasn’t) it still doesn’t change that you need to build theories on evidence.

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Why would he think this particular non-descript, unadorned dagger would brew suspicion of either Lannisters or Baratheons?

It is not non-descript... it is Valyrian Steel with a dragonbone hilt... clearly both unique and valuable.

Its comments like that which make you hard to take seriously.

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How would he know it once belonged to Robert or Tyrion or anybody?

Because it was in the King’s Mobile Armory, aka baggage train? 

Are you kidding?

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Is the entire royal party still buzzing about this minor bet at a tourney six months ago?

Again you sound silly... who else’s would it be? 

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How does he acquire the dagger?

He managed to sneak across the Wall, into the King’s party, into Winterfell, and into the Great hall during a feast attended by the First Ranger of the Nights Watch... I’m ok with the idea he stole the dagger.

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Does Robert leave valuable weapons and armor just lying around?

Apperantly...

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And does Mance honestly think that this act alone, which is unlikely to lead to anything but lingering suspicion between two houses, will cause them to remain divided when half a million wildlings come spilling over the wall?

Actually, it causes the abductiin of Tyrion Lannister by Cat and the start of the War of Five Kings, leading to Winterfell calling it’s banners and marching south, then the sack of Winterfell itself.

So you can debate who did it or make silly questions about what characters expected, but it was undoubtably beneficial to Mance’s cause, and probably benefited him directly more than it did anyone else.

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He's a smart guy; he knows how a threat from a common enemy unites people -- it's how he united the wildlings.

You still fight fewer enemies if they unite after killing each other for a while... or are delayed in uniting... in fact it’s rarely bad to have enemies fighting amongst each other... you will notice he is actively causing just that to happen in disguise in Winterfell as Abel.

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So sorry friend, but it's weak.

Maybe, but it’s a hell of a lot better than a guy who wasn’t there, and hadn’t even been mentioned in the story yet...

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PS: all of the evidence showing LF's involvement in the PW comes from Sansa's POVs. If we didn't have those, she would be gone and there would be absolutely nothing connecting him to any of it. He is hundreds of leagues away in the Vale the whole time. How could he possibly know what's happening in King's Landing?

What are you talking about?I have to be honest, you sound really silly...

You are comparing, the court he’s lived in for years, has tons of agents, owns businesses, sat the small council, and is a seaport... to Winterfell, a place he has never been.

Not only that, but we do have the Sansa chapters... so again, I don’t know what point you are trying to make...

Honestly, I’ve kinda lost interest since I’m not convinced anymore that you have a working understanding of the series or the difference between evidence and lack there of.

[John Suburbs]

29 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

That’s not a logical inconsistency... Mance is king of the Wildlings... it would be surprising if anyone he employed or brought to Winferfell to do the job wasn’t considered dirty and smelly by Kneelers, not to mention a week spent in a stable.

And even if you thought that was some clever oversight on my part (it wasn’t) it still doesn’t change that you need to build theories on evidence.

It is not non-descript... it is Valyrian Steel with a dragonbone hilt... clearly both unique and valuable.

Its comments like that which make you hard to take seriously.

Because it was in the King’s Mobile Armory, aka baggage train? 

Are you kidding?

Again you sound silly... who else’s would it be? 

He managed to sneak across the Wall, into the King’s party, into Winterfell, and into the Great hall during a feast attended by the First Ranger of the Nights Watch... I’m ok with the idea he stole the dagger.

Apperantly...

Actually, it causes the abductiin of Tyrion Lannister by Cat and the start of the War of Five Kings, leading to Winterfell calling it’s banners and marching south, then the sack of Winterfell itself.

So you can debate who did it or make silly questions about what characters expected, but it was undoubtably beneficial to Mance’s cause, and probably benefited him directly more than it did anyone else.

You still fight fewer enemies if they unite after killing each other for a while... or are delayed in uniting... in fact it’s rarely bad to have enemies fighting amongst each other... you will notice he is actively causing just that to happen in disguise in Winterfell as Abel.

Maybe, but it’s a hell of a lot better than a guy who wasn’t there, and hadn’t even been mentioned in the story yet...

What are you talking about?I have to be honest, you sound really silly...

You are comparing, the court he’s lived in for years, has tons of agents, owns businesses, sat the small council, and is a seaport... to Winterfell, a place he has never been.

Not only that, but we do have the Sansa chapters... so again, I don’t know what point you are trying to make...

Honestly, I’ve kinda lost interest since I’m not convinced anymore that you have a working understanding of the series or the difference between evidence and lack there of.

I stated right up front that I have no evidence, just speculation. But the key difference between us is that I propose my idea as a possibility whereas you seem to hold yours as unimpeachable truth all based on a common bag of silver. It's weak and it's highly speculative.

The attempt on Bran alone did not ignite the war. That would not have happened without Littlefinger's lie and Cat's chance meeting with Tyrion on the road. Winterfell would still be standing if Robb hadn't sent Theon to Balon. Robb would still be alive if he hadn't married Jeyne... There was an entire series of events that led us to where we are, so your argument is specious. Simply murdering Bran in bed and leaving it at that would in no way have produced the same results, especially if all they have is a knife that was obviously left behind to falsely implicate someone for the crime.

Theories can most certainly be built on speculation. The evidence will come later, or not. RLJ is a perfect example.

It is a non-descript dagger and is only obviously VS when you examine it. The more logical choice would be a dagger with a stag or a lion on the handle -- one that clearly belonged to a stag or a lion.

The point about Sansa's POVs is that just because we lack a bird's eye view of LF lying to Joffrey or him discussing it with Lysa (aka, "evidence") does not mean we should reject the possibility that it could have happened exactly this way. The only evidence of LF's involvement in the PW comes from Sansa's POVs, so if Martin had decided to remove her as a POV, then she would have simply vanished after the PW and the reader would have zero evidence on which to assume that LF was involved. I understand your point about lack of evidence is not evidence, but neither is it disproval. There was no evidence that LF was involved in the Arryn murder either, until we got the POV confirming it.

So just sit tight and chill, man. It will all come out OK in the end.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I stated right up front that I have no evidence, just speculation. But the key difference between us is that I propose my idea as a possibility whereas you seem to hold yours as unimpeachable truth all based on a common bag of silver. It's weak and it's highly speculative.

No I speculate wildly too, not stating those speculations as fact when I can help it... but I do actively try to root my arguements in the text.

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The attempt on Bran alone did not ignite the war. That would not have happened without Littlefinger's lie and Cat's chance meeting with Tyrion on the road. Winterfell would still be standing if Robb hadn't sent Theon to Balon. Robb would still be alive if he hadn't married Jeyne... There was an entire series of events that led us to where we are, so your argument is specious. Simply murdering Bran in bed and leaving it at that would in no way have produced the same results, especially if all they have is a knife that was obviously left behind to falsely implicate someone for the crime.

Hypotheticals again...

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Theories can most certainly be built on speculation. The evidence will come later, or not. RLJ is a perfect example.

No his is based on both textual clues and hard evidence. Like Jon himself. I still think you are missing the core concept here.

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It is a non-descript dagger and is only obviously VS when you examine it. The more logical choice would be a dagger with a stag or a lion on the handle -- one that clearly belonged to a stag or a lion.

The dagger is described many times, it is unique, literally not nondescript.

Mance has reason to steal a Valyrian Steel dagger before Bran even fell... Others. Another reason it makes more sense than Jof.

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The point about Sansa's POVs is that just because we lack a bird's eye view of LF lying to Joffrey or him discussing it with Lysa (aka, "evidence") does not mean we should reject the possibility that it could have happened exactly this way. The only evidence of LF's involvement in the PW comes from Sansa's POVs, so if Martin had decided to remove her as a POV, then she would have simply vanished after the PW and the reader would have zero evidence on which to assume that LF was involved. I understand your point about lack of evidence is not evidence, but neither is it disproval. There was no evidence that LF was involved in the Arryn murder either, until we got the POV confirming it.

Again, these chapters are in the book, the evidence is there, and that’s the point. And there is evidence of Littlefingers involvement in both the purple wedding and Jon Arryns murder... including but not limited to the contradictory stories about Sweetrobins intended destination, Lysa’s confession, the poison used, Hoster Tullies death bed ramblings, Ser Dontos, the queen of thorns, the neckless, the ship, the crossbowmen, etc. etc.

The text is what it is, I’m here to discuss it. I love speculation, but you need to use the text as a basis, even if it’s just literary clues.

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So just sit tight and chill, man. It will all come out OK in the end.

I’m good, it’s nothing personal, I hope you didn’t take offense, I just don’t think you are being logical nor that what you are suggesting stems from the text.

It’s been fun though, hope you have a nice weekend!