Lemongate and R+L=D

[Willam Stark]

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

This did not happen in the first year of their marriage.  At least, the text certainly does not say so.

The ride to Winterfell happened in the first year of their marriage, their meeting at Winterfell with Jon and his wetnurse ended the first year.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

The Sack

Put an end to Robert's Rebellion.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

the lifting of the Siege both take place after that.  And the TOJ incident takes place some time after that.

Not parts of the Rebellion, those events happened before Ned comes back to Winterfell with Jon and his wetnurse, then meet Catelyn and Robb again to complete the "year apart".

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Or, you know, they could just wait until the baby is a little older.

They could but it's not what has happened.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

But more literally, a "year come" means New Years Day and that same year "gone" means the following New Years Eve.

This is a different case when it's about a specific date, you have to calculate the time difference between the chosen date and the current time.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Desperate for what?

Fit your theory to the timeline of events we know.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

How does this even help me?

It will help you to learn your maths.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

2021 -2 = 2019.  Nonetheless there is only one year that "comes and goes" between June 2019 and June 2021, and that year is the year 2020.

I'm quoting myself:

"This is a different case when it's about a specific date, you have to calculate the time difference between the chosen date and the current time."

Two years had come and gone in your example.

57 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

You're just pretending not to understanding, and only embarrassing yourself.

I understand what you've said, I'm just saying that you're wrong. Your interpretation is only valid when there is no specific date, otherwise you "have to calculate the time difference between the chosen date and the current time." (again). You are embarrassing yourself, stop putting the things you do on me, it's not the first time you're doing that.

[Mister Smikes]

7 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

The rode to Winterfell happened in the first year of their marriage, their meeting at Winterfell with Jon and his wetnurse ended the first year.

The text does not say that.

[Willam Stark]

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

The text does not say that.

Looks like you don't have anything to add, don't bother quoting me again.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Willam Stark said:

Looks like you don't have anything to add, don't bother quoting me again.

"It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage [1], to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart [2], Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles. And if his seed quickened, she expected [3]he would see to the child's needs.

He did more [4] than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him 'son' for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last [5], and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."

 

[1]  This is when Cat first hears that Ned had fathered a child.

[2]  Cat, thinking back on "that year", the year preceding the initial news and her initial reaction, and explaining why she is not upset.

[3]  Now Cat, from the point she hears the news, looks forward to the future.  She expects that Ned will care for the child.

[4]  New paragraph.  Now time has moved forward, and the reality turns out to be different from Cat's expectations. 

[5]  Identifies the new time setting; at some indefinite point after the end of the "wars".   Do the "wars" include the taking of Dragonstone?

[Willam Stark]

7 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

[1]  This is when Cat first hears that Ned had fathered a child.

[2]  Cat, thinking back on "that year", the year preceding the initial news and her initial reaction, and explaining why she is not upset.

This refers to the first year of their marriage, they were separated in that same year.

12 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

[3]  Now Cat looks forward to the future.  She expects that Ned will care for the child.

[4]  New paragraph.  Now time has moved forward, and the reality turns out to be different from Cat's expectations. 

Nothing to add here.

13 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

[5]  Identifies the new time setting; at some indefinite point after the end of the "wars".   

Approximately near the end of their first year of marriage. Why ? Because they got married during the rebellion and they have been separated for a year, the first year of their marriage. If you add Ned PoV, JonCon PoV, Yandel's book TWOIAF you have a much bigger picture and you can fill the blanks, this is what I've done. In doing so, we learn that a large part of the Rebellion has happened during the first year of their marriage and ended before the end of their first year of marriage. At this stage it's simple deduction: When did Ned lift the siege of Storm's End? When was he involved in ToJ's events? When did he ride to Starfall? When did he return back to Winterfell with Jon? When did he meet Catelyn again and Robb? Is it before or after the end of the first year of their marriage?

If it is before, their separation would have lasted less than one year, if it's after it would have lasted more than one year. In both cases, this would contradicts the fact that they have spent the first year of their mariage apart, it would be more or less and without proper contradictory elements there is no reason to reject it. Those events could only have occured between the end of the Rebellion and the end of their first year of marriage moreover there is a blank at this period. When they met again at Winterfell, it ended their first year of marriage in which they were separated and began the second year in which they are reunited in the beginning.

This should be clear now.

[Mister Smikes]

25 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Approximately near the end of their first year of marriage. Why ? Because they got married during the rebellion and they have been separated for a year, the first year of their marriage.

This applies to the time when she first hears the news of Jon's bastard.

It does not (at least not necessarily) apply to the next paragraph, when the wars are finally over and Ned, Jon and Cat arrive at Winterfell.

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If it is before, their separation would have lasted less than one year, if it's after it would have lasted more than one year. In both cases, this would contradicts the fact that they have spent the first year of their mariage apart, it would be more or less and without proper contradictory elements there is no reason to reject it.

There is no contradiction between (1) they spent the first year of the marriage apart; and (2) they spent the second year of their marriage, or part of it, apart.

That is especially true in this context.  Cat is describing a point, near the end of the first year of their marriage, when she first learns that Ned has fathered a bastard.  She is thinking back over the previous year, and explaining why the news does not upset her.  She is not referring to the future at all.

The following paragraph moves on to a future time period.

 

[Willam Stark]

5 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It does not (at least not necessarily) apply to the next paragraph, when the wars are finally over and Ned, Jon and Cat arrive at Winterfell.

Yes it does, since they married during the Rebellion and it lasted less than one year, there is time left.

8 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is no contradiction between (1) they spent the first year of the marriage apart; and (2) they spent the second year of their marriage, or part of it, apart.

Answer to these questions:

"When did Ned lift the siege of Storm's End? When was he involved in ToJ's events? When did he ride to Starfall? When did he return back to Winterfell with Jon? When did he meet Catelyn again and Robb? Is it before or after the end of the first year of their marriage?"

[Mister Smikes]

31 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Yes it does, since they married during the Rebellion and it lasted less than one year, there is time left.

The rebellion "raged" for less than a year up until the point of the Sack.  If almost a year had passed from the marriage until Cat heard the news of Ned's bastard, then plausibly the Sack of KL had already occurred.

This argument is not compelling for events following the Sack.  And the more time passes after the Sack, the less compelling it becomes.

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Answer to these questions:

Not sure why I should.  But fine.  I'll try to be a sport.

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"When did Ned lift the siege of Storm's End?

Don't know.  Plausibly, a month or more after the Sack.

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When was he involved in ToJ's events?

Don't know.  Plausibly, up to several months after the lifting of the Siege of Storm's End.

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When did he ride to Starfall?

Dunno.  After the TOJ incident, obviously.

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When did he return back to Winterfell with Jon?

Dunno.  But after he rode to Starfall, obviously.

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When did he meet Catelyn again and Robb?

Dunno.  After he returned to Winterfell with Jon.

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Is it before or after the end of the first year of their marriage?"

Pretty much all of these things could have occurred after the first year of their marriage.  And is increasingly likely to have done so with each succeeding question.    The return to Winterfell, in my view, was most likely quite a few months after the end of the first year of the marriage.

Maybe you should start a "Robert's Rebellion Timeline" thread.

[Willam Stark]

7 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The rebellion "raged" for less than a year up until the point of the Sack.

The Sack ended the Rebellion.

7 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

If almost a year had passed from the marriage until Cat heard the news of Ned's bastard, then plausibly the Sack of KL had already occurred.

Yes it did.

7 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

This argument is not compelling for events following the Sack.  And the more time passes after the Sack, the less compelling it becomes.

No you're just unable to establish the timeline of events, as the succession of "don't know" in your post suggests.

7 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

After he returned to Winterfell with Jon.

You've got it all right for now, the contradiction starts after this quote.

7 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Pretty much all of these things could have occurred after the first year of their marriage.  And is increasingly likely to have done so with each succeeding question.    The return to Winterfell, in my view, was most likely quite a few months after the end of the first year of the marriage.

Nope, not possible. Ned came back to Winterfell before Catelyn:

 

"He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."

 

Jon and his wet nurse couldn't have "already taken up residence" before Ned brought him to Winterfell, thus Ned was there with Jon when he met again Catelyn and Robb. The events we talked about already happened:

 

""That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes."

 

If Ned met again Catelyn "after he returned to Winterfell with Jon." as you said then the events we talked about must have happened before the end of their first year of marriage, otherwise you contradict yourself. Re-read this part of my post slowly before answering, we are almost done but I know you'll try to figure something out, a far-fetched alternative as usual but maybe you'll positively surprise me.

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

No you're just unable to establish the timeline of events, as the succession of "don't know" in your post suggests.

So what?  I haven't seen your Robert's Rebellion timeline yet either.  Start your own thread, with a proposed hypothetical timeline, providing dates for all major events.  Be sporting enough to do that, and then maybe I'll submit my own hypothetical timeline as well.  Don't just scold me for being honest about how little we know about Robert's Rebellion

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You've got it all right for now, the contradiction starts after this quote.

What contradiction?

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Nope, not possible. Ned came back to Winterfell before Catelyn:

So what?  Both these things probably took place after the end of the first year of their marriage.  Where's the contradiction?

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"He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."

Jon and his wet nurse couldn't have "already taken up residence" before Ned brought him to Winterfell, thus Ned was there with Jon when he met again Catelyn and Robb. The events we talked about already happened:

So what?  Catelyn learns that Ned has sired a bastard on campaign. THEN the second year of their marriage begins.  THEN Ned brought his bastard home with him and called him "son" for all the North to see.  THEN, Catelyn rode to Winterfell.  WTF is the problem?  

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""That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes."

If Ned met again Catelyn "after he returned to Winterfell with Jon." as you said then the events we talked about must have happened before the end of their first year of marriage, otherwise you contradict yourself.

WTF are you talking about?  

Maybe you are assuming Cat could not have first heard about Ned siring a bastard until after the TOJ incident?  Is that it?  Because you assume that Jon was the baby born at the time of the TOJ incident?  Are we right back to "circular argument"?

Plausible Order of Events:  (1) Sack occurs and "rebellion" ends (but the "wars" continue); (2) Cat learns (probably via Raven) that Ned has sired a bastard on campaign; (3) Ned lifts the siege of Storms End; (4) second year of marriage begins; (5) TOJ incident occurs; (5) Visit to Starfall; (6) Ned (probably) stops at Riverrun on his way North; (7) Ned stops at Barrowtown on his way North to return Dustin's horse; (8)  Ned reaches Winterfell; Jon and his wetnurse are installed; ((9) Fall of Dragonstone and "wars" are over at last: (10) Robb and Catelyn travel North to Winterfell.  

Where's the problem?  Where's the contradiction?

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Re-read this part of my post slowly before answering, we are almost done

I sure hope so.  Please stop throwing the same quotes at me while accusing me of contradicting myself.  Identify the contradiction.  What one thing I said contradicts what other thing I said?

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but I know you'll try to figure something out, a far-fetched alternative as usual but maybe you'll positively surprise me.

I have nothing new to give you.  Something is missing on your end.

[Mourning Star]

On 10/25/2021 at 8:30 PM, EggBlue said:

so they had TWO secret kids?!! HOW? how many dragon heads did Rhaegar want?

 

I was starting to like this theory as I was following it  ... so some questions since it's fun..

The exact same way Elia had two kids? There must be another...

If Lyanna disappeared because she got pregnant at the Tourney of Harrenhall (which is always the explanation that made the most sense), then there was clearly too much time for her to die in pregnancy after the end of the war when Ned found her at the Tower of Joy, but there is enough time for her to have gotten pregnant twice.

More importantly, it explains why the Kingsguard would remain at the Tower of Joy after Rhaegar left, Jon was already born (and the child would already have to have been born male to be the clear heir).

But the best evidence in my opinion, isn't the lemon tree, the missing bones of Ned's companions, the lies in the sotries of her past Dany has been told, the visions of the House of the Undying, or the plethora of wolf/stark symbolism around Dany, but Ned's own description of what he would do with a child who's hair/eye color would cause Robert to hate and hunt them.

"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."
"Exile," she said. "A bitter cup to drink from."
"A sweeter cup than your father served Rhaegar's children," Ned said, "and kinder than you deserve. Your father and your brothers would do well to go with you. Lord Tywin's gold will buy you comfort and hire swords to keep you safe. You shall need them. I promise you, no matter where you flee, Robert's wrath will follow you, to the back of beyond if need be."

[Mourning Star]

On 10/27/2021 at 5:03 PM, Willam Stark said:

If you add Ned PoV, JonCon PoV, Yandel's book TWOIAF you have a much bigger picture and you can fill the blanks, this is what I've done. In doing so, we learn that a large part of the Rebellion has happened during the first year of their marriage and ended before the end of their first year of marriage.

I don't think we can know this. You are making a lot of assumptions and stating them as fact.

Not only are the timeframes unclear ("a year" is almost certainly not exact), but even determining the end of the war is unclear. However, the war did NOT end with the sack, at least from Ned's perspective.

"I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

6 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

But the best evidence in my opinion, isn't the lemon tree, the missing bones of Ned's companions, the lies in the sotries of her past Dany has been told, the visions of the House of the Undying, or the plethora of wolf/stark symbolism around Dany, but Ned's own description of what he would do with a child who's hair/eye color would cause Robert to hate and hunt them.

"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."
"Exile," she said. "A bitter cup to drink from."
"A sweeter cup than your father served Rhaegar's children," Ned said, "and kinder than you deserve. Your father and your brothers would do well to go with you. Lord Tywin's gold will buy you comfort and hire swords to keep you safe. You shall need them. I promise you, no matter where you flee, Robert's wrath will follow you, to the back of beyond if need be."

This doesn't mean anything. Exile is an option and a ship to the Free Cities because it is the only place to go if you are exiled? And the part of the quote where he says a sweeter cup than your father served Rhaegar's children is because Ned viewed the murder of Rhaegar's children as a complete atrocity. Your later post provides me the evidence for it.

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Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

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This time, Ned resolved to keep his temper. "Your Grace, the girl is scarcely more than a child. You are no Tywin Lannister, to slaughter innocents." It was said that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords. The boy had been no more than a babe in arms, yet Lord Tywin's soldiers had torn him from his mother's breast and dashed his head against a wall.

Nonetheless," Ned said, "the murder of children … it would be vile … unspeakable …"

It's not because Ned is remembering sending Daenerys to the Free Cities(which is contradicted by @Mister Smikes earlier statement), it's because Ned is a simply a decent person. 

[EggBlue]

7 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

But the best evidence in my opinion, isn't the lemon tree, the missing bones of Ned's companions, the lies in the sotries of her past Dany has been told, the visions of the House of the Undying, or the plethora of wolf/stark symbolism around Dany, but Ned's own description of what he would do with a child who's hair/eye color would cause Robert to hate and hunt them.

this part really is the only part that gives me pause when thinking about R+L=D theory.. in Dany's vision everything seems either Targaryen or Stark ( that is if you count the vision with the blue eyed king that appears to be Stannis , Targareynish) . of course even this can be considered aspects of war of 5 kings that's vision Dany sees in the form of the woman getting raped.

the rest of the evidence though ( Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal , the timeline and the rest ), aren't exactly strong in my view. sure they can work together , but the fact that Dustin stayed behind or Ned didn't do a good job of providing for his niece that she fell in the hands of Viserys need way too much explanation that seem enough to rule out the theory , though not completely..

[Mourning Star]

6 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

This doesn't mean anything. Exile is an option and a ship to the Free Cities because it is the only place to go if you are exiled? And the part of the quote where he says a sweeter cup than your father served Rhaegar's children is because Ned viewed the murder of Rhaegar's children as a complete atrocity. Your later post provides me the evidence for it.

Ned explaining what he would do in a remarkably parallel situation seems relevant to me. You are free to disagree, I'm just using the text to make a case.

I think there are many situations where the text can be talking about two things at once. See below.

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It's not because Ned is remembering sending Daenerys to the Free Cities(which is contradicted by @Mister Smikes earlier statement), it's because Ned is a simply a decent person. 

I have no idea what you are referring to, but I agree Ned is a decent person. I do not agree that there isn't more too it. 

5 hours ago, EggBlue said:

this part really is the only part that gives me pause when thinking about R+L=D theory.. in Dany's vision everything seems either Targaryen or Stark ( that is if you count the vision with the blue eyed king that appears to be Stannis , Targareynish) . of course even this can be considered aspects of war of 5 kings that's vision Dany sees in the form of the woman getting raped.

the rest of the evidence though ( Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal , the timeline and the rest ), aren't exactly strong in my view. sure they can work together , but the fact that Dustin stayed behind or Ned didn't do a good job of providing for his niece that she fell in the hands of Viserys need way too much explanation that seem enough to rule out the theory , though not completely..

Any single detail can be easily dismissed, however the sum of all these details indicates there is something there. None of them provide proof, but there are a lot once you start looking.

Take this part of Dany's "wake the dragon" dream for instance:

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"… don't want to wake the dragon …"
The red door was so far ahead of her, and she could feel the icy breath behind, sweeping up on her. If it caught her she would die a death that was more than death, howling forever alone in the darkness. 

We see the red door from the house with the lemon tree.

And she is running from the cold and dark (winter) coming after her.

And she is afraid of howling alone.

Now, consider Ned's lesson to Arya and Sansa:

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She perched anxiously on the edge of her bed. "You are too young to be burdened with all my cares," he told her, "but you are also a Stark of Winterfell. You know our words."

"Winter is coming," Arya whispered.

"The hard cruel times," her father said. "We tasted them on the Trident, child, and when Bran fell. You were born in the long summer, sweet one, you've never known anything else, but now the winter is truly coming. Remember the sigil of our House, Arya."

"The direwolf," she said, thinking of Nymeria. She hugged her knees against her chest, suddenly afraid.

"Let me tell you something about wolves, child. When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. Summer is the time for squabbles. In winter, we must protect one another, keep each other warm, share our strengths. So if you must hate, Arya, hate those who would truly do us harm. Septa Mordane is a good woman, and Sansa … Sansa is your sister. You may be as different as the sun and the moon, but the same blood flows through both your hearts. You need her, as she needs you … and I need both of you, gods help me."

Winter is coming, just like the cold dark  chasing Dany. The icy cold is comparable to the white winds.

Direwolves, the arms of House Stark, howl. Dragons do not howl.

Dany fears being alone, and Ned says the lone wolf dies.

Now let's jump back to Dany's dream:

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The door loomed before her, the red door, so close, so close, the hall was a blur around her, the cold receding behind. And now the stone was gone and she flew across the Dothraki sea, high and higher, the green rippling beneath, and all that lived and breathed fled in terror from the shadow of her wings. She could smell home, she could see it, there, just beyond that door, green fields and great stone houses and arms to keep her warm, there. She threw open the door.

And she see's home, the land outside the red door on the house with the lemon tree,

She smells it (a sense wolves are rather notorious for) before she sees it.

And "arms to keep her warm"

The arms of House Stark, the direwolf, her family and a pack to survive the winter.

And I think the subtle clues like these ones go back all the way to Dany's first chapter.

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Somewhere beyond the sunset, across the narrow sea, lay a land of green hills and flowered plains and great rushing rivers, where towers of dark stone rose amidst magnificent blue-grey mountains, and armored knights rode to battle beneath the banners of their lords. The Dothraki called that land Rhaesh Andahli, the land of the Andals. In the Free Cities, they talked of Westeros and the Sunset Kingdoms. Her brother had a simpler name. "Our land," he called it. The words were like a prayer with him. If he said them enough, the gods were sure to hear. "Ours by blood right, taken from us by treachery, but ours still, ours forever. You do not steal from the dragon, oh, no. The dragon remembers."

And perhaps the dragon did remember, but Dany could not. 

Banners of their lords, sigil of their house, arms to keep her warm, it's really great stuff! And calls back to the discrepancies which appear right after this quote in Dany's first chapter. But, this is enough for one post I think.

Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't end with the part of Ned's lesson that possibly applies the most here:

You may be as different as the sun and the moon, but the same blood flows through both your hearts.

Just like Jon and Dany.