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Val has Dragon blood (theory)

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is completely unlikely since the entire point of the 'let's burn a child' is that Stannis does it. He considered it back with Edric Storm, his nephew, and he will eventually sign off on the burning of his only child. It might even be his idea, not so much Melisandre.

Well I tend to agree that its value to the telling of the story is significantly more if it is Stannis. I was just pointing out possibilities. But if Mel does burn Shireen then we can get back to the other point I made in a few posts, that the Pink Letter could be interpreted as a signal. If it is a Bolton signal for prearranged actions (the assassination of Jon, wildling provocation) that clearly has nothing to do with Stannis. But if the Pink Letter is from Stannis then it could very easily be the signal arranged in advance with Mel that it is time to burn Shireen because things are desperate.

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And nobody is going to want to bring back Jon Snow of all people, because nobody thinks he is all that significant to anything. Even a disfigured princess is worth infinitely more than Jon.

That wasn't my point, I think you misunderstood me. The magic doesn't happen because anyone was TRYING to bring back Jon! It happens because they try to sacrifice Shireen on Jon's funeral pyre. After all, Jon may be dead but Mel believes he has King's blood, so the more of that in the fire the better. For Mel the goal would be to help Stannis's cause.

Edited by Hippocras

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree with your second paragraph, but for Mel, perhaps, once you start burning kingsblood it may be hard to stop.

As for your first paragraph, it wouldn't suprise me that Mel may be able to convince Selyse to burn her daughter, for the "greater good".  After all Selyse has proven more susceptible to Melisandre's religion than even Stannis.  And Mel is probably going to be chomping at the bit for an excuse to sacrifice Shireen, since the girl has the same "Kingsblood" as her cousin Edric.  Targaryen - Baratheon - and perhaps Gardner.

That feels all very weird. I don't even see why Melisandre would want to burn people right now. She isn't a mad pyromaniac, nor somebody who always wants to sacrifice people. She will have rather crucial problems to deal with revolving around her own safety and that of Selyse and Shireen. If Stannis were dead, Marsh and/or the wildlings might want to take them prisoner or something along those lines.

Mel wanted to sacrifice Edric to wake dragons from stone. Shireen will burn for something of equal importance, possibly to give Stannis his true Lightbringer sword. So far he has just a fake and there might come a time when he needs the real deal. It might also be something different.

But the idea anyone in camp Stannis could kill Shireen while they believe him dead really makes no sense.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That feels all very weird. I don't even see why Melisandre would want to burn people right now. She isn't a mad pyromaniac, nor somebody who always wants to sacrifice people. She will have rather crucial problems to deal with revolving around her own safety and that of Selyse and Shireen. If Stannis were dead, Marsh and/or the wildlings might want to take them prisoner or something along those lines.

Mel wanted to sacrifice Edric to wake dragons from stone. Shireen will burn for something of equal importance, possibly to give Stannis his true Lightbringer sword. So far he has just a fake and there might come a time when he needs the real deal. It might also be something different.

But the idea anyone in camp Stannis could kill Shireen while they believe him dead really makes no sense.

If I'm just guessing what will happen I bet Mel still wants to wake dragons from stone.

That is the prophesy after all.

So she'll probably try to sacrifice Monster, but either someone will talk about the baby swap or Mance will save the baby under the assumption that it is his child (this becomes fantastically ironic if Craster was Aemon's son).

Then Stannis's slippery slope can continue. After all, if he is willing to sacrifice one life to save a kingdom, and willing to sacrifice another's child, then shouldn't he be willing to sacrifice his own child? (note: this is a road to hell paved with good intentions situation)

And it's very hard for me to overlook dragon dreams... especially since she is of the blood, which seems to be the whole point.

Quote

"I had bad dreams," Shireen told him. "About the dragons. They were coming to eat me."

A Clash of Kings - Prologue

Although, as we see in other places, the dragons can be real or metaphorical... and Jon may need waking.

Edited by Mourning Star

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36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That feels all very weird. I don't even see why Melisandre would want to burn people right now. She isn't a mad pyromaniac, nor somebody who always wants to sacrifice people. She will have rather crucial problems to deal with revolving around her own safety and that of Selyse and Shireen. If Stannis were dead, Marsh and/or the wildlings might want to take them prisoner or something along those lines.

Mel wanted to sacrifice Edric to wake dragons from stone. Shireen will burn for something of equal importance, possibly to give Stannis his true Lightbringer sword. So far he has just a fake and there might come a time when he needs the real deal. It might also be something different.

But the idea anyone in camp Stannis could kill Shireen while they believe him dead really makes no sense.

If there are sacrifices, then I assume it would be in the context of a resurrection.  Either Jon's or Stannis', or perhaps both.  (And Melisandre's interest may be transferring from Stannis to Jon.)  It wouldn't do to have R'hllor's agent killed before the final showdown with the Great Other. 

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2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Well I tend to agree that its value to the telling of the story is significantly more if it is Stannis. I was just pointing out possibilities. But if Mel does burn Shireen then we can get back to the other point I made in a few posts, that the Pink Letter could be interpreted as a signal. If it is a Bolton signal for prearranged actions (the assassination of Jon, wildling provocation) that clearly has nothing to do with Stannis. But if the Pink Letter is from Stannis then it could very easily be the signal arranged in advance with Mel that it is time to burn Shireen because things are desperate.

That is very strange, considering Selyse/Shireen weren't at CB when Stannis left and he had no way of knowing Selyse would tire of the place and press on to CB ... nor that she would still be there at the time the letter arrived. If the Nightfort was finished for habitation by then she would have gone there.

If Stannis wanted to send Mel 'a signal' he would either write her a letter or he would write Jon a letter as Stannis telling him to also show said letter to Mel.

The idea that Jon would necessarily show a letter to Mel which pretended to be written by Ramsay is very far-fetched. I mean, Stannis is straightforward, no-nonsense guy. He would never to anything as intricately silly as this...

There is also no reason for Stannis to talk about Shireen as his heir in Theon 1 and then expect he has a plan to burn her when things are 'desperate'. Such a thing would be done for a concrete reason, for the expectation that such a sacrifice would result in a tangible magical reward. It's not something that's done because things are 'desperate'.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

That wasn't my point, I think you misunderstood me. The magic doesn't happen because anyone was TRYING to bring back Jon! It happens because they try to sacrifice Shireen on Jon's funeral pyre. After all, Jon may be dead but Mel believes he has King's blood, so the more of that in the fire the better. For Mel the goal would be to help Stannis's cause.

Mel would destroy Stannis' cause if she burned his daughter while he is also believed to be dead.

The idea that Melisandre would ever burn somebody - or sacrifice them in another manner - to work a spell/magic that is supposed to work hundreds of leagues away is also something completely untangible at this point. Magic doesn't seem to work that way. You cannot work a spell at one place and have it take effect half a world away.

31 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

If I'm just guessing what will happen I bet Mel still wants to wake dragons from stone.

That is the prophesy after all.

So she'll probably try to sacrifice Monster, but either someone will talk about the baby swap or Mance will save the baby under the assumption that it is his child (this becomes fantastically ironic if Craster was Aemon's son).

Then Stannis's slippery slope can continue. After all, if he is willing to sacrifice one life to save a kingdom, and willing to sacrifice another's child, then shouldn't he be willing to sacrifice his own child? (note: this is a road to hell paved with good intentions situation)

And it's very hard for me to overlook dragon dreams... especially since she is of the blood, which seems to be the whole point.

Although, as we see in other places, the dragons can be real or metaphorical... and Jon may need waking.

There are no dragons at the Wall anyone could try to wake from stone, so there would be no need for such a sacrifice. Nor are there any such plans in Mel's POV. She works with Stannis and Mance, she wouldn't sacrifice their children without the consent of their fathers.

9 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If there are sacrifices, then I assume it would be in the context of a resurrection.  Either Jon's or Stannis', or perhaps both.  (And Melisandre's interest may be transferring from Stannis to Jon.)  It wouldn't do to have R'hllor's agent killed before the final showdown with the Great Other. 

Mel believes Stannis is Azor Ahai. No indication this has changed or will change in the foreseeable future. Jon's death should put to rest even the possibility he might be Azor Ahai. Azor Ahai doesn't die.

Which is also the reason why Mel won't see a need to resurrect Stannis. A letter claiming he is dead must be false because he is Azor Ahai and won't die before he has fulfilled his destiny.

Jon's return will be an accident pretty much like Beric's - with the difference that they will have to get him out of Ghost and back into his resurrected body.

That said - after that happens Mel might be definitely even more interested in Jon. But it wouldn't make him into Azor Ahai because that guy is Stannis in her mind - and Jon doesn't have the dragon blood that's necessary for the job, no connection to Dragonstone, etc.

As long as the true parentage of Jon remains a secret nobody is even going to consider him a candidate for that particular role ... although coming back from the dead is going to make him as special as Beric or Catelyn.

If things for Mel changed from Stannis to Jon while Stannis were still alive, we would likely never get to the Shireen sacrifice because that only makes sense in the Azor Ahai context. The best guess is that the Shireen sacrifice failing/backfiring on Stannis is going to be what destroys him, his cause, and any illusion that he might be the savior. And that, I think, will happen at a later point in the story, when the Wall is already about to fall.

If Jon were to be revealed or viewed as Azor Ahai/the promised prince, etc. at a point in time when the Others haven't breached the Wall yet they might still be able to prevent that. They might even defeat them before they become a real danger to the Seven Kingdoms. But that's not going to happen.

In the end, I expect that it is going to be Daenerys and Jon together who figure out what the promised prince stuff is supposed to mean. That's their story, and if Jon has a special destiny they will decide what that is, not other people.

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17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

 It wouldn't do to have R'hllor's agent killed before the final showdown with the Great Other. 

Gonna go ahead and just say that I don't buy the good vs evil, light vs dark, hot vs cold, man vs woman dualistic war nonsense for a minute. My heart is full of doubts.

Seems much more likely to be unresolved daddy issues for Mel if you ask me!

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no dragons at the Wall anyone could try to wake from stone, so there would be no need for such a sacrifice. Nor are there any such plans in Mel's POV. She works with Stannis and Mance, she wouldn't sacrifice their children without the consent of their fathers.

I completely disagree about her not trying to wake a dragon from stone in the North!

I'm not saying she will be literally successful... but I think it is almost certain she will try.

Frankly, she is a bane for northern support as it is, burning Weirwoods won't make her friends among the First Men any more than burning the seven does for their followers, probably more so.

Also, she was willing to sacrifice Edric, and willing to kill his father, so I have to be honest I see no reason to expect her to be overly concerned about consent.

Quote

Melisandre put her hand on the king's arm. "The Lord of Light cherishes the innocent. There is no sacrifice more precious. From his king's blood and his untainted fire, a dragon shall be born."
Stannis did not pull away from Melisandre's touch as he had from his queen's. The red woman was all Selyse was not; young, full-bodied, and strangely beautiful, with her heart-shaped face, coppery hair, and unearthly red eyes. "It would be a wondrous thing to see stone come to life," he admitted, grudging.

A Storm of Swords - Davos V

 

Edited by Mourning Star

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Melisandre would ever burn somebody - or sacrifice them in another manner - to work a spell/magic that is supposed to work hundreds of leagues away is also something completely untangible at this point. Magic doesn't seem to work that way. You cannot work a spell at one place and have it take effect half a world away.

She has used it before to get favourable winds to get all the way to the Wall. And Euron has done this too. That means it can work over quite some distance.

Edited by Hippocras

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4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I completely disagree about her not trying to wake a dragon from stone in the North!

Mel wanted to wake literal dragons from literal stone on Dragonstone. Not metaphorical dragons. And she won't burn people for metaphorical dragons in the North.

4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Frankly, she is a bane for northern support as it is, burning Weirwoods won't make her friends among the First Men any more than burning the seven does for their followers, probably more so.

She already has a small following of converts at the Wall. And like with Thoros in the Riverlands this following is likely to grow. Melisandre has real power, and people already know that. When winter shows teach they will do everything she says. She is literally fiery and warm, after all.

4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Also, she was willing to sacrifice Edric, and willing to kill his father, so I have to be honest I see no reason to expect her to be overly concerned about consent.

When did Mel try to kill Robert?

She doesn't care about the consent of the folks she kills, of course, but as her chapter shows she isn't keen on killing people, especially children. She even protected Davos' son Daven out of kindness.

While working on behalf of Stannis and with Mance she wouldn't kill their children without their consent. Especially not while she has others she could kill first if she felt she had to sacrifice somebody - for which, at this point, there is really no indication. As I said - there is Gerrick Kingsblood and his three daughters. They should suffice for the time being.

6 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

She has used it before to get favourable winds to get to the Wall. And Euron has done this too.

Yes, but that was a concrete thing as well as an execution. It isn't the same as burning the children of your boss and a guy you work with.

And the wind Mel summoned started at/came to the waters around Dragonstone. It didn't affect things far away.

If there is going to be a sacrifice anywhere it will be for something tangible at that place - like Euron does right now with his Aeron and the others, Mirri Maz Duur did with Drogo, etc. We won't get somebody working a spell beyond the Wall and then reading about a dragon hatching in Dorne or something along those lines.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/19/2021 at 7:02 PM, Lord Varys said:

And Mel certainly knows a lot of stuff. She is just wrong on a couple of things. But she still knows stuff ... and has the means to figure even more things out.

She isn't Tyrion "I Drink and I Know Things" Lannister. 

 

On 4/20/2021 at 8:36 AM, Lord Varys said:

Also, if Mel wanted to burn folks with 'king's blood' while Stannis is away she would first turn to Gerrick Kingsblood, his three daughters, Mance's son (who she assumes is his son and not Gilly's), Axell Florent, even Selyse (who are descendants of the Gardener kings of old) before she would turn to Stannis' only child.

 

So if I had a kid, and declared myself king, my kid would have kingsblood? Can't Mel just mass produce kingsblood people then?

 

 

Edited by Jaenara Belarys

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