Who has the authority to declare that oaths are null?

[divica]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not the plan. The plan is very much to marry Sansa Stark not Alayne Stone to Harrold Hardyng. That's what's Littlefinger talks about in AFfC.

Do you have confirmation that he plans to tell harry the truth? Because he can always tell him futrther down the line or wait until cersei's men finally kill tyrion. And we have no idea WHEN he plans to marry sansa. It can be months/years away... It all depends on tyrion's fate and when the lannisters will lose their power. It isn't something that will happen anytime soon.

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I agree that there won't be an invasion ... but so what? Once the Northmen know Sansa Stark is alive and commands the allegiance of the Vale they will think twice before they install another pretender at Winterfell. Because 30,000 Vale men are going to make short work out of any such pretender in the next spring.

Even more so considering the Northmen will likely be dependent on food imports from the Vale during the winter in light of the bad last harvest ... meaning they may be forced to accept Sansa as their ruler or starve to death.

The northners won't acept sansa's husband as their lord. And do you know nothing about westerosi history? How many times has moat catlin defended the north? And any stark would need to defend against bigger armies from the IT. 30k from the vale isn't a big threat when the IT should send more than that to depose the stark king.

This line of thought just doesn't work.

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Go back and reread ASoS. Jojen and Meera are surprised that Bran doesn't know the story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree. This indicates that Howland actually told his children a lot of stuff Ned didn't tell his children ... possibly including the true parentage of Jon Snow.

There is no indication of a vow of secrecy or anything else you might imagine.

If you believe this you are seriously biased and aren't thinking straight. How can you campare a story known by a lot of people to ned's biggest secret?

It is more than obivous that howland is vowed to secrecy or know nothing about jon's parentage (he was injured at the time after all). This isn't even something that it is possible to argument against...

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The only thing the clansmen know something about is that Brandon Stark is still alive, not about Robb's will. How should they even know about that?

Because maege or robet traveled there and talked with them? And they could be one of the most logical places for them to go if you think about it. After all jon also thought that the clans were loyal and had nothing better to do than help ned's little sister. If they were seeking for allies then it makes sense for them to go to the clans. Unfortunately their fighting men left with stannis...

And the clansmen have no idea if bran is still alive. Just that he was. You keep making that mistake...

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Robb didn't ask his mother or his lords for their opinion. He told them to witness his will, not to advise him. Cat tried, but Robb just shut her down.

Read the story. He talks with cat about naming jon as his heir and cat doesn t disagree with him when he says that the NW must release jon if he sends them men. And she never questions if other people will accept it. That just isn't an issue.

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That interview talks about all the various orders - NW, maesters, Kingsguard, Faith, etc. There might be precedents were maesters and septons, etc. got out of their vows ... doesn't mean there are NW men who got out of their vows.

If we had those, it is kind of silly to assume that, say, Aerys I would allow Bittersteel to take the black to neutralize him (he could get out of his vows and become a nuisance again). Folks could have risen against Aegon V in the name of the rightful king, Aemon I, because him taking the black didn't really undo his claim to the throne because there were precedents. And so on and so forth. Hell, Renly and Stannis would have likely pushed Robert to murder Aemon at the Wall if he could get out of his vows.

There isn't really anything to that. If George came up now with precedents for people getting out of the NW he would undermine everything he told us about that institution so far.

How can you say that without knowing the precedents? And why would robb and cat think it was possible it was so outlandish? Not even robb's lords questioned it. I am sorry but you aren't reading the story.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Ah, no?! Jon would be Robb's heir if he were legitimized and folks thought that this legitimization means he is ahead of Bran and Rickon in the succession (but that's not a given) ... but more importantly: Jon Snow isn't Ned's son nor Robb's half-brother. Legitimizing the son of Lyanna Stark won't make him the heir of the North.

But that is what people think he is. The only one who might know the truth is howland and he has no reason to betray ned's secrets. If he is sworn to secrecy then I have no idea what might lead him to ever tell the truth...

And as cat told robb several times you can't take away a legitimization. And we have several examples of this. 

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not known. George himself makes it clear in an SSM on succession laws that it is unclear whether legitimized bastards are treated according to birth order or whether they come behind the trueborn children.

Also - do you really think Jon is as vile as to use Robb's will to steal Bran and Rickon's birthright? Or that of Sansa and Arya? Do you think he is the villain of this story?

Yes. First, if he is legitimized it is also his birthright. Second, if enough lords want him as their leader and he thinks he is the better choice he would accept.

In adition, he can always give the dreadfort to whatever stark may still be alive.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, what? There is only a king if a king is actually proclaimed or crowned. I can write a will leaving all my stuff to you ... but while you haven't accepted that and taken possession of my stuff it still isn't yours, right? Is Jon right now calling himself 'Stark'? Does he wear a crown? Has he been proclaimed king? I don't think so.

Do you think the Mormonts would have a little girl write strange letters ... but not write a letter to Jon Snow telling him that he is their king? I don't think so.

Maybe that isn't something that can be written in a letter? And it was only worth to write to jon once he became LC and that didn't happen so long ago. Besides, why would the NW release jon if there wan't someone powerfull backing him?

As far as we know after talking with howland reed maege could have gone to bear island and galbart glover to the clans in order to get some support to put pressure on the NW to release jon (his familly seat was in control of the IB so the clans could be his better option).

And lyanna could be simply getting ahead of herself. She know that robb named a king and therefore he is her king. End of story.

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

To convince him to send troops when he starts to believe there are Others? To ensure that the North won't face dangers from two fronts - the Others could attack from the north at the same time as Aegon or Daenerys or Euron or whoever launches an invasion from the south.

Sansa could invade the North if the Vale is on her side and willing to go to war in winter, too. Those are all realistic possibilities.

And by the way - how ridiculous is a scenario where Howland Reed allows the will to get to Jon - which could lead to him becoming the King in the North - putting him into a position where he might end up fighting his Targaryen half-brother and/or aunt. That is completely ridiculous. This man would have to be another Littlefinger to allow that to happen, somebody getting off watching how families tear each other apart without even knowing it.

The problem is that in grrm books howland has no idea that aegon is alive, invading westeros or that he might become jon's enemy. 

In those books it is also quite hard for someone to be lord of the vale and the north. And it is unlikely that the IT would allow it. Unless you are sugesting that the valemen are such nice fellows that they would sacrifice their men so that sansa could become lady of winterfell without getting nothing in return and risking attacks from the IT...

Now that you are talking about it, once LF knows about aegon and danny's dragons whatever plans he has will probably change...

 

[Jaenara Belarys]

7 minutes ago, divica said:

Now that you are talking about it, once LF knows about aegon and danny's dragons whatever plans he has will probably change...

 

Once he hears about fAegon, he'll probably quietly offer Sansa in marriage to fAegon. 

[divica]

Just now, Jaenara Belarys said:

Once he hears about fAegon, he'll probably quietly offer Sansa in marriage to fAegon. 

Or some loyal bannerman so that faegon gives support to the banerman to conquer the north. And if he can convince harry the heir to marry some dornish woman he would even be greatly rewarded by giving faegon control over 2 kingdoms.

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 minute ago, divica said:

Or some loyal bannerman so that faegon gives support to the banerman to conquer the north. And if he can convince harry the heir to marry some dornish woman he would even be greatly rewarded by giving faegon control over 2 kingdoms.

Maybe do fAegon/Sansa and Harry/Arianne? We know that Harry looks nice, and we know that Arianne likes handsome men.....

[Lord Varys]

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Do you have confirmation that he plans to tell harry the truth? Because he can always tell him futrther down the line or wait until cersei's men finally kill tyrion. And we have no idea WHEN he plans to marry sansa. It can be months/years away... It all depends on tyrion's fate and when the lannisters will lose their power. It isn't something that will happen anytime soon.

Do read the chapter. The picture Littlefinger paints is one where Sansa reveals herself at the wedding feast, meaning she wouldn't be married to Harry as a Stone. When exactly they would tell Harry is another question, but he would learn it at his wedding at the latest.

There is no indication that they will wait until stupid Tyrion is gone. They won't have to. They control the Vale and can annul the marrige. Or they can just ignore it. Who cares, really?

41 minutes ago, divica said:

The northners won't acept sansa's husband as their lord. And do you know nothing about westerosi history? How many times has moat catlin defended the north? And any stark would need to defend against bigger armies from the IT. 30k from the vale isn't a big threat when the IT should send more than that to depose the stark king.

That's nonsense. Sansa would be their ruler, not her husband, whoever that is. But why shouldn't they offer an Arryn as the consort of their lady? Jon Arryn was a buddy of Ned's, no?

The idea that some Northmen wouldn't support Sansa's bid is also ridiculous ... but nobody talked about an invasion overland. That wouldn't work in winter, anyway. If they were to go then they would go by ship.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

If you believe this you are seriously biased and aren't thinking straight. How can you campare a story known by a lot of people to ned's biggest secret?

Because the source for both stories would be Howland Reed. The Reeds have no clue how 'well known' the story about Harrenhal is - they are confused about the fact that Ned never told Bran this story. And they most likely are confused about this because they thought Ned would have told them the truth about Jon. Because the entire point of the Harrenhal story is that it is a leadup to Jon's birth.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

It is more than obivous that howland is vowed to secrecy or know nothing about jon's parentage (he was injured at the time after all). This isn't even something that it is possible to argument against...

Ah, what? Howland Reed was injured? Where do you get this from?

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Because maege or robet traveled there and talked with them? And they could be one of the most logical places for them to go if you think about it. After all jon also thought that the clans were loyal and had nothing better to do than help ned's little sister. If they were seeking for allies then it makes sense for them to go to the clans. Unfortunately their fighting men left with stannis...

Ah, what? That's complete conspiracy theory whacko stuff. So far Galbart and Maege were not seen anywhere in the North. Why would they go to the clansmen? And why would the clansmen only bestir themselves when Stannis showed up and not when they were told about some will?

How does the idea work that Galbart and Maege left the Neck if Lady Dustin has gone on record stating that she watches the Neck and will take possession of Ned's bones as soon as they emerge from there?

Those are all ideas without any textual basis.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

And the clansmen have no idea if bran is still alive. Just that he was. You keep making that mistake...

Technically this is correct ... but guess what: That's also true for Rickon. Wex didn't know whether he actually went to Skagos nor whether he arrived there nor whether he wasn't killed there. Right?

Yes, Manderly had a destination for Rickon and none for Bran ... but he chose to only look for Rickon and he called him his liege lord. Meaning he betrayed Brandon Stark, his true liege lord. Manderly certainly had the means to look for both Stark boys although finding Bran would be more difficult, I get that.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Read the story. He talks with cat about naming jon as his heir and cat doesn t disagree with him when he says that the NW must release jon if he sends them men. And she never questions if other people will accept it. That just isn't an issue.

Cat is pissed at the general idea because it would be wrong to make a bastard the heir to Winterfell. It would cause all kind of problems ... and you actually seem to want this to become a reality. You want Jon steal the birthrights of his trueborn cousins.

Kings can do all kind of shit there is no precedent for.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

How can you say that without knowing the precedents? And why would robb and cat think it was possible it was so outlandish? Not even robb's lords questioned it. I am sorry but you aren't reading the story.

Robb thinks a lot of shit is possible and the fact that Cat doesn't say 'you cannot do this' doesn't mean she thought Robb would succeed. She didn't want him to try.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

But that is what people think he is. The only one who might know the truth is howland and he has no reason to betray ned's secrets. If he is sworn to secrecy then I have no idea what might lead him to ever tell the truth...

Stop pretending you know that Howland is sworn to secrecy.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

And as cat told robb several times you can't take away a legitimization. And we have several examples of this.

A legitimization decree talking about one 'Jon Snow, son of Eddard Stark' would be null and void since that person doesn't actually exist. There is only a Jon Snow, son of Lyanna Stark.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Yes. First, if he is legitimized it is also his birthright. Second, if enough lords want him as their leader and he thinks he is the better choice he would accept.

No, a birthright you get by right of birth, i.e. when you are born. When you are legitimized you only acquire a certain right from that point on, not retroactively for all the time you weren't legitimized.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

In adition, he can always give the dreadfort to whatever stark may still be alive.

LOL, what?

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Maybe that isn't something that can be written in a letter? And it was only worth to write to jon once he became LC and that didn't happen so long ago. Besides, why would the NW release jon if there wan't someone powerfull backing him?

Do I understand you right, some ten-year-old girl can write to Stannis about the rightful Stark king, but nobody can write to Jon about that? And who would even include a ten-year-old girl in such a plot in the first place? A bunch of morons?

41 minutes ago, divica said:

As far as we know after talking with howland reed maege could have gone to bear island and galbart glover to the clans in order to get some support to put pressure on the NW to release jon (his familly seat was in control of the IB so the clans could be his better option).

Oh. And where are those magical fellows throughout ADwD? Hiding in the bushes or what?

And why would anyone have to put 'pressure on the NW' when Jon is Lord Commander? And if folks were with the clansmen since before ADwD why on earth did no one actually try to help the NW to defeat Mance? Where were the clansmen who were informed by those magical people about all that.

This is just you writing an alternative narrative, not going with what's actually in the text.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is that in grrm books howland has no idea that aegon is alive, invading westeros or that he might become jon's enemy. 

Well, he trained with the Green Men, so he might know much more than you think he knows. And he has a son with prophetic dreams.

That said - so far Jon Snow hasn't been proclaimed king, and Aegon has arrived and people know about Daenerys and her dragons. So what do you think Howland Reed is going to do now? Tell Jon to become the King in the North so he can fight his half-brother and aunt and drown the Realm in blood the same way Robb Stark did?

That would make him a really great guy.

You are also aware that Bran might figure out who Jon actually is, right? He could also reveal this truth to the world, just as Wylla could, or some Daynes who might know the truth. This isn't something only Howland Reed knows.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

In those books it is also quite hard for someone to be lord of the vale and the north. And it is unlikely that the IT would allow it. Unless you are sugesting that the valemen are such nice fellows that they would sacrifice their men so that sansa could become lady of winterfell without getting nothing in return and risking attacks from the IT...

The Iron Throne doesn't figure into this at all. Sansa is a Stark and they have the manpower to install her at Winterfell. Nobody could object to that, especially if they were fighting against some bastard turncloak.

41 minutes ago, divica said:

Now that you are talking about it, once LF knows about aegon and danny's dragons whatever plans he has will probably change...

Of course, I don't think Sansa will go north. I just think that this is a real possibility. Your entire Jon thing should be undone by Rickon or Brandon or Arya. And if Jon were to never figure out that 'Arya' is Jeyne (because she left for Braavos, say, before he was resurrected) then he would actually believe Arya was still alive and would *never* usurp her place as Lady of Winterfell.

But my general point is simply that I don't see anyone in the North really wanting to continue this secession thing. They lack the manpower, reason, and common sense for that. Especially as pretenders start to vie for the Iron Throne who also fight the Lannisters.

[Jaenara Belarys]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Stop pretending you know that Howland is sworn to secrecy.

 

Cool it. But yes, @divica we don't know if Howland swore a secrecy vow. 

 

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, Manderly had a destination for Rickon and none for Bran ... but he chose to only look for Rickon and he called him his liege lord. Meaning he betrayed Brandon Stark, his true liege lord. Manderly certainly had the means to look for both Stark boys although finding Bran would be more difficult, I get that.

 

For Manderly and Bran, it's like what Lysono said about the elephants and dragons to Arianne. And it would be next to impossible for Manderly to look for Bran: Snow covers tracks, and wights will kill anybody they come across, they don't know anything about the cave, they don't know about fire.....

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, what?

It would be a nice move, since it's likely there will be no more Boltons. Can't say though. Maybe Roose has a daughter on Walda and Rickon marries the daughter later on?

 

 

[divica]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh. And where are those magical fellows throughout ADwD? Hiding in the bushes or what?

And why would anyone have to put 'pressure on the NW' when Jon is Lord Commander? And if folks were with the clansmen since before ADwD why on earth did no one actually try to help the NW to defeat Mance? Where were the clansmen who were informed by those magical people about all that.

This is just you writing an alternative narrative, not going with what's actually in the text.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ah, what? That's complete conspiracy theory whacko stuff. So far Galbart and Maege were not seen anywhere in the North. Why would they go to the clansmen? And why would the clansmen only bestir themselves when Stannis showed up and not when they were told about some will?

How does the idea work that Galbart and Maege left the Neck if Lady Dustin has gone on record stating that she watches the Neck and will take possession of Ned's bones as soon as they emerge from there?

Those are all ideas without any textual basis.

What are you talking about?

Do you know the timeline? It is obvious that galbart and maege don't know that jon is LC while they are in the neck (at the beguining of feast/dance). So if you are maege and galbart and have robb's will what can you do? Given that robb was betrayed by the freys and that roose now has the suport of the IT to be the warden of the north and that his bastard has been terrorizing the north and controls winterfell what could they do? In adition, at the start of feast the IT has hostages from several houses. So how how can they gather support to show up at the wall and make them release jon from his vows?

Choosing to go to bear island (because it is maege's home) and the clans (they are suposed to be very loyal to the starks) for support are 2 pretty obvious options. I don't even know if given the situation at the beguining of feast/dance there would be any other options that they could 100% trust because besides the IB invasion, the IT hostages and the bolton suporters robb also made some enemies like the karstarks.

And given the clan chiefs strange behaviour (jon thinks they are testing him) it makes sense that they could have learned about the will sometime after stannis visited them due to galbart glover riding there. And given that jon's last chapters happen in a very short period of time and loads of thigns are happening it also makes sense that they hadn't made their decision yet.

And please, are you comparing riders that are helped by the cragnonmen to travel in secret with some silent sisters or whoever is traveling with ned's bones that has no reason to hide?

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do read the chapter. The picture Littlefinger paints is one where Sansa reveals herself at the wedding feast, meaning she wouldn't be married to Harry as a Stone. When exactly they would tell Harry is another question, but he would learn it at his wedding at the latest.

There is no indication that they will wait until stupid Tyrion is gone. They won't have to. They control the Vale and can annul the marrige. Or they can just ignore it. Who cares, really?

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's nonsense. Sansa would be their ruler, not her husband, whoever that is. But why shouldn't they offer an Arryn as the consort of their lady? Jon Arryn was a buddy of Ned's, no?

The idea that some Northmen wouldn't support Sansa's bid is also ridiculous ... but nobody talked about an invasion overland. That wouldn't work in winter, anyway. If they were to go then they would go by ship.

So many problems. First of, are you sugesting that LF or some noble has the power to anull a marriage? That sansa will practice bigamy openly? That LF will show sansa while the Lannisters are in power? That the vale will opose the IT to put sansa in winterfell instead of delivering her to the throne? That in Asos tyrion would be the warden of the north because he was sansa's husband but in winds sansa would still be powerless but would be the warden despite being married?twice! That the vale will construct an armada capable of tranporting 30k men? (poor euron, he is destroying the redwine fleet just so that another huge fleet appears to take its place)

There are so many problems in following what you are saying that at the moment it is a waste of time to talk about it.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because the source for both stories would be Howland Reed. The Reeds have no clue how 'well known' the story about Harrenhal is - they are confused about the fact that Ned never told Bran this story. And they most likely are confused about this because they thought Ned would have told them the truth about Jon. Because the entire point of the Harrenhal story is that it is a leadup to Jon's birth.

No. That story is the lead up to the rebellion. Any relation to jon is for the reader to make.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Technically this is correct ... but guess what: That's also true for Rickon. Wex didn't know whether he actually went to Skagos nor whether he arrived there nor whether he wasn't killed there. Right?

Yes, Manderly had a destination for Rickon and none for Bran ... but he chose to only look for Rickon and he called him his liege lord. Meaning he betrayed Brandon Stark, his true liege lord. Manderly certainly had the means to look for both Stark boys although finding Bran would be more difficult, I get that.

And because he doesn't know rickon's fate wyman isn't joining stannis. He knows that without a stark once stannis goest south he could end up serving someone he doesn't want. From his pov stannis defeating the boltons before rickon arrives is almost pointless.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cat is pissed at the general idea because it would be wrong to make a bastard the heir to Winterfell. It would cause all kind of problems ... and you actually seem to want this to become a reality. You want Jon steal the birthrights of his trueborn cousins.

Kings can do all kind of shit there is no precedent for.

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robb thinks a lot of shit is possible and the fact that Cat doesn't say 'you cannot do this' doesn't mean she thought Robb would succeed. She didn't want him to try.

Cat didn t want robb to do it because jon is a bastard and could be a threat to his kids one day. She never thinks or say that the nobles and comonfolk would be against his decision of releasing jon from his vows. And given her desire to stop the will if she thought that was a possibility she would say something. You are acting like robb decided this alone and didn't tell anyone. That is completly false.

Again, if jon is legitimized by robb winterfell belongs to him instead of his cousins. He isn't robbing anything. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do I understand you right, some ten-year-old girl can write to Stannis about the rightful Stark king, but nobody can write to Jon about that? And who would even include a ten-year-old girl in such a plot in the first place? A bunch of morons?

And you are acting as if people usualy write letters to brothers of the NW or as if someone can't read the letter before it reaches jon. Hell, how could maege and galbart even know in wich castle jon is?

And the 10 year old is acting as lady of bear island. If they want to ask for the forces of bear island then they need to talk/write to her. She literally needs to know something.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stop pretending you know that Howland is sworn to secrecy.

Then give me one logical argument why ned wouldn't ask for a vow of secrecy from howland. Why howland would share the parentage of jon with anyone when ned deems it a secret so important that he doesn't tell anyone?

Besides you not wanting something to happen there is no reason for howland to not be sworn to secrecy.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, he trained with the Green Men, so he might know much more than you think he knows. And he has a son with prophetic dreams.

That said - so far Jon Snow hasn't been proclaimed king, and Aegon has arrived and people know about Daenerys and her dragons. So what do you think Howland Reed is going to do now? Tell Jon to become the King in the North so he can fight his half-brother and aunt and drown the Realm in blood the same way Robb Stark did?

That would make him a really great guy.

You are also aware that Bran might figure out who Jon actually is, right? He could also reveal this truth to the world, just as Wylla could, or some Daynes who might know the truth. This isn't something only Howland Reed knows.

As I said, what jon or any ruler of the north has to do is become king and then negotiate an aliance. And it would only happen with marriage (jon and danny for example) or the marriage of their kids (like aegon's son and jon's daughter would marry). No stark would accept to be vassal to a lannister king or the son of rhaegar without knowing something about the dude and his military power...

And if nobody told the truth until now why would they do it at this moment? Maybe someone can tell faegon he has a brother if the daynes know the truth or if willa is alive, but they can hardly comunicate with the north. And again, all the people involved are clearly people that ned trusts and surely sworn to not tell the secret to anyone.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, I don't think Sansa will go north. I just think that this is a real possibility. Your entire Jon thing should be undone by Rickon or Brandon or Arya. And if Jon were to never figure out that 'Arya' is Jeyne (because she left for Braavos, say, before he was resurrected) then he would actually believe Arya was still alive and would *never* usurp her place as Lady of Winterfell.

But my general point is simply that I don't see anyone in the North really wanting to continue this secession thing. They lack the manpower, reason, and common sense for that. Especially as pretenders start to vie for the Iron Throne who also fight the Lannisters.

That was why I said that it will depend on the timing and will of most lords instead of who has a better claim. That jon has a will naming him heir that some people want to make happen and might be the only one to unite the northern and wildlings. Rickon on the other hand has manderley wanting to use him and we are told wyman has a lot of men and a fleet. However wyman might be dead or out of action for a while and rickon is simply too young to govern the north during its greates crisis. 

Bran should be out of the race because he should need months or years to train and therefore when he returns the kitn will already be chosen.

[divica]

1 hour ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Cool it. But yes, @divica we don't know if Howland swore a secrecy vow.

Ok. give me a logical reason why ned wouldn t ask for howland reed to swear that he would never tell anyone about jon's parentage?

[Jaenara Belarys]

2 hours ago, divica said:

Ok. give me a logical reason why ned wouldn t ask for howland reed to swear that he would never tell anyone about jon's parentage?

My point was not to argue about Howland Reed. My point is that you shouldn't act like we know that Howland swore a vow. Although it is likely, I don't know, so I won't hold it up.

[divica]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ah, what? That's complete conspiracy theory whacko stuff. So far Galbart and Maege were not seen anywhere in the North. Why would they go to the clansmen? And why would the clansmen only bestir themselves when Stannis showed up and not when they were told about some will?

How does the idea work that Galbart and Maege left the Neck if Lady Dustin has gone on record stating that she watches the Neck and will take possession of Ned's bones as soon as they emerge from there?

Those are all ideas without any textual basis.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do I understand you right, some ten-year-old girl can write to Stannis about the rightful Stark king, but nobody can write to Jon about that? And who would even include a ten-year-old girl in such a plot in the first place? A bunch of morons?

Do you know the timeline? It is obvious that galbart and maege don't know that jon is LC while they are in the neck (at the beguining of feast/dance). So if you are maege and galbart and have robb's will what can you do? Given that robb was betrayed by the freys and that roose now has the suport of the IT to be the warden of the north and that his bastard has been terrorizing the north and controls winterfell what could they do? In adition, at the start of feast the IT has hostages from several houses. So how how can they gather support to show up at the wall and make them release jon from his vows?

Choosing to go to bear island (because it is maege's home) and the clans (they are suposed to be very loyal to the starks) for support are 2 pretty obvious options. I don't even know if given the situation at the beguining of feast/dance there would be any other options that they could 100% trust because besides the IB invasion, the IT hostages and the bolton suporters robb also made some enemies like the karstarks.

And given the clan chiefs strange behaviour (jon thinks they are testing him) it makes sense that they could have learned about the will sometime after stannis visited them due to galbart glover riding there. And given that jon's last chapters happen in a very short period of time and loads of thigns are happening it also makes sense that they hadn't made their decision yet.

And please, are you comparing riders that are helped by the cragnonmen to travel in secret with some silent sisters or whoever is traveling with ned's bones that has no reason to hide?

 

Actually I really wanted to add some interesting things that make this even more credible.

We know that alysanne's sisters are with maege and given that alysane was at bear island it makes sense that until feast her younger sisters were there with her. At the very least we know that alysanne comunicated with her mother or sisters because she says that her sisters are with their mother. So we know that maege or someone in her party comunicated with bear island pretty early in feast/dance. (And therefore little lyanna might be very well informed about the will).

In adition, we know that alisanne tries to free deepwood mote (the seat of house glover) with only her men. If the mormonts knew about the will this would make a lot of sense because they would want to free deepwood motte in order to galbart glover to be able to add his men to their cause.

It is also very interesting that maege comunicated with bear island and it is likely that her 2 younger daughters joined her, however neither she nor galbart were present while mormont men tried to free galbart's castle. So it is safe to assume that they must be doing something they consider very important.

And for the future it is very interesting to think that alysanne spent weeks with an army of northnerns. Who knows how many men she might have tried to pull into supporting the will. At least she must have contacted the clansmen and the glover men.

[divica]

9 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

My point was not to argue about Howland Reed. My point is that you shouldn't act like we know that Howland swore a vow. Although it is likely, I don't know, so I won't hold it up.

Yeah, Ned didn't tell anyone the truth. Not even his wife. 

On the other hand Howland Reed was telling his wife, his son, his daughter, his parrot...

The idea that there isn't a pact between all involved to keep the secret about Jon's parentage makes 0 sense. 

[Jaenara Belarys]

2 hours ago, divica said:

On the other hand Howland Reed was telling his wife, his son, his daughter, his parrot...

 

His parrot? 

 

2 hours ago, divica said:

Yeah, Ned didn't tell anyone the truth. Not even his wife. 

 

Which is understandable, since Catelyn would've sold Jon out in three seconds. 

[divica]

22 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

His parrot?

parrot, pet dog, visiting lords. He just couldn't help himself to stop sharing ned's biggest secret...

23 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Which is understandable, since Catelyn would've sold Jon out in three seconds. 

Yeah, because cat is an awful person that would sell jon even if she wasn't pressured to do it... Unless her family was put in danger because of jon she wouldn't do anything bad to him. And probably would treat him better in their day to day life.

[Jaenara Belarys]

14 minutes ago, divica said:

parrot, pet dog, visiting lords. He just couldn't help himself to stop sharing ned's biggest secret...

 

Or, he only told his kids and maybe his wife. 

14 minutes ago, divica said:

Yeah, because cat is an awful person that would sell jon even if she wasn't pressured to do it... Unless her family was put in danger because of jon she wouldn't do anything bad to him. And probably would treat him better in their day to day life.

If she had to pick between Jon and her own kids dying, she'd pick Jon to die in half a second. Probably.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, divica said:

What are you talking about?

Do you know the timeline? It is obvious that galbart and maege don't know that jon is LC while they are in the neck (at the beguining of feast/dance). So if you are maege and galbart and have robb's will what can you do? Given that robb was betrayed by the freys and that roose now has the suport of the IT to be the warden of the north and that his bastard has been terrorizing the north and controls winterfell what could they do? In adition, at the start of feast the IT has hostages from several houses. So how how can they gather support to show up at the wall and make them release jon from his vows?

You are confused about the timeline here. Galbart and Maege leave Robb before the Red Wedding even take place. They could have been beyond the Neck even before the news about the Red Wedding reached the Neck - just as Hallis Mollen and Ned's bones should have been in Winterfell ages ago.

That they didn't indicates that Howland Reed may not exactly be well-inclined to allow his guests to leave his lands.

You should also consider the rather important fact that while Howland Reed rode with Ned against the Targaryens ... he didn't send so much as a single soldier to support Robb in his war. He send his children to prepare Bran for his role ... which was basically the steal away the heir of Winterfell from his rightful place. Because if you look at it and the way it happened Jojen knew what would transpire and that the world would think that Brandon (and Rickon) Stark are dead, completely crippling any effort to reunite the North under the rule of its rightful lord - which would be Brandon Stark.

Those are all not the actions of a man loyal to the Stark political cause as championed by Robb Stark.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And given the clan chiefs strange behaviour (jon thinks they are testing him) it makes sense that they could have learned about the will sometime after stannis visited them due to galbart glover riding there. And given that jon's last chapters happen in a very short period of time and loads of thigns are happening it also makes sense that they hadn't made their decision yet.

The clansmen are at best assessing Jon's ability as a Lord Commander and ally, not as a potential future king. They only show up at the Wall after Stannis made a deal with them - following Jon's advice - so that's all part of that alliance, not some complete thought out hidden agenda there is no textual evidence for.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And please, are you comparing riders that are helped by the cragnonmen to travel in secret with some silent sisters or whoever is traveling with ned's bones that has no reason to hide?

Lady Dustin isn't an incompetent woman. If she keeps an eye on the Neck since before the Red Wedding even took place then, well, the idea that anybody slipped her by isn't that likely.

We do have textual evidence indicating she may have captured such people, reminding us that there are crucial people still in the Neck, whereas there is no textual evidence indicating those people left the Neck.

Also, if we assume that Galbart made it out of the Neck why on earth didn't he inform his brother Robett and Lord Wyman about who is the rightful king, etc.? Wouldn't that go completely against their agenda? Would Wyman talk about Rickon as his liege lord if he he knew Robb wanted Jon to succeed him. And would anybody knowing that Bran/Rickon are still alive (which actually include the clansmen) even consider Robb's will as a viable thing.

Legitimation or not - Jon is still a man of the NW. Robb didn't get him out of there. So your claims aside that the lords must view a legitimized Jon as coming before Bran and Rickon in the line of succession (which are baseless so far) they wouldn't consider him a claimant to anything since he is a man of the NW.

That alone makes all that conspiracy theory stuff look ridiculous.

13 hours ago, divica said:

So many problems. First of, are you sugesting that LF or some noble has the power to anull a marriage? That sansa will practice bigamy openly? That LF will show sansa while the Lannisters are in power? That the vale will opose the IT to put sansa in winterfell instead of delivering her to the throne? That in Asos tyrion would be the warden of the north because he was sansa's husband but in winds sansa would still be powerless but would be the warden despite being married?twice! That the vale will construct an armada capable of tranporting 30k men? (poor euron, he is destroying the redwine fleet just so that another huge fleet appears to take its place)

Yes, a council of the Faith could annul the marriage. And we have no reason such a council cannot take place in the Vale.

And as I said - even if some people thought Sansa became a bigamist - they could resolve that problem by simply killing Tyrion if he showed up and demanded to be her husband, etc.

But since the marriage was apparently never consummated Tyrion's chances to make it viewed as valid - even if it was never formally annulled - wouldn't be that good.

13 hours ago, divica said:

No. That story is the lead up to the rebellion. Any relation to jon is for the reader to make.

What? The story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree may have led to Lyanna and Rhaegar's love.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And because he doesn't know rickon's fate wyman isn't joining stannis. He knows that without a stark once stannis goest south he could end up serving someone he doesn't want. From his pov stannis defeating the boltons before rickon arrives is almost pointless.

Stannis has no intention to go south nor does Wyman indicate he thinks Stannis will go south.

13 hours ago, divica said:

Cat didn t want robb to do it because jon is a bastard and could be a threat to his kids one day. She never thinks or say that the nobles and comonfolk would be against his decision of releasing jon from his vows. And given her desire to stop the will if she thought that was a possibility she would say something. You are acting like robb decided this alone and didn't tell anyone. That is completly false.

Robb made his will alone, he didn't ask anyone for their input. And as I said, Robb had no intention to make Jon his heir apparent. Merely a presumptive heir ... and it would be contingent on whether he could get him out of the NW or not.

13 hours ago, divica said:

Again, if jon is legitimized by robb winterfell belongs to him instead of his cousins. He isn't robbing anything. 

That is just wrong because Robb's will cannot magically turn Jon into his half-brother if he is, in fact, merely his cousin.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And you are acting as if people usualy write letters to brothers of the NW or as if someone can't read the letter before it reaches jon. Hell, how could maege and galbart even know in wich castle jon is?

Why shouldn't they reveal to the entire NW that Jon is Robb's heir as per his will? Especially while Jeor Mormont was still the LC? They would have learned that he was dead long after that happened. I mean, the earlier it is revealed, the sooner Jon could take his 'rightful place'.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And the 10 year old is acting as lady of bear island. If they want to ask for the forces of bear island then they need to talk/write to her. She literally needs to know something.

We have no idea whether she is acting as the Lady of Bear Island. Perhaps somebody just thought it would be fun to have her write the letter because nobody of importance cared to reply to Stannis.

13 hours ago, divica said:

Then give me one logical argument why ned wouldn't ask for a vow of secrecy from howland. Why howland would share the parentage of jon with anyone when ned deems it a secret so important that he doesn't tell anyone?

Because Howland isn't Ned. Ned may not even have known whether to tell his wife and children or not at the time he and Howland parted ways.

And the difference is obvious - the Neck is a very remote and isolated place, apparently, whereas Winterfell is one of the largest castles in the Realm. In the Neck a group of people can keep a secret, in Winterfell it would be much harder.

13 hours ago, divica said:

As I said, what jon or any ruler of the north has to do is become king and then negotiate an aliance. And it would only happen with marriage (jon and danny for example) or the marriage of their kids (like aegon's son and jon's daughter would marry). No stark would accept to be vassal to a lannister king or the son of rhaegar without knowing something about the dude and his military power...

That isn't actually the case. For one, there is actually no indication that (m)any Northmen - much less the Starks that are still around - want to continue this whole Stark king thing. Restoring a Stark to Winterfell/the North isn't the same as crowning them king.

But in addition to that - submission to the Iron Throne (if it is not dominated by sworn Stark enemies like the Lannisters) could only benefit them. It could help them get the food they need to survive winter, it could help them with the Others, it could help them prevent an invasion/attack while they are dealing with the Others.

And it could generally stop a pointless war.

Also, you should keep in mind that Robb wasn't just King in the North. If the Stark loyalists wanted to keep the unity of Robb's kingdom they would never want to install Jon Snow as their king because that would definitely mean they would lose the Tullys and the Riverlords. That is a given.

13 hours ago, divica said:

And if nobody told the truth until now why would they do it at this moment? Maybe someone can tell faegon he has a brother if the daynes know the truth or if willa is alive, but they can hardly comunicate with the north. And again, all the people involved are clearly people that ned trusts and surely sworn to not tell the secret to anyone.

Because the plot of the story will involve such a revelation at some point?

13 hours ago, divica said:

That was why I said that it will depend on the timing and will of most lords instead of who has a better claim. That jon has a will naming him heir that some people want to make happen and might be the only one to unite the northern and wildlings. Rickon on the other hand has manderley wanting to use him and we are told wyman has a lot of men and a fleet. However wyman might be dead or out of action for a while and rickon is simply too young to govern the north during its greates crisis. 

He is still an actual Stark, not a legitimized one. And one with Tully blood, as is Brandon and the girls.

13 hours ago, divica said:

Bran should be out of the race because he should need months or years to train and therefore when he returns the kitn will already be chosen.

Once it becomes clear that Bran is a greenseer/living god/super sorcerer - which might be sooner rather than later - he will be the guy in charge, anyway. Never mind his title. Jon and anybody else in the North will do what he says, or suffer the consequences ... which might actually be pretty dreadful.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

If she had to pick between Jon and her own kids dying, she'd pick Jon to die in half a second. Probably.

Without a doubt. But as long as her kids aren't in danger why whou she deliver jon to robert? No reason. But Ned was so concerned about jon's safety that he never told anyone the secret. On the other hand his great pal doesn't promise to keep it a secret and decides to tell whoever he wishes?

[divica]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You are confused about the timeline here. Galbart and Maege leave Robb before the Red Wedding even take place. They could have been beyond the Neck even before the news about the Red Wedding reached the Neck - just as Hallis Mollen and Ned's bones should have been in Winterfell ages ago.

That they didn't indicates that Howland Reed may not exactly be well-inclined to allow his guests to leave his lands.

You should also consider the rather important fact that while Howland Reed rode with Ned against the Targaryens ... he didn't send so much as a single soldier to support Robb in his war. He send his children to prepare Bran for his role ... which was basically the steal away the heir of Winterfell from his rightful place. Because if you look at it and the way it happened Jojen knew what would transpire and that the world would think that Brandon (and Rickon) Stark are dead, completely crippling any effort to reunite the North under the rule of its rightful lord - which would be Brandon Stark.

Those are all not the actions of a man loyal to the Stark political cause as championed by Robb Stark.

Again what are you talking about? Why would they leave the neck before hearing about the RW? 

Quote

"Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. To the center battle, where my own standard flies. Three hosts will leave the Twins, but only two will reach Moat Cailin. Mine own battle will melt away into the Neck, to reemerge on the Fever. If we move swiftly once my uncle's wed, we can all be in position by year's end. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century, as the ironmen are waking with hammers beating at their heads from the mead they'll quaff the night before."

And at the red wedding

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Lady Maege's eldest daughter was quite pretty; tall and willowy, with a shy smile that made her long face light up. It was pleasant to see that she could be as graceful on the dance floor as in the training yard. Catelyn wondered if Lady Maege had reached the Neck as yet. She had taken her other daughters with her, but as one of Robb's battle companions Dacey had chosen to remain by his side.

Robb never wanted maege and galbart to go north. The letters they were carrying were fake in case they were captured. And as of the RW cat isn't even sure if they would have reached the neck. And between reaching the neck and contacting howland reed they would need even more time. And they would be going back south to rejoin robb in taking moat cailin.

Another important thing is that cat says maege has taken her other daughters with her. And a few chapters latter alysanne knows that this is true. So it implies that alysanne comunicated with maege.

In regards to howland not sending men it is indeed weird. However he can be saving them for a time when they are most needed. At this moment the most likely situations are to cooperate with the BwB and attack the lannister host keeping hostages from the north or to fight for who he wants to rule the north in this crisis. And if you think he knows about the future and has done nothing so far to tell people about rickon and bran then he doesn't look like a bran and rickon supporter. Hell, he could have rescued rickon form skagos ages ago or spread word about bran survival...

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The clansmen are at best assessing Jon's ability as a Lord Commander and ally, not as a potential future king. They only show up at the Wall after Stannis made a deal with them - following Jon's advice - so that's all part of that alliance, not some complete thought out hidden agenda there is no textual evidence for.

When have the clans allied with the NW? And they show up at the wall for the wedding despite not showing up when mance was attacking? And with a strange behaviour? The text does support that something is going on behind the scenes. We are almost literally told so by jon.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Robb made his will alone, he didn't ask anyone for their input. And as I said, Robb had no intention to make Jon his heir apparent. Merely a presumptive heir ... and it would be contingent on whether he could get him out of the NW or not.

We literally have robb discussing his will with cat. And then several lords signing it without protest or coment. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Lady Dustin isn't an incompetent woman. If she keeps an eye on the Neck since before the Red Wedding even took place then, well, the idea that anybody slipped her by isn't that likely.

We do have textual evidence indicating she may have captured such people, reminding us that there are crucial people still in the Neck, whereas there is no textual evidence indicating those people left the Neck.

Also, if we assume that Galbart made it out of the Neck why on earth didn't he inform his brother Robett and Lord Wyman about who is the rightful king, etc.? Wouldn't that go completely against their agenda? Would Wyman talk about Rickon as his liege lord if he he knew Robb wanted Jon to succeed him. And would anybody knowing that Bran/Rickon are still alive (which actually include the clansmen) even consider Robb's will as a viable thing.

Legitimation or not - Jon is still a man of the NW. Robb didn't get him out of there. So your claims aside that the lords must view a legitimized Jon as coming before Bran and Rickon in the line of succession (which are baseless so far) they wouldn't consider him a claimant to anything since he is a man of the NW.

That alone makes all that conspiracy theory stuff look ridiculous.

Did you read what I wrote? Lady dustin is looking for people that aren't trying to slip by her. They would travel in roads or at the very least in the direction of winterfell. Another point that this theory of yours is ridiculous is that the hodeed man probably comes from the south and passed by her. As long as someone travels using one of the neck's hidden paths to emerge somewhere far from the kingsroad lady dustin has no way of knowing about it.

It is also important to note that she may plan to capture the bones as people travel trought barrowton.

Quote

"Catelyn Tully dispatched Lord Eddard's bones north before the Red Wedding, but your iron uncle seized Moat Cailin and closed the way. I have been watching ever since. Should those bones ever emerge from the swamps, they will get no farther than Barrowton." She threw one last lingering look at the likeness of Eddard Stark. "We are done here."

All you say about wyman, if you read what I have written multiple times then you would remember that at the beguining of feast wyman has a son hostage and is seen as the bolton/frey posterboy. Why would any loyal man to robb stark trust him? And I doubt galbart would know where is brother is. How can he know he is with wyman? 

If there is a person that wouldn't be informed about the will is wyman and therefore it makes sense that he knows nothing about it.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Why shouldn't they reveal to the entire NW that Jon is Robb's heir as per his will? Especially while Jeor Mormont was still the LC? They would have learned that he was dead long after that happened. I mean, the earlier it is revealed, the sooner Jon could take his 'rightful place'.

Why would the NW let jon leave his vows without being pressured by lords with actual power? And if they spread the will they would make jon a target that at the moment they have no way to protect.

And if you remember jeor was dead or missing even before the RW. It is possible they knew about it because the NW would have sent letters asking for help when the wildlings were attacking and they would have told that jeor is dead.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no idea whether she is acting as the Lady of Bear Island. Perhaps somebody just thought it would be fun to have her write the letter because nobody of importance cared to reply to Stannis.

Yeah, because that happens all the time in asoiaf...

We know that who signs oficial letters is the person in charge. And if alysanne had already left to attack deepwood motte then lyanna would be the one in charge because she would probably be the oldest mormont around. Just like bran was...

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Howland isn't Ned. Ned may not even have known whether to tell his wife and children or not at the time he and Howland parted ways.

And the difference is obvious - the Neck is a very remote and isolated place, apparently, whereas Winterfell is one of the largest castles in the Realm. In the Neck a group of people can keep a secret, in Winterfell it would be much harder.

Yeah, in the neck it would be common knowledge that jon is lyanna's son. Makes total sense. Or people in the neck don't write letters. And there aren't spies in the neck. And people in the neck don't speak with the outside world.

It isn't debatable that it is almost certain that all people involved have sworn vows to keep the secret. Anything else would be extremelly weird and unlikely.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That isn't actually the case. For one, there is actually no indication that (m)any Northmen - much less the Starks that are still around - want to continue this whole Stark king thing. Restoring a Stark to Winterfell/the North isn't the same as crowning them king.

But in addition to that - submission to the Iron Throne (if it is not dominated by sworn Stark enemies like the Lannisters) could only benefit them. It could help them get the food they need to survive winter, it could help them with the Others, it could help them prevent an invasion/attack while they are dealing with the Others.

And it could generally stop a pointless war.

Also, you should keep in mind that Robb wasn't just King in the North. If the Stark loyalists wanted to keep the unity of Robb's kingdom they would never want to install Jon Snow as their king because that would definitely mean they would lose the Tullys and the Riverlords. That is a given.

Have you heard about a lyanna mormont lol?

And have you heard about the riverlords signing a will declaring jon robb's heir without raising problems?

Have you heard about the northerns also hatings targs because of rhaegar and aerys? It isn't that easy for them to bend the knee if there aren't dragons around.

However most of what you wrote is literally against what actually happened in the books. I don't know what to say...

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He is still an actual Stark, not a legitimized one. And one with Tully blood, as is Brandon and the girls.

And he is also a 5 year old kid without education and raised by a wildling. Hardly king material at the moment. I don't even know if he would want it... Maybe he just wants to live in skagos with his new mommy...

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, divica said:

Again what are you talking about? Why would they leave the neck before hearing about the RW? 

They may have waited for Robb's news, I grant you that. But after they learned of the Red Wedding they should have had ample time to get to some Northern castle before the end of ASoS. Glover and Mormont could actually have been at CB helping Jon Snow defend the Wall against Mance if they had wanted to reach him.

And, of course, Hallis Mollen could long ago have brought Ned's bones to some Northern castle outside the Neck. He doesn't expect that Lady Dustin is out to get Ned's remains, no?

Instead the impression we have is that Reed doesn't want anyone joining him in the Neck to leave his lands. That's kind of curious, no?

Quote

Robb never wanted maege and galbart to go north. The letters they were carrying were fake in case they were captured. And as of the RW cat isn't even sure if they would have reached the neck. And between reaching the neck and contacting howland reed they would need even more time. And they would be going back south to rejoin robb in taking moat cailin.

Envoys of Robb's should have been brought to Howland as soon as they chanced on the first crannogmen.

Quote

Another important thing is that cat says maege has taken her other daughters with her. And a few chapters latter alysanne knows that this is true. So it implies that alysanne comunicated with maege.

No, that just means that Alysane knows that Maege had her sisters with her when she left wherever she went.

Quote

In regards to howland not sending men it is indeed weird. However he can be saving them for a time when they are most needed. At this moment the most likely situations are to cooperate with the BwB and attack the lannister host keeping hostages from the north or to fight for who he wants to rule the north in this crisis. And if you think he knows about the future and has done nothing so far to tell people about rickon and bran then he doesn't look like a bran and rickon supporter. Hell, he could have rescued rickon form skagos ages ago or spread word about bran survival...

I think Howland has more important things to worry about than silly secession and succession wars.

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When have the clans allied with the NW? And they show up at the wall for the wedding despite not showing up when mance was attacking? And with a strange behaviour? The text does support that something is going on behind the scenes. We are almost literally told so by jon.

Because Stannis went to the clansmen before they showed up at the Wall. The wedding was even conducted by Melisandre, meaning this whole thing is more something done for/by Stannis, not Jon Snow. All Jon did what offering Alys Karstark refuge at the Wall.

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We literally have robb discussing his will with cat. And then several lords signing it without protest or coment. 

Robb made proclamations at that meeting, he didn't ask for advice. And he has no clue what his lords thought about that idea. Cat was the only one who pointed out that this thing was stupid.

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Did you read what I wrote? Lady dustin is looking for people that aren't trying to slip by her. They would travel in roads or at the very least in the direction of winterfell. Another point that this theory of yours is ridiculous is that the hodeed man probably comes from the south and passed by her. As long as someone travels using one of the neck's hidden paths to emerge somewhere far from the kingsroad lady dustin has no way of knowing about it.

That makes no sense since Lady Dustin wouldn't have expected Mollen to emerge close to the Ironborn-occupied Moat Cailin, no?

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It is also important to note that she may plan to capture the bones as people travel trought barrowton.

Why would they travel through Barrowton? Barrowton isn't on the way to Winterfell.

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All you say about wyman, if you read what I have written multiple times then you would remember that at the beguining of feast wyman has a son hostage and is seen as the bolton/frey posterboy. Why would any loyal man to robb stark trust him? And I doubt galbart would know where is brother is. How can he know he is with wyman?

Ah ... because Robett is quite some time at White Harbor and rather outspoken in his attempt to retake his brother's castle?

This is how you do whacko conspiracy theories - there are no concrete hints in any of the POV chapters, but obvious problems you can explain a way rather easily.

It is also pretty silly if you think about that Lord Glover should care more about Jon Snow and the will of a dead king than, you know, getting back his own castle. Which should have been his priority if he ever got out of the Neck. Why on earth needed the clansmen Stannis for their attack if Maege and Galbart could have motivated them to do the same thing?

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Why would the NW let jon leave his vows without being pressured by lords with actual power? And if they spread the will they would make jon a target that at the moment they have no way to protect.

The first thing to do to make it even possible that Jon Snow might leave the NW to take possession of Winterfell and the North would to tell people about Robb's will - which might not even include a legitimization decree according to George, since we have no idea about the actual contents of the will. And that's not an accident, according to the author.

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And if you remember jeor was dead or missing even before the RW. It is possible they knew about it because the NW would have sent letters asking for help when the wildlings were attacking and they would have told that jeor is dead.

Nope, the news about Mormonts death only reached CB when the survivors from Craster's Keep returned.

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We know that who signs oficial letters is the person in charge. And if alysanne had already left to attack deepwood motte then lyanna would be the one in charge because she would probably be the oldest mormont around. Just like bran was...

That makes no sense either. Ramsay also writes letters, but he isn't the one in charge. Roose is. Aemon also writes letters and he isn't in charge of the Watch.

Timeline-wise it makes no sense that Alysane had already leaft Bear Island by the time that Lyanna wrote her letter, because Stannis received that letter at the very beginning of ADwD and only left for the clansmen weeks later ... and then he spent some time with them before moving on to Deepwood.

It is actually much more likely that the clansmen informed the Mormonts about their alliance with Stannis, resulting in them attacking the Ironborn at the same time.

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Yeah, in the neck it would be common knowledge that jon is lyanna's son. Makes total sense. Or people in the neck don't write letters. And there aren't spies in the neck. And people in the neck don't speak with the outside world.

There are no maesters and no ravens in the Neck, yes. And, yes, the crannogmen are very isolated and don't seem to have a lot of contact with the outside world.

Also, I never said that Howland would have shared his knowledge about Jon Snow with all his people ... I said I think he shared it with his children. And I said I think he expected that Ned also told his family the truth about Jon Snow.

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It isn't debatable that it is almost certain that all people involved have sworn vows to keep the secret. Anything else would be extremelly weird and unlikely.

This is definitely not 'almost certain'.

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And have you heard about the riverlords signing a will declaring jon robb's heir without raising problems?

They didn't agree with the will, they just witnessed it. They didn't even swear vows to uphold or care for a particular succession (unlike plenty of lords who did that for Rhaenyra only to break their vows when their king died). They may not even be interested to continue Robb's weirdo kingdom idea now that he died with about 15,000 men.

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Have you heard about the northerns also hatings targs because of rhaegar and aerys? It isn't that easy for them to bend the knee if there aren't dragons around.

I don't recall any such lines being there in the books.

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And he is also a 5 year old kid without education and raised by a wildling. Hardly king material at the moment. I don't even know if he would want it... Maybe he just wants to live in skagos with his new mommy...

That is a classical case of special pleading. Rickon's personal interests/circumstances are suddenly important, whereas Jon's legal status and intentions are irrelevant. You don't really care whether the character of Jon Snow would even want to be king - which, to this point, he never once even thought about.

[Mister Smikes]

I do.  Just send me $20.00.

[divica]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They may have waited for Robb's news, I grant you that. But after they learned of the Red Wedding they should have had ample time to get to some Northern castle before the end of ASoS. Glover and Mormont could actually have been at CB helping Jon Snow defend the Wall against Mance if they had wanted to reach him.

And, of course, Hallis Mollen could long ago have brought Ned's bones to some Northern castle outside the Neck. He doesn't expect that Lady Dustin is out to get Ned's remains, no?

Instead the impression we have is that Reed doesn't want anyone joining him in the Neck to leave his lands. That's kind of curious, no?

 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Envoys of Robb's should have been brought to Howland as soon as they chanced on the first crannogmen.

If you pay close atention to the timeline you would notice that Maege and mormont would be reaching the neck around the time of the RW. Then they would need to be led to howland. Then they would travel back south. And only then would they have the chance to hear about the RW. Robb only planted to start the fight around the new year, so a couple of people hidden in the midle of nowhere waiting for robb might have taken longer to hear about the RW than most people.

And the problem with hallis mollen is the same problems maege and galbart face. When he reached the neck the way is closed and winterfell taken. When the way opens we have a bunch of northern lords siding with the boltons. How does he know who he can trust and why would he venture north when his objective is winterfell? As long as winterfell is in bolton hands why would he leave the neck? Do you think he would ask the boltons to bury ned in winterfell? NO.

And we have no such impression about people not leaving the neck. As a matter of fact we know that it is very likely that maege has talked to allysane.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, that just means that Alysane knows that Maege had her sisters with her when she left wherever she went.

But we know robb sent maege in a secret mission. She wouldn't be sending letter back home giving details about her mission. So alysane wouldn't be able to know that maege left with her sisters to the neck without talking to her. As far as she knows they could have stayed with robb's army and died in the RW or be one of the few that escaped. However she KNOWS they are with maege and that is only possible if they comunicated. Notice that alysanne doesn't say she hopes or thinks that her sisters are with maege, she knows. 

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"Sisters," Alysane Mormont replied, gruff as ever. "Five, we were. All girls. Lyanna is back on Bear Island. Lyra and Jory are with our mother. Dacey was murdered."

And I am not even sure how alysane would know her familly is still alive after all the confusion in the riverlands if maege hasn't comunicated with her.

That isn't the actions of someone that is locked in the neck.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think Howland has more important things to worry about than silly secession and succession wars.

However he looks to be in the middle of it all. Protecting a will and with LSH heading in his direction howland looks like one important player about what is about to happen.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Stannis went to the clansmen before they showed up at the Wall. The wedding was even conducted by Melisandre, meaning this whole thing is more something done for/by Stannis, not Jon Snow. All Jon did what offering Alys Karstark refuge at the Wall.

What has a wildling and northern lady marrying have to do with stannis? And I have serious doubts that selise is even at the wedding. It was jon that invited them and 2 important and old warriors decided to come. And jon is sure they didn't come for the wedding alone.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Robb made proclamations at that meeting, he didn't ask for advice. And he has no clue what his lords thought about that idea. Cat was the only one who pointed out that this thing was stupid.

Cat disagreed with it but not for the reasons you want. And when robb gives his solution for the NW she ends up agreeing. And Robb didn't do a proclamation. He ordered his lords to sign his will. And nobody made any coment. 

And even more important. No one talked with catelyn in her future chapters about trying to change robb's decision. If they had problems about it someone would have asked catelyn about trying to change the situation. Mentioned that it is wrong. Something...

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That makes no sense since Lady Dustin wouldn't have expected Mollen to emerge close to the Ironborn-occupied Moat Cailin, no?

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why would they travel through Barrowton? Barrowton isn't on the way to Winterfell.

Even if she didn't expect them to emerge near moat cailin she would expect someone to appear heading to winterfell. She doesn't need to be on the look out for all the neck, just on the look out for people heading to winterfell.

And it is lady dustin that says that the bones won't pass barroton, not me. So her plans might be focused on controling the routes between the neck and winterfell but near barrowtown instead of the neck. That would be feasible and her men know that area much better.

But on the whole, she shouldn't expect anyone to emerge while the boltons control winterfell. that is idiotic.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ah ... because Robett is quite some time at White Harbor and rather outspoken in his attempt to retake his brother's castle?

This is how you do whacko conspiracy theories - there are no concrete hints in any of the POV chapters, but obvious problems you can explain a way rather easily.

It is also pretty silly if you think about that Lord Glover should care more about Jon Snow and the will of a dead king than, you know, getting back his own castle. Which should have been his priority if he ever got out of the Neck. Why on earth needed the clansmen Stannis for their attack if Maege and Galbart could have motivated them to do the same thing?

Again, you have a lot of problems keeping the timeline in your head. Robett was put in a ship from duskendale when robb is marching to the RW. So at the beguining of feast he should have been in white arbor for a short period of time. 

And if you think the neck is an isolated place why do you think that they would have news that robbett is trying to raise men in white arbor? And how long would those news take to reach the neck? Just because you know something doesn't mean the characters also know it. For example, you can't find a quote about northmen blaming the bolton for the RW despite you wanting to.

And if you think about it galbart could have been trying to get his castle back and enforce robb's will. He needed men to do both! And one of the few places with men loyal to the starks is with the clans. So it does make a lot of sense for galbart to ride to the clans in order to convince them to support jon and to gather men to retake deepwood motte. And we also have alysane atacking DM after being in contact with maege. It makes sense that she told alysane to harass them while she and galbart go to the clans gather men for the attack. What they didn't expect was for jon to send stannis there before they arrived. 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The first thing to do to make it even possible that Jon Snow might leave the NW to take possession of Winterfell and the North would to tell people about Robb's will - which might not even include a legitimization decree according to George, since we have no idea about the actual contents of the will. And that's not an accident, according to the author.

And if they tell people about the will and the boltons send men to the NW to kill jon? They already killed 2 starks, why shouldn't they kill another? And how do they know what houses are loyal to the boltons and the IT? How can they disclose the will in these conditions? It is impossible.

It is even the same reason why wyman isn't telling everybody that rickon is alive in skagos. He just can't share that information with northmen...

What they need to do is gather enough support so that when they show on the NW they are pressured to release jon and he has a fighting chance. And once again, besides the clans and mormonts there should be very few places where they can gather support without reasons to suspect they might be on the bolton/IT side or the lands were taken by the IB.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, the news about Mormonts death only reached CB when the survivors from Craster's Keep returned.

And those survivors reached CB much earlier than jon. And jon should have arrived there around the same time as the RW. And in the letter the NW sent to stannis did they mention jeor?

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That makes no sense either. Ramsay also writes letters, but he isn't the one in charge. Roose is. Aemon also writes letters and he isn't in charge of the Watch.

Timeline-wise it makes no sense that Alysane had already leaft Bear Island by the time that Lyanna wrote her letter, because Stannis received that letter at the very beginning of ADwD and only left for the clansmen weeks later ... and then he spent some time with them before moving on to Deepwood.

It is actually much more likely that the clansmen informed the Mormonts about their alliance with Stannis, resulting in them attacking the Ironborn at the same time.

Neither ramsay nor aemon would answer a letter from the king to their lord if they aren't in charge. We are talking about a letter stannis sent to bear island and that lyanna decides to answer in that way. Do you think ramsay would answer a letter sent for roose? That aemon would answer a letter sent for the LC?

And even jon thinks this

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Lady Maege had other daughters, some with children of their own. Had they gone with Robb as well? Surely Lady Maege would have left at least one of the older girls behind as castellan. He did not understand why Lyanna should be writing Stannis, and could not help but wonder if the girl's answer might have been different if the letter had been sealed with a direwolf instead of a crowned stag, and signed by Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell

We are clearly told that lyanna is writting she is acting as catellan and later we know that alysanne was in the north near DM. So either alysanne was doing other stuff after being in contact with maege or she had already started harrassing the IB at that time. those are the only options.

And if the clansmen had contacted the mormonts someone would have told us. 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no maesters and no ravens in the Neck, yes. And, yes, the crannogmen are very isolated and don't seem to have a lot of contact with the outside world.

So how could they learn what robbett glover is doing?

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a classical case of special pleading. Rickon's personal interests/circumstances are suddenly important, whereas Jon's legal status and intentions are irrelevant. You don't really care whether the character of Jon Snow would even want to be king - which, to this point, he never once even thought about.

I never talked about it because it never came up and it is irrelevant for how maege and galbart are behaving because they haven't talked with jon.

However, jon's legal status is something that should be adressed in robb's will and therefore pretty important.