divica Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Look you do know you whole post is against what is actualy written right? 23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Mance doesn't dislike Tormund, he just doesn't think that Tormund is going to have as much success with the wildlings as the Weeper will have. And he doesn't look forward to that guy coming down south, as he himself points out in the Melisandre chapter Quote Snow's been assuming the free folk would turn to Tormund to lead them, because that's what he would do. He liked Tormund, and the old fraud liked him too. If it's the Weeper, though … that's not good He thinks tormund is a fraud. That is hardly a compliment you would make to someone you like. 23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: The 'certain ploy' Mance talks about is him using the spearwives as washerwomen so he can infiltrate Winterfell as Abel the Bard. And the point of that is to get 'Arya' to Jon Snow. There is no indication that Mance had any other objective or goal at Winterfell. This is wrong because the plan was for mance to catch arya riding the dying horse near the lake. The plan never involved going to winterfell. That is something that mance decides on his own AFTER leaving CB and long after having asked for the spearwives. Quote A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. Nobody ever mentioned winterfell to mance. However he imediatly chose to ask for 6 spearwives ofr some unkonwn ploy. Quote The girl's more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind 23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Mance also had no foreknowledge that he would go to Winterfell. Melisandre saw something in her fires and then suggested to Jon that they should send Mance. How could Mance have another agenda at Winterfell in such a scenario? Because neither she nor jon sent mance to winterfell. They sent him to help a gir riding to the wal west of a lake. Mance is the one that by himself alredy had a plan to infiltrate winterfell. And even more damning is that mance somehow was able to take the ruby that linked him blood and sould to mel. If he was loyal why would he have found a way to take the gem off? How and where did he even find a way to do it? Quote "So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul," the red priestess said. 23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: If Mance had volunteered to do this - like Littlefinger did when he volunteered to go to Highgarden on behalf of King Joffrey - then it might be warranted to be somewhat suspicious. But there is nothing of this sort there ... nor any indication at Winterfell that Mance has ulterior motives or another agenda besides saving Arya. Mance could have gone to the area described in mel's vision and wait. However he decided to go to winterfell, found a way to take the ruby off and had a ploy that needed the spearwives besides gaining arya's trust. And who know what he expects to find in winterfell? People have long suspected that there is something hidden there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egged Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Mance has no way of knowing that such a letter written by him would create 'chaos'. Jon Snow could just ignore it. Mance doesn't dislike Tormund, he just doesn't think that Tormund is going to have as much success with the wildlings as the Weeper will have. And he doesn't look forward to that guy coming down south, as he himself points out in the Melisandre chapter. The 'certain ploy' Mance talks about is him using the spearwives as washerwomen so he can infiltrate Winterfell as Abel the Bard. And the point of that is to get 'Arya' to Jon Snow. There is no indication that Mance had any other objective or goal at Winterfell. Mance also had no foreknowledge that he would go to Winterfell. Melisandre saw something in her fires and then suggested to Jon that they should send Mance. How could Mance have another agenda at Winterfell in such a scenario? If Mance had volunteered to do this - like Littlefinger did when he volunteered to go to Highgarden on behalf of King Joffrey - then it might be warranted to be somewhat suspicious. But there is nothing of this sort there ... nor any indication at Winterfell that Mance has ulterior motives or another agenda besides saving Arya. Everything I listed before points to Mance being the only good candidate for writing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, divica said: Look you do know you whole post is against what is actualy written right? He thinks tormund is a fraud. That is hardly a compliment you would make to someone you like. You might recall that I didn't say Mance liked Tormund, I said he didn't dislike him. That's different. But 'fraud' isn't that much of an insult there - it is a reference to Tormund talking big - he even styles himself 'Tall-Talker', if you remember - while not actually being that important a guy. 4 minutes ago, divica said: This is wrong because the plan was for mance to catch arya riding the dying horse near the lake. The plan never involved going to winterfell. That is something that mance decides on his own AFTER leaving CB and long after having asked for the spearwives. Nobody ever mentioned winterfell to mance. However he imediatly chose to ask for 6 spearwives ofr some unkonwn ploy. That is by no way clear. Mance didn't really need women to find a girl on a dying horse. He would also not need her trust him if she was on a dying horse and couldn't outrun him. Nor would she distrust him if he showed up, say, in the black of the Watch since they were operating under the assumption she wanted to get to the Wall and Jon. Instead, the idea is that Mance did not just have the job to find a girl on a horse - which he could never find on the basis of a vision anyway, since visions do not come with time stamps - but to get Arya out of Winterfell if she was still there when he was going down south. The vision could come to pass any kind of ways ... one of them clearly would be if Mance and his women got Arya out of Winterfell so she can ride a horse to the Wall which might be dying when it gets there. The chapter in question also ends before specific plans are made and Jon Snow formally gives Mance his assignment and allows him to pick the women he wants to use his certain ploy. Jon is later confused because another girl on a dying horse showed up and he doesn't know whether Melisandre and Mance played him by simply claiming the girl Mel saw in her vision were Arya whereas they had another agenda entirely ... an agenda that involved unleashing Mance upon the North. That is why Jon no longer trusts Melisandre after that. But as it happens Mance went to Winterfell and did his best to save Arya so we, the readers, know that he stayed true to his mission ... even if Jon never directly told him to do anything in his power to save Arya or something along those lines. Which we don't really know since the chapter ended before Jon gave Mance his mission. Even Mance exceeded his mandate in going to Winterfell ... he clearly did it to get 'Arya' out of the castle. We know that because he did it, and there is no indication he wanted to do more than that. 4 minutes ago, divica said: Because neither she nor jon sent mance to winterfell. They sent him to help a gir riding to the wal west of a lake. Mance is the one that by himself alredy had a plan to infiltrate winterfell. And even more damning is that mance somehow was able to take the ruby that linked him blood and sould to mel. If he was loyal why would he have found a way to take the gem off? How and where did he even find a way to do it? Actually, you shouldn't believe that crap. The ruby was just a glamor, like the one Melisandre herself constantly wears to appear the way she does (presumably at least). Mel just told a story why Rattleshirt (Mance in truth) suddenly wore a ruby similar to her own. The ruby is simply gone because Mance is Mance again right now ... although I'd expect to have it among his things. In fact, the only way Mance may have evaded capture inside Winterfell would be by wearing the glamor again, so the men at Winterfell would not realize that he is Abel the Bard when encountering him ... or searching for able with the Bolton blood hounds. The other way would be if he teamed up with the Manderlys and left Winterfell with them. If he did neither, he truly sits in that cage now. 4 minutes ago, divica said: Mance could have gone to the area described in mel's vision and wait. However he decided to go to winterfell, found a way to take the ruby off and had a ploy that needed the spearwives besides gaining arya's trust. And who know what he expects to find in winterfell? People have long suspected that there is something hidden there.... Mance is no expert for Winterfell. The one thing he was interested at were the crypts ... and that was because he thought there may be a tunnel down there that leads outside the castle. A tunnel Theon may have used to take the castle ... and a tunnel Mance and his women intended to use to get 'Arya' out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Egged said: Everything I listed before points to Mance being the only good candidate for writing it. The points you listed are irrelevant if the man in question doesn't have a motive (or the opportunity) to write and send such a letter. And that's pretty much the case for Mance. But more importantly, Ramsay's sources for writing the Pink Letter - meaning the people who told him about Jon and Melisandre being the people behind Mance's mission - would have been either surviving wildling women or Mance himself. So whatever you think is wildling or Mance talk in the Pink Letter could have crept in there by way of Ramsay - with Ramsay's mind being so occupied with what he tortured out of Mance and/or the women that he consciously or unconsciously used their vocabulary when writing the letter. And this actually makes much more sense than the idea that Mance would write such a silly letter where he paints himself as a naked dude in a cage being forced to wear a cloak made of the skin of his female companions. Thus such an analysis actually establishes nothing of substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divica Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: That is by no way clear. Mance didn't really need women to find a girl on a dying horse. He would also not need her trust him if she was on a dying horse and couldn't outrun him. Nor would she distrust him if he showed up, say, in the black of the Watch since they were operating under the assumption she wanted to get to the Wall and Jon. How can one man watch miles upon miles of land that can lead to CB? It is obvious he would need help looking out for arya. And it is also obvious that a lone girl wouldn't easily trust a man (or men) for obvious reasons. And as we saw in craster's keep NW brothers are no diferent from other men. So it makes perfect sense that he wants some women to help him keep tabs on the roads people can take to CB and that women would be a much better choice to aproach a young woman. 17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Instead, the idea is that Mance did not just have the job to find a girl on a horse - which he could never find on the basis of a vision anyway, since visions do not come with time stamps - but to get Arya out of Winterfell if she was still there when he was going down south. The vision could come to pass any kind of ways ... one of them clearly would be if Mance and his women got Arya out of Winterfell so she can ride a horse to the Wall which might be dying when it gets there. This doesn't make much sense. You would be implying that the reason arya was on the dying horse is because mance was sent to rescue her. Therefore the vision would be the reason for the vision happening because jon wouldn't send mance otherwise. This makes very little sense. And mance would need more people with him precisely because he needs to keep watch of the roads leading to the NW for a period of time. 23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: But as it happens Mance went to Winterfell and did his best to save Arya so we, the readers, know that he stayed true to his mission ... even if Jon never directly told him to do anything in his power to save Arya or something along those lines. Which we don't really know since the chapter ended before Jon gave Mance his mission. Even Mance exceeded his mandate in going to Winterfell ... he clearly did it to get 'Arya' out of the castle. We know that because he did it, and there is no indication he wanted to do more than that. Well, some people would say that mance was overly interested in finding the stark cripts. It isn't like we have a lot of information about what mance is doing... 27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Actually, you shouldn't believe that crap. The ruby was just a glamor, like the one Melisandre herself constantly wears to appear the way she does (presumably at least). Mel just told a story why Rattleshirt (Mance in truth) suddenly wore a ruby similar to her own. The ruby is simply gone because Mance is Mance again right now ... although I'd expect to have it among his things. In fact, the only way Mance may have evaded capture inside Winterfell would be by wearing the glamor again, so the men at Winterfell would not realize that he is Abel the Bard when encountering him ... or searching for able with the Bolton blood hounds. The other way would be if he teamed up with the Manderlys and left Winterfell with them. If he did neither, he truly sits in that cage now. Well, read this Quote When the flames had licked at Rattleshirt, the ruby at her throat had grown so hot that she had feared her own flesh might start to smoke and blacken. Thankfully Lord Snow had delivered her from that agony with his arrows. So we do know that rattleshirt was linked with mel so why wouldn't mance? What we can argue is that mance and mel would only be linked when mance used the glamor and that mel simply misled jon into thinking that mance had to use the ruby at all times and that it linked mance to her. Because she certainly implied that while mance used the ruby then he can't betray jon. However, without the safeguard of the ruby why would mel and stannis trust mance? He has an army of thousands of wildlings north of the wall. So he would need to be under constant vigilance and never alowed to go galivating alone outside CB... And unless stannis doesn't feel the diference between old skin and young skin then mel's ruby doesn't glamor her. 38 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Mance is no expert for Winterfell. The one thing he was interested at were the crypts ... and that was because he thought there may be a tunnel down there that leads outside the castle. A tunnel Theon may have used to take the castle ... and a tunnel Mance and his women intended to use to get 'Arya' out. That is your assumptions. In reality the wildlings know things that other people have forgoten and mance was well versed about winterfell stories. After all he knows about abel for example. Who knows if there isn't something hidden in the crypts of winterfell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 11 hours ago, divica said: How can one man watch miles upon miles of land that can lead to CB? It is obvious he would need help looking out for arya. But it is never implied he needs the women for such a job. It is also kind of ridiculous to assume a couple of women and Mance could watch all the ways somebody might take to get to Castle Black. A girl on a horse doesn't have to use roads to move from one place to another. In fact, if she is hunted she might deliberately avoid using roads ... like Bran and the Reeds did, for instance. Quote And it is also obvious that a lone girl wouldn't easily trust a man (or men) for obvious reasons. And as we saw in craster's keep NW brothers are no diferent from other men. Oh, but why would the girl then search refuge at the Wall? Because she doesn't trust men or black brothers in general? Quote So it makes perfect sense that he wants some women to help him keep tabs on the roads people can take to CB and that women would be a much better choice to aproach a young woman. Mance actually says that he also wants the women so the girl would trust him ... but in connection with the certain ploy (i.e. the Abel disguise) it makes sense that the women were there to help Mance gain Arya's trust so she would leave Winterfell with them. Quote This doesn't make much sense. You would be implying that the reason arya was on the dying horse is because mance was sent to rescue her. Therefore the vision would be the reason for the vision happening because jon wouldn't send mance otherwise. That is one of many ways how the vision could come to pass. I mean, let's say Jon and Mel hoped Mance and the women would chance on Arya on the road. Not very likely that this would happen since there was just a vision of the girl on the horse, not a vision of a girl on a horse meeting Mance on the road ... but let's say that was one of the scenarios they went with. What should Mance do if he walked down south never chancing on the girl and getting closer and closer to Winterfell and learning from folks on the road that Arya Stark was there and to be married to Ramsay Bolton? To get her to Jon he has to go to her, no? And he doesn't know whether she will ever escape on her own or only with his help. Should he just wait outside the castle and hope she will get out one day or should he go in there and get her out himself? It seems clear to me that the latter was part of his mission if push came to shove. Else he wouldn't have done it. Because this was very risky business. That's one of the problems with visions. You don't know whether they come to pass with or without your help/active involvement. Quote Well, some people would say that mance was overly interested in finding the stark cripts. It isn't like we have a lot of information about what mance is doing... We know why Mance was looking for the crypts. He thought there was a secret tunnel there which Theon used to sneak into Winterfell. That's it. Quote Well, read this So we do know that rattleshirt was linked with mel so why wouldn't mance? Oh, Mel was linked to the glamor alright. Remember, Rattleshirt looked like Mance and Mance looked like Rattleshirt. Rattleshirt also wore a glamor when he was burned, most likely another ruby somewhere beneath his clothes. It is implied that Mance's ruby is sort of connected to Mel's ruby, getting his power from hers. It was this connection that seemed to hurt Mel while Rattleshirt burned. Not some kind of mind control device feedback loop. But there is no indication that this connection enslaves the minds of the wearer of the glamor ... considering Mance clearly can do what he wants while wearing the glamor, just as Rattleshirt did when he realized how Stannis and Mel had tricked him, forcing Stannis' people to silence him before he could reveal who he actually was. Quote What we can argue is that mance and mel would only be linked when mance used the glamor and that mel simply misled jon into thinking that mance had to use the ruby at all times and that it linked mance to her. Because she certainly implied that while mance used the ruby then he can't betray jon. That was when Mel and Mance still presented Mance as Rattleshirt to Jon. The 'he cannot betray me' routine was an attempt to convince Jon to trust Mance as Rattleshirt. It didn't work. This entire thing goes away after Mel reveals who Rattleshirt actually is. Jon is willing to trust Mance because he knows him. Not because some magical ruby controls him. Quote However, without the safeguard of the ruby why would mel and stannis trust mance? He has an army of thousands of wildlings north of the wall. So he would need to be under constant vigilance and never alowed to go galivating alone outside CB... LOL, no. Mance is clearly Stannis/Mel's and later Jon's man. He wants to work with them to save his people from and eventually defeat the Others. He has no other agenda; never had, in fact, as he confessed to Jon when he said that all he wants is to hide behind the Wall with his people. Mance could have easily enough fled CB if he wanted to. The man is fucking Mance Rayder. Remember how he beat up Jon in the practice yard. Nobody knows that he is Mance, so if he hadn't shown off in the yard but instead used the skills he had to escape he could cut his way through a dozen or a score of black brothers to escape wherever he wanted to get ... and that would only be necessary if he wouldn't be able to use his skills to just sneak out of the fortress at night. It is not that CB has walls or gates he would need to avoid. And as a former black brother he would know all worm ways and tunnels in CB. Quote That is your assumptions. In reality the wildlings know things that other people have forgoten and mance was well versed about winterfell stories. After all he knows about abel for example. Who knows if there isn't something hidden in the crypts of winterfell? You mean the story about Bael? So what, that's just a story. There might be a lot of stuff hidden in the crypts of Winterfell but why would Mance be interested in stuff like that? He isn't exactly a collector of Stark bones or Stark relics as far as we know. Instead, we do know why he was interested in the crypts - he thought there was a secret tunnel there he could use to get 'Arya' out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divica Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 8 hours ago, Lord Varys said: But it is never implied he needs the women for such a job. It is also kind of ridiculous to assume a couple of women and Mance could watch all the ways somebody might take to get to Castle Black. A girl on a horse doesn't have to use roads to move from one place to another. In fact, if she is hunted she might deliberately avoid using roads ... like Bran and the Reeds did, for instance. 8 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Mance actually says that he also wants the women so the girl would trust him ... but in connection with the certain ploy (i.e. the Abel disguise) it makes sense that the women were there to help Mance gain Arya's trust so she would leave Winterfell with them. If you read mel's chapter that is when the plan is formed you see that mance is trying to find where the girl is in the vision. He is asking for what mel sees so that he can know better where to look. So he doesn't have to pay atention to all roads, only those mentioned in the area of the vision. And when he is given information about where arya is nobody mentions winterfell. How can he make a plan rescue her from winterfell when he doesn't know she is there? Seriously check the text below and you see that there is no connection between mance's plan and going to winterfell because mel tells him arya is ridding near a lake. When he is in CB he has no way of conecting arya to winterfell. Quote "If your stiff-necked lord commander will allow it. Did your fires show you where to find this girl?" "I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever." "Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?" "Hills. Fields. Trees. A deer, once. Stones. She is staying well away from villages. When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail." He frowned. "That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?" Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. "West." "She is not coming up the kingsroad, then. Clever girl. There are fewer watchers on the other side, and more cover. And some hidey-holes I have used myself from time—" And in regards to the spearwives. Read the quote again. He says that the spearwives will be useful to gain her trust AND to help him in a certain plot. In no way does he connect his ploy to gaining arya's trust or even helping her. From the way he talks it can be completly unrelated. 8 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Oh, but why would the girl then search refuge at the Wall? Because she doesn't trust men or black brothers in general? She would seek refuge at the wall because jon is there. She would certainly be wary of being near random men in the midle of nowhere. And if you look at what men in the middle of nowhere do to women in the story it is something logical. 8 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That is one of many ways how the vision could come to pass. No. Usually there is a vision and mel takes advantage of knowing what will happen in the future to acomplish something. She seeing something shouldn't be the reason why what she is seeing happens... 8 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That is one of many ways how the vision could come to pass. I mean, let's say Jon and Mel hoped Mance and the women would chance on Arya on the road. Not very likely that this would happen since there was just a vision of the girl on the horse, not a vision of a girl on a horse meeting Mance on the road ... but let's say that was one of the scenarios they went with. What should Mance do if he walked down south never chancing on the girl and getting closer and closer to Winterfell and learning from folks on the road that Arya Stark was there and to be married to Ramsay Bolton? To get her to Jon he has to go to her, no? And he doesn't know whether she will ever escape on her own or only with his help. Should he just wait outside the castle and hope she will get out one day or should he go in there and get her out himself? It seems clear to me that the latter was part of his mission if push came to shove. Else he wouldn't have done it. Because this was very risky business. That's one of the problems with visions. You don't know whether they come to pass with or without your help/active involvement. Why would mance walk further south? He knows in what area arya should show up so he has to keep tabs in that place. Otherwise how can he know arya doesn't use a diferent route to get to the place of the vision and he misses her? And why would he think that arya would only escape with his help? Neither mel nor jon think of that (read the quote above where it is clear the plan is to find a girl riding near long lake)? Besides the fact that mance has no idea what routes arya would take from winterfell to long lake so he doesn't know if she would ride there while he is going to winterfell. And one big problem is that we know that a short time later alys fullfils mel's profecy and mance wasn't there. Did mance even wait anytime at all near the lake? Or did he ride directly to winterfell and happened to be lucky enough that arya was there? 9 hours ago, Lord Varys said: We know why Mance was looking for the crypts. He thought there was a secret tunnel there which Theon used to sneak into Winterfell. That's it. That is your suposition. We have no idea if that is the only reason why he is looking for the crypts. 9 hours ago, Lord Varys said: It was this connection that seemed to hurt Mel while Rattleshirt burned. Not some kind of mind control device feedback loop. But there is no indication that this connection enslaves the minds of the wearer of the glamor ... considering Mance clearly can do what he wants while wearing the glamor, just as Rattleshirt did when he realized how Stannis and Mel had tricked him, forcing Stannis' people to silence him before he could reveal who he actually was. I did not mean mind control. Just that is clear there is a conection between who is wearing the ruby and mel. So who can say how mel can affect the wearer of the other ruby? Can she send some compulsion? Pain? death? It is hard to deny that the ruby should give mel some control over mance because of this conection. And that it is kind of idiotic that mance can just put and take the ruby establishing or cutting of the conection. There should be more to it. 9 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That was when Mel and Mance still presented Mance as Rattleshirt to Jon. The 'he cannot betray me' routine was an attempt to convince Jon to trust Mance as Rattleshirt. It didn't work. This entire thing goes away after Mel reveals who Rattleshirt actually is. Jon is willing to trust Mance because he knows him. Not because some magical ruby controls him. And you completly missed the point. Mance has several thousands of wildlings north of the wall. If has freedom to leave CB why shouldn't he go north and lead the wildlings south as he intended to do since the beguining? Why would he follow mel and jon's orders when he can be free and the king of the wildlings? 10 hours ago, Lord Varys said: LOL, no. Mance is clearly Stannis/Mel's and later Jon's man. He wants to work with them to save his people from and eventually defeat the Others. He has no other agenda; never had, in fact, as he confessed to Jon when he said that all he wants is to hide behind the Wall with his people. Mance could have easily enough fled CB if he wanted to. The man is fucking Mance Rayder. Remember how he beat up Jon in the practice yard. Nobody knows that he is Mance, so if he hadn't shown off in the yard but instead used the skills he had to escape he could cut his way through a dozen or a score of black brothers to escape wherever he wanted to get ... and that would only be necessary if he wouldn't be able to use his skills to just sneak out of the fortress at night. It is not that CB has walls or gates he would need to avoid. And as a former black brother he would know all worm ways and tunnels in CB. However neither jon or stannis are helping the wildlings. There are 1 thousand wildlings south of the wall and only after mance leaves do we have jon trying to save more wildlings. Don't forget that mance has no idea of jon's deal with tormund. From his perspective allmost all the wildlings are still abandoned north of the wall. And mance not going back north should be proof that mel could harm him using the ruby. Otherwise, as jon and stannis aren't opening the gates to the wildlings why would he follow them? and even more important This is what mance thinks about what you are saying Quote "Whose laws? The laws of Winterfell and King's Landing?" Mance laughed. "When we want laws we'll make our own. You can keep your king's justice too, and your king's taxes. I'm offering you the horn, not our freedom. We will not kneel to you." this isn't the mance you describe in your interpretation. 10 hours ago, Lord Varys said: You mean the story about Bael? So what, that's just a story. There might be a lot of stuff hidden in the crypts of Winterfell but why would Mance be interested in stuff like that? He isn't exactly a collector of Stark bones or Stark relicts as far as we know. Instead, we do know why he was interested in the crypts - he thought there was a secret tunnel there he could use to get 'Arya' out. He could think that there is some hidden relic there that can be used to fight the others. Or the horn of joramun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Winter Rose Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 I never liked Stannis as character and I really hope he dies as Pink Letter suggested. I know he is beloved character, but I find him pretty much big ass. Pink Letter was written by Ramsey and it's obvious something is amiss, but I doubt he's defeated by Stannis that something. Part of me wonders why fanbase just do so much wishful thinking. Just because you want Stannis alive, doesn't mean Martin will make him alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 22 minutes ago, divica said: If you read mel's chapter that is when the plan is formed you see that mance is trying to find where the girl is in the vision. He is asking for what mel sees so that he can know better where to look. So he doesn't have to pay atention to all roads, only those mentioned in the area of the vision. Who cares about any of that? Mance doesn't know where the girl will be when he and his women leaves. He doesn't have Mel with him. We can expect him to have looked for her the way he said ... but obviously he didn't find or else he wouldn't have gone to Winterfell to try to break 'Arya' out of there. Or do you denying that Mance Rayder went to Winterfell to get 'Arya' out of there? 22 minutes ago, divica said: And in regards to the spearwives. Read the quote again. He says that the spearwives will be useful to gain her trust AND to help him in a certain plot. In no way does he connect his ploy to gaining arya's trust or even helping her. From the way he talks it can be completly unrelated. You don't understand - the certain ploy is getting inside Winterfell as Abel, and the women help him to win the trust of Arya. Mance definitely already considered it that he had to get to Winterfell because folks knew that Arya would have been fleeing from Winterfell if the girl on the horse was her. 22 minutes ago, divica said: She would seek refuge at the wall because jon is there. She would certainly be wary of being near random men in the midle of nowhere. And if you look at what men in the middle of nowhere do to women in the story it is something logical. That makes no sense whatsoever since Mance thinking the girl he was looking for was Arya Stark should trust him easily enough if he would tell her he was here looking for her on behalf of Jon Snow. 22 minutes ago, divica said: No. Usually there is a vision and mel takes advantage of knowing what will happen in the future to acomplish something. She seeing something shouldn't be the reason why what she is seeing happens... LOL, but it already has been. Mel saw the death of Robb, Balon and Joffrey and then 'caused them' with the leeches. She also foresaw Stannis being crushed by a guy wearing Renly's armor and tried to avert that outcome ... which led to the vision coming to pass. If Stannis had stayed on Dragonstone, hadn't murdered Renly with Mel's help, his army wouldn't have been crushed on the Blackwater. 22 minutes ago, divica said: Why would mance walk further south? He knows in what area arya should show up so he has to keep tabs in that place. Otherwise how can he know arya doesn't use a diferent route to get to the place of the vision and he misses her? No, he has no idea when she where at what time. All he knows is where the girl in Mel's vision - but this vision didn't come with a time stamp. 22 minutes ago, divica said: And why would he think that arya would only escape with his help? Neither mel nor jon think of that (read the quote above where it is clear the plan is to find a girl riding near long lake)? Besides the fact that mance has no idea what routes arya would take from winterfell to long lake so he doesn't know if she would ride there while he is going to winterfell. Mel and Mance are completely wrong about Long Lake, by the way. Alys Karstark rode from Karhold to Castle Black, and she wouldn't have taken a detour via Long Lake. One look on the map convinces you of that. But I never said Mance wouldn't have gone to Long Lake or looked for the girl there - I'm saying he would have learned on the road that Arya Stark was still at Winterfell about to be married, so to figure out whether she was still there or not he had to go there. 22 minutes ago, divica said: And one big problem is that we know that a short time later alys fullfils mel's profecy and mance wasn't there. Did mance even wait anytime at all near the lake? Or did he ride directly to winterfell and happened to be lucky enough that arya was there? See above. Alys never was at Long Lake. 22 minutes ago, divica said: That is your suposition. We have no idea if that is the only reason why he is looking for the crypts. We don't have any reason to assume Mance had additional motives. For that there would have been actual clues in that direction. 22 minutes ago, divica said: I did not mean mind control. Just that is clear there is a conection between who is wearing the ruby and mel. So who can say how mel can affect the wearer of the other ruby? Can she send some compulsion? Pain? death? It is hard to deny that the ruby should give mel some control over mance because of this conection. And that it is kind of idiotic that mance can just put and take the ruby establishing or cutting of the conection. There should be more to it. But there isn't. The thing is just a glamor. Mel even tells Mance that he should wear the bones so the thing works better. She cannot control it all that well. 22 minutes ago, divica said: And you completly missed the point. Mance has several thousands of wildlings north of the wall. If has freedom to leave CB why shouldn't he go north and lead the wildlings south as he intended to do since the beguining? Why would he follow mel and jon's orders when he can be free and the king of the wildlings? He clearly no longer wants to do that. Else he would have done that. And he no longer is the king of the wildlings. He lost his kingship when he was captured. He was, ultimately, a failure. The wildlings do not follow weaklings. 22 minutes ago, divica said: However neither jon or stannis are helping the wildlings. There are 1 thousand wildlings south of the wall and only after mance leaves do we have jon trying to save more wildlings. Don't forget that mance has no idea of jon's deal with tormund. From his perspective allmost all the wildlings are still abandoned north of the wall. Yet he still doesn't urge anyone to send help to the wildlings beyond the Wall. Not Mel not Jon not Stannis as far as we know. 22 minutes ago, divica said: And mance not going back north should be proof that mel could harm him using the ruby. Otherwise, as jon and stannis aren't opening the gates to the wildlings why would he follow them? and even more important LOL, what? But Mance no longer wears the ruby when he leaves CB. So he should have been able to go north then, right? 22 minutes ago, divica said: This is what mance thinks about what you are saying That was Mance before Stannis broke him and his army. 22 minutes ago, divica said: this isn't the mance you describe in your interpretation. He could think that there is some hidden relic there that can be used to fight the others. Or the horn of joramun. Yes, right, he could also have looked for dragon eggs down there - there are even rumors that there are dragon eggs in the crypt of Winterfell, unlike with the other stuff. But that's not something anyone has to take seriously as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divica Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Who cares about any of that? Mance doesn't know where the girl will be when he and his women leaves. He doesn't have Mel with him. We can expect him to have looked for her the way he said ... but obviously he didn't find or else he wouldn't have gone to Winterfell to try to break 'Arya' out of there. Or do you denying that Mance Rayder went to Winterfell to get 'Arya' out of there? He went to winterfell. He tried to free arya. Was that all he wanted to do in winterfell? Was saving arya his main objective in winterfell? We simply do not know. However, if mance was a free character why would he waste his time going to winterfell just for arya? His orders were to help a girl riding a dying horse. What does he care if she never appears? That would be mel's fault. And everybody should care about mance's thought process. Mel tell's him the area where the girl will appear. And he asks a series of questions about where that place might be. No one ever talks about winterfell. Mance never asks what he should do if he doesn't find the girl there. Everything in the text sugests that in CB mance was planning to go to the place in mel's vision and look for arya. We don't even know if at the time mance asks for the spearwives he knows that arya is in winterfell. And that is important. Besides that as I said earlier, if he leaves the area from mel's vision to go to winterfell then it is vey likely that he would miss arya because he has no idea what route she will take to get to that area. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: You don't understand - the certain ploy is getting inside Winterfell as Abel, and the women help him to win the trust of Arya. Mance definitely already considered it that he had to get to Winterfell because folks knew that Arya would have been fleeing from Winterfell if the girl on the horse was her. Was common knowledge in the NW that arya was going to marry in winterfell? And if he thought he had to go to winterfell he wouldn't care so much about the place in mel's vision. All the conversations about rescuing arya are about finding her near a lake. Neither jon nor mel think that mance might have to go to winterfell to rescue her. So why would mance think that? 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That makes no sense whatsoever since Mance thinking the girl he was looking for was Arya Stark should trust him easily enough if he would tell her he was here looking for her on behalf of Jon Snow. Who would believe a stranger that appears in the middle of nowhere telling you to go with him because your bastard brother somehow knew you would be there and sent him? That sounds suspicious as fuck. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: LOL, but it already has been. Mel saw the death of Robb, Balon and Joffrey and then 'caused them' with the leeches. She also foresaw Stannis being crushed by a guy wearing Renly's armor and tried to avert that outcome ... which led to the vision coming to pass. If Stannis had stayed on Dragonstone, hadn't murdered Renly with Mel's help, his army wouldn't have been crushed on the Blackwater. First, robb, balon and joffrey's death was in no way the consequence of something magical. As far as we know mel knew that they would die and used the leeches to make people think she was powerfull (and she does like to do this several times). If stannis hadn't killed renly he wouldn't even have an army. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: No, he has no idea when she where at what time. All he knows is where the girl in Mel's vision - but this vision didn't come with a time stamp. But he knows that she will pass through that area. He just has to wait. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Mel and Mance are completely wrong about Long Lake, by the way. Alys Karstark rode from Karhold to Castle Black, and she wouldn't have taken a detour via Long Lake. One look on the map convinces you of that. But I never said Mance wouldn't have gone to Long Lake or looked for the girl there - I'm saying he would have learned on the road that Arya Stark was still at Winterfell about to be married, so to figure out whether she was still there or not he had to go there. If you think that alys isn't the girl in grey then the next likely candidate is farya and that would bring a series of interesting problems for stannis. And the long lake is crucial in the vision because it is the one of the few places with a gigantic lake. And if the freys led by a furious hoster come across tycho's party it isn't that weird that they decide to attack and several people of that party die while others can escape due to the weather. And the problem remains. If the obhective was to help a fleeing arya why would mance go to winterfell? He knows that someday she will be fleeing in that direction and he just has to wait. And if that doesn't happen it is mel's fault. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: But there isn't. The thing is just a glamor. Mel even tells Mance that he should wear the bones so the thing works better. She cannot control it all that well. He needs to wear the bones to keep the glamor. But look at this. Quote In the black iron fetter about his wrist, the ruby seemed to pulse. He tapped it with the edge of his blade. The steel made a faint click against the stone. "I feel it when I sleep. Warm against my skin, even through the iron. Soft as a woman's kiss. Your kiss. But sometimes in my dreams it starts to burn, and your lips turn into teeth. Every day I think how easy it would be to pry it out, and every day I don't. Must I wear the bloody bones as well?" Clearly there is something more going on with the ruby. It isn't just a prop for the glamour. You could even say there is a bit of foreshadowing about mance's future... 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: He clearly no longer wants to do that. Else he would have done that. And he no longer is the king of the wildlings. He lost his kingship when he was captured. He was, ultimately, a failure. The wildlings do not follow weaklings. He would still have a lot of followers. And why would mance have changed completly due to 1 defeat and become a kneeler? If the ruby can be used as a threat against him he just can't fo north and resume his role as a wildling leader. Since he became rattleshirt we have no idea of what his true goals are. But it is very unlikely that he doesn't care about the thousands of wildlings north of the wall. He has been working for years to bring them south. People don't quit from something like that easily. And the weeper looks the most promising candidate to bring the wildlings south while keeping them free. So why wouldn't mance help him if he can? 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Yet he still doesn't urge anyone to send help to the wildlings beyond the Wall. Not Mel not Jon not Stannis as far as we know. And between mance quiting his life's work or having a plan to bring the wildlings south that doesn't involve mel, jon or stannis what do you think is most likely? 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: LOL, what? But Mance no longer wears the ruby when he leaves CB. So he should have been able to go north then, right? We don't know. He might wear the ruby but have it hidden under his clothes. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That was Mance before Stannis broke him and his army. Mance is the most legendary character alive in asoiaf at the moment (with the exception of BR). Nobody has faced the adversaries and chalanges he has. We are talking about someone that have been fighting wights and others for years. That joined giants, canibals, wargs and freedom maniacs into an army of 100k people. And a few days in prison broke him? That doesn't make any sense. Someone like mance just doesn't abandon his life's work because he had a defeat. 4 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Yes, right, he could also have looked for dragon eggs down there - there are even rumors that there are dragon eggs in the crypt of Winterfell, unlike with the other stuff. But that's not something anyone has to take seriously as a possibility. The problem is that mance can simply have information that us as readers don't know. We are told that the wildlings know things that other people have forgoten. So who knows what might be in winterfell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lluewhyn Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 19 hours ago, divica said: You have forgotten that ramsay also had several spearwives to torture. And ramsay is very good at torturing people. That is not necessarily correct. We have no indication that Ramsay has any living spearwives, 1 or 2 are dead, and that probably at least one of them (Squirrel) escaped. If any of the rest were unable to escape, they likely died fighting, as the guards are on the back foot reacting to this sudden event and don't necessarily have orders to take them alive (as seen by them killing the ones Holly). Regardless, the Spearwives know less information than Mance so I'm not sure torturing them would produce anything of value. As far as the second, Ramsay is able to torture Theon into a psychological breakdown after a year or so. That makes Theon very compliant, but there's no indication that he volunteers sensitive information out of the blue, such as Ramsay knowing anything about Asha or the Starks. In other words, there's no evidence that Ramsay is good at getting secrets from his torture unless he already knows the questions. With things going down at Winterfell, I also don't think he's going to have the same kind of time to play with Mance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 57 minutes ago, divica said: He went to winterfell. He tried to free arya. Was that all he wanted to do in winterfell? Was saving arya his main objective in winterfell? We simply do not know. However, if mance was a free character why would he waste his time going to winterfell just for arya? His orders were to help a girl riding a dying horse. What does he care if she never appears? That would be mel's fault. We don't know what his orders were since the chapter ends before and concrete orders are given. But what's clear is that Mance knows Melisandre wants him to save Jon Snow's sister and not just any other girl on a dying horse. Mance doesn't view himself as a guy not working with/for Mel. That's clear in her chapter. There is just no reason to assume that Mance had any other agenda at Winterfell than saving Arya. 57 minutes ago, divica said: And everybody should care about mance's thought process. Mel tell's him the area where the girl will appear. And he asks a series of questions about where that place might be. No one ever talks about winterfell. Mance never asks what he should do if he doesn't find the girl there. Everything in the text sugests that in CB mance was planning to go to the place in mel's vision and look for arya. Again, the chapter ends before a proper mission command is given ... and Mance showing up at Winterfell certainly allows for the possibility that Mance is there because the girl he wants to save - Arya Stark - is also there. 57 minutes ago, divica said: Was common knowledge in the NW that arya was going to marry in winterfell? Ah, yes? That's why they conclude Arya is the girl in the vision. Mel tells us she is fleeing from a wedding. And Alys was fleeing from a wedding, too, as it happened. 57 minutes ago, divica said: And if he thought he had to go to winterfell he wouldn't care so much about the place in mel's vision. All the conversations about rescuing arya are about finding her near a lake. Neither jon nor mel think that mance might have to go to winterfell to rescue her. So why would mance think that? Because we can expect that Mance went to the lake and no Arya was there and then he pressed on to Winterfell. I mean, you can to turn this whole thing around and show how ridiculous your idea is by asking why Mance tries to save Arya at Winterfell when your claim is that he went there for another reason and didn't have the mission to save her while she was at Winterfell. If that were the case then why didn't Mance just do what he wanted to do at Winterfell and leave, telling folks back at the Wall (assuming he ever went back there after that) that Arya never fled Winterfell and he didn't help her escape because that wasn't his mission. 57 minutes ago, divica said: Who would believe a stranger that appears in the middle of nowhere telling you to go with him because your bastard brother somehow knew you would be there and sent him? That sounds suspicious as fuck. Not if you want to go to the Wall. But again - who gives a fuck about the girl trusting Mance. She is supposedly on a dying horse, remember? He can capture and overpower her easily enough. By the way - why should a girl on the run trust some women with a man on the streets she doesn't know? They could be evil, too. 57 minutes ago, divica said: First, robb, balon and joffrey's death was in no way the consequence of something magical. As far as we know mel knew that they would die and used the leeches to make people think she was powerfull (and she does like to do this several times). Doesn't change the fact that Stannis apparently bought the leeches thing. So this kind of thing can work. 57 minutes ago, divica said: If stannis hadn't killed renly he wouldn't even have an army. So what? Mel still made that prophecy come to pass. If Stannis had made common cause with Renly it wouldn't have come to pass. 57 minutes ago, divica said: But he knows that she will pass through that area. He just has to wait. But she didn't. 57 minutes ago, divica said: If you think that alys isn't the girl in grey then the next likely candidate is farya and that would bring a series of interesting problems for stannis. And the long lake is crucial in the vision because it is the one of the few places with a gigantic lake. And if the freys led by a furious hoster come across tycho's party it isn't that weird that they decide to attack and several people of that party die while others can escape due to the weather. What? The vision is already fulfilled. It wasn't Jeyne, it was Alys, and she wasn't at Long Lake. Melisandre and Mance are both not experts on the geography of the North. 57 minutes ago, divica said: And the problem remains. If the obhective was to help a fleeing arya why would mance go to winterfell? He knows that someday she will be fleeing in that direction and he just has to wait. And if that doesn't happen it is mel's fault. No, it might be his fault, because he never helped her and thus she didn't escape. I'm pretty sure that's going to be the explanation Mance will give when asked why the hell he went to Winterfell. Possibly combined with some stuff he learned about Ramsay on the road which convinced him that he didn't want Jon's sister to suffer longer than she had to at the hands of that monster. 57 minutes ago, divica said: He needs to wear the bones to keep the glamor. But look at this. Clearly there is something more going on with the ruby. It isn't just a prop for the glamour. You could even say there is a bit of foreshadowing about mance's future... Nobody said wearing a glamor was a pleasant thing. Especially not one you didn't make yourself. 57 minutes ago, divica said: He would still have a lot of followers. And why would mance have changed completly due to 1 defeat and become a kneeler? If the ruby can be used as a threat against him he just can't fo north and resume his role as a wildling leader. Folks think he is dead. He no longer has any followers. And he cannot go to wildling meeting place 101 to tell everybody he faked his death. 57 minutes ago, divica said: Since he became rattleshirt we have no idea of what his true goals are. But it is very unlikely that he doesn't care about the thousands of wildlings north of the wall. He has been working for years to bring them south. People don't quit from something like that easily. And the weeper looks the most promising candidate to bring the wildlings south while keeping them free. So why wouldn't mance help him if he can? Because he actually stated that he it was very bad from them (him included) if the wildlings turned to the Weeper. You are ignoring the text. 57 minutes ago, divica said: And between mance quiting his life's work or having a plan to bring the wildlings south that doesn't involve mel, jon or stannis what do you think is most likely? I think Mance works with Mel and Stannis and Jon because he thinks that's his best option to defeat the Others. 57 minutes ago, divica said: We don't know. He might wear the ruby but have it hidden under his clothes. He doesn't wear it or else he would look like Rattleshirt. 57 minutes ago, divica said: Mance is the most legendary character alive in asoiaf at the moment (with the exception of BR). Nobody has faced the adversaries and chalanges he has. We are talking about someone that have been fighting wights and others for years. That joined giants, canibals, wargs and freedom maniacs into an army of 100k people. And a few days in prison broke him? That doesn't make any sense. Someone like mance just doesn't abandon his life's work because he had a defeat. I meant that it broke Mance the myth, not Mance the man. His time as king is over after that. 57 minutes ago, divica said: The problem is that mance can simply have information that us as readers don't know. We are told that the wildlings know things that other people have forgoten. So who knows what might be in winterfell? Why should some wildling king - and one who grew up at the Wall - know secret stuff about Winterfell? That's just wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divica Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: We don't know what his orders were since the chapter ends before and concrete orders are given. But what's clear is that Mance knows Melisandre wants him to save Jon Snow's sister and not just any other girl on a dying horse. Mance doesn't view himself as a guy not working with/for Mel. That's clear in her chapter. There is just no reason to assume that Mance had any other agenda at Winterfell than saving Arya. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Again, the chapter ends before a proper mission command is given ... and Mance showing up at Winterfell certainly allows for the possibility that Mance is there because the girl he wants to save - Arya Stark - is also there. Look at this Quote Gods of my fathers, protect these men. And Arya too, my little sister, wherever she might be. I pray you, let Mance find her and bring her safe to me Quote A golden dawn was breaking in the east, but behind Lady Melisandre's window in the King's Tower a reddish light still flickered. Does she never sleep? What game are you playing, priestess? Did you have some other task for Mance? Quote "And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show? "The same, I fear. Only snow." Quote "Even lord commanders." Mance Rayder and his spearwives had not returned, and Jon could not help but wonder whether the red woman had lied of a purpose. Is she playing her own game? Quote He wondered where Mance was now. Did he ever find you, little sister? Or were you just a ploy he used so I would set him free? Can we agree that jon thinks that arya is somewhere in the north that isn't winterfell and that mance would be looking for her in the wildness? And can we agree that if mel thought mance was going to winterfell she would have said so because she wanted jon to trust her? So she probably doesn't know where he is either. Therefore there was no discussion or orders or plans about mance going to winterfell. Neither jon or mel ever think that mance and arya might still be at winterfell. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Because we can expect that Mance went to the lake and no Arya was there and then he pressed on to Winterfell. I mean, you can to turn this whole thing around and show how ridiculous your idea is by asking why Mance tries to save Arya at Winterfell when your claim is that he went there for another reason and didn't have the mission to save her while she was at Winterfell. If that were the case then why didn't Mance just do what he wanted to do at Winterfell and leave, telling folks back at the Wall (assuming he ever went back there after that) that Arya never fled Winterfell and he didn't help her escape because that wasn't his mission. I think he wanted to acomplish 2 things. When he went south he heard that arya was still in winterfell and decided to save her and do his business at winterfell at the same time. But I can agree that he went to winterfell to save arya and repay jon for saving his son and any other debpt I might have forgoten (I think jon also saves mance from stannis but I am not sure). However, it doesn't invalidate that mance planed to use the spear wives to acomplish something unrelated to arya while he is free from the NW. He may even have done it before reaching winterfell. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Not if you want to go to the Wall. But again - who gives a fuck about the girl trusting Mance. She is supposedly on a dying horse, remember? He can capture and overpower her easily enough. By the way - why should a girl on the run trust some women with a man on the streets she doesn't know? They could be evil, too. They can, but at the very least wouldn't be interested in raping her. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: What? The vision is already fulfilled. It wasn't Jeyne, it was Alys, and she wasn't at Long Lake. Melisandre and Mance are both not experts on the geography of the North. They may not be experts on the geography of the north, but Quote "If your stiff-necked lord commander will allow it. Did your fires show you where to find this girl?" "I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever." Still water, deep and blue that goes on forever clearly indicates a huge lake. And if you check the map of the north there are only 3 big lakes in the north. So either you assume that alys had a weird route going to CB and went near long lake or you think that the girl in grey is another person (the most likely being farya). You simply need some girl in grey riding near a huge lake. Wether it is long lake or one of the other 2 is open for debate, but the girl has to pass near it! And I think it would be very grrm if some chapters after stannis signing the deal with the IB we find out that tycho's party was atacked and tycho killed and the document destroyed (could the heads of stannis friends put on exibition in winterfell be related to tycho?). 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: No, it might be his fault, because he never helped her and thus she didn't escape. I'm pretty sure that's going to be the explanation Mance will give when asked why the hell he went to Winterfell. Possibly combined with some stuff he learned about Ramsay on the road which convinced him that he didn't want Jon's sister to suffer longer than she had to at the hands of that monster. I can more or less agree with this. To me mance would be thinking about getting even with jon more than anything. Because from his perspective ramsay isn't a big monster... He is hardly worse than the weeper for example. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Nobody said wearing a glamor was a pleasant thing. Especially not one you didn't make yourself. But the door is open for the ruby to have more powers than simply cast a glamor. After all mance fears it will eat him... 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Folks think he is dead. He no longer has any followers. And he cannot go to wildling meeting place 101 to tell everybody he faked his death. Actually he can. After all val was able to find tormund pretty easily. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Because he actually stated that he it was very bad from them (him included) if the wildlings turned to the Weeper. You are ignoring the text. No. He thought it would be very bad for the people living in CB and defending the wall if it was the weeper. However mance is free and no longer living in CB or defending the wall. And mance never liked crows or kneelers. I doubt he would shed a tear if they all died. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: I think Mance works with Mel and Stannis and Jon because he thinks that's his best option to defeat the Others. But king mance wanted to go south. He didn't want to man the wall and defeat the others. There is no way mance is more worried about defeating the others than saving as many wildlings as he can. THAT was his life's goal. If all wildlings die why would mance even bother fighting the others? 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: He doesn't wear it or else he would look like Rattleshirt. And doesn't he look like rattleshirt? How do you know if he doesn't have rattleshirt's phisical apearance? And how do you know that without the bone armor the ruby still works as a glamor? 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Why should some wildling king - and one who grew up at the Wall - know secret stuff about Winterfell? That's just wishful thinking. No. There just needs to be a legend among the wildlings that some people believe some ancient stark king was buried with the horn of joramun. And as the horn wasn't where most wildlings believed maybe mance started to believe it was in winterfell. 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Orion2 Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 So when Jon gets the letter he says "no, there is truth here" or something like that. I took that to mean that whoever is writing the letter knows the truth, and therefore it is likely that Ramsey is telling the truth and all those things have happened. What we're discussing here is whether someone else who knows certain of those truths, namely the spearwives number, stannis's swords qualities and that Mance is still alive wrote the letter. So just because Jon thinks Ramsey wrote it doesn't necessarily mean Ramsey wrote it. It could be someone else who knows these things. The only other person who knows these things is mance, and possible whoever hes told, which could be Ramsey, which opens up the possibility of the part about stannises host being smashed being the false part. Because we see that stannises host hasn't been smashed in the beginning of winds, and it just feels chronologically wrong for the beginning of winds to be so far behind the end of dance, especially when the two story lines are interwoven. The other possibility is that Wyman and Mance are cooperating, because mance came in with wymans host and they have very similar goals in some areas. To me it also just feel thematically correct. The question is why tf would anyone write that other than Ramsey. Its dumb as hell. Why not just send Jon a normal frickin letter. If anyone knows plz tell me I guess a possibility is that whomstsoever is in winterfell is in desperate need of help, and knows that stannis will be smashed by roose, and doesn't think Jon will break his vows on a request and so has to provoke him Or it could just be GRRM saying, haha look I just killed your favorite character, things have consequences. Or Jon isn't dead. Which would be great. Cause Jon keeps getting these calls to protect people, such as: Sam, Gilly, Alys, Arya, probably some other people..anyway. Theres also the quote from Gilly about "the king protects people" at crasters when she's asking for Jon to take her, and Jons like: "No fuck you I'm the kings brother not the king I hate myself ahhhhhhh, why is the author making me go through all this conflict before he lets me be king and help people like I wanna." And then Dany is like "why do kings exist except to help those who can't help themselves" but Mormonts like "that axe is named answered prayer fuck you" and so there's definetly a theme there of Jons gonna be king, but is he allowed to be???? and for some reason George decide to torture us for at least 10 years before telling us. Like he could have just ended dance with the second to last Jon chapter, but no, he had to be an ahole. So I see this as the turning point for Jon, either he survives and he is Le King, or for some reason thematically hes not allowed to and is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion2 Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 I was kinda done after writing this^^ but I would point out that it seems to me that a lot pf things are lined up for Jon to be King rn, so Imma go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divica Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Orion2 said: So when Jon gets the letter he says "no, there is truth here" or something like that. I took that to mean that whoever is writing the letter knows the truth, and therefore it is likely that Ramsey is telling the truth and all those things have happened. What we're discussing here is whether someone else who knows certain of those truths, namely the spearwives number, stannis's swords qualities and that Mance is still alive wrote the letter. So just because Jon thinks Ramsey wrote it doesn't necessarily mean Ramsey wrote it. It could be someone else who knows these things. The only other person who knows these things is mance, and possible whoever hes told, which could be Ramsey, which opens up the possibility of the part about stannises host being smashed being the false part. Because we see that stannises host hasn't been smashed in the beginning of winds, and it just feels chronologically wrong for the beginning of winds to be so far behind the end of dance, especially when the two story lines are interwoven. The other possibility is that Wyman and Mance are cooperating, because mance came in with wymans host and they have very similar goals in some areas. To me it also just feel thematically correct. The question is why tf would anyone write that other than Ramsey. Its dumb as hell. Why not just send Jon a normal frickin letter. If anyone knows plz tell me I guess a possibility is that whomstsoever is in winterfell is in desperate need of help, and knows that stannis will be smashed by roose, and doesn't think Jon will break his vows on a request and so has to provoke him Or it could just be GRRM saying, haha look I just killed your favorite character, things have consequences. Or Jon isn't dead. Which would be great. Cause Jon keeps getting these calls to protect people, such as: Sam, Gilly, Alys, Arya, probably some other people..anyway. Theres also the quote from Gilly about "the king protects people" at crasters when she's asking for Jon to take her, and Jons like: "No fuck you I'm the kings brother not the king I hate myself ahhhhhhh, why is the author making me go through all this conflict before he lets me be king and help people like I wanna." And then Dany is like "why do kings exist except to help those who can't help themselves" but Mormonts like "that axe is named answered prayer fuck you" and so there's definetly a theme there of Jons gonna be king, but is he allowed to be???? and for some reason George decide to torture us for at least 10 years before telling us. Like he could have just ended dance with the second to last Jon chapter, but no, he had to be an ahole. So I see this as the turning point for Jon, either he survives and he is Le King, or for some reason thematically hes not allowed to and is dead. Some things. 1) It is highly unlikely that anyone knows that there are 4k wildlings in CB because they arrived pretty recently. 2) By paiting the situation so grim the PL isn't asking for help but creating chaos in the NW. After all the LC is disobeying the boltons that have just become the supreme power in the north. 3) If mance wrote the letter the best reason I can think of is because he wanted to destabilize the NW so that the wildlings led by the weeper can make a new attempt at crossing the wall 4) You have to divide 2 types of information in the PL. Information about what is happening inside Winterfell and information about what is happening outside winterfell. And information about the outside of winterfell can be wrong because stannis may have fooled the boltons. So despite the person writing the PL thinking that he is writing the truth some of its contents may be false. 5) Besides mance the spearwives would also know almost everything written in the letter. And any soldier from stannis camp would also know somethings. So a spearwive+soldier together would be enough sources of information. 6) Mance didn't arrive with the maderleys. Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. He arrived after them. 7) The timeline described in the PL doesn't have to be true. The sender might just want to create chaos for jon and hope the NW would turn against him. That someone would try to capture the people asked in the PL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion2 Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 uhuh @divica Ok soooo, no. It doesn't really matter who told Ramsey/Roose about all that. The main part is the thematic one, which is, is Jon going to be king, based on about a thousand different variables which I don't feel like writing about and definetly don't understand. It doesn't really matter who told, the question is just is the pink letter a ruse or not. Ohhhh shit I just had an idea. Melisandre totally could have made Mance send the letter with the ruby. What a bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, divica said: Look at this Can we agree that jon thinks that arya is somewhere in the north that isn't winterfell and that mance would be looking for her in the wildness? And can we agree that if mel thought mance was going to winterfell she would have said so because she wanted jon to trust her? So she probably doesn't know where he is either. Therefore there was no discussion or orders or plans about mance going to winterfell. Neither jon or mel ever think that mance and arya might still be at winterfell. No, we don't agree about any of this because neither of those things indicates what you say it does. Jon and Mel both knew Arya Stark was brought to Winterfell to marry Ramsay Bolton. That is not in doubt. Jon has been told she was fleeing him, so he thinks she may be somewhere else, he hopes she may be somewhere else ... but he doesn't know where she is. And he doesn't believe Mance or Mel after Alys' arrival because he thinks they may have fooled him completely with their girl story. 14 minutes ago, divica said: I think he wanted to acomplish 2 things. When he went south he heard that arya was still in winterfell and decided to save her and do his business at winterfell at the same time. But you do not have any evidence or reason to believe that he wanted to something else at Winterfell. All you cite is the certain ploy line and Mance's interest in the crypts which is easily explained within the context of the story. There are no other clues. 14 minutes ago, divica said: But I can agree that he went to winterfell to save arya and repay jon for saving his son and any other debpt I might have forgoten (I think jon also saves mance from stannis but I am not sure). However, it doesn't invalidate that mance planed to use the spear wives to acomplish something unrelated to arya while he is free from the NW. He may even have done it before reaching winterfell. Him doing mystery stuff before he got to Winterfell is even weirder to assume since there is no indication that he did anything before getting to Winterfell. Why not just assume most relevant stuff in those novels happens in-between chapters? That way you can turn the story completely around. Mance doesn't repay Jon a debt, he is his man now, according to his own words. Repeatedly. And Mance Rayder may be many things but he isn't a liar. Jon also didn't save Mance from Stannis, Mance and Stannis saved Mance from Stannis by convincing Stannis not to burn Mance. 14 minutes ago, divica said: They may not be experts on the geography of the north, but Still water, deep and blue that goes on forever clearly indicates a huge lake. And if you check the map of the north there are only 3 big lakes in the north. So either you assume that alys had a weird route going to CB and went near long lake or you think that the girl in grey is another person (the most likely being farya). You simply need some girl in grey riding near a huge lake. Wether it is long lake or one of the other 2 is open for debate, but the girl has to pass near it! That would depend on the perspective ... any lake can look it is going to go on forever depending how you look at it. And Mel saw an image of that lake from a certain perspective. But perhaps Alys really did take a detour to Long Lake. Who knows? However, if she did then Mance clearly didn't catch her there meaning the interpretation of his mission being only to go to Long Lake and wait for her there makes no sense because he clearly didn't wait for her there and missed her ... but still went to Winterfell to save Arya, so he stayed true to his mission. And you are not exactly consistent - when I said the vision could come true by ways of Mance freeing Jeyne and him freeing her because of that belief you argued against that. But now you expect it to come true in the next book when it effectively already came true with Alys. That doesn't make much sense. 14 minutes ago, divica said: I can more or less agree with this. To me mance would be thinking about getting even with jon more than anything. Because from his perspective ramsay isn't a big monster... He is hardly worse than the weeper for example. Mance would also not marry his daughter to the Weeper ... just as Tywin would never marry Cersei to Gregor or Stannis Shireen to Clayton Suggs or Richard Horpe. 14 minutes ago, divica said: But the door is open for the ruby to have more powers than simply cast a glamor. After all mance fears it will eat him... All that tells us is that it isn't pleasant to wear a glamor. It is also quite clear why Rattleshirt-Mance was completely at Mel's mercy if you think about it. She could reveal his true identity at any minute, could deactivate the glamor so people see who the man actually is ... and that would then mean that he is killed for good. 14 minutes ago, divica said: Actually he can. After all val was able to find tormund pretty easily. It took some time. She knew where to look, one imagines, but finding some people isn't the same as finding many. And Val could offer Tormund and his people something - Mance would not be able to do that. What he offered the wildlings failed, they would not trust him again. 14 minutes ago, divica said: No. He thought it would be very bad for the people living in CB and defending the wall if it was the weeper. However mance is free and no longer living in CB or defending the wall. And mance never liked crows or kneelers. I doubt he would shed a tear if they all died. This is what Mance says. You are claiming here is lying there without having any evidence to back that up: Quote "Cutting out the eyes, that's the Weeper's work. The best crow's a blind crow, he likes to say. Sometimes I think he'd like to cut out his own eyes, the way they're always watering and itching. Snow's been assuming the free folk would turn to Tormund to lead them, because that's what he would do. He liked Tormund, and the old fraud liked him too. If it's the Weeper, though … that's not good. Not for him, and not for us." Mance was a kneeler himself most of his life, by the way. He doesn't hate them. And he clearly never had the intention to kill them all. 14 minutes ago, divica said: But king mance wanted to go south. He didn't want to man the wall and defeat the others. There is no way mance is more worried about defeating the others than saving as many wildlings as he can. THAT was his life's goal. If all wildlings die why would mance even bother fighting the others? But this goal he can no longer accomplish. And he may have already realized that they have to defend the Wall against the Others or all will die. Mance was a man of the Night's Watch before he turned wildling. Besides, the only hope how to get his people to safety is now with Stannis and Jon, not against them. He must know that even if his people invaded the North they would eventually be crushed. The women and children and old folk cannot hope to survive winter in a foreign land without food and shelter. 14 minutes ago, divica said: And doesn't he look like rattleshirt? How do you know if he doesn't have rattleshirt's phisical apearance? Because Abel looks like Mance in Winterfell and not like Rattleshirt. 14 minutes ago, divica said: And how do you know that without the bone armor the ruby still works as a glamor? Because it already did at CB. Not as well as it worked when he also wore the bones, but well enough to fool people, anyway. For instance, when Mance battles Jon he doesn't wear the bones. 14 minutes ago, divica said: No. There just needs to be a legend among the wildlings that some people believe some ancient stark king was buried with the horn of joramun. And as the horn wasn't where most wildlings believed maybe mance started to believe it was in winterfell. Yes, right, because there is any indication that that horn is in Winterfell of all places. There isn't, that's just wishful thinking. There is also no reason to believe Mance would even want that horn which can bring down the Wall. Remember, he never wanted to bring down the Wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orion2 Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 I..I'm so glad ive made such an interesting discussion for y'all @Lord Varys @divica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 General observation: I went back to Mel's vision - by the time of her chapter it has been some time since she saw the girl on the dying horse. She first mentions it in the previous Jon chapter and tries to find her again in her own chapter because she wants to give Jon more information on Arya. When she describes her vision to Mance she talks about the place where she saw Alys earlier in the vision she had previously. This whole thing isn't a recent vision of Alys, meaning the idea that Mance could find Arya near Long Lake would be mistaken. That may have worked if Mance had been sent back when Mel first had the vision. Also, it may be that Mel is mistaken about the Alys vision in general. She thinks it is Arya but the Boltons aren't even at Winterfell yet when Mel has that vision - Jon just receives a letter from Ramsay sent from Barrowton in that same chapter when Mel first tells him about the Alys vision. This is why Mel thinks the vision is a vision of the future when in fact it may be a vision of the present since Alys being at Long Lake in the Jon chapter before the Mel chapter make sense in context of her arriving at CB in a Jon chapter much later. Technically, we should expect that Mance was on his way to Barrowton to find Arya there, because the letter Ramsay sent to Jon announcing his marriage to Arya Stark had the wedding still scheduled at Barrowton. That only changes when Roose finds out that Stannis has freed Deepwood and decides to move the wedding at Winterfell. But Mance clearly did not wait for Alys at Long Lake because he is already at Winterfell long before Alys Karstark shows up at the Wall. Which means we are back to my scenario - namely, that Mance decided he wanted to free Arya to bring the vision about Mel saw, and didn't think he was the guy just picking her up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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